Saturday, 22 July 2023

Special Update 22/07/2023 Nasdaq “Rebalances.” Endless Futile War.

 Baltic Dry Index. 978 +0.01        Brent Crude 81.07

Spot Gold 1962          U S 2 Year Yield 4.82 +0.02    

“War is peace. Freedom is slavery. Ignorance is strength.”

 George Orwell, 1984

In the gambling stock casinos, an interesting, if uncertain week ahead. How will rebalancing the Nasdaq 100 play out among the hedge and pension funds?

In the real world, what happens next to food prices, food availability?

Will no one bring NATO’s proxy war on Russia in the Ukraine to an end, before like nearly all European wars, it spreads.


European markets close higher as traders react to earnings, look ahead to Spanish election

UPDATED FRI, JUL 21 2023 11:51 AM EDT

LONDON — European markets closed higher Friday as investors digested a fresh round of corporate earnings and looked ahead to a crucial Spanish election over the weekend.

The pan-European Stoxx 600 closed 0.3% higher, with most sectors in positive territory. Households goods added 1.2% to lead gains, while mining stocks shed 1.5%.

Shares in Asia-Pacific were mixed on Friday as investors reacted to Japanese inflation figures, with the core consumer price index rising slightly in June from the previous month.

U.S. stocks were higher as the Dow Jones Industrial Average headed for its tenth-straight session of gains for the first time in nearly six years. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq also climbed in early trade.

Back in Europe, U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s Conservative Party suffered a heavy blow in a series of by-elections Thursday night, losing two seats in parliament to the main opposition Labour Party and centrist Liberal Democrats. The results were ominous for Sunak’s ruling party as it looks ahead to a general election in 2024.

Spanish voters head to the polls on Sunday in a pivotal snap general election that could end the four-year tenure of left-wing Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez and mark a shift to the right in Europe’s sixth-largest economy.

Corporate earnings on Friday came from Swiss miner Glencore. Earnings season kicks off in earnest next week, when Europe’s major banks, pharmaceutical firms, automakers, energy giants and aircraft manufacturers are all due to report.

Europe markets open to close ahead of Spanish election, earnings (cnbc.com)

Wall Street heavyweights mixed ahead of Nasdaq 100 rebalance

July 21, 20235:34 PM GMT+1

July 21 (Reuters) - Shares of Wall Street's most valuable companies were mixed on Friday ahead of a rebalance of the Nasdaq 100 index (.NDX) to address the benchmark's "overconcentration."

 

Nvidia (NVDA.O) and Tesla (TSLA.O) dipped 1.4% and 0.4%, respectively, while Alphabet (GOOGL.O) added nearly 1% and Apple (AAPL.O) and Amazon (AMZN.O) were near unchanged.

 

Before trading begins on Monday, exchange operator Nasdaq (NDAQ.O) will trim the weight of a handful of companies that make up close to half of the Nasdaq 100.

 

Nasdaq describes the Nasdaq 100 as a "modified market capitalization-weighted index," with company weights depending on their stock market value, while also applying rules to limit the influence of the largest stocks in the index.

The Nasdaq 100 includes 100 of the largest companies that trade on the Nasdaq exchange, and changes to the index will force investment funds that track it to adjust their portfolios and sell shares of companies that have their weight in the index reduced.

"We estimate that declining weights will drive passive net selling worth more than a day's average trading volume in GOOGL and more than one-third of a day's volume in MSFT, AMZN, and NVDA," Goldman Sachs wrote in a client note on Monday.

Broadcom (AVGO.O), which will likely see its weight increase in the Nasdaq 100 following the rebalance, rose 1.6%. The chipmaker currently makes up 2.4% of the index, according to Refinitiv data.

 

Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Amazon and Tesla have been among the biggest winners in the U.S. stock market's recovery this year, increasing their combined influence in the Nasdaq 100. That has helped the Nasdaq 100 surge 42% in 2023, compared to a 25% increase in the Nasdaq 100 Equal Weighted Index (.NDXE).

The Nasdaq 100 was near flat on Friday.

Nasdaq announced its plan to rebalance the index on July 7.

More

Wall Street heavyweights mixed ahead of Nasdaq 100 rebalance | Reuters

Is Ukraine’s counteroffensive failing? Defense experts say the risks facing Kyiv are growing

Ukraine’s counteroffensive has been more sluggish than many expected and military analysts warn that the window of opportunity for breaking through Russian defenses — and making territorial gains — could close soon.

Kyiv’s counteroffensive was launched in June after months of preparation, but its progress has disappointed some onlookers who hoped for a faster regaining of Russian-occupied territory in the south and east of the country.

While Ukraine planned its counteroffensive over the winter — and waited for more military hardware from its international allies — Russian forces were heavily fortifying their positions along a 900-kilometer (559-mile) front line stretching from the Kharkiv-Luhansk border in the northeast of Ukraine, toward Kherson in the southwest.

Military analysts note that Ukraine now faces successive lines of Russian defenses that are, in some cases, 30 kilometers deep and consisting of minefields, anti-tank obstacles, and extensive networks of trenches and bunkers that are covered by Russian drones, artillery and helicopters.

Small window of opportunity

One of the biggest problems for Ukraine is that the time frame for breaking through Russia’s defenses is limited, with only a few summer months left in which to make serious gains.

For Michael Clarke, a defense analyst and former director-general of the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) think tank, there’s a risk that the first phase of the counteroffensive, designed to probe Russia’s defenses, takes too long.

“It was always intended to be a two-stage offensive, with a sort of probing first stage to try to identify weaknesses in the Russian frontline, followed by a second stage where they put their big forces into it. And we’re still on the first stage which has lasted longer than they expected,” Clarke told CNBC Wednesday.

“If this first phase lasts too long, they leave themselves insufficient time before the weather changes, before the second phase starts,” he said. Although he believed it to be an unlikely scenario, Clarke noted that time pressures could prompt Ukraine to deploy military units destined for use in the second phase of the counteroffensive sooner than planned — something he said Russia is hoping for.

“The danger then is that they will not be able to use the bulk of their forces in sufficient mass to make a difference ... to create a real punch when they decide to really start,” he added. “I’m not pessimistic about this offensive but the risks that it may not work are increasing as the days tick on.”

One of the most pressing time constraints is the inevitable change of weather, with Ukraine’s infamous muddy season in the fall set to make the offensive far more challenging and at times — with unpassable roads and fields — practically impossible.

Konrad Muzyka, a military intelligence specialist and president of Rochan Consulting, said “the weather has always been the factor” for Kyiv.

“I think that the Ukrainians expected the counteroffensive to gather sufficient momentum to allow them to continue to push south at a much faster rate. Unfortunately, it didn’t happen,” he told CNBC on Wednesday.

More

Ukraine counteroffensive: Defense analysts on what could happen next (cnbc.com)

Russians Attack At Pyatikhatki, Avdeevka, Artemovsk and Kupyansk. Military Summary For 2023.07.21

Russians Attack At Pyatikhatki, Avdeevka, Artemovsk and Kupyansk. Military Summary For 2023.07.21 - YouTube

“There is no instance of a nation benefitting from prolonged warfare.”

Sun Tzu, The Art of War

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.   

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,  inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

'Something very strange' explains why a US recession has been delayed

Fri, 21 July 2023 at 1:26 am BST

Since the Federal Reserve began aggressively hiking interest rates last year, more and more economists warned that a US recession was imminent.

But that recession has not yet arrived, and there's no sign a recession is near even after reliable indicators like the inverted yield curve flashed red flags.

According to Societe Generale, "something very strange has happened" that explains why a US recession has been delayed, and it has to do with some timely moves made by corporations.

The bank highlighted that going back to at least 1975, corporate net interest payments would rise as the Fed raised interest rates. But for the first time in a long time, that isn't happening. Instead, as the Fed raised rates over the past 15 months, corporate net interest payments actually fell.

"Normally when interest rates rise, so too do net debt payments, squeezing profit margins and slowing the economy. But not this time," Societe Generale's Albert Edwards said in a Thursday note, pointing to a chart that he called the "strangest" he has seen in a very long time.

So, what exactly is happening?

It turns out that during the period of near-zero interest rates, especially leading up to the pandemic and during the pandemic, corporations took advantage and refinanced a ton of their liabilities into long-term, low-rate, fixed debt.

According to data from Bank of America earlier this year, companies bought themselves some time to navigate higher rates. The debt composition of S&P 500 companies includes just 6% in short-term floating rate debt, just 8% in long-term floating rate debt, 10% in short-term fixed debt, and a whopping 76% in long-term fixed debt.

This "helps explain the recession's tardiness," SocGen's Edwards said, highlighting that net interest payments have fallen 25% at a time when they would have risen sharply based on history.

"Companies have effectively played the yield curve in reverse and become net beneficiaries of higher rates, adding 5% to profits over the last year instead of deducting 10%+ from profits as usual," Edwards said.

The lack of a profit decline means companies didn't have to resort to a big wave of layoffs that would have dented the economy and thrown it into a recession.

The low-rate, long-term debt held by corporations, combined with their pricing power during a time of elevated inflation, means most businesses were able to grow profits in a big way.

"Interest rates simply aren't working as they once did. It is indeed a mad, mad world," Edwards concluded.

All of this could change if companies have to refinance their debt at higher rates. But with most of their debts not maturing until 2025, 2026, 2027 and beyond, it's possible that interest rates could move lower between now and then, enabling companies to continue to ride the coattails of low rates and ultimately stave off a recession.

'Something very strange' explains why a US recession has been delayed (yahoo.com)

Below, why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.

The “New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking

https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf

Mines, Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check

https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check

"An Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As The Industry Races To Recycle

by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/environmental-disaster-ev-battery-metals-crunch-horizon-industry-races-recycle

 

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

Protective gene may help some dodge Covid-19 symptoms, study suggests

July 20, 2023

gene variant may have helped a lucky few avoid suffering Covid-19 symptoms, according to a new study.

Scientists have found that so-called “super-dodgers” carry a gene that helps them to fend off the virus before it causes symptoms such as coughs, shivers, fatigue and other signs of illness.

It is the first evidence that there is a genetic basis for asymptomatic Covid.

Researchers believe that new treatments and vaccines could be developed as a result of the findings.

The study, published in the journal Nature, focuses on human leukocyte antigens (HLAs) — proteins found on the surface of cells which help the immune system to recognise whether a particular cell is an unwelcome invader.

The protective gene allows the immune system to recognise that an HLA found on the coronavirus responsible for Covid-19 is similar to the HLA found on seasonal coronaviruses that cause routine colds.

This means if you have the protective gene and have previously been exposed to a seasonal coronavirus, your immune system will mobilise its defensive weaponry against a Covid-19 infection, so you will not suffer symptoms.

The gene variant, called HLA-B15, is only carried by about 3,000 of the study’s 30,000 subjects, who were tracked through the first year of the pandemic.

Professor Jill Hollenbach, of the Weill Institute for Neurosciences at the University of California San Francisco, who oversaw the research, said: “If you have an army that’s able to recognise the enemy early, that’s a huge advantage.

“It’s like having soldiers that are prepared for battle and already know what to look for, and that these are the bad guys.”

The study found that people with one copy of the protective gene were more than twice as likely to remain asymptomatic, compared with people without the gene.

Meanwhile, people with two copies of the gene were more than eight times as likely to not suffer symptoms during a Covid infection.

Protective gene may help some dodge Covid-19 symptoms, study suggests (msn.com)

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.

Graphene Makes PE Stretch Film Ultrathin and Strong

Film manufacturer Packseven is rolling out a recyclable polyethylene stretch film made with Gerdau’s graphene masterbatch that reduces virgin resin use by 15% to 30%.

Kate Bertrand Connolly | Jul 20, 2023

Graphene technology is to thank for the commercialization of a new type of stretch film that is significantly thinner and more durable than conventional alternatives. The new graphene-enhanced stretch film, from film manufacturer Packseven, incorporates the Poly-G graphene masterbatch from Gerdau Graphene.

The companies, both based in Brazil, claim Packseven’s new product is the world’s first commercial stretch film enhanced with graphene, an exceptionally strong material featuring an atomic monolayer of carbon atoms arranged hexagonally in a honeycomb-like structure.

When blended with plastics, graphene lends its strength to the polymer matrix and greatly strengthens the blended plastic. Graphene improves physical and mechanical properties like puncture-resistance and increases barrier properties against liquids and gasses. It also protects against weather, oxidation, and ultraviolet light, and boosts electrical and thermal conductivity.

Packseven’s graphene-enhanced stretch film is expected to be available for sale in the third quarter of 2023, launching in Brazil.

Additionally, “The Poly-G masterbatch used to create Packseven’s product is currently available in Brazil and Japan. In Japan, Gerdau Graphene has a strong partnership with Sumitomo to commercialize the product,” Alex Correa, CEO of Gerdau Graphene, tells us.

Poly-G can be exported to US plastics manufacturers, he adds.

Incorporating graphene into plastic films offers plastics companies and their customers transportation, storage, and packaging benefits vs. conventional films.

Initial testing of Packseven’s ultra-thin stretch film shows that the film can pack 120% more material without breaking, vs. other stretch films. Graphene-enhanced stretch films are more resistant to being punctured by sharp objects, as well.

The graphene-enhanced film’s durability translates into reduced consumption of stretch film per pallet and safer packing and loading. Its improved strength and durability also make it possible to significantly reduce the thickness of the film.

More

Graphene Makes PE Stretch Film Ultrathin and Strong (plasticstoday.com)

This weekend’s music diversion.  An almost unknown German Lutist composer. A big contrast to the flamboyant Te Deum of Lully of last week.  Approx. 12 minutes.

Gottfried Meusel (1688-1727) - Concerto in C-Dur

Gottfried Meusel (1688-1727) - Concerto in C-Dur - YouTube

Lute

lute (/ljuːt/[1] or /luːt/) is any plucked string instrument with a neck and a deep round back enclosing a hollow cavity, usually with a sound hole or opening in the body. It may be either fretted or unfretted.

More specifically, the term "lute" commonly refers to an instrument from the family of European lutes. The term also refers generally to any necked string instrument having the strings running in a plane parallel to the sound table (in the Hornbostel–Sachs system).

More

Lute - Wikipedia

This weekend’s chess update. Approx. 7 minutes.

Magnus Goes King's Gambit + 3.Qh5

Magnus Goes King's Gambit + 3.Qh5 - YouTube

No maths update this weekend. This weekend, what went wrong at the world’s longest sea bridge. Approx. 13 minutes.

The Colossal Failure of the World's Longest Sea Bridge

The Colossal Failure of the World's Longest Sea Bridge - YouTube

“I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones.”

Albert Einstein.

No comments:

Post a Comment