Baltic Dry Index. 1090 -13 Brent Crude 79.87
Spot Gold 1955 U S 2 Year Yield 4.74 +0.15
"I
would not like to be a Russian leader. They never know when they're being
taped."
President
Richard Nixon
In the stock casinos, the bubble is back. Party on, the punch bowl is back, if not quite filled to the brim.
Dow
closes 100 points higher Friday on solid earnings, registers best week since
March: Live updates
UPDATED FRI, JUL 14 2023 6:51 PM EDT
The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed
Friday as strong earnings results from some of the biggest banks and companies
kicked off earnings season.
The 30-stock Dow added 113.89
points, or 0.33%, to close at 34,509.03 and mark its fifth consecutive day of
gains. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 dropped
0.10% to close at 4,505.42. The Nasdaq Composite declined
0.18%, ending at 14,113.70. Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq touched their
highest intraday levels since April 2022.
On a weekly basis, the Dow
notched its best performance since March, up 2.3%. The S&P 500 added 2.4%,
and the Nasdaq gained 3.3%.
UnitedHealth shares
lifted the blue-chip index Friday as its top performer. The insurance giant
jumped more than 7% after it reported better-than-expected adjusted
earnings and revenue. The company also raised the lower end of its
full-year adjusted earnings guidance. UnitedHealth was also the biggest gainer
in the S&P 500′s health-care sector, which advanced 1.5%.
JPMorgan
Chase rose
0.6% after its
second-quarter earnings topped expectations. The bank was
boosted by higher interest rates and rising interest income. Wells Fargo inched
down 0.3%, even though the bank posted better-than-expected
results.
---- Expectations
for this season are downbeat, with analysts forecasting a roughly 7%
year-over-year drop in S&P 500 earnings, according to FactSet. That would
mark the worst earnings season since the second quarter of 2020, when S&P
500 profits dropped 31.6%.
Investors’ sentiment has been
lifted by soft inflation reports this week. The latest producer
price index report showed inflation rose less than anticipated
and built on trader optimism from the June consumer price index data, which
came out Wednesday. Investors are now considering whether a strong economy
illustrated by the recent data could push stocks higher by the end of the year.
“The Goldilocks scenario is alive
and well, in terms of declining inflation pressures and [there’s] still fairly
robust economic growth. So it’s a pretty good backdrop for risk assets,” said
Ladner.
Stock market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)
But back in the real world a far harsher reality.
Higher interest rates are now seriously impacting the fragile global economy. The jobs boom seems to be ending. The property boom has already faded. US commercial real estate is headed into a bust that will set off a regional and community bank disaster.
Money market funds are already siphoning off regional and community bank deposits.
In Europe, recession looms for the EU led by
Germany and the UK, led by falling property transactions and prices.
----Recession 'may be
imminent' as job vacancies fall
|
|
James Reed, chairman of Reed Recruitment, says a
rapidly falling number of vacancies is an ominous sign that confidence in the economy is
faltering. At the moment, the Bank of England predicts that the UK
will narrowly avoid a recession in 2023. But Mr Reed’s downbeat prediction
comes after he correctly disputed the Bank’s forecast that a lengthy
recession was coming last year, pointing to a large number of job ads. You
can follow the latest Business news on our live blog. |
-----The world’s biggest bond market saw a day of reversals, with Treasuries paring their weekly
rally as strong economic data reinforced the view that it may be too early for
the Federal Reserve to claim victory over inflation. At the end of a week
marked by optimism that the Fed would be closer to ending its interest-rate
hikes, a report showed consumer sentiment soared to an almost two-year
high—while short-term price expectations rose. Bonds reacted immediately. “This
doesn’t look like ‘mission accomplished’ yet,” said Don Rissmiller, one of the
founding partners of Strategas. “The most important variable for consumer
spending remains employment, which is still solid. But the tight US labor
market also is key for long-run inflation considerations.”
Nigeria, the most populous nation
in Africa, declared a state of emergency as surging food prices cause
widespread hardship. The move will trigger a range of measures, including
clearing forests for farmland to increase agricultural output and ease food
inflation. The crisis follows the government’s removal of fuel subsidies and
exchange-rate reform, which has seen the naira fall by 40% after its peg to the
dollar was removed last month.
Bloomberg
Evening Briefing: Biden Goes Around Supreme Court on Student Debt - Bloomberg
Binance
could lay off thousands as company buckles down for DOJ probe, source says
Crypto exchange Binance is
laying off employees in response to an ongoing Justice Department probe that is
likely to end with a consent decree or settlement, according to a current
employee who is familiar with the company’s plans.
The cuts will eliminate 1,500 to
3,000 of Binance’s global workforce, this person told CNBC, and will take place
through the end of the year. The Wall Street Journal previously reported on Friday that 1,000 employees
have already been laid off, and those layoffs are part of the total planned,
the source told CNBC. This person asked to remain anonymous because they are
not authorized to talk to the press about internal matters.
The Justice Department probe will likely reshape the company
fundamentally, the employee told CNBC. If Binance opts to settle the DOJ
allegations, it could result in a multi-billion dollar payment. Reuters has reported that federal prosecutors have been weighing
anti-money laundering violations and sanctions evasion charges, allegations
that would make it difficult for Binance or founder Changpeng Zhao to continue
to get licenses to operate.
A Binance spokesperson disputed that the cuts would impact 3,000
employees, saying that the high-end number was “just not right.”
---- Binance has faced significant regulatory
challenges over the last few months, culminating in lawsuits from the Securities
and Exchange Commission and the Commodity
Futures Trading Commission over alleged mishandling of customer
assets and the operation of an illegal, unregistered exchange in the U.S.
Binance founder Changpeng Zhao has
repeatedly dismissed concerns about the future of the exchange, even after
being personally named in the SEC’s lawsuit. Binance itself has suffered
significantly since the lawsuits from U.S. regulators, with exchange outflows
running into the hundreds
of millions. The company has also seen a number of key executive
departures.
Binance
could lay off thousands in response to DOJ probe: source (cnbc.com)
Finally, food price inflation and scarcity. Who knew if you fight an unnecessary proxy war on Russia in the Ukraine, at a time of droughts and floods in much of the main food producing and exporting countries, much of the poorest in the world would suffer food deprivation?
Well,
no one in Washington or London, or NATO, or if they knew they just didn’t care.
Hunger and Dumping
Milk Highlight Global Food Injustice
July 14, 2023
----In one example, there’s more milk than ever in the US but nowhere left to process it, so farmers across the Upper Midwest are being forced to pour the excess dairy down the drain.
----On the other hand, the battle to end hunger in the coming years continues, and so far we’re losing it.
The lingering
fallout from the pandemic and Russia’s war in Ukraine means about 735 million
people — almost a 10th of the global population — were undernourished in 2022,
according to United Nations agencies. It looks as if the world will fail to
meet its zero-hunger target by the end of the decade. Far too many people
simply don’t have adequate access to food.
And while there are signs inflation in more countries
is cooling, worries remain about food supplies especially
with heat waves and drought further threatening crops.
Top rice shipper India is considering banning exports of most varieties as the
disruptive El Niño weather pattern returns. Such a move could further push up
prices that are already at a two-year high. Many importers would likely turn to
Thailand and Vietnam, with the former already set to harvest only one crop this
season instead of the usual two.
There’s also continued uncertainty over the Ukraine grain
export deal, which is up for renewal in a matter of days.
Moscow has repeatedly threatened to exit the crucial accord
that has helped crop cargoes head to countries in Europe, Africa and Asia. The
UN Secretary-General said there hasn’t yet been a reply to a letter sent to
Russia outlining a proposal on the deal.
Hunger and Dumping Milk Highlight Food Injustice -
Bloomberg
UN waits for Russian answer as Black Sea grain deal deadline
looms
July
14, 2023 7:57 PM GMT+1
UNITED NATIONS, July
14 (Reuters) - United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres is still
waiting for a response from Russian President Vladimir Putin on a proposal to
extend a deal allowing the safe Black Sea export of Ukraine grain beyond
Monday, a U.N. spokesperson said on Friday.
Guterres wrote to Putin on Tuesday asking him to extend the Black Sea deal in return for connecting a subsidiary of Russia's Agricultural Bank (Rosselkhozbank) to the international payment system SWIFT, sources told Reuters.
The last ship
traveling under the Black Sea deal is loading its cargo at Ukraine's Odesa
port. Russia has not agreed to register any new ships since June 27 and the
initiative will expire on Monday if Moscow does not agree to extend it.
Russia has threatened to quit the deal - brokered by the U.N. and Turkey in July 2022 - because Moscow has said its demands to improve its own grain and fertilizer exports have not been met. Ukraine and Russia are among the world's top grain exporters.
More than 32 million metric tons of corn, wheat and other grains have been exported by Ukraine under the arrangement. Russia has complained that not enough has reached poor countries, but the U.N. has argued that it has benefited those states by helping lower food prices more than 20% globally.
"Discussions are being
had, WhatsApp messages are being sent, Signal messages are being sent and
exchanged. We're also waiting for a response to the letter," U.N.
spokesman Stephane Dujarric told reporters when asked about negotiations.
---- To convince Russia
to agree to the Black Sea deal, a three-year memorandum of understanding was
struck in July 2022 under which U.N. officials agreed to help Russia get its
food and fertilizer exports to foreign markets.
While Russian exports of food and fertilizer are not subject to Western sanctions imposed after the invasion of Ukraine, Moscow has said restrictions on payments, logistics and insurance have amounted to a barrier to shipments.
A key demand by Russia is
the reconnection of Rosselkhozbank to SWIFT. It was cut off by the EU in June
2022 over Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The EU is considering
connecting a Rosselkhozbank subsidiary to SWIFT to allow for grain and
fertilizer transactions, sources familiar with discussions said on Wednesday.
UN
waits for Russian answer as Black Sea grain deal deadline looms | Reuters
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its
own.
"Sure,
there are dishonest men in local government. But there are dishonest men in national
government too."
President
Richard Nixon.
Has the global trade recession already
started?
Economic forces put risk appetite of investors towards emerging
economies in jeopardy
July
14, 2023
As
economists fret about whether we face a big or a small global recession, and
whether we’ll face it sooner or later, it is worth bearing in mind that trade
is already showing signs of deep stress. Risk appetite towards emerging
economies might be shaken as a result.
The
annual growth rate of global import volumes turned negative late last year,
remained negative in early 2023, according to Citi data, and there are few
reasons to think that things will improve. As long as that’s true, it will be
open, trade-dependent economies — especially in the developing world — that are
hit hardest.
There
are three main reasons why trade growth seems so muted these days. The first is
that we’re simply suffering a trade hangover after a Covid-era surge. That
surge can be largely pinned on the different economic policy responses adopted
in the pandemic.
While
the US and other liberal governments were bent on using fiscal transfers to
shore up citizens’ purchasing power, China’s approach was more characterised by
getting workers back into factories. In other words, China aimed to boost
supply while its trading partners boosted demand. The result was an
acceleration in trade growth, the likes of which we hadn’t seen since the
economic recovery that followed the 2008 financial crisis.
A second reason for the trade slump is the
evident switch in expenditure, especially in advanced economies, from goods to
services. There are only so many new TVs and computers one can buy in a short
space of time, and services are less traded.
Third,
trade growth is being undermined by the nature of China’s economic recovery.
Since this is an essentially “stimulus-free” recovery so far, a big part of the
spending increase in China today is on services, rather than on
officially-funded investment spending that tends to generate a much bigger
import bill.
And
since confidence is so weak in China, what is called “consumption downgrading”
— or more prosaically, bargain-hunting — is a widespread phenomenon among
Chinese households. Without a “big bazooka” stimulus from Beijing, this is
unlikely to change.
Why
won’t things get better? A couple of factors are worth mentioning. The first is
the deteriorating outlook for global demand. Global economic growth this year
looks as if it will come in at about 2.3 per cent, and next year will almost
certainly be weaker than this, not least because big central banks are, in
effect, aiming to induce slowdowns to regain control over inflation.
A
slowdown in growth will certainly create a more hostile environment for trade,
and it is worth pointing out just how bad is the global demand environment that
we’re entering. The last time the world saw two consecutive years of sub-2.5
per cent growth was in the wake of the financial crisis.
Another
reason why it’s not easy to be optimistic about trade is simply that we’re in a
world that is clearly beyond “peak globalisation”, a fact that has been putting
downward pressure on global trade growth for more than a decade now. In the
early 1980s, world exports were equivalent to 15 per cent of global gross
domestic product, according to IMF data. Globalisation took that ratio to 25
per cent just around the time of the 2008 crisis, after which a steady decline
set in, bringing it down to 20 per cent in 2020.
More
Has the global
trade recession already started? | Financial Times (ft.com)
Below,
why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be
quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity
Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.
The
“New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking
https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf
Mines,
Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check
https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check
"An
Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As
The Industry Races To Recycle
by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM
Covid-19
Corner
This
section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
More
vaccine adverse-reaction bad news from Australia. Approx. 15 minutes.
Bad
Australian vaccine data
Bad
Australian vaccine data - YouTube
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Approx. 13 minutes. Good, but the
ending left out the work done in wartime UK before being moved to Canada due to
the threat of German bombing, before, after the USA joined in the war late as
usual, transferring to the USA becoming the Manhattan Project.
The
Most Dangerous Rock in the World
The Most Dangerous Rock in the World - YouTube
Tube Alloys
Tube Alloys was the research and
development programme
authorised by the United Kingdom, with participation from Canada, to
develop nuclear weapons during
the Second World War. Starting before the Manhattan Project in the United States, the British efforts were
kept classified, and as such had to be referred to by code even within
the highest circles of government.
The possibility of nuclear
weapons was acknowledged early in the war. At the University of
Birmingham, Rudolf Peierls and Otto Robert Frisch co-wrote a memorandum explaining that a small mass of pure uranium-235 could
be used to produce a chain reaction in a bomb with the power of thousands of
tons of TNT. This led to the formation of the MAUD Committee,
which called for an all-out effort to develop nuclear weapons. Wallace Akers,
who oversaw the project, chose the deliberately misleading code name "Tube
Alloys". His Tube Alloys Directorate was part of the Department of Scientific and Industrial Research.
The Tube Alloys programme in
Britain and Canada was the first nuclear weapons project. Due to the high
costs, and the fact that Britain was fighting a war within bombing range of its
enemies, Tube Alloys was ultimately subsumed into the Manhattan Project by
the Quebec Agreement with the United States, under which the two nations agreed to
share nuclear weapons technology, and to refrain from using it against each
other, or against other countries without mutual consent, although the United
States did not provide complete details of the results of the Manhattan Project
to the United Kingdom. The Soviet Union gained valuable information through its atomic spies,
who had infiltrated both the British and American projects.
More
This weekend’s music
diversion. Lully’s 1684 re-worked 1678 opening
to the ancient Te Deum. Te Deum laudamus, ‘We praise Thee, O God’. Approx. 3 minutes.
Lully:
Te Deum Motet à deux choeurs
Lully:
Te Deum Motet à deux choeurs - YouTube
This weekend’s chess update. Approx.
10 minutes.
9/9 -
The Mad Man DID IT!
9/9 -
The Mad Man DID IT! - YouTube
No weekend maths update this week.
This week more on the real China. Approx. 17 minutes.
China
is planting Fields of Stones stuck to Metal Bars - No, Really
China is planting Fields of Stones stuck to Metal Bars
- No, Really - YouTube
"I
was under medication when I made the decision to burn the tapes.'
President
Richard Nixon.
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