Baltic Dry Index. 1535 -25 Brent Crude 72.97
Spot Gold 1989 U S 2 Year Yield 3.81 -0.33
"When paper money systems begin
to crack at the seams, the run to gold could be explosive."
Harry Browne.
Not
much need for my input this weekend as the articles below speak for themselves.
Ahead
of next week’s Fed interest rate meeting volatility on steroids has broken out
in US Treasuries. Nothing good comes from bond market instability, it wreaks havoc
on just about everyone from hedge funds, to insurance companies, to mutual
funds, to pension funds.
The
financialised, gambling fiat money regime that replaced capitalism in the Great
Nixonian Error of Fiat Money, August 15, 1971, is now starting to self-destruct
as the bankster Lords of the Universe crash back to earth.
Dow closes nearly 400 points lower on Friday as First
Republic and regional banks resume slide: Live updates
FRI, MAR 17 2023 6:23 PM EDT
Stocks fell
Friday as investors pulled back from positions in First Republic and
other bank shares amid lingering concerns over the state of the U.S. banking
sector.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost
384.57 points, or 1.19%, to close at 31,861.98 points. The S&P 500 slid
1.10% to end at 3,916.64 points, while the Nasdaq Composite was
down 0.74% to 11,630.51 points.
First
Republic slid nearly 33% to end the week down close to 72%.
That marked a turn from Thursday’s relief bounce, which came when a group of
banks said it would aid First Republic with $30
billion in deposits as a sign of confidence in the banking
system. Friday’s nosedive weighed on the SPDR Regional Banking ETF (KRE),
which lost 6% in the session and finished the week 14% lower.
U.S.-listed shares of Credit
Suisse closed down nearly 7% as traders parsed through the
bank’s announcement that it would borrow up to $50 billion francs, or nearly $54 billion, from the Swiss National
Bank. The stock lost 24% over the course of the week.
---- Investors pulled back on Friday ahead of
what could potentially be an eventful weekend as the bank crisis plays out,
said Keith Buchanan, senior portfolio manager at Globalt Investments.
“There’s nervousness into the
weekend of: How does this all look on Monday?,” he said. “The market is nervous
about holding stocks into that.”
The shakeup arrives at a time
when investors are looking
ahead to the Federal Reserve’s upcoming meeting on March 21-22.
The question on the minds of traders is whether the central bank will proceed
with an expected 25 basis point hike
even as banking woes whiplash the market.
More
Stock
market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)
Europe stocks log worst week of the year as Credit
Suisse rattles sentiment
UPDATED FRI, MAR 17 2023 1:14 PM EDT
European stocks rounded off a turbulent week
with a negative session on Friday, despite announcements that Credit Suisse and
First Republic Bank would receive financial help designed to prevent a crisis
in the banking sector.
The pan-European Stoxx 600 index
closed 1.26% lower, taking losses for the week to 3.9% according to Eikon data,
their worst performance since September 2022.
Banks led losses with a 2.6%
fall, followed by financial services, down 2.1%.
It comes after European banking stocks recovered
over the previous session, with Credit Suisse reversing
Wednesday’s dramatic 24% share price dip to end the session 18.8% higher.
However, Credit Suisse shares
were back on a downward slope Friday, and ended 8% lower. The stock was down
25.5% on the week after their rollercoaster of
a ride, according to Eikon data, their worst weekly performance since March 13,
2020.
“Whether depositors are
sufficiently reassured to stem outflows over the next few days is a key
question, in our view,” said Frédérique Carrier, head of investment strategy
for RBC Wealth Management, quoted by Reuters.
“While markets are relieved that
the Swiss central bank stepped in, sentiment is bound to remain very fragile,
particularly as investors will likely worry about the eventual economic impact
of aggressive monetary policy tightening by the European Central Bank.”
More
European
markets open to close, earnings, data and news (cnbc.com)
Bank fears return to haunt global stock markets
Fri, March 17, 2023 at 10:07 PM GMT
Stocks markets tumbled again on Friday as fears of a banking crisis
resurfaced despite massive financial lifelines thrown at embattled lenders to
prevent contagion across the sector.
Markets had rallied on Thursday after Wall Street titans including JP
Morgan, Bank of America and Citigroup pledged to inject $30 billion into First
Republic Bank.
Credit Suisse had also rebounded after it said it would borrow up to $54
billion from the Swiss central bank.
But shares of First Republic Bank and Credit Suisse dove back deep in
the red on Friday, with the US lender slumping 33 percent and Switzerland's
second biggest bank dropping eight percent.
The stock prices of other major banks also fell, with JP Morgan,
Citigroup and Bank of America down at least three percent.
The wider markets were also in the red. On Wall Street, the S&P 500
finished down 1.1 percent.
In Europe, London stocks closed down 1.0 percent, while Frankfurt
slumped 1.3 percent and Paris dropped 1.4 percent to cap a rollercoaster week.
"The negative disposition for the broader market has a familiar
driver: worries about the state of the banking industry," said market
analyst Patrick O'Hare at Briefing.com.
Banks stepped in to save First Republic over fears it could suffer a run
of withdrawals by customers worried it would follow US lenders Silicon Valley
Bank and Signature Bank, which went under last week and fueled fears of another
financial crisis.
O'Hare said the market was unnerved by data showing that bank borrowing
from the US Federal Reserve's discount window hit a record high of
approximately $153 billion for the week ending March 15, "exceeding
anything seen during the financial crisis."
The Fed's discount window allows banks to quickly access funds,
providing them with liquidity when customers withdraw more deposits than
expected, and the record figure is an indication of stress in the sector.
"This week has been a liquidity crisis, but it seems that the moves
by authorities to remedy the situation have not completely reassured wary
investors," said Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at online trading
platform IG.
The dollar fell against its major rivals, while oil prices sank more
than four percent at one point before clawing back some of that ground.
Oil prices have been pummelled this week as turmoil in the banking
sector has increased the risk of a significant economic slowdown or recession
this year," said market analyst Craig Erlam at Oanda trading platform.
- Fed's next move -
Investors will focus next week on whether the US Federal Reserve will
stick to its interest rate-hike policy to combat inflation.
Before the SVB crisis unfolded, there had been a widespread expectation
the Fed would ramp up its tightening campaign and push on for as long as needed
until it had quelled inflation.
But with SVB's demise largely blamed on the sharp rise in borrowing
costs -- fueling fears of a repeat at other banks -- speculation has swirled
that the Fed may stop hiking and maybe even cut rates to provide some
stability.
However, the European Central Bank on Thursday stuck to its plan to lift
rates by a half percentage point despite the turmoil.
Bank
fears return to haunt global stock markets (yahoo.com)
Parent company of Silicon Valley
Bank files for bankruptcy
March
17, 2023
The parent of Silicon Valley Bank filed for Chapter 11
bankruptcy a week after the tech-focused bank failed and was seized by the U.S.
government.
The filing from SVB Financial Group on Friday is not a
surprise, with much of the company now under the control of U.S. banking
regulators. During the 2008 financial crisis, the parent companies of failed
banks Washington Mutual and IndyMac — filed for bankruptcy protection in the
days after their banking operations failed.
Also, Silicon Valley Bank along with its CEO and its
chief financial officer were targeted this week in a class action lawsuit that claims the company didn’t disclose the risks
that future interest rate increases would have on its business.
SVB Financial Group is no longer affiliated with Silicon Valley Bank after its seizure by the Federal Deposit Insurance
Corporation. The bank’s successor, Silicon Valley Bridge Bank, is being run
under the jurisdiction of the FDIC and is not included in the Chapter 11
filing.
The bankruptcy filling by SVB Financial
Group will create a legal battle over the bank’s remaining assets, between the
creditors of the holding company and bank regulators who are looking to make
depositors whole. SVB Financial Group believes it has approximately $2.2
billion of liquidity. It also said it also has other valuable investment
securities accounts and other assets that are being considered for sale.
The Wall Street Journal reported that a group of
distressed debt investors — mostly hedge funds — bought up the bonds of Silicon
Valley Bank’s holding company in a bet that that there will be some proceeds
for bondholders after the bankruptcy process is completed.
“The Chapter 11 process will allow SVB Financial Group to
preserve value as it evaluates strategic alternatives for its prized businesses
and assets, especially SVB Capital and SVB Securities,” William Kosturos, Chief
Restructuring Officer for SVB Financial Group, said in a prepared statement
Friday.
SVB Capital is the company’s venture capital and private
credit fund. SVB Securities is a regulated broker-dealer. Both continue to
operate and have sources of funding, the company said.
The shuttering of Silicon Valley Bank last Friday and of
New York’s Signature Bank two
days later has revived bad memories of the financial crisis that plunged the United
States into the Great Recession about 15 years ago.
Over the weekend the federal government,
determined to restore public confidence in the banking system, moved to protect all the
banks’ deposits, even those that exceeded the FDIC’s $250,000 limit per
individual account.
Parent company of
Silicon Valley Bank files for bankruptcy | AP News
Finally,
yet another Nickel scandal at the LME? The LME sounds like another job for Diogenes
looking for an honest man.
LME finds 'irregularities' in several nickel bags at a
warehouse
March
17, 2023
(Reuters) - The London
Metal Exchange (LME) on Friday postponed the resumption of nickel trading
during Asian hours by a week to March 27 after it found nickel that failed to
meet contract specifications at an LME warehouse.
The move is another blow to the world's oldest and
biggest industrial metals market, which had been counting on a restart of Asian
trade to boost liquidity in a contact that has been struggling since a nickel
crisis a year ago.
The LME said it had cancelled nine nickel warrants
- an ownership document for metals placed in an LME-approved warehouse - at one
warehouse facility, without naming it.
"The exchange has received information that a
number of physical nickel shipments out of one specific facility of an
LME-licensed warehouse operator have been subject to such irregularities,"
the statement said.
The announcement further undermines trust in the
global nickel trade after trader Trafigura last month alleged that it
discovered "systematic fraud" in shipments that did not contain nickel
and begun legal proceedings against Indian businessman Prateek Gupta and his
companies.
"We do not own any of the nine warrants that
have been invalidated by the LME," Trafigura said. There is no connection
with Trafigura's legal action against Gupta either, it added.
A spokesperson for Gupta has said that they were
preparing "a robust response" to the allegations.
As each warrant equals about 6 tonnes, 54 tonnes
were affected. The LME said the non-conformant warrants represent 0.14% of live
nickel stock in its warehouses.
The 146-year-old LME said the issues with nickel
related to bagged nickel briquettes, which were found to not have the correct
weight.
It did not name the warehouse or its location.
The bags in question were at a warehouse owned by
Access World in Rotterdam and contained stones instead of the nickel, Bloomberg
reported, citing sources familiar with the matter.
The LME declined to comment on the Bloomberg report
and Access World did not immediately respond to an emailed request for comment.
More.
LME
finds 'irregularities' in several nickel bags at a warehouse (msn.com)
Global
Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its
own.
That
Banking crisis explained. Is it all over? Approx. 26 minutes.
BANK
RUNS - Credit Suisse Needs $54 Billion BAILOUT to Avoid Collapse as Cash Crisis
Hit Europe
Below,
why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be
quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity
Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.
The
“New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking
https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf
Mines,
Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check
https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check
"An
Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As
The Industry Races To Recycle
by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM
Covid-19
Corner
This
section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
FDA advisers vote in support of Paxlovid approval for
Covid-19 treatment in high-risk adults
March
16, 2023
Advisers to the US Food
and Drug Administration voted 16-1 on Thursday in support of full approval of
Paxlovid, stating that the benefits outweigh any risks of the drug for
treatment of mild to moderate Covid-19 in adults who are at high risk for
severe disease, including hospitalization and death.
Before the antiviral medication is fully approved,
the FDA – which typically follows the recommendations of the independent
advisory committee – must conduct its own review. That’s expected to wrap up in
May.
Over 8 million people in the US have received
Paxlovid, a combination of the drugs nirmatrelvir and ritonavir, since it
became available under emergency use authorization in December 2021.
“I’d say besides oxygen, Paxlovid has probably been
the single most important tool in this epidemic, and it continues to be,” said
Dr. Richard Murphy, chief of infectious diseases with the Veterans Affairs
White River Junction Medical Center and a member of the FDA’s Antimicrobial
Drugs Advisory Committee who voted in support of approval at the meeting.
“We still have many groups that stand to benefit
from the use of Paxlovid, including unvaccinated persons, undervaccinated
persons, elderly, immunocompromised, and the other treatment options that we
have have significant disadvantages,” he said.
----The FDA also
concluded that Paxlovid is not associated with Covid-19 rebound, in which
people test positive or see their symptoms return after they finish the
five-day course of the drug.
The agency said it has reviewed data
regarding rebound cases, which some users have reported since Paxlovid was
authorized in 2021. Last year, both President Biden and his former chief
medical adviser, Dr. Anthony Fauci, reported
rebound symptoms after
taking Paxlovid.
However, based on clinical trial data, the FDA “did
not identify a clear association between Paxlovid treatment and Covid-19
rebound.”
Covid rebound rates ranged from 10% to 16%, with no
difference between people who took Paxlovid and those who got a placebo. This
was also regardless of a person’s risk of severe disease with the Omicron
variant compared with the Delta variant, according to clinical trial data
reviewed by the FDA.
Overall, the agency said, the findings indicate that
Covid-19 rebound may occur in a subset of infections as part of the natural
progression and resolution of the disease.
----No major safety concerns were
identified in the clinical trial data, the FDA said. However, the agency has
flagged 137 medications with Paxlovid drug-drug interactions (DDIs) that may
lead to serious adverse reactions.
Paxlovid may keep the body from metabolizing certain
drugs, leading to higher drug concentrations that can lead to serious or
life-threatening reactions, according to an FDA Emergency Use
Authorization Fact Sheet. Drugs that should not be taken with Paxlovid include
some medications to treat conditions such as high cholesterol, gout, migraine,
irregular heartbeat and benign prostatic hyperplasia.
According to the agency, over 50% of
Paxlovid-eligible patients may be on medication with a DDI at the time of Covid
diagnosis.
More
World
Health Organization - Landscape of COVID-19 candidate vaccines. https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines
NY
Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory
Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some more useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
The Spectator
Covid-19 data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Electric car battery recycling
needs improving – and fast
March
16, 2023
It doesn’t take a genius to work out what
kind of recycling issues battery-electric vehicles (BEVs for short) will pose
in years to come. At present just over a million cars a year are scrapped in
the UK with, unsurprisingly, the most commonly scrapped models consisting of
the most popular new models of their day: at present that’s the Ford Focus and
Fiesta, Vauxhall Astra and Corsa, Volkswagen Golf and Renault Clio in the top
places.
In the UK the average car is
8.4 years old and the average lifespan 13.9 years, so typically anything you
see on the roads today will have five and half years to live. While there is
evidence of a tendency to keep cars in service for longer, scrappage incentive
schemes such as the one currently being
offered in London have the
effect of reducing the average age of scrapped vehicles by as much as a year.
Steel, rubber, glass, copper,
aluminium and plastics, along with the liquids, exhaust catalysts and the
12-volt service batteries are recovered at Authorised Treatment Facilities
(ATFs) around the country and recycled back into the automotive manufacturing
process, although not always in the same use they had before.
Typically,
65 per cent of a conventional combustion-engined family car consists of iron
and steel, which is relatively straightforward to recycle using magnetic
separation. Aluminium is also simple, if energy-intensive, to recycle, interior
fabrics and leathers are recovered and shredded for use in home furnishings and
occasionally the fashion industry, dashboard plastics get used for plastic
bags, carpets and plastic furniture, tyres are shredded for use in artificial
sports pitches and children’s playgrounds, glass is separated from its plastic
laminate and recycled as glass products and engine oil goes into the fuel tanks
of container ships.
What about the batteries of EVs?
So
how will that change? In a word, slowly, as EV sales, while significant, aren’t
yet making huge inroads into the current total of 40.6 million cars and light
vans on UK roads. At the end of 2021 there were about 400,000 pure
battery-electric cars and 1,110,000 plug-in vehicles, a figure which includes
plug-in hybrid (PHEV) cars with smaller batteries as well as combustion
engines.
What will be the lifespan of these EVs? On the one hand there’s
some evidence that with average mileages of 10,000 a year, the main drive
battery will last at least 10 years, with a two to three per cent degradation
per year they’ll have between 70 and 80 per cent of their initial capacity
intact – but there are other forces at work.
After
a decade, the car’s software-based control systems are likely to be highly
outmoded, motors and transmissions will wear out and battery-control technology
will have been superseded several times over. Safety and environmental requirements for tyre and brake
particulates (as in the forthcoming Euro 7 regulations) will
be stricter; even battery cars aren’t immune from the legislators’ red pens.
Wear and corrosion to the bodyshell, steering and suspension parts could write
off a battery car, not to mention crash damage.
So,
it’s difficult to see EVs lasting significantly longer than the average
13.9-year life of their combustion counterparts. And while the long-term
failure rate of lithium-ion nickel, manganese and cobalt (NMC) batteries is
difficult to predict, there’s a fair possibility that a 13-year-old,
end-of-life NMC battery will still have about 70 per cent of its initial
capacity and, according to Renault, about 60 to 70 per cent of its economic
value.
More
Electric car
battery recycling needs improving – and fast (msn.com)
This weekend’s music diversion. Another forgotten maestro. Approx. 6 minutes.
F.
Chelleri: Sinfonia for strings & b.c. in C major / Atalanta Fugiens
F.
Chelleri: Sinfonia for strings & b.c. in C major / Atalanta Fugiens -
YouTube
This
weekend’s chess update. Approx. 8 minutes.
Journey Of The Immortal Knight
Journey
Of The Immortal Knight - YouTube
This
weekend math’s update. Approx. 14 minutes
Six
Sequences – Numberphile
Six
Sequences - Numberphile - YouTube
"Gold would have value if for no other reason than that it enables a citizen to fashion his financial escape from the state."
William F. Rickenbacker.
No comments:
Post a Comment