Saturday, 13 April 2024

Special Update 13/4/2024 Stocks, Reality Returning? An Iran v Israel War.

Baltic Dry Index. 1729 +39             Brent Crude 90.45

Spot Gold 2344                   U S 2 Year Yield 4.88 -0.05

If socialists understood economics, they wouldn't be socialist.

Friedrich August von Hayek.

There’s little need for me to comment this weekend, except to say that if the news services are forecasting an Iranian retaliatory attack on Israel this weekend it’s probably unlikely to happen.

Not that the USA, UK, EU and most of the rest of the G-20 don’t have enough troubles in 2024, without adding a much wider Middle East started by Israel.

This weekend’s music diversion is presented in a spirit of ending our never-ending, brutal wars.

Dow tumbles 475 points, S&P 500 suffers worst day since January as inflation woes erupt: Live updates

UPDATED FRI, APR 12 2024 4:18 PM EDT

Stocks sold off Friday as inflation and geopolitical worries once again dented investor sentiment on Wall Street. A broad decline in major bank shares also weighed on the market.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 475.84 points, or 1.24%, closing at 37,983.24. The S&P 500 tumbled 1.46% at 5,123.41. The Nasdaq Composite pulled back by 1.62% at 16,175.09.

At one point in the trading session, the Dow was down by nearly 582 points, or 1.51%. The S&P 500 slid as much as 1.75%.

Week to date, the broad market index dropped 1.56%, and the 30-stock Dow fell 2.37%. Meanwhile, the tech-heavy Nasdaq is 0.45% lower for the week.

JPMorgan Chase shares declined more than 6% after the banking giant posted its first-quarter results. The bank said net interest income, a key measure of what it makes through lending activities, could be a little short of what Wall Street analysts are expecting in 2024. CEO Jamie Dimon also warned about persistent inflationary pressures weighing on the economy. 

Wells Fargo slipped 0.4% after reporting its latest quarterly figures. Citigroup dropped 1.7% despite posting a revenue beat.

Oil prices continued their rise on reports that Israel is preparing for a direct attack by Iran this weekend, in what would be the biggest escalation of tensions in the region since the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war last October. U.S. crude settled at $85.66 a barrel after rising above $87.

That, coupled with fresh U.S. imports data, added fuel to inflation concerns that have put pressure on the market.

“We’re getting further risk off sentiment heading into the weekend. You’re seeing there’s a flight to safety trade, with the dollar stronger, and we’re seeing equities sell off,” said Rob Haworth, U.S. Bank Wealth Management senior investment strategist.

“That comes on the heels of the inflation data that tells us the economy’s still pretty hot and inflation is sticky; that’s what led [investors] to really adjust their expectations around the Fed. … That’s some of why they’re getting cautious headed into the weekend,” said Haworth.

Consumers are also growing worried about the persistent inflationary pressures. The consumer sentiment index for April came in at 77.9, below the Dow Jones consensus estimate of 79.9, according to the University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers. Year-ahead and long-run inflation expectations also ticked up, reflecting frustrations over sticky inflation.

Stock market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)

Jamie Dimon warns that inflation, wars and Fed policy pose major threats ahead

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warned Friday that multiple challenges, primarily inflation and war, threaten an otherwise positive economic backdrop.

“Many economic indicators continue to be favorable,” the head of the largest U.S. bank by assets said in announcing first-quarter earnings results. “However, looking ahead, we remain alert to a number of significant uncertain forces.”

An “unsettling” global landscape, including “terrible wars and violence,” is one such factor introducing uncertainty into both JPMorgan’s business and the broader economy, Dimon said.

Additionally, he noted “persistent inflationary pressures, which may likely continue.”

Dimon also noted the Federal Reserve’s efforts to draw down the assets it is holding on its $7.5 trillion balance sheet.

“We have never truly experienced the full effect of quantitative tightening on this scale,” Dimon said.

The latter comment references the nickname given to a process the Fed is employing to reduce the level of Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities it is holding.

The central bank is allowing up to $95 billion in proceeds from maturing bonds to roll off each month rather than reinvesting them, resulting in a $1.5 trillion contraction in holdings since June 2022. The program is part of the Fed’s efforts to tighten financial conditions in hopes of alleviating inflationary pressures.

Though the Fed is expected to slow down the pace of quantitative tightening in the next few months, the balance sheet will continue to contract.

Taken together, Dimon said the three issues pose substantial unknowns ahead.

“We do not know how these factors will play out, but we must prepare the Firm for a wide range of potential environments to ensure that we can consistently be there for clients,” he said.

Dimon’s comments come amid renewed worries over inflation. Though the pace of price increases has come well off the boil from its June 2022 peak, data so far in 2024 has shown inflation consistently higher than expectations and well above the Fed’s 2% annual goal.

As a result, markets have had to dramatically shift their expectations for interest rate reductions. Whereas markets at the beginning of the year had been looking for up to seven cuts, or 1.75 percentage points, the expectation now is for only one or two that would total at most half a percentage point.

Higher rates are generally considered positive for banks as long as they don’t lead to a recession. JPMorgan on Friday reported an 8% boost in revenue in the first quarter, attributable to stronger interest income and higher loan balances. However, the bank warned net interest income for this year could be slightly below what Wall Street is expecting and shares were off nearly 2% in premarket trading.

Jamie Dimon warns that inflation, wars and Fed policy pose major threats ahead (cnbc.com)

U.S. crude oil gains as Israel reportedly prepares for attack by Iran this weekend

Crude oil futures rose Friday on reports that Israel is preparing for a direct attack by Iran this weekend, in what would be the biggest escalation of Middle East tensions since the start of the Israel-Hamas war last October.

The West Texas Intermediate contract for May delivery hit a session high of $87.67, while June Brent futures rallied to $92.18. Exxon Mobil stock hit an all-time intraday high of $123.74 as the oil rally lifted the energy sector.

U.S. crude ultimately gained 64 cents, or 0.75%, at settle at $85.66 a barrel, while the global benchmark settled at $90.45, up 0.79% or 71 cents.

Israel is preparing for a direct attack by Iran on southern or northern Israel as soon as Friday or Saturday, a person familiar with the matter told The Wall Street Journal. A person briefed by Iran’s leadership told the Journal that no final decision has been made, though plans for a strike are under discussion.

People familiar with Western intelligence assessments told Bloomberg News that an attack by Iran, or its proxies, with drones and missiles against Israel could come as soon as the next 48 hours.

The U.S. embassy in Jerusalem on Thursday restricted government employees and their families from personal travel outside Tel Aviv, Jerusalem and Beersheba “out of an abundance of caution” until further notice.

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has vowed to punish Israel for a missile attack an Islamic Republic diplomatic building in Damascus, Syria, last week that killed seven Iranian military officials.

----Israel has warned Iran it will strike back against the Islamic Republic if Tehran attacks Israel.

“If Iran attacks from its territory, Israel will react and attack in Iran,” Foreign Minister Israel Katz said on the social media platform X on Wednesday, tagging Khamenei.

Brent crude oil futures could spike to $100 a barrel if Iran directly attacks Israel, according to Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy and a former senior energy official in the Bush administration. If the escalation leads to a disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical trade route for oil, prices could surge to $120 or $130 a barrel, McNally told CNBC.

Crude oil prices today: WTI, Brent rise as Israel braces for Iran attack (cnbc.com)

Finally, more on EV madness/reality. Get ready for EV battery recycling fires, coming soon to a neighbourhood near you. Approx. 5 minutes.

EV and Lithium Ion battery recycling is DIFFICULT, DANGEROUS and TOXIC | MGUY Australia

EV and Lithium Ion battery recycling is DIFFICULT, DANGEROUS and TOXIC | MGUY Australia (youtube.com)

Another roadblock to convincing Americans to buy an EV: plunging resale values

April 11, 2024

The slowdown in electric vehicle sales continues to snowball, with plummeting resale values acting as another roadblock.

Over the past year, used EV values have dropped faster than their gas-powered counterparts, car search engine iSeeCars said. The average price for a used electric vehicle fell by up to 32% while the average for a gas model slipped by 3.6%.

Tumbling resale values aggravate buyers’ worries that an EV isn’t worth the price or the potential headaches. They already worry about EVs' high prices, charging, lack of choice, and driving range. Now, they fear when it comes time to sell the vehicle, they’re not going to get much back.

“Consumers didn’t used to be worried about the resale value of an EV, but (Tesla chief executive Elon) Musk cutting prices made people feel like they owe $50,000 on their Tesla and now, it’s only worth $40,000,” said Pat Ryan, chief executive of free car-shopping app CoPilot. "When people see the value of an EV drop so dramatically, it creates a new problem."

Musk aggressively sliced more than 20% off new Tesla prices to try to maintain market share in an increasingly competitive EV market. Those price declines pressured the entire used EV market, but especially his own cars. Four of the most significant price drops in the overall used market between 2023 and 2024 was a Tesla, iSeeCars said.

“Elon’s desire to maintain new Tesla sales through price cuts had a very destructive impact on the brand’s residual values,” said Karl Brauer, iSeeCars’ executive analyst. “Used Teslas lost more value than any other brand, and with a 28.9% decline they lost more than twice as much value as second-place Alfa Romeo.”

More

Another roadblock to convincing Americans to buy an EV: plunging resale values (msn.com)

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.        

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,  inflation/recession now needs an entire section of its own.

UK economy's growth in February points to exit from recession

By Andy Bruce

April 12 (Reuters) - Britain is on course to exit its shallow recession after economic output grew for a second month in a row in February and January's reading was revised higher, official data showed on Friday.

Gross domestic product expanded by 0.1% in monthly terms in February, as expected in a Reuters poll of economists.

January's reading was revised to show growth of 0.3%, up from 0.2% earlier, the Office for National Statistics said.

Britain's economy fell into recession in the second half of last year, leaving Prime Minister Rishi Sunak with a challenge to reassure voters that the economy is safe with him before an election expected later this year.

"These figures are a welcome sign that the economy is turning a corner," finance minister Jeremy Hunt said in response to Friday's data.

Business surveys suggest growth continued in March.

Despite the tentative recovery, GDP remains below its level of June 2023, before the latest downturn took place, and has stayed broadly flat since early 2022.

"While recession concerns are disappearing into the rear-view mirror, the longer-term outlook is still difficult, with the lagged impact of earlier interest rate hikes and chronic supply side constraints likely to continue limiting the UK’s growth potential," Suren Thiru, Economics Director at ICAEW, an accountancy industry body, said.

Economic output was 0.2% lower than its level in February 2023 - a little better than the 0.4% gap predicted by economists.

The services sector which dominates the economy grew by 0.1% in monthly terms, as expected. But manufacturing output exceeded forecasts, rising 1.2% on the month. Construction sank 1.9%, the biggest drop in just over a year.

UK economy's growth in February points to exit from recession | Reuters

German inflation eases to lowest in almost three years

By Maria Martinez 

BERLIN, April 12 (Reuters) - German inflation eased in March, helped by a drop in energy and food prices, final data from the federal statistics office showed on Friday.

Inflation in Europe's largest economy slackened to 2.3%, its lowest level since June 2021. German consumer prices, harmonised to compare with other European Union countries, had risen by 2.7% year-on-year in February.

Core inflation in Germany, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, was at 3.3% in March, down from 3.4% in February.

Underlying inflation is closely watched by the European Central Bank to gauge the durability of price pressures.

"In March 2024, food was cheaper for consumers than a year before for the first time since February 2015," said Ruth Brand, president of the statistics office. Food prices went down 0.7% year-on-year.

Energy prices were 2.7% lower in March than in the same month of the previous year. Since the beginning of the year, energy prices have consistently fallen, dragging headline inflation down.

However, core inflation has barely slowed.

Germany's inflation is supported by a rising trend in services, whose prices are increasingly dominated by a sharp jump in wage costs, as well as a rise in rents.

Prices for services overall were 3.7% higher in March on the year. Rents, with a price increase of 2.1% on the year, were significant for the price development for services.

While services prices showed a strong increase, the prices for goods increased by 1.0% on the year, below the increase seen in overall inflation.

German inflation eases to lowest in almost three years | Reuters

Covid-19 Corner     

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

Bombshell emails show a top Fauci aide used his personal Gmail to 'intentionally' HIDE discussions about COVID origins... and would delete anything 'incriminating'

April 11, 2024

New documents show that Dr. Anthony Fauci's top U.S. health aide intentionally tried to hide his discussions about the origins of COIVD-19 by using his personal email. 

Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Pandemic Chairman Brad Wenstrup, R-Ohio, claimed a whistleblower provided him new bombshell materials obtained by DailyMail.com.

The unnamed whistleblower revealed emails showing that Dr. David Morens - Fauci's top aide at the National Institutes of Health - allegedly used his personal Gmail account to discuss the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 to skirt federal transparency laws.

At the time, Morens' official government work email would have been subject to Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests that could have publicized his day-to-day communications.

Wenstrup says that Morens used Gmail to 'intentionally [subvert] federal transparency laws to shield discussions related to the origins of COVID-19.'

The whistleblower-provided emails show Morens using an '@gmail.com' account to correspond with Dr. Peter Daszak, head of EcoHealth Alliance, a research nonprofit, apparently regarding a government research grant. 

Republicans previously revealed that EcoHealth and the Wuhan Institute of Virology, in partnership with the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), submitted a proposal to federal officials seeking funding to create a novel coronavirus in 2018

And Wenstrup has accused EcoHealth of using taxpayer dollars 'to fund dangerous gain-of-function research at the Wuhan Institute of Virology.' 

'These emails raise serious concerns about federal health officials potentially covering up the pandemic’s origin,' Wenstrup stated Thursday.

The subject line of one of the messages between Morens' personal email and EcoHealth's Daszak includes a reference to a National Institute of Health (NIH) grant proposal that provided $661,980 for a 2019 project titled 'Understanding the Risk of Bat Coronavirus Emergence.' 

Another subject line from his personal email reads 'COVID-19 update (312): China, SARS-CoV2 origin, animal reservoir, WHO mission,' indicating the two were discussing the origins of the disease.

A third email from Morens had a subject line that referenced 'our suspended R01,' possibly indicating that funding for the bat coronavirus research project was stopped at some point. 

However, during his transcribed interview with the Select Subcommittee in January, Morens 'denied deleting any federal COVID-19 origins records,' according to the lawmaker.

Morens also admitted previously to the committee in a closed interview that 'I will delete anything I don’t want to see in the New York Times.'

More

Bombshell emails show a top Fauci aide used his personal Gmail to 'intentionally' HIDE discussions about COVID origins... and would delete anything 'incriminating' (msn.com)

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.

Varta changes restructuring plans as core unit struggles, shares plunge

By Reuters 

April 12 (Reuters) - German battery maker Varta AG (VAR1.DE), opens new tab late on Thursday said it had to change restructuring plans after its core business underperformed, and a cyber attack, that halted production for weeks, made its financial situation even worse.

This sent its shares down 30% at the Frankfurt open on Friday.

The firm had agreed restructuring plans with majority shareholder Michael Tojner a year ago after key client Apple (AAPL.O), opens new tab cut production of its AirPods headphones.

Varta, which makes batteries for headphones, received a 50 million cash injection from Tojner at the time as well as an assurance from auditors KPMG that the firm could return to profitable growth.

Volatile orders, particularly of small-format lithium ion cells, as well as supply chain problems and aggressive pricing by competitors have since cast doubt on that assurance in the mid-term, Varta said.

The company had expected to return to profitable growth by the end of 2026 under its original plans.

Varta, which in February postponed the publication of its 2023 financials following a cyber attack, is in the process of signing a standstill agreement with its creditors, it said in a statement.

Rothschild & Co has been mandated to explore recapitalisation options, it added.

Varta changes restructuring plans as core unit struggles, shares plunge | Reuters

Finally, our latest new section, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

This weekend’s music diversion. Something a little different from 1563, for our pitiless war-torn world. Approx. 6 minutes.

Serafino Razzi - O Vergin Santa - Eva Zaïcik · Deborah Cachet · Le Poème Harmonique

Serafino Razzi - O Vergin Santa - Eva Zaïcik · Deborah Cachet · Le Poème Harmonique (youtube.com)

This weekend’s chess update.  Approx. 12 minutes.

No One Dismantles The Sicilian Defense Like Bobby Fischer!

No One Dismantles The Sicilian Defense Like Bobby Fischer! (youtube.com)

This weekend’s final YouTube diversion, trucks v bridges.   Approx. 15 minutes.

15 Minutes of Trucks Crashing Into Bridges

15 Minutes of Trucks Crashing Into Bridges (youtube.com)

With the exception only of the period of the gold standard, practically all governments of history have used their exclusive power to issue money to defraud and plunder the people.

Friedrich August von Hayek.

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