Baltic Dry Index. 1088 +56 Brent Crude 80.45
Spot Gold 1963 US 2 Year Yield 4.72 -0.16
There can be few fields of human endeavour in which history
counts for so little as in the world of finance. Past experience, to the extent
that it is part of memory at all, is dismissed as the primitive refuge of those
who do not have the insight to appreciate the incredible wonders of the
present.
John Kenneth Galbraith.
As the global economy heads off towards our arriving recession, has the Great 2021-2023 Inflation finally ended?
Well, it hasn’t ended in food price inflation and in wage price inflation it just seems to be starting, but in the USA official figures, consumer price inflation is almost back to “normal.”
In the stock casinos, the punch bowl is back and filled to the brim.
Look away from that wildly inverting US yield
curve now!
Hong Kong stocks surge over 2% after U.S.
inflation slows more than expected; Asia markets rise
UPDATED WED, JUL 12 2023 10:01 PM
EDT
Asia-Pacific markets rose across the board
Thursday after the U.S. inflation rate for June came in lower
than expected at 3%, the smallest year-over-year increase in
two years.
The figure was lower than the
3.1% expected by economists polled by Dow Jones.
Month over month, the inflation
rate rose 0.2%, less than forecast. Core CPI — which strips out volatile food
and energy prices — also rose less than expected.
In Asia, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index popped
2.15% at the open and led gains in the region, while the Hang Seng Tech index
surged over 3%.
Mainland Chinese markets were
also all up, with the Shanghai
Composite gained 0.66% and the Shenzhen Component seeing
a larger gain of 1.07%. Investors will be closely watching China’s June trade
data, which is due later today.
South Korea’s Kospi rose 0.95%
and the Kosdaq saw a 1.54% gain as the Bank of Korea held its key policy rate
unchanged at 3.5%, in line with expectations.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was
up 1.35%, while in Japan, the Nikkei 225 climbed
1.24% in early trade and the Topix was 0.91% higher.
Overnight in the U.S., all three major indexes climbed, with the S&P 500 climbing 0.74% to hit a new high for 2023
and the Nasdaq Composite seeing a 1.15% gain. Both indexes closed at
their highest levels since April 2022. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.25%.
South
Korea holds rates at 3.5%, in line with expectations
South Korea’s
central bank held its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.5%, the fourth straight meeting
the Bank of Korea has done so after last hiking rates in January.
The bank wrote that
although the country’s inflation rate continues to slow down, it is expected to
rise above the BOK’s target level of 2% “for a considerable period of time.”
The BOK also
forecasts that inflation will rise to around 3% after August, and added the
need for an additional hike will be judged “while assessing the changes in
domestic and external policy conditions.”
South Korea’s
inflation rate came in at 2.7% for June, and is at its lowest level since
September 2021.
Inflation drops to
lowest levels since March 2021 as economy cools
July 12, 2023
A year after inflation soared
to the highest level in four decades, price increases are returning closer to
normal levels, with families and businesses feeling the difference as wages
rise faster than prices and policymakers debate how much more to slow the
economy.
Government
data released Wednesday showed a notable drop in inflation: Prices rose 3
percent in June compared with the year before, and 0.2 percent compared with
May, the smallest 12-month increase since March 2021. That marked progress from
the last inflation report, when prices rose 4
percent compared with the previous year.
There is a ways to go,
especially on major categories such as rent. But encouraging signs were
scattered throughout the Bureau of Labor Statistics report. Goods prices, from
used cars to meats, saw declines compared with the month before. Categories
that bulged over the past year, such as airfares and hotels, are also cooling
off as demand settles back to normal.
Meanwhile,
wages have grown faster than inflation for four straight months. Average hourly
earnings rose 0.4 percent from May to June, outpacing inflation by 0.2 percent,
according to a separate BLS report released
Wednesday.
“This is the kind of mix you want to see, and want to see
more of over the next few months. If it does, the pathway to 2 percent
[inflation] for the Fed really does open up,” said Skanda Amarnath, executive
director of Employ America, a liberal think tank pushing for the economy to run
hot.
Wall Street rallied on the news. The S&P 500 index and
tech-focused Nasdaq both ended Wednesday at their highest levels in more than a
year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was also up.
Housing costs were the main driver of inflation, as they have
been for months. Rising rents and other shelter costs accounted for more than
70 percent of the June increase. Rent is up 8.3 percent compared with last
year, and 0.5 percent compared with May. There are signs that rents on new leases are
falling from pandemic highs, but it will be months before that shows up in the
consumer price index, which lags behind real-time indicators.
----The latest data reflects a drastically different economic
picture than in June 2022, when
inflation spiked to 9.1 percent just months after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
sent energy prices soaring. This June’s inflation figure dropped so much partly
because the yearly data compares against last year’s peak. The energy index,
for example, which drove inflation for much of last summer, is now down 16.7
percent for the 12 months ending in June.
Despite slowing
inflation, Americans turn to ‘buy now, pay later’ apps to buy groceries
Car
insurance (1.7 percent), driven by high auto values and costs of repairs, and
apparel (0.3 percent) rose compared with May’s prices. But there were a few
bright spots: Airfares (8.1 percent), used cars and trucks (0.5 percent), and
household furnishings and operations (0.1 percent) decreased in price compared
with May.
Inflation
drops to lowest levels since March 2021 as economy cools (msn.com)
But in the real economy, things are far from
rosey. As goes China, so goes the world?
Waiting for ‘Buyers to Come’: Unsold Electric Vehicles Piling Up in Car Dealerships, Says Report
July 10, 2023 Updated: July 12, 2023
The number of unsold electric vehicles at dealers in the second quarter
tripled compared to the past year, signaling a weakened demand for the segment,
said a recent report by leading auto-dealer data company Cox Automotive.
In second quarter 2023, the average inventory for electric vehicles
(EVs) topped more than 92,000 units on the ground at dealer lots, according to
the 2023 Cox Automotive Mid-Year Review presentation. This is up 342 percent
compared to second quarter 2022. During this period, the new “EV days’ supply,”
which refers to the average number of days a warehouse holds inventory before
selling it, rose 166 percent, to 92 days from 38.5 days. While the pace of EV
sales is up, it is “not rising as fast as inventory builds,” said Jonathan
Gregory, senior manager, Economic and Industry Insights.
Original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) are facing a “field of dreams
moment,” he stated. “They have built inventory, and now they wait for buyers to
come. This is one of the hottest topics we’ve had this year.”
Brands like Jaguar, Infiniti, and Lincoln had the highest days of
supply, at over 100 days. The lowest numbers were seen among Toyota, Honda,
Kia, and Lexus, with each brand having less than 30 days of supply.
Tesla continued to dominate the luxury EV segment with a market share of
25.5 percent, followed by Mercedes at 12.5 percent, BMW at 12.2 percent, and
Lexus at 11 percent. Among EVs priced above $50,000, Ford held the biggest
share at 22.1 percent, followed by Chevrolet at 12.1 percent.
Unlike other parts of the world, U.S. citizens remain on the sidelines
when considering an EV purchase.
According to an April 2023 report by consumer intelligence company JD
Power, more Americans are unwilling to buy EVs. In March, 21 percent of new
vehicle shoppers said they were “very unlikely” to consider an EV, up from 17.8
percent in January.
During this period, the proportion of people who said they were “very
likely” to buy an EV remained flat at around 26 percent.
More
China’s June trade data badly misses
expectations
China’s exports
contracted in June at the fastest pace since the start of the Covid-19
pandemic, as high inflation in key developed markets and geopolitics hit global
demand.
Thursday’s trade data
release is yet another fresh indication that China’s leaders will not be able
to count on external factors in reviving the faltering growth momentum. The
decline in June imports was also more severe than expectations, suggesting
local demand is also waning.
The dollar value of
China’s exports plunged 12.4% in June from a year ago, customs data showed
Thursday. This is a far bigger drop than expectations for a 9.5% decline in a
Reuters poll and the 7.5% annual decline in May. The percentage decline was the
biggest that the world’s second-largest economy has recorded since February
2020.
Imports declined
6.8%, in June from a year ago, also worse than expectations for a 4% decline
and the 4.5% annual decline in May.
China’s trade still
faces rather great pressure in the second half of the year, partly due to high
inflation in developed countries and geopolitics, Lu Daliang, a spokesperson
for China’s customs bureau, said at a press conference Thursday.
China's
June trade data badly misses expectations (cnbc.com)
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Rising interest rates
and spiralling debt payments to kill off UK's zombie firms, top insolvency
expert predicts
July 11, 2023
Britain's army
of 'zombie' firms looks set to be wiped out by rising interest rates, a leading
insolvency expert has predicted.
The boss of
Begbies Traynor said the debt-riddled firms will not survive as rates rise to
bring inflation back under control – bringing the zombie epidemic to an end.
Until now,
these companies have only been kept alive thanks to years of cheap borrowing
costs.
But with interest
rates now at 5 per cent – up from 0.1 per cent less than two years ago – and
set to rise further, their future looks bleak.
'Over the next
18 months, we'll see virtually all of them finally come to an end,' Begbies
Traynor executive chairman Ric Traynor told Bloomberg.
'We've seen an increase in activity for smaller companies
over the last year because they tend to be the first ones that are hit when
there's a problem.
'We're now
moving into mid-market companies.'
The comments
came as Begbies Traynor reported an 11 per cent rise in annual revenues to
£121.8million as insolvency cases increased.
With profits
up 50 per cent to £6million, it increased its dividend for a sixth year in a
row.
Russ Mould,
investment director at the stockbroker AJ Bell, said: 'Begbies Traynor tends to
thrive when economic conditions are gloomy.
Many companies
have reached a tipping point where they cannot generate enough cash to service
borrowings and have no choice but to fold.'
Covid-19 Corner
This
section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Study
finds deer spread COVID-19 back to humans
JULY 12, 2023 / 1:22 AM
July 12 (UPI) -- A new study has found cases of COVID-19 spreading from deer to humans, and back,
multiple times.
The study, published Monday in the scientific journal
Nature, revealed samples taken from deer showed mutated variants of COVID-19
spreading to humans, after humans spread the virus to deer.
Of
the 8,830 respiratory samples taken from free-ranging white-tailed deer in 26
states and Washington, D.C., between November 2021 and April 2022, researchers
found 282 deer were infected with COVID-19.
The
scientists, including some from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
and the Department of Agriculture, found that in at least 109 cases humans had
spread the virus to the deer.
Additionally,
there were at least 39 cases of deer-to-deer transmission and, more notably,
three cases of deer-to-human transmission.
While
researchers were able to track down the three people infected with COVID-19,
none had reported being near deer prior to getting infected.
White-tailed
deer are common in urban and rural areas throughout the country with an
estimated population of 30 million, according to the study, which concluded
that frequent introductions of new human viruses into white-tailed deer
continue to occur.
While
COVID-19 variants Alpha, Gamma and Delta were no longer circulating among
humans as late as February, the variants continued to
spread in white-tailed deer.
Researchers
say other viruses can continue to persist in the deer population even after the
variants have become rare in humans and are now calling for large-scale
surveillance of white-tailed deer to determine whether the animal could be a
potential reservoir for COVID-19 and how the mammal may have played a role in
the ecology of the virus.
In separate
research released Monday,
scientists announced an new all-species test to detect the COVID-19 virus in
any animal.
SARS-CoV-2,
the virus that causes COVID-19, has been detected in cats, dogs, rodents, deer
and apes, among others, and can mutate leading to new variants.
The
new test, supported by research and the U.S. National Institutes of Health,
could help scientists keep track of animal populations and prevent future viral
outbreaks.
Study finds deer spread COVID-19 back to humans -
UPI.com
Paper on Post-Vax Autopsies
Swiftly Removed After Attracting ‘Special Attention’: Dr. Peter McCullough
July 10, 2023 Updated: July
11, 2023
A Lancet review of autopsy data of over 300
post-COVID-19 vaccination deaths would challenge the mainstream narrative on
the safety of the shots, but was removed within 24 hours of the initial
submission, said cardiologist Dr. Peter McCullough, the paper’s leading author
and prominent COVID vaccine skeptic.
“The government narrative is still that people do not
die after COVID-19 vaccination. Now we have the largest series of autopsies,
and the autopsies really are incontrovertible,” Dr. McCullough said in an
interview on EpochTV’s “American Thought Leaders: NOW” program.
The paper, a pre-print that had yet to undergo any part of the
peer-review process, was uploaded to Lancet’s website on July 6. According to
Dr. McCullough, the reason he and other co-authors went for a pre-print is that
they wanted to get their findings out as quickly as possible.
----“Obviously, we struck a very important gap in knowledge
and the world needed to know the results,” the doctor added.
Less than 24 hours later, however, it was taken down
with a note implying that the study violated the medical journal’s “screening
criteria.”
“This pre-print has been removed … because the
study’s conclusions are not supported by the study methodology,” Lancet’s note
read.
The paper is written by Dr. McCullough, Yale
epidemiologist Dr. Harvey Risch and their colleagues at the Wellness
Company, a Florida-based medical group they said had zero involvement in
the paper.
Study Findings
For the study, the researchers looked at 678 papers
and narrowed down 44 that contained 325 autopsy cases. They then performed what
is called a “blind adjudication” by having three physicians independently
review all deaths and determine whether COVID-19 vaccination caused or
contributed significantly to them.
“We use the standard called PRISMA, where we searched
for every paper possible. We sorted through hundreds and hundreds of
manuscripts because deaths can be reported as different clinical syndromes are
coming out after the vaccine,” Dr. McCullough said, noting that they took out
cases that obviously had nothing to do with vaccination.
“There were deaths where there was an auto accident
or a suicide. There were some cases in nursing homes where people are on
hospice and it looked like they were in their last days of life. We just
couldn’t attribute it to the vaccine,” he explained. “But the striking cases
were people who were perfectly healthy, who had no other medical problems. The
only new thing in their life was a vaccine, and then they died with an obvious
syndrome like a blood clot, or heart damage, or myocarditis.”
“This is important because when these papers were
originally published, the authors didn’t know the full breadth of safety
profiles of the vaccine,” the doctor continued. “Initially there were some
autopsies from Germany [where] people died of blood clots shooting to lungs.
The authors concluded that it wasn’t vaccine because at that time they didn’t
know the vaccine causes blood clots, but we do now.”
More
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Record-breaking sugar
battery could supercharge transition to renewable energy
July 11, 2023
Scientists
have used sugar to create a record-breaking battery capable
of storing grid-scale energy for more than a year.
The
breakthrough could help speed up the transition to renewable
energy sources, which require vast amounts of battery storage in order
to avoid relying on fossil fuels to meet demand when solar or wind output is low.
A team
from the US Department of Energy’s Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL)
made the latest discovery while researching flow batteries,
which use two liquid-filled chambers to produce an electrochemical reaction to
store and release energy.
Flow
batteries have the potential to be scaled up to the size of football fields,
capable of storing vast amounts of energy, however current methods for creating
them rely on mined minerals that are difficult and costly to obtain.
“This
is a brand new approach to developing flow battery electrolyte,” said Wei Wang,
a battery researcher who led the investigation into the new method. “We showed
that you can use a totally different type of catalyst designed to accelerate
energy conversion.”
The
researchers used a dissolved simple sugar called β-cyclodextrin, which is a
derivative of starch, in order to boost their flow battery’s longevity and
capacity.
The system achieved 60
per cent more peak power than current methods, while also being capable of
storing and releasing energy for more than a year continuously.
The latest
advance makes the next-generation battery design “a candidate for scale up”,
according to the researchers.
“We cannot
always dig the Earth for new materials,” said Imre Gyuk, director of energy
storage research at DOE’s Office of Electricity.
“We need to
develop a sustainable approach with chemicals that we can sythesize in large
amounts – just like the pharmaceutical and the food industries.”
A study
detailing the research, titled ‘Proton-regulated alcohol oxidation for
high-capacity ketone-based flow battery anolyte’, was published in the
scientific journal Joule.
Record-breaking sugar battery could supercharge
transition to renewable energy (msn.com)
In any
great organization it is far, far safer to be wrong with the majority than to
be right alone.
John Kenneth
Galbraith.
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