Baltic Dry Index. 1439 +58 Brent Crude 95.05
Spot Gold 1931 US 2 Year Yield 5.05 +0.03
September 19, 1893 New
Zealand becomes the first country to give women the vote.
The battle was still not over. New anti-suffrage petitions were
circulated, and some members of the Legislative Council petitioned the governor
to withhold his consent. In a battle of the buttonholes, anti-suffragists gave
their parliamentary supporters red camellias to wear.
Finally, on 19 September, Lord Glasgow signed the bill into law. All
women who were 'British subjects' and aged 21 and over, including Māori, were
now eligible to vote (the nationhood requirement excluded some groups, such as
Chinese women).
Brief history - Women and the vote | NZHistory, New
Zealand history online
It is day one of the Fed’s meeting to set/pause their key interest rate. Day five of the US auto strike set to escalate on Friday.
What, if anything, will Fed Chairman Powell and his gang make of the auto strike? What, if anything, will the Fedster’s make of Student Loan repayments restarting next month?
This week has the BOE and Swiss National Bank
also making interest rate decisions.
Asia markets fall ahead of Australian central
bank minutes
UPDATED MON, SEP 18 2023 11:07 PM
EDT
Asia-Pacific
markets fell across the board as traders look to minutes from the Reserve Bank
of Australia for its policy meeting on Sept. 5.
The minutes will
detail how the RBA came to hold its benchmark policy rate at 4.1%, the third
straight month that it has done so.
In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 slid
0.23% in early trade, while both South Korea’s Kospi and Kosdaq were down 0.22%
and 0.53% respectively.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 slumped
0.94% upon its return from a public holiday, while the Topix saw a smaller loss
of 0.26%.
In contrast,
futures for Hong Kong’s Hang
Seng index stood at 17,965, pointing to a positive open
compared with the HSI’s last close of 17,930.55.
Overnight in the U.S., all three major indexes
were little changed as traders awaited the U.S. Federal Reserve’s rate decision
due Thursday morning in Asia.
Traders are assigning a 99%
chance that the central bank stays put when it releases its rate decision,
according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool.
The S&P 500 inched
up 0.07%, while the Nasdaq
Composite eked out a 0.01% gain. The 30-stock Dow Jones Industrial Average edged
up 0.02%.
RBA concerned that inflation is too
high, but will allow more time for tightening effects to take hold
Australia’s central
bank is still of the position that inflation in the country is “too high,” but
opted to hold its benchmark policy rate at 4.1% in its last meeting.
Minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia revealed
that the board debated between raising rates by 25 basis points, or leaving it
unchanged.
In the end, the
case for leaving the rate unchanged was the stronger one, with the RBA saying
“the recent flow of data was consistent with inflation returning to target
within a reasonable timeframe while the cash rate remained at its present
level.”
The bank also added
that more time should be allowed to see the effects of monetary policy
tightening since May 2022.
However, the RBA
also said that some further tightening in policy may be required, should
inflation prove more persistent than expected.
Asia
stock markets today: Live updates (cnbc.com)
Marketmind: No calm
before the central bank storm
September 19, 2023
5:31 AM GMT+1
A look at the day ahead in European and
global markets from Kevin Buckland
Europe yet again wakes up to a swathe
of red in Asian markets on Tuesday. But how big of an impact it would have is
to be seen.
The biggest eyesore
is the more than 1% plunge in Japan's Nikkei share average (.N225), but closer inspection shows that
more than half of that is from a handful of chip- and AI-related shares with
big weightings. Japanese markets were closed on Monday for a national holiday,
so are only now catching up on the TSMC news.
The other key theme
remains China's ailing economy, with the property market at the epicentre.
Trading was volatile, with Hong Kong's property share subindex (.HSMPI), for example, swinging from an
early 1.7% loss to be slightly up by lunchtime.
There were some
hopeful signs, as embattled Chinese developer Country Garden (2007.HK) won approval from creditors
to extend repayment on an onshore bond, according to sources - the last in a batch it was
seeking extensions for.
Peer Sunac China
Holdings (1918.HK) got creditor approval for its $9 billion
offshore debt restructuring plan, the first green light of a debt overhaul by a
major Chinese developer.
Those developments
didn't help Australia's mining heavyweights (.AXMM) from sagging amid the
deteriorating demand outlook, dragging down the local stock benchmark (.AXJO)
All the drama has disturbed what was
meant to be a quiet run-up to a string of central bank policy decisions this
week, starting with China's setting of the loan price rate tomorrow, which will
be followed the same day by the Federal Reserve's outcome.
Thursday is packed, with the Bank of
England, Swiss National Bank, Riksbank, and Norges Bank. Friday brings a
closely watched Bank of Japan announcement, following central bank boss Kazuo
Ueda's sudden hawkish tilt in a Yomiuri newspaper interview this month, where
he seemed to suggest an end to negative rates could come this year.
Certainly FX and rates markets are
taking notice of the calendar, with the dollar and Treasury yields content to
trade in tight ranges just below recent highs.
More
Marketmind:
No calm before the central bank storm | Reuters
In auto strike news, so far so good for both
sides, but will the strike widen out on Friday?
Canada next? Who will blink
first? How inflationary will the final settlement be? Recessionary? What will the Fedster’s make of
the new US wage strikes era?
UAW will strike at additional U.S. auto
plants if ‘serious progress’ isn’t made by noon Friday
DETROIT – The United Auto Workers union will
announce additional strikes at General Motors, Ford Motor and Stellantis plants
if the sides don’t make “serious progress” in negotiations by noon ET Friday,
UAW President Shawn Fain announced Monday night.
The timing of the additional plants
would come just over a week after the union announced targeted strikes at
assembly plants for each of the “Big Three” Detroit automakers, sending about
12,700 workers to picket lines.
“Autoworkers have waited long enough to make things right at the Big
Three. We’re not waiting around, and we’re not messing around. So, noon on
Friday, September 22nd is a new deadline,” Fain said in a
video released online by the union.
Fain previously said the union
planned to increase
the work stoppages, based on how negotiations with the companies
were going. The announcement follows the union meeting with each of the
automakers since the targeted strikes began Friday.
Unlike the original contract deadlines, Fain did not say tentative
agreements needed to be reached at the companies to avoid additional strikes,
just “serious progress.” A union spokesman did not immediately respond for
comment regarding what defines that aside from a tentative deal.
More
UAW
will strike at more U.S. auto plants if serious progress isn't made (cnbc.com)
Striking unions impacting the economy at a level
not seen in decades
The auto workers’ strike is the latest in a series
of labor-management conflicts that economists say could start having
significant growth impacts if they persist.
So far, the United
Auto Workers stoppage has impacted just a small portion of the
workforce with limited implications for the broader economy.
But it is part of a pattern in labor-management conflicts that has
resulted in the most missed hours of work in some 23 years, according to Labor
Department statistics.
“The immediate impact of the auto
workers strike will be limited, but that will change if the strike broadens and
is prolonged,” Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics,
said in a client note Monday.
The UAW has taken a somewhat novel approach to
this walkout, targeting just three factories and involving less than one-tenth
of the workers at the Big Three automakers’ membership. However, if things heat
up and it turns into an all-out strike, bringing into play the 146,000 union
members at Ford, GM and Stellantis, that could change things.
In that case, Shepherdson sees a
potential 1.7 percentage point quarterly hit to GDP at a time when many
economists still fear the U.S. could tip into recession in the coming months.
Auto production amounts to 2.9% of GDP.
A broader strike also would
complicate policymaking
for the Federal Reserve, which is trying to bring down inflation
without tipping the economy into contraction.
“The problem for the Fed is that it would be impossible to know in real
time how much of any slowing in economic growth could confidently be pinned on
the strike, and how much could be due to other factors, notably the hit to
consumption from the restart of student loan payments,” Shepherdson said.
More
Striking
unions impacting the economy at a level not seen in decades (cnbc.com)
Ford employees in Canada 'meeting resistance' ahead
of Monday's strike deadline
SEPT. 17, 2023 / 6:08 PM
Sept. 17 (UPI) -- Ford workers in Canada may soon strike as the automaker and the
union remain apart on wages and other key issues.
The
collective bargaining agreement between Ford and Unifor -- the union
representing Ford employees -- expires at 11:59 p.m. on Monday, CBC reports.
Unifor
President Lana Payne described the negotiations with Ford as "meeting
resistance."
"If
I was to summarize the status of talks with Ford right now, I would say things
are moving, but we are certainly not there yet," Payne said.
The union
has rejected two offers from Ford so far, according to Payne. Unifor is seeking
pensions, higher wages, investment options and support for the transition to
electric vehicles.
Ford's
lone Canadian assembly plant is located in Oakville, Ontario, a suburb of
Toronto. Unifor has 3,400 members at that plant, CNN reports. The Ford Edge and Lincoln Nautilus
are assembled there.
There are
also two Ford engine plants in Windsor, Ontario, Canada. Those plants employ
1,700 Unifor members.
The
impending strike would come as United Auto Workers members from Ford, General
Motors and Chrysler parent company Stellantis stage a strike in the United States.
"Talks have continued to progress since Unifor's last
information session at both master and local tables. However, at this late
stage in the negotiations, the union and the company remain far apart,"
Unifor said in a press release Sunday. "As the deadline
approaches, Unifor members at Ford Motor Company are advised to be prepared
for all scenarios, including strike action. All Unifor members are required to
report for their regularly scheduled shift unless otherwise directed by union
officials."
Ford employees in Canada ‘meeting resistance’ ahead of Monday’s strike deadline - UPI.com
Finally, don’t look now but Brent crude is trading
above $95 a barrel and the US yield curve is inverting more again.
Oil hovers near $95 a
barrel as global crude surges to its highest level in 10 months
Tue, 19 September
2023 at 12:12 am BST
Tighter supply and continuous
strong demand have pushed oil prices to their highest point since November.
Brent
crude, the international benchmark, climbed about 0.54% on Monday to
hit $94.43, while West
Texas Intermediate moved 0.86% higher to $91.55.
Both benchmarks have climbed
for three consecutive weeks, and are now on pace to notch their
largest quarterly gain since the first quarter of 2022, when Russia invaded
Ukraine.
Both Russia and Saudi Arabia
earlier this month committed to extending supply cuts, and together will slash
1.3 million barrels per day through the end of the year. Meanwhile, demand
remains steady, and could turn even stronger if China
shakes off some of its economic malaise. The outlook in the US
for the economy to remain strong and only encounter a mild recession in 2024 is
also keeping demand forecasts elevated.
On Monday, Citi strategists
forecasted that Brent crude could hit triple-digits this year, while Bank of
America said last week that international prices would hit $100 a barrel by the
end of the year, primarily on the strength of demand from Asia.
Bjarne Schieldrop, chief
commodity analyst at SEB, pointed out that certain oil grades are already
trading above $100 a barrel. Tapis crude, for example, traded at $101.3 a
barrel last week.
"Crude oil prices have been
on a relentless rise since late June when it became clear that Saudi Arabia
would keep its production at 9 m b/d not just in July but also in August,"
Schieldrop wrote in a note Monday. "This was later extended to September
and then lately to the end of the year. On paper this has placed the market
into a solid deficit."
In his view, "no more than
some market noise" is needed for global prices to surpass $100 a barrel.
Oil
hovers near $95 a barrel as global crude surges to its highest level in 10
months (yahoo.com)
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Olive oil prices surge over 100% to record
highs, sparking cooking oil thefts
Olive oil prices spiked to fresh records as severe
droughts in major producing countries crimp supplies — and drive up thefts
in cooking oil.
Global prices for olive oil surged
to $8,900 per ton in September, driven by “extremely dry weather” in the
Mediterranean, according to a recent report by the United States Department of Agriculture.
Already, the average price in August was 130% higher compared to the year
before, and showed “no sign of easing,” USDA said.
Spain, the world’s largest producer and exporter of olive oil, has been battered
by an intense drought for months. The country also just
recorded its third hottest summer, with the average
summer temperature 1.3°C higher than normal, according to state meteorological
agency AEMET.
According to data from commodity market
intelligence firm Mintec, Spain’s olive oil production in the recent season has
slumped to around 610,000 tonnes — that’s a drop of more than 50% compared to
the usual 1.3 to 1.5 million tonnes.
“Adding to the
complexity of the situation are concerns about reduced production in other
major European olive oil-producing countries, including Italy and Greece, where
drought conditions prevail,” Mintec’s oilseeds and vegetable oils analyst, Kyle
Holland, told CNBC.
Greece and Italy
are the second and third largest producers of olive oil, according to the International Olive Council,
an intergovernmental organization made up of members that make up more than 98%
of olive production globally.
Olive oil thieves
Prices of olive oil
in Spain’s Andalusia soared to €8.45 ($9.02) per kilogram in September,
Mintec’s benchmark showed. It marks the “highest price ever recorded for
Spanish olive oil” based on the company’s data spanning over 20 to 30
years, and represents a year-on-year jump of 111%.
The soaring prices, on what’s sometimes referred
to as “liquid gold,” have led some to steal it.
More
Olive
oil prices surge over 100%, leading to cooking oil thefts (cnbc.com)
Oil climbs on supply
concerns, recovery in China demand
By Florence Tan and Sudarshan
Varadhan September
18, 2023 7:34 AM GMT+1
SINGAPORE, Sept
18 (Reuters) - Oil prices rose for a third straight session on Monday, buoyed
by forecasts of a widening supply deficit in the fourth quarter after Saudi
Arabia and Russia extended cuts and by optimism about a recovery in demand in
China.
Brent crude
futures rose 71 cents, or 0.8%, to $94.64 a barrel by 0622 GMT while U.S. West
Texas Intermediate crude futures were at $91.55 a barrel, up 78 cents, or 0.9%.
"China's
stimulus policy, resilient U.S. economic data, and OPEC+’s ongoing output cuts
are the bullish factors that support the oil market's upside movement,"
CMC Markets analyst Tina Teng said, referring to a reserve
ratio cut by China's central bank last
week to boost liquidity and support its economy.
Traders will be
watching decisions and commentary by central banks, including the U.S. Federal
Reserve, this week on interest rate policies, as well as key economic data out
of China.
Brent and WTI
have climbed for three consecutive weeks to touch their highest levels since
November and are on track for their biggest quarterly increase since Russia's
invasion of Ukraine in the first quarter of 2022.
The Saudi and
Russian output cuts could push the market into a 2 million barrels per day
(bpd) deficit in the fourth quarter, and a subsequent drawdown in inventories
could leave the market exposed to further price spikes in 2024, ANZ analysts
said in a note.
Saudi
Arabia and Russia extended
supply cuts to the end of the year as part
of the OPEC+ group's plans. Chinese
refineries have also ramped up output,
driven by strong export margins.
"It seems
like prices will easily find a home above the $90 a barrel level, which means
the focus might shift to the demand outlook from the world's two largest
economies," said Edward Moya, an analyst at OANDA.
Global
oil demand growth is on track to hit 2.1 million bpd, ANZ said, in line with
forecasts from the International
Energy Agency and the Organization of the
Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
Oil climbs on supply concerns, recovery in China demand | Reuters
Covid-19 Corner
This
section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
First Case of White Dot Syndrome Emerged After COVID-19 Vaccine and Subsequent Infection, Study Shows
Multiple
evanescent white dot syndrome has been detected in people after a COVID-19
infection and after getting the vaccine, but never under both circumstances in
the same patient.
9/10/2023 Updated: 9/14/2023
Scientists from New Zealand
have uncovered the first case of a rare eye disease linked to both the COVID-19
vaccine and the virus itself, a new study published in the Journal of
Ophthalmic Inflammation and Infection reveals.
An otherwise healthy
28-year-old patient was diagnosed with multiple evanescent white dot syndrome
(MEWDS) after complaining of vision problems just two days after receiving her
second dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine.
The woman’s symptoms included
dark blind spots, phantom light flashes, and overall decreased vision—all
specific to her right eye.
Doctors discovered that the vision in her right eye went from 20/20 to 20/50, meaning that she could see something at up to only 20 feet that someone with average eyesight could see at up to 50 feet, according to the study. In addition, her eye tissue was torn, optic nerves were swollen, and multiple pale-colored lesions were scattered throughout the back of her eye.
After three months and without treatment, vision in the woman's right eye returned to normal, and all other symptoms subsided.
One year later, the woman
showed similar symptoms and was once again diagnosed with MEWDS, but this time,
it was in her left eye. Symptoms emerged seven days after she had tested
positive for COVID-19, leading researchers to suspect a link between the two
events.
Similar to the first instance,
no treatment was required, and symptoms resolved after nine months.
What Is MEWDS?
MEWDS, which dates to
1984, is considered an idiopathic inflammatory disease of the outer retina that
occurs spontaneously and without concrete explanation, according to the study.
It's thought to be an autoimmune response.
More
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Exclusive: EU may
become as hooked on China batteries as it was on Russian energy
By Belén Carreño September 18, 20236:59 AM GMT+1
MADRID, Sept 17 (Reuters) - The
European Union could become as dependent on China for lithium-ion batteries and
fuel cells by 2030 as it was on Russia for energy before the war in Ukraine
unless it takes strong measures, a paper prepared for EU leaders said.
The document, obtained by Reuters, will
be the basis of discussions on Europe's economic security during a meeting of
EU leaders in Granada in Spain on Oct. 5.
Worried by China's growing global
assertiveness and economic weight, the leaders will discuss the European
Commission's proposals to reduce the risk of Europe being too dependent on
China and the need diversify towards Africa and Latin America.
The paper said that because of the
intermittent nature of renewable energy sources like solar or wind, Europe will
need ways to store energy to reach its goal of net-zero carbon dioxide
emissions by 2050.
"This will skyrocket our demand
for lithium-ion batteries, fuel cells and electrolysers, which is expected to
multiply between 10 and 30 times in the coming years," the paper, prepared
by the Spanish presidency of the EU, said.
While the EU has a strong position in
the intermediate and assembly phases of making electrolysers, with a more than
50% global market share, it relies heavily on China for fuel cells and
lithium-ion batteries crucial for electric vehicles.
"Without implementing strong
measures, the European energy ecosystem could have a dependency on China by
2030 of a different nature, but with a similar severity, from the one it had on
Russia before the invasion of Ukraine," it said.
According to the European Commission,
in 2021, the year before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the EU took more than
40% of its total gas consumption, 27% of oil imports and 46% of coal imports
from Russia.
Ending most energy purchases from
Russia caused an energy price shock in the EU and a surge in consumer
inflation, forcing the European Central Bank to sharply raise interest rates in
a move that has curbed economic growth.
Lithium-ion batteries and fuel cells
were not the only area of EU vulnerability, the Spanish presidency paper said.
"A similar scenario could unfold
in the digital-tech space," the document said. "Forecasts suggest
that the demand for digital devices such as sensors, drones, data servers,
storage equipment and data transmission networks will rise sharply in this
decade."
"The EU has a relatively strong
position in the latter, but it shows significant weaknesses in the other
areas," it said.
By 2030, this foreign dependency could
seriously hinder the productivity gains that the European industry and service
sector urgently require and could impede the modernisation of agriculture
systems essential to addressing climate change, it said.
Exclusive: EU may become as hooked on China batteries
as it was on Russian energy | Reuters
The more I made the more I spent.
Jesse Livermore.
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