Baltic
Dry Index. 1729 +39 Brent Crude 90.45
Spot
Gold 2344 U S 2
Year Yield 4.88 -0.05
If socialists understood economics, they wouldn't be socialist.
Friedrich August von Hayek.
There’s
little need for me to comment this weekend, except to say that if the news
services are forecasting an Iranian retaliatory attack on Israel this weekend
it’s probably unlikely to happen.
Not
that the USA, UK, EU and most of the rest of the G-20 don’t have enough
troubles in 2024, without adding a much wider Middle East started by Israel.
This
weekend’s music diversion is presented in a spirit of ending our never-ending, brutal wars.
Dow tumbles 475 points, S&P 500 suffers worst day
since January as inflation woes erupt: Live updates
UPDATED FRI, APR 12 2024 4:18 PM EDT
Stocks sold
off Friday as inflation and geopolitical worries once again dented investor
sentiment on Wall Street. A broad decline in major bank shares also weighed on
the market.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid
475.84 points, or 1.24%, closing at 37,983.24. The S&P 500 tumbled
1.46% at 5,123.41. The Nasdaq Composite pulled
back by 1.62% at 16,175.09.
At one point in the trading
session, the Dow was down by nearly 582 points, or 1.51%. The S&P 500 slid
as much as 1.75%.
Week to date, the broad market
index dropped 1.56%, and the 30-stock Dow fell 2.37%. Meanwhile, the tech-heavy
Nasdaq is 0.45% lower for the week.
JPMorgan
Chase shares
declined more than 6% after the banking giant
posted its first-quarter results. The bank said net interest income,
a key measure of what it makes through lending activities, could be a little
short of what Wall Street analysts are expecting in 2024. CEO Jamie Dimon also
warned about persistent inflationary pressures weighing on the economy.
Wells
Fargo slipped
0.4% after reporting its latest quarterly figures. Citigroup dropped
1.7% despite posting a revenue beat.
Oil prices continued their rise
on reports that Israel is preparing for a direct attack by Iran this weekend,
in what would be the biggest escalation of tensions in the region since the
outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war last October. U.S. crude settled
at $85.66 a barrel after rising above $87.
That, coupled with fresh U.S.
imports data, added fuel to inflation concerns that have put pressure on the
market.
“We’re getting further risk off
sentiment heading into the weekend. You’re seeing there’s a flight to safety
trade, with the dollar stronger, and we’re seeing equities sell off,” said Rob
Haworth, U.S. Bank Wealth Management senior investment strategist.
“That comes on the heels of the
inflation data that tells us the economy’s still pretty hot and inflation is
sticky; that’s what led [investors] to really adjust their expectations around
the Fed. … That’s some of why they’re getting cautious headed into the
weekend,” said Haworth.
Consumers are also growing
worried about the persistent inflationary pressures. The consumer sentiment
index for April came in at 77.9, below the Dow Jones consensus estimate of
79.9, according to the University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers. Year-ahead
and long-run inflation expectations also ticked up, reflecting frustrations
over sticky inflation.
Stock
market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)
Jamie Dimon warns that inflation, wars and Fed
policy pose major threats ahead
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warned Friday that
multiple challenges, primarily inflation and war, threaten an otherwise
positive economic backdrop.
“Many economic indicators continue
to be favorable,” the head of the largest U.S. bank by assets said in announcing first-quarter earnings results.
“However, looking ahead, we remain alert to a number of significant uncertain
forces.”
An “unsettling” global landscape, including “terrible wars and violence,”
is one such factor introducing uncertainty into both JPMorgan’s business and
the broader economy, Dimon said.
Additionally, he noted “persistent
inflationary pressures, which may likely continue.”
Dimon also noted the Federal
Reserve’s efforts to draw down the assets it is holding on its $7.5
trillion balance sheet.
“We have never truly experienced
the full effect of quantitative tightening on this scale,” Dimon said.
The latter comment references the
nickname given to a process
the Fed is employing to reduce the level of Treasurys and
mortgage-backed securities it is holding.
The central bank is allowing up to $95 billion in proceeds from maturing
bonds to roll off each month rather than reinvesting them, resulting in a $1.5
trillion contraction in holdings since June 2022. The program is part of the
Fed’s efforts to tighten financial conditions in hopes of alleviating
inflationary pressures.
Though the Fed is expected to slow
down the pace of quantitative tightening in the next few months, the balance
sheet will continue to contract.
Taken together, Dimon said the
three issues pose substantial unknowns ahead.
“We do not know how these factors
will play out, but we must prepare the Firm for a wide range of potential
environments to ensure that we can consistently be there for clients,” he said.
Dimon’s comments come amid renewed
worries over inflation. Though the pace of price increases has come well off
the boil from its June 2022 peak, data so far in 2024 has shown inflation
consistently higher than expectations and well above the Fed’s
2% annual goal.
As a result, markets have had to
dramatically shift their expectations for interest rate reductions. Whereas
markets at the beginning of the year had been looking for up to seven cuts, or
1.75 percentage points, the expectation now is for only one or two that would
total at most half a percentage point.
Higher rates are generally
considered positive for banks as long as they don’t lead to a recession. JPMorgan on
Friday reported
an 8% boost in revenue in the first quarter, attributable to
stronger interest income and higher loan balances. However, the bank warned net
interest income for this year could be slightly below what Wall Street is
expecting and shares were off nearly 2% in premarket trading.
Jamie
Dimon warns that inflation, wars and Fed policy pose major threats ahead
(cnbc.com)
U.S. crude oil gains as Israel reportedly prepares
for attack by Iran this weekend
Crude oil futures rose Friday on reports that
Israel is preparing for a direct attack by Iran this weekend, in what would be
the biggest escalation of Middle East tensions since the start of the
Israel-Hamas war last October.
The West Texas
Intermediate contract
for May delivery hit a session high of $87.67, while June Brent futures rallied
to $92.18. Exxon Mobil stock
hit an all-time intraday high of $123.74 as the oil rally lifted the energy
sector.
U.S. crude ultimately gained 64 cents, or 0.75%, at settle at $85.66 a
barrel, while the global benchmark settled at $90.45, up 0.79% or 71 cents.
Israel is preparing for a direct
attack by Iran on southern or northern Israel as soon as Friday or Saturday, a person familiar with the matter told The
Wall Street Journal. A person briefed by Iran’s leadership told the Journal
that no final decision has been made, though plans for a strike are under
discussion.
People familiar with Western
intelligence assessments told Bloomberg News that an attack by Iran, or
its proxies, with drones and missiles against Israel could come as soon as the
next 48 hours.
The U.S. embassy in Jerusalem on
Thursday restricted government employees and their
families from personal travel outside Tel Aviv, Jerusalem and Beersheba “out of
an abundance of caution” until further notice.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has
vowed to punish Israel for a missile attack an Islamic Republic diplomatic
building in Damascus, Syria, last week that killed seven Iranian military
officials.
----Israel has warned Iran it will strike back against the Islamic
Republic if Tehran attacks Israel.
“If Iran attacks from its
territory, Israel will react and attack in Iran,” Foreign Minister Israel Katz
said on the social media platform X on Wednesday,
tagging Khamenei.
Brent crude oil futures could spike to $100 a barrel if Iran directly attacks Israel, according
to Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy and a former senior energy official
in the Bush administration. If the escalation leads to a disruption in the
Strait of Hormuz, a critical trade route for oil, prices could surge to $120 or
$130 a barrel, McNally told CNBC.
Crude oil
prices today: WTI, Brent rise as Israel braces for Iran attack (cnbc.com)
Finally,
more on EV madness/reality. Get ready for EV battery recycling fires, coming
soon to a neighbourhood near you. Approx. 5 minutes.
EV
and Lithium Ion battery recycling is DIFFICULT, DANGEROUS and TOXIC | MGUY
Australia
Another
roadblock to convincing Americans to buy an EV: plunging resale values
April
11, 2024
The slowdown in electric vehicle sales continues
to snowball, with plummeting resale values acting as another roadblock.
Over the past year, used EV
values have dropped faster than their gas-powered counterparts, car search
engine iSeeCars said. The average price for a used electric vehicle fell by up
to 32% while the average for a gas model slipped by 3.6%.
Tumbling resale values aggravate buyers’
worries that an EV isn’t worth the price or the potential
headaches. They already worry about EVs' high prices, charging, lack of choice,
and driving range. Now, they fear when it comes time to sell the vehicle,
they’re not going to get much back.
“Consumers didn’t used to be worried about the
resale value of an EV, but (Tesla chief executive Elon) Musk cutting prices made
people feel like they owe $50,000 on their Tesla and now, it’s only worth $40,000,” said Pat Ryan, chief executive of free car-shopping app
CoPilot. "When people see the value of an EV drop so dramatically, it
creates a new problem."
Musk aggressively sliced more
than 20% off new Tesla prices to try to
maintain market share in an
increasingly competitive EV market. Those
price declines pressured the entire used EV market, but especially his own
cars. Four of the most significant price drops in the overall used market
between 2023 and 2024 was a Tesla, iSeeCars said.
“Elon’s desire to maintain new Tesla sales
through price cuts had a very destructive impact on the brand’s residual
values,” said Karl Brauer, iSeeCars’ executive analyst. “Used Teslas lost more
value than any other brand, and with a 28.9% decline they lost more than twice
as much value as second-place Alfa Romeo.”
More
Another
roadblock to convincing Americans to buy an EV: plunging resale values
(msn.com)
Global
Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given our Magic Money
Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation/recession now needs an entire
section of its own.
UK economy's growth in February points to exit from recession
By Andy Bruce April 12, 2024 7:44 AM
GMT+1
April 12 (Reuters) - Britain is on course to exit its shallow recession
after economic output grew for a second month in a row in February and
January's reading was revised higher, official data showed on Friday.
Gross domestic product expanded by 0.1% in monthly terms in February, as
expected in a Reuters poll of economists.
January's reading was revised to show growth of 0.3%, up from 0.2%
earlier, the Office for National Statistics said.
Britain's economy fell into recession in the second half of last year,
leaving Prime Minister Rishi Sunak with a challenge to reassure voters that the
economy is safe with him before an election expected later this year.
"These figures are a welcome sign that the economy is turning a
corner," finance minister Jeremy Hunt said in response to Friday's data.
Business surveys suggest growth continued in March.
Despite the tentative recovery, GDP remains below its level of June
2023, before the latest downturn took place, and has stayed broadly flat since
early 2022.
"While recession concerns are disappearing into the rear-view
mirror, the longer-term outlook is still difficult, with the lagged impact of
earlier interest rate hikes and chronic supply side constraints likely to
continue limiting the UK’s growth potential," Suren Thiru, Economics
Director at ICAEW, an accountancy industry body, said.
Economic output was 0.2% lower than its level in February 2023 - a
little better than the 0.4% gap predicted by economists.
The services sector which dominates the economy grew by 0.1% in monthly
terms, as expected. But manufacturing output exceeded forecasts, rising 1.2% on
the month. Construction sank 1.9%, the biggest drop in just over a year.
UK economy's growth in February points to exit from
recession | Reuters
German inflation eases to lowest in almost three years
By Maria Martinez April 12, 2024 7:25 AM GMT+1
BERLIN, April 12 (Reuters) - German inflation eased in March, helped by
a drop in energy and food prices, final data from the federal statistics office
showed on Friday.
Inflation in Europe's largest economy slackened to 2.3%, its lowest
level since June 2021. German consumer prices, harmonised to compare with other
European Union countries, had risen by 2.7% year-on-year in February.
Core inflation in Germany, which excludes volatile food and energy
prices, was at 3.3% in March, down from 3.4% in February.
Underlying inflation is closely watched by the European Central Bank to
gauge the durability of price pressures.
"In March 2024, food was cheaper for consumers than a year before
for the first time since February 2015," said Ruth Brand, president of the
statistics office. Food prices went down 0.7% year-on-year.
Energy prices were 2.7% lower in March than in the same month of the
previous year. Since the beginning of the year, energy prices have consistently
fallen, dragging headline inflation down.
However, core inflation has barely slowed.
Germany's inflation is supported by a rising trend in services, whose
prices are increasingly dominated by a sharp jump in wage costs, as well as a
rise in rents.
Prices for services overall were 3.7% higher in March on the year.
Rents, with a price increase of 2.1% on the year, were significant for the
price development for services.
While services prices showed a strong increase, the prices for goods
increased by 1.0% on the year, below the increase seen in overall inflation.
German inflation eases to lowest in almost three years
| Reuters
Covid-19 Corner
This section will
continue until it becomes unneeded.
Bombshell
emails show a top Fauci aide used his personal Gmail to 'intentionally' HIDE
discussions about COVID origins... and would delete anything 'incriminating'
April 11, 2024
New documents show that Dr. Anthony Fauci's top
U.S. health aide intentionally tried to hide his discussions about the origins
of COIVD-19 by using his personal email.
Select
Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Pandemic Chairman Brad Wenstrup, R-Ohio, claimed a
whistleblower provided him new bombshell materials obtained by DailyMail.com.
The
unnamed whistleblower revealed emails showing that Dr. David Morens - Fauci's
top aide at the National Institutes of Health - allegedly used his personal
Gmail account to discuss the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 to skirt federal
transparency laws.
At the
time, Morens' official government work email would have been subject to Freedom
of Information Act (FOIA) requests that could have publicized his day-to-day
communications.
Wenstrup
says that Morens used Gmail to 'intentionally [subvert] federal transparency
laws to shield discussions related to the origins of COVID-19.'
The whistleblower-provided emails show Morens
using an '@gmail.com' account to correspond with Dr. Peter Daszak, head of
EcoHealth Alliance, a research nonprofit, apparently regarding a government
research grant.
Republicans
previously revealed that EcoHealth and the Wuhan Institute of Virology, in
partnership with the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases
(NIAID), submitted a proposal to federal officials seeking funding to create a novel coronavirus in 2018.
And
Wenstrup has accused EcoHealth of using taxpayer dollars 'to fund dangerous
gain-of-function research at the Wuhan Institute of Virology.'
'These
emails raise serious concerns about federal health officials potentially
covering up the pandemic’s origin,' Wenstrup stated Thursday.
The
subject line of one of the messages between Morens' personal email and
EcoHealth's Daszak includes a reference to a National Institute of Health
(NIH) grant proposal that provided $661,980 for a 2019 project titled 'Understanding the
Risk of Bat Coronavirus Emergence.'
Another
subject line from his personal email reads 'COVID-19 update (312): China,
SARS-CoV2 origin, animal reservoir, WHO mission,' indicating the two were
discussing the origins of the disease.
A third
email from Morens had a subject line that referenced 'our suspended R01,'
possibly indicating that funding for the bat coronavirus research project was
stopped at some point.
However,
during his transcribed interview with the Select Subcommittee in January,
Morens 'denied deleting any federal COVID-19 origins records,' according to the
lawmaker.
Morens also admitted previously to the
committee in a closed interview that 'I will delete anything I don’t want to
see in the New York Times.'
More
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Varta changes restructuring plans as core unit struggles,
shares plunge
By Reuters April 12, 2024 8:26 AM
GMT+1
April 12 (Reuters) - German
battery maker Varta AG (VAR1.DE), opens new tab late on Thursday said
it had to change restructuring plans after its core business underperformed,
and a cyber attack, that halted production for weeks, made its financial
situation even worse.
This sent its shares down 30% at the Frankfurt open on Friday.
The firm had agreed restructuring plans with majority
shareholder Michael Tojner a year ago after key client Apple (AAPL.O), opens new tab cut production of its
AirPods headphones.
Varta, which makes batteries for headphones,
received a 50 million cash injection from Tojner at the time as well as an
assurance from auditors KPMG that the firm could return to profitable growth.
Volatile orders, particularly of small-format
lithium ion cells, as well as supply chain problems and aggressive pricing by
competitors have since cast doubt on that assurance in the mid-term, Varta
said.
The company had expected to return to profitable
growth by the end of 2026 under its original plans.
Varta, which in February postponed the publication
of its 2023 financials following a cyber attack, is in the process of signing a
standstill agreement with its creditors, it said in a statement.
Rothschild & Co has been mandated to explore
recapitalisation options, it added.
Varta changes restructuring plans as core unit
struggles, shares plunge | Reuters
Finally,
our latest new section, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP
compared.
World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
This
weekend’s music diversion. Something a little different from 1563, for our pitiless
war-torn world. Approx. 6 minutes.
Serafino
Razzi - O Vergin Santa - Eva Zaïcik · Deborah Cachet · Le Poème Harmonique
Serafino Razzi - O Vergin Santa - Eva Zaïcik · Deborah
Cachet · Le Poème Harmonique (youtube.com)
This
weekend’s chess update. Approx. 12 minutes.
No
One Dismantles The Sicilian Defense Like Bobby Fischer!
No One Dismantles The Sicilian Defense Like Bobby
Fischer! (youtube.com)
This
weekend’s final YouTube diversion, trucks v bridges. Approx. 15 minutes.
15
Minutes of Trucks Crashing Into Bridges
15 Minutes of Trucks Crashing Into Bridges
(youtube.com)
With the exception only of the period of the gold standard, practically all governments of history have used their exclusive power to issue money to defraud and plunder the people.
Friedrich August von Hayek.
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