Strait Talking. Stocks, It’s Over! But Is It?

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Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.

Groucho Marx

In his desperation to get the Strait of Hormuz open, and get critical supply chains working again, is President Trump folding?

Settling for a no nukes deal, that Iran had long ago abandoned back in 2003.

Wall Street and the global stock casinos clearly think so.

But what if they’re wrong? What if Iran just runs out the clock?

Wall Street Hits New Record on Peace Hopes

For markets, it seems that no new bad news means good news.

April 15, 2026 at 11:14 PM GMT+1

Tehran and Washington appear to be edging closer to a second round of talks and a ceasefire extension over the US-Israel war with the Iran. Still, Donald Trump’s decision to escalate the standoff by blockading Iranian traffic through the Strait of Hormuz risks doing even more damage to Iran’s biggest oil customers.

Pakistan’s military said a delegation from the country arrived in Iran on Wednesday as Islamabad continues to mediate the exchange of messages between the two sides. Iran sees a prolonging of the US blockade as “a prelude to a breach of the ceasefire,” said Ali Abdollahi, the commander of Iran’s joint military headquarters, according to state TV. Iran’s armed forces “will not permit any exports or imports to continue in the Persian Gulf, the Sea of Oman or the Red Sea” if the blockade continues, he said.

On Wall Street today, the lack of bad news from the Persian Gulf was taken as good news. Stocks extended their streak of gains, pushing both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indexes to record highs as investors piled into equities on optimism over a ceasefire—and robust corporate earnings. —David E. Rovella

Wall Street Hits Record on Peace Bet: Evening Briefing Americas - Bloomberg

S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite close at fresh records as traders look past Iran war fears: Live updates

Updated Wed, Apr 15 2026 6:39 PM EDT

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite rose to new all-time highs on Wednesday, building on the week’s strong gains as investors remained hopeful about the Iran war potentially ending soon.

The broad market index gained 0.80%, ending at 7,022.95. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.59% to 24,016.02, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 72.27 points, or 0.15%, to close at 48,463.72. Both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 closed at records, with the tech-heavy index posting an 11th day win streak and the broad market benchmark notching its 10th positive session out of 11.

Stocks have been riding high this week on the possibility that a peace deal between the U.S. and Iran could materialize. The S&P 500, which fully recovered from its Iran war losses on Monday, has risen 3% this week. The Nasdaq and Dow, meanwhile, have added nearly 5% and more than 1% week to date.

“The setup coming into [the war] was that market participants had de-risked to a degree in anticipation that maybe things might get bad, and then as that seems like it’s maybe less of a likelihood, they’re needing to buy,” said Thomas Martin, senior portfolio manager at Globalt Investments. “People don’t want to miss out on an up market.”

President Donald Trump offered more hope to investors that the war may not last much longer, saying in an interview with Fox Business Wednesday that the Iran war is “very close to over” and claiming once again that Iran wants to “make a deal very badly.”

A second round of negotiations between Washington and Tehran is under discussion, a White House official told CNBC Tuesday. Nothing has been officially scheduled yet, noted the official, who asked not to be named to discuss the administration’s internal plans.

“Is there going to be a deal that will allow the Strait of Hormuz to open up and there to be less rhetoric on stopping the flow of goods? The market seems to be saying that it thinks there will be,” Martin said.

Broadcom was a key winner of Wednesday’s session, rising 4%. This comes on the heels of Meta Platforms extending its partnership with Broadcom to deploy custom chips using the chipmaker’s technology.

Stock market news for April 15, 2026

Japan’s Nikkei 225 hits record high as hopes for U.S.-Iran deal fuel broader rally in Asia stocks

Published Wed, Apr 15 2026 7:48 PM EDT

Japan’s Nikkei 225 hit a record Thursday amid a broader rally in Asia markets, tracking overnight gains on Wall Street as hopes of a U.S.-Iran deal grew.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 2.19%, paring earlier gains after hitting a record fueled by technology and consumer cyclical stocks. Daikin Industries was the top performer, after activist investor Elliott Investment Management pushed the company to improve performance and narrow its valuation gap with peers. The Topix gained 1.33%.

Stocks have rallied this week on the possibility of a peace deal between the U.S. and Iran. The S&P 500, which fully recovered from its Iran war losses on Monday, has risen 3% this week. The Nasdaq and Dow, meanwhile, have added around 5% and more than 1%, respectively.

The Iran war is “very close to over,” President Donald Trump said in a Fox Business interview that aired on Wednesday, again claiming that Tehran wants to “make a deal very badly.”

A White House official told CNBC on Tuesday that a second round of negotiations between Washington and Iran is under discussion. According to the official, who asked not to be named to discuss the administration’s plans, said nothing has been officially scheduled yet.

Oil prices were volatile in Thursday trade. The West Texas Intermediate gained 0.39% at $91.65 per barrel as of 11:46 p.m. ET. International benchmark Brent crude was flat at $94.96 per barrel.

South Korea’s Kospi advanced 1.96% while the small-cap Kosdaq was 1.36% higher. India’s Nifty 50 rose 0.56% higher.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.32%. Labor data released Thursday showed that Australian employment rose 1.4% in March from a year ago, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%.

Mainland China’s CSI 300 index rose 0.90%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index extended early gains and rose 1.41%.

China’s economy accelerated in the first quarter, supported by robust export growth, which helped offset tepid domestic demand, even as the growth outlook was clouded by the Iran war-fueled energy shock threatening global demand.

Gross domestic product grew 5% in the three months to March, data from the National Statistics Bureau showed Thursday, accelerating from 4.5% in the prior quarter and exceeding economists’ forecast for a 4.8% growth in a Reuters poll.

S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures both traded around the flatline. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 45 points, or 0.1%.

Overnight on Wall Street, the S&P 500 gained 0.80%, ending at 7,022.95. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.59% to 24,016.02, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 72.27 points, or 0.15%, to close at 48,463.72.

Both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 closed at records, with the tech-heavy index posting an 11th-day win streak and the broad market benchmark notching its 10th positive session out of 11.

Asia markets rise as hopes of U.S.-Iran deal boost Wall Street benchmarks

Saudi Arabia pressures Trump to scale back war on Iran

Mohammed bin Salman wants the US president to lift quarantine of Iranian ports, say diplomats

Published 14 April 2026 9:47pm GMT+01:00

Saudi Arabia is pressing the United States to scale back its war in the Middle East, fearing Iran could retaliate by blockading the Red Sea and paralysing the kingdom’s economy.

Mohammed bin Salman, the Saudi crown prince, wants Donald Trump to lift his naval quarantine of Iranian ports in the Persian Gulf and return to negotiations, Gulf diplomats say.

The Saudi lobbying reflects concerns in Riyadh that Tehran would retaliate against the US blockade by instructing its Houthi allies in Yemen to seal the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, a Red Sea chokepoint through which much of the kingdom’s oil supplies pass.

The abrupt shift by the Arab world’s lone Iran hawk – first reported by the Wall Street Journal and confirmed to The Telegraph by two Gulf officials — has emerged amid growing regional anxiety about Mr Trump’s handling of the war.

More

Saudi Arabia pressures Trump to scale back war on Iran

Beige Book Captures Initial Toll of Iran War

April 15, 2026 | 14:38

Regional economic conditions deteriorated somewhat and cost pressures intensified due to the Iran conflict, according to the Fed's regional survey of business contacts. The survey, which captured the first two weeks of the conflict, said overall activity increased at a "slight to modest pace" in the majority of districts, a mild downgrade from the prior report's "slight to moderate pace". The blame was put squarely on the Middle East conflict "as a major source of uncertainty", resulting in "many firms adopting a wait-and-see posture" on hiring and investing. Consumer spending increased, albeit slightly, with many Districts reporting "signs of consumer financial strain", now aggravated by rising fuel costs. Business expectations for the economy were marked down from "optimistic" in the prior report to "varied amid widespread uncertainty". Piling on, the New York Fed District reported continued modest declines in economic activity, a counterpoint to its release today of a survey showing improved manufacturing conditions in the region.

The one semi-bright spot in the Beige Book is that employment was reported as "steady to up slightly", a mild improvement from the previous report's description of stability only. This supports recent data that suggest the slowdown in job growth may be ending.

While the report said price growth "mostly remained moderate overall", rising energy prices were pressuring costs for transportation, plastics, and fertilizers. Moreover, "input cost pressures beyond energy-related increases were also widespread", partly due to tariff-driven increases in metal prices.

All told, the stagflation-like tone of the Beige Book will reinforce the Fed's wait-and-see posture.

Beige Book Captures Initial Toll of Iran Wa

In other news.

Donald Trump’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is a dangerous gamble | The Economist

Donald Trump’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is a dangerous gamble | The Economist

Here's a look at recent events

15 April 2026

• ----The US and Iran could resume talks "over the next two days", President Donald Trump has said, following the failed negotiations in Pakistan over the weekend
• The US said no ships have passed through its blockade of Iranian ports and coastal areas in the first 24 hours. Tracking data, verified by the BBC, showed four Iran-linked ships crossed the Strait of Hormuz after the blockade began
• China has condemned the blockade, calling it "dangerous and irresponsible". Iran said it is a "grave violation" of its sovereignty

Trump says Iran talks could resume 'over next two days' as US says ships turned back by blockade - BBC News

Prediction markets will grow to $1 trillion by 2030, Bernstein estimates

Published Tue, Apr 14 2026 2:07 PM EDT Updated Tue, Apr 14 2026 2:12 PM EDT

Prediction market volumes are booming in 2026, on pace to more than quadruple this year alone and reach an estimated $1 trillion in the next four years, according to Bernstein.

Volumes have already surged in the first few months of this year, the investment bank wrote in a report Tuesday, with Kalshi and Polymarket, the two largest platforms, seeing about $60 billion in market volume year-to-date — more than the $51 billion in total prediction market volume in all of 2025.

Growth rates for the platforms rival the artificial intelligence boom, according to Bank of America. Analyst Julie Hoover in a note last week called Kalshi one of the “fastest growing non-AI companies” in the U.S. Weekly trading volume on Kalshi — which controls more than 90% of the U.S. prediction market — has surged to more than $3 billion today from about $100 million a year ago, she wrote.

While prediction market volumes initially jumped in 2024 around the U.S. presidential election, they eventually surpassed those levels in 2025 as sports, cryptocurrency and macroeconomic contracts became popular.

$1 trillion by 2030

Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani now estimates that total market volumes in 2026 will reach $240 billion, a 370% increase compared to last year. At a compound annual growth rate of roughly 80% between 2025 and 2030, Chhugani sees prediction market trading volume of $1 trillion a year by the start of the next decade.  

Chhugani expects increased regulatory clarity at the federal level will boost the potential market, and that blockchain tokenization and integration with cryptocurrencies is enabling more liquidity. The makeup of traded contracts is also likely to change, he said.

“We expect [the] institutional market to develop around economics, business and political contracts, as investors seek more direct and discrete exposure to events,” he wrote. While sports contracts make up more than 60% of trading volume today, he sees that being cut in half by 2030. “We also expect hedging demand from corporates, [and] insurance firms exposed to specific event risks.”

While Kalshi and Polymarket dominate the space, new names are building a presence. Robinhood, DraftKings and Underdog are all starting or have already launched their own prediction market verticals, Bank of America’s Hoover said.

Public proxies

Robinhood and Coinbase Global are the key public market proxies for the private prediction market companies, Chhugani said. Robinhood’s prediction markets hub is now a year old, generating $350 million in annual recurring revenue, and accounting for some 30% of Kalshi total volume. The market is the digital finance platform’s fastest-growing business, and could encourage Robinhood to develop its own exchange, the analyst said. 

While Chhugani’s long-range estimates assume the resolution of long-term regulatory risk, in the near-term state and federal regulators and the prediction markets themselves are engaged in a pitched battle. “Legal action is now pending in 14 states, plus another 4 congressional bills [are] also pending amid concerns around insider trading,” Hoover wrote. 

Some states have begun legal action against prediction markets, citing their authority to regulate sports betting, while the Commodity Futures Trading Commission is fighting states, claiming it has the only authority to regulate prediction markets. 

Still, Chhugani has faith that this won’t derail the multi-year outlook.

“Despite ongoing state-level legal challenges, we expect platforms like Kalshi, Polymarket, and public proxies (HOOD, COIN) to benefit from increasing regulatory clarity and growing alignment with federal regulators (SEC, CFTC) — a key driver of market legitimacy and mainstream adoption,” he wrote.

Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes a CNBC minority investment.

Prediction markets will grow to $1 trillion by 2030, Bernstein says

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians.

US Treasury's Bessent says China has been unreliable partner by hoarding oil during war

By Andrea Shalal Wed, April 15, 2026 at 12:32 AM GMT+1

WASHINGTON, April 14 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Tuesday China had been an unreliable global partner during the Middle East war by hoarding oil supplies and limiting exports of some goods, mirroring ‌its actions with medical goods during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Bessent told reporters he had spoken with Chinese officials about the ‌issue. He declined to answer a question about whether the dispute would derail U.S. President Donald Trump's plan to visit Beijing in mid-May, but said Trump and ​Chinese President Xi Jinping had a very good working relationship.

"I think the message for the visit is stability. We've had great stability in the relationship since last summer; that emanates from the top down," he said. "I think that communication is the key."

"I think the message for the visit is stability. We've had great stability in the relationship since last summer; that emanates from the top down," he said. "I think that communication is the key."

But Bessent took China to task for its actions during the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, which has sent oil prices up by as much as 50% and triggered supply ‌chain disruptions.

"China has been an unreliable global ⁠partner three times in the past five years; once during COVID, when they hoarded healthcare products, second on rare earth," Bessent said, referring to Beijing's threat last year to curb rare earth exports.

Now it was stockpiling ⁠more oil instead of helping to ease the global demand shortage caused by Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which carries 20% of the world's oil, he said.

China already had a strategic petroleum reserve that was roughly the same size as that of the entire reserve held ​by ​the 32-member International Energy Agency, but it was continuing to purchase oil. "They ​continued buying, and they've been hoarding, and they have ‌cut off exports of many products," Bessent said.

Liu Pengyu, a spokesperson for the Chinese embassy in Washington, said the shortages facing the global energy market were rooted in "the tense situation in the Middle East" and called for an immediate end to military operations there.

More

US Treasury's Bessent says China has been unreliable partner by hoarding oil during war

Global recession is inevitable if Strait of Hormuz stays shut, says Citadel’s Ken Griffin

Published Tue, Apr 14 2026 10:36 AM EDT Updated Tue, Apr 14 2026 12:04 PM EDT

Citadel CEO Ken Griffin said Tuesday that the global economy is headed toward a recession if the Strait of Hormuz stays shut for much longer.

“Let’s assume [the strait is] shut down for the next six to 12 months — the world’s going to end up in a recession,” Griffin said on stage at the Semafor World Economy conference in Washington, D.C. “There’s no way to avoid that.”

As a result, the world is going to see a massive shift toward alternative fuel sources, including wind, solar and nuclear, he added. To be sure, the hedge fund leader thinks the consequences of the war would have been worse if the U.S. delayed any strikes until Iran’s military capabilities had grown.

Stocks have managed to rebound back to where they were before the U.S. first attacked Iran in February, but the optimistic sentiment among investors is contingent on the duration of the war in the Middle East. Many expect risks of an escalation in tensions between the two countries are not at all priced into the market.

Global economies especially in Asia remain vulnerable to spikes in oil prices, which remain elevated at around $100 a barrel. That’s off their highs during the conflict, but remain far above where they were before the war, at just below $70 a barrel.

Citadel's Ken Griffin: Global recession inevitable if Strait of Hormuz stays shut

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section Updates as they get reported.

Woman forced to leap from balcony to avoid terrifying e-scooter battery fire

The London Fire Brigade said the woman was left trapped in a bedroom with 'smoke travelling in' after the bike battery caught alight at a flat complex in Lewisham, south-east London

11:41, 14 Apr 2026

A woman who was forced to vault a balcony to escape a suspected e-scooter battery fire was rushed to hospital with a "serious injury" after she plunged three storeys.

The London Fire Brigade (LFB) has issued an e-bike and e-scooter safety warning after a lithium battery ignited at a flat on Reculver Road in Lewisham, southeast London, following a "catastrophic failure" on April 12. The bike was believed to have been charging for 12 hours when it caught alight, damaging part of a hallway and coughing out smoke.

The LFB said one woman was left trapped in a bedroom with smoke travelling in, forcing her to jump down from a third-floor balcony and onto the street below in a desperate bid to escape the house fire.

The service said she was assisted by firefighters before being taken to a local hospital by attending paramedics from the London Ambulance Service (LAS) after being injured. She was treated for smoke inhalation and "serious" injuries sustained from her fall. A second occupant, a man, was led to safety by firefighters.

It is believed the fire was caused by "the catastrophic failure of an e-bike battery that was being charged in the flat’s hallway", and had been on charge for up to 12 hours.

Woman forced to leap from balcony to avoid terrifying e-scooter battery fire - The Mirror

Approx. 5 minutes.

Massive BYD Fire: How Many EVs Burned?

Massive BYD Fire: How Many EVs Burned? - YouTube

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World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org) 

A strong nation, like a strong person, can afford to be gentle, firm, thoughtful, and restrained. It can afford to extend a helping hand to others. It's a weak nation, like a weak person, that must behave with bluster and boasting and rashness and other signs of insecurity.

Jimmy Carter