Baltic Dry Index. 1327 +29 Brent Crude 82.62
Spot Gold 1815 US 2 Year Yield 5.05 +0.05
Coronavirus
Cases 01/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,103
Coronavirus Cases 09/03/23 World 680,070,777
Deaths 6,808,373
Chinese Ports Full of Empty
Containers; Foreign Investors Accelerating Withdrawal
Chinese Ports Full of Empty Containers; Foreign Investors Accelerating Withdrawal - YouTube
In the stock casinos, confusion and disbelief. Lingering disbelief that the US central bank will actually drive the US and global economy into recession. But it may have already started out in East Asia.
Watch this section’s Youtube coverage of China’s ports and stagnant manufacturing economy.
Asia-Pacific
markets mixed as China’s inflation report sees softening
UPDATED THU, MAR 9 2023 12:38 AM
EST
Asia-Pacific shares were mixed on Thursday as
China saw softening in its inflation print in February. The economy’s consumer
price index grew 1% year on year, lower than a 1.9% increase expected by
Reuters.
The Shanghai Composite shed
0.31% and the Shenzhen Component lost
0.18%. Hong Kong’s Hang
Seng index inched up 0.23%.
Japan’s Nikkei 225′s was
up 0.5% and the Topix climbed 0.75% as Bank of Japan kicked off its two-day
monetary policy meeting.
Governor Haruhiko Kuroda will
conclude his final meeting on Friday, and investors are closely watching for
any changes that could take markets by surprise. Economists polled by Reuters
are widely expecting to see no changes in its ultra-dovish monetary policy.
In South Korea, the Kospi slipped 0.38%
while the Kosdaq lost 1%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 added
0.11%.
Overnight in
the U.S., major stock indexes were mixed as traders parsed stronger
than expected economic data, sparking concerns of bigger rate
increases following Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s congressional speech.
More
Asia-Pacific
markets, Bank of Japan, Kuroda, Fed, China inflation (cnbc.com)
European markets
head for lower open as investors weigh economic outlook
UPDATED THU, MAR 9 2023 12:17 AM EST
European markets are heading for a lower open
Thursday as investors digested more comments from U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman
Jerome Powell.
Powell reiterated
his warning message to lawmakers that the central bank may raise interest rates
higher than previously anticipated. However, he said he hasn’t made
up his mind about what the central bank will do regarding interest rates when
it meets later in March.
U.S.
stock futures were flat on Wednesday night, while
Asia-Pacific shares were mixed on Thursday as the Bank of Japan
kicked off its two-day monetary policy meeting, with investors looking out for
any policy changes that could accompany BOJ governor Haruhiko Kuroda’s final
meeting.
China’s consumer
inflation eases in February
China’s consumer
price index for February came in at 1% year on year, coming off
from an annual increase of 2.1% in January.
The figure is lower
than Reuters’ forecast of a 1.9% increase. Prices of food, alcohol and tobacco
increased by 2.1% year on year.
China’s producer price index for February
declined 1.4% compared to a year ago, deepening a contraction of 0.8% in
January.
European markets live updates: stocks, data, news and earnings (cnbc.com)
No exit ramp for
Fed’s Powell until he creates a recession, economist says
The U.S. Federal Reserve cannot
disrupt its cycle of interest rate increases until the nation enters a
recession, according to TS Lombard Chief U.S. Economist Steven Blitz.
“There is no exit from this until
he [Fed Chair Jerome Powell] does create a recession, ’til unemployment goes
up, and that is when the Fed rates will stop being hiked,” Blitz told CNBC’s
“Squawk Box Europe” on Wednesday.
He stressed that the Fed lacks
clarity on the ceiling of interest rate increases in the absence of such an
economic slowdown.
“They have no idea where the top rate is, because
they have no idea where inflation settles down without a recession.”
Powell
told lawmakers on Tuesday that stronger-than-expected economic
data in recent weeks suggests the “ultimate level of interest rates is likely
to be higher than previously anticipated,” as the central bank looks to drag
inflation back down to Earth.
The Federal Open Market Committee’s
next monetary policy meeting on March 21 and 22 will be critical for global
stock markets, with investors closely watching whether policymakers opt for an
interest rate hike of 25 or 50 basis points.
Market expectations for the
terminal Fed funds rate were around 5.1% in December, but have risen steadily.
Goldman Sachs lifted its terminal rate target range forecast to 5.5-5.75% on
Tuesday in light of Powell’s testimony, in line with current market pricing
according to CME Group data.
More
No exit ramp for Fed's Powell until he creates a recession, economist says (cnbc.com)
In other news, the world is slowly moving on from a weaponised US dollar. While transition won’t be fast or easy, trillion dollar fiat dollar deficits forever are now taking their toll.
India's
oil deals with Russia dent decades-old dollar dominance
March
8, 2023 5:12 AM GMT
NEW DELHI/LONDON, March 8 (Reuters) -
U.S.-led international sanctions on Russia have begun to erode the dollar's
decades-old dominance of international oil trade as most deals with India -
Russia's top outlet for seaborne crude - have been settled in other currencies.
The dollar's pre-eminence has
periodically been called into question and yet it has continued because of the
overwhelming advantages of using the most widely-accepted currency for
business.
India's oil trade, in response to the
turmoil of sanctions and the Ukraine war, provides the strongest evidence so
far of a shift into other currencies that could prove lasting.
The country is the world's number three
importer of oil and Russia became its leading supplier after Europe shunned
Moscow's supplies following its invasion of Ukraine begun in February last
year.
After a coalition opposed to the war
imposed an oil price cap on Russia on Dec. 5, Indian customers have paid for
most Russian oil in non-dollar currencies, including the United Arab
Emirates dirham and
more recently the Russian rouble, multiple oil trading and banking sources
said.
More
India's oil deals with Russia dent decades-old dollar dominance | Reuters
Finally, in cryptoland yet another firm closes down.
Crypto-focused
bank Silvergate is shutting operations and liquidating after market meltdown
Silvergate
Capital,
a central lender to the crypto industry, said
on Wednesday that it’s winding down operations and liquidating
its bank. The stock plunged more than 36% in after-hours trading.
Silvergate has served as one of the
two main banks for crypto companies, along with New York-based Signature Bank.
Silvergate has just over $11 billion in assets, compared with over $114 billion
at Signature. Bankrupt crypto exchange FTX was a major Silvergate customer.
“In light of recent industry and regulatory
developments, Silvergate believes that an orderly wind down of Bank operations
and a voluntary liquidation of the Bank is the best path forward,” the company
said in a statement.
All deposits will be fully repaid,
according to a liquidation plan shared on Wednesday. The company didn’t say how
it plans to resolve claims against its business.
Centerview Partners will act as
Silvergate’s financial advisor and Cravath, Swaine & Moore will provide
legal services.
The liquidation comes less than a
week after Silvergate discontinued its payments platform known as the
Silvergate Exchange Network, or SEN, which was considered to be one of its core
offerings. As part of the liquidation announcement, Silvergate clarified that
all other deposit-related services remain operational as the company winds
down. Customers will be notified should there be any further changes.
Silvergate said last week it would delay
the filing of its annual 10-K for 2022 while it sorted out the
“viability” of its business. The company disclosed that the delayed filing was
partly due to an imminent regulatory crackdown, including a probe already
underway by the Department of Justice.
More
Silvergate
shutting down operations, liquidating after crypto meltdown (cnbc.com)
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
A recession indicator
just flashed its loudest warning ever as Fed Chair Powell signals higher rates
Tue, 7 March 2023 at 9:15 pm GMT
A key recession indicator flashed
its loudest warning ever after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said
benchmark rates will likely go higher than once anticipated.
The inversion between the 2-year
and 10-year Treasury yields hit a record 103.5 basis points on Tuesday,
according to Refinitiv data. It later narrowed to 102.4 basis points.
In normal economic times,
shorter-term yields are below longer-term yields. But for months, the 2- and
10-year yields have been inverted amid growing recession fears, as the Fed
continues to tighten policy to rein in inflation.
The 2-year yield currently sits
at 4.992% while the 10-year yield is 3.968%. Meanwhile, there's a 61.6% probability the Fed
will raise its benchmark rate by 50 basis points on March 22, up from 31.4% a day earlier.
More
Explainer: U.S. yield curve reaches deepest inversion since
1981: What is it telling us?
March
7, 2023 11:34 PM GMT
NEW YORK, March 7(Reuters) -
Hawkish comments by
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell helped push a closely watched part of
the U.S. Treasury yield curve to its deepest inversion since 1981 on Tuesday,
once again putting a spotlight on what many investors consider a time-honored
recession signal.
The U.S. central bank has hiked
interest rates aggressively over the last year to fight inflation that hovered
around 40-year highs and bring it down to its 2% target rate.
An inverted yield curve occurs when
yields on shorter-dated Treasuries rise above those for longer-term ones. It
suggests that while investors expect interest rates to rise in the near term,
they believe that higher borrowing costs will eventually hurt the economy,
forcing the Fed to later ease monetary policy.
The phenomenon is closely watched by
investors as it has preceded past recessions.
More
Explainer: U.S.
yield curve reaches deepest inversion since 1981: What is it telling us? |
Reuters
London businesses shelve hiring plans amid UK recession
uncertainty
March 8, 2023
London businesses are the most
reluctant to take on new staff in the UK due to uncertainty over whether the
country will eventually tip into recession, a closely watched survey out today
reveals.
The capital’s
firms are trimming intentions to expand their workforce due to concerns over a
looming drop in consumer spending amid the economic slump.
Consultancy
KPMG and the Recruitment and Employment Confederation’s (REC) permanent
employment index slid to its lowest level since October last year, down to 42.2
points last month, the lowest of any region in the UK.
The reading is far below the 50
point threshold that separates growth and contraction, meaning London companies
are hiring permanent staff at a slower pace.
February’s
reading was also a big drop from January’s 47.9 points.
Experts said
the capital’s firms are taking on part-time staff to ensure they can keep
running smoothly without baking in higher fixed costs that could hit them if
the country does slip into recession.
“As hirers
work out what variable economic forecasts might mean for their business and
staff, it makes sense that we continue to see temp billings hold up so well.
Temporary staffing ensures firms can continue to provide goods and services,
and people can grow their careers – even when the economic outlook is unclear,”
Kate Shoesmith, deputy chief executive of the REC, said.
The temporary
hiring index remained in expansionary territory at 52.2 points, although it
fell quickly from 55.2 points.
London businesses shelve hiring plans amid UK recession uncertainty (msn.com)
Covid-19 Corner
This
section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
COVID-19 More Likely Originated
in Chinese Lab Than in Nature: Former CDC Director
March 8, 2023Updated: March 8, 2023
The currently available evidence supports the
theory that COVID-19 originated in a Chinese laboratory, former U.S. Centers
for Disease Control and Prevention Director Dr. Robert Redfield told members of
Congress on March 8.
“From the earliest days of the pandemic, my view
was both theories about the origin of COVID-19 needed to be aggressively and
thoroughly examined. Based on my initial analysis of the data, I came to
believe—and I still believe today—that it indicates that COVID-19 more likely
was the result of an accidental lab leak than a result of a natural spillover
event,” Redfield, who directed the CDC during the Trump administration, said in
his prepared opening remarks to the House Select Subcommittee on the
Coronavirus Pandemic.
“This conclusion is based primarily on the biology
of the virus itself, including the rapid high infectivity for human-to-human
transmission, which would then predict rapid evolution of new variants as well
as a number of other important factors, which also include the unusual actions
in and around Wuhan in the fall of 2019, all of which I am happy to discuss
today,” Redfield added.
More
European air January
passenger traffic comes closest-ever to full COVID-19 recovery -ACI
March 8, 2023
(Reuters) -
Passenger traffic across the European airport network in January came the closest
ever to a full recovery to pre-pandemic levels, the group Airports Council
International (ACI) said on Wednesday.
The monthly
report showed passenger traffic across the European airport network increased
by 69% in January compared with the same month last year, when Omicron-related
travel restrictions halted the recovery.
When compared
with January 2019 levels, passenger traffic in 2023 stood at -11%, the best
monthly performance and thus closest to a full recovery since the start of the
COVID-19 pandemic, ACI said.
About
"42% of Europe's airports have now recovered their pre-pandemic traffic
volumes," said ACI Europe Director General Olivier Jankovec, adding the
group expects more airports "to hit the same milestone in the coming
months."
"For now, our immediate focus is on getting ready for
the peak Summer season," he added.
The EU+ Market - which includes the European Union, the UK,
Switzerland and EEA countries - led the growth with passenger traffic growing
82% in January compared with the same month last year. The highest increases
were recorded in the United Kingdom (+128%), Ireland (+115%) and Cyprus
(+111%).
Compared with pre-pandemic levels, 11 national markets achieved or
exceeded a full recovery in January, the report showed, with airports in
Portugal and Cyprus ranked first, while Slovakia, Slovenia, the Czech Republic
and Germany stood at the bottom.
More
European air
January passenger traffic comes closest-ever to full COVID-19 recovery -ACI
(msn.com)
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Centers for Disease Control
Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The
Spectator Covid-19
data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Graphene quantum dots show
promise as novel magnetic field sensors
Physicists found that speeding electrons trapped in circular loops in graphene quantum dots are highly sensitive to external magnetic fields
Date: March 6, 2023
Source: University
of California - Santa Cruz
Summary: Trapped
electrons traveling in circular loops at extreme speeds inside graphene quantum
dots are highly sensitive to external magnetic fields and could be used as
novel magnetic field sensors with unique capabilities, according to a new
study.
Electrons in graphene (an atomically
thin form of carbon) behave as if they were massless, like photons, which are
massless particles of light. Although graphene electrons do not move at the
speed of light, they exhibit the same energy-momentum relationship as photons
and can be described as "ultra-relativistic." When these electrons
are confined in a quantum dot, they travel at high velocity in circular loops
around the edge of the dot.
"These current loops create
magnetic moments that are very sensitive to external magnetic fields,"
explained Jairo Velasco Jr., associate professor of physics at UC Santa Cruz.
"The sensitivity of these current loops stems from the fact that graphene
electrons are ultra-relativistic and travel at high velocity."
Velasco is a corresponding author of
a paper on the new findings, published March 6 in Nature Nanotechnology.
His group at UC Santa Cruz used a scanning tunneling microscope (STM) to create
the quantum dots in graphene and study their properties. His collaborators on
the project include scientists at the University of Manchester, U.K., and the
National Institute for Materials Science in Japan.
"This was highly collaborative
work," Velasco said. "We did the measurements in my lab at UCSC, and
then we worked very closely with theoretical physicists at the University of
Manchester to understand and interpret our data."
The unique optical and electrical
properties of quantum dots -- which are often made of semiconductor
nanocrystals -- are due to electrons being confined within a nanoscale
structure such that their behavior is governed by quantum mechanics. Because
the resulting electronic structure is like that of atoms, quantum dots are
often called "artificial atoms." Velasco's approach creates quantum
dots in different forms of graphene using an electrostatic "corral"
to confine graphene's speeding electrons.
"Part of what makes this
interesting is the fundamental physics of this system and the opportunity to
study atomic physics in the ultra-relativistic regime," he said. "At
the same time, there are interesting potential applications for this as a new
type of quantum sensor that can detect magnetic fields at the nano scale with
high spatial resolution."
Additional
applications are also possible, according to co-first author Zhehao Ge, a UCSC
graduate student in physics. "The findings in our work also indicate that
graphene quantum dots can potentially host a giant persistent current (a
perpetual electric current without the need of an external power source) in a
small magnetic field," Ge said. "Such current can potentially be used
for quantum simulation and quantum computation."
More
"There is no means of avoiding the final
collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only
whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of voluntary abandonment of
further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the
currency system involved."
Ludwig von Mises.
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