Baltic Dry Index. 1752 +58 Brent Crude 97.38
Spot Gold 1875 US 2 Year Yield 5.10 +0.06
William
the Bastard, aka William the Conqueror, landed [at Pevensey in Sussex] on September 28, 1066, and defeated Harold's forces at
the Battle of Hastings on October 14 and was crowned on Christmas Day. He spent
the latter part of his reign quashing dissent from the English nobility.
William's conquest resulted in the introduction of Norman landowners,
reformations to the court and government, shifting the course of English
history.
William the Conqueror (King of England) - On This Day
As we approach month-end, quarter-end, week three of the US auto strike and a possible US government shutdown starting Sunday, the crude oil price is heading again for 100 dollars a barrel, bringing with it rising fears of a new bout of global inflation ahead.
In the stock casinos, this is very bad news ahead of “crash month” October arriving.
But, in America physical gold bullion is
making something of a comeback. Forget dodgy cryptocurrencies with no intrinsic
value and a band of crooks, Costco members can now buy 1 oz. physical gold
bullion bars online.
Asia markets mixed as oil and Treasury yields climb, Evergrande shares suspended
UPDATED
THU, SEP 28 2023 12:45 AM EDT
Asia-Pacific markets fell after notching some
gains on Wednesday as an uptick in Treasury yields and oil prices dented
investor sentiment on Wall Street.
The
benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield hit its highest levels
since 2007 and U.S. crude futures popped more than 3% to settle at $93.68 per
barrel.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index slipped
0.57%, after the exchange announced that shares of
embattled Chinese real estate firm Evergrande
have been suspended.
Mainland Chinese stocks were
slightly up on Thursday, with the CSI 300 rising 0.21%.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 slipped
0.82%, while the Topix saw a smaller loss of 0.75% on Thursday morning.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rebounded
from Wednesday’s losses and gained 0.26%.
South Korea’s markets are closed
for a public holiday.
Overnight in the U.S., all three major indexes finished the day
mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average reversing gains and ending down 0.2%. The S&P 500 edged up 0.02%, while the Nasdaq Composite added 0.22%.
Asia
stock markets today: Live updates (cnbc.com)
Evergrande
shares halted as concerns mount about developer's prospect
September 28, 20234:59 AM GMT+1
HONG
KONG, Sept 28 (Reuters) - Trading in shares of China Evergrande Group (3333.HK) was
suspended on Thursday after a report that its chairman had been placed under
police watch, as concerns mounted about the cash-strapped developer's
future amid growing liquidation risk.
With more than
$300 billion in liabilities - roughly the size of Finland's gross domestic
product - Evergrande has become the poster child of a debt crisis in China's
property sector, which contributes to roughly a quarter of the economy.
Trading
in the shares of Evergrande and two of its units were suspended on Thursday, a
day after Bloomberg reported that its Chairman Hui
Ka Yan was taken away by police this month and was being monitored at
a designated location.
The report said
it was not clear why Hui was under surveillance and Reuters could not
immediately verify the news. Evergrande and the police authorities have not
responded to Reuters requests for comment.
Evergrande
has been working to get creditors' approval for restructuring its offshore
debt. The process got complicated this week after Evergrande said it was unable
to issue
new debt due to an investigation into its main China unit.
The offshore
debt restructuring plan now looks set to falter and the risks of the company
being liquidated are rising, some analysts said.
Reuters
reported on Tuesday that a major Evergrande offshore creditor
group was planning to join a liquidation court petition filed against
the developer if it does not submit a new debt revamp plan by the end of
October.
"It is
unclear why Hui is under police surveillance, but it may signal certain
negotiations demanded from the government. The latest development has disrupted
the hope of restructuring," said Gary Ng, Asia Pacific senior economist at
Natixis.
"No
developer is too big to fail in China, and therefore it is hard to imagine a
full bail-out. Still, when it comes to stability, it is possible to see more
government influence in different ways," Ng said.
The company
shares ended down 19% on Wednesday in the Hong Kong market, taking their losses
to 81% since the resumption of trading in late August after a 17-month
suspension.
More
Evergrande
shares halted as concerns mount about developer's prospect | Reuters
Oil prices surge
to highest level in more than a year
Oil prices surged to their highest level in over a
year during Asian trading hours, after crude stocks at a key storage hub fell
to their lowest since July last year.
Crude inventories in Cushing,
Oklahoma fell to 22 million barrels in the fourth week of September — hovering
close to the operational minimum, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration
(EIA). That’s a drop of 943,000 barrels compared to the prior week.
The U.S. West
Texas Intermediate futures touched $95.03 per barrel during
Asia trading hours, marking the highest since August 2022. It was last trading
at $94.61 per barrel. Global
benchmark Brent rose 1.05% to $97.56 a barrel.
“Today’s price action seems to be Cushing driven,
as it reaches a 22 million bbl low, the lowest level since July 2022,” Bart
Melek, managing director of TD Securities, told CNBC.
If the inventories
continue to dip below those levels, it’s going to be “rough” getting crude out
into the market, Melek said on CNBC’s “Street Signs Asia.”
He forecasts that
oil prices will continue to remain at “high level” for the rest of the year,
with an upside risk if global oil cartel OPEC+ continues to keep supplies
tight.
The global oil markets are looking at a “pretty
robust deficit” on top of an already significant shortfall this quarter, Malek
said, citing the oil production cuts implemented by OPEC and its allies.
In September, OPEC+ kingpin Saudi Arabia extended
its 1 million barrel per day voluntary crude oil production cut until
the end of the year. It brings Saudi’s crude output to near 9 million barrels
per day.
Russia has also pledged to extend its 300,000
barrels per day export reduction until the end of December.
Malek also highlighted how refinery
throughputs will see a decline in the coming months as refinery maintenance
season approaches. The refinery crude throughput refers to the
volume of crude oil a refinery can produce during a given period of time.
More
Crude
oil: WTI, Brent prices surge to highest level in more than a year (cnbc.com)
Harsh reality of
'higher-for-longer' rates looms over US stocks
By Lewis Krauskopf, David Randall and Carolina Mandl
September
27, 20236:10 AM GMT+1U
NEW YORK, Sept 27
(Reuters) - As the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance boosts Treasury yields and
slams stocks, some investors are preparing for more pain ahead.
For most of the
year, equity investors brushed off a rise in Treasury yields as a by-product of
better-than-expected economic growth, despite worries that yields could
eventually weigh on stocks if they rose too high.
Those
concerns may be taking on fresh urgency after the Fed last week forecast it would leave rates elevated for longer than many
investors were expecting.
Following
a 1.5% tumble on Tuesday, the S&P 500 (.SPX) is now down more than 7% from its July highs, stung
by sharp declines in shares of some of this year's biggest winners -- including
Apple (AAPL.O), Amazon.com (AMZN.O) and Nvidia (NVDA.O). At the same time, yields on the U.S. benchmark 10-year
Treasury stand near a 16-year peak at 4.55%.
With policymakers
projecting rates will remain around current levels until the end of 2024, some
investors say more volatility could be in store. Higher yields on Treasuries -
which are sensitive to interest rate expectations and seen as risk free because
they are backed by the U.S. government - offer investment competition to stocks
while raising the cost of borrowing for corporations and households.
The market “is
recalibrating what is the right valuation for equities in a 5% interest rate
world,” said Jake Schurmeier, a portfolio manager at Harbor Capital Advisors.
"Investors are asking, ‘Why do I need to (take) equity risk when I get
more returns than that just by holding a Treasury bill?’"
If history is any
indication, higher rates are a less favorable environment for equity investors.
An analysis by AQR Capital Management going back to 1990 showed U.S. equities
returned an average of 5.4% over cash when rates were above their median level
- as they are now - compared with a return of 11.5% when interest rates were
below their median.
"Stock
markets are just plain expensive,” said Dan Villalon, principal and global
co-head of portfolio solutions at AQR Capital Management, who believes rates
will be higher over the next five to 10 years than in the previous decade,
impacting returns.
AQR's analysis
showed that trend-following hedge funds tend to outperform when rates are
elevated, as they hold large cash positions that benefit from higher rates.
The equity risk
premium, which compares the attractiveness of stocks over risk-free government
bonds, has been shrinking for most of 2023 and was last around its lowest
levels in about 14 years, according to Keith Lerner, co-chief investment
officer at Truist Advisory Services.
The current ERP
level has historically translated to just a 1.3% average 12-month excess return
of the S&P 500 over the 10-year Treasury, according to Lerner.
The 10-year
Treasury yield up to 4.5% "changes the narrative for stocks," said
Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth Management, who is
holding a higher-than-normal cash position.
"Investors
are going to be even more worried that we could enter into a recession as the
cost of borrowing is increasing and corporate margins will be squeezed,"
he said.
More
Harsh reality of 'higher-for-longer' rates looms over
US stocks | Reuters
Costco is selling gold bars and they are selling out within a few hours
Costco is well-known as a
place to get bargain prices on any variety of items, from food to luggage to
appliances to gold bars.
Wait, gold
bars?
Yes, the retail warehousing giant is your one-stop shop for 1 ounce gold PAMP Suisse Lady Fortuna
Veriscan bars, handsomely detailed and ready for purchase.
They’re available for the
bargain price of … well, you have to be a member to know that, but apparently
they were selling for a little shy of $1,900 recently, according to chatter on
Reddit. Spot
gold most
recently was going for $1,876.56 an ounce as of Wednesday afternoon.
Regardless of
the price, gold is selling like hotcakes, judging by comments Tuesday from Costco Chief
Financial Officer Richard Galanti. Speaking on the company’s quarterly earnings
call, Galanti said the bars are in hot demand and don’t last long when in
stock.
“I’ve gotten a
couple of calls that people have seen online that we’ve been selling 1 ounce
gold bars,” he said. “Yes, but when we load them on the site, they’re typically
gone within a few hours, and we limit two per member.”
A couple of important points from that
thought: The bars indeed are only available online, and only if you’re a Costco
member, which costs either $120 or $60 a year, depending on which program you
pick. The retailer also is limiting the purchases to two to a customer, meaning
it would be pretty hard to build a position that would lead to financial
security.
---- Precious metals have
been on a run over the past several years. Gold has risen more than 15% over
the past year and more than 55% over the past five years.
With
inflation still elevated, banks under the gun from a regulatory standpoint and
looming issues in the commercial real estate market, the safe-haven aspect of
gold and silver should be strong, Rose said.
“We
know what the road map looks like: Bank failures, commercial loans defaulting
at an alarming rate … they don’t seem to have a handle on inflation, and that’s
why they keep raising interest rates,” he said. “The outlook for stability in
the market isn’t good and people want a [tangible] asset that’s going to be a
safe haven. That’s what gold and silver provide.”
Costco
is selling gold bars and they are selling out within hours (cnbc.com)
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
London
sees 24 per cent drop in first-time buyers as high mortgage rates bite
WEDNESDAY 27 SEPTEMBER 2023 6:00 AM
London has
seen a 24 per cent decline in the number of first-time buyers entering the
market in the last year as record high mortgage rates crush home-ownership
dreams.
According to a new study by Halifax, the
South-East, which is home to a number of commuter hotspots such as Surrey, saw
the largest fall in the last year, with 25 per cent fewer first-time
buyers.
Soaring mortgage
rates and a rocky economic sentiment has battered the health of the
housing sector in the last 12 months.
While rates are coming down – the
average five-year fixed mortgage is now at around 5.67 per cent – many first
time buyers are struggling with affordability as they also navigate rising
living costs and wage stagnation.
An end to the Help to Buy and
Help to Buy London schemes, which was stopped last year, also halted many
would-be-buyers’ plans to enter the market.
Across the UK, the number of
first-time buyers fell 22 per cent between January and August this year,
compared to the same period in 2022.
The average price of a first home
is now £288,000 – down just two per cent in the past year.
However, in London the figure is
significantly higher where first-time buyers face an average property price of
£448,000 – nearly 11 times average annual earnings in the area.
Chris Druce, senior research
analyst at Knight Frank, said: “With interest rates at a 15-year high,
affordability is proving to be a significant drag on activity in the UK
residential market. First-time buyers, who are typically unable to access the
best mortgage rates when starting out, are particularly exposed to this.
“While we expect average prices
to decline by 10 per cent through this year and next as the market
continues to cool after a pandemic inspired boom, the challenge of getting onto
the property ladder will remain significant. With the political party conference
season underway, fresh polices to support first time buyers are needed.”
He added: “This is because
existing measures – such as the doubling of the nil-rate stamp duty threshold
for first time buyers – are helpful but time-limited. A replacement for the
expired Help to Buy scheme, which at its peak supported 50,000 new build sales
annually in England, would prove popular, too.”
London sees 24 per cent drop in first-time buyers as high mortgage rates bite (cityam.com)
Covid-19 Corner
This
section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Scientists Move Closer to Potential Blood Test for Detecting Long COVID
With
a lack of specifically identifying biomarkers, doctors have found it difficult
to identify whether patients are suffering from long COVID.
9/26/2023 Updated: 9/26/2023
Since the
outbreak of the pandemic, medical researchers have been unable to define a
common set of symptoms for the complex long COVID condition.
A recent study
led by the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai in New York and Yale School
of Medicine discovered that people suffering from long COVID have distinct
hormonal and immune differences, and that long COVID is a biological disease
with specific biomarkers that can be used to differentiate the condition.
The findings, which were published in Nature, point to the development of blood tests
which can be used to accurately identify those who are suffering from the
condition.
“These
findings are important—they can inform more sensitive testing for long COVID
patients and personalized treatments for long COVID that have, until now, not
had a proven scientific rationale,” said principal investigator David Putrino
in a Mount Sinai news release about the discovery.
“This work is
so exciting because it is one of the first to show us clear, measurable
differences in blood biomarkers of people with long COVID compared with people
who recovered fully from an acute infection and a group of people who have
never been infected with SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID-19). This is a
decisive step forward in the development of valid and reliable blood testing
protocols for long COVID.”
Researchers have attributed brain fog,
fatigue, abnormal taste and smell, cough,
chest and muscle pain, and shortness of breath to long COVID symptoms. There
is no definite list with a complete set of symptoms. Conditions can last from
weeks to months following a COVID-19 infection.
A recent study published in The Lancet found
there were higher rates of lung, brain, and kidney injuries in people suffering
from long COVID, with lung injuries about 14 times higher than those in the
control group.
Over 770 million people have been diagnosed
with COVID-19 worldwide since the virus first began spreading, according to the
World Health Organization, with 10 to 20 percent suffering
from a post COVID-19 condition or long COVID.
More
Scientists Move Closer to Potential Blood Test for Detecting Long COVID | The Epoch Times
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the development
of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported.
OCSiAl
is constructing a graphene nanotube facility in Europe
September 27, 2023
OCSiAl, a leader in graphene
nanotube technologies, has been granted a construction permit for a nanotube
production facility near Belgrade, Serbia. The new nanotube synthesis plant
will be launched in 2024 and will have an initial annual capacity of 60 tonnes
of graphene nanotubes.
Over the next
two years, the capacity of this plant will be increased to 120 tonnes per year.
“The project will facilitate logistics and lower supply chain costs.
European-produced nanotubes and nanotube derivatives will be primarily supplied
to our customers in central and western Europe, North America, and Asia,”
said OCSiAl Group Senior Vice President Gregory Gurevich.
In addition to
synthesizing nanotubes, the facility will manufacture nanotube suspensions for
lithium-ion battery manufacturers in Europe, the US, and Asia – enough to
enhance the performance of more than 1 mln electric cars with an average
battery capacity of 75 kWh per car. OCSiAl nanotubes create long and robust
electrical networks between active material particles, improving key battery
characteristics, including cycle life, lower DCR, C-rate performance, and
cohesion between active battery material particles, making the battery
electrodes more durable. Graphene nanotubes unlock new battery technologies,
including high-silicon content anodes, thick LFP cathodes, fast-charging
graphite anodes, and more. They can be applied in both conventional and emerging
battery tech, such as a dry battery electrode coating process, and solid-state
batteries.
As well as
synthesizing nanotubes and producing suspensions, OCSiAl project includes
manufacturing of nanotube concentrates for high-performance polymers. The project
has passed environmental impact assessment and it is 100% powered by green
energy. It enjoys support from Serbian municipal and national governments. The
plant is planned to be certified in accordance with ISO 9001, ISO 14001, and
ISO 45001, and to be compliant with the IATF 16949 automotive industry
standard. The project will create more than 200 job opportunities for
engineers, scientists, managers, operators, and administrative staff.
Currently,
OCSiAl has an extensive manufacturing system of nanotube-based products in the
regions of highest market demand, such as China, Japan, Sri Lanka, Brazil,
Malaysia, and other countries. The Serbia nanotube hub will operate in
conjunction with the company’s operational R&D center and planned graphene
nanotube synthesis facility in Luxembourg – together, the projects will
significantly strengthen the stability of OCSiAl’s supply chain and increase
the cost-efficiency of nanotube technologies for its customers.
OCSiAl is constructing a graphene nanotube facility in
Europe - JEC (jeccomposites.com)
The Norman
Conquest
The Norman
Conquest (or the Conquest) was the 11th-century invasion and
occupation of England by an army made up of thousands of Norman, Breton, Flemish, and French troops, all led by the Duke of Normandy, later styled William the
Conqueror.
William's claim to the English throne derived
from his familial relationship with the childless Anglo-Saxon king Edward the Confessor, who may have encouraged William's hopes for the throne.
Edward died in January 1066 and was succeeded by his brother-in-law Harold Godwinson. The Norwegian king Harald Hardrada invaded
northern England in September 1066 and was victorious at the Battle of Fulford on
20 September, but Godwinson's army defeated and killed Hardrada at the Battle of
Stamford Bridge on
25 September. Three days later on 28 September, William's invasion force of
thousands of men and hundreds of ships landed at Pevensey in Sussex in southern England. Harold marched south to oppose him,
leaving a significant portion of his army in the north. Harold's army
confronted William's invaders on 14 October at the Battle of Hastings. William's force
defeated Harold, who was killed in the engagement, and William became king.
More
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