Baltic Dry Index. 1103 +15 Brent Crude 81.39
Spot Gold 1960 US 2 Year Yield 4.59 -0.13
Bastille Day is the common name given in English-speaking countries to the national day of France.
The French National Day is the anniversary of the Storming of the Bastille on 14 July 1789,[1][2] a major event of the French Revolution.
With yesterday’s US PPI figure weaker than expected, the stock casino punters are all now heavily betting that the US Fed is about ready to declare victory in its war on US inflation.
Even if the Fed raises its key interest rate next week by another quarter of one percent, the US rate hikes will have come to an end, with the next Fed interest rates moves down.
Well, if that assessment is correct, it’s time to move money out of stocks and banks and into money market funds to lock up far safer interest returns than likely available from stocks ahead of the next global economic downturn.
Besides, Cryptoland investments just got a
big boost yesterday.
Asia-Pacific markets rise as more U.S. inflation
data comes in softer than expected
UPDATED FRI, JUL 14 2023 12:35 AM
EDT
Asia-Pacific markets rose on Friday after more
inflation data out from the U.S. came in softer than expected, raising optimism
that inflation could come down without weakening the labor market.
The
U.S. producer price index rose in June less than anticipated,
climbing 0.1% year on year, while core PPI, which strips out volatile food and
energy prices, climbed 0.1% — also lower than expectations.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 climbed
0.8% after the government
appointed its central bank deputy governor Michele Bullock as
the next governor for the Reserve Bank of Australia, to succeed incumbent
Philip Lowe.
In Japan, the Nikkei 225 rose
0.3%, while the Topix was up 0.1% as investors digested its industrial
production release for May. South Korea’s Kospi rose 1.17%, leading gains in
the region and the Kosdaq inched higher.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index gained
0.25% in its first hour of trade, continuing the rally seen on Thursday. In
mainland China, the Shanghai
Composite rose 0.3% while the Shenzhen Component rose
0.02%.
Singapore’s economy grew in the
second quarter of the year, avoiding a technical recession. The Straits Times index rose
0.3% after the release.
Overnight in the U.S., all three major indexes
recorded a fourth straight day of gains, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite closing
at their highest levels in over a year.
The S&P 500 climbed 0.85%,
while the Dow Jones Industrial Average added
0.14%. The Nasdaq Composite gained
the most, gaining 1.58%.
Asia-Pacific markets
rise as more U.S. inflation data comes in softer than expected (cnbc.com)
Asia stocks set for
best week of 2023, dollar reels on dovish Fed bets
By Kevin Buckland July 14, 20233:39 AM GMT+1
TOKYO, July 14 (Reuters) - Asian stocks
rose on Friday, on course for their best week this year, as a cooling in U.S.
inflation stoked speculation that the Federal Reserve could pause rate hikes
after this month.
The dollar sank to a
fresh 15-month low against major peers and U.S. Treasury yields languished near
multi-week lows following the sharpest weekly drop in four months.
Gold was poised for
its best week in three months as the dollar floundered, while crude oil rose to
the highest in nearly three months.
While money market
traders still see a quarter point bump to the Fed funds rate on July 26 as
close to a sure thing, they have reduced the chances of another this year to
just 1-in-5.
Data on Thursday
showed the smallest increase in U.S. factory gate inflation in nearly three
years, reinforcing the milder inflation outlook
after a report the previous day showing consumer price gains mitigated to the
slowest pace in more than two years.
"What it means
is we've got the Fed with its chest pretty much crossing the finish line at the
end of the most aggressive tightening cycle in four decades, so it does warrant
the rapid repricing that we've seen in many of these asset classes," said
Tony Sycamore, a market analyst at IG in Sydney.
"The equity
market absolutely took off, and the dollar is under intense pressure."
More
Asia
stocks set for best week of 2023, dollar reels on dovish Fed bets | Reuters
June wholesale prices rise less than expected in
another encouraging inflation report
PUBLISHED THU, JUL 13 2023 8:49
AM EDT
The producer price index for June had a smaller
than expected increase, the Labor Department reported
Thursday, in the latest sign that inflation is calming in the United States.
The PPI for final demand rose 0.1%. Economists
surveyed by Dow Jones were expecting a rise of 0.2%. PPI rose 0.1% when
excluding food, energy and trade services, which was in line with expectations.
The producer report comes a day after the consumer price index showed
a smaller-than-expected increase. The CPI rose just 3% year over year, its
lowest since March 2021, bolstering hopes for investors that the Federal
Reserve is near the end of its rate-hiking cycle.
The wholesale producer numbers have declined faster than the
consumer inflation data. In May, the headline PPI number actually declined
0.4%, and was unchanged when excluding food, energy and trade services.
PPI June 2023: Wholesale prices rise less than
expected (cnbc.com)
In commodities news, Cocoa is in play.
Cargill
Is Behind Big Trade That Rattled the London Cocoa Market
Top
crop trader has been building a dominant market position
Trade
is biggest since ‘Chocfinger’ tried to corner the market
Cargill
Is Behind Big Trade That Rattled the London Cocoa Market - Bloomberg
Finally, in cryptoland a big win for Ripple and other token
issuers, with giant implications for the future of crypto if this ruling stands.
XRP coin surges after judge delivers a huge
win to Ripple in SEC case
Ripple’s XRP token
surged on Thursday after a judge in the Southern District of New York ruled
that it’s “not necessarily a security on its face.”
The price of XRP was last higher by
71% at about 80 cents a coin, according to Coin Metrics. The news gave hope to
crypto investors, who breathed a sigh of relief that other altcoins also may
not be considered securities after all. Polygon’s matic token
gained 17.82%. Litecoin and
the Solana jumped
18.35%, and Cardano’s token
advanced 20.31%. Bitcoin and ether got
a boost too, rising more than 4% and 6%, respectively.
“The judgments today are a huge step forward for
the industry,” Chris Martin, head of research at Amberdata, told CNBC. “By
judging that XRP is not a security we’re starting to get clarity on what
constitutes a security and what constitutes a commodity — the SEC will have to
revise their tactics on several of their ongoing cases and I expect that this
judgment will implicate several other tokens as non-securities.”
“The judgments today are a huge step forward for
the industry,” Chris Martin, head of research at Amberdata, told CNBC. “By
judging that XRP is not a security we’re starting to get clarity on what
constitutes a security and what constitutes a commodity — the SEC will have to
revise their tactics on several of their ongoing cases and I expect that this
judgment will implicate several other tokens as non-securities.”
The news marks the latest development in a
three-year battle between Ripple and the Securities and Exchange Commission.
There is a possibility that some of these findings could be appealed and
reversed. Indeed, the filing said that the court would issue a separate order
setting a trial date.
In 2020, the SEC sued
Ripple for breaching U.S. securities laws by selling XRP
without first registering it with the agency.
---- The ruling was divided into three sets of
factual circumstances surrounding sales of XRP: institutional sales,
programmatic sales and “other distributions,” such as employee compensation.
The court sided with
the SEC when it came to “Ripple’s Institutional Sales of XRP to sophisticated
individuals and entities,” saying they were securities transactions and
constituted an investment of money. Ripple won when it came to “programmatic”
sales, however, or sales made through trading algorithms, as well as other
distributions.
More
XRP
coin surges after judge delivers a huge win to Ripple in SEC case (cnbc.com)
You may be sure that the Americans will commit all the stupidities they can think of, plus some that are beyond imagination.
Charles de Gaulle.
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
CNN
goes off on a US inflation victory lap, but I think they’re a little early about
that soft landing.
Inflation fever is finally
breaking. The Fed’s soft landing may be in sight
Published
7:45 AM EDT, Thu July 13, 2023
New YorkCNN — If Fed Chair Jerome Powell were any less buttoned up, he’d
be well within his rights to call a press conference, stride up to the lectern
in a T-shirt and board shorts and say three words — “soft landing, jerks!” —
before dropping the mic and walking out.
Jay
won’t do that, of course. But I can’t help imagine him quietly fist-pumping the
moment he got wind of the latest inflation data.
ICYMI: Annual
inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, slowed to 3% last month — the slowest rate in more than two years and
the 12th consecutive month of declines.
For
context, a year ago the CPI peaked at 9.1% — the worst inflation in more than
40 years.
After
a punishing stretch of rising prices, “the fever is breaking,” wrote Bill
Adams, chief economist for Comerica Bank.
That
is, to be clear, fan-freakin-tastic.
You
can quibble (and many Twitter commentators did) that Wednesday’s CPI report is
not a slam dunk — core inflation, which excludes food and and energy prices, is
still uncomfortably high, at 4.8%. But we are objectively much better off than
we were a year ago, and all signs point toward inflation continuing to ease.
(For
the record, the Fed has a 2% target for inflation. And while the CPI gets more
headlines, central bank officials favor a different inflation gauge, the
Personal Consumption Expenditures price index. The most recent core PCE index
reading was 4.6% in May.)
Jay
Powell and Co. probably can’t go on holiday just yet.
“We’ve
seen these repeated predictions that recession is right around the corner — and
the data have instead delivered continued resilience in the economy,” said Lael Brainard, President Joe Biden’s top economic adviser. “The
US is defying expectations that inflation wouldn’t fall absent significant job
destruction.”
The
resilience Brainard is referring to:
·
Since 2021, consumers
and businesses have barely flinched while absorbing the Federal Reserve’s 10
back-to-back interest rate hikes.
·
The labor market,
which is usually hurt by rising rates, remains steadfast. Unemployment is
hovering at around 50-year lows and businesses are still adding jobs at a rate
of more than 200,000 per month.
·
For most of the past
two years, wage growth hadn’t kept up with inflation, but even that looks like
it’s shifting. Wages were broadly up 4.4% in June.
In
other words, the Fed may actually pull off the “soft landing” — lowering
inflation without tanking the economy — that few believed was doable even six
months ago.
“The
odds of achieving a soft landing just went up drastically,” Dan Alpert,
managing director of Westwood Capital, told me. “I’m not saying there won’t be
a recession, I just think the recession’s not going to be in 2023.”
Even
Jamie Dimon, the JPMorgan Chase CEO who warned a year ago that an economic
“hurricane” was coming, is reassessing. In an interview with The Economist this week,
he said those storm clouds had only “partially hit.”
Bottom
line: The CPI brought us a
rare dose of good news, and the Fed deserves at least some of the credit for
the relatively smooth disinflation — sans mass layoffs — over the last 12
months. While markets are still betting on yet another rate hike from the Fed
later this month, they now expect that will be the last of the tightening.
Inflation fever is finally breaking. The Fed's soft
landing may be in sight | CNN Business
Belgium is a country invented by the British to annoy the French.
Charles de Gaulle.
Covid-19 Corner
This
section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Chinese
Military May Have Had COVID-19 Virus in Its Possession as Early as September
2019
People’s
Liberation Army scientists applied for COVID vaccine patent in February 2020
July 11, 2023 Updated: July
12, 2023
---- And yet, over three years since
the beginning of the pandemic, we still don’t know where the virus originated.
The fear is that the next time around, the number of deaths could be much
higher; because we didn’t learn from this pandemic, we wouldn’t be as prepared
as we should for the next one.
This fear is shared by all Americans. That is
probably why in March, the U.S. Congress unanimously passed the “COVID-19 Origin Act of 2023,” requesting that the Office of
the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) “declassify all information
relating to potential links between the Wuhan Institute of Virology and the
origin of COVID-19.” “The ODNI must submit to Congress an unclassified report
with all such information with redactions only as necessary to protect sources
and methods,” the new law says.
On June 23, ODNI released a 10-page report titled “Potential Links Between the
Wuhan Institute of Virology and the Origin of the COVID-19 Pandemic.” As
someone who has been following this development closely, ODNI’s report told me
nothing beyond what I already knew, except for one little gem on page 5: that
the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) had developed a technique that “left no traces
of genetic modification of SARS-like coronaviruses.”
“Some of the WIV’s genetic engineering projects on
coronaviruses involved techniques that could make it difficult to detect
intentional changes,” the report stated.
Why did the WIV want to develop such a technique?
Scientists at the institute had been publishing their research on viruses in
the best scientific journals, including on “genetic modification of SARS-like
coronaviruses,” so it didn’t look like they wanted to hide what they had been
doing. Maybe what they published was only part of their research, and they
wanted to conceal the research they didn’t publish? What would that be?
Before the ODNI report, U.S. investigative
journalists revealed in early June that three WIV researchers, Ben Hu, Ping Yu, and Yan Zhu, were allegedly the first
COVID-19 patients, having fallen ill in the fall of 2019. They were reportedly
conducting research on SARS-like viruses and engaging in “gain-of-function”
experiments. Gain-of-function, which involves altering the properties of a
pathogen in order to study its potential impact on human health, increases the
infectiousness of viruses and/or makes them more lethal.
The WIV denied such allegations. “The recent news
about so-called ‘patient zero’ in WIV are absolutely rumors and ridiculous,”
Ben Hu told the journal Science in June.
I was hoping that the ODNI report would shed more
light on the origin of SARS-CoV-2. It didn’t, but a patent application I found
through a web search strongly suggests that the Liberation Army (PLA) had the
genetic sequence of the virus in its possession as early as September 2019.
This would fit well with the allegation that the three WIV scientists were
infected by the virus in the fall of 2019.
It’s worth noting that the same allegation was made
by the Department of Justice in a fact sheet published Jan. 15, 2021, which said the
U.S. government had “reason to believe that several researchers inside the WIV
became sick in autumn 2019, before the first identified case of the outbreak.”
More
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
INNengine “one-stroke” waves away conventional engine
design
Aaron Turpen July 11, 2023
With a slogan like “The Future is Ecclectic,” we’d expect
some interesting things from INNengine, a startup based in Spain. The company
is showcasing a “one-stroke” engine that works as an opposed piston with a wavy
twist.
The “one-stroke” is in quotes as the engine is actually a two
stroke (by definition), in that it has two movements (strokes) in its
combustion process. Unlike most conventional two-stroke engines, however, the
INNengine e-Rex doesn’t burn oil or even use one of those strokes to lubricate
or cool itself. Those happen separately as they would with a conventional
four-stroke automotive engine.
In those conventional engines, intake, compression, combustion, and
exhaust strokes all take place separately. In a two-stroke engine, there is
only compression and combustion, with intake/exhaust happening simultaneously
with those. Two-stroke engines are generally more powerful for their package
size and more thermodynamically efficient than four-stroke engines. But
conventional designs are also dirty and (more often than not) noisy.
With the INNengine e-Rex, all of the advantages of a two-stroke engine
are there, but the disadvantages are not. Making it a compelling option. It
also outputs at one or both sides without much modification, which means it can
be used to propel more than one axle easily.
The INNengine design is an opposed piston setup in which
there are four pistons on each side to make eight in all. The opposing pistons
share a combustion chamber and have fixed rods behind them. These rods press on
plates with an oscillating wave-like design so that the rods press and release
the pistons in a smooth, coordinated movement. Intake and exhaust happens as it
would with a two-stroke engine, with the exhaust port being just ahead of the
intake port so that it leaves and begins creating a vacuum just as the piston
moves past the intake port, to allow fresh air in for the next cycle. Fuel and
spark are fed as they would be with any other piston-based engine.
This opposed piston setup makes for smooth operation with
very low noise and vibration, while the packaging keeps the whole engine small.
What’s more, controlling the gap between the pistons during compression by
shifting one or the other end plate slightly allows for variable compression as
well. Improving efficiency even more.
More + GIF animation.
INNengine “one-stroke” waves away conventional engine
design (newatlas.com)
Another weekend and an inflation free
weekend for most Americans? Well, inflation free provided they don’t buy food
and drink, gasoline or pay rent. Have a great weekend everyone.
How
can anyone govern a nation that has two hundred and forty-six different kinds
of cheese?
Charles de Gaulle.
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