Baltic Dry Index. 990 +55 Brent Crude 83.89
Spot Gold 1833 US 2 Year Yield 4.81 +0.03
Coronavirus
Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,103
Coronavirus Cases 01/03/23 World 679,997,652
Deaths 6,800,335
March 1, 1565 Portuguese soldier Estácio de Sá founds the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
A dismal month over, can China’s rebound save the global economy? But will Biden’s tech war on China, plus real war on Russia, save global recession from a soft landing?
We are working through dangerous times as the Great Nixonian Error of Fiat Money nears its end.
Hong Kong stocks
rise 3%; China’s factory activity reading hits highest level since 2012
UPDATED WED, MAR 1 2023 12:19 AM
EST
Asia-Pacific markets mostly rose as investors
digested a slew of key economic data across the region. China’s National Bureau
of Statistics also reported its official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index rose
to 52.6 in February, the highest since April 2012.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index rose
3.37% – leading gains in the region and the Hang Seng Tech index climbed 5.04%.
In mainland China, the Shenzhen
Component rose 1.02% and the Shanghai Composite also
gained 0.9%.
In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 was
up marginally after GDP for the fourth quarter of 2022 came in at 0.5%, marking
its fifth straight quarter expansion.
In Japan, the Nikkei 225 climbed
0.17% and the Topix was up marginally as factory activity in February shrank at
its fastest pace in two and a half years, a private survey showed.
Private surveys for India’s manufacturing
activity are scheduled to be released later today.
South Korean markets are closed
to observe a holiday as the nation saw a narrowed trade deficit for the month
of February.
Overnight in the U.S., all three
major averages closed lower to round out a tough month, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average leading
losses by losing over 230 points or 0.7%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite lost
about 2.61% and 1.11% in February, respectively, but are still higher year to
date.
Asia
markets: PMI numbers, China, Japan, Australia, manufacturing PMI (cnbc.com)
Stock futures
slip after investors wrap up a losing February: Live updates
UPDATED TUE, FEB 28 2023 6:59 PM
EST
Stock futures inched down as investors came off
a losing month.
Futures
tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost
70 points, or 0.2%. S&P 500
futures slid
0.3%, while Nasdaq-100 futures dipped
0.4%.
The moves come as Wall Street closed
out a losing February for stocks. The Dow led
the averages down, closing the month down 4.19%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite shed
2.61% and 1.11%, respectively.
February’s slide helped drag the
Dow into negative territory for the year, while the other two indexes are still
holding onto their gains.
The decline marked a turn from
January’s rally and was prompted in part by the bombshell
jobs data that came in the first week of the month, according
to Keith Buchanan, senior portfolio manager at Globalt Investments. Nonfarm
payrolls increased by 517,000 in January, according to the report, which
crushed the 187,000 estimated by economists polled by Dow Jones.
“There was a turning point that
we can all point to,” Buchanan said. “The market had a moment where
participants realized that perhaps the labor market is tight enough to continue
to set the stage for increasing hawkishness.”
Investors will watch for economic
data on construction and manufacturing coming after the market opens Wednesday.
Consumer-focused companies including Lowe’s and Kohl’s are
set to report before the bell. Technology names Salesforce, Okta and Snowflake are
reporting after the market closes.
Stock
market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)
Next,
China’s economy, helped by the end of Covid lockdowns and cheap oil from
Russia, roars back. But will it be enough to save the global economy from
recession?
China’s factory
activity grows further, marks its highest reading in nearly 11 years
China’s factory activity for February bounced
further into expansion territory, according to data from the National Bureau of
Statistics.
The official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index rose
to 52.6 in February – above the 50-point mark that separates growth from
contraction. That marks the highest reading since April 2012, when it hit 53.5.
February’s PMI reading is also
higher than the 50.1 reported for January and above expectations of 50.5,
according to economists surveyed by Reuters.
Non-manufacturing PMI also grew further to 56.3
from January’s print of 54.4, when it saw a sharp improvement backed by a
recovery in services and construction activity.
The Chinese onshore
yuan stood at 6.9325 against the U.S. dollar while the offshore yuan
strengthened 0.15% to 6.9480 against the greenback.
China Beige Book’s
chief economist Derek Scissors told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” he expects to see
an improvement in consumption later this year – buoyed by any announcements
from the upcoming National People’s Congress meetings.
“I think April’s
really the time that consumers will take cues from the March National People’s
Congress meetings and the announcements made there,” said Scissors.
He added, “In April,
we should see where the course of Chinese consumption is going. It will be
better than last year, but it won’t be much better and the people relying on
that may be disappointed.”
China’s National
People’s Congress kicks off on Sunday.
China's
factory activity grows further, marks its highest reading in nearly 11 years
(cnbc.com)
In crypto fraud land, yet another FTX
bigwig pleads guilty. Is anyone really surprised?
Yesterday was the last day bent
politicians and celebrities had to return SBF’s bribes without incurring
interest penalties. No word yet on who, if anyone, returned the stolen cash.
FTX
ex-engineering chief Nishad Singh pleads guilty to criminal charges
FTX ex-engineering head Nishad Singh pleaded
guilty to criminal charges in New York on Tuesday, becoming the latest member
of Sam Bankman-Fried’s former leadership team to agree to a deal.
The six charges against Singh
include conspiracy to commit securities fraud, conspiracy to commit money
laundering and conspiracy to violate campaign finance laws. FTX spiraled
into bankruptcy in November after the crypto exchange, founded
by Bankman-Fried, couldn’t meet customers’ withdrawal demands.
“Today’s guilty plea underscores
once again that the crimes at FTX were vast in scope and consequence,”
Manhattan U.S. Attorney Damian Williams said in a statement. “They rocked our
financial markets with a multibillion dollar fraud. And they corrupted our
politics with tens of millions of dollars in illegal straw campaign
contributions. These crimes demand swift and certain justice and that is exactly
what we are seeking in the Southern District of New York.”
The Securities and Exchange Commission, as well as
the Commodity Futures Trading Commission both filed related civil complaints
against Singh on Tuesday. The SEC said in a release that Singh is
cooperating with the agency’s ongoing investigation, and he has separately
agreed to settle with the CFTC.
Two of the criminal charges against
Singh are related to wire fraud and another is conspiracy to commit commodities
fraud.
“Nishad is deeply sorry for his
role in this and has accepted responsibility for his actions,” lawyers for
Singh said in a statement. “He wants to do everything he can to make things
right for victims, including by assisting the government to the best of his
ability in this case.”
Prior to Singh’s guilty plea, FTX
co-founder Gary Wang and former Alameda Research co-CEO Caroline Ellison both pleaded
guilty in December to federal charges in the Southern District
of New York.
More
FTX
ex-engineering head Nishad Singh pleads guilty to criminal charges (cnbc.com)
Finally,
yet another country on the brink of failure and collapse as the Great Nixonian
Error of fiat money nears its end.
South Africa on the
verge of 'collapse' as blackouts threaten all-out civil war
February
27, 2023
South Africa is
currently on edge of a "civil war" like unrest, amid warnings that
the country could be facing rolling blackouts and the possibility of a total
power grid failure. As the fears of mass rioting grow, Western embassies
including the US and Australia have urged their citizens to stock up on
"several days worth" of food and water, advising them to be on high
alert during the extended blackouts that are sweeping the country during its
energy crisis. The country has been grappling with frequent six-hour-long power
cuts, creating a major energy crisis that has sparked mass protests and civil
unrest.
Earlier
this month, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa declared a state of
disaster with immediate effect, as the country faced an acute electricity
shortage.
As a
result, state-owned power company Eskom has had to issue rolling blackout
events known as "load shedding", which have lasted up to 12 hours in
some instances, news.com.au reports.
Earlier
this month, Australia's Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade said:
"Rolling blackouts (load shedding) are occurring throughout South Africa
which are affecting private residences, businesses, municipal lighting, traffic
lights and hotels.Link
"Blackouts can also affect water availability, internet
connectivity, mobile phone network coverage, fuel availability, residential
security features, and food supply."
They also warned
that these power outages could increase crime, saying "For example,
traffic jams due to power outages provide opportunities for smash-and-grab
crime.
"Residences
can be targeted when lights are out and security systems are not functioning.
Ongoing conditions have led to increased protests and demonstrations, and in
some cases, civil unrest, throughout the country."
Meanwhile, the
US Embassy advised its citizens to "maintain 72-hours' worth of supplies
at home by stockpiling non-perishable food and 3 litres of drinking water per
person per day, and medicines and first aid supplies."
---- They also warned
US citizens against demonstrations, urging them to "exercise caution if
unexpectedly in the vicinity of large gatherings or protests."
Last month,
the US government warned representatives of large US-based companies operating
in South Africa to prepare for a total collapse of the power grid, tech
publication MyBroadband reported.
During a
meeting, US government officials noted that while a total power grid failure
was unlikely, it was "something we need to start thinking about".
They warned
that in case of a total collapse, it could take up to "six to 14 days to
restart the power grid," adding that "there are a few feeder lines
from other countries, but not enough to help with a black start
situation."
The official warned that
if the grid collapsed, mass looting and civil unrest could follow, quoting an
unnamed individual who said, "What's left after a blackout would be what
was left after a civil war."
More
South Africa on
the verge of 'collapse' as blackouts threaten all-out civil war (msn.com)
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Rising
inflation in France and Spain fuels fears of more ECB rate increases
Persistent price pressures in leading economies drive rise in
eurozone governments’ borrowing costs
February 28, 2023
Inflation
rebounded in France and Spain in February, sending European governments’
borrowing costs up as doubts increased over how quickly the European Central
Bank will stop raising interest rates.
French
consumer prices rose 7.2 per cent in the year to February, driven to the
highest rate since the euro was launched in 1999 by faster increases in food
and services prices. Economists polled by Reuters had expected French inflation
to stagnate at January’s 7 per cent level.
Spanish
consumer price growth in February accelerated to 6.1 per cent, up from 5.9 per
cent in January and above economists’ expectations for a fall to 5.5 per cent,
despite the government cutting food taxes in January.
European government bond prices fell in response on Tuesday, sending the yield
on Germany’s rate-sensitive two-year bond up 0.08 percentage points to 3.15 per
cent, its highest level since the 2008 financial crisis.
The
figures suggest eurozone inflation may prove more persistent than hoped, ahead
of the publication of February price growth data for the bloc on Thursday,
which economists expect to show a slowdown to 8.1 per cent, from 8.6 per cent
in January.
“There are clear upside risks for euro
inflation in February,” said Jörg Krämer, chief economist at German lender
Commerzbank.
Sharp drops in wholesale energy prices after a mild winter and reduced fuel
consumption have helped eurozone inflation to fall rapidly from its October
record of 10.6 per cent. However, it is unclear how quickly price growth will
slow to the ECB’s 2 per cent target.
The ECB has committed to a further half
percentage point increase in its deposit rate at its meeting on March 16. That
would take the benchmark rate to 3 per cent, up from minus 0.5 per cent last
July, and swap markets are pricing in further increases to just below 4 per
cent by the end of the year.
ECB
chief economist Philip Lane said on Tuesday there was still a strong case for
another half percentage point rate rise in March even though “there’s
significant evidence that monetary policy is kicking in” and forward-looking
indicators show price pressures cooling.
“We’re all signed up to the criterion that sufficient progress in underlying
inflation is important,” Lane told Reuters, suggesting the ECB will need to see
slowing price growth in goods and services as well as energy and food before it
stops raising rates.
Even
then, he said, it would be “quite a long-lasting period, a fair number of
quarters” before it cut rates. French inflation was mainly driven up by faster
growth in food and services prices, while energy inflation fell despite a 15
per cent rise in the regulated electricity tariff this year. The country’s core
inflation rate, which includes processed foods, rose from 5.6 per cent to 5.8
per cent. The month-on-month growth in French consumer prices accelerated to
0.9 per cent, up from 0.4 per cent in January.
Melanie Debono, an economist at research group Pantheon Macroeconomics, said
higher Spanish inflation was “surprising” after Madrid introduced a €10bn
package of temporary tax cuts on staples, including bread, pasta, dairy
products, fruit and vegetables.
More
London
businesses sweat over UK recession risk as experts warn on cost of living
pressures
TUESDAY 28 FEBRUARY 2023 6:00 AM
Uncertainty over whether the UK
economy will tip into recession this year has led London businesses to sweat
over their finances this year, a closely watched survey out today reveals.
Optimism among the capital’s companies slid 19 points in February to 18 per cent, arresting a steady upward rise in confidence, according to Lloyds Bank’s business barometer.
Concerns about whether the wider UK can withstand a much-tipped spending slowdown from households and businesses sparked by inflation eating into their finances pushed confidence lower.
London firms’ confidence in the UK
economy slid 34 points this year to minus one per cent, while optimism in their
own business prospects dropped four points to 37 per cent.
February’s slide has brought the
capital’s businesses’ confidence levels broadly in line with the countrywide
average, which edged one point lower to 21 per cent.
Becci Wicks, regional director for
London at Lloyds Bank Commercial Banking, said: “Despite the dip in confidence,
London firms have optimism in their own business prospects, something that will
help shape their growth plans for the year ahead.”
A recent batch of
better-than-expected data has raised hopes that the UK may avoid a much-warned
recession this year, helping to gradually lift business confidence over the
past few months.
“Business confidence has lost a
little momentum this month, following the strong gains seen recently,” Hann-Ju
Ho, senior economist for Lloyds Bank Commercial Banking, said.
“While inflation
appears to be tapering, pressures on consumers will need to ease further to
help make it a more stable environment for businesses to operate.”
Analytics firm GfK
last Friday revealed consumer confidence leapt seven points to minus 38 this
month, smashing experts’ forecasts.
More
London businesses sweat over UK recession risk (cityam.com)
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Xylitol Nasal Spray Prevents SARS-CoV-2
Infection
Feb 26 2023
The sophisticated American consumer has grown accustomed
to the gold standard for drug and health products—the prospective randomized,
double-blind, placebo-controlled trial (RCT). Operation Warp Speed (OWS) was
supposed to be a churning mill of large RCTs to help the nation understand what
conclusively is effective in the prevention and treatment of COVID-19.
Unfortunately, after three years, OWS has delivered
failed products (remdesivir, baricitinib, molnupiravir, COVID-19 vaccines) and
small inconclusive trials of products that doctors have found effective in
practice, including off-target generic antivirals and anticoagulants. OWS did
not test simple, affordable, available prevention strategies. Fortunately, such
RCTs were done outside of the United States and have brought us important
findings.
Balmforth, et al., conducted a prospective double-blind,
placebo-controlled trial of a xylitol-based nasal spray in
the prevention of SARS-CoV-2 infection in exposed healthcare workers in two
hospitals in Uttar Pradesh, India. Xylitol is known to have anti-infective and
anti-inflammatory properties and is used in XLEAR nasal spray and
anti-infective chewing gum to prevent dental caries.
Balmforth found that SARS-CoV-2 infection confirmed by
serology was 71 percent lower with xylitol compared to placebo [36 cases (13.1
percent) vs. 97 cases (34.5 percent); odds ratio [OR] 0.29 (95 percent CI;
0.18–0.45), p < 0.0001]. Fewer clinical symptoms were also seen in the test
group [57 cases (17.6 percent) vs. 112 cases (34.6 percent); OR 0.40, (95
percent CI; 0.27–0.59), p < 0.0001].
No harmful effects were associated with xylitol. A
smaller study of xylitol nasal spray in mild COVID-19 cases demonstrated that
persistent loss of smell may be eliminated with xylitol nasal spray during the
acute congestion phase.
More
Xylitol Nasal Spray Prevents SARS-CoV-2 Infection (theepochtimes.com)
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Centers for Disease Control
Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The
Spectator Covid-19
data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
BAE unveils the Strix, a fascinating, tail-sitting
X-wing VTOL UAV
Loz Blain February 27, 2023
BAE Systems has unveiled a fascinating new
autonomous, hybrid, VTOL UAV for military use. The STRIX, developed in
Australia, folds to fit inside a shipping container, and is capable of carrying
160 kg (353 lb) of payload over 800 km (500 miles).
The STRIX was unveiled this
morning at Australia's Avalon Air Show, in front of air force chiefs from
around the world – with the notable exceptions, according to the ABC, of
Russian and Chinese delegates, who have been excluded from the conference.
BAE Systems
has developed the aircraft in conjunction with Perth-based company Innovaero.
It describes the Strix as a "hybrid, tandem-wing, multi-domain and
multi-role UAS," capable of performing missions including air-to-ground
strike, persistent intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance, or
potentially serving as a "loyal wingman" – style force multiplier to
accompany military helicopters.
The airframe is a
nuggety design, with medium-width wings at the front and rear. The forward
wings are tilted downward, the rear wings upward, giving it an X-wing kind of
configuration when viewed from directly in front of it. Large-diameter
propellers are mounted at the four wing tips. Landing gear are attached
directly to the tail of the aircraft, and on long stilts forward of the center,
allowing the Strix to roll along the ground with its nose lifted at an angle.
The wings are
foldable, and with the props in the right orientation, the Strix folds down to
2.6 x 4.5 m (8.5 x 14.8 ft) in size, making it easy to roll into a standard
size container, so it can easily be moved about on a truck.
It can be
launched and landed vertically without the need for a runway; the upward tilt
at rest allows it to stand straight up on its back wheels under propeller
power, and then lift off and land off the rear wheels alone, like a
tail-sitter.
Its hybrid power system gives
it an impressive range and endurance, carrying a range of different
mission-specific payloads and munitions. It can run fully autonomously,
controlled by BAEs own Strix Vehicle Management System – which is already in
use for other autonomous platforms, including the M113 autonomous
armored vehicle, and the
jet-powered MQ-28
Ghost Bat loyal wingman UAV. This can be
run from a ground station, or the Strix can be controlled from on board a helicopter
to expand its capabilities and protect an air crew in a high-threat
environment.
"STRIX could be ready
for operational service as soon as 2026 and work is already underway on a STRIX
prototype," says BAE Systems Australia CEO Ben Hudson in a press release.
"We’re excited that this is the first UAS of its kind to be developed in
Australia and look forward to working with partners across the country to
deliver this capability to customers."
Check it out in the (silent)
render video below.
BAE unveils the
Strix, a fascinating, tail-sitting X-wing VTOL UAV (newatlas.com)
March 1,
1831 Lord John Russell, GB Prime minster introduces the Reform Bill to
Parliament to reform the UK electoral system, extending the franchise and
ending the “rotten boroughs.” It took effect as the Reform Act in 1832.
The largest
borough, Westminster, had about 12,000 voters, while many of the smallest,
usually known as "rotten boroughs", had fewer than 100 each.[18] The most famous rotten
borough was Old Sarum, which had 13 burgage plots that could be used to "manufacture" electors
if necessary—usually around half a dozen was thought sufficient. Other examples
were Dunwich (32 voters), Camelford (25), and Gatton (7).[19]
More
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