Baltic Dry Index. 1526 +87 Brent Crude 93.54
Spot
Gold 1930 US
2 Year Yield 5.08 +0.03
If a government resorts to inflation, that is, creates money in order to cover its budget deficits or expands credit in order to stimulate business, then no power on earth, no gimmick, device, trick or even indexation can prevent its economic consequences.
Henry Hazlitt.
It is D-Day for Fed Chairman Powell and the US central bank. Leave their key interest rate unchanged despite a rising US inflation rate with more to come from soaring crude oil prices, or shock the US stock casinos with another (final?) interest rate hike to (probably) push the US economy into recession (probably) about year-end.
In
better news, it looks like an auto strike has been avoided at Ford in Canada.
Canada’s message to the big 3 US auto makers, stop building cars in Bolshevik USA,
come and build vehicles in cheaper, capitalist friendly, Canada. Oh Canada!
Asia markets fall as China keeps benchmark loan
rates unchanged; Fed decision on horizon
UPDATED TUE, SEP 19 2023 11:07 PM EDT
Asia-Pacific markets mostly fell as China left
its one-year and five-year loan
prime rates unchanged and traders brace for the U.S.
Federal Reserve’s rate decision Wednesday stateside.
China’s one-year and five-year
loan prime rates were held at 3.45% and 4.2% respectively.
The region also saw August trade
data out from Japan, while wholesale inflation in South Korea jumped for the
first time since July 2022.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 was
marginally up, while the Topix lost 0.24%. Japan’s trade deficit in August
narrowed by two-thirds on a year-on-year basis, while imports and exports
recorded a smaller fall than expected.
In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 fell
0.33%, while South Korea’s Kospi was
just below the flatline and the Kosdaq was down 0.71%
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index slumped
0.26% after the LPR announcement, and mainland Chinese markets were also in
negative territory, with the CSI 300 falling 0.33%
On Tuesday in the U.S., all three major indexes lost
ground ahead of the Fed’s decision, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average shedding
0.31%.
The broad-market S&P 500 slid
0.22%, while the Nasdaq
Composite lost 0.23%.
Asia
stock markets today: Live updates (cnbc.com)
Stock futures are little changed ahead of Fed
rate decision: Live updates
UPDATED TUE, SEP 19 2023 7:13 PM
EDT
Stock futures were calm on Tuesday evening as
Wall Street geared up for the latest interest rate decision and economic update
from the Federal Reserve.
Futures tied to the Dow Jones
Industrial Average were
flat. S&P 500
futures and Nasdaq 100 futures ticked
up less than 0.1% each.
The muted moves come before the Federal
Open Market Committee’s policy decision, which is due out on
Wednesday afternoon. The central bank is widely expected to hold rates steady,
but investors will be paying close attention to the summary of economic
projections and the press conference of Fed chair Jerome Powell for clues about
what might happen in the months ahead.
“The number one thing we’re
watching for, and what investors are looking for, is where are longer term
expectations: Where is that terminal rate,” said Dylan Kremer, co-chief
investment officer at wealth management firm Certuity.
“And ultimately we expect to
downplay any inflationary items that have come out recently, such as the oil
markets,” he added.
Trading has been mostly quiet so
far this week, seemingly on hold ahead of the Fed meeting. On Tuesday, the Dow shed
just over 100 points, or 0.3%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite dropped
0.2% each.
Stock
market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)
Ford avoids Canadian auto strike with
Unifor union deal
DETROIT – Ford Motor avoided
having to face labor strikes on both sides of the U.S.-Canada border Tuesday
night, as the automaker and Canadian union Unifor announced a tentative deal
covering 5,600 autoworkers in the country’s Ontario providence.
The Detroit automaker and union
announced the agreement — which must still be ratified by members — hours
before an extended 11:59 p.m. Tuesday deadline. The sides extended
the talks by 24 hours following Ford’s last-minute proposal Monday night to
Unifor.
The Canadian tentative agreement
was reached on day five of the United Auto Workers union initiating targeted
strikes against Ford and its crosstown rivals General Motors and
Chrysler-parent Stellantis.
A Unifor strike would have impacted
Ford’s Oakville Assembly Plant that produces the Ford Edge and Lincoln Nautilus
crossovers as well as two engine plants that produce V8 engines used in key
products such as the Ford F-Series pickups and Mustang muscle car.
Ford and Unifor declined to immediately release
details of the agreement, which Lana Payne, national president of the union,
said “addresses all of the items raised by members in preparation for this
round of collective bargaining.”
“We believe that this agreement
will solidify the foundations on which we will continue to bargain gains for
generations of autoworkers in Canada,” she said in a statement Tuesday
night.
Unifor, which represents 18,000
Canadian workers at the Detroit automakers, took a more traditional approach to
its negotiations than its U.S. counterpart did. The Canadian union picked Ford
as its “target” company instead of following the UAW’s new strategy of
bargaining with all three automakers. It also announced a traditional national
strike, if needed, instead of targeted ones.
The union is expected to release
details of the agreement to members in the coming days, followed by a vote. If
ratified, the deal will be used as a pattern for Unifor to bargain with GM and
Stellantis.
More
In
other news, did China just cook Apple and roast President Biden’s technology
goose?
Huawei’s chip breakthrough poses new threat
to Apple in China — and questions for Washington
Apple is
facing a number of issues in China, with geopolitical risks mounting and the
economy still not firing as many would have hoped.
But the biggest challenge of all, according
to analysts, could be a resurgent Huawei after a purported major semiconductor
breakthrough that flew in the face of U.S. sanctions.
The latest chip, made by China’s biggest
semiconductor manufacturer SMIC,
has sparked concern in Washington and raised questions about how it was
possible, without the company being able to access critical technologies.
But there is also scrutiny on whether the
process being used to make these new chips is efficient enough on a large scale
to sustain a Huawei comeback.
What has happened to Huawei so far?
For years, the U.S. has maintained Huawei
presents a national
security risk due to alleged links to the Chinese Communist
Party and the country’s military. Huawei has repeatedly denied any such risk
exists.
Starting in 2019, the U.S. government, under
the presidency of Donald
Trump, enacted a number of sanctions that cut off Huawei from key
technologies including 5G chips, Google
software and its leading-edge
mobile processor, that helped propel it to the world’s
biggest smartphone maker.
Those U.S. restrictions almost wiped
out Huawei’s smartphone business.
What’s the big deal about Huawei’s new chip?
Alongside Apple and Samsung, Huawei is one of
only a few companies that has designed its own smartphone processor. This was
done through the Chinese firm’s HiSilicon division.
The chip, however, was manufactured by Taiwan Semiconductor
Manufacturing Co.,
or TSMC. U.S. export restrictions, which effectively barred Huawei from using
American technology anywhere along the chipmaking process, meant the Chinese
company could no longer source its chips from TSMC.
The Taiwanese chipmaker is the most advanced semiconductor manufacturer in
the world. There is no Chinese company that can do what TSMC does. That’s why
shock waves were sent through the political and tech world when Huawei quietly
released the Mate 60 Pro in China this month, with analysis showing a chip
inside made by SMIC.
Along with Huawei, SMIC is on a U.S. trade
blacklist called the Entity List. Companies on this list are restricted from
buying American technology. Meanwhile, SMIC’s technology is seen as generations
behinds the likes of TSMC.
So how could this have been done with the
huge amount of sanctions on both Huawei and SMIC?
What we know about Huawei’s chip
Huawei’s smartphone chip is called the Kirin
9000S, which combines the processor and components for what appears to be 5G
connectivity. 5G refers to next-generation mobile internet that promises
super-fast speeds. Huawei has not confirmed the phone is 5G capable, but reviews have shown the device is
capable of hitting download speeds associated with 5G.
The semiconductor has been manufactured using
a 7 nanometer process by SMIC, according to an analysis of the Mate 60 Pro by
software company TechInsights.
The nanometer figure refers to the size of
each individual transistor on a chip. The smaller the transistor, the more of
them can be packed onto a single semiconductor. Typically, a reduction in
nanometer size can yield more powerful and efficient chips.
The 7 nm process is seen as highly advanced
in the world of semiconductors, even though it is not the latest technology.
For years, SMIC struggled to make 7 nm chips.
That’s in part because it couldn’t get its hands on a very expensive and
crucial device called an extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machine. These
are made by Dutch firm ASML,
but the company has been restricted by its government from sending these
machines to China.
Many thought this would hold
back SMIC’s ability to make advanced chips. But it seems to have
made it happen without these tools.
In a blogpost this month, Dan Hutcheson, vice chair of
TechInsights, said the 7 nm chip “demonstrates the technical progress China’s
semiconductor industry has been able to make without EUV lithography tools.”
Huawei was not immediately available for comment regarding
this story when contacted by CNBC.
More
Huawei's
chip breakthrough poses new threat to Apple in China (cnbc.com)
Exclusive: Huawei
unit ships Chinese-made surveillance chips in fresh comeback sign -sources
September 20, 2023
5:08 AM GMT+1
BEIJING/SHANGHAI,
Sept 20 (Reuters) - A Huawei Technologies unit is shipping new Chinese-made
chips for surveillance cameras in a fresh sign the Chinese tech giant is
finding ways around four years of U.S. export controls, two sources briefed on
the unit's efforts said.
The shipments to
surveillance camera manufacturers from the company's HiSilicon chip design unit
started this year, according to one of the sources, and a third source familiar
with the industry supply chain. One of the sources briefed on the unit said at
least some of the customers were Chinese.
Hauwei
also unveiled new smartphones in recent weeks that use advanced chips, which
analysts say are domestically
made. The developments indicate the Chinese tech giant is overcoming
Washington's export controls, which since 2019 have barred it from obtaining
components and technology from U.S. firms without approval.
"These
surveillance chips are relatively easy to manufacture compared to smartphone
processors," said the source familiar with the surveillance camera
industry's supply chain, adding that HiSilicon's return would shake up the
market.
More
Finally,
Germany, once the powerhouse and paymaster of the EU, now just a shadow of its
recent past, since the USA blew up its access to cheap Russian gas and with it,
blew up the underpinning basis of the German economy.
Once a global ideal, Germany's economy struggles with an energy shock that's exposing longtime flaws
September 19, 2023
For most of this century, Germany
racked up one economic success after another, dominating global markets for
high-end products like luxury cars and industrial machinery, selling so much to
the rest of the world that half the economy ran on exports.
Jobs were plentiful, the government's
financial coffers grew as other European countries drowned in debt, and books
were written about what other countries could learn from Germany.
No longer. Now, Germany is
the world’s worst-performing major developed economy, with both the
International Monetary Fund and European Union expecting
it to shrink this year.
It follows Russia's invasion
of Ukraine and the loss of Moscow's cheap natural gas — an unprecedented shock
to Germany’s energy-intensive industries, long the manufacturing powerhouse of
Europe.
The sudden underperformance
by Europe's largest economy has set off a wave of criticism, handwringing and
debate about the way forward.
Germany risks
“deindustrialization” as high energy costs and government inaction on other
chronic problems threaten to send new factories and high-paying jobs elsewhere,
said Christian Kullmann, CEO of major German chemical company Evonik Industries
AG.
From his
21st-floor office in the west German town of Essen,
Kullmann points out the symbols of earlier success across the historic Ruhr
Valley industrial region: smokestacks from metal plants, giant heaps of waste
from now-shuttered coal mines, a massive BP oil refinery and Evonik's sprawling
chemical production facility.
These days, the former mining region,
where coal dust once blackened hanging laundry, is a symbol of the energy
transition, dotted with wind turbines and green space.
The loss of cheap Russian natural gas
needed to power factories “painfully damaged the business model of the German
economy,” Kullmann told The Associated Press. “We’re in a situation where we’re
being strongly affected — damaged — by external factors.”
After Russia cut off most of its gas
to the European Union, spurring an energy crisis in the 27-nation bloc that had
sourced 40% of the fuel from Moscow, the German government asked Evonik to keep
its 1960s coal-fired power plant running a few months longer.
The company is shifting away from the
plant — whose 40-story smokestack fuels production of plastics and other goods
— to two gas-fired generators that can later run on hydrogen amid plans to
become carbon neutral by 2030.
More
In central banking as in diplomacy, style, conservative
tailoring, and an easy association with the affluent count greatly and results
far much less.
John Kenneth Galbraith
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
EIA Bumps Up USA Diesel Price
Forecast
by Andreas
Exarheas| Monday, September 18, 2023
The U.S.
Energy Information Administration (EIA) has raised its U.S. diesel price
forecast for 2023 and 2024 in its latest short term energy outlook (STEO)
report, which was released last week.
The EIA now
sees U.S. on-highway diesel fuel prices averaging $4.31 per gallon this year
and $4.07 per gallon next year. In its previous STEO, which was released in August,
the EIA projected that on-highway diesel fuel prices would come in at $4.17 per
gallon in 2023 and $3.94 per gallon in 2024.
September’s
STEO put the 2022 on-highway diesel fuel price at $5.01 per gallon, while the
August STEO put this figure at $5.02 per gallon.
Broken down
quarterly, the EIA’s September STEO sees the on-highway diesel price averaging
$4.25 per gallon in the third quarter, $4.68 per gallon in the fourth quarter,
$4.35 per gallon in the first quarter of next year, $4.06 per gallon in the
second quarter, $3.88 per gallon in the third quarter, and $4.00 per gallon in
the fourth quarter.
In its August
STEO, the EIA projected that the on-highway diesel price would average $4.05
per gallon in the third quarter, $4.30 per gallon in the fourth quarter, $4.10
per gallon in the first quarter of 2024, $3.92 per gallon in the second
quarter, $3.80 per gallon in the third quarter, and $3.93 per gallon in the
fourth quarter.
“We raised our
diesel price forecast because of higher than expected August diesel crack
spreads (the price of a gallon of diesel minus the price of a gallon of crude
oil) and our expectation for lower distillate inventories in the fall,” the EIA
noted in its September STEO.
“Announced
maintenance at the Irving Oil refinery in St. John, New Brunswick, and at the
Monroe Energy refinery in Trainer, Pennsylvania, will reduce distillate fuel
oil supplies to the East Coast,” the EIA added.
“Total
distillate inventories in the United States have been well below average since
last year, and we currently estimate U.S. distillate inventories will decline
by about 11 million barrels in October, more than the average October draw from
2018–22 of nearly 8million barrels, largely because of the maintenance,” the
EIA continued.
The EIA stated
in the STEO that the draw will contribute to additional increases in the
distillate crack spread in October, “which we estimate will average $1.29 per
gallon, a 31-cent increase compared with the August STEO”.
“Both seasonal
increases in demand along with refinery maintenance will reduce distillate
inventories. Increased seasonal demand will also reduce inventories,” the EIA
said.
“East Coast
distillate demand tends to increase in the winter months because many
households in the U.S. Northeast use distillate heating oil, while Midwest
distillate demand tends to increase in September and October because of
agricultural demand associated with the harvest season,” it added.
More
EIA Bumps Up USA Diesel Price Forecast | Rigzone
Will oil hit $100? It
already did in some markets
By Alex Lawler September 18, 20235:20 PM GMT+1
LONDON, Sept 18 (Reuters) - With oil
investors and traders focused on an oil-price rally that has come close to $100
a barrel, some grades of crude oil are already trading above that milestone,
highlighting an expectation of tight supply.
The outright price of Nigerian crude
Qua Iboe surpassed $100 a barrel on Monday, according to LSEG data . Malaysian
crude Tapis reached $101.30 last week, said Bjarne Schieldrop, analyst at
Swedish bank SEB, in a report.
Oil has risen to its highest level of
2023 as investors are focused on the prospect of a supply deficit in the fourth
quarter after Saudi Arabia and Russia extended supply cuts. The two are the
biggest producers in the OPEC+ group, most other members of which are also
curbing output.
"The overall situation is that
Saudi Arabia and Russia are in solid control of the oil market,"
Schieldrop said.
Brent oil futures, a global benchmark ,
traded as high as $94.89 on Monday and the related benchmark used for trading
much of the world's physical cargoes, called dated Brent , stood just above $96
according to LSEG.
Qua Iboe, and some other crudes priced
against Brent, are above $100 already because they are based on the price of
dated Brent plus a cash differential or premium, currently assessed by LSEG at
around $4.25 a barrel .
Schieldrop said dated Brent is highly
likely to move above $100 as "only noise is needed to bring it
above." Swiss bank UBS sees Brent futures reaching triple digits.
"We expect Brent to trade in a
range of $90–100 over the coming months, with a year-end target of $95,"
said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo.
Will oil hit $100? It already did in some markets |
Reuters
It
is possible to increase paper-money income to any amount by debasing the
currency. But real income can only be increased by working harder or more
efficiently, saving more, investing more, and producing more.
Henry Hazlitt.
Covid-19 Corner
This
section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Myocarditis and
COVID-19 Vaccines: How the CDC Missed a Safety Signal and Hid a Warning
Sep 17, 2023 Updated: Sep 18, 2023
COVID-19
vaccines cause heart inflammation, U.S. authorities now acknowledge. But
after being warned in early 2021 about a "large number" of cases
among healthy, young people in Israel after COVID-19 vaccination, authorities
did not immediately alert the public while also failing to detect a safety
signal that was present in the United States, an Epoch Times investigation has
found.
Even after
deaths from myocarditis—inflammation of the heart—were reported and myocarditis
was designated as a likely side effect of the shots, U.S. officials kept
recommending vaccination for virtually the entire populace.
That led to
millions of young people receiving a vaccine.
Many of those
people suffered.
Aiden Ekanayake, 14, was one of them. He received a dose of the
Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine in May 2021, and a second dose in June 2021.
Two days after
the second dose, Aiden was woken in the middle of the night with pain that was
comparable to when he tore his anterior cruciate ligament. His mother, Emily,
rushed him to the hospital, where he spent days receiving care. Even after he
was discharged, his exercise was limited for more than four months.
Ms. Ekanayake
trusted the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) before the
experience. Now, she does not.
"I hate them. I think they're
evil," Ms. Ekanayake told The Epoch Times.
No Transparency
The CDC, America's public health agency, was
warned by Israel on Feb. 28, 2021, about a "large number" of
myocarditis cases after Pfizer COVID-19 vaccination, documents obtained by
The Epoch Times show.
Internally, the warning was designated as
"high" importance and set off a review of U.S. data. The review found
27 reported cases in the United States, according to a U.S. government memorandum dated March 9,
2021. The incidence rate was low, but "missing and incomplete data make it
challenging to assess causation," the memo stated. The U.S. Food and
Drug Administration (FDA), it said, "has not made a final determination
regarding the causality."
Weeks
later, neither the CDC nor the FDA had alerted the public to
the issue, even after the death of a previously healthy 22-year-old
Israeli woman and briefings from Israeli officials and U.S. Department of
Defense (DOD) researchers.
Like Israel,
the DOD was recording a higher-than-expected number of myocarditis cases.
Patients were mostly young, healthy males.
The CDC met
with military officials twice behind closed doors in April 2021. Military
officials presented data during at least one of the meetings to the
CDC. That presentation, which has never been released to the public,
"included our preliminary patient data and analysis that suggested to us
that myocarditis was indeed a possible side effect to the messenger RNA
COVID-19 vaccines (within the US military)," Dr. Jay Montgomery, one of
the presenters, told The Epoch Times via email.
The Pfizer and
Moderna vaccines use messenger RNA (mRNA).
On April 27, 2021, after the meetings,
then-CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky finally spoke about the matter in
public, during a White House briefing.
Dr. Walensky
said "we have not seen any reports" of myocarditis after
vaccination. That's false, according to CDC data—the agency received 141
reports of myocarditis in the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) by
the end of March 2021. Another 24 cases were recorded in the Vaccine Safety
Datalink, a second system run by the CDC.
More
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Scientists invent solar panel coating that lets them
work in any weather
September 18, 2023
Engineers have
invented a way to passively remove snow from solar panels to allow them to keep
generating electricity during adverse weather conditions.
A team from
the University of Toledo in the United States developed a strip coating that
causes accumulated snow to slide off solar panels without interfering with
their efficiency
Solar panels
can generate electricity on cloudy days, however snow cover can completely
block their ability to harvest any of the Sun’s energy. This can result in up
to 12 per cent loss of electricity generation per year in areas with heavy
snowfall.
The
self-cleaning strips can also be applied to both new and existing solar
installations relatively easily.
“The strip
coatings apply to the lower edge of the panel, resulting in passive snow
removal without requiring any energy to operate,” said Hossein Sojoudi, an
associate professor in the Department of Mechanical Industrial, and
Manufacturing Engineering at the University of Toledo.
“Our strip
coating does not interfere with absorption of sunlight or panel efficiency at
any time, does not cause any partial shading or hotspots on the panel, and does
not invalidate module warranty and in fact improves the lifetime of the
module.”
Tests in the
US and Japan found that solar panels fitted with the strip achieved more than 5
per cent improved power generation annually.
Solar
accounted for around 3.4 per cent of electricity generation in the US last
year, according to figures from the Energy Information Administration, while
more than half of new US electricity-generating capacity in 2023 is forecast to
be from solar.
Working with
industry partners, Dr Sojoudi said he expects thousands of strip coatings to be
installed across the US by the end of 2023.
“We estimate
to reach a production rate of 1 million strip coatings by the end of 2024,” he
said.
“Our solution
is a game-changing technology that can lead to an additional $150 million in
additional annual revenue, across states with heavy snowfall... Through the
help of our strategic partners, we are delivering on the promise of solar
energy all year long.”
Scientists invent solar panel coating that lets them
work in any weather (msn.com)
Fire breaks out in lithium battery
storage area at CareCo mobility equipment warehouse
Liane McIvor 18th
September 2023
A fire which took place in the early hours of Sunday morning at the main
distribution centre and warehouse for mobility equipment retailer CareCo in
Essex has been established as having started in an area storing used lithium
batteries.
Firefighters from Essex County Fire and Rescue Service were called to
the “completely smoke-logged” building in Great Notley, near Braintree, at
1.15am on Sunday with the fire taking over 12 hours and eight fire crews to
extinguish.
After drones and thermal imaging camera were used to assess the incident
and pinpoint the crucial areas in the building Essex County Fire and Rescue
Service established that the fire had started in an area storing used lithium
batteries.
Howard Midwood, Incident Commander at Essex County Fire and Rescue
Service commented: “Throughout the night we had somewhere between 40-50
firefighters wearing breathing apparatus tackling the fire inside the building
and we’ve also been using an aerial ladder platform to pour water from above.
“Our firefighters have worked tirelessly throughout the incident and
have shown skill and dedication in very challenging conditions. Thanks also to
our partners, the Salvation Army and the site staff.
“Because lithium batteries are involved, extinguishing the fire is a
longer process than usual.”
William Harrison, Founder and Managing Director of CareCo, commented in
a statement: “Thankfully, nobody was hurt in the incident. We owe an enormous
debt of gratitude to Essex County Fire and Rescue Service who responded to the
situation so quickly.
“Unfortunately, it is clear there will be some delays to order
dispatches and returns, as well as to other services we provide. We’re doing
everything we can to minimise this disruption.”
With the fire now under control firefighters today remained on the scene
to dampen down the area. A fire investigation has revealed that the cause
of the fire was “accidental”.
“All banks are insolvent in the
short term. They tend to lend long and take deposits short, so when people
panic, they take the money out of the bank, and banks can’t meet their
obligations. They’re bankrupt.”
John Steele Gordon, author
of The Scarlet Woman of Wall Street: Jay Gould, Jim Fisk, Cornelius
Vanderbilt, the Erie Railway Wars and the Birth of Wall Street.
No comments:
Post a Comment