Baltic Dry Index. 1593 +24 Brent Crude 93.27
Spot Gold 1925 U S 2 Year Yield 5.10 -0.02
Oscar Wilde.
For more on the Great Schwindlers of Europe, and no it has nothing to do with the EUSSR, scroll down to this weekend’s music section.
All in all, it was a bad week for the stock casinos.
The US auto strike entered its second week, with expanded strikes at GM and Stellantis. More drag on the already wobbly US economy. Seeking votes, President Biden offers the strikers his endorsement.
Goldie issued a warning on rising US credit card debt defaults, with more to come probably as US student loan debtors get ready to start reservicing their debts from October one.
Russia banned the export of diesel fuel threatening an already tight global supply with a crisis in about two to four weeks.
The US Federal Government is heading once again for a shutdown October first, unless a new spending bill gets passed before that deadline.
All
in all, a tricky week directly ahead.
Dow
slides 100 points on Friday, S&P 500 and Nasdaq post worst weeks since
March after Fed update: Live updates
UPDATED FRI, SEP 22 2023 4:40 PM EDT
U.S. stocks retreated on Friday, concluding what
has been a tough week for the market.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid
106.58 points, or 0.31%, to close at 33,963.84. The S&P 500 shed
0.23% to 4,320.06. The Nasdaq Composite slipped
0.09% to 13,211.81.
Ford ended
the day up 1.9% after a source
told CNBC that the auto giant was making progress in
negotiations with the striking United Auto Workers union. Stellantis also
traded slightly higher, while General Motors finished
lower.
Friday’s slide marked the fourth
straight day of losses for the three major indexes. The losing streak came as
investors reacted to a signal from the Federal Reserve that it intended to keep
interest rates higher for longer.
The S&P 500 and the
technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite have dropped 2.9% and 3.6% this week,
respectively. That marked the third straight negative week and worst weekly
performance since March for each. The blue-chip Dow slid 1.9% on the week.
Bond yields surged after the
central bank forecasted one more rate hike for 2023. The benchmark 10-year
Treasury yield popped to its
highest level since 2007 this week. Meanwhile, the 2-year rate
touched its highest level since 2006.
“That’s starting to raise some
eyebrows for investors,” said Charlie Ripley, senior investment strategist at
Allianz Investment Management. “Investors are getting used to these higher rate
levels and what that means for risk assets going forward.”
Concern also grew around a
government shutdown, which could dent consumer confidence and slow
down the economy further. House Republican leaders sent the chamber into recess
on Thursday.
“Investors are staring at the
ground right now worried about a shutdown,” said Jamie Cox, managing partner at
Harris Financial. “Markets are just sort of waiting around to see when it
happens, and then trying to discount the duration of it.”
Stock
market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)
Credit
card losses are rising at the fastest pace since the Great Financial Crisis
Credit card companies are racking up losses at the
fastest pace in almost 30 years, outside of the Great Financial Crisis,
according to Goldman Sachs.
Credit card losses bottomed in September 2021, and
while initial increases were likely reversals from stimulus, they have been
rapidly rising since the first quarter of 2022. Since that time, it’s an
increasing rate of losses only seen in recent history during the recession of
2008.
It is far from over, the firm predicts.
Losses currently stand at 3.63%, up 1.5 percentage
points from the bottom, and Goldman sees them rising another 1.3 percentage
points to 4.93%. This comes at a time when Americans owe
more than $1 trillion on credit cards, a record high, according
to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
“We think delinquencies could
continue to underperform seasonality through the middle of next year and don’t
see losses peaking until late 2024 / early 2025 for most issuers,” analyst Ryan
Nash wrote in a note Friday.
What is unusual is that the losses
are accelerating outside of an economic downturn, he pointed out.
Of the past five credit card loss
cycles, three were characterized by recessions, he said. The two that occurred
when the economy was not in a recession were in the mid ’90s and 2015 to 2019,
Nash said. He used history as a guide to determine further losses.
“In our view, this cycle resembles
the characteristics of what was experienced in the late 1990s and somewhat
similar to the ’15 to ’19 cycle where losses increase following a period of
strong loan growth and has seen similar pace of normalization thus far this
cycle,” Nash said.
History also shows that losses tend
to peak six to eight quarters after loan growth peaks, he said. That implies
the credit normalization cycle is only at its halfway point, hence the late
2024, early 2025 prediction, he said.
Nash sees the most downside risk for Capital One Financial, followed by Discover Financial Services
Credit
card losses rising at fastest pace since Great Financial Crisis (cnbc.com)
UAW
targets 38 facilities at GM and Stellantis for expanded strikes, skips Ford
DETROIT — The United Auto Workers is expanding
strikes to 38 parts and distribution locations across 20 states, targeting General Motors and Stellantis,
UAW President Shawn Fain said Friday morning.
The union will not initiate
additional strikes at Ford Motor,
as the company has proven it’s “serious about reaching a deal,” Fain said in a
Facebook Live comment.
“We still have serious issues to
work through, but we do want to recognize that Ford is showing that they’re
serious about reaching a deal,” said the outspoken union leader. “At GM and
Stellantis, it’s a different story.”
Fain said the union and Ford have made progress on
issues including eliminating some wage tiers, reinstating cost-of-living
adjustments and an improved profit-sharing formula.
He also said the union won the right to strike over
plant closures during the term of the deal as well as an immediate conversion
of temporary, or supplemental, workers — those with at least 90 days of
employment — upon ratification.
Ford said the company is “working diligently with
the UAW to reach a deal,” but “we still have significant gaps to close on the
key economic issues.”
“In the end, the issues are interconnected and must
work within an overall agreement that supports our mutual success,” Ford said
in a statement Friday.
The strikes at the GM and Stellantis parts
suppliers will add roughly 5,600 autoworkers, including roughly 3,500 employees
at GM, to the UAW’s ongoing strikes at the Detroit automakers.
“Today’s strike escalation by the UAW’s top
leadership is unnecessary,” GM said in a statement. “We have now presented five
separate economic proposals that are historic, addressing areas that our team
members have said matters most: wage increases and job security while allowing
GM to succeed and thrive into the future.
----Stellantis said in a statement it questions
“whether the union’s leadership has ever had an interest in reaching an
agreement in a timely manner.”
Roughly 12,700
UAW workers went on strike a week ago at the following
locations: GM’s midsize truck and full-size van plant in Wentzville, Missouri;
Ford’s Ranger midsize pickup and Bronco SUV plant in Wayne, Michigan; and
Stellantis’ Jeep Wrangler and Gladiator plant in Toledo, Ohio.
Parts distribution centers have
been a major point of concern
during these talks, especially at Stellantis. The automaker has
proposed consolidating 10 “Mopar” parts and distribution centers, which are
scattered across the country, into larger Amazon-like distribution
centers.
GM has agreed to eliminate the wage
differences at its parts and components plants, according to Fain. He commended
the Detroit automaker for that action but condemned it for resisting further
measures that Ford has agreed to with the union.
More
UAW
strike expands to 38 more facilities at GM and Stellantis (cnbc.com)
Biden to visit Michigan to support auto strike, a day before
Trump
By Jeff
Mason, Heather
Timmons and Ben
Klayman
WASHINGTON/TOLEDO, Ohio,
Sept 22 (Reuters) - U.S. President Joe Biden will travel to Michigan on Tuesday
to show support for the United Auto Workers' strike against Detroit automakers,
putting him in the center of the dispute that has pitted his labor allies
against major manufacturers.
Biden, a Democrat, sees
himself as a pro-union president and his visit to the state, a day before
former President Donald Trump is scheduled to be there, will underscore his
support for union workers' right to take action and engage in collective
bargaining.
"Tuesday, I’ll go to
Michigan to join the picket line and stand in solidarity with the men and women
of UAW as they fight for a fair share of the value they helped create,"
Biden said on Friday in a post on X, the social media platform formerly known
as Twitter. "It’s time for a win-win agreement that keeps American auto
manufacturing thriving with well-paid UAW jobs."
Biden is running for
re-election in 2024 and will likely face Trump, who is the frontrunner for the
Republican presidential nomination.
More
Biden
to visit Michigan to support auto strike, a day before Trump | Reuters
Russia’s
indefinite ban on diesel exports threatens to aggravate a global shortage
Russia imposed an indefinite ban on the export of
diesel and gasoline to most countries, a move that risks disrupting fuel
supplies ahead of winter and threatens to exacerbate global shortages.
In a government decree signed
by Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, the Kremlin said Thursday that it would
introduce “temporary” restrictions on diesel exports to stabilize fuel prices
on the domestic market.
The ban, which came into immediate
effect and applies to all countries apart from four former Soviet states, does
not have an end date. The countries exempt from the ban include Belarus,
Kazakhstan, Armenia and
Kyrgyzstan, all of which are members of the Moscow-led Eurasian Economic Union.
Russia is one of the world’s largest suppliers of
diesel and a major exporter of crude oil. Market participants are concerned
about the potential impact of Russia’s ban, particularly at a time when
global diesel inventories are already at low levels. Oil prices jumped as
much as $1 a barrel on the news on Thursday, before settling lower for the
session.
International benchmark Brent crude futures traded
0.9% higher at $94.13 a barrel on Friday afternoon in London, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures rose
1.1% to trade at $90.62.
Energy analysts said the vague language used in
Russia’s announcement made it difficult to assess exactly how long the ban
would remain in place and warned that Moscow could once
again be seeking to weaponize fuel supplies ahead of another
winter heating season.
A spokesperson for the Kremlin said
Friday that the fuel export ban would last for as long as necessary to ensure
market stability, Reuters reported.
More
Russia's indefinite ban on fuel exports could worsen a global shortage (cnbc.com)
Finally,
that never ending US story is back. Same old story, same old ending?
Shutdown looms as US House Republicans again block own
spending bill
By David Morgan and Richard Cowan September 21, 202310:42 PM GMT+1
WASHINGTON,
Sept 21 (Reuters) - U.S. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy's attempt to restart his
stalled spending agenda failed on Thursday when Republicans for a third time
blocked a procedural vote on defense spending, raising the risk
of a government shutdown in just 10 days.
The House of
Representatives voted 216-212 against beginning debate on an $886 billion
defense appropriations bill, with five hardline conservative Republicans
joining Democrats to oppose the measure.
It
represented a setback for McCarthy the morning after his fractious 221-212
majority met
for 2-1/2 hours seeking common ground on
legislation to avert the fourth government shutdown in a decade beginning Oct.
1.
As the vote
failed, McCarthy told reporters that he will pursue the "same strategy I
had from January: just keep working; never give up."
Federal
agencies will begin to shut down on Oct. 1
unless Congress passes either a short-term continuing resolution, known as a
CR, or a full-year funding bill. So far House Republicans have failed to unify
around either possibility, and the ideas they have considered have only
Republican support, making them unlikely to win support in the
Democratic-majority Senate or be signed into law by President Joe Biden.
More
Shutdown looms as US House Republicans again block own
spending bill | Reuters
I'll be long gone before some smart person ever figures out what happened inside this Oval Office.
George W. Bush.
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its
own.
The thing that's wrong with the French is that they don't have a word for entrepreneur.
George W. Bush.
[UK] ‘Recession
increasingly likely’ as business activity drops at fastest pace since January
2021
September 22, 2023
A steep downturn in services saw economic activity contract at its
fastest pace since the beginning of 2021 raising the risk of a recession, a
closely watched survey suggested.
S&P Global’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for the UK economy
came in at 46.8 – far below the 50 reading which indicates flat growth. The PMI
assesses the health of an economy’s services and manufacturing sector.
Analysts had predicted a reading of 48.7 this month.
The UK’s all important services sector fell to 47.2, a 32-month low and
down from 49.5 last month.
Manufacturing meanwhile saw a slight improvement, rising to 44.2 – a two
month high.
Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market
Intelligence said: “The disappointing PMI survey results for September mean a
recession is looking increasingly likely in the UK.
“The steep fall in output
signalled by the flash PMI data is consistent with GDP contracting at a
quarterly rate of over 0.4 per cent, with a broad-based downturn gathering
momentum to hint at few hopes of any imminent improvement,” he continued.
In July the economy
contracted 0.5 per cent, with some analysts saying the UK may already be in recession.
The Bank
of England updated its growth forecasts for the remainder of the year, warning
that GDP would rise “only slightly” in the third quarter while underlying
growth would be “weaker than expected” too.
Recession-hit Germany is facing a flurry of global
headwinds, Goldman Sachs says
September 20, 2023
- "The predicament that the economy is facing at the moment is
really down to a number of factors," Peter Oppenheimer, chief global
equity strategist and head of macro research EMEA at Goldman Sachs, told
CNBC Tuesday.
- The banks lists challenges in the manufacturing sector, a
disappointing China reopening boost and higher energy costs as
contributing to the ongoing recession in Europe's largest economy.
Germany finds itself at a
crossroads of global issues as it deals with an economic contraction, according
to Peter Oppenheimer, chief global equity strategist and head of macro research
EMEA at Goldman Sachs.
"The predicament that
the economy is facing at the moment is really down to a number of
factors," Oppenheimer told CNBC Tuesday, with challenges in the manufacturing
sector, a disappointing China reopening boost and higher energy costs contributing to the recession in Europe's largest
economy.
"It's … not a deep recession but it's obviously been more hit by
obvious headwinds," Oppenheimer said.
The comments reflect the latest projection by the Bundesbank, which
estimated Monday that the German economy is likely to shrink this quarter
thanks to slow private consumption and industry stuttering.
Germany
officially fell into a technical recession in the first quarter of the year as GDP growth was
revised from zero to -0.3%.
Bleak
forecasts for the German economy have prompted discussion as to whether the
country is once again the "sick man of Europe," a
moniker that was first used to describe Germany in 1998 as the country
navigated the costly challenges of a post-reunification economy.
More
Recession-hit Germany is facing a flurry of global
headwinds, Goldman Sachs says (msn.com)
Covid-19 Corner
This
section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Due to its importance and that some LIR
readers only read the weekend LIR, this weekend we repeat the Covid-19 vaccine
comparisons data. Why is this disaster not being investigated? Approx. 14
minutes.
VAERS
data made transparent. Modified version.
Vaccination Offers 'No Meaningful Protection'
Against Long COVID: Study
The unvaccinated were found
to have a slightly lower risk.
9/22/2023 Updated: 9/22/2023
Findings in a new study challenge the mainstream narrative that COVID-19
vaccinations prevent long COVID. The study found that while previous infections
reduce the risk of long COVID by 86 percent, vaccination status prior to COVID
infection is irrelevant to a person's risk of developing long COVID.
“The notion had been that both previous infection as well as vaccination
reduce the chances of subsequent long COVID should you become infected,” Dr.
William Schaffner, professor of preventive medicine and health policy at
Vanderbilt University Medical Center, told The Epoch Times.
These investigators have poured "cool water" on that concept,
he continued.
----While not explicitly
discussed in the study, the study’s diagram and supplementary tables showed
that with the exception of infection with the Wuhan variant, unvaccinated
people tend to have a slightly lower risk of long COVID than their vaccinated
counterparts.
Furthermore, unvaccinated people infected with the omicron variant had
the lowest risk of long COVID.
“Vaccination offered
no meaningful protection against developing PCC [post-COVID condition] in case
of an infection. In contrast, there was … strong evidence that a previous
infection reduced the risk of PCC,” the authors wrote.
Nearly 49,000 people in the German
population responded to the survey. Participants were recruited through postal
mail. They were then asked to fill out an online questionnaire that included a
list of symptoms.
More
Vaccination Offers 'No Meaningful Protection' Against Long COVID: Study | The Epoch Times
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Ugreen PowerRoam GS1200 power
station review
Hits
the right notes on a budget
September 22,
2023
The Ugreen PowerRoam GS1200 power
station packs the latest rechargeable Lithium technology in a compact
format.
The 1024Wh battery offers
over 3000 charge cycles, while the built-in AC charger can top the unit in less
than one hour. With a total of fourteen ports, including six 10A 120V AC
outlets and eight low-voltage DC ports, the GS1200 can power appliances such as
microwave ovens while simultaneously charging a gaming laptop.
The user can proudly
display the sleek GS1200 on an office table, where it can also serve as a UPS.
Dedicated on/off switches make using the station straightforward. The large
segmented LCD offers excellent contrast, being readable from several meters. If
that’s not enough, a mobile app brings all controls to the owner’s fingertips.
With two cooling fans, the GS1200 is quiet enough to be used in a room at
night.
Ugreen offers several options when purchasing a GS1200. A
single unit costs $999, while two costs under $1900. That is cheap for a
LiFePo4 battery type at $0.97 per Wh. The station is also available with one or
two 200W solar panels for $1247 and $1749, respectively.
UGreen’s PowerRoam GS1200
station measures 34 cm x 22 cm x 27cm for 11.5kg. The grey plastic shell feels
tough and will easily withstand knocks. A non-retractable handle located at the
top helps to carry the unit effortlessly. Two fans provide adequate airflow to
cool internal components while charging the battery, along with air vents on
both sides.
A large segmented LCD sits
on the front panel, showing battery capacity and input/output power
consumption. In addition, various icons show which outputs are enabled or if
issues are present while operating the station. The display’s white color
segments on a dark background offer excellent contrast and are readable in
bright sunlight, even from a few meters away.
Push buttons control
output sections with a single click. A faint white LED embedded in each button
indicates whether the output is activated or not. An IoT button enables the
unit's Bluetooth and WiFi capability and helps connect to the companion mobile
App. The station also includes a multifunction LED flashlight that supports two
intensity levels and a strobe mode.
The GS1200 integrates a
1024Whr LiFePo4 battery pack, which should provide over five years of usage
when recharged daily before experiencing an 80% capacity drop. The built-in
1200W AC inverter can supply 2500W for short periods through six AC sockets located
on the right. The low-voltage DC section comprises two Type-C 100W and two
Type-A 22.5W sockets. The Ugreen power station also incorporates three
regulated 12V output sockets, two DC5521, and one cigarette carport. Output
sections can provide a maximum of 1565W combined under normal usage.
More
Ugreen
PowerRoam GS1200 power station review | TechRadar
This weekend’s music
diversion. Holland’s almost, but not quite entirely forgotten, Friedrich Schwindl.
Mr. Schwindl came
from a long line of well established Dutch Schwindlers, collectively known,
long before the EUSSR, as “the Great Schwindler’s of Europe.”
Possibly because of
that connection he moved frequently in life, meeting Leopold and a young
Wolfgang Mozart in Brussels in 1763, although all seemed to have parted amicably
and unscathed.
In 1770 he was back
in the Hague, possibly for a meeting with some of the other Great Dutch Schwindlers
of Europe.
By 1776 he was known to be operating in Geneva, where started and left, for unknown reasons, a music school. By 1780 he was active in Karlsruhe, remaining there until his death in 1786. Approx. 9 minutes, the music that is, not his passing.
Friedrich
Schwindl - Sinfonia in D major, Op. 9 No. 3
Friedrich Schwindl - Sinfonia in D major, Op. 9 No. 3 - YouTube
This weekend’s chess
update. Approx. 9 minutes.
Why
It Looks So Easy When Magnus Does it
Why It Looks So Easy When Magnus Does it - YouTube
This
weekend the maths update. Approx. 13 minutes.
A
needlessly complicated but awesome bridge.
A needlessly complicated but awesome bridge. - YouTube
It is only by not paying one's bills that one can hope to live [on] in the memory of the commercial classes.
Oscar Wilde.
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