Baltic Dry Index. 1211 +66 Brent Crude 85.25
Spot Gold 1854 US 2 Year Yield 4.86 -0.03
Coronavirus
Cases 01/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,103
Coronavirus Cases 06/03/23 World 680,677,987
Deaths 6,805,251
“I’m just a banker doing God’s work”
Lloyd Blankfein, “Mr.
Goldman Sacks,” the ex-CEO of Goldman Sachs.
The
rich get richer in recessions, says Michael
Ward the head of Harrods luxury department store in London shrugging off worries
over a new recession.
Perhaps,
but as the former CEO of Goldman Sachs found out in 2008, It’s often better to
say nothing and leave the world to guess whether you’re a fool, than to open
your mouth and remove all doubt.
With China’s rubber stamp “Parliament” in
session, today’s Asian action is dominated by China’s low growth target for the
year.
Elsewhere,
interest rate expectations and the US jobs figures will likely dominate.
In
the UK, while Harrods boss expects to boom in a coming recession, many small
businesses expect to go bust. Time for a socialist windfall profits tax on
Harrods? [Sarc.]
Asia markets
mixed as investors further digest China’s modest growth target
UPDATED SUN, MAR 5 2023 9:44 PM EST
Stocks in Asia-Pacific traded mixed on Monday as
investors further digested China’s growth
target set in its parliamentary sessions and looked ahead to a
week of economic data.
In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 rose
0.6% ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision Tuesday, with economists
surveyed by Reuters expecting to see a 25 basis point hike in its cash rate.
The Nikkei 225 rose
1.21% and the Topix climbed 0.9%. In South Korea, the Kospi gained 0.4% and the
Kosdaq climbed 1.01% as the nation’s inflation showed further easing in
February.
In mainland China, the Shanghai
Composite fell 0.2% and then Shenzhen Component inched 0.32% lower after
Chinese Premier Li Keqiang released the nation’s government work report on
Sunday. The Hang Seng index fell
0.35% in Hong Kong.
The U.S. non-farm payroll will be a key focus
this week with expectations to see cooled hiring, prompting the Federal Reserve
to maintain a smaller rate hike pace.
Stocks on Wall Street ended
the week higher as Treasury yields eased from their recent
highs and investors weighed the cumulative impact from Fed hikes already
implemented and digested this week’s comments from the central bank.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose
1.17%, the S&P 500 climbed
1.61%, and the Nasdaq
Composite gained 1.97%. The yield on benchmark 10-year Treasury
note dipped
below the 4% threshold.
Asia
markets mixed as investors further digest China's modest growth target
(cnbc.com)
Stock futures are
little changed as investors look ahead to Powell comments, jobs data this week
UPDATED SUN, MAR 5 2023 7:04 PM
EST
U.S. stock futures were little changed on Sunday
night as Wall Street looked ahead to a week filled with economic data and the
latest commentary from the Federal Reserve.
Dow Jones Industrial Average
futures fell by 36 points, or 0.11%. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures dipped
0.11% and 0.15%, respectively.
Traders are coming off a positive
week for the major averages. The Dow industrials added 1.75% last week, ending
a four-week losing streak. The S&P 500 advanced 1.90%, while the Nasdaq
capped the week with a 2.58% pop.
Those gains come even as the
yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose above the psychological 4%
level at various points last week. An upward move in the 10-year yield raises
borrowing costs for consumers and could signal a drop in investor confidence.
“If you’re afraid of a recession,
go get the 10-year Treasury,” Sri-Kumar Global’s Sri Kumar said in a Friday
appearance for “CNBC Special: Taking Stock.” “Equities are a
losing proposition today, and until you see the valuations come down
significantly, just
don’t trust [Friday’s] rally.”
Important
catalysts this week include congressional testimony Tuesday and
Wednesday from Fed chair Jerome Powell, who will guide investors on how the
central bank is thinking about inflation and its rate-hiking campaign going
forward.
Traders are also anticipating the
February jobs report on Friday, which follows January’s blockbuster report that
showed the economy added 517,000 payrolls. Economists polled by Dow Jones are
expecting 225,000 jobs added last month.
On Monday, the latest factory
orders data will also be released after the bell. Economists are expecting a
decline of 1.8% in January, according to consensus estimates from Dow Jones.
That’s compared to a 1.8% gain in the prior reading.
Stock
market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)
In
other news, the Great Race to World War Three picks up pace. Can this madness
ever be stopped? Is Thucydides about to be right once again?
China to increase
defense spending by 7.2%
BEIJING — China is set to increase defense
spending this year by 7.2% to 1.56 trillion yuan ($230 billion), according to a
draft released Sunday by the Ministry of Finance.
China’s defense budget grew
by 7.1% last year to 1.45 trillion yuan, faster than the 6.8%
increase in 2021 and 6.6% climb in 2020, according to official data.
In 2019, China’s defense spending
rose by 7.5% to 1.19 trillion yuan.
In a separate report
Sunday about government work, Premier Li Keqiang did not mention the
Russia-Ukraine war. “We should stay committed to an independent foreign policy
of peace,” the report said.
The work report
called for “resolute steps to oppose ‘Taiwan independence’” while sticking to
Beijing’s call for “peaceful reunification.”
Taiwan is a
democratically ruled self-governed island that Beijing claims is part of its
territory.
The U.S. government in December authorized over
$800 billion in defense spending for the fiscal year that ends Sept. 30, 2023.
In addition to domestic inflation, the spending plan pointed to the need to counter Chinese and Russian military
capabilities.
That’s significantly higher than
prior years.
In fiscal year 2022, the U.S. spent
$767 billion, or 12% of its budget, on national defense, according to Treasury data. That
was about 2% more than the $755 billion spent in 2021, the data showed.
China
to increase defense spending by 7.2% (cnbc.com)
Thucydides Trap
Thucydides Trap, or Thucydides' Trap, is a term popularized
by American political scientist Graham T. Allison to describe an apparent
tendency towards war when an emerging power threatens to displace an
existing great power as
a regional or international hegemon.[1] It was coined and is primarily
used to describe a potential conflict between the United States and the People's
Republic of China.[2]
The term is based on a quotation
of ancient Athenian historian
and military general Thucydides, in which he
posited that the Peloponnesian War between Athens and Sparta had been inevitable because of
Spartan fears of the growth of Athenian power.[3][4]
Supporting the thesis, Graham
Allison led a study at Harvard University's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs which
found that among 16 historical instances of an emerging power rivaling a ruling
power, 12 ended in war. That study, however, has come under considerable
criticism, and scholarly opinion on the veracity of the Thucydides
Trap—particularly as it relates to a potential U.S.–China military conflict—is
divided.
More
Finally, what does Harris know that we
don’t? Hardly a vote on a soft landing.
Former
top Credit Suisse shareholder sells full stake in bank
March
6, 2023 4:17 AM GMT
March 5 (Reuters)
- Harris Associates, one of Credit Suisse's (CSGN.S) major shareholders, has sold its
stake in the Swiss bank over the past few months, the deputy chairman and chief
investment officer of the activist Chicago-based investor, David Herro, said on
Sunday.
Herro
did not give a reason for the stake sale, but earlier told the Financial Times
that Harris had sold the stake after losing patience with Credit Suisse's
strategy to stem persistent losses and a client exodus.
Harris, which had
remained loyal despite a string of scandals at Credit Suisse, disclosed a stake
of about 10% in the bank last August but reduced it to 5% in January.
Harris
had started to cut its exposure in October after Credit Suisse raised 4 billion
Swiss francs ($4.3 billion) from investors and when Saudi National Bank
supplanted it as the top investor, Herro told the Financial Times, which first
reported the news that Harris had sold all its shares.
"There is a
question about the future of the franchise. There have been large outflows from
wealth management," the newspaper quoted Herro as saying. Credit Suisse
reported a sharp acceleration in withdrawals in the fourth quarter, with
outflows of more than 110 billion Swiss francs.
"We
have lots of other options to invest," he added. "Rising interest
rates mean lots of European financials are headed in the other direction. Why
go for something that is burning capital when the rest of the sector is now
generating it?"
More
Former
top Credit Suisse shareholder sells full stake in bank | Reuters
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
ECB Policy Pioneer
Issing Warns of More Inflation Shocks to Come
Sun, 5 March 2023 at 8:00 am GMT
One of the pioneers of European Central Bank monetary policy
has a stark warning for officials about the threat of more inflation bearing
down on the region’s economy.
Otmar Issing, the former Bundesbanker
who became the first chief economist of the Frankfurt-based institution in
1998, reckons further consumer-price pressures may already be in the pipeline.
“I expect that we will see wage
increases, which will create new inflation shocks,” the 86-year-old German
economist said in an interview in his study in Würzburg, 120 kilometers away
from the Frankfurt home of the ECB.
The remarks by a veteran policymaker
synonymous with hawkishness are all the more poignant after a week when data
showed underlying consumer-price growth in the euro zone at a new record high.
Worry about persisting pressures is
prompting officials to vow further aggressive increases in borrowing costs even
after 300 basis points in hikes since July. In recent days, investor bets
showed for the first time an expectation for the ECB’s deposit rate to reach
4%.
Surrounded by books including The
Inflation of 1923 by Frank Stocker — a tome on the crippling hyperinflation of
Germany’s Weimar Republic — Issing has harsh words for the failure of the ECB
under President Christine Lagarde to have kept consumer prices in check.
“To act early is the best approach,”
he said. “The ECB missed that by quite a lot.”
Issing’s warning of renewed
consumer-price surges reflects his analysis that there’s more to the current
shock than simply an energy spike caused by the war in Ukraine — a view of the
world that Frankfurt officials don’t tend to dwell on.
“Inflation was already under way
before it was exacerbated by the war,” he said. “I never understood why the ECB
for so long neglected that inflation was rising.”
Issing’s legacy in developing the
central bank’s founding two-pillar framework, featuring both economic and
monetary analysis, remained largely intact until it was modified as part of a
strategy review a couple of years ago.
His reputation as the ECB’s original
and archetypal hawk, a standard-bearer of the Bundesbank mantra of price
stability on which the euro-zone institution was founded, also still resonates
in Frankfurt and elsewhere.
More
ECB Policy Pioneer
Issing Warns of More Inflation Shocks to Come (yahoo.com)
Harrods chief
shrugs off recession fears because ‘rich get richer’
Sales at luxury London retailer above pre-pandemic levels and
Windsor framework seen as step forward on EU relations
London MARCH 3 2023
The boss of Harrods said he was confident
that the luxury department store would prosper in an economic downturn because
“the rich get richer in a recession”.
Managing director Michael Ward, who described the
retailer as a “shop window to the world”, said the business was now “trading
ahead of 2019 [levels]” after it was hit hard by the Covid-19 pandemic and a
lack of tourists in London during lockdowns.
“Covid was a good kick for us to refocus on our local
customers. We continue to go from strength to strength here,” Ward told the
Financial Times, adding that British shoppers were now responsible for the
majority of spending, in stark contrast with 2017 when Chinese nationals became
Harrods’ biggest spenders.
“Statistically the rich get richer in a
recession . . . whatever your political persuasion,” he said in response to a
question about whether a worsening economic climate would impact Harrods.
Most households in all income brackets suffered
losses in income last year, but richer people have enjoyed a sharp rise in
stock market performance since the middle of October last year.
Ward’s remarks
come after a recent report predicted another strong year for luxury goods sales
despite soaring inflation and higher bills. Analysts at Bain & Co and
Altagamma said they expected the €353bn sector to grow by “at least” 3 per cent
to 8 per cent in 2023. Meanwhile, French luxury group Hermès had an
“exceptional” year with a 23 per cent jump in annual sales to €11.6bn, and
industry giant LVMH posted record profits for 2022
More
Harrods chief
shrugs off recession fears because ‘rich get richer’ | Financial Times (ft.com)
Hundreds of thousands
of small businesses 'may fold this year' - wiping '£12bn' from economy
March
5, 2023
Hundreds of thousands of the UK's smallest businesses risk
going under this year as costs keep rising, a report has revealed.
The owners of nearly one in
eight microbusinesses, defined as employing fewer than 10 people, fear they
will have to fold, equating to 630,000 businesses.
Catherine
Sweet sells art for a living - both her own and that of other artists - via her
website BobCat Gallery and at exhibitions she puts on.
But
she says "a massive decline in consumer spending" coupled with rising living costs is
a disaster for businesses.
"I
know that my business could grow fivefold If I had a physical space, but every
negotiation I have entered into with the landlord has come to nothing because I
do not have the funds right now.
"Affordable
rent subsidies for retail premises would be a huge boon, because for businesses
like mine, having physical premises would be a game changer, but it's
completely out of our reach," she said.
And Catherine is not alone.
The annual Venture Forward study by
website builder GoDaddy found that only a fifth of microbusiness owners think
the government is doing enough.
More than three quarters also described the
cost of living crisis as the greatest challenge they've ever faced, with the
price of energy the biggest single concern.
More
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
The Dam of Lies Surrounding
COVID Lab Leak Is Breaking
Mar 3 2023
Edited by Fauci,
the “Proximal Origin of SARS-CoV-2” paper was accessed more than 6.7 million
times and cited by over 2,000 media outlets. But was it accurate?
Story at a Glance
·
In
January 2022, House Oversight Committee Republicans released a batch of emails
sent to and from the National Institutes of Health (NIH). A Freedom of
Information Act (FOIA) lawsuit brought by Jimmy Tobias at The Intercept also
forced the release of unredacted NIH correspondence.
·
The
emails reveal there was great concern among NIH leadership, as SARS-CoV-2
appeared to be a genetically engineered virus that somehow escaped from the
Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) in China.
·
The
emails show they were nervous about the possibility that they’d funded the
creation of this virus, and that they were determined to suppress questions
about its origin.
·
A
group of scientists convened by Dr. Jeremy Farrar, director of the Wellcome
Trust, published a paper in which they claimed the virus was decidedly not the
result of intentional engineering. They did admit accidental creation in a lab
could not be ruled out, but that natural evolution was the most likely
scenario. Some of these same scientists had previously shared details
indicative of genetic engineering in emails to Fauci.
- The “Proximal Origin” paper, which was edited by Fauci and “debunked” the lab leak theory without any evidence, became the most read published paper in history. More than 2,000 media outlets have cited it to support their propaganda.
In January 2022, House Oversight Committee Republicans released a batch of emails sent to and from the National Institutes of Health (NIH). [1][2][3] A Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) lawsuit brought by Jimmy Tobias at The Intercept [4] also forced the release of unredacted NIH correspondence in late November 2022, just as Dr. Anthony Fauci prepared to retire from his position as director of the National Institutes of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID).
The emails reveal what many had suspected all along, namely that SARS-CoV-2 appeared to be a genetically engineered virus that somehow escaped from the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) in China. (In a Jan. 17, 2023, Twitter thread, [5] molecular biologist Richard Ebright, who holds a doctorate in microbiology and molecular genetics, summarized the lab-origin hypothesis.)
The correspondence also revealed that a) NIH leaders were nervous about the possibility that they’d funded the creation of this virus, and b) they were determined to suppress questions about its origin.
As reported by the House Oversight Committee: [6]
“Excerpts of emails released
today reveal the following:
·
Jan. 27,
2020: Dr. [Anthony] Fauci knew NIAID had funded EcoHealth Alliance, the WIV was
a subgrantee of EcoHealth, and EcoHealth was not in compliance with its grant
reporting, in particular, a grant that NIAID knew had gain-of-function
potential on novel bat coronaviruses.
·
Feb. 1,
2020: Dr. Fauci, [then-NIH director] Dr. [Francis] Collins, and at least 11
other scientists convened a conference call to discuss COVID-19. On the
conference call, Drs. Fauci and Collins were first warned that COVID-19 may
have leaked from the WIV and may have been intentionally genetically manipulated.
·
Feb. 4,
2020: After speaking with Drs. Fauci and Collins, four participants of the
conference call abandoned their belief the virus originated from the Wuhan lab
and authored a paper [7] entitled ‘The Proximal Origin of SARS-CoV-2.’
Prior to final publication in Nature Medicine, the paper was sent to Dr. Fauci
for editing and approval.
·
April 16,
2020: More than two months after the original conference call, Dr. Collins
emailed Dr. Fauci expressing dismay that the Nature Medicine article—which they
saw prior to publication and were given the opportunity to edit—did not squash
the lab leak hypothesis and asks if the NIH can do more to ‘put down’ the lab
leak hypothesis.
·
April 17,
2020: After Dr. Collins explicitly asked for more public pressure, Dr. Fauci
cited the Nature Medicine paper from the White House podium likely in an effort
to further stifle the hypothesis COVID-19 leaked from the Wuhan lab.”
More
The Dam of Lies
Surrounding COVID Lab Leak Is Breaking (theepochtimes.com)
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Centers for Disease Control
Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The
Spectator Covid-19
data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Biden
admin works on 'green' natural gas as U.S. vies for top LNG spot
March 3, 2023 5:37 PM GMT
WASHINGTON, March
3 (Reuters) - The Biden administration is holding talks with global energy
companies and foreign officials in an effort to set standards for certified
natural gas, a form of the fuel that producers market as climate friendly.
The effort comes
as the United States seeks to sustain its liquefied natural gas, or LNG,
exports to Europe to displace Russian fuel, while also promoting efforts to
fight global warming.
A credible market
for certified natural gas could help it tackle both goals at once. Gas can be
certified as low- or no-carbon if its producers can prove they have reduced
greenhouse gas emissions associated with getting it to market, or if they
purchase carbon offsets to cut its net climate impact.
"It's a big
priority for us to make sure that the role we're playing in ... supplying
natural gas to our allies at a time of great energy security need is done in a
way that is climate responsible," said Brad Crabtree, an assistant
secretary for the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) fossil energy and carbon
management office.
The United States
has become the world’s top gas producer in recent years, and competes with
Qatar to be top LNG exporter.
Crabtree said he
hosted a workshop in October with gas industry representatives, including a new
industry group called the Differentiated Gas Coordinating Council (DGCC), to
discuss standards for certified gas.
His office has
also had talks with European Union representatives, Japan, Norway, the United
Arab Emirates, and Britain, and others on approaches to reduce methane
emissions from the industry, a spokesperson said.
On March 9
Crabtree will also host a private meeting on certified gas at the CERAWeek
energy conference in Houston with about 20 speakers, according to a copy of the
invitation seen by Reuters.
Gas producers
have attempted to market certified gas at a premium for years, using
third-party certifiers - like non-profit MiQ and startup Project Canary - to
prove the fuel has been produced and transported in ways that minimize
emissions.
But a lack of
unified standards on measuring and verifying emissions across the gas supply
chain, and Europe’s energy crisis following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, have prevented low-carbon gas markets from taking off.
More
Biden admin works
on 'green' natural gas as U.S. vies for top LNG spot | Reuters
If you have nothing to say, say nothing.
Mark Twain.
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