Baltic
Dry Index. 1099 +109 Brent Crude 84.24
Spot Gold 1833 US 2 Year Yield 4.89 +0.08
Coronavirus
Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,103
Coronavirus Cases 02/03/23 World 680,184,479
Deaths 6,801,604
“The Party seeks power entirely for its own sake. We are not
interested in the good of others; we are interested solely in power, pure
power.”
George Orwell 1984.
After
50+ years on the Great Nixonian Error of Fiat Money Dollar standard, the era of
western led [Spain, France, Britain, America,] commercial dominance is rapidly
ending.
What
replaces it is as unknown as it was to the Romans whose dominance collapsed
from roughly 400+ AD.
Back
then, things happened at the pace of horses and sailing ships. Now, at the
speed of electrons.
While
collapse won’t happen in days or weeks, it won’t happen over a couple of centuries
as happened with Rome.
The
USA-UK proxy war on Russia in Ukraine is going badly for Ukraine. They have/are running
out of trained troops, ammunition and military transport.
The
great fiat currency experiment has run into the Great Magic Money Tree Forest
Inflation of March 2020, now collapsing countries from Pakistan to South Africa.
More
and more of planet Earth is reeling from food price inflation with no end in
sight short of an end to the war in Ukraine.
The
west, led by a clearly failing 80 year old and a gaggle of non-entities from Trudeau
to Scholz, is attempting to muddle through but without any plan for the demise
of fiat currency.
While
the expectation is for China to step into the west’s void, that is far easier said
than done and anyway can’t be done seamlessly. A rough patch for planet Earth
lies directly ahead.
Time
to add a little more fully paid up physical precious metals held safely out of
the fiat currency bankster system.
Asia-Pacific
markets mostly decline as investors brace for further hikes ahead
UPDATED THU, MAR 2 2023 12:46 AM
EST
Asia-Pacific
markets were trading largely lower as investors braced for further hikes ahead
as Federal
Reserve speakers reiterated more hikes are needed to tame
inflation.
Minneapolis Fed President Neel
Kashkari on Wednesday said the Fed will “continue doing what we’re doing until
we finish the jobs, and I’m committed to doing that.” The U.S. 10-year Treasury
yield briefly topped 4% overnight.
In Japan, the Nikkei 225 fell
marginally and the Topix dropped 0.24%. South Korea’s Kospi climbed 0.7%,
while the Kosdaq gained 0.16% even as the country’s industrial output fell
12.7% in January on an annualized basis.
Asia’s Tesla suppliers
were also closely watched as the company’s stock fell more than 5% in after
hour trade as Investor
Day fell short on details about any new products or services.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose
marginally to end the day at 7255.4. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index was
0.84% lower, while the Hang Seng Tech index fell 1.56%.
In mainland China, the Shenzhen Component was
down 0.58%, while the Shanghai
Composite was fractionally higher.
Singapore is expected to release
its factory activity data for February on Thursday afternoon.
Overnight, U.S. stocks were
largely down as both the S&P
500 and Nasdaq
Composite saw losses, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended
the day just above the flatline.
Asia-Pacific
markets, U.S. bond yields, Australia, Japan, Korea (cnbc.com)
Here’s how much
economists expect China’s GDP to grow this year
Now that China has ended its stringent Covid
controls, the economy could return to growth of more than 5%.
China’s latest factory
data marked the highest reading in nearly eleven years,
indicating further recovery ahead.
Beijing set an ambitious target of around 5.5% growth for 2022. But Covid
controls and the real estate slump weighed heavily. China’s GDP grew
by only 3% last year.
On Sunday, the
Chinese government is widely expected to announce a GDP growth target of around
or above 5% for the year.
“This year a likely
rebound in the housing market (as well as the exit from its ‘zero Covid’
policy) will help China’s GDP growth to improve,” said Societe Generale.
The bank is the most
optimistic of firms surveyed by CNBC, with a GDP growth forecast of 5.8%.
Here’s the full list
of forecasts:
More
Here's
how much economists expect China's GDP to grow this year (cnbc.com)
Column:
U.S. diesel consumption falls as economy slows
March
2, 2023 1:00 AM GMT
LONDON, March 1
(Reuters) - U.S. consumption of diesel and other distillate fuel oils ended
last year at the slowest rate for a decade in response to the slowdown in
manufacturing and freight activity, government data released on Tuesday showed.
The
volume of distillate fuel oil supplied to the domestic market, a proxy for
consumption, averaged 3.7 million barrels per day in December 2022, according
to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
The volume of
distillates supplied was down from 4.0 million barrels per day in the same
month a year earlier and the slowest for the time of year since 2012 (“Petroleum supply monthly”, EIA, February 28).
Nearly
80% of distillates are used in freight transport, manufacturing and
construction, so fuel consumption is closely geared to the manufacturing and
freight cycle.
Growth
in both manufacturing activity and distillate consumption peaked in the first
half of 2021 as the economy rebounded after the first wave of the pandemic.
Since then,
growth in manufacturing production and distillate use has been slowing and both
turned negative in the final months of 2022.
U.S.
manufacturing activity contracted in every month between November 2022 and
February 2023, according to monthly business surveys conducted by the Institute
for Supply Management (ISM).
In
the three months from December to February, the average ISM index was in only
the 17th percentile for all similar periods since 1980, down from the 91st
percentile at the end of 2021.
Distillate
consumption also fell below prior-year levels in six of the nine months between
April and December 2022 as demand dropped.
Distillate
growth slowed to the 26th percentile in the three months from October to
December, down from the 80th percentile at the end of 2021.
Slower
consumption created some scope to stabilise depleted distillate inventories towards
the end of 2022.
Nonetheless,
inventories ended the year at 119 million barrels, the lowest for the time of
year since 2000 and before that 1989.
More
timely but less comprehensive weekly statistics show stocks rebuilding further
in the first two months of 2023.
But
inventories remain significantly below the long-term average, which means
prices are likely to rise again rapidly if manufacturing activity strengthens
again in the next few months.
More
Column:
U.S. diesel consumption falls as economy slows | Reuters
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Stubborn
inflation will remain at a very high level, German central bank president says
PUBLISHED WED, MAR 1 2023 8:37 AM
EST
Joachim
Nagel, president of the Germany’s Bundesbank and one of the
ECB’s more hawkish members, told CNBC’s Annette Weisbach Wednesday
that consumer price rises are set to remain stubbornly high.
“It looks like for at
least the next couple of months inflation will stay on very high levels, expect
maybe for the second half that inflation might come down to a certain extent,”
he said Wednesday.
“But still what we
expect for this year for Germany is an average inflation rate of around 6 to
7%.”
Stubborn inflation
will remain at a very high level, German central bank president says (cnbc.com)
With recession
looming, Germany is in a much bigger bind than Britain
1 March
2023
And then there were two, possibly even three or
four. As the only member of the G7 whose economy had not recovered to
pre-pandemic levels, Britain was beginning to look not just like the odd man
out, but the sick man of the developed world. Brexit and a very much deeper
contraction than more or less everyone else experienced during the pandemic
were widely blamed.
Yet the race is not always to the swift, nor
the battle to the strong, and several other major economies are now fast
sinking back down into the same dispiriting territory.
The way things are going, Keir Starmer's utterly ridiculous
target of achieving the highest
rate of sustainable growth in the G7 might actually be met before he even gets
his hands on the keys to Downing Street, if indeed he ever does.
The aspiration is absurd because even if
Starmer's Labour Party could do something to improve Britain's growth
potential, it has little or no control over anybody else's, and is therefore
powerless to determine the UK's place in the hierarchy.
Be that as it may, recent revisions to the
data show that the German economy actually shrank in
the final quarter of last year, unlike
the UK, which merely stagnated.
Nor is the mood music in
Germany around the current quarter at all good either. The manufacturing PMIs are down, and although the latest Ifo index reading suggests
that things may now be picking up a bit, the second consecutive drop in Ifo's
so-called "current assessment" points to another quarter of economic
contraction yet to come.
This would push Germany into the technical definition of a recession (two
consecutive quarters of declining growth). But for the unseasonably warm
weather and a large dollop of fiscal stimulus, which protected German consumers
and industry from the full impact of surging energy prices, it could have been
a great deal worse. A mild recession would have become a deep one.
As
it is, German GDP has already slipped back down below its pre-pandemic
level, and looks set to fall further. The same fate awaits Italy,
according to forecasts by Moody’s Investors Service. Japan too looks to be in
the danger zone.
Things hardly look brilliant in Britain either, with the full
force of rising energy bills and mortgage rates still to be felt. Even so, we
seem to be on an improving trend, and no longer in such a bad way relative to
others as we were.
This
is the very reverse of what the International Monetary Fund (IMF) was
forecasting only as recently as last month. In an update to its World Economic
Outlook, the IMF said it expected the UK to contract this year, but
for the rest of the G7 to show some growth.
The
old rule of thumb that you should look at what the IMF is saying and then think
of the opposite has once again been vindicated. In any case, the IMF may have to eat humble pie when
it releases its latest "Article IV” assessment of the UK economy shortly.
More
With recession
looming, Germany is in a much bigger bind than Britain (msn.com)
UK
grocery price inflation hits record 17.1%
February 28, 2023 8:49 AM GMT
LONDON, Feb 28 (Reuters) - British
grocery inflation hit 17.1% in the four weeks to Feb. 19, another record high,
dealing the latest blow to consumers struggling with a cost-of-living crisis,
industry data showed on Tuesday.
Market researcher Kantar said prices
are rising fastest in markets such as milk, eggs and
margarine.
It said UK households now face an
additional 811 pounds ($978) on their annual shopping bills if they don't
change their behaviour to cut costs.
"This February marks a full year
since monthly grocery inflation climbed above 4%. This is having a big impact on
people’s lives," Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at
Kantar, said.
He said its research found that rising
grocery prices are the second most important financial issue for the public
behind energy costs. Also a quarter of people say they're struggling
financially, versus one in five this time last year.
After a tough 2022, British consumers
are facing a further squeeze on their finances this year as the government cuts
back support on household energy bills and mortgage rates rise.
However, Official
data published this month did show overall UK consumer price inflation
fell to 10.1% in January, the lowest reading since September, while confidence
data from market research firm GfK last week showed consumers had
turned more upbeat about their personal finances.
Kantar said that sales of own label
products were up by 13.2% in February, well ahead of growth in branded
products, which are generally more expensive, of 4.6%.
Kantar said UK grocery sales increased
8.1% over the 12 weeks to Feb. 19, masking a drop in volumes when accounting
for inflation.
German-owned discounters Aldi
and Lidl were again the fastest growing grocers, partly due to new
store openings, with sales up 26.7% and 25.4%, respectively.
Market leader Tesco's (TSCO.L) sales
rose 6.6%, with Sainsbury's (SBRY.L) up
6.2% and Asda up 5.9%.
Morrisons was
again the laggard, with a sales decline of 0.9%.
UK grocery price inflation hits record 17.1% | Reuters
Covid-19
Corner
This
section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
China spent years
angrily trying to shut down the theory that COVID-19 came from its labs. It
failed.
Wed,
March 1, 2023 at 12:54 PM GMT
·
The FBI's director
has added his support to claims COVID-19 leaked from a lab in China.
·
The theory was
dismissed by some as disinformation during the initial months of the pandemic.
·
But it has gained
credibility in some quarters, despite angry denials from China.
Once dismissed as a wild
conspiracy theory, the claim that COVID-19 leaked from a laboratory in Wuhan,
China, is gaining traction.
FBI Director Christopher Wray on
Tuesday lent his support to the claim in an interview with Fox News, saying the
virus "most likely" originated in a "Chinese
government-controlled lab."
"The FBI has for quite some
time now assessed that the origins of the pandemic are most likely a potential
lab incident," he said, in the first public confirmation of the FBI's
classified judgement on the source of the pandemic.
It came days after the US Energy
Department found a lab leak to be the
most likely source of the disease—
although it said it reached that conclusion with a low level of
confidence. In response, Beijing accused Washington of "political
manipulation".
China has pushed another theory,
suggesting the COVID-19 may have jumped to humans from frozen food shipped from
elsewhere in the world.
So how has the claim that
coronavirus originated in a Chinese lab found its way into the mainstream?
Lab leak theory initially dismissed
The suspicion that COVID-19 may
have leaked from a Wuhan lab has circulated since the earliest days of the
pandemic.
The theories focus on the fact
that the Wuhan Institute of Virology, where research into coronaviruses has
long been conducted, is located a short distance from the market from which the
first cases were linked.
---- China has since the earliest
days of the pandemic resisted a full and transparent investigation into its
origins, fuelling rumors and speculation.
Beijing has strongly pushed back
against the claim the virus could've originated in a lab, describing the hypothesis as having
no scientific basis.
China has pushed its own
conspiracy theories about the source of the
virus, claiming it could
have originated in US labs, a claim for which it's offered no evidence.
When Australia
pushed for international inspectors to allow access to China in 2020 to
investigate COVID-19's origins, Beijing responded with sweeping economic sanctions.
More
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Centers for Disease Control
Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The
Spectator Covid-19
data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Brits paying hundreds of
millions to turn off wind farms as network 'can't cope' with the power
February 28, 2023
UK consumers are paying hundreds of millions of pounds to turn wind
turbines off because the grid cannot deal with how much electricity they make
on the windiest days.
The energy regulator Ofgem has told Sky News it is because the grid is
"not yet fit for purpose" as the country transitions to a clean power
system by 2035.
The National Grid Electricity System Operator (ESO), which is
responsible for keeping the lights on, has forecast that these "constraint
costs", as they are known, may rise to as much as £2.5bn per year by the
middle of this decade before the necessary upgrades are made.
The problem has arisen as more and more wind capacity is built in
Scotland and in the North Sea but much of the demand for electricity continues
to come from more densely populated areas in the south of the country.
In order to match supply and demand, the National Grid has to move
electricity from where it is being made to where it is needed.
But at the moment there aren't enough cables between Scotland and
England to do that.
There is one major undersea cable off the west coast of the UK, and two
main junctions between the Scottish and English transmission networks on land.
This
bottleneck means that when it is very windy there is actually too much
electricity for these cables to handle without risking damage.
And because we
can't store excess renewable energy at the necessary scale yet, the National
Grid Electricity System Operator has no option but to ask wind generators to
turn off their turbines.
According to
analysis by energy technology company Axle Energy, using publicly available
data from the electricity system's balancing market platform Elexon, in 2022
the National Grid spent £215m paying wind generators to turn off, reducing the
total amount generated by 6%, and a further £717m turning on gas turbines
located closer to the source of demand, in order to fill the gap.
These costs
are eventually passed to UK consumers as part of the network costs section on
energy bills.
Constraint
costs are not just restricted to clean, cheap wind power.
In order to
balance the system, the National Grid pays fossil fuel generators to ramp
production up and down when necessary too.
But
there is a particular focus on the impact of increasing levels of variable
renewable generation and how that can be best managed.
More
“You are a slow learner, Jerome."
"How can I help it? How can I help but see what is in front of my eyes?
Two and two are four."
"Sometimes, Jerome. Sometimes they are five. Sometimes they are three.
Sometimes they are all of them at once. You must try harder.
With apologies to George Orwell 1984.
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