Wednesday, 1 March 2023

March 1, St. David’s Day. China Roars Back.

 Baltic Dry Index. 990  +55             Brent Crude 83.89

Spot Gold 1833                  US 2 Year Yield 4.81  +0.03

Coronavirus Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000

Deaths 53,103

Coronavirus Cases 01/03/23 World 679,997,652

Deaths 6,800,335

March 1, 1565 Portuguese soldier Estácio de Sá founds the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

A dismal month over, can China’s rebound save the global economy?  But will Biden’s tech war on China, plus real war on Russia, save global recession from a soft landing?

We are working through dangerous times as the Great Nixonian Error of Fiat Money nears its end.

Hong Kong stocks rise 3%; China’s factory activity reading hits highest level since 2012

UPDATED WED, MAR 1 2023 12:19 AM EST

Asia-Pacific markets mostly rose as investors digested a slew of key economic data across the region. China’s National Bureau of Statistics also reported its official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index rose to 52.6 in February, the highest since April 2012.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index rose 3.37% – leading gains in the region and the Hang Seng Tech index climbed 5.04%. In mainland China, the Shenzhen Component rose 1.02% and the Shanghai Composite also gained 0.9%.

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 was up marginally after GDP for the fourth quarter of 2022 came in at 0.5%, marking its fifth straight quarter expansion.

In Japan, the Nikkei 225 climbed 0.17% and the Topix was up marginally as factory activity in February shrank at its fastest pace in two and a half years, a private survey showed.

Private surveys for India’s manufacturing activity are scheduled to be released later today.

South Korean markets are closed to observe a holiday as the nation saw a narrowed trade deficit for the month of February.

Overnight in the U.S., all three major averages closed lower to round out a tough month, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average leading losses by losing over 230 points or 0.7%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite lost about 2.61% and 1.11% in February, respectively, but are still higher year to date.

Asia markets: PMI numbers, China, Japan, Australia, manufacturing PMI (cnbc.com)

Stock futures slip after investors wrap up a losing February: Live updates

UPDATED TUE, FEB 28 2023 6:59 PM EST

Stock futures inched down as investors came off a losing month.

Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 70 points, or 0.2%. S&P 500 futures slid 0.3%, while Nasdaq-100 futures dipped 0.4%.

The moves come as Wall Street closed out a losing February for stocks. The Dow led the averages down, closing the month down 4.19%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite shed 2.61% and 1.11%, respectively.

February’s slide helped drag the Dow into negative territory for the year, while the other two indexes are still holding onto their gains.

The decline marked a turn from January’s rally and was prompted in part by the bombshell jobs data that came in the first week of the month, according to Keith Buchanan, senior portfolio manager at Globalt Investments. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 517,000 in January, according to the report, which crushed the 187,000 estimated by economists polled by Dow Jones.

“There was a turning point that we can all point to,” Buchanan said. “The market had a moment where participants realized that perhaps the labor market is tight enough to continue to set the stage for increasing hawkishness.”

Investors will watch for economic data on construction and manufacturing coming after the market opens Wednesday. Consumer-focused companies including Lowe’s and Kohl’s are set to report before the bell. Technology names SalesforceOkta and Snowflake are reporting after the market closes.

Stock market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)

Next, China’s economy, helped by the end of Covid lockdowns and cheap oil from Russia, roars back. But will it be enough to save the global economy from recession?

China’s factory activity grows further, marks its highest reading in nearly 11 years

China’s factory activity for February bounced further into expansion territory, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics.

The official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index rose to 52.6 in February – above the 50-point mark that separates growth from contraction. That marks the highest reading since April 2012, when it hit 53.5.

February’s PMI reading is also higher than the 50.1 reported for January and above expectations of 50.5, according to economists surveyed by Reuters.

Non-manufacturing PMI also grew further to 56.3 from January’s print of 54.4, when it saw a sharp improvement backed by a recovery in services and construction activity.

The Chinese onshore yuan stood at 6.9325 against the U.S. dollar while the offshore yuan strengthened 0.15% to 6.9480 against the greenback.

China Beige Book’s chief economist Derek Scissors told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” he expects to see an improvement in consumption later this year – buoyed by any announcements from the upcoming National People’s Congress meetings.

“I think April’s really the time that consumers will take cues from the March National People’s Congress meetings and the announcements made there,” said Scissors.

He added, “In April, we should see where the course of Chinese consumption is going. It will be better than last year, but it won’t be much better and the people relying on that may be disappointed.”

China’s National People’s Congress kicks off on Sunday.

China's factory activity grows further, marks its highest reading in nearly 11 years (cnbc.com)

In crypto fraud land, yet another FTX bigwig pleads guilty. Is anyone really surprised?

Yesterday was the last day bent politicians and celebrities had to return SBF’s bribes without incurring interest penalties. No word yet on who, if anyone, returned the stolen cash.

FTX ex-engineering chief Nishad Singh pleads guilty to criminal charges

FTX ex-engineering head Nishad Singh pleaded guilty to criminal charges in New York on Tuesday, becoming the latest member of Sam Bankman-Fried’s former leadership team to agree to a deal.

The six charges against Singh include conspiracy to commit securities fraud, conspiracy to commit money laundering and conspiracy to violate campaign finance laws. FTX spiraled into bankruptcy in November after the crypto exchange, founded by Bankman-Fried, couldn’t meet customers’ withdrawal demands.

“Today’s guilty plea underscores once again that the crimes at FTX were vast in scope and consequence,” Manhattan U.S. Attorney Damian Williams said in a statement. “They rocked our financial markets with a multibillion dollar fraud. And they corrupted our politics with tens of millions of dollars in illegal straw campaign contributions. These crimes demand swift and certain justice and that is exactly what we are seeking in the Southern District of New York.”

The Securities and Exchange Commission, as well as the Commodity Futures Trading Commission both filed related civil complaints against Singh on Tuesday. The SEC said in a release that Singh is cooperating with the agency’s ongoing investigation, and he has separately agreed to settle with the CFTC.

Two of the criminal charges against Singh are related to wire fraud and another is conspiracy to commit commodities fraud.

“Nishad is deeply sorry for his role in this and has accepted responsibility for his actions,” lawyers for Singh said in a statement. “He wants to do everything he can to make things right for victims, including by assisting the government to the best of his ability in this case.”

Prior to Singh’s guilty plea, FTX co-founder Gary Wang and former Alameda Research co-CEO Caroline Ellison both pleaded guilty in December to federal charges in the Southern District of New York.

More

FTX ex-engineering head Nishad Singh pleads guilty to criminal charges (cnbc.com)

Finally, yet another country on the brink of failure and collapse as the Great Nixonian Error of fiat money nears its end.

South Africa on the verge of 'collapse' as blackouts threaten all-out civil war

February 27, 2023

South Africa is currently on edge of a "civil war" like unrest, amid warnings that the country could be facing rolling blackouts and the possibility of a total power grid failure. As the fears of mass rioting grow, Western embassies including the US and Australia have urged their citizens to stock up on "several days worth" of food and water, advising them to be on high alert during the extended blackouts that are sweeping the country during its energy crisis. The country has been grappling with frequent six-hour-long power cuts, creating a major energy crisis that has sparked mass protests and civil unrest.

Earlier this month, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa declared a state of disaster with immediate effect, as the country faced an acute electricity shortage.

As a result, state-owned power company Eskom has had to issue rolling blackout events known as "load shedding", which have lasted up to 12 hours in some instances, news.com.au reports.

Earlier this month, Australia's Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade said: "Rolling blackouts (load shedding) are occurring throughout South Africa which are affecting private residences, businesses, municipal lighting, traffic lights and hotels.Link

"Blackouts can also affect water availability, internet connectivity, mobile phone network coverage, fuel availability, residential security features, and food supply."

They also warned that these power outages could increase crime, saying "For example, traffic jams due to power outages provide opportunities for smash-and-grab crime.

"Residences can be targeted when lights are out and security systems are not functioning. Ongoing conditions have led to increased protests and demonstrations, and in some cases, civil unrest, throughout the country."

Meanwhile, the US Embassy advised its citizens to "maintain 72-hours' worth of supplies at home by stockpiling non-perishable food and 3 litres of drinking water per person per day, and medicines and first aid supplies."

---- They also warned US citizens against demonstrations, urging them to "exercise caution if unexpectedly in the vicinity of large gatherings or protests."

Last month, the US government warned representatives of large US-based companies operating in South Africa to prepare for a total collapse of the power grid, tech publication MyBroadband reported.

During a meeting, US government officials noted that while a total power grid failure was unlikely, it was "something we need to start thinking about".

They warned that in case of a total collapse, it could take up to "six to 14 days to restart the power grid," adding that "there are a few feeder lines from other countries, but not enough to help with a black start situation."

The official warned that if the grid collapsed, mass looting and civil unrest could follow, quoting an unnamed individual who said, "What's left after a blackout would be what was left after a civil war."

More

South Africa on the verge of 'collapse' as blackouts threaten all-out civil war (msn.com)

 

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Rising inflation in France and Spain fuels fears of more ECB rate increases

Persistent price pressures in leading economies drive rise in eurozone governments’ borrowing costs

February 28, 2023

Inflation rebounded in France and Spain in February, sending European governments’ borrowing costs up as doubts increased over how quickly the European Central Bank will stop raising interest rates.

French consumer prices rose 7.2 per cent in the year to February, driven to the highest rate since the euro was launched in 1999 by faster increases in food and services prices. Economists polled by Reuters had expected French inflation to stagnate at January’s 7 per cent level.

Spanish consumer price growth in February accelerated to 6.1 per cent, up from 5.9 per cent in January and above economists’ expectations for a fall to 5.5 per cent, despite the government cutting food taxes in January.

European government bond prices fell in response on Tuesday, sending the yield on Germany’s rate-sensitive two-year bond up 0.08 percentage points to 3.15 per cent, its highest level since the 2008 financial crisis.

The figures suggest eurozone inflation may prove more persistent than hoped, ahead of the publication of February price growth data for the bloc on Thursday, which economists expect to show a slowdown to 8.1 per cent, from 8.6 per cent in January.

 “There are clear upside risks for euro inflation in February,” said Jörg Krämer, chief economist at German lender Commerzbank.

Sharp drops in wholesale energy prices after a mild winter and reduced fuel consumption have helped eurozone inflation to fall rapidly from its October record of 10.6 per cent. However, it is unclear how quickly price growth will slow to the ECB’s 2 per cent target.

 The ECB has committed to a further half percentage point increase in its deposit rate at its meeting on March 16. That would take the benchmark rate to 3 per cent, up from minus 0.5 per cent last July, and swap markets are pricing in further increases to just below 4 per cent by the end of the year.

ECB chief economist Philip Lane said on Tuesday there was still a strong case for another half percentage point rate rise in March even though “there’s significant evidence that monetary policy is kicking in” and forward-looking indicators show price pressures cooling.

“We’re all signed up to the criterion that sufficient progress in underlying inflation is important,” Lane told Reuters, suggesting the ECB will need to see slowing price growth in goods and services as well as energy and food before it stops raising rates.

Even then, he said, it would be “quite a long-lasting period, a fair number of quarters” before it cut rates. French inflation was mainly driven up by faster growth in food and services prices, while energy inflation fell despite a 15 per cent rise in the regulated electricity tariff this year. The country’s core inflation rate, which includes processed foods, rose from 5.6 per cent to 5.8 per cent. The month-on-month growth in French consumer prices accelerated to 0.9 per cent, up from 0.4 per cent in January.


Melanie Debono, an economist at research group Pantheon Macroeconomics, said higher Spanish inflation was “surprising” after Madrid introduced a €10bn package of temporary tax cuts on staples, including bread, pasta, dairy products, fruit and vegetables.

More

Rising inflation in France and Spain fuels fears of more ECB rate increases | Financial Times (ft.com)

London businesses sweat over UK recession risk as experts warn on cost of living pressures

TUESDAY 28 FEBRUARY 2023 6:00 AM

Uncertainty over whether the UK economy will tip into recession this year has led London businesses to sweat over their finances this year, a closely watched survey out today reveals.

Optimism among the capital’s companies slid 19 points in February to 18 per cent, arresting a steady upward rise in confidence, according to Lloyds Bank’s business barometer.

Concerns about whether the wider UK can withstand a much-tipped spending slowdown from households and businesses sparked by inflation eating into their finances pushed confidence lower.

London firms’ confidence in the UK economy slid 34 points this year to minus one per cent, while optimism in their own business prospects dropped four points to 37 per cent.

February’s slide has brought the capital’s businesses’ confidence levels broadly in line with the countrywide average, which edged one point lower to 21 per cent.

Becci Wicks, regional director for London at Lloyds Bank Commercial Banking, said: “Despite the dip in confidence, London firms have optimism in their own business prospects, something that will help shape their growth plans for the year ahead.”

A recent batch of better-than-expected data has raised hopes that the UK may avoid a much-warned recession this year, helping to gradually lift business confidence over the past few months.

“Business confidence has lost a little momentum this month, following the strong gains seen recently,” Hann-Ju Ho, senior economist for Lloyds Bank Commercial Banking, said.

“While inflation appears to be tapering, pressures on consumers will need to ease further to help make it a more stable environment for businesses to operate.”

Numbers from the ONS earlier this month revealed GDP narrowly avoided a technical slump at the end of last year, while inflation fell for the straight month to 10.1 per cent in January, a bigger than projected drop.

Analytics firm GfK last Friday revealed consumer confidence leapt seven points to minus 38 this month, smashing experts’ forecasts.

More

London businesses sweat over UK recession risk (cityam.com)

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

Xylitol Nasal Spray Prevents SARS-CoV-2 Infection

Feb 26 2023

biggersmaller

The sophisticated American consumer has grown accustomed to the gold standard for drug and health products—the prospective randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial (RCT). Operation Warp Speed (OWS) was supposed to be a churning mill of large RCTs to help the nation understand what conclusively is effective in the prevention and treatment of COVID-19.

 

Unfortunately, after three years, OWS has delivered failed products (remdesivir, baricitinib, molnupiravir, COVID-19 vaccines) and small inconclusive trials of products that doctors have found effective in practice, including off-target generic antivirals and anticoagulants. OWS did not test simple, affordable, available prevention strategies. Fortunately, such RCTs were done outside of the United States and have brought us important findings.

 

Balmforth, et al., conducted a prospective double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of a xylitol-based nasal spray in the prevention of SARS-CoV-2 infection in exposed healthcare workers in two hospitals in Uttar Pradesh, India. Xylitol is known to have anti-infective and anti-inflammatory properties and is used in XLEAR nasal spray and anti-infective chewing gum to prevent dental caries.

 

Balmforth found that SARS-CoV-2 infection confirmed by serology was 71 percent lower with xylitol compared to placebo [36 cases (13.1 percent) vs. 97 cases (34.5 percent); odds ratio [OR] 0.29 (95 percent CI; 0.18–0.45), p < 0.0001]. Fewer clinical symptoms were also seen in the test group [57 cases (17.6 percent) vs. 112 cases (34.6 percent); OR 0.40, (95 percent CI; 0.27–0.59), p < 0.0001].

 

No harmful effects were associated with xylitol. A smaller study of xylitol nasal spray in mild COVID-19 cases demonstrated that persistent loss of smell may be eliminated with xylitol nasal spray during the acute congestion phase.

More

Xylitol Nasal Spray Prevents SARS-CoV-2 Infection (theepochtimes.com)

NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html

Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker

Some other useful Covid links.

Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Centers for Disease Control Coronavirus

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html

The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)

https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

BAE unveils the Strix, a fascinating, tail-sitting X-wing VTOL UAV

Loz Blain  February 27, 2023

BAE Systems has unveiled a fascinating new autonomous, hybrid, VTOL UAV for military use. The STRIX, developed in Australia, folds to fit inside a shipping container, and is capable of carrying 160 kg (353 lb) of payload over 800 km (500 miles).

The STRIX was unveiled this morning at Australia's Avalon Air Show, in front of air force chiefs from around the world – with the notable exceptions, according to the ABC, of Russian and Chinese delegates, who have been excluded from the conference.

BAE Systems has developed the aircraft in conjunction with Perth-based company Innovaero. It describes the Strix as a "hybrid, tandem-wing, multi-domain and multi-role UAS," capable of performing missions including air-to-ground strike, persistent intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance, or potentially serving as a "loyal wingman" – style force multiplier to accompany military helicopters.

The airframe is a nuggety design, with medium-width wings at the front and rear. The forward wings are tilted downward, the rear wings upward, giving it an X-wing kind of configuration when viewed from directly in front of it. Large-diameter propellers are mounted at the four wing tips. Landing gear are attached directly to the tail of the aircraft, and on long stilts forward of the center, allowing the Strix to roll along the ground with its nose lifted at an angle.

The wings are foldable, and with the props in the right orientation, the Strix folds down to 2.6 x 4.5 m (8.5 x 14.8 ft) in size, making it easy to roll into a standard size container, so it can easily be moved about on a truck.

It can be launched and landed vertically without the need for a runway; the upward tilt at rest allows it to stand straight up on its back wheels under propeller power, and then lift off and land off the rear wheels alone, like a tail-sitter.

Its hybrid power system gives it an impressive range and endurance, carrying a range of different mission-specific payloads and munitions. It can run fully autonomously, controlled by BAEs own Strix Vehicle Management System – which is already in use for other autonomous platforms, including the M113 autonomous armored vehicle, and the jet-powered MQ-28 Ghost Bat loyal wingman UAV. This can be run from a ground station, or the Strix can be controlled from on board a helicopter to expand its capabilities and protect an air crew in a high-threat environment.

"STRIX could be ready for operational service as soon as 2026 and work is already underway on a STRIX prototype," says BAE Systems Australia CEO Ben Hudson in a press release. "We’re excited that this is the first UAS of its kind to be developed in Australia and look forward to working with partners across the country to deliver this capability to customers."

Check it out in the (silent) render video below.

BAE unveils the Strix, a fascinating, tail-sitting X-wing VTOL UAV (newatlas.com)

March 1, 1831 Lord John Russell, GB Prime minster introduces the Reform Bill to Parliament to reform the UK electoral system, extending the franchise and ending the “rotten boroughs.” It took effect as the Reform Act in 1832.

The largest borough, Westminster, had about 12,000 voters, while many of the smallest, usually known as "rotten boroughs", had fewer than 100 each.[18] The most famous rotten borough was Old Sarum, which had 13 burgage plots that could be used to "manufacture" electors if necessary—usually around half a dozen was thought sufficient. Other examples were Dunwich (32 voters), Camelford (25), and Gatton (7).[19]

More

Reform Act 1832 - Wikipedia

No comments:

Post a Comment