Saturday, 1 July 2023

Special Update 01/07/2023 Canada Day. July 4th. H2 Starts.

 Baltic Dry Index. 1091 -21         Brent Crude 74.90

Spot Gold 1919          U S 2 Year Yield 4.87    unch.  

July 1, 1867: The British North America Act (today known as the Constitution Act, 1867) creates Canada.

In the central bankster, fiat money fuelled, stock casinos, despite losing a bank or two here and there and rising interest rates, the stock casinos had a bumper H1 23.

Now on to what looks to be a much more challenging H2 23.

But first Canada and the USA get to celebrate their nationhood.

S&P 500 rises on Friday to close out big first half, Nasdaq posts best start to a year in 4 decades: Live updates

UPDATED FRI, JUN 30 2023 6:36 PM EDT

Stocks rose Friday and technology names continued their staggering run to cap off a strong start to the year, and the best first half for the Nasdaq Composite since 1983.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 285.18 points, or 0.84%, to close at 34,407.60. The S&P 500 climbed 1.23% to end at 4,450.38, and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.45% to settle at 13,787.92.

Mega-cap technology stocks responsible for a sizeable chunk of 2023′s market gains rose Friday. Dominant artificial intelligence chipmaker Nvidia jumped 3.6%, bringing its yearly gains to more than 189%. Netflix added about 2.9%, while Meta PlatformsMicrosoft and Amazon rose 1.9%, 1.6% and 1.9%, respectively. Apple gained 2.3% to close above a $3 trillion market cap.

Elsewhere, Nike shares bucked the broad market uptrend. The apparel giant fell 2.7% after reporting a weaker-than-expected quarterly profit.

Friday marked a pivotal day for investors, bringing the conclusion of the month, second quarter and first half. The last six months saw 2022′s beaten-down growth names make a broad comeback as the promise of artificial intelligence and hope of an end to the Federal Reserve’s rate campaign lifted major tech players to astonishing heights.

Despite these strong gains, some on Wall Street expect volatility in the second half and likely profit taking from investors that benefited from the rally. This, coupled with changing technicals, could lead to sideways action, or a slight pullback in the S&P, said Anna Han, equity strategist at Wells Fargo Securities.

“The technicals are telling us that this ubercap-led rally has just been overextended,” she said. “It’s been hitting those overbought levels, and we believe it’s time for that trade to kind of take a pause.”

More

Stock market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)

European stocks post gains of 8.8% for the first half despite rate rises and banking crisis

UPDATED FRI, JUN 30 2023 11:52 AM EDT

European stock markets closed higher on Friday and notched strong first-half gains in a resurgence that came despite interest rate hikes and bank failures.

The pan-European Stoxx 600 index closed 1.2% higher for the session, with all sectors and major bourses in positive territory. Over the first half of the year, the index ended up roughly 8.8%.

It comes as euro zone inflation data fell more than expected for the month of June. The figure came in at 5.5% this month, indicating that the fiscal tightening of the European Central Bank could be starting to have the desired effect. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, rose, however, coming in at 5.4%.

-----Several sectors posted gains of more than 1% on Friday, including banks, chemicals, insurance and retail stocks.

European equity markets ended Thursday’s session just 0.1% higher, bolstered by robust earnings and a subsequent 17% share price uptick from H&M.

Elsewhere in the world, Asia-Pacific markets were mixed after China’s factory activity shrunk for a third consecutive month in June. U.S. stocks rose Friday as investors Wall Street got another hint of encouraging inflation news.

European stocks post gains of 8.8% for the first half (cnbc.com)

Next, UK, EU and China real world news. Last weekend it looked like Russia’s President Putin might be doomed. This weekend it’s a toss up between President’s Biden and Macron.

House prices drop 3.5pc as Nationwide warns over ‘significant drag’ on market - live updates

June 30, 2023

A sharp increase in mortgage costs is expected to trigger a “significant drag” on the housing market, Nationwide has warned, as house prices slumped in June.

Property prices fell 3.5pc in June on an annual basis but edged up by 0.1pc compared with a month earlier, its data showed.

It comes a day after more lenders raised mortgage rates on two and five-year fixed deals, following the Bank of England’s increase to the base rate last week.

Robert Gardner, Nationwide’s chief economist, said: “The sharp increase in borrowing costs is likely to exert a significant drag on housing market activity in the near term.”

“House prices remain high relative to earnings, and as a result, deposit requirements are still a significant barrier for those looking to enter the market.”

Nationwide said the average first-time buyer borrowing against a typical property with a 20pc deposit would be spending significantly more of their take-home pay on their mortgage than the long-term average.

Mr Gardner added: “A 10pc deposit on a typical first-time buyer home is equal to around 55pc of gross annual income – this is down from the all-time highs of 59pc prevailing in late 2022, but still marginally above the levels prevailing before the financial crisis struck in 2007/8.

“Despite the higher interest rates available to savers, the sharp rise in rents, together with continued high rates of inflation more generally is continuing to make it difficult for many prospective buyers to save for a deposit.”

House prices drop 3.5pc as Nationwide warns over ‘significant drag’ on market (telegraph.co.uk)

Europe inflation slips to 5.5% — but that will not stop central bank rate hikes

June 30, 2023.

Inflation in Europe slid again in June but fell too slowly to offer much relief to shoppers grumbling over price tags or to stop more interest rate hikes that will raise the cost of borrowing across the economy.

The annual rate of 5.5% was down from 6.1% in May in the 20 countries that use the euro currency, the European Union statistics agency Eurostat said on Friday.

While that is a big drop from the peak of 10.6% in October, persistently high prices in the US, Europe and the United Kingdom pushed some of the world’s top central bankers to make clear they are going to keep raising rates and leave them there until inflation drops to their 2% goal considered best for the economy.

Consumers saw relief on energy prices, which dropped 5.6% after last year’s crisis, while food price inflation was up 11.7%, easing from 12.5% in May.

Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and fuel and offers a clearer picture of longer-term price pressures, rose slightly to 5.4% from 5.3% the month before.

---- The global economy’s rebound from the Covid-19 pandemic also strained supplies of parts and raw materials.

Energy and wheat prices have subsided to pre-war levels and supply chain problems have eased – but inflation has kept snaking through other parts of the economy.

Companies selling services instead of goods — a huge swath of the economy including everything from office cleaning to haircuts to medical care — have raised their prices.

Hotels and airlines are charging summer travellers more and workers are pressing for pay raises to make up for their lost purchasing power.

The European Central Bank (ECB) — along with its peers around the world — has been rapidly raising interest rates, the chief medicine against inflation.

Increases in the ECB’s benchmark rate make it more expensive for people to borrow to buy homes and cars and businesses to acquire new office buildings and factory equipment.

That reduces demand, working to drop price levels.

One obvious impact has been in housing, with prices starting to fall after a years-long rally across Europe as homebuyers avoid asking for mortgages.

Those who have to refinance their home loans are also facing the prospect of paying thousands more than they used to.

While inflation fell rapidly as the first rate hikes took hold, going the last mile to 2% may take longer and be more difficult, central bankers say.

More

Europe inflation slips to 5.5% — but that will not stop central bank rate hikes (msn.com)

German unemployment rises more than expected in June

June 30, 2023

BERLIN (Reuters) - German unemployment rose more than expected in June, showing that difficult economic conditions are taking their toll in the jobs market, official figures showed on Thursday.

The Federal Labour Office said the number of people out of work increased by 28,000 in seasonally adjusted terms to 2.61 million. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected the figure to rise by 13,000.

"The more difficult economic conditions are now also being felt in the labour market," labour office head Andrea Nahles said. "Unemployment is rising and employment growth is losing momentum."

The seasonally adjusted jobless rate rose to 5.7% from 5.6% in the previous month.

The number of unemployed is 192,000 higher than in June 2022. Even without taking into account Ukrainian refugees, unemployment would have risen year-on-year, the labour office said.

In June, there were 769,000 job openings, 108,000 fewer than a year ago. Although the Federal Labour Office has seen a slowdown in labour demand in the last year, it remains at a high level.

Economists say the number of unemployed people will rise slightly in 2023, but the unemployment rate will remain broadly unchanged from the previous year.

German unemployment rises more than expected in June (msn.com)

France riots: 45,000 police, armoured vehicles deployed to quell unrest 

PARIS, July 1 (Reuters) - France deployed 45,000 police officers and some armoured vehicles on the streets on Saturday as riots rocked French cities for a fourth night over a teenager's fatal shooting by an officer during a traffic stop.

Buildings and vehicles have been torched and stores looted, and the violence has plunged President Emmanuel Macron into the gravest crisis of his leadership since the Yellow Vest protests that started in 2018.

Unrest has flared nationwide, including in cities such as Marseille, Lyon, Toulouse, Strasbourg and Lille as well as Paris where Nahel M., a 17-year-old of Algerian and Moroccan descent, was shot on Tuesday in the Nanterre suburb.

His death, caught on video, has reignited longstanding complaints by poor and racially mixed urban communities of police violence and racism.

Interior Minister Gerald Darmanin said early on Saturday that 270 people had been arrested on Friday night, bringing the total to more than 1,100 since unrest ignited.

Friday night's arrests included 80 people in the southern city of Marseille, France's second-largest and home to many people of North African descent.

More

France riots: 45,000 police, armoured vehicles deployed to quell unrest  | Reuters

China Steelmakers Issue Stark Warning About Second-Half Outlook

·         Leading mills highlight soft demand and pressure to cut costs

·         Iron ore futures slump in Singapore as traders assess outlook

 

30 June 2023 at 04:09 BST Updated on30 June 2023 at 11:05 BST

(Requires subscription)

China Steelmakers Issue Stark Warning About Second-Half Outlook - Bloomberg

 

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.   

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,  inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Something different this weekend. One central bankster telling the “truth,” well maybe.  One central bankster’s nose growing like Pinocchio’s.

Powell’s Honesty About Inflation Is Rare. Why Markets Need to Be Worried.

June 29, 2023

It’s highly unusual for the heads of four of the world’s most powerful central banks to hold a public discussion together. That’s what happened on Wednesday in Sintra, Portugal.

The headlines saying the Federal Reserve and others are likely to keep raising interest rates weren’t enough to cause shock waves—stocks finished more or less flat.

But the underlying messages were quite frightening. For one, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and his peers more or less admitted they don’t understand what is happening right now in their battle with inflation.

They couched that message in positive spin—it’s great that economies have proven resilient since they started tightening, and it’s a nice surprise that unemployment remains so low. Translation: That’s not what we would have expected, and we’re not totally sure why the economy hasn’t tanked after the biggest and fastest rate hikes in a generation.

Same for the message that policy is data-dependent. Translation: We don’t have confidence in our own forecasts, we need more clues from what’s happening on the ground.

The slowdown in inflation so far can be attributed, in the most part, to energy prices retreating and supply-chain kinks working themselves out. Inflation is staying too high because companies can raise prices, and workers can demand higher pay. Higher rates have barely touched the real economy and consumer prices yet.

More

Barron's Daily (cmail19.com)


Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill admits forecasts have struggled to explain inflation shock

THURSDAY 29 JUNE 2023 10:23 AM

Any central banker would have struggled to accurately forecast the impact of the series of shocks that have hit the UK economy, the Bank of England’s chief economist claimed today.

Huw Pill, a former Goldman Sachs banker, in response to a letter from the Treasury select committee today hit back at critics who have slammed the Bank for persistently getting its inflation forecasts wrong.

“Any single model would have struggled to capture the impact and propagation of the economic shocks we [have] seen in recent years,” Pill said, referring to the Covid-19 crisis and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

For around a year and a half, monetary policy committee (MPC) officials have had to revise up their inflation projections. 

That overshoot has been mainly driven by food prices accelerating more than 18 per cent, something the Bank has recognised it did not see coming.

That has led to sharp scrutiny of how the Bank generates its quarterly economic forecasts. Some have questioned how the MPC can set interest rates effectively if the group is unable to get a grasp of inflation, growth and unemployment.

Pill said: “The greatest weakness of the current forecasting framework is the difficulty it faces in explaining the greater-than-expected persistence in UK inflation following the large – one could say unprecedented – external inflationary shock following the invasion of Ukraine.” 

More

Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill admits forecasts have struggled to explain inflation shock - CityAM

Below, why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.

The “New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking

https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf

Mines, Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check

https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check

"An Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As The Industry Races To Recycle

by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/environmental-disaster-ev-battery-metals-crunch-horizon-industry-races-recycle

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

China DESTROYED samples from Wuhan lab after Covid outbreak claims leaked documents

June 29, 2023

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has been accused of covering up the Covid outbreak after details emerged of an ultimatum the government gave lab scientists.

On January 3, 2020, the Chinese National Health Commission is said to have issued a memo ordering labs to either hand over their samples or destroy them “on the spot”.

Additionally, the CCP dictated that scientists should not share information without its permission, vowed to “strengthen law enforcement inspections" and warned it would “severely deal with” those that defied the order.

The internal order was allegedly sent out just two days before the rest of the world were alerted to the outbreak of Covid-19, by which time it had spread far and wide.

Though China remained silent, the world was alerted to Covid by the global infectious diseases reporting system ProMed.

Obtained by a Freedom of Information Act lawsuit against the State Department, the memo includes the phrase: “No institution or individual may release any relevant information to the outside world without authorization.”

The memo also reads: “Opinions that have not been scientifically verified and reviewed must not be publicly disseminated to the public.”

The lawsuit was started by US Right to Know (USRTK), a nonprofit investigative public health research and journalism group that has been praised by the Freedom of the Press Foundation and the Lancet Global Health report.

The scientific community looking the determine the origins of Covid have long complained about the investigations being hampered by Chinese censorship and destruction of early lab samples.

Virginie Courtier-Orgogozo, an evolutionary biologist at the French National Center for Scientific Research, said: “Having access to additional sequences from the early days would greatly help researchers to infer what happened in Wuhan in 2019 and to distinguish between the different scenarios.”

Courtier-Orgogozo claims that at least 100 individuals with symptoms in December 2019 have been sampled, but only around 20 genome sequences from these patients have been made available to international researchers.

China’s cloak and dagger approach to public health information has infuriated researchers for decades.

The leaked order echoes the data censorship during the Sars epidemic that began in 2002, when the Government decreed that only the China CDC could legally possess viral samples.

More

China DESTROYED samples from Wuhan lab after Covid outbreak claims leaked documents (msn.com)

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.

Hydrogen-powered passenger train rides the rails in North America

Paul Ridden  June 29, 2023

French transport multinational Alstom debuted the world's first hydrogen fuel-cell passenger train back in 2016, which went into service in Germany last year. Now the Coradia iLint is rolling down the track in North America for the first time.

The first hydrogen-powered train journey in North America took place on June 17 as part of a three-month demonstration project in Canada, and transported a hundred passengers on a stretch of the Réseau de Charlevoix railway network – a 90-km (56-mile) route between Parc de la Chute-Montmorency in Quebec City and Baie St-Paul that runs through the UNESCO-listed Charlevoix Biosphere Reserve.

The two-carriage train makes use of fuel cells from Accelera by Cummins and, importantly, sources its green hydrogen from Harnois Énergies in Quebec City, though Engadget does point out that the hydrogen will be hauled to the refueling point in Baie St-Paul by diesel trucks – at least until on-site infrastructure cleans up the act.

The Coradia iLint has been designed specifically to serve non-electrified or partially electrified railway networks. It's reported able to achieve a top speed of 140 km/h (87 mph), and boasts similar acceleration and braking chops to regional diesel trains.

With a full tank feeding the hydrogen fuel cells, the Coradia iLint has a range of around 1,000 km (620 miles), though Alstom reports that a test train did manage 1,175 km (730 miles) without refueling in September 2022.

The only emissions from system will be steam and condensed water, and the train should offer a quieter experience for passengers and for folks living near the railway line.

More

Hydrogen-powered passenger train rides the rails in North America (newatlas.com)

This weekend’s masterful music diversion. Dresden’s almost forgotten Pisendel, the top violinist of his day. Many of the baroque greats wrote pieces especially for him, but thinking them too easy, he also composed for himself as here.

Just go to the final Allegro starting about 9:10, where Pisendel merges the slow Andante into the faster closing Allegro without break. Approx. 15 minutes, although only about 5 minutes from 9:10.

Johann Georg Pisendel Violin Concerto in D major, Straumer / Guttler

Johann Georg Pisendel Violin Concerto in D major, Straumer / Guttler - YouTube

Johann Georg Pisendel

Johann Georg Pisendel - Wikipedia

This weekend’s chess update. Approx. 14 minutes.

Cross the Squares, Black and White, Dances the Nimble Chess Knight

Cross the Squares, Black and White, Dances the Nimble Chess Knight - YouTube

This weekend maths update. More math’s magic from a math’s genius. Way above my math’s level, but worth watching magic at work. Approx. 27 minutes

Is this Ramanujan's most beautiful identity? (Mathologer Masterclass)

Is this Ramanujan's most beautiful identity? (Mathologer Masterclass) - YouTube

Battle of the Boyne, 1690 ⚔️ When the balance of power in Europe changed forever

Battle of the Boyne, 1690 ⚔️ When the balance of power in Europe changed forever - YouTube

 

 

 

 

 

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