Tuesday, 4 July 2023

A Rate Top? China Strikes Back. Europe Slumps.

Baltic Dry Index. 1068 -23              Brent Crude 75.04

Spot Gold 1924                   US 2 Year Yield 4.94 +0.07  

"There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved."

Ludwig von Mises.

An interesting day ahead, even though the US markets are closed for the July 4th Independence Day holiday.

Did the Australian central bank just signal the end of all the global interest rate hikes?

Europe’s manufacturing sector has entered a slump.

Tired of America and Europe initiating a high tech trade war on China’s semiconductor industry, China today struck back.

 

Australia’s central bank leaves its key rate unchanged, says inflation ‘passed its peak’

Australia’s central bank held its official cash rate steady at 4.10% in a closely watched decision Tuesday.

Economists were split on expectations ahead of the decision, with 16 out of 31 respondents surveyed by Reuters forecasting a hike of 25 basis points and 15 expecting the central bank to hold.

Stocks cheered the move as the central bank said “inflation in Australia has passed its peak.” The S&P/ASX 200 pared earlier losses and rose 0.21%.

The Australia Bureau of Statistics’ monthly inflation indicator showed some cooling in the rise of prices at 5.6% for the month of May, led by housing prices, food and non-alcoholic beverages.

Australia’s monthly inflation indicator peaked at 8.4% in December. The economy’s consumer price index rose 7% in the first quarter of 2023.

The decision comes after the central bank raised its cash rate by 25 basis points last month — a move it described as a “finely balanced” decision, according to minutes from its June meeting.

More

Australia's central bank leaves its key rate unchanged, says inflation 'passed its peak' (cnbc.com)

Stocks eke out small gain to start second half of 2023, Tesla rises 6%: Live updates

UPDATED MON, JUL 3 2023 2:49 PM EDT

Stocks rose slightly Monday in a shortened session that kicked off the second half of what’s already been a stellar year on Wall Street.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 10.87 points, or 0.03%, to finish at 34,418.47. The S&P 500 climbed 0.12% to end at 4,455.59, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.21% to 13,816.77.

U.S. markets closed early ahead of the Fourth of July holiday. They will be closed Tuesday as well.

Tesla shares jumped 6.9% after the electric vehicle maker reported delivery and production numbers that beat analysts’ expectations. Other electric vehicle stocks including RivianFisker and Lucid rose in tandem.

Monday’s shortened session marked the start of a new trading month, quarter and half. On Friday, the Nasdaq Composite closed out its biggest first-half gain since 1983, surging 31.7%, while the S&P 500 jumped 15.9% for its best first-half performance since 2019. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lagged, climbing a modest 3.8% during the period.

Those gains came as enthusiasm around artificial intelligence boosted tech stocks. Recent data showing a resilient U.S. economy despite higher rates also lifted investor sentiment, easing some fears on Wall Street of a long-awaited downturn.

More

Stock market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)

Finally, in the tech war on China, China hits back.

 

China slaps export curbs on chipmaking metals in tech war with the U.S, Europe

China is restricting the exports of two metals key to the manufacturing of semiconductors, its commerce ministry said late Monday, escalating a technological trade war with Europe and the United States over access to microchips.

These new regulations — imposed on grounds of national security — will require exporters to seek a license to ship some gallium and germanium compounds starting Aug. 1, China’s commerce ministry said. Applications for these export licenses must identify importers and end users and stipulate how these metals will be used.

This move is part of an intensifying global battle for technological supremacy — with China as the world’s largest source of both metals, according to a European Union study on critical raw materials this year.

Shares of Chinese germanium producers soared on Tuesday. At the midday trading break, Yunnan Lincang Xinyuan Germanium Industrial surged by the 10% limit in Shenzhen, while Yunnan Chihong Zinc & Germanium pared earlier gains but was still 7.5% higher. Both are outperforming the 0.1% gain for the CSI 300 index of China’s largest A-share listings.

In October, the U.S. launched sweeping rules aimed at cutting off exports of key chips and semiconductor tools to China. The measures are believed to have the potential to cripple China’s ambitions to boost its domestic technology industries. The U.S. has also lobbied key chipmaking nations and allies, like the Netherlands and Japan, to introduce export restrictions of their own.

The Netherlands responded Friday with new export restrictions on advanced semiconductor equipment. This will effectively bar ASML from exporting to China. But these latest Dutch curbs do not specifically target ASML, one of the most important semiconductor companies in the world.

More

China slaps curbs on chipmaking metals in tech war with U.S., Europe (cnbc.com)

EU and Japan look to partner on A.I. and chips as China ‘de-risking’ strategy continues

The European Union is looking to cooperate more closely with Japan on key technologies such as artificial intelligence, the bloc’s industry chief said, as the coalition looks to reduce its reliance on China in certain areas.

EU Commissioner Thierry Breton is meeting with the Japanese government on Monday, and artificial intelligence will be “very high” on his agenda, he said in a video posted on Twitter on Sunday.

“I will engage with [the] Japanese government … on how we can organize our digital space, including AI based on our shared value,” Breton said.

Breton also said there will be an EU-Japan Digital Partnership council, to discuss areas including quantum and high-performance computing. The EU held a similar council with South Korea last week, in which the two sides agreed to cooperate on technologies such as AI and cybersecurity.

Partnerships with key Asian countries with strong technology sectors come as the EU looks to “de-risk” from China — a different approach from that of the U.S., which has sought to decouple its economy from Beijing.

Part of that EU strategy involves deepening the relationship with allied countries around technology.

More

EU, Japan look to partner on A.I., chips amid China 'de-risking' push (cnbc.com)

Factbox: Where are strategic materials germanium and gallium produced?

July 4, 20234:44 AM GMT+1

BEIJING, July 4 (Reuters) - China said on Monday it will impose export restrictions on some gallium and germanium products from Aug. 1 to protect national security interests.

Here are some details about gallium and germanium

WHERE IS GERMANIUM FOUND?

Germanium ores are rare and most germanium is produced as a by-product of zinc production and from coal fly ash.

China produces around 60% of the world's germanium, according to the European association Critical Raw Materials Alliance (CRMA), with the rest coming from Canada, Finland, Russia and the United States.

China exported 43.7 tons of unwrought and wrought germanium last year, according to Chinese customs.

WHAT ABOUT GALLIUM?

Gallium is found in trace amounts in zinc ores and in bauxite, and gallium metal is produced when processing bauxite to make aluminium. Around 80% is produced in China, according to the CRMA.

Gallium is used to make gallium arsenide for use in electronics. Only a few companies - one in Europe and the rest in Japan and China - can make it at the required purity, says the CRMA.

China exported 94 tons of gallium in 2022, up 25% on the prior year, according to Chinese customs.

More

Factbox: Where are strategic materials germanium and gallium produced? | Reuters

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Euro zone factory downturn deepened in June as ECB hikes bite-PMI

July 3, 2023

LONDON (Reuters) - Euro zone manufacturing activity contracted faster than initially thought in June as persistent policy tightening by the European Central Bank squeezed finances, according to a survey which painted an increasingly gloomy outlook for industry.

The downturn was broad-based with surveys published earlier on Monday showing factory activity in all four of the euro zone's biggest economies contracted last month.

Compiled by S&P Global, HCOB's final manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 43.4 from May's 44.8, its lowest since the COVID pandemic was cementing its grip on the world, below a preliminary reading of 43.6 and further from the 50 mark separating growth from contraction.

An index measuring output, which feeds into a composite PMI due on Wednesday that is seen as a good gauge of economic health, dropped to an eight-month low of 44.2 from 46.4.

"There is growing evidence that the capital-intensive industrial sector is reacting negatively to the ECB's interest rate hikes," said Cyrus de la Rubia, chief economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank.

In its battle to try and bring high inflation back to its 2% target the ECB has already added 400 basis points to key rates and is widely expected to add another 25 this month, hitting the spending power of indebted consumers and companies.

Demand weakened at the fastest pace in eight months despite sharper price cuts on manufactured goods so less optimistic factories reduced their workforce for the first time since early 2021. The employment index fell to 49.8 from 51.5.

Euro zone factory downturn deepened in June as ECB hikes bite-PMI (msn.com)

German manufacturing shrinks in June as demand weakens-PMI

July 3, 2023

BERLIN (Reuters) - Germany's manufacturing sector contracted at the fastest rate in more than three years in June, with both output and new orders falling, a survey showed on Monday.

The HCOB final Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for manufacturing, which accounts for about a fifth of Germany's economy, fell to 40.6 from 43.2 in May, the fifth consecutive monthly decline.

The manufacturing PMI has been below the 50 level that separates growth from contraction since July 2022.

German manufacturing firms reported deeper cuts to production levels at the end of the second quarter, in response to a sustained weakening of demand, the report said.

"Conditions in the manufacturing sector have undoubtedly worsened, but this is not a crash," said Cyrus de la Rubia, chief economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank AG.

The economist noted that new orders began falling from very high levels and manufacturers haven't resorted to job cuts yet.

Nevertheless, expectations towards output prospects in the coming year reached their lowest since last November as surveyed firms cited numerous headwinds to growth.

"Overall, the PMI data for manufacturing show that a recession in this sector, which was still expanding in the first quarter according to GDP statistics, has become much more likely," de la Rubia said.

German manufacturing shrinks in June as demand weakens-PMI (msn.com)

Italy's manufacturing shrinks at steepest rate since COVID lockdowns - PMI

July 3, 2023

ROME (Reuters) - Italy's manufacturing sector contracted in June at the steepest rate in over three years, a survey showed on Monday, signalling a recession ahead unless buoyant services can prop up the euro zone's third largest economy.

The HCOB Global Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for Italian manufacturing came in at 43.8, down from 45.9 in May and well below the 50 mark that separates growth from contraction for a third consecutive month.

"The recession in Italian industry ... seems to be deepening," said HCOB economist Tariq Kamal Chaudhry.

The reading missed the median forecast of 45.4 in a Reuters survey of analysts and was the lowest since April 2020, when Italian industry was shuttered by lockdowns at the height of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The manufacturing output sub-index plunged to 42.7 from May's 46.4, while the new orders indicator dropped to 40.1 from 44.3.

The Italian economy has been giving extremely mixed signals in recent months, with the industry and especially the manufacturing sectors struggling badly, but services and employment growing amid a boom in tourist arrivals.

The services PMI, to be released on Wednesday, is expected to show the sector slowing in June but still registering some growth, according to Reuters' survey.

Industrial output tumbled 1.9% in April from the month before, the fourth consecutive monthly decline, data from national statistics bureau ISTAT showed last month.

Gross domestic product rose 0.6% in the first quarter from the previous three months, rebounding from a 0.1% drop at the end of 2022.

The government is officially forecasting GDP growth of 1.0% this year, slowing compared with last year's rate of 3.7%.

Italy's manufacturing shrinks at steepest rate since COVID lockdowns - PMI (msn.com)

UK manufacturing sinks to six-month low amid demand slump

July 3, 2023

The UK’s manufacturing sector has shrunk to a six-month low as producers continue to battle lacklustre demand at home and overseas, leading to nearly a year of decline.

But manufacturers’ input costs fell at the sharpest rate since 2016, a “symptom” of weak demand, the influential survey found.

The closely watched S&P Global/CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI survey showed a reading of 46.5 in June, down from 47.1 in May, but coming in slightly ahead of economists’ expectations.

A score below 50 shows the sector has contracted, while anything above 50 indicates growth.

The survey has shown a negative reading for 11 months in a row, as the downturn facing the sector deepens.

The UK manufacturing sector continued to report recessionary conditions in June

Rob Dobson. director for S&P Global Market Intelligence

Levels of output, new orders and employment all declined during June, despite signs that price and supply pressures were easing.

Manufacturers came up against weak demand in both domestic and overseas markets, leading to a sharp decline in new orders and a reluctance among customers to commit to new contracts, the report found.

Weaker interest from regions including the US, ChinaEurope and Brazil brought down exports, while foreign demand declined for the 17th month in a row and at the fastest rate all year.

Meanwhile, fewer new orders led producers to reassess their staffing levels, driving down employment further. Job losses also reflected weaker demand, redundancies and cost saving initiatives, according to the survey.

More

UK manufacturing sinks to six-month low amid demand slump (msn.com)

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

 

Moderna Submits Regulatory Application to the European Medicines Agency for Its Updated COVID-19 Vaccine

Mon, 3 July 2023 at 6:00 am BST

CAMBRIDGE, MA / ACCESSWIRE / July 3, 2023 / Moderna, Inc. (NASDAQ:MRNA), a biotechnology company pioneering messenger RNA (mRNA) therapeutics and vaccines, today announced that it has submitted a regulatory application to the European Medicines Agency (EMA) for its updated COVID-19 vaccine encoding the spike protein for the XBB.1.5 sublineage of SARS-CoV-2.

"We are proud to announce this filing for our updated COVID-19 vaccine and continue to support the European Union in protecting citizens against COVID-19," said Stéphane Bancel, Chief Executive Officer of Moderna. "Our preliminary clinical testing showed that our updated COVID-19 vaccine is effective in generating an immune response against the current XBB variants of concern, and we believe it will play a critical role in protecting against severe disease and hospitalization. We look forward to working with the EMA to bring our updated vaccine to people across the European Union."

The application is based on guidance from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) and the EMA, which recommended that COVID-19 vaccines be updated to a monovalent XBB.1.5 composition. This aligns with other regulators and global public health agencies recommending a monovalent XBB.1.5 composition. Additionally, Moderna has generated preliminary clinical data of its monovalent XBB.1.5 vaccine candidate showing an immune response against XBB descendent sublineages such as XBB.1.5, XBB.1.16, and XBB.2.3.2.

Moderna is in the process of submitting data to regulators worldwide to advance its updated COVID-19 vaccine in time for the autumn/winter vaccination season and has recently filed with the U.S. Food & Drug Administration, Health Canada, and other health authorities.

More

Moderna Submits Regulatory Application to the European Medicines Agency for Its Updated COVID-19 Vaccine (yahoo.com)

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Battery storage projects to empower Africa's grid

Created: 03 July 2023

---- Africa in recent years has witnessed a rapid increase in the adoption of renewable energy sources such as solar and wind power to meet its growing energy demands. However, the intermittent characteristics of these sources present significant challenges pertaining to maintaining grid stability. Battery storage projects, with their ability to offer a reliable and efficient solution to harness the potential of renewable energy, have the potential to be a game-changer and could transform Africa's grid infrastructure in the years to come.

Battery storage projects not only enhance grid stability by mitigating fluctuations caused by intermittent renewable energy sources but also ensure consistent and reliable power supply by storing excess energy in periods of high generation and ensure grid stability by releasing it during low-production times, thus decreasing the likelihood of power outages.

Battery storage projects also help enable peak shaving and load management, thus optimising electricity utilisation. This optimisation of renewable energy usage not only minimises the reliance on fossil fuel-based power plants but also fosters a cleaner and more sustainable energy mix.

Another significant advantage of battery projects lies in their contribution to Africa’s rural electrification efforts. Combining renewable energy sources with battery storage helps enable the establishment of microgrids in areas where connection to the main grid is challenging, thus bringing reliable and affordable electricity access to off-grid communities, thereby driving economic development and enhancing the quality of life for millions.

Overall, battery storage projects have the potential to revolutionise Africa's grid infrastructure and pave the way for a sustainable and resilient energy future in Africa. Therefore, it is important that governments, investors, and stakeholders continue to support and promote the deployment of battery storage systems to unlock the full potential of renewable energy and power Africa's growth.

Battery storage projects to empower Africa's grid (africanreview.com)

 

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