Baltic Dry Index. 1379 +52 Brent Crude 81.17
Spot Gold 1832 US 2 Year Yield 4.90 -0.15
Coronavirus
Cases 01/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,103
Coronavirus Cases 10/03/23 World 681,212,510
Deaths 6,809,882
Some of
the queries Quakers are asked to consider, are: "Do you maintain strict
integrity in your business transactions and in your relations with individuals
and organizations? Are you personally scrupulous and responsible in the use of
money entrusted to you, and are you careful not to defraud the public
revenue?"
Probably
why there a no Quakers on Wall Street, in the City of London, or Parliament.
Another
Friday and another key US employment update that might influence the Powell Fed’s
next move on interest rates.
In California,
trouble at Silicon Valley Bank as rising interest rates sank its bond holdings.
The first of many troubled banks, I suspect, and it’s not just banks sitting on
sunk bond portfolios.
In China,
to no ones surprise, CCP Chairman Mao Xi Jinping was reappointed to
carry on leading China. But the Chinese economy seems to be in deep trouble. “As goes China, so goes the world?” Hopefully not.
Hong Kong,
Australia stocks tumble as Asia continues Wall Street’s sell-off; Bank of Japan
holds rates
UPDATED THU, MAR 9 2023 10:50 PM
EST
Stocks in the Asia-Pacific dipped on Friday, as
investors await the closely watched February
non-farm payrolls report from the U.S. that could further
determine the direction on the Federal
Reserve’s rate hikes ahead.
The Hang Seng index
in Hong Kong fell 2.4%, leading losses in the region. In mainland China, the Shenzhen Component shed
1.1% and the Shanghai Composite fell
1.2% as China’s Xi
Jinping formally secured an unprecedented third
term as president.
In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 tumbled
2.2% — continuing the selloff
on Wall Street that saw declines led by bank stocks on contagion worries
related to Silicon
Valley Bank. South Korea’s Kospi lost
1.2% and the Kosdaq fell 2.4%.
The Nikkei 225 in
Japan shed 1.%3 and the Topix lost 1.6% as Bank of Japan held its interest
rates at -0.1%, widely in line with expectations in a Reuters poll.
Japan’s parliament approved Kazuo
Ueda as the next Bank of Japan governor, Kyodo reported — current governor Haruhiko Kuroda
chaired his last policy meeting before his term ends on April 8.
Overnight in the
U.S., stocks tumbled Thursday, with the S&P 500
closing 1.8% lower and the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed more than 500
points as investors braced for a key payroll report Friday that could shape the
direction of interest rates.
CNBC Daily Open:
Markets sold off before the monthly U.S. jobs report
- Markets are
holding their breath for Friday’s big payroll report.
- Economists expect
the United States to have added 225,000 in new jobs in
February, the unemployment rate to remain at a 54-year low of 3.4% and
hourly earnings to rise by 4.8% year over year. If their forecast is
right, it will increase chances of a half-point rate hike from the Federal
Reserve.
- U.S.
stocks had a bad Thursday: all three major indexes fell, with the banking
sector in the S&P 500 doing especially badly. European
markets traded lower, but not as drastically. The pan-European
Stoxx-600 edged lower by 0.19%, helped by a 0.58% increase in
food and beverage stocks.
- Cryptocurrency
prices fell after Silvergate
Bank announced its liquidation. As of publication time, Bitcoin
dropped 8.04% to $20,291, and Ether lost 8.12% to trade at $1,430.56.
Crypto businesses can still transact with Signature Bank, but the company
is planning to limit its crypto exposure.
- The
U.S. has managed to persuade
the Netherlands to restrict exports on semiconductor
components to China. The Netherlands is home to ASML, a company behind
machines crucial to manufacturing advanced semiconductors.
---- SBV Financial, parent of tech-focused Silicon Valley Bank,
plunged 60.41% after the company announced it was raising more than $2 billion
in new capital to offset losses. Regional banks got slammed by the news. For
instance, PacWest Bancorp sank 25.45%, a 52-week low, and First Republic Bank
dropped 16.51% to trade at a 3-year low. Major banks weren’t spared: Bank of
America and Wells Fargo both fell by more than 6%.
Those losses pushed
down the S&P financial sector 4.1% to give it its worst day since June 2020.
Unsurprisingly, the S&P ended the day 1.85% lower. The other two major
indexes didn’t fare any better. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.66% and
the Nasdaq Composite sank 2.05%.
There was a glimmer
of good news for investors worried that the Federal Reserve might intensify
rate hikes. Initial jobless claims for the week ended March 4 hit 211,000, the
highest since Dec. 24, while continuing claims were up 69,000 to a one-year
high of 1.72 million. In combination with yesterday’s data on layoffs in
December rising and wage growth decelerating in February, these data points
suggest the labor market might finally be cooling.
More
CNBC
Daily Open: Markets sold off before the monthly U.S. jobs report
Silicon
Valley Bank scrambles to reassure clients after 60% stock wipe-out
March 10, 2023 2:49 AM GMT
March 9 (Reuters)
- SVB Financial Group (SIVB.O) scrambled on Thursday to
reassure its venture capital clients their money was safe after a capital raise
led to its stock collapsing 60% and contributed to wiping out over $80 billion
in value from bank shares.
SVB,
which does business as Silicon Valley Bank, launched a $1.75 billion share sale on
Wednesday to shore up its balance sheet. It said in an investor prospectus it
needed the proceeds to plug a $1.8 billion hole caused by the sale of a $21
billion loss-making bond portfolio consisting mostly of U.S. Treasuries. The
portfolio was yielding it an average 1.79% return, far below the current
10-year Treasury yield of around 3.9%.
Investors in
SVB's stock fretted over whether the capital raise would be sufficient given
the deteriorating fortunes of many technology startups that the bank serves. The
company's stock collapsed to its lowest level since 2016, and after the market
closed shares slid another 26% in extended trade.
SVB's
CEO Gregory Becker has been calling clients to assure them their money with the
bank is safe, according to two people familiar with the matter.
Some startups
have been advising their founders to pull out their money from SVB as a
precautionary measure, the sources added. One of them is Peter Thiel's Founders
Fund, according to one of the sources.
One
San Francisco-based startup told Reuters they successfully wired all their
funds out of SVB on Thursday afternoon, and the funds had appeared in their
other bank account as a "pending" incoming wire by 4 pm Pacific Time
on Thursday.
However, the
Information publication reported the bank told four clients that transfers
could be delayed.
SVB
did not respond to multiple requests for comment.
A crucial lender for
early-stage businesses, SVB is the banking partner for nearly half of U.S.
venture-backed technology and healthcare companies that listed on stock markets
in 2022.
More
Silicon
Valley Bank scrambles to reassure clients after 60% stock wipe-out | Reuters
China’s Xi gains
unprecedented third term as president
BEIJING — Chinese leader Xi Jinping gained
an unprecedented third term as president of the country on Friday.
Xi was widely expected to stay on
as president in this month’s largely ceremonial parliamentary meeting, known as
the “Two Sessions.” The annual gathering marks the meetings of an advisory
group and a legislature, the National People’s Congress.
Delegates to the congress on Friday
also formally reappointed Xi as chairman of the Central Military Commission.
Xi
rose through China’s political ranks, becoming president in 2013 and
abolishing term limits in 2018.
At the Chinese Communist Party’s
20th National Congress in October, Xi
consolidated his control of the ruling party by filling the
highest circle of leadership with loyalists.
Zhao Leji, a member
of that core group who’s overseen party discipline, on Friday formally became
the chairman of the National People’s Congress’ standing committee.
After twice-a-decade
party congresses, top leaders of the Chinese Communist Party then go on to fill
government positions such as president and premier.
Delegates are set to
approve China’s new premier on Saturday.
Xi is scheduled to
speak at the parliamentary meeting’s closing ceremony on Monday. The new
premier is set to speak with the press later that day.
More
China's
Xi gains unprecedented third term as president (cnbc.com)
Next, more worrying news from China. A blip or the start of global deflation taking hold? Hope for the best but prepare for the worst.
China Exports Continue Slump in
Jan-Feb
Exports
dropped for a 4th straight month amidst continued weakness in foreign demand,
according to China’s General Administration of Customs.
Chinese exports dropped 6.8% from
a year earlier to $506.3 billion in January-February 2023 combined, according to China’s General Administration
of Customs. It was an improvement over December’s 10.1% decline and
compared with market consensus of a 9.4% decline.
Adding to government worries that an international
downturn will weigh on the country’s recovery, exports were down for a fourth
straight month amid a continued weakness in foreign demand, the administration
said.
Sales fell for unwrought aluminum and products
(-14.8%) and rare earths (-5.7%), but increased for refined products (74.2%)
and steel products (49%).
Exports to the United States dropped 21.8%, while
those to the European Union and Japan fell 12.3% and 1.6%, respectively. Sales
to Association of Southeast Asian Nations were up 9%, while sales to Russia
rose 19.8%.
In
November, Chinese industrial production and retail sales also fell well short of expectations.
China Exports Continue Slump in Jan-Feb - Modern Distribution Management (mdm.com)
Finally,
more on so you really, really, really want an Electric Vehicle.
The true impact of winter on electric car performance revealed: New test shows plummeting temperatures can slash battery range by up to a THIRD
When temperatures plummet, so can the official battery
range of electric cars
New study reveals the worst EVs in a controlled test
missed quoted range by 33%
We explain why EVs lose range and are slower to charge
during Britain's winters
If you're thinking
about buying an electric car, you need to know that they do not like Britain's
chilly winters and when temperatures drop they will not perform to the levels
quoted.
That's according
to a new study published this week - just as parts of the UK have seen degrees
plummet and the arrival of snow.
It found
real-world ranges of popular electric vehicles (EVs) can fall by up to a third
when it's particularly cold outside.
We explain why
electric cars don't perform so well in winter conditions.
A review of 12 battery-powered
cars on sale in Britain today found that the worst fell 32.8 per cent shy of
its claimed driving range on a full charge in winter conditions.
The least
impressive performer among the selection of EVs was China's new Ora Funky Cat,
which starts from £31,995 in the UK.
The study -
conducted by consumer magazine What Car? - found it could only go for 130 miles
before the battery ran flat. That compares to an 'official' figure of 193
miles, which is based on mandatory laboratory tests of every vehicle before
they hit showrooms.
Other poor performers in winter include the Renault
Megane E-Tech, of which two versions were tested by What Car?.
The plug-in French hatchback was found to fall between 30
and 32 per cent below the claimed battery range in the controlled cold-weather
tests.
Another notable EVs tested is the MG4 EV - the cheapest
family-size electric car on the market today with prices starting from £26,995.
It has an official range of 270 miles, though when
tested by What Car? in winter temperatures was found to run out of juice after
only 196 miles - that's a shortfall of 27.6 per cent.
Volkswagen's
new retro ID.Buzz MPV, which
costs from £58,044 in UK showrooms, should go for 255 miles on a full battery
but completed only 196 miles during What Car?'s winter test. That's the
equivalent of a decline in range of almost a quarter (24.8 per cent).
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Morning
Bid: Is China exporting deflation?
March 9, 2023 5:33 AM GMT
---- Factory-gate prices stopped falling in China last month,
but did not rise and in annual terms remain negative - a welcome piece of news
on Thursday for Western central bankers who are starting to run into difficulty
in heading off sticky inflation.
Relief
wasn't immediate, as the figures were tinged by doubt on the robustness of
China's consumption rebound, with inflation in the country also at its slowest
in a year.
But
with several months' data now published since the end of China's restrictive
zero-COVID-19 stance, there's some weight behind analysts' contention that the reopening of
the world's second-biggest economy won't set off a new inflationary pulse.
Unemployment
and the lack of stimulus handouts are widely expected to keep the temperature
of local demand in check, while a global slowdown is also likely to cool price
pressure on exports.
That's likely welcomed since
analysts are making their latest upward revisions to U.S. and European interest
rate expectations and do not need another inflationary shock from China's
reopening.
---- As some of the dust
settles on U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's hawkish testimony at
Congress, Fed funds futures steadied, perhaps a signal economists - who have
been jacking interest rate forecasts toward a peak near 5.75% or 6% - may
finally have done enough.
More
Morning Bid: Is
China exporting deflation? | Reuters
Column:
Argentina’s catastrophic drought clips recovery in S. American corn, soy output
March
9, 2023 9:30 AM GMT
NAPERVILLE,
Illinois, March 8 (Reuters) - Corn and soybean production was supposed to
rebound in South America this year after drought claimed crops in both Brazil
and Argentina last year, but the situation has grown far worse in Argentina,
limiting recovery in tight global supplies.
The effects are
slightly different by crop. South American corn production may be lower this
year, but global stocks-to-use (SU) is still seen rising from last year, which
was originally expected. Although the continent’s exporters will grow more
soybeans this year than last, global SU is set to fall.
This month is the
second in a row where the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s crop estimates for
Argentina came in below trade expectations, but Wednesday’s results were far
more shocking than last month’s.
The agency
slashed Argentina’s 2022-23 soybean crop to 33 million tonnes from 41 million
last month, well below the average trade guess of 36.65 million. That cut of
nearly 20% is USDA’s largest monthly reduction for Argentina’s soybeans since
before 2009, perhaps ever.
USDA chopped
Argentina’s corn harvest to 40 million tonnes from 47 million last month, below
the trade guess of 43.4 million. Argentina is the top exporter of soybean
products and is a major corn exporter, but it is caught up in its worst drought
in about six decades.
Although USDA on
Wednesday made more aggressive reductions than expected, other agencies and
analysts have already been discussing similarly small harvest sizes.
These losses
would be historic for Argentina, but there is a chance the harvests shrink even
further as hot and dry weather remain in near-term forecasts. As of now, USDA’s
Argentina soy crop estimate is 35% below the agency’s original peg of 51
million tonnes.
In 2009 and 2018,
both terrible drought years, final soy production landed 33% and 34%,
respectively, below USDA’s original outlook.
USDA’s Argentina
corn number is down 27% from its initial forecast, compared with initial-final
losses of 34% in 2009 and 20% in 2018. But tonnage-wise, this year’s corn
shortfall is worse, already down 15 million tonnes from initial ideas.
Initial-final corn losses in 2009 and 2018 both totaled 8 million tonnes.
More
Column: Argentina’s catastrophic drought clips recovery in S. American corn, soy output | Reuters
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Cabinet Office told Hancock ‘to tone down China Covid lab leak
claims’
9 March 2023
Matt Hancock [UK
former Health Minister] was instructed by the Cabinet Office to
tone claims in his memoir that the Covid-19 pandemic originated from a
laboratory leak in China,
according to leaked correspondence.
Officials are said to have
warned it would “cause problems” if he repeated the claim in his Pandemic
Diaries and insisted he must make clear he was not reflecting the
government’s view.
The changes to the book were
made after he submitted the manuscript to the Cabinet Office for review
last year, according to The Telegraph – a procedure all former
ministers are obliged to follow.
The newspaper reported that Mr
Hancock had wanted to say that “given how cagey the Chinese have been” their
official version of events should be treated with “considerable scepticism”.
“Global fear of the Chinese must not
get in the way of a full investigation into what happened,” he wrote in the original
manuscript.
In response, the Cabinet Office wrote
to Mr Hancock: “This is highly sensitive and would cause problems if released.”
The department added: “Must be
clearer that it is supposition rather than revealing any confidential
information received from inside government. Should also be clear that this is
not HMG views or beliefs.”
It also
expressed concern about proposed comparisons in the book between the Wuhan Institute
of Virology – in the city where the virus first emerged – and the Ministry of
Defence’s research laboratories at Porton Down.
Mr
Hancock originally wrote it was “just too much of a coincidence” that the
pandemic started in the same city as the institute.
“The
only plausible alternative is that the virus was brought to Wuhan to be
studied, and then escaped,” he wrote in one passage.
More
Cabinet Office told Hancock ‘to tone down China Covid
lab leak claims’ (msn.com)
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Centers for Disease Control
Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The
Spectator Covid-19
data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Water purification membrane generates electricity as
it filters
Loz Blain March 07, 2023
A team from the Korea
Institute of Science and Technology (KIST) and Myongji University, both located
in Seoul, has published a new paper describing an "electricity generation
and purification membrane for water recycling."
The team
claims it can reject more than 95% of contaminants smaller than one hundred
millionth of a meter in size, including heavy metal particles and the
microplastics that are now found in distressing quantities in rainwater from Antarctica to the Tibetan Plateau, rendering it unsafe to drink. It seems
to work regardless of the acidity of the water source as well, performing well
across a pH range of 1-10.
The membrane is a
two-layer sandwich, the top layer being a conductive polymer, and the bottom
being a porous filter. As contaminated water is poured onto the top layer, it
moves laterally across the membrane, creating a cross-flow of ions that can be
harvested as an electrical current using electrodes at either end of the
membrane.
While the study
claims the membrane showed "high energy generation performance" in
experimental testing, the lab prototype is small and so are the corresponding
power figures. The study abstract reports a maximum power level of just 16.44
microwatts, and a maximum of 15.16 millijoules of energy generated over an
unspecified time period. And the power generation is continuous – just 10
microliters of water was enough to generate electricity for more than three
hours.
The team is now working on
follow-up research to scale up its work to factory-relevant size, a press
release claiming that "since the membrane can be manufactured using a
simple printing process without size restrictions, it has a high potential to
be commercialized due to low manufacturing costs and processing time."
Lead author Ji-Soo Sang sees
the material having potential as a next-generation renewable energy source.
"As a novel technology that can solve water shortage problem and produce
eco-friendly energy simultaneously," he says, "it also has great
potential applications in the water quality management system and emergency
power system."
The paper is published in the
journal Advanced Materials.
Water purification
membrane generates electricity as it filters (newatlas.com)
Another weekend and we close
with “as goes America so goes the world.”
When America goes off the rails, it usually does so in spades ala
McCarthyism, although lately they’ve had a hard time keeping up with Trudeau’s
Canada, and the vaccine fanatics in Australia and New Zealand, now ruing that
vaccine fanaticism.
Watch
through to the end when even AG Merrick Garland is outraged by the FBI.
Have a
great Spring weekend everyone.
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