Baltic
Dry Index. 1694 +8 Brent Crude 94.92
Spot Gold 1897 US 2 Year Yield 5.04 -0.05 ??
The
professors who taught Efficient Market Theory said that someone throwing darts
at the stock tables could select stock portfolio having prospects just as good
as one selected by the brightest, most hard-working securities analyst.
Observing correctly that the market was frequently efficient, they went on to
conclude incorrectly that it was always efficient.
Warren
Buffett.
In the stock casinos, more gloom and doom. What if reality returns to stocks? What if the last three trading days of September turn into a rout?
Look away from that Brent Crude oil price now.
Why alone did the US 2 year yield drop?
Asia markets
fall as investors digest China industrial data and Australian inflation figures
UPDATED WED, SEP 27 2023 12:41 AM
EDT
Asia-Pacific
markets were mixed as investors assessed China’s industrial data and
Australia’s August inflation figures due on Wednesday.
Australia’s weighted inflation
rate climbed 5.2% year on year in August, in line with expectations from
economists polled by Reuters, while headline inflation came in at 5.5%.
The Australian S&P/ASX 200 slipped
0.14%, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 dropped
0.77%, leading losses in Asia and the Topix slid 0.76%.
South Korea’s Kospi was 0.1% lower, but the
Kosdaq was 0.37% up.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index rose
0.56%, reversing losses from Tuesday, while the mainland CSI 300 index also
gained marginally.
Overnight in the U.S., all three major indexes saw a sell off after the
latest home sales and consumer confidence reports stoked concern over the state
of the U.S. economy, with the Dow
Jones Industrial Average seeing
its worst day since March.
The Dow lost 1.14% and closed below its 200-day moving
average for the first time since May. The S&P 500 slipped
1.47%, closing below 4,300 for the first time since June 9, while the Nasdaq Composite pulled
back 1.57%.
China industrial profits see softer fall in August
For the first eight months of the year, profits at China’s industrial firms extended
a double-digit drop, but the pace of declines eased slightly in August.
Profits fell 11.7% year on year as of August,
a smaller contraction than the 15.5% drop for the first seven months.
China’s National Bureau of Statistics said
the profits of industrial enterprises climbed 17.2% year on year in August,
which is the first monthly growth since the second half of 2022.
Asia
stock markets today: Live updates (cnbc.com)
Dow sheds
nearly 400 points in worst day since March as economic worries return: Live
updates
UPDATED TUE, SEP 26 2023 4:35 PM EDT
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell
Tuesday after the latest home sales and consumer confidence reports stoked
concern over the state of the U.S. economy.
The Dow lost
388.00 points, or 1.14%, to 33,618.88 in its worst day since March. The
30-stock index closed below its 200-day moving average for the first time since
May.
The S&P 500 slid
1.47% to 4,273.53, closing below 4,300 for the first time since June 9.
Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite pulled
back 1.57% to 13,063.61.
Amazon shares
fell 4% — the most of the mega-cap tech stocks — after the Federal Trade
Commission filed an antitrust
lawsuit, saying the online retailer keeps prices artificially high
and hurts rivals.
August new home sales missed
expectations. Homes under contract totaled 675,000 for the month, down 8.7%
from July, according to the Commerce Department.
Economists polled by Dow Jones anticipated a total of 695,000, which would have
represented a 2.7% fall from unrevised July totals.
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index fell
to 103 in September, down from 108.7 in August. Economists were anticipating
105.5, according to consensus estimates from Dow Jones. The expectations index
tumbled to 73.7, below the level that observers associate with recessions.
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warned
interest rates may need to rise further to tamp down inflation, comments that
added to bearish sentiment Tuesday. Bank stocks declined, with the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) falling
more than 1%. Wells Fargo shares
dropped about 2%, while Morgan Stanley fell
1%.
Those moves would add to the
market’s losses for the month. The Nasdaq Composite is down nearly 7% in
September, while the S&P 500 and Dow lost more than 5% and 3%,
respectively. Among the catalysts dragging stocks lower this month is the
Federal Reserve’s warning that it sees fewer rate cuts next year. The news
pushed the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield to levels not seen since 2007.
More
Stock
market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)
European
markets head for mixed open as global data continues to cause concern
UPDATED WED, SEP 27 2023 12:12 AM EDT
European markets are heading for a mixed open
Wednesday as investors continue to assess inflation, interest rates and the
health of the global economy.
Asia-Pacific
markets were mixed overnight as investors digested China’s
industrial data and Australia’s inflation figures. U.S.
stock futures traded near the flatline Tuesday night.
All three major U.S. indexes saw
a sell-off Tuesday after the latest home sales and consumer confidence reports
missed expectations, stoking concern over the state of the U.S. economy.
European
markets live updates: Stocks, data and earnings (cnbc.com)
Stock futures are little changed after Tuesday’s
sharp losses: Live updates
UPDATED TUE, SEP 26 2023 8:10 PM
EDT
U.S. stock futures traded near the flatline
Tuesday night.
Dow
Jones Industrial Average futures rose
by 34 points, or 0.1%. Futures linked to the S&P 500 inched
up 0.1%, while Nasdaq 100
futures added
0.1%.
Shares of Costco fell 2.5% in
after-hours trading. For its fiscal
fourth quarter, the membership club reported comparable sales grew
1.1% year over year, but advanced 0.2% in the U.S. Separately, Costco beat
analysts’ expectations on the top and bottom lines for the period.
During the main trading session,
the 30-stock Dow fell
388 points, or 1.14%, in its worst day since March. The S&P 500 declined
1.47%, while the Nasdaq Composite slid
1.57%.
These losses came after new home
sales and consumer confidence data missed economists’ estimates. Homes under
contract came in at 675,000 for August, according to data from the Census
Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. Economists’
estimates called for 695,000, per Dow Jones.
Meanwhile, the Conference Board’s
consumer confidence index declined to 103 in September from 108.7 in August.
Economists polled by Dow Jones had forecasted 105.5.
“Consumers remain worried about
inflation and the impact of higher borrowing costs. This also weighed on
housing market activities as mortgage rates tick higher,” said U.S. Bank Asset
Management senior investment strategist Rob Haworth. “However, still-high accumulated
consumer savings balances, a strong labor market and solid wage growth are
providing some support as we near the fourth quarter of the year.”
The market is currently living up
to its “seasonally weak September,” said Blanke Schein Wealth Management’s
chief investment officer Robert Schein. Indeed, the S&P 500 is off 5.2% in
September, while the Dow is down 3.2%. The Nasdaq is the laggard of the three,
losing nearly 7% this month.
Schein expects the volatility to extend into
October, before a shift. “Earnings season begins in mid-October and if
earnings results are better-than-feared, that just may be the catalyst needed
to end this market correction,” he said.
Economic reports on deck
Wednesday include August’s durable goods orders. Economists expect they
declined 0.5%, according to Dow Jones. Payrolls company Paychex will
issue its earnings report before the bell, followed by a highly-anticipated
quarterly release from Micron Technology after
the close.
Stock
market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)
In other news, a Fed “dove” turns into hawk.
JMPC CEO Dimon sees the Fed at 7 percent.
The size of China’s property crisis.
Fed’s Neel
Kashkari sees 40% chance of ‘meaningfully higher’ interest rates
Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari
thinks there’s nearly a 50-50 chance that interest rates will need to move
significantly higher to bring down inflation.
In an essay the central bank official posted Tuesday, he said
there’s a strong case to be made that the U.S. economy is headed toward a
“high-pressure equilibrium.” Such a condition would involve continued growth
featuring strong consumer spending and “the economic flywheel spinning.”
In that instance, the inflation rate falls but stays above the Fed’s 2%
target, posing a challenge for policymakers.
“The case supporting
this scenario is that most of the disinflationary gains we have observed to
date have been due to supply-side factors, such as workers reentering the labor
force and supply chains resolving, rather than monetary policy restraining demand,”
he wrote in a post titled, “Policy Has Tightened a Lot. Is It Enough?”
Noting that
rate-sensitive areas such as housing and autos have held strong despite Fed
tightening, Kashkari remarked, “These dynamics raise the question, How tight is
policy right now? If policy were truly tight, would we observe such robust
activity?”
Services inflation,
excluding the cost of renting shelter, has been coming down, but has otherwise
remained elevated, raising longer-term concerns.
“Once supply factors have fully recovered, is policy tight enough
to complete the job of bringing services inflation back to target? It might not
be, in which case we would have to push the federal funds rate higher,
potentially meaningfully higher,” Kashkari said. “Today I put a 40 percent
probability on this scenario.”
---- However, the comments come the same day as The Times of India published an interview with JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, in which
the bank executive entertains the possibility that the
Fed may have to take its benchmark rate up to 7%. The fed funds rate
currently is targeted in a range between 5.25%-5.5%.
Several other Fed officials
recently have stated they, at the least, expect
to keep rates elevated for a prolonged period of time.
For his part, Kashkari had long
been known as one of the more dovish members of the rate-setting Federal Open
Market Committee, meaning he favors lower interest rates and looser monetary
policy.
More
Fed's
Kashkari sees 40% chance of 'meaningfully higher' interest rates (cnbc.com)
The
Massive Scale of China’s Property Sector
The risks that follow as China’s largest real estate company wavers
near default
PUBLISHED SEPT. 26, 2023
China’s real estate sector, once a booming industry and a key driver of
the country's economic growth, has been in a state of crisis since a
government-led campaign to trim debt and curb speculative investment. The
sector’s cash crunch was once again under the spotlight when leading developer
Country Garden sought to delay bond payments in early August. It has 108.7
billion yuan of debt due in the next 12 months.
The seeds of the crisis were sown in 2020 when regulators tightened
policy in the sector by imposing caps on three key debt ratios, making it more
difficult for developers to secure credit. As a result, companies including
Evergrande found themselves locked out of credit markets and they started
defaulting.
Country Garden’s risk of default rings alarm bells because of its size;
It was the sector’s largest company by attributable sales, 356.9 billion yuan
in 2022. It has 3,121 projects at different development stages across Mainland
China, both commercial and residential.
The physical size of Country Garden’s real estate portfolio is enormous. As of the end of 2022, a total of 127.8 million sq. meters of gross floor area was under development, of which more than 60% was already sold.
The distress in China’s real estate sector gathered steam in late 2021, when giant developer Evergrande first defaulted. The company reported a loss of 476 billion yuan in 2021 after recording a profit every year prior. Its losses have narrowed since, but the company remains in the red. Evergrande reported a loss of 33 billion yuan for the first six months of 2023.
Sunac China and CIFI Holdings, which first defaulted last year, have reported significant losses in 2022 as well. Though Country Garden has so far dodged default, it reported a loss of over 6 billion yuan in 2022 and its losses deepened further in the first six months of this year.
The ballooning debt crisis could delay the prospect of a recovery of
both the property market and the broader Chinese economy, in which real estate
is a core pillar.
Country Garden, once considered to be financially sound and stable,
failed to pay the interest on two of its bonds due in August and narrowly
avoided default by making the interest payment hours before a 30-day grace
period ended on September 5.
It also failed to pay an interest of $15 million on a bond that was due
in September but was granted a 30-day grace period.
More
China Risks Property Debt (reuters.com)
Pressure piles on
China Evergrande with report chairman under police surveillance
September 27,
20235:00 AM GMT+1
HONG KONG, Sept 27
(Reuters) - The chairman of China Evergrande Group (3333.HK) has been placed under police
surveillance, Bloomberg News reported on Wednesday, ratcheting up pressure on
the embattled developer whose outlook has already darkened significantly this
week.
Citing people with
knowledge of the matter, the report said Hui Ka Yan was taken away by police earlier this
month and is being monitored at a designated location.
It was not clear why Hui was placed
under residential surveillance, Bloomberg News said, adding the move was a type
of police action that falls short of formal detention or arrest and does not
mean Hui will be charged with a crime.
Reuters could not immediately verify
the Bloomberg report. Evergrande did not immediately respond to a Reuters
request for comment.
Evergrande is the world's most
indebted property developer and is at the centre of a crisis in China's
property sector, which has seen a string of debt defaults since late 2021 that
has dragged on the growth of the world's second-largest economy.
More
Pressure
piles on China Evergrande with report chairman under police surveillance |
Reuters
Finally, cryptocurrency anyone? Still, is it
possible to scam a scam?
Hong Kong cryptocurrency firm loses US$200 million in largest theft of its kind this year
Mixin,
which claims to have 1 million users using the network for transferring digital
assets, says it has been attacked by hackers
The
hack is the 10th largest crypto hack of all time and the biggest so far in
2023, according to blockchain research firm Elliptic
Published: 9:42am,
26 Sep, 2023
Hackers stole
around US$200 million from cryptocurrency firm Mixin early on Saturday, the
company said on social media platform X on Monday, in what researchers say is
the largest crypto theft so far this year.
Mixin, which
lists its location on LinkedIn as Hong Kong, said the database of its network’s
cloud service provider was “attacked by hackers, resulting in the loss of some
assets” and that “the funds involved are approximately US$200 million”.
Mixin describes
itself as a network for transferring digital assets. It has one million users,
according to its website.
It said on X, formerly known as Twitter, that it had stopped allowing users to withdraw their funds from the network, but that transfers were not affected and that services will reopen once the vulnerabilities are fixed.
Mixin will announce a solution for “how to deal with the lost assets”, it said.
At US$200 million, the hack would be the 10th largest crypto hack of all time, by volume of crypto stolen, and the biggest so far in 2023, according to blockchain research firm Elliptic.
Last year hackers stole crypto worth as much as US$3.8 billion, making it the worst year on record, according to blockchain researchers Chainalysis.
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Moody's warns government shutdown would 'negatively'
affect U.S. credit
SEPT. 25, 2023 / 4:40 PM
Sept. 25 (UPI) -- Moody's Investors Service warned Monday that a government shutdown
triggered by a political impasse among House Republicans would negatively
impact its current AAA credit rating for U.S. sovereign debt.
The credit
rating firm said in a research note that even a short-lived government shutdown
coming after this year's debt ceiling "brinksmanship" would "underscore the weakness of U.S.
institutional and governance strength relative to other AAA-rated sovereigns
that we have highlighted in recent years."
Further,
the ratings firm said, a prolonged shutdown "would be disruptive to the
U.S. economy and financial markets, with potential negative ramifications for
the sovereign's debt affordability."
A possible
shutdown is
looming beginning next week
as a group of hard-right Republican House lawmakers who support former
President Donald Trump are
blocking any progress on a series of necessary appropriations bills as well as
a continuing resolution to fund the government unless their demands are met.
House Speaker Kevin McCarthy has so far been unable to forge a
compromise with the group, who have linked their support to ideologically
driven conditions that are not likely to approved by a bipartisan majority in
the U.S. Senate or by President Joe
Biden.
---- The political
instability highlighted earlier this year by the debt ceiling fight in August
prompted the Fitch credit rating agency to downgrade long-term U.S. debt from its top-ranked AAA
to AA+.
The
Standard & Poor's agency downgraded U.S. debt from AAA to AA+ in 2011 following
a similar debt ceiling crisis between congressional Republicans and
then-president Barack Obama.
Moody's
warns government shutdown would 'negatively' affect U.S. credit - UPI.com
Oil could hit $150,
sending ‘shock through system,’ says top shale CEO
Published: Sept. 25, 2023
at 4:04 p.m. ET
That’s Doug Lawler, chief
executive of Continental Resources, the shale-drilling giant controlled by
billionaire Harold Hamm, telling Bloomberg News on Monday that crude prices
are set to remain elevated and could press to the $120- to $150-a-barrel range
without new production.
More price pressure is coming, he said, unless
policies are put in place to encourage more output.
West Texas Intermediate
crude CL00, -1.00% CL.1, -1.01%, the U.S. benchmark, edged back below $90 a barrel on
Monday but remains up more than 34% from its 52-week low of $66.74 hit on March
17. Brent crude BRN00, -0.99%, the global benchmark, has rallied 30% from a 52-week
low of $71.84 a barrel set on June 12.
Lawler said he thought oil “absolutely” would hit
the $100-a-barrel threshold and that he expects to see continued volatility in
the $80- to $100-a-barrel price environment.
Oil could hit $150, sending 'shock through system,' says top shale CEO - MarketWatch
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
London's Gatwick Airport limits flights this week due to
staff illness, including COVID-19
Gatwick
Airport, London’s second-busiest, is limiting flights this week, partly because
of an outbreak of COVID-19 within air traffic control
September 26, 2023
Gatwick Airport, London's second-busiest,
is limiting flights this week, partly because of an outbreak of COVID-19 within
air traffic control.
In a
statement late Monday, the airport said a daily 800-flight limit, affecting
both departures and arrivals, has been imposed until Sunday.
Gatwick
said around 30% of staff in the division within air traffic control are off
sick for a variety of reasons, including COVID-19.
It said the
daily cap will prevent last-minute cancellations and delays for passengers
while National Air Traffic Services, or NATS, gets back to normal.
Stewart Wingate, the airport's chief executive, said the decision “means
we can prevent as much disruptions as possible.”
The
largest number of cancellations will be on Friday, Sept. 29, with 33 departures
affected.
NATS
apologized to passengers but said that a variety of medical reasons meant it
can't manage the normal flows in and out of the airport.
Though
all the COVID-19 restrictions in Britain were lifted
last year, people are advised to stay away from work if they have tested
positive for the coronavirus.
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Watery material makes windows selectively block light
and/or heat
Michael Irving September 25, 2023
Windows are
pretty basic necessities for letting in light and heat, but you don’t always
want both at once. Now engineers at North Carolina State University (NCSU) have
developed a new material that allows windows to easily switch between three
modes.
The new
dynamic windows would be able to switch between a normal transparent mode that
lets in light and heat, a mode that blocks heat but remains transparent to
light, and a tinted mode that blocks some light but not heat. That should keep
users covered in all seasons.
The key to it all is a little
material called tungsten oxide, which often shows up in dynamic windows that
work on the principle of electrochromism.
Normally transparent, tungsten oxide becomes darker and blocks light when you
apply an electrical signal, making it handy for windows that tint
on demand.
But in the new study, the
NCSU researchers discovered a brand new trick hiding up its sleeve. Adding
water turns it into tungsten oxide hydrate, and when this is used in
electrochromic windows it gives it an extra setting.
When switched off, it remains
transparent to light and heat – ideal for those drab winter days when you need
as much of both as possible. When some electrons and lithium ions are injected
into the material, it first goes through a phase where it blocks
infrared light (felt as heat) while
remaining transparent to visible wavelengths of light. And finally, as more
electrons pass into the material it transitions into a dark phase where it
blocks both visible and infrared light, perfect for summer.
Exactly why tungsten oxide
hydrate works like this remains uncertain, but the NCSU scientists have a
hypothesis.
More
Watery material makes windows selectively block light
and/or heat (newatlas.com)
The
market, like the Lord, helps those who help themselves. But, unlike the Lord,
the market does not forgive those who know not what they do.
Warren
Buffett.
No comments:
Post a Comment