Baltic Dry Index. 1298 +40 Brent Crude 83.34
Spot Gold 1813 US 2 Year Yield 5.00 +0.11
Coronavirus
Cases 01/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,103
Coronavirus Cases 08/03/23 World 680,893,434
Deaths 6,806,854
Some
initial U.S. and European speculation centered on possible Russian culpability,
especially given its prowess in undersea operations, though it is unclear what
motivation the Kremlin would have in sabotaging the pipelines given that they
have been an important source of revenue and a means for Moscow to exert
influence over Europe. One estimate put the cost of repairing the pipelines
starting at about $500
million. U.S. officials say they have not found any evidence of
involvement by the Russian government in the attack.
Officials who have reviewed the intelligence said they believed
the saboteurs were most likely Ukrainian or Russian nationals, or some
combination of the two. U.S. officials said no American or British nationals
were involved.
In the stock casinos, Fed Chairman Powell hammered them. Who knew that the US central bank might get serious over fighting inflation in 2023 because in US presidential election year 2024, the US central bank is supposed to remain neutral, aka supporting the incumbent by easing up on tightening.
Look away from that inverted and still inverting US Treasury yield curve now!
In other news, the far left NY Times laughably
spins for the deep state. Who are you going to believe, the NY Time citing
unknown intelligence or Seymour Hersh?
Fed Chair Powell
says interest rates are ‘likely to be higher’ than previously anticipated
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on
Tuesday cautioned that interest rates are likely to head higher than central
bank policymakers had expected.
Citing data earlier this year
showing that inflation
has reversed the deceleration it showed in late 2022, the
central bank leader warned of tighter monetary policy ahead to slow a growing
economy.
“The latest economic data have come
in stronger than expected, which suggests that the ultimate level of interest
rates is likely to be higher than previously anticipated,” Powell
said in remarks prepared for two appearances this week on
Capitol Hill. “If the totality of the data were to indicate that faster
tightening is warranted, we would be prepared to increase the pace of rate
hikes.”
Those remarks carry two implications: One, that
the peak, or terminal, level of the federal funds rate is likely to be higher
than the previous indication from the Fed officials, and, two, that the switch
last month to a smaller quarter-percentage
point increase could be short-lived if inflation data continues
to run hot.
In their December estimate,
officials pegged the terminal rate at 5.1%. Current market pricing moved higher
following Powell’s remarks, to a range of 5.5%-5.75%, according to CME Group
data. Powell did not specify how high he thinks rates ultimately will go.
The speech comes with markets
generally optimistic that the central bank can tame inflation without running
the economy into a ditch.
Stocks
fell sharply while Treasury yields jumped after Powell’s
remarks were released. Market pricing also titled sharply to a strong
possibility of a 0.5 percentage point interest rate hike when the Federal Open
Market Committee meetings March 21-22.
January data shows that inflation as gauged by personal
consumption expenditures prices — the preferred metric for
policymakers — was still running at a 5.4% pace annually. That’s well above the
Fed’s 2% long-run target and a shade past the December level.
Powell said the current trend shows
that the Fed’s inflation-fighting job is not over, though he noted that some of
the hot January inflation data could be the product of unseasonably warm
weather.
More
European markets
set to open lower after Powell’s comments
UPDATED
WED, MAR 8 2023 12:22 AM EST
European markets are
heading for a lower open Wednesday as investors react to the latest comments
from the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Chairman Jerome Powell indicating interest
rates may need to go higher for longer.
Powell spoke before
the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee on Tuesday and
cautioned lawmakers that the central bank’s terminal rate will likely be higher
than previously anticipated because of stubbornly high economic data in recent
weeks. Major stock indexes fell following Powell’s
comments.
On Wednesday, investors will be
closely watching Powell speak before the House Financial Services Committee. U.S.
stock futures were mixed on Wednesday’s morning, while in
Asia-Pacific markets, Hong Kong shares dropped more than 2%.
European
markets set to open lower after Powell's comments (cnbc.com)
Stock futures are
mixed Wednesday morning following a selloff fueled by Powell’s comments: Live
updates
UPDATED
TUE, MAR 7 2023 11:57 PM EST
U.S. stock futures were mixed on Wednesday’s
morning. The action comes after a selloff spurred by Federal Reserve Chairman
Jerome Powell’s comments indicating interest rates may need to go higher for
longer.
Dow Jones Industrial Average
futures ticked higher by 25 points, or nearly 0.1%. S&P 500 futures rose
marginally and Nasdaq 100 futures slipped by 0.04%.
In regular trading Tuesday, the Dow closed
nearly 575 points lower and turned negative for 2023. The S&P 500 slid
1.53% to close below the key 4,000 threshold, and the Nasdaq Composite lost
1.25%. The sharp decline for stocks was accompanied by a spike in bond yields,
with the rate on the 2-year Treasury surpassing 5% and touching the highest
level since 2007.
The shakeup in markets came after
Fed Chair Powell spoke before
the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee. He cautioned lawmakers
that the central bank’s terminal rate will likely be higher than previously
anticipated due to stubbornly high economic data in recent weeks.
″[Powell] is being very, very
clear that if you look at what happened over the past year and a half, the call
on inflation didn’t pan out,” Morgan Stanley’s global chief economist Seth
Carpenter said on CNBC’s “Closing
Bell: Overtime.”
“I think now Powell is very much
on board with the idea that he does not want to get caught flat-footed again,
and so opening the door very wide for a 50 basis point hike was exactly what he
did,” Carpenter added.
On Wednesday, investors will be closely watching Powell speak
before the House Financial Services Committee. Separately, Richmond Fed
President Tom Barkin will also be speaking on the labor market Wednesday
morning. January’s job openings and labor turnover data is due, as is the ADP
jobs report for February.
Stock
market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)
Finally, as a US debt default inches closer,
it’s still about three months away, the Democrat supporting NY Times spins for
President Biden and yet more Magic Money Tree fiat money inflation. Deficits
don’t matter until one day out of the blue they suddenly do.
Debt Default Would Cripple U.S. Economy, New Analysis Warns
As President Biden prepares to release his latest budget proposal,
a top economist warned lawmakers that Republicans’ refusal to raise the
nation’s borrowing cap could put millions out of work.
March 7, 2023
WASHINGTON — The U.S. economy
could quickly shed a million jobs and fall into recession if lawmakers fail to
raise the nation’s borrowing limit before
the federal government exhausts its ability to
pay its bills on time, the chief economist of Moody’s
Analytics, Mark Zandi, warned a Senate panel on Tuesday.
The damage
could spiral to seven million jobs lost and a 2008-style financial crisis in
the event of a prolonged breach of the debt limit, in which House Republicans
refuse for months to join Democrats in voting to raise the cap, Mr. Zandi and
his colleagues Cristian deRitis and Bernard Yaros wrote in an analysis prepared
for the Senate Banking Committee’s Subcommittee on Economic Policy.
Senator
Elizabeth Warren, Democrat of Massachusetts, held the subcommittee hearing on
the debt limit, and its economic and financial consequences, at a moment of
fiscal brinkmanship. House Republicans are demanding deep spending cuts from
President Biden in exchange for voting to raise the debt limit, which
caps how much money the government can borrow.
That debate is likely to escalate
when Mr. Biden releases his latest budget proposal on Thursday. The president
is expected to propose reducing America’s reliance on borrowed money by raising
taxes on high earners and corporations. But he almost certainly will not match
the level of spending cuts that will satisfy Republican demands to balance the budget in a decade.
The report also warns of stark economic
damage if Mr. Biden, in an attempt to avert a default, agrees to those demands.
In that scenario, the “dramatic” spending cuts that would be needed to balance the budget would push the economy into recession in
2024, cost the economy 2.6 million jobs and effectively destroy a year’s worth
of economic growth over the next decade, Mr. Zandi and his colleagues wrote.
More
Debt
Default Would Cripple U.S. Economy, New Analysis Warns - The New York Times
(nytimes.com)
Intelligence Suggests Pro-Ukrainian Group Sabotaged Pipelines, U.S. Officials Say
New intelligence reporting amounts to the first significant known lead about who was responsible for the attack on the Nord Stream pipelines that carried natural gas from Russia to Europe.
Published March 7, 2023Updated March 8, 2023, 12:31 a.m. ET
WASHINGTON — New intelligence reviewed by U.S. officials suggests that a pro-Ukrainian group carried out the attack on the Nord Stream pipelines last year, a step toward determining responsibility for an act of sabotage that has confounded investigators on both sides of the Atlantic for months.
U.S. officials said that they had no evidence President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine or his top lieutenants were involved in the operation, or that the perpetrators were acting at the direction of any Ukrainian government officials.
The brazen attack on the natural gas pipelines, which link Russia to Western Europe, fueled public speculation about who was to blame, from Moscow to Kyiv and London to Washington, and it has remained one of the most consequential unsolved mysteries of Russia’s year-old war in Ukraine.
Ukraine and its allies have been seen by some officials as having the most logical potential motive to attack the pipelines. They have opposed the project for years, calling it a national security threat because it would allow Russia to sell gas more easily to Europe.
Ukrainian government and military intelligence officials say they had no role in the attack and do not know who carried it out. After this article was published, Mykhailo Podolyak, a senior adviser to Mr. Zelensky, posted on Twitter that Ukraine “has nothing to do with the Baltic Sea mishap.” He added that he had no information about pro-Ukrainian “sabotage groups.”
U.S. officials said there was much they did not know about the perpetrators and their affiliations. The review of newly collected intelligence suggests they were opponents of President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, but does not specify the members of the group, or who directed or paid for the operation.
U.S. officials declined to disclose the nature of the intelligence, how it was obtained or any details of the strength of the evidence it contains. They have said that there are no firm conclusions about it, leaving open the possibility that the operation might have been conducted off the books by a proxy force with connections to the Ukrainian government or its security services.
More
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Recession fears ease
as construction, car sales and retail drive UK business recovery
6 March, 2023
British
business is showing fresh signs of life with bosses hoping that ‘the worst of
the economy’s storms have passed’.
In a boost for
the Chancellor ahead of next week’s Budget, the construction industry clocked
up its fastest rate of growth for nine months, and sales of new cars rose for a
seventh month in row.
A third report
showed retail sales holding up strongly.
The triple
dose of good news will ease fears that the UK is heading for a prolonged
recession as soaring prices and rising interest rates take their toll.
But concerns
are mounting over Jeremy Hunt’s proposal to raise corporation tax from 19 per
cent to 25 per cent next month while also bringing a generous tax break on
investment to an end.
Entrepreneur
Sir James Dyson has written to Hunt to voice his concerns about the two ‘tax
grabs’.
He wrote: ‘The
Government has done nothing but pile tax upon tax on to British companies.’ The
warning came as S&P Global said its index of activity in the construction
sector jumped from 48.4 in January to 54.6 in February.
That was the
highest level since May last year and back above the 50 mark that separates
growth and decline.
Tim Moore,
economics director at S&P Global, said that while housebuilding remained
weak the commercial property sector bounced back.
‘Some firms
noted that fading recession fears and an improving global economic outlook had
boosted client confidence in the commercial segment,’ he said.
Max Jones, a
director in Lloyds Bank’s infrastructure and construction team, said: ‘A return
to growth will be welcomed by contractors, who are hoping the worst of the
economy’s storms have passed.’
A separate
report by the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders showed 74,441 new cars
were registered last month – up 26.2 per cent on February 2022 and the seventh
month of growth in a row.
Its chief
executive, Mike Hawes, said: ‘After seven months of growth, it is no surprise
that the UK automotive sector is facing the future with growing confidence.
‘It is vital,
however, that Government takes every opportunity to back the market, which
plays a significant role in Britain’s economy and net zero ambition.
‘The upcoming
Budget must deliver measures that drive this transition, increasing
affordability and ease of charging for all.’
And a report
by the British Retail Consortium showed that retail sales rose by 5.2 per
cent last month as consumers splashed out despite the rising cost of living.
Recession fears
ease as construction, car sales and retail drive UK business recovery (msn.com)
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
New WHO Chief Scientist Made
Crucial Change to Paper Claiming COVID-19 Didn’t Come From Lab
March 6, 2023 Updated: March
6, 2023
The World Health Organization’s new chief scientist made a
crucial change to an influential 2020 paper that claimed it was “improbable”
that COVID-19 came from a laboratory, a newly disclosed email shows.
Jeremy Farrar, the chief scientist, was credited in one
message with helping guide the paper about the origin of COVID-19,
according to one email released by the U.S. House Select
Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Pandemic on March 5.
“Thanks for shepherding this paper. Rumors of bioweaponeering
are now circulating in China,” Dr. Ian Lipkin, a Columbia University professor,
wrote to Farrar in the message.
“Yes I know and in US – why so keen to get out ASAP. I
will push nature,” Farrar responded.
In the early 2020 paper, Lipkin and four co-authors
claimed: “It is improbable that SARS-CoV-2 emerged through laboratory
manipulation of a related SARS-CoV-like coronavirus.”
SARS-CoV-2 is a name for the virus that causes COVID-19.
A draft of the manuscript, published by Nature, included a
different word, the House panel found.
“Sorry to micro-manage/microedit! But would you be willing
to change one sentence?” Farrar wrote to Kristian Andersen, who co-authored the
paper, in an email just one day before publication.
Farrar asked to insert “improbable” in place of
“unlikely,” the email showed.
“Sure,” Andersen responded.
The paper also stated that “SARS-CoV-2 is not a laboratory
construct” and that “we do not believe that any type of laboratory-based
scenario is plausible.”
“This evidence suggests that Dr. Farrar was more involved in the drafting and publication of Proximal Origin than previously known and possibly should have been credited or acknowledged for this involvement,” the panel said.
Asked
for a comment from Farrar, the World Health Organization (WHO) told The Epoch
Times via email he has not yet started in his new position.
The
British scientist was, at the time of the messages, at the helm of the Wellcome
Trust, which controls millions of dollars in funding for research in the UK.
The
WHO announced on Dec. 13, 2022, that Farrar would be the next new chief
scientist and that he would start in the second quarter of 2023. Wellcome,
which did not respond to a request for comment, has stated that Farrar was due
to leave in 2023.
Farrar helped arrange a secret Feb. 1, 2020,
teleconference with
Dr. Anthony Fauci, head of the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and
Infectious Diseases, to discuss the origin of COVID-19, previously released
emails show.
Some of the participants said details of SARS-CoV-2 indicated it did not originate from
nature, though others favored the natural origin theory.
Anderson was among the former, writing that “some of the
features (potentially) look engineered.”
The call came after
a report outlining
the possibility that the virus escaped or was released from a high-level
laboratory in Wuhan, China, where the first COVID-19 cases were detected in
2019.
Scientists on the call later penned the Proximal Origins
paper and a letter published in The Lancet that
said, “We stand together to strongly condemn conspiracy theories suggesting
that COVID-19 does not have a natural origin.”
More
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Centers for Disease Control
Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The
Spectator Covid-19
data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Zendure Showcases Its
Portable, Solar Power Solutions at Intersolar Middle East Energy
Tue,
March 7, 2023 at 4:30 AM GMT
DUBAI, UAE, March 6, 2023 /PRNewswire/
-- Zendure, one
of the fastest-growing clean energy tech startups, reveals its latest portable,
solar power solution SuperBase V at Intersolar Middle East
Energy(Dubai) from March 7-9, 2023.
Zendure SuperBase V, is the first modular, portable power station with semi-solid state batteries to provide more reliable, safer, cleaner energy from RV and off-grid living to EV charging, to whole-home power and emergency backup. By combining the SuperBase V, extended satellite batteries, smart house panels, EV chargers, solar panels, and the ZEN+ intelligent cloud platform, Zendure provides a comprehensive energy storage system that is an eco-friendly alternative to traditional gas-powered generators.
"After attending Intersolar North America,
I was able to meet and talk with some of the most influential people in the
energy storage industry," said Bryan Liu,
Zendure CEO. "Everyone was actively sharing their impressive visions for
the long-term success of clean/solar energy, which inspired me and sparked some
new ideas for Zendure's product development. Intersolar Middle East Energy should
be another great learning experience for me."
SMART, WHOLE-HOME POWER
SuperBase V features industry-leading
semi-solid-state batteries, which boast a higher energy density and greater
damage resistance than lithium-ion phosphate batteries. Power is customizable
and expands from 6.4kWh to 64kWh, meaning the right set-up can store enough
energy to power a typical household for a week or more.
As the first and only system that can
supply 120V/240V dual voltage from a single base unit, SuperBase V can charge
small and large appliances simultaneously, including refrigerators, heating
and cooling systems, oven, and more at the same time. And when the unexpected
happens, SuperBase V's backup power switches on instantly without interruption,
preventing damage or disruption to sensitive equipment.
SuperBase V also works with Amazon
Alexa and Google Home systems for intuitive, convenient voice control. The
Zendure app also gives users tools to monitor, manage and customize energy use,
which can significantly reduce the energy bill.
More
Zendure
Showcases Its Portable, Solar Power Solutions at Intersolar Middle East Energy
(yahoo.com)
He
who permits himself to tell a lie once, finds it much easier to do it the
second time.
Thomas
Jefferson.
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