Friday, 14 July 2023

Bastille Day. US Inflation Beat? A Big Crypto Win.

Baltic Dry Index. 1103 +15              Brent Crude 81.39

Spot Gold 1960                        US 2 Year Yield 4.59 -0.13   

Bastille Day is the common name given in English-speaking countries to the national day of France.

The French National Day is the anniversary of the Storming of the Bastille on 14 July 1789,[1][2] a major event of the French Revolution.

Bastille Day - Wikipedia

With yesterday’s US PPI figure weaker than expected, the stock casino punters are all now heavily betting that the US Fed is about ready to declare victory in its war on US inflation.

Even if the Fed raises its key interest rate next week by another quarter of one percent, the US rate hikes will have come to an end, with the next Fed interest rates moves down.

Well, if that assessment is correct, it’s time to move money out of stocks and banks and into money market funds to lock up far safer interest returns than likely available from stocks ahead of the next global economic downturn.

Besides, Cryptoland investments just got a big boost yesterday.

 

Asia-Pacific markets rise as more U.S. inflation data comes in softer than expected

UPDATED FRI, JUL 14 2023 12:35 AM EDT

Asia-Pacific markets rose on Friday after more inflation data out from the U.S. came in softer than expected, raising optimism that inflation could come down without weakening the labor market.

The U.S. producer price index rose in June less than anticipated, climbing 0.1% year on year, while core PPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, climbed 0.1% — also lower than expectations.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 climbed 0.8% after the government appointed its central bank deputy governor Michele Bullock as the next governor for the Reserve Bank of Australia, to succeed incumbent Philip Lowe.

In Japan, the Nikkei 225 rose 0.3%, while the Topix was up 0.1% as investors digested its industrial production release for May. South Korea’s Kospi rose 1.17%, leading gains in the region and the Kosdaq inched higher.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index gained 0.25% in its first hour of trade, continuing the rally seen on Thursday. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite rose 0.3% while the Shenzhen Component rose 0.02%.

Singapore’s economy grew in the second quarter of the year, avoiding a technical recession. The Straits Times index rose 0.3% after the release.

Overnight in the U.S., all three major indexes recorded a fourth straight day of gains, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite closing at their highest levels in over a year.

The S&P 500 climbed 0.85%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.14%. The Nasdaq Composite gained the most, gaining 1.58%.

Asia-Pacific markets rise as more U.S. inflation data comes in softer than expected (cnbc.com)

Asia stocks set for best week of 2023, dollar reels on dovish Fed bets

By Kevin Buckland 

TOKYO, July 14 (Reuters) - Asian stocks rose on Friday, on course for their best week this year, as a cooling in U.S. inflation stoked speculation that the Federal Reserve could pause rate hikes after this month.

 

The dollar sank to a fresh 15-month low against major peers and U.S. Treasury yields languished near multi-week lows following the sharpest weekly drop in four months.

Gold was poised for its best week in three months as the dollar floundered, while crude oil rose to the highest in nearly three months.

 

While money market traders still see a quarter point bump to the Fed funds rate on July 26 as close to a sure thing, they have reduced the chances of another this year to just 1-in-5.

 

Data on Thursday showed the smallest increase in U.S. factory gate inflation in nearly three years, reinforcing the milder inflation outlook after a report the previous day showing consumer price gains mitigated to the slowest pace in more than two years.

 

"What it means is we've got the Fed with its chest pretty much crossing the finish line at the end of the most aggressive tightening cycle in four decades, so it does warrant the rapid repricing that we've seen in many of these asset classes," said Tony Sycamore, a market analyst at IG in Sydney.

 

"The equity market absolutely took off, and the dollar is under intense pressure."

More

Asia stocks set for best week of 2023, dollar reels on dovish Fed bets | Reuters

June wholesale prices rise less than expected in another encouraging inflation report

PUBLISHED THU, JUL 13 2023 8:49 AM EDT

The producer price index for June had a smaller than expected increase, the Labor Department reported Thursday, in the latest sign that inflation is calming in the United States.

The PPI for final demand rose 0.1%. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones were expecting a rise of 0.2%. PPI rose 0.1% when excluding food, energy and trade services, which was in line with expectations.

The producer report comes a day after the consumer price index showed a smaller-than-expected increase. The CPI rose just 3% year over year, its lowest since March 2021, bolstering hopes for investors that the Federal Reserve is near the end of its rate-hiking cycle.

The wholesale producer numbers have declined faster than the consumer inflation data. In May, the headline PPI number actually declined 0.4%, and was unchanged when excluding food, energy and trade services.

PPI June 2023: Wholesale prices rise less than expected (cnbc.com)

In commodities news, Cocoa is in play.

Cargill Is Behind Big Trade That Rattled the London Cocoa Market

Top crop trader has been building a dominant market position

Trade is biggest since ‘Chocfinger’ tried to corner the market

Cargill Is Behind Big Trade That Rattled the London Cocoa Market - Bloomberg

Finally, in cryptoland a big win for Ripple and other token issuers, with giant implications for the future of crypto if this ruling stands.

XRP coin surges after judge delivers a huge win to Ripple in SEC case

Ripple’s XRP token surged on Thursday after a judge in the Southern District of New York ruled that it’s “not necessarily a security on its face.”

The price of XRP was last higher by 71% at about 80 cents a coin, according to Coin Metrics. The news gave hope to crypto investors, who breathed a sigh of relief that other altcoins also may not be considered securities after all. Polygon’s matic token gained 17.82%. Litecoin and the Solana jumped 18.35%, and Cardano’s token advanced 20.31%. Bitcoin and ether got a boost too, rising more than 4% and 6%, respectively.

“The judgments today are a huge step forward for the industry,” Chris Martin, head of research at Amberdata, told CNBC. “By judging that XRP is not a security we’re starting to get clarity on what constitutes a security and what constitutes a commodity — the SEC will have to revise their tactics on several of their ongoing cases and I expect that this judgment will implicate several other tokens as non-securities.”

“The judgments today are a huge step forward for the industry,” Chris Martin, head of research at Amberdata, told CNBC. “By judging that XRP is not a security we’re starting to get clarity on what constitutes a security and what constitutes a commodity — the SEC will have to revise their tactics on several of their ongoing cases and I expect that this judgment will implicate several other tokens as non-securities.”

The news marks the latest development in a three-year battle between Ripple and the Securities and Exchange Commission. There is a possibility that some of these findings could be appealed and reversed. Indeed, the filing said that the court would issue a separate order setting a trial date.

In 2020, the SEC sued Ripple for breaching U.S. securities laws by selling XRP without first registering it with the agency.

---- The ruling was divided into three sets of factual circumstances surrounding sales of XRP: institutional sales, programmatic sales and “other distributions,” such as employee compensation.

The court sided with the SEC when it came to “Ripple’s Institutional Sales of XRP to sophisticated individuals and entities,” saying they were securities transactions and constituted an investment of money. Ripple won when it came to “programmatic” sales, however, or sales made through trading algorithms, as well as other distributions.

More

XRP coin surges after judge delivers a huge win to Ripple in SEC case (cnbc.com)

You may be sure that the Americans will commit all the stupidities they can think of, plus some that are beyond imagination.

Charles de Gaulle.

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

CNN goes off on a US inflation victory lap, but I think they’re a little early about that soft landing.

Inflation fever is finally breaking. The Fed’s soft landing may be in sight

Published 7:45 AM EDT, Thu July 13, 2023

New YorkCNN — If Fed Chair Jerome Powell were any less buttoned up, he’d be well within his rights to call a press conference, stride up to the lectern in a T-shirt and board shorts and say three words — “soft landing, jerks!” — before dropping the mic and walking out.

Jay won’t do that, of course. But I can’t help imagine him quietly fist-pumping the moment he got wind of the latest inflation data.

ICYMI: Annual inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, slowed to 3% last month — the slowest rate in more than two years and the 12th consecutive month of declines.

For context, a year ago the CPI peaked at 9.1% — the worst inflation in more than 40 years.

After a punishing stretch of rising prices, “the fever is breaking,” wrote Bill Adams, chief economist for Comerica Bank.

That is, to be clear, fan-freakin-tastic.

You can quibble (and many Twitter commentators did) that Wednesday’s CPI report is not a slam dunk — core inflation, which excludes food and and energy prices, is still uncomfortably high, at 4.8%. But we are objectively much better off than we were a year ago, and all signs point toward inflation continuing to ease.

(For the record, the Fed has a 2% target for inflation. And while the CPI gets more headlines, central bank officials favor a different inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index. The most recent core PCE index reading was 4.6% in May.)

Jay Powell and Co. probably can’t go on holiday just yet.

“We’ve seen these repeated predictions that recession is right around the corner — and the data have instead delivered continued resilience in the economy,” said Lael Brainard, President Joe Biden’s top economic adviser. “The US is defying expectations that inflation wouldn’t fall absent significant job destruction.”

The resilience Brainard is referring to:

·         Since 2021, consumers and businesses have barely flinched while absorbing the Federal Reserve’s 10 back-to-back interest rate hikes.

·         The labor market, which is usually hurt by rising rates, remains steadfast. Unemployment is hovering at around 50-year lows and businesses are still adding jobs at a rate of more than 200,000 per month.

·         For most of the past two years, wage growth hadn’t kept up with inflation, but even that looks like it’s shifting. Wages were broadly up 4.4% in June.

In other words, the Fed may actually pull off the “soft landing” — lowering inflation without tanking the economy — that few believed was doable even six months ago.

“The odds of achieving a soft landing just went up drastically,” Dan Alpert, managing director of Westwood Capital, told me. “I’m not saying there won’t be a recession, I just think the recession’s not going to be in 2023.”

Even Jamie Dimon, the JPMorgan Chase CEO who warned a year ago that an economic “hurricane” was coming, is reassessing. In an interview with The Economist this week, he said those storm clouds had only “partially hit.”

Bottom line: The CPI brought us a rare dose of good news, and the Fed deserves at least some of the credit for the relatively smooth disinflation — sans mass layoffs — over the last 12 months. While markets are still betting on yet another rate hike from the Fed later this month, they now expect that will be the last of the tightening.

Inflation fever is finally breaking. The Fed's soft landing may be in sight | CNN Business

Belgium is a country invented by the British to annoy the French.

Charles de Gaulle.

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

 

Chinese Military May Have Had COVID-19 Virus in Its Possession as Early as September 2019

People’s Liberation Army scientists applied for COVID vaccine patent in February 2020

July 11, 2023 Updated: July 12, 2023

 

---- And yet, over three years since the beginning of the pandemic, we still don’t know where the virus originated. The fear is that the next time around, the number of deaths could be much higher; because we didn’t learn from this pandemic, we wouldn’t be as prepared as we should for the next one.

This fear is shared by all Americans. That is probably why in March, the U.S. Congress unanimously passed the “COVID-19 Origin Act of 2023,” requesting that the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) “declassify all information relating to potential links between the Wuhan Institute of Virology and the origin of COVID-19.” “The ODNI must submit to Congress an unclassified report with all such information with redactions only as necessary to protect sources and methods,” the new law says.

On June 23, ODNI released a 10-page report titled “Potential Links Between the Wuhan Institute of Virology and the Origin of the COVID-19 Pandemic.” As someone who has been following this development closely, ODNI’s report told me nothing beyond what I already knew, except for one little gem on page 5: that the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) had developed a technique that “left no traces of genetic modification of SARS-like coronaviruses.”

“Some of the WIV’s genetic engineering projects on coronaviruses involved techniques that could make it difficult to detect intentional changes,” the report stated.

Why did the WIV want to develop such a technique? Scientists at the institute had been publishing their research on viruses in the best scientific journals, including on “genetic modification of SARS-like coronaviruses,” so it didn’t look like they wanted to hide what they had been doing. Maybe what they published was only part of their research, and they wanted to conceal the research they didn’t publish? What would that be?

Before the ODNI report, U.S. investigative journalists revealed in early June that three WIV researchers, Ben Hu, Ping Yu, and Yan Zhu, were allegedly the first COVID-19 patients, having fallen ill in the fall of 2019. They were reportedly conducting research on SARS-like viruses and engaging in “gain-of-function” experiments. Gain-of-function, which involves altering the properties of a pathogen in order to study its potential impact on human health, increases the infectiousness of viruses and/or makes them more lethal.

The WIV denied such allegations. “The recent news about so-called ‘patient zero’ in WIV are absolutely rumors and ridiculous,” Ben Hu told the journal Science in June.

I was hoping that the ODNI report would shed more light on the origin of SARS-CoV-2. It didn’t, but a patent application I found through a web search strongly suggests that the Liberation Army (PLA) had the genetic sequence of the virus in its possession as early as September 2019. This would fit well with the allegation that the three WIV scientists were infected by the virus in the fall of 2019.

It’s worth noting that the same allegation was made by the Department of Justice in a fact sheet published Jan. 15, 2021, which said the U.S. government had “reason to believe that several researchers inside the WIV became sick in autumn 2019, before the first identified case of the outbreak.”

More

Chinese Military May Have Had COVID-19 Virus in Its Possession as Early as September 2019 (theepochtimes.com)

 

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

INNengine “one-stroke” waves away conventional engine design

Aaron Turpen  July 11, 2023

With a slogan like “The Future is Ecclectic,” we’d expect some interesting things from INNengine, a startup based in Spain. The company is showcasing a “one-stroke” engine that works as an opposed piston with a wavy twist.

The “one-stroke” is in quotes as the engine is actually a two stroke (by definition), in that it has two movements (strokes) in its combustion process. Unlike most conventional two-stroke engines, however, the INNengine e-Rex doesn’t burn oil or even use one of those strokes to lubricate or cool itself. Those happen separately as they would with a conventional four-stroke automotive engine.

In those conventional engines, intake, compression, combustion, and exhaust strokes all take place separately. In a two-stroke engine, there is only compression and combustion, with intake/exhaust happening simultaneously with those. Two-stroke engines are generally more powerful for their package size and more thermodynamically efficient than four-stroke engines. But conventional designs are also dirty and (more often than not) noisy.

With the INNengine e-Rex, all of the advantages of a two-stroke engine are there, but the disadvantages are not. Making it a compelling option. It also outputs at one or both sides without much modification, which means it can be used to propel more than one axle easily.

The INNengine design is an opposed piston setup in which there are four pistons on each side to make eight in all. The opposing pistons share a combustion chamber and have fixed rods behind them. These rods press on plates with an oscillating wave-like design so that the rods press and release the pistons in a smooth, coordinated movement. Intake and exhaust happens as it would with a two-stroke engine, with the exhaust port being just ahead of the intake port so that it leaves and begins creating a vacuum just as the piston moves past the intake port, to allow fresh air in for the next cycle. Fuel and spark are fed as they would be with any other piston-based engine.

This opposed piston setup makes for smooth operation with very low noise and vibration, while the packaging keeps the whole engine small. What’s more, controlling the gap between the pistons during compression by shifting one or the other end plate slightly allows for variable compression as well. Improving efficiency even more.

More + GIF animation.

INNengine “one-stroke” waves away conventional engine design (newatlas.com)

Another weekend and an inflation free weekend for most Americans? Well, inflation free provided they don’t buy food and drink, gasoline or pay rent. Have a great weekend everyone.

How can anyone govern a nation that has two hundred and forty-six different kinds of cheese?

Charles de Gaulle.

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