"China is over," a senior Japanese government official told Reuters

Baltic Dry Index. 1081 +18             Brent Crude 90.32

Spot Gold 1918                  US 2 Year Yield 5.01 +0.07

"Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked."

Warren Buffett.

I don’t know if “China is over,” but they’re giving an Oscar worthy performance if they’re faking it.

If China is over, lookout below in the global stock casinos.  China has accounted for about 25 percent of the global recovery since the Great Financial Crisis of 2008-2010.

Even if China isn’t quite over, a much slower China, means a much slower global economy for the rest of us.

For those companies and people debt free or largely debt free, no problem. But for those companies and individuals loaded up on what until recently was low cost debt, a disaster now looms.

Stock casinos priced to perfection, meet imperfection.

Asia markets mostly lower as investors assess trade data from China and Australia

UPDATED WED, SEP 6 2023 11:07 PM EDT

Asia-Pacific markets were mostly lower on Thursday, following a sell off on Wall Street and as investors assess trade data from China and Australia.

Chinese imports and exports fell 7.3% and 8.8% year on year, respectively, less than the 9% and 9.2% drops forecasted by a poll of economists by Reuters.

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 slid 0.93% ahead of its July trade data release, leading losses in Asia.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 0.11% after eight straight days of gains, while the Topix was close to the flatline

South Korea’s Kospi saw a 0.8% loss, while the Kosdaq was 1.05% higher.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index shed 0.79%, while mainland Chinese markets were lower, with the CSI 300 down by 0.61%.

Overnight in the U.S., all three major indexes saw a sell off as concerns mounted that the Federal Reserve may not be done hiking interest rates.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average sank 0.57%, while the S&P 500 dropped 0.7%. The Nasdaq Composite saw the largest loss, falling 1.06%.

Australia’s July trade surplus lower than expected; exports and imports both fall

Australia’s trade surplus for July came in at 8.04 billion Australian dollars ($7 billion), almost a third lower than June’s revised figure of AU$10.27 billion.

This figure was also lower than the AU$10 billion surplus expected by economists polled by Reuters.

Exports fell 2% on a monthly basis, led by a fall in driven by non-monetary gold, while imports were 2.5% higher, driven by imports of non-industrial transport equipment.

Asia stock markets today: Live updates (cnbc.com)

Stock futures are little changed as Wall Street shifts focus back to path of interest rates

September 6, 2023

Stock futures were little changed late Wednesday as renewed concern swirled on Wall Street over the course of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy, and whether policymakers will enact another hike this year.

Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 28 points, or 0.08%. S&P 500 futures ticked down 0.07% while Nasdaq futures declined 0.1%.

Technology stocks were the biggest underperformer during regular trading hours, with the Nasdaq Composite closing 1.1% lower and notching a third-consecutive losing session. The tech-heavy index was dragged lower by a more than 3% decline in both Apple and Nvidia.

Higher Treasury yields added pressure to tech stocks and added to investor worry that the Federal Reserve will use recent stronger-than-expected economic data to justify pushing benchmark lending rates higher to squelch inflation. The yield on the 2-year Treasury note added as much as 6 basis points Wednesday.

The Institute for Supply Management’s U.S. services index climbed to a six-month high in August, while the price segment ticked up to 58.9%, a report Wednesday showed. The ISM index’s price barometer hit a four-month high.

“Given the data, the Fed will most likely deliver a hawkish pause at the next meeting,” said by Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial. “The hard data is not yet convincing enough to establish strong views about the subsequent meetings. Investors should still find opportunities in the market but it could be a bumpy ride.”

While 93% of interest rate traders foresee no change at September’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting, expectations of an additional interest rate hike at the November meeting rose above 40%, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

More

Stock futures are little changed as Wall Street shifts focus back to path of interest rates (cnbc.com)

China's exports, imports fall as pressures persist

September 7, 20235:25 AM GMT+1

BEIJING, Sept 7 (Reuters) - China's exports and imports fell in August, data showed on Thursday, as the twin pressures of sagging overseas demand and weak consumer spending squeezed businesses in the world's second-largest economy.

While the trade numbers beat analysts' expectations, they show China's manufacturing sector remains under significant pressure and that policymakers will need to focus on boosting domestic demand to shore up growth, after export orders and imported parts held back factory activity last month.

Exports dropped 8.8% in August year-on-year, customs data showed on Thursday, beating a forecast of 9.2% in a Reuters poll and off a 14.5% drop in July. Meanwhile, imports contracted 7.3%, slower than an expected 9.0% decline and last month's 12.4% fall.

The economy is at risk of missing Beijing's annual growth target of about 5% as officials wrestle with a worsening property slump, weak consumer spending and tumbling credit growth, leading analysts to downgrade forecasts for the year.

"The figures suggest the headwinds remain, despite some marginal improvement," said Zhou Hao, chief economist at Guotai Junan International. "Looking ahead, whether China's trade growth has already hit the bottom will hinge on several factors, the most important of which is obviously domestic demand."

Beijing has announced a series of measures in recent months to shore up growth, with the easing of some borrowing rules last week by the central bank and the top financial regulator to aid homebuyers.

But analysts warn the steps may have little impact with a labour market recovery slowing and household income expectations uncertain.

Crude oil shipments to the world's second-largest economy were 14.7% higher in August than the same period last year, but fell 2.3% from the pervious month, while soybean imports in August jumped 17.9% from a year ago, encouraged by cheap prices in Brazil.

China posted a trade surplus of $68.36 billion in August, compared with a forecast $73.80 billion and a July figure of $80.6 billion.

China's exports, imports fall as pressures persist | Reuters

China's economic gloom hangs over Japan's long-awaited recovery

By Tetsushi Kajimoto and Leika Kihara  September 7, 20233:12 AM GMT+1

TOKYO, Sept 7 (Reuters) - Policymakers in Tokyo believe China's deepening economic woes could hit Japan's fragile recovery, especially if Beijing fails to shore up demand with meaningful stimulus, potentially delaying an exit from ultra-loose monetary policy.

China's downturn would leave Japan's export-reliant economy with little external support as aggressive Federal Reserve interest rate hikes cool growth in the United States, another key driver of global activity.

The risks from China will be among key topics of debate at the Bank of Japan's September policy meeting, say five sources familiar with the bank's thinking, and raise fresh questions about Governor Kazuo Ueda's efforts to wean the economy off the massive monetary stimulus of the past decade.

 

"What's happening in China is worrying and could deal a huge blow to Japan's economy," said one of the sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter.

"A downturn in China may diminish the chance of Japan achieving sustained wage growth," which is a crucial condition for phasing out monetary stimulus, another source said.

In a sign of growing pessimism over China, the government also said its monthly economic report for August that "concern over China's outlook" was among risks to Japan's recovery.

"China is over," a senior Japanese government official told Reuters on condition of anonymity because of sensitivity of the issue. "I think China will never return to 5% growth."

More

China's economic gloom hangs over Japan's long-awaited recovery | Reuters

Policymakers see darker days ahead in China as growth sputters

By Divya Chowdhury  September 7, 20233:36 AM GMT+1

MUMBAI, Sept 6 (Reuters) - Policymakers expect persistently slower growth in China, perhaps even more sluggish than current consensus estimates, seeing its transition from an infrastructure- and investment-led economy to becoming consumption-driven as "difficult".

Viewing the crisis in the world's second largest economy as more structural than cyclical, policymakers expect it to feed into a lower growth outlook globally, but also help alleviate some inflationary pressures as commodity prices cool down.

 

Former Bank of Japan (BOJ) board member Takahide Kiuchi told the Reuters Global Markets Forum (GMF) he expects China's growth rate to decline "to below 4%, or even below 3%," adding this might negatively impact the world economy.

 

Another former BOJ board member, Goushi Kataoka, meanwhile, predicted a "severe future" for the Chinese economy. "The inflation rate in China is around 0% - that means distortion of domestic demand and domestic supply," he said.

China's services activity expanded at its slowest pace in eight months in August, as weak demand continued to dog the economy. This follows economic growth in 2022 recorded at one of its worst levels in nearly half a century.

"This is certainly a risk of a negative external demand shock for Europe and for the global economy," said European Central Bank (ECB) governing council member Boris Vujcic, as he expressed caution.

The Croatian central bank chief sees narrowing room for expansionary policies in China, adding, "We have to be careful."

His fellow governing council member on the ECB, Austrian central bank chief Robert Holzmann, believes economic dynamism won't return to China as long as its administration stays "hesitant about what direction to move."

Through 2023, China has lost its post-Covid momentum as stimulus measures - the latest of which aimed to shore up its debt-ridden property sector - have failed to meaningfully revive consumption.

At the same time the United States and European economies are looking into how to "de-risk" their relationship with China to reduce their reliance on it.

More

Policymakers see darker days ahead in China as growth sputters | Reuters

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

German exporters see decline in trade in 2023 - BGA

September 6, 2023

BERLIN (Reuters) - Most German exporters see trade declining or even strongly declining in 2023, the Federation of German Wholesale, Foreign Trade and Services (BGA) said on Wednesday.

The reasons for the pessimistic mood among exporters are linked to the weak economic situation in Asia and South America, according to the BGA.

"Every fourth job in Germany depends on exports. Our economic and business model is therefore in danger," Dirk Jandura, president of the BGA, said on Wednesday in presenting the survey.

Jandura criticized the European Union Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence, which makes it mandatory for large companies to check whether their suppliers are using child labour or damaging the environment.

"It will be a burden for our small and medium companies," Jandura said, arguing that it will increase bureaucracy and legal uncertainties.

He also said the European Union's record in terms of concluding and ratifying new trade agreements is meagre.

"In Brussels, a weighty German voice for free trade is missing," Jandura said.

German exporters see decline in trade in 2023 - BGA (msn.com)

Germany's finance minister: fiscal normalization is just beginning

September 5, 2023

BERLIN (Reuters) -Germany's budget for 2024 is one of the first steps in its return to sustainable finances, made necessary by higher borrowing costs and greater financial burdens in the years to come, German Finance Minister Christian Lindner said on Tuesday.

Europe's biggest economic power is aiming to curb spending that surged in response to COVID-19 and a run-up in energy prices triggered by the Ukraine war.

Lindner plans to comply with Germany's debt brake that constitutionally limits structural budget deficit to 0.35% of economic output. The brake was suspended between 2020 and 2022 to help deal with the crises and restored this year.

"We need to recognise our new fiscal realities," he said while presenting the draft for the 2024 budget and financial plans through 2027 to parliament. "We need to refocus," he told parliament's lower house, the Bundestag.

The draft budget plans net new debt of 16.6 billion euros ($17.82 billion) for 2024, with spending of 445.7 billion euros, down from 476.3 billion estimated for 2023.

"The issue is the return to the debt brake or, more precisely, to sustainable public finances in the long term."

Lindner said the clearest signal change in fiscal policy was necessary was the increase in interest rates.

Germany expects to pay 37 billion euros in interest on its debt next year, which Lindner said was a tenfold increase compared to the year 2021 and an amount twice as high as the budget of the Ministry of Education and Research.

"The message is therefore clear: we simply cannot afford to run up new debts without limit; they would be impossible to finance," Lindner said.

He warned budget negotiations would get tougher in 2028 and beyond, when Berlin will face additional burdens, such as repayment of pandemic-era debts and European Union funds, it did not have to account for in the 2024-2027 medium-term financial plan.

"Behind the horizon line, not yet visible to us, there is an iceberg coming," he said. "We have to change course now, because the iceberg will not change course."

More

Germany's finance minister: fiscal normalization is just beginning (msn.com)

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

Today, should/would  you trust a vaccine “expert?”

FDA, CDC Hid Data on Spike in COVID Cases Among the Vaccinated: Documents

9/3/2023  Updated:  9/5/2023

COVID-19 cases among vaccinated seniors soared in 2021, according to newly disclosed data that was acquired by U.S. health agencies but wasn't presented to the public.

Humetrix Cloud Services was contracted by the U.S. military to analyze vaccine data. The company performed a fresh analysis as authorities considered in 2021 whether COVID-19 vaccine boosters were necessary amid studies finding waning vaccine effectiveness.

Humetrix researchers found that the proportion of total COVID-19 cases among the seniors was increasingly comprised of vaccinated people, according to the newly disclosed documents.

For the week ending on July 31, 2021, post-vaccination COVID-19 cases represented 73 percent of the cases among people 65 and older, the company found. The elderly were 80 percent fully vaccinated at the time.

Breakthrough infection rates were higher among those who were vaccinated early, the researchers found. They estimated that the rates were twice as high in those who had been vaccinated five to six months prior, when compared to people vaccinated three to four months before.

The breakthrough cases started in January 2021, according to the data.

Protection against hospitalization was also fading, researchers discovered.

In the week ending on July 31, 2021, 63 percent of the COVID-19 hospitalizations in seniors were among the fully vaccinated, according to the documents. The same pattern of weaker protection among people who were vaccinated early was found.

Researchers calculated that the vaccine effectiveness (VE) against infection was just 33 percent while the effectiveness against hospitalization had dropped to 57 percent.

Seniors who previously had COVID-19 and recovered were more likely to avoid hospitalization, the researchers also found. Risk factors included serious underlying conditions such as obesity and being in the oldest age group, or older than 85.

The cohort analysis was completed on 20 million Medicare beneficiaries, including 5.6 million seniors who received a primary series of a COVID-19 vaccine.

More

FDA, CDC Hid Data on Spike in COVID Cases Among the Vaccinated: Documents | The Epoch Times

EXCLUSIVE: CDC Repeatedly Advised People With Post-Vaccination Conditions to Get More Doses

9/5/2023  Updated:  9/5/2023

A network composed of experts from inside and outside the U.S. government repeatedly recommended that people who suffered adverse events following COVID-19 vaccination receive additional shots, even when the experts could not rule out the vaccines as the cause of the events, documents obtained by The Epoch Times show.

The network, the Clinical Immunization Safety Assessment (CISA) Project, is run by a doctor who has received extensive funding from pharmaceutical giants, including the top two COVID-19 vaccine manufacturers, according to other records.

In one example, CISA was presented with records showing a 63-year-old woman experienced chronic kidney disease, with symptoms including kidney swelling, after receiving a second dose of Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine.

CISA subject matter experts (SMEs) said that the diagnosis could not be definitively confirmed without a kidney biopsy but that they still felt comfortable using a causality algorithm for the presumed diagnosis developed in part by Dr. Kathryn Edwards, CISA's principal investigator.

Applying the algorithm to the case resulted in an "indeterminate" designation, or an inability to rule out the vaccine causing the problem, in part because there was no evidence of other causes. But that inability did not stop the program from recommending additional shots.

"Weighing the potential risks of COVID-19 vaccination and the benefits of preventing COVID-19, the SMEs provided their opinion that the patient should receive future COVID-19 vaccinations," the Feb. 24, 2023, letter to the patient's doctor stated.

More

EXCLUSIVE: CDC Repeatedly Advised People With Post-Vaccination Conditions to Get More Doses | The Epoch Times

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Perovskite LED unlocks next-level quantum random number generation

By Loz Blain  September 05, 2023

Random numbers are critical to encryption algorithms, but they're nigh-on impossible for computers to generate. Now, Swedish researchers say they've created a new, super-secure quantum random number generator using cheap perovskite LEDs.

The cryptographic algorithms that scramble up digital messages are the bedrock of cybersecurity and the only way we can safely do business online. In order to ensure nobody can crack them, each message is coded with a key. The more randomness, or entropy, that's contained in this key, the more secure the encryption system will be.

The trouble is, computers are so rigidly procedural that it's impossible for them to generate truly random numbers without some external source of randomness. This source of randomness needs to be both extremely random and extremely fast; you can't stand there flipping coins all day.

So for highly secure encryption, special external hardware systems – hardware random number generators – are used, which tap into physical phenomena that can't be predicted even in theory: quantum mechanics at the atomic or sub-atomic level. These Quantum Random Number Generators (QRNGs) are today's gold standard of cryptography.

Researchers at Linköping University in Sweden say they've found a way to use perovskite – the cheap, enviromentally friendly wonder-material that's been driving so much progress in solar cell efficiency of late – as part of a cheap, high-bandwidth, next-gen QRNG system.

Perovskite, says the team, can now be fabricated into efficient, room-temperature light-emitting diodes (PeLEDs) with highly tunable optical properties and cheap, easy and flexible fabrication processes, so the material is viewed as a potential game-changer in next-gen displays, lighting and optical communications.

In a new study, the team showed it can also be used as a high-quality source of quantum randomness, by taking "projective measurements on weak coherent polarization states produced from the PeLED."

Remarkably, this perovskite QRNG system can even certify a degree of private randomness even in the case where somebody's eavesdropping on the generator and has taken control of the detectors and employs quantum entanglement to guess the outcomes.

----The team obtained extremely high quality randomness, measured across a bunch of different metrics, at a rate of more than 10 Mbit per second – and under the experimental conditions, was able to guarantee that about 71% of the bits generated were also certified private even in the case of a side-channel attack on the detectors.

The lifetime of the perovskite material isn't great at the minute; about 22 days. But the team is moving to develop the material further, in hopes of removing lead from the formulation and greatly extending the lifespan.

The team hopes to develop this technology into a product so small, cheap and robust that it could eventually be used in consumer electronics. It believes it'll have the first iterations commercialized and ready for cybersecurity applications within five years.

The research is open access in the journal Nature Communications Physics.

Source: University of Linnkoping

Perovskite LED unlocks next-level quantum random number generation (newatlas.com)

If all else fails, immortality can always be assured by spectacular error.

John Kenneth Galbraith.