Baltic Dry Index. 1209 +23 Brent Crude 91.00
Spot Gold 1922 US 2 Year Yield 4.97 -0.01
I guess I should warn you, if I turn out to be particularly clear, you've probably misunderstood what I've said.
Alan Greenspan.
In the Asian stock casinos, another relief rally after almost bankrupt giant Chinese property company Country Garden was granted more time to come up with money to pay off some of its falling due debts. What other choice did the creditors really have?
But with yet more falling due debts stretching off to the horizon and far beyond, today’s relief rally in Country Garden’s stock is probably a last chance saloon exit rally for the wise.
Country Garden
secures bondholder reprieve, sources say; shares soar
September 12, 2023
4:55 AM GMT+1
SHANGHAI/BEIJING,
Sept 12 (Reuters) - China's largest private property developer Country Garden (2007.HK) won
approval from its creditors to extend repayments on six onshore bonds by three
years, two sources familiar with the matter said on Tuesday, sending shares up
as much as 10%.
The
bondholder reprieve came as investors are closely
monitoring whether China's latest government stimulus measures
including lowering existing mortgage rates and offering preferential loans for
first-home purchases in big cities might be enough to restore consumer
confidence and sow the seeds for an eventual property market recovery.
Country
Garden's onshore creditors voted on Monday for proposals
by the distressed developer to extend repayments on eight onshore
bonds worth 10.8 billion yuan ($1.48 billion) by three years, sources said,
marking the latest relief to China's crisis-hit property sector.
In the voting,
which concluded by 10 p.m. Hong Kong time (1400 GMT) on Monday, creditors
approved extending six out of the eight bonds, the two sources said.
The other two
bonds will see voting delayed, the two sources said, asking not to be named
because they were not authorised to speak with media.
Country Garden
did not immediately reply to a request for comment.
The
company's Hong Kong-listed shares surged after the news but are down nearly 60%
since the start of the year. The broader Hang Seng Mainland Properties Index (.HSMPI) also
reversed earlier losses and was up by 0.75%.
More
Country
Garden secures bondholder reprieve, sources say; shares soar | Reuters
Asian stocks steady,
Japan, China central banks interrupt dollar's ascent
By Tom
Westbrook September
12, 2023 5:11 AM GMT+1
SINGAPORE, Sept
12 (Reuters) - Asian stock markets edged up on Tuesday while comments from
central banks in China and Japan interrupted the dollar's ascent, giving
traders a breather ahead of U.S. inflation data that could influence when or if
the Federal Reserve raises rates further.
The
yen notched its best day against the dollar in two months overnight, after Bank
of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said
policymakers might have enough economic information by the year-end to
determine that short-term rates will need to rise.
The
yuan had its best day in six months after authorities vowed to correct one-way
moves and Reuters reported the central bank had stepped up scrutiny of
dollar buying.
Both, however,
remain near their weakest levels of the year and with the yuan at 7.3016 per
dollar in offshore trade and the yen was last at 146.68 per dollar, a little
weaker than its best level on Monday.
Japanese
government bonds remained under pressure on Tuesday, with 10-year JGB yields up
1 basis point to a fresh high of 0.71%.
Investors
in China drew some comfort from news that the country's largest private
property developer Country Garden (2007.HK) has won
approval from creditors to extend repayments on six onshore bonds by
three years.
That
lifted Hong Kong's Hang Seng Mainland Properties Index (.HSMPI) as
much as 1.5%, reversing an earlier drop of more than 2%.
"This is
likely just another case of kicking the can down the road, but it seems to have
slowed the bleeding on the property index at least," said Matt Simpson,
senior market analyst at City Index.
MSCI's
broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) gained
0.12%. Japan's Nikkei (.N225) rose 0.61%, with markets looking to U.S.
inflation data and this week's European Central Bank meeting to set interest
rate expectations and the mood.
Due on
Wednesday, markets are expecting the U.S. figures to show annualised core
inflation falling to 4.3% in August though the headline number is seen ticking
up to 3.6%.
"A
lower-than-expected print may slow the U.S. dollar's rise while higher print
could potentially un-nerve risk sentiments as it would reinforce market
expectations for further rate hikes, and this could fuel dollar strength,"
said OCBC strategist Christopher Wong.
Interest-rate
futures markets are pricing about a 45% chance of another U.S. rate hike by
year's end.
More
Asian
stocks steady, Japan, China central banks interrupt dollar's ascent | Reuters
European stocks
head for higher open as positive momentum continues
UPDATED TUE, SEP 12 2023 12:54 AM
EDT
European stock markets are expected to open
higher Tuesday, building on the previous session’s positive momentum, as we get
into a busy week for economic data.
U.S. inflation data is the main
one to watch, with the latest consumer price index figures due Wednesday and
producer price index Thursday.
Investor sentiment in the U.S.
got a boost yesterday after a report in The Wall Street Journal on Sunday said
there was consensus among Federal Reserve officials not to raise rates at this
week’s meeting.
The European Central Bank’s next
rate decision Thursday is the main focus. The market is pricing in a roughly
40% chance the central bank will hike 25 basis points to 4.00%, but economists
predict it will be a close call, Reuters reported.
European markets live updates: Stock moves, data and earnings (cnbc.com)
In other news, more bad news for China’s
steel works and China generally.
India imposes
anti-dumping duty on some Chinese steel for 5 years
September 11, 2023
7:17 PM GMT+1
Sept 11 (Reuters)
- India on Monday imposed an anti-dumping duty on some Chinese steel for five
years, according to a government notification.
On
Sept 4, India's steel secretary, Nagendra Nath Sinha, said New
Delhi was monitoring the steel imports situation after the steel industry
raised concerns over potential dumping by Chinese sellers.
During April-July,
China was the second biggest steel exporter to India, after South Korea,
selling 0.6 million metric tons, up 62% from the same period a year earlier.
In all, India
imported 2 million metric tons of finished steel in the period, the highest
since 2020 and up 23% from a year earlier.
China, the
world's top steel producer, exported mostly cold- rolled coil or sheets to
India.
India
imposes anti-dumping duty on some Chinese steel for 5 years | Reuters
China 2023 GDP growth
forecast cut to 5.0%, 4.5% in 2024 - Reuters poll
By Vivek
Mishra September 12, 2023 5:43
AM GMT+1
BENGALURU, Sept
12 (Reuters) - China's economy will grow less than previously thought this year
and next as a struggling property market dogs what was once the world's growth
engine, according to a Reuters poll of economists who said the risks were skewed
to further downgrades.
The world's
second-largest economy has been struggling after a brief post-COVID recovery,
dragged by huge debt due to decades of infrastructure investment and a property
downturn, posing risks not only to itself but also to the global economy.
With 70% of
household wealth tied up in the ailing property market, coupled with rising
youth unemployment, weak consumption demand and the reluctance by depressed
private firms to invest, policymakers have been fighting an uphill job in
reviving growth.
"The
primary culprit is the property sector. This source of growth has now
evaporated and won't be coming back," said Julian Evans-Pritchard, head of
China economics at Capital Economics in Singapore.
"We have
long been more bearish than most...but even we have been surprised by the speed
at which growth has declined. The deceleration probably still has further to
run."
The Sept. 4-11
Reuters poll of 76 analysts, based in and outside mainland China, predicted the
economy would grow 5.0% this year, lower than 5.5% forecast in a July survey.
Forecasts ranged between 4.5% and 5.5%.
While nearly all
economists lowered their growth outlook for this year and next compared with
the previous survey, the magnitude of those cuts was still marginal, leaving
room for more downgrades.
Some
economists cautioned the government's growth target of around 5% for this year
could be missed as the drip-feed of policy
stimulus from Beijing would not be enough to stabilise the economy.
While recent
data showed signs of improvement in the economy, some economists said more
policy support was needed for the ailing property sector. The sector accounts
for roughly a quarter of China's economy.
Growth was
forecast to slow to 4.5% next year and 4.3% in 2025
More
China
2023 GDP growth forecast cut to 5.0%, 4.5% in 2024 - Reuters poll | Reuters
Unrelenting rain
causes more than 100 landslides, traps residents in floodwaters in southern
China
September 12, 2023
3:53 AM GMT+1
BEIJING, Sept 12 (Reuters) - Days of
relentless rain from the remnants of former Typhoon Haikui have caused more
than 100 landslides, trapped about 1,360 residents in floodwaters and killed at
least seven people in China's south, said state media.
Typhoon Haikui hit southern China
eight days ago and has since been downgraded to a tropical storm, but
unrelenting rain continues to deluge southwestern Guangxi.
Incessant storms in the last three
days in most areas of Yulin city caused 115 landslides that destroyed roads,
uprooting trees, inducing floods and leading authorities to issue a warning of
emergencies on national and provincial trunk highways, state media said.
Three people remain missing and rescue
operations were ongoing.
Further south near the coast, Beihai
city was inundated from widespread downpour. Rescuers were seen treading
thigh-deep in waterlogged areas evacuating residents in boats. About 1,360
people were trapped on Tuesday, state media said.
The city's observatory raised its
storm warning to the highest in a four-tier alert system after more than 101mm
(4 inches) rain poured in a three-hour period on Tuesday morning, and flagged
risks of flash floods, geological disasters and waterlogging in urban and rural
areas.
Haikui, which weakened to a tropical
storm after making landfall in southeastern Fujian province on Sept. 5, had
last week wrecked havoc in the populous city of Shenzhen dumping historic
rainfall since records began in 1952. Neighbouring Hong Kong was also pelted by
the worst storm in 140 years.
Scientists warn that typhoons hitting China are
becoming more intense and their paths growing more complex, escalating risk of
disaster, even in coastal cities such as Shenzhen that already have strong
flood defence capabilities.
China Meteorological Administration
forecast heavy rains in the south and southeast parts of Guangxi on Tuesday and
Wednesday, with storms in the southwest. Localised hourly precipitation could
hit 70mm (2.76 inches) in some areas, it said.
The national forecaster also warned
relevant departments and people in Guangdong and Guangxi to be alert to any
delayed effects of disasters from frequent rainfall in recent days.
Finally,
a new economic reality warning from a most unlikely source.
Jamie Dimon
says it’s a ‘huge mistake’ to think economy will boom with so many risks out
there
JPMorgan
Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said
Monday that while the U.S. economy is doing well, it would be a “huge mistake”
to believe that it will last for years.
Healthy consumer balance sheets and
rising wages are supporting the economy for now, but there are risks ahead,
said Dimon, who was speaking at a financial conference in New York. Topping his
concerns include central banks reining in liquidity programs via “quantitative
tightening,” the Ukraine war, and governments around the world
“spending like drunken sailors,” the executive said.
“To say the consumer is strong today, meaning you are going to have a
booming environment for years, is a huge mistake,” he said.
The world’s largest economy has
defied expectations for a downturn for the past year, including from
prognosticators like Dimon, head of the biggest U.S. bank by assets. Last year,
he warned that a potential economic
hurricane was on the way, citing the same concerns around
central banks and the Ukraine conflict. But the U.S. economy has proven
resilient, leading more economists to expect that a recession might be avoided.
“Businesses feel pretty good
because they look at their current results,” Dimon said. “But those things
change, and we don’t know what the full effect of all this is going to be 12 or
18 months from now.”
While JPMorgan and other banks have
been “over-earning” on lending for years because of historically low default
rates, strains were emerging in parts of real estate and subprime auto lending,
Dimon said.
“If and when you have a recession,
which you’re eventually going to have, you’ll have a real normal credit cycle,”
Dimon said. “In a normal credit cycle, something always does worse than”
expected, he added.
More
Jamie Dimon: Huge mistake to think economy will boom for years (cnbc.com)
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Germany predicted
to be the only major European economy to contract this year as recession
lingers
PUBLISHED MON, SEP 11 2023 5:03
AM EDT
Germany is set for a prolonged recession this year
— the only major European economy to experience an economic contraction during
2023, according to fresh forecasts by the European Commission, the executive
arm of the EU.
Europe’s largest economy is predicted to post a
0.4% fall in economic activity this year — that’s 0.6 percentage point lower
than an estimate made in May, according to the commission, which published new
forecasts Monday. The institution also cut its growth expectations for Germany
in 2024, from 1.4% to 1.1%.
The German economy has struggled in the wake
of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with Berlin having to, very quickly, end years of energy
dependency on the Kremlin. The International Monetary Fund said in July
that Germany would likely contract by 0.3% this year.
More
Germany predicted to be the only major European
economy to contract (cnbc.com)
Why the United Auto
Workers union is poised to strike major US car makers this week
Updated Mon,
11 September 2023 at 12:50 am BST
DETROIT (AP) —
About 146,000 U.S. auto workers are set to go on strike this week if General
Motors, Ford and Stellantis fail to meet their demands for big pay raises and
the restoration of concessions the workers made years ago when the companies
were in financial trouble.
Shawn Fain,
the combative president of the United Auto Workers union, has threatened to
strike any of the three companies that hasn't reached an agreement by the time
its contract with the union expires at 11:59 p.m. Eastern time Thursday.
Both sides
began exchanging wage and benefit proposals last week. Though some incremental
progress appears to have been made, a final agreement could come too late to
avoid walkouts by UAW workers at factories in multiple states. Any strike would
likely cause significant disruptions for auto production in the United States.
Here's a
rundown of the issues that are standing in the way of new contract agreements
and what consumers could face if a prolonged strike occurs:
WHAT DO
WORKERS WANT?
The union has
asked for 46% raises in general pay over four years — an increase that would
elevate a top-scale assembly plant worker from $32 an hour now to about $47. In
addition, the UAW has demanded an end to varying tiers of wages for factory
jobs; a 32-hour week with 40 hours of pay; the restoration of traditional
defined-benefit pensions for new hires who now receive only 401(k)-style
retirement plans; and a return of cost-of-living pay raises, among other
benefits.
Perhaps most
important to the union is that it be allowed to represent workers at 10
electric vehicle battery factories, most of which are being built by joint
ventures between automakers and South Korean battery makers. The union wants
those plants to receive top UAW wages. In part, that is because workers who now
make components for internal combustion engines will need a place to work as
the auto industry increasingly transitions to EVs.
“Our
union," Fain has said, “isn’t going to stand by while they replace oil
barons with battery barons.”
Currently, UAW
workers who were hired after 2007 don’t receive defined-benefit pensions. Their
health benefits are less generous, too. For years, the union gave up general
pay raises and lost cost-of-living wage increases to help the companies control
costs. Though top-scale assembly workers earn $32.32 an hour, temporary workers
start at just under $17. Still, full-time workers have received profit-sharing
checks ranging this year from $9,716 at Ford to $14,760 at Stellantis.
Fain himself
has acknowledged that the union's demands are “audacious." But he has
argued that the richly profitable automakers can afford to raise workers' pay
significantly to make up for what the union gave up to help the companies
withstand the 2007-2009 financial crisis and the Great Recession.
Over the past
decade, the Detroit Three have emerged as robust profit-makers. They’ve
collectively posted net income of $164 billion, $20 billion of it this year.
The CEOs of all three major automakers earn multiple millions in annual
compensation.
WHAT HAVE THE
COMPANIES PROPOSED?
A contract
offer from Ford proposed a cumulative 10% pay raise over the course of the
four-year contract, plus several lump-sum payments, including $6,000 to cover
inflation. GM has offered 10% as well, with similar lump sums. Stellantis
(formerly Fiat Chrysler) offered 14.5% wage increases over four years, without
lump sums in the wage package. But it proposed lump sums to cover inflation.
All offered contract-ratification bonuses but rejected the shortened work week
the UAW requested.
Under its
proposal, Ford said it calculated that average annual pay, including overtime
and lump-sum bonuses, would rise from an average of $78,000 a year last year to
more than $92,000 in the first year of a new contract.
The companies
have rebuffed the union's demands as too expensive. The automakers' argument is
that they will be absorbing enormous capital expenses in the coming years to
continue to build combustion-engine vehicles while at the same time designing
electric vehicles and building battery and assembly plants for the future.
They also
contend that too lavish a UAW contract would saddle them with expenses that
would force up the retail prices of vehicles, pricing Detroit automakers above
competitors from Europe and Asia. Outside analysts say that when wages and
benefits are included, Detroit Three assembly plant workers now receive around
$60 an hour while workers at Asian automaker plants in the U.S. get $40 to $45.
More
Why the United Auto Workers union is poised to strike major US car makers this week (yahoo.com)
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Covid-19: Should we fear a new wave?
Mon, 11 September 2023 at 8:00 am BST
Covid-19 is back in the news, a sign that the epidemic has not yet had its last word. At the end of August, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) recorded an increase in the transmission of Covid-19 within the European Union.
In 16 of
the 21 countries analysed, an increase in case rates was observed, particularly
among people aged 80 and over.
"There
are signs of increased transmission in certain parts of Europe. By 20 August
2023, the number of cases of Covid-19 had increased by 11 per cent compared
with the previous 28 days", Dr Hans Kluge, WHO Regional Director for
Europe, told Euronews.
According
to Quique Bassat, an epidemiologist and researcher at ISGlobal and ICREA,
"over the last few months, during the summer, we have seen an increase in
the transmission of Covid-19 in several European countries.
"In
Spain, for example, we have seen a significant increase in transmission and a
rise in hospitalisations linked to Covid-19. This is attributed to the
emergence of new variants, which are more contagious than previous ones".
The
epidemiologist also added that "every week (or so, editor's note), a new
sub-variant seems to emerge, appearing more dangerous or even more contagious
than the previous ones."
Major risks envisaged for winter?
As summer
draws to a close and temperatures begin to fall, experts are drawing attention
to the possibility of another wave of Covid-19 this winter.
This concern stems from experience in previous years when respiratory viruses
have tended to proliferate during the colder months.
"What
we know from past experience in previous winters is that every time the cold
sets in, new respiratory viruses appear, including traditional ones such as
influenza and respiratory syncytial virus in children, all of which tend to
spread during the winter season," explains Quique Bassat.
"If we add to these viruses the burden of Covid-19, the
healthcare system is put under severe strain. And when it's under strain, it
suffers. That's what we all fear".
More
Covid-19: Should we fear a new wave? (yahoo.com)
‘Lot of Red
Flags’: Florida Surgeon General Warns Against New COVID-19 Vaccines
9/10/2023 Updated: 9/10/2023
Florida’s Surgeon
General, Dr. Joseph Ladapo, warned that there was “no evidence” of the upcoming
COVID-19 vaccines being safe for human beings and suggested that people may be
better off not getting these new jabs.
“We all know
there's a new vaccine that's coming around the corner, [a] new mRNA COVID-19
vaccine. And there's essentially no evidence ‘for it. There's been no clinical
trial done in human beings showing that it benefits people, there's been no
clinical trial showing that it is a safe product for people. And not only that,
but then there are a lot of red flags,” Dr. Ladapo said on Thursday during a
news conference with Governor Ron DeSantis.
It is unclear
which vaccine Dr. Ladapo was referring to. According to the U.S. Centers for
Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the 2023-24 COVID-19 vaccine will be made
available beginning mid-September.
Both Moderna and
Pfizer are developing vaccines for multiple COVID-19 variants. Pfizer recently
claimed that its updated vaccine provided protection against the BA.2.86 strain
and other fast-spreading variants in a trial conducted on animals. Moderna’s vaccine
targeting BA.2.86 already conducted trials in humans. Both firms are also
planning to roll out new vaccines targeting the Omicron strain XBB.1.5.
At the press
conference, Dr. Ladapo pointed out some of the safety concerns about mRNA
COVID-19 vaccines and indicated that people should not take the new vaccines if
they do not feel confident in its effects.
“So something
that you don't hear much about … there are multiple studies now from around the
world, Brazil, Australia, United States that show that over time these
vaccines, these mRNA COVID-19 products actually increase your chances of
contracting COVID-19.”
“That's
not normal and unfortunately, you're going to have people who are going to get
on television and try to explain why you should be comfortable with taking a
product that ultimately, like its predecessors, increases your chance of
contracting something.”
More
‘Lot of Red Flags’: Florida Surgeon General Warns Against New COVID-19 Vaccines | The Epoch Times
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Battery
Recycling Market Size to Grow USD 66.6 Billion by 2030 at a CAGR of 19.5% |
Valuates Reports
11 Sep, 2023, 09:53 BST
BANGALORE, India, Sept. 11, 2023 /PRNewswire/
-- Battery
Recycling Market is Segmented by Chemistry
(Lead-Acid Based Battery, Lithium Based Battery, Nickel Based Battery, and
Other Battery Types), Source (Industrial Batteries, Automotive Batteries, and
Customer & Electronic Appliances Batteries), Application (Transportation,
Consumer Electronics, Industrial, and Others): Global Opportunity Analysis and
Industry Forecast, 2021-2030.
The global battery
recycling market size was valued at USD 11.1 Billion in
2020 and is expected to reach USD 66.6 Billion by
2030, registering a CAGR of 19.5% from 2021 to 2030.
The worldwide battery
recycling market is anticipated to expand as a result of elements including
governmental restrictions, environmental safety, and public awareness. The
availability of protective layers to reduce the risk of fire and
short-circuiting, as well as the attractive design of batteries, are predicted
to open up new growth potential in the worldwide market.
The Nissan
Leaf is one of the first-generation electric cars whose batteries are only now
nearing the end of their useful lives and need to be recycled. This element is
anticipated to fuel the demand for battery recycling. Battery recycling firms
start a chemical recycling process after obtaining batteries from their various
partners. During this process, the pertinent materials like nickel, cobalt, and
copper are stripped off and refined. The manufacturing of batteries can then
use a portion of that improved material again.
Recycling
considerably lessens Europe's reliance on raw materials. Lithium
resource utilization is now extremely rare in Europe. Although there are a
few lithium deposits in Europe, the start-up is in doubt since the locals
are opposed to a mining operation in their neighborhood. Every tonne of
reclaimed lithium is very much appreciated.
Additionally,
when recycling volumes rise, price volatility may be somewhat reduced.
Li-ion battery
recycling makes it possible to collect and repurpose such priceless raw
materials for the production of new batteries. This may contribute to a more
reliable, diverse, and nearby raw material supply. This begins to lessen the
dependency on mining for raw minerals, which has positive environmental
effects.
As new
techniques emerge, researchers have studied the advantages of recycling Li-ion
batteries and continue to do so. Batteries may be reused for a further five to
seven years utilizing modern techniques, which is better for the environment.
For instance, repurposing used batteries might lower overall energy consumption
and curb global warming. The benefits suggested might result in considerable
decreases in greenhouse gas emissions and the need for material and metal
extraction, which would lower the cost of transportation and energy used in the
manufacture of electric vehicles and the recycling of their batteries.
Battery
materials are anticipated to continue to be a significant electrification
barrier in the absence of recycling. As a result, the rate of the crucial shift
from internal combustion to an electric world might be determined by the growth
and profitability of the EV battery recycling market.
More
“I know that you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant.”
Alan Greenspan.
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