Friday, 17 March 2023

Boom Time For Bad Banksters. Bonds Volatile.

 Baltic Dry Index. 1560  -43             Brent Crude 75.33

Spot Gold 1929                   US 2 Year Yield 4.14 +0.21

Coronavirus Cases 01/04/20 World 1,000,000

Deaths 53,103

Coronavirus Cases 17/03/23 World 682,189,863

Deaths 6,817,022

No one can forecast the economy with certainty.

Jamie Dimon, CEO JP Morgan Chase.

In better news for banksters, both Credit Swiss and California’s First Republic got bailouts.  Trouble over for now, but how long is “for now?”

Almost as important, why does America need badly run, poorly regulated, regional banks at all?  Why rescue badly run banksters and their shareholders  from their own folly?

With the new Biden rescue regime, banksters are now incentivised to engage in even more reckless gambling in a bid to push up the share price, secure in the knowledge that if it all blows up, the depositors, even up to billionaire level, are fully protected.

On the principle that bad money drives out good, US banksterism has just incentivised bad banksters to drive out good banksters.

With fears high that customers who exceeded the $250,000 Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. guarantee could lose their money, regulators stepped in to back all deposits.

The programs ramped up the totals on the Fed balance sheet, escalating the total by some $297 billion.”

With some $297 billion of nearly free money pouring into US dodgy banks in less than a week, with more to come next week and the week after as the laggards and lazy catch up, expect a great boost to US inflation shortly ahead.

In collateral damage, the US Treasury market has rocketed into dangerous volatility.

More trouble ahead in a few months, I think.

 

First Republic Gets a $30 Billion Lifeline

16 March 2023 at 22:17 GMT

 Another day, another bank. Yesterday Credit Suisse was in the hot seat. But thanks to the Swiss government, the troubled lender has a new lease on life. Today, eyes turned back to the US, where in the span of a week three regional banks (Silvergate, Silicon Valley, Signature) went down for the count. A fourth midsize lender, First Republic, was looking like it might join them, its shares having plummeted in the aftermath of SVB’s implosion. Last night, Bloomberg broke news that First Republic was even exploring a possible sale. But on Thursday, Wall Street rode to First Republic’s rescue as the biggest US banks deposited $30 billion to tide it over. Among them, JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citigroup and Wells Fargo will each contribute $5 billion, while Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley will kick in $2.5 billion. “This show of support by a group of large banks is most welcome, and demonstrates the resilience of the banking system,” said US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and other government officials in a statement hailing the deal. One analyst proclaimed, that with the rescue of First Republic, “the banking crisis is over.”

Here are today’s top stories

But then again, maybe not. Banks borrowed heavily over the last week from two Fed backstop facilities. Data published by the central bank showed $152.85 billion in borrowing from the discount window—the traditional liquidity backstop for banks—in the week ended March 15. It was a record high and a staggering increase from the $4.58 billion borrowed the previous week. The prior all-time high? It was $111 billion during the 2008 financial crisis.

 

Meanwhile in Switzerland, Credit Suisse closed Thursday with a lifesaving $54 billion credit line from the Swiss National Bank. But on Friday, the lender awoke to rumblings of an arranged marriage with UBS. The Swiss government and lenders have been running through a range of scenarios beyond the liquidity backstop, including a breakup, while some on Wall Street see a takeover as the only way it all ends. Both banks see a takeover as a last resort. And for those who like charts, here are some showing just how Credit Suisse got here in the first place.

 

US stocks ended the day higher after First Republic’s rescue package was secured, sparking a rebound in shares of embattled regional lenders. Treasuries fell after the European Central Bank delivered a rate hike that added to bets the US central bank will also raise rates next week, despite the banking crisis. 

More

Bloomberg Evening Briefing: First Republic Bank Gets a $30 Billion Lifeline - Bloomberg

Banks take advantage of Fed crisis lending programs

Financial institutions took billions in short-term loans this week from the Federal Reserve as the industry copes with a serious crisis of confidence and liquidity, the central bank reported Thursday.

Utilizing tools the Fed rolled out Sunday, banks looking for cash infusions borrowed $11.9 billion from the Bank Term Funding Program. Under that facility, banks can take one-year loans under favorable terms in exchange for high-quality collateral.

Most banks took the more traditional route, using the Fed’s discount window under terms slightly less favorable, with borrowing totaling nearly $153 billion. The discount window provides loans of up to just 90 days, while the BTFP term is for one year. However, the Fed eased conditions at the discount window to make it more attractive for borrowers in need of operating funds.

There also was a large uptick in offered bridge loans, also done over short terms, totaling $142.8 billion, made primarily to now-shuttered institutions so they could meet obligations regarding depositors and other expenses.

The data comes just days after regulators shut Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, two institutions favored by the high-tech community.

With fears high that customers who exceeded the $250,000 Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. guarantee could lose their money, regulators stepped in to back all deposits.

The programs ramped up the totals on the Fed balance sheet, escalating the total by some $297 billion.

Banks take advantage of Fed crisis lending programs (cnbc.com)

Bank rescues ease crisis fears but investors worry it's not enough

March 17 (Reuters) - A $30 billion lifeline for First Republic Bank (FRC.N) hosed down market fears about an imminent banking collapse on Friday, but a late tumble in the troubled U.S. lender's shares showed investors were still worried about cracks in the sector.

Large U.S. banks injected the funds into San Francisco-based bank on Thursday, swooping in to rescue the lender caught up in a widening crisis triggered by the collapse of two other mid-size U.S. lenders over the past week.

The deal was put together by top power brokers including U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, who had discussed the package this week, according to a source familiar with the situation.

The package came less than a day after Swiss bank Credit Suisse (CSGN.S) clinched an emergency central bank loan of up to $54 billion to shore up its liquidity.

Those deals helped restore calm to global markets on Thursday and Friday, following a torrid week for banking stocks.

However, while First Republic's stock closed up 10% on news of the rescue, its shares fell 18% in after-market trading after the bank said it would suspend its dividend and disclosed its cash position and just how much emergency liquidity it needed.

Analysts say authorities appear eager to quickly deal with systemic risks, but worry the potential for a banking crisis is far from over.

"They will keep the money in First Republic to keep it alive for self interest ... to stop the run on banks. Then they will take it away gradually and the bank will play out a slow death," said Mathan Somasundaram, founder at research firm Deep Data Analytics in Sydney.

---- While the support has prevented an imminent collapse, investors were startled by late disclosures about First Republic's cash position, even after the injection, and just how much it and others leaned on the Fed this month for support.

Data on Thursday showed banks in the United States sought record amounts of emergency liquidity from the Fed in recent days, driving up the size of the central bank's balance sheet after months of contraction.

More

Bank rescues ease crisis fears but investors worry it's not enough | Reuters

 

Asia markets rise as Wall Street banks move to shore up banking system

UPDATED FRI, MAR 17 2023 1:21 AM EDT

Asia-Pacific markets were higher Friday after major Wall Street banks pledged a deposit of $30 billion in First Republic Bank in an attempt to bolster confidence in the banking system. The group of 11 banks, included Bank of AmericaWells FargoCitigroup and JPMorgan Chase.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index climbed 1.85%, leading gains in the region and the Hang Seng Tech jumped 4.35%. Notably, shares of search engine company Baidu surged over 15%.

In mainland China, the Shenzhen Component was 1.25% higher, with the Shanghai Composite up 1.58%.

Japanese markets were higher with the Nikkei 225 up 1.2% and the Topix higher at 1.18%.

South Korea’s Kospi was also up 0.73%, while the Kosdaq saw a larger gain at 2.03%. In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 inched up 0.45% with banks seeing minor gains to reverse Thursday’s losses.

Overnight in the U.S., stocks rallied in late in the trading day after news of the banking rescue deal, with all three major indexes closing up.

The Nasdaq Composite made the largest gains, advancing 2.48% as investors bought technology stocks on hopes that the crisis could push the Federal Reserve to shift its outlook on monetary policy at its meeting next week.

Asia markets, banks, Europe, U.S., rescue plans (cnbc.com)

Finally, in cryptoland news another illegal site gets its comeuppance. Are there any legal sites/uses with crypto?

 

Int'l operation takes down ChipMixer money laundering service

MARCH 16, 2023 / 5:29 AM

March 16 (UPI) -- International authorities have conducted a takedown of ChipMixer, a darknet cryptocurrency mixing service that they accuse of laundering and hiding the origins of billions of dollars in bitcoin for criminal organizations, North Korean hackers and the Russian Intelligence Service.

The Justice Department announced the coordinated law enforcement action Wednesday, stating they seized of two domains that directed users to the ChipMixer service and a Github Internet hosting service account, while German police took down the ChipMixer back-end servers and more than $46 million in cryptocurrency.

"This morning, working with partners at home and abroad, the Department of Justice disabled a prolific cryptocurrency mixer, which has fueled ransomware attacks, state-sponsored crypto-heists and darknet purchases across the globe," Deputy Attorney General Lisa Monaco said in a statement.

A cryptocurrency mixing service obfuscates the origins of cryptocurrency by commingling the illicitly earned funds with other streams of cryptocurrency, and ChipMixer is one of the most widely used by bad actors to launder their funds, authorities said.

Federal prosecutors said ChipMixer offered its clients numerous other services to conceal their bitcoin deposits from law enforcement and is responsible for laundering more than $3 billion worth of digital monies since 2017.

They also charged Minh Quoc Nguyen in a criminal complaint on Wednesday as the 49-year-old Vietnamese operator of ChipMixer with money laundering, operating an unlicensed money transmitting business and identity theft.

Prosecutors accuse the service of processing some $17 million in bitcoin connected to 37 ransomware strains and more than $700 million in bitcoin associated with stolen digital wallets, some which were thieved in heists by North Korean cyberactors from online video game network Axie Infinity last year and in 2020.

More

International operation takes down ChipMixer money laundering service - UPI.com

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

BlackRock CEO Fink warns of financial risks, persistent inflation

March 15, 2023

(Reuters) - BlackRock Inc Chief Executive Laurence Fink warned on Wednesday the U.S. regional banking sector remains at risk after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and that inflation will persist and rates would continue to rise.

In an annual letter, Fink described the current financial situation as the "price of easy money" after the Federal Reserve had to hike rates nearly 500 basis points to fight inflation, and that he expects more Fed rate increases.

Fink wrote that after the regional banking crisis, the financial industry could see what he termed "liquidity mismatches." That is because the low rates have driven some asset owners to raise their exposure to higher-yielding investments that are not easy to sell.

“Bond markets were down 15% last year, but it still seemed, as they say in those old Western movies, ‘quiet, too quiet,’” Fink said in his letter, which was seen by Reuters. “Something else had to give as the fastest pace of rate hikes since the 1980s exposed cracks in the financial system."

Fink said that quick regulatory action helped stave off a wider crisis. He wrote that he expects a more divided world will interrupt supply chains and make inflation persistent and "more likely to stay closer to 3.5% or 4% in the next few years."

Fink's annual letters to CEOs and investors, traditionally sent in January, have become a touchstone for corporate leaders as the New York firm he co-founded grew into the world's largest asset manager. It had $8.6 trillion under management as of Dec. 31.

This year Fink combined both letters into one wide-ranging, 20-page document touching on everything from the benefits of working in-person to his affinity for the 1980s pop music bank Talk Talk.

He did not directly address the often-personal criticism he has received from U.S. Republicans who say BlackRock has put too much attention on environmental, social and governance (ESG) issues.

But he cited what he called the "once unthinkable figure" of $120 billion that insurers had to cover for natural catastrophes in 2022, which he said showed why climate risk amounts to investment risk.

He added that is "why BlackRock has been so vocal in recent years in advocating for disclosures and asking questions about how companies plan to navigate the energy transition," although it is not BlackRock's place to tell companies what to do.

MARKETS ON EDGE

Fink said it was not clear yet whether the banking crisis precipitated by rising interest rates would claim more victims, but it seemed inevitable that some banks will now pull back on lending to shore up their balance sheets.

That will lead bank clients to turn more to capital markets for their financing in the face of what Fink called the "asset-liability mismatches" that doomed Silicon Valley Bank and several smaller institutions.

“It’s too early to know how widespread the damage is,” Fink wrote. “The regulatory response has so far been swift, and decisive actions have helped stave off contagion risks. But markets remain on edge.”

He did not refer to BlackRock's own exposure to the regional banks. Reuters reported this week that, based on Morningstar data, mutual funds managed by BlackRock and some others appear to be among the most exposed to the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. BlackRock has previously said its diversified products "have limited exposure to Silicon Valley Bank."

More

BlackRock CEO Fink warns of financial risks, persistent inflation (msn.com)

Goldman boosts US recession odds after slashing GDP forecast

Goldman Sachs is becoming more pessimistic about the economy.

Thu, March 16, 2023 at 10:37 AM GMT

Goldman Sachs (GS) continues to lead the charge in sounding the economic alarm bells as a fresh banking crisis rolls through markets and the economy.

The investment bank's chief economist, Jan Hatzius, said Thursday he now sees a 35% chance of a U.S. recession in the next 12-months, up from 25% previously. The increase in odds reflects "increased near-term uncertainty" around the economic effects of small bank stress.

A day earlier, Hatzius cut his 2023 GDP forecast by 0.3 percentage points to 1.2% in a new note out Wednesday afternoon.

The closely watched economist stands alone on Wall Street at the moment in revising forecasts down for GDP, while also raising the odds of a recession amid the banking turmoil.

Recent news flow underscores why Hatzius is trying to get out in front of the potential economic downshift.

Silicon Valley Bank's (SIVBcollapse last Friday marked the second-largest bank failure in the U.S., behind only Washington Mutual during the Great Recession. Signature Bank's (SBNY) demise was the third-largest bank failure in history.

The turbulent situation caused regulators to spring into action to prevent a banking crisis and mass tech layoffs, which is what likely would have happened if left unaddressed, sources have told Yahoo Finance.

Credit Suisse (CS) shares have seen two days of extreme volatility on rising fears of its survival. The investment bank said late Wednesday it would borrow up to $54 billion from the Swiss central bank to shore up investor confidence.

Hatzius thinks that while the banking crisis is a concern, it will not trigger a rate cut from the Federal Reserve. In turn, a recession may unfold as lending standards are tightened and consumers pull back while becoming more jittery about the economy.

More

Goldman boosts US recession odds after slashing GDP forecast (yahoo.com)

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

FDA Authorizes Updated COVID-19 Vaccine for Children as Young as 6 Months Old

Mar 15 2023

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has granted emergency authorization to the updated Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine as a booster for children as young as 6 months old, even though Pfizer has produced no clinical efficacy data for any age group.

FDA officials on March 14 said the emergency clearance was based on trial data that showed 60 children had “an immune response” after receiving the updated bivalent booster, and trial data that found 60 young children experienced side effects such as fatigue, diarrhea, and vomiting after bivalent vaccination.

 

None of the trial data has been released to the public.

The authorization means children aged 6 months to 5 years will be encouraged to get a booster dose just two months after the final dose of a three-dose Pfizer primary series.

The bivalent vaccines protected well against symptomatic infection for children aged 5 and older initially, but the protection waned to close to 50 percent after several months, according to federal data. There were no estimates for protection against severe illness.

 

Children are less likely to experience severe COVID-19 and many have already been infected, giving them protection that’s similar to or superior to vaccination.

 

The authorization provides parents “an opportunity to update their children’s protection by receiving a booster dose” of the updated vaccine, Dr. Peter Marks, an FDA official, said in a statement. “Currently available data show that vaccination remains the best defense against severe disease, hospitalization and death caused by COVID-19 across all age groups, and we encourage all eligible individuals to make sure that their vaccinations are up to date with a bivalent COVID-19 vaccine.”

 

Regulators were more cautious in their formal letter to Pfizer updating the emergency authorization. They said that, based on the scientific evidence available, “it is reasonable to believe” the bivalent “may be effective” and that it “is reasonable to conclude” the known and potential benefits outweigh the known and potential risks.

More

FDA Authorizes Updated COVID-19 Vaccine for Children as Young as 6 Months Old (theepochtimes.com)

Compensation denied to hundreds of Covid vaccine victims suffering 'severe' side effects

EXCLUSIVE: More than 800 Covid-19 vaccine claims have been rejected by the Vaccine Damage Payment Scheme (VDPS), most of them on the grounds of causation.

22:01, Wed, Mar 15, 2023 | UPDATED: 08:12, Thu, Mar 16, 2023

URGENT research is needed to investigate adverse vaccine reactions but institutions fear rocking the boat, say scientists. They believe the issue has become so politicised they are increasingly reluctant to ask questions. It comes as hundreds of people who became seriously ill after having the Covid-19 jab have found themselves locked out of the Vaccine Damage Payment Scheme. They are backed by the Daily Express Justice for Jab Victims campaign and politicians including Tory MP Danny Kruger.

Immunologists and virologists say more should be done to aid the forgotten victims.

One expert insisted: "We need to figure out how we make [future vaccinations] better."

It comes as those adversely affected by side effects of the Covid jab rapped the VDPS as "unfit for purpose".

If claims are successful it provides a one-off payment of £120,000 to families or individuals left bereaved or at least 60 per cent disabled by vaccines.

But campaigners say the disability threshold is too high and the 44-year-old scheme "outdated".

The VDPS has also been hampered by a huge backlog - with just 878 cases out of 4,000 Covid claims settled by assessors on behalf of the Department of Health.

Dr William Murphy, an immunologist at the University of California, says more experiments and data are needed on vaccines to help those suffering from rare serious side-effects.

He said: "They will give us insights into how the immune system is working not only as a preventative [measure]. [But] there seems to be, within the scientific community, a reluctance to really question all the different pathways - either with the vaccine or with the infection itself."

The hurdles researchers are having to negotiate were highlighted by Professor Michael Lunn, clinical lead in neuroimmunology at University College London. He and his team identified a "small but significant" rise in cases of Guillain-Barre Syndrome after an AstraZeneca vaccine was given.

GBS is a rare debilitating neurological condition that can cause paralysis, severe pain and numbness.

Prof Lunn pinpointed an "unusual spike" in cases between March and April 2021 compared with historical rates for the same months.

More

Compensation denied to hundreds of Covid vaccine victims suffering 'severe' side effects | Express.co.uk

Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker

Some other useful Covid links.

Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Centers for Disease Control Coronavirus

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html

The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)

https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

HAYDALE WORKS ON GRAPHENE UNDERFLOOR HEATING

 16 Mar 2023

Advanced materials group Haydale Graphene Industries is working with two firms on developing and distributing its graphene underfloor heating.

The ink heater technology applied to clothing worn by British athletes at the Tokyo Games has been applied in an initial prototype for domestic UFH.

It has the potential to replace gas central heating and link into other energy efficient technologies.

The development, which is being supported by Cardiff-based City Energy, will produce a further prototype that will lead towards a market-ready CE product that can be tested in a home environment. 

When fully certified, Stockton Heath-based plumbing supplier Plumbase intends to distribute the product through ITS nationwide branches with installation through City Energy's installer network.

Graphene UFH offers an energy efficient way to heat homes with the UK commitment to reducing emissions to Net Zero by 2050 and the likely ban on domestic gas boilers in new houses in two years' time.

Keith Broadbent, chief executive of Ammanford-based Haydale, said: "Haydale has been working closely with City Energy to look at new technologies aimed at net zero. 

More

Haydale works on graphene underfloor heating | Wales Business News (insidermedia.com)

Another weekend and will any more US/Swiss banks blow up? Not now that Uncle Scam and the District of Crooks has nationalised and insured all bank deposits up to any amount. Of course, that creates many new big problems down the road, but that will be a big future story for another day. Have a great weekend everyone.

You read constantly that banks are lobbying regulators and elected officials as if this is inappropriate. We don't look at it that way.

Jamie Dimon, CEO JP Morgan Chase.

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