Last Updated: March 3, 2023 at 3:04 p.m. ET First Published: March 3, 2023 at 11:50 a.m.
ET
Single-family
home prices slid 1% in January, as compared to December 2022, according to data
from Moody’s Analytics
Americans are finding it hard to
afford homes at mortgage levels now beyond 7%
As mortgage rates rose in the last quarter of 2022, Americans
found the cost of homeownership increasingly challenging, adding hundreds of
dollars in interest to their potential monthly mortgage payment. Yet home
prices held steady, given how few homes were on the market.
But
months of high mortgage rates and a drop in home sales are finally impacting
home prices. Single-family home prices slid 1% in January, as compared to
December 2022, according to data from Moody’s Analytics.
“The
U.S. housing market is crumbling under the weight of higher mortgage rates and
rock-bottom affordability,” Matthew Walsh, Moody’s Analytics housing economist,
said.
Alaska
had the biggest decline in month-over-month prices. Home prices fell by 4.9% in
January. New Mexico and Wyoming followed, with a 3.8% decline. Mississippi took
the next spot with home prices dropping 3.7% in January as compared to the
month before.
However,
it wasn’t all bad news. House prices also rose month-over-month in Indiana, by
2.2%, West Virginia, by 1.1% and Vermont by 1%.
But looking at prices year-over-year, the West
Coast is leading the drop, Moody’s Analytics said, with California, Nevada and
Washington reporting values below what they saw in 2022.
The median price of an
existing home Census data.
To be clear, home prices aren’t crashing, but rather falling
gradually as buyer demand dries up.
Part of the reason why sales aren’t moving more is because
sellers are reluctant to list. Having secured an ultra-low mortgage rate over
the last two years, there’s little interest in giving up that deal.
More
‘The
U.S. housing market is crumbling under the weight of higher mortgage rates and
rock-bottom affordability’: Prices fell the most in these U.S. states -
MarketWatch
Next,
more trouble at Blackstone, as rising global interest rates continue to bite.
Blackstone defaults on $562 mln
Nordic property-backed CMBS - Bloomberg News March
2, 2023 6:14 PM GMT
March 2 (Reuters) -
Blackstone Inc (BX.N) has defaulted on a 531 million euro ($562.5
million) bond backed by a portfolio of offices and stores owned by Finnish
company Sponda Oy, Bloomberg News reported , as rising interest rates hit European property
values.
The asset management giant and prolific
real estate investor sought an extension from the bondholders to repay the
debt, but they voted against it, the report said on Thursday, citing people
familiar with the matter.
Shares of the private-equity firm fell
1.6%.
"This debt relates to a small
portion of the Sponda portfolio. We are disappointed that the Servicer has not
advanced our proposal," Blackstone said in an emailed statement on
Thursday.
"We continue to have full
confidence in the core Sponda portfolio and its management team," the
company added.
Blackstone's $71
billion unlisted real estate income trust (BREIT) has also been in hot water.
On Wednesday, the BREIT said it was forced to limit withdrawals
for the fourth straight month.
Blackstone defaults on $562 mln Nordic property-backed
CMBS - Bloomberg News | Reuters
Finally,
more from Dr. Doom. Hopefully he is wrong, but his track record suggests he’s
likely to be right.
A
'perfect storm' of recession, debt, and out-of-control inflation is coming for
markets this year, 'Dr. Doom' Nouriel Roubini says Mar 2, 2023, 6:29 PM
A "perfect
storm" is brewing in 2023, and a markets are going to get hit with a
recession, debt crisis, and out-of-control inflation, according to "Dr.
Doom" economist Nouriel Roubini.
Roubini, one of the
first economists to call the 2008 recession, has been warning for
months of a stagflationary debt crisis , which combines the worst aspects of 70s-style
stagflation and the '08 debt crisis.
"I do believe that
a stagflationary crisis is going to emerge this year," Roubini said in an
interview with Australia's ABC on Thursday.
With consumer inflation
still sticky at 6.4%, Roubini estimated that the Federal Reserve would need to
lift benchmark rates "well above" 6% for inflation to fall back to
its 2% target.
But that could spark a
severe recession, stock market crash, and an explosion in debt defaults,
leaving the Fed with no choice but to back off its inflation fight and let prices spiral out of control , he added. The result would be a steep recession anyway,
followed by more debt and inflation problems.
"Now we're facing
the perfect storm: inflation, stagflation, recession, and a potential debt
crisis," Roubini warned.
He has remained
ultra-bearish on the economy, despite the market's growing hope that the US
could skirt a recession this year.
Though more bullish commentators are making the case for a healthy rebound in the
S&P 500, which fell 20% last year, Roubini has previously warned the
benchmark stock index could slide another 30% as investors battle extreme macro
conditions.
"They will
continue to go down," he said of stocks, pointing to the recent sell-off
as investors price in higher interest rates from the Fed. "The market is
already correcting."
He urged investors to
protect themselves by choosing inflation hedges , such as gold, inflation-indexed bonds, and short-term
bonds. Those picks are likely to beat stocks and bonds, he said, which will suffer in the new economic regime.
Nouriel Roubini:
'Perfect Storm' of Recession, Debt, Inflation Is Coming (businessinsider.com)
Global
Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its
own.
Euro zone recovery gathers pace, allays fears of
recession-PMI March
3, 2023 9:04 AM GMT
LONDON, March 3 (Reuters) - The recovery in euro zone business activity
gathered pace last month as growth accelerated in the bloc's dominant services
industry, a survey showed, providing the latest piece of evidence suggesting
the currency union will avoid a recession.
S&P Global's Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), seen as a
good barometer of overall economic health, climbed to an eight-month high of
52.0 last month from 50.3 in January, a little shy of a 52.3 preliminary
reading.
February marked its second straight month above the 50 mark separating
growth from contraction.
"A resounding expansion of business activity in February helps
allay worries of a euro zone recession, for now," said Chris Williamson,
chief business economist at S&P Global.
"There are clear signs that business confidence has picked up from
the lows seen late last year, buoyed by fewer energy market concerns, as well
as signs that inflation has peaked and recession risks have eased."
The future output index, a gauge of optimism about the year ahead, rose
to 61.2 in February from 60.4, its highest reading in a year.
A PMI covering the services industry jumped to 52.7 from 50.8, just
below the 53.0 flash reading.
Demand picked up and firms were able to build up a backlog of work for
the first time since October. The new business index bounced to 52.2 from 50.1.
With demand strong business across the region raised prices again,
albeit at the slowest pace in over a year.
"There is a concern, however, that
signs of persistent elevated selling price inflation, combined with the
surprising resiliency of the economy, will embolden the ECB into more
aggressive monetary policy tightening, which poses a downside risk to demand
growth in the months ahead," Williamson said.
Another 50 basis
point increase to the European Central Bank's deposit rate this month is a done
deal, according to economists polled
by Reuters , who expected an additional 25 basis point lift next quarter to
give a terminal rate of 3.25%.
Euro zone recovery
gathers pace, allays fears of recession-PMI | Reuters
Below,
why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be
quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity
Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.
The
“New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking
https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf
Mines,
Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check
https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check
"An
Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As
The Industry Races To Recycle
by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/environmental-disaster-ev-battery-metals-crunch-horizon-industry-races-recycle
Covid-19
Corner
This
section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Something
different this weekend. Vitamin D which also helps minimize the effects of
Covid-19 infection.
Evidence
mounts that vitamin D may be key to preventing dementia By Bronwyn Thompson March 01, 2023
A new
large-scale study has shown that warding off dementia early may be as simple
for some as taking a vitamin D supplement.
Previous
research has found that low
levels of vitamin D are linked to a higher risk of developing dementia. The
hormone helps remove amyloid from the brain – its accumulation is a hallmark of
Alzheimer’s disease – and it may also assist in preventing tau build-up,
another protein at play in the development of dementia.
While vitamin D is obtained through direct sunlight
and diet, studies have consistently shown around 40% of Americans to be
D-deficient, with the figure higher depending on age and skin color, among
other factors.
Researchers looked at the link between dementia and
vitamin D supplements in close to 12,400 people who had a mean age of 71 and
were dementia-free at the start of the study. Within this group 4,637 took
vitamin D supplements.
Of the 2,696 participants who progressed to
dementia in the following decade, 75% had no exposure to vitamin D supplements
prior to diagnosis. The remaining quarter had baseline exposure at the
beginning of the study.
“Our findings give key insights into groups who
might be specifically targeted for vitamin D supplementation,” said Zahinoor
Ismail, lead researcher and professor at the University of Calgary and
University of Exeter. “Overall, we found evidence to suggest that earlier
supplementation might be particularly beneficial, before the onset of cognitive
decline.”
Researchers found 40% fewer dementia diagnoses
among the 4,637 participants who took vitamin D supplements, compared to the
cohort that did not.
Interestingly, the study also
found that vitamin D supplements seemed to benefit a few subsets of
participants more: women, those with normal cognition as opposed to mild
impairments, and in people who did not carry the APOE-e4 gene.
Around 40-65% of dementia sufferers carry this gene , which is associated with the regulation of lipid
metabolism, and is linked to increase risk of developing the disease.
Researchers believe that those with this gene absorb vitamin D from the
intestine, which would potentially alter the efficacy of supplements.
“Preventing dementia or even
delaying its onset is vitally important given the growing numbers of people
affected,” said Byron Creese, co-author and senior lecturer in neuroscience at
the University of Exeter. “The link with vitamin D in this study suggests that
taking vitamin D supplements may be beneficial in preventing or delaying
dementia.”
The study was published in
the journal Alzheimer's & Dementia: Diagnosis, Assessment &
Disease Monitoring.
Source: University of Exeter via EurekAlert!
Further evidence
of link between vitamin D and dementia prevention (newatlas.com)
World
Health Organization - Landscape of COVID-19 candidate vaccines . https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines
NY
Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker . https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory
Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker . https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some more useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
The Spectator
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Major News in the Progression of Graphene
Batteries, Reports IDTechEx 02 Mar, 2023, 17:37 GMT
BOSTON , March 2, 2023 /PRNewswire/
-- Using graphene to improve the performance of energy storage devices has been
a key focus ever since the 2D material was isolated. As soon as the first
commercial graphene manufacturers were established, there has been a steady
stream of announcements related to batteries, but perhaps none are as
significant as the 2023 news of Evonik entering the field with their investment
in SuperC.
Graphene
has been proposed and used for numerous roles in energy storage applications,
ranging from lead-acid batteries to supercapacitors, but the real target is
lithium-ion batteries. This market is booming; IDTechEx forecasts the
lithium-ion battery market to exceed US$430 Bn by
2033, so even getting a very small piece of this pie is significant. The market
has several applications, from power tools to residential installations, but of
course, the lion's share will be used in the automotive sector. The role of
graphene within the battery has again been diverse; companies have proposed using
it as a coating to a current collector or as an enabling conductive network for
alternative solutions such as lithium-sulphur. However, the predominant area is
the role it can play in either enabling silicon anodes or improving the
performance of current generation lithium-ion electrodes.
IDTechEx
has been covering both the graphene and energy storage space for more than ten
years. Their leading independent reports on the topic include interview-based
player profiles, market forecasts and benchmarking studies. For more
information, please see "Graphene Market & 2D Materials Assessment 2023-2033 ".
In February 2023 , Evonik announced that they had invested
in China -based graphene manufacturer
SuperC. This investment comes from their Sustainability Tech Fund, launched in
2022, which has a total investment volume of EUR 150m .
The press release states that SuperC's technology can
"improve the range, robustness, charging speed, and service life of
lithium-ion batteries." It goes on to note that the "addition of
graphene increases the electrical and thermal conductivity of the batteries for
faster charging and better overall performance. The batteries become also more
temperature insensitive."
SuperC has been a long-standing graphene player, and at a
time when some other early manufacturers have folded, it is a welcome boost to
the industry. The company was formed in 2011 (also known as Hefei Haizhou New
Material Co) in Dongguan, China , and has
always had a focus on energy storage. They produce few-layer graphene (FLG),
and it was reported early on that they established a 10,000 tpa capacity for
graphene battery electrode pastes. The press release goes on to note that the
company will be establishing a new production facility in Hefei .
More
Major News in the
Progression of Graphene Batteries, Reports IDTechEx (prnewswire.co.uk)
This weekend’s music diversion. J. S.
Bach again. Approx. 16 minutes.
Bach:
Brandenburg Concerto No. 4 in G Major BWV 1049, original with echo flutes;
Voices of Music 4K
Bach: Brandenburg
Concerto No. 4 in G Major BWV 1049, original with echo flutes; Voices of Music
4K - YouTube
This
weekend’s chess update. Approx. 14 minutes.
Everyone
Needs To See This!
Everyone Needs To
See This! - YouTube
No
weekend math’s update this week. This week, what happened to Kaiser Bill after
he lost World War One. Approx. 7 minutes.
The
Last Kaiser - Wilhelm II in Exile
The Last Kaiser -
Wilhelm II in Exile - YouTube
It is the maxim of every prudent master of a family, never to attempt to
make at home what it will cost him more to make than to buy...What is prudence
in the conduct of every private family, can scarce be folly in that of a great
kingdom.
Adam Smith, The Wealth of Nations, 1776.
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