Baltic Dry Index. 2095 +29 Brent Crude 94.42
Spot Gold 4822 Spot Silver 76.62
US 2 Year Yield 3.81 -0.03
US Federal Debt. 39.090 trillion
US GDP 31.307 trillion.
Successful investing is anticipating the anticipations of others.
John Maynard Keynes
To everyone’s relief, President Trump performed yet another TACO, I think possibly his thirteenth, agreeing to a two week ceasefire, while negotiations start on a peace deal on Friday in Pakistan.
Nowhere would that relief be greater than in the Pentagon, which came within an hour of following President Trump’s decision to start a war crimes bombing campaign against Iran’s civilian population, a population Trump promised back in January to protect. Another TACO of a despicable kind.
Since Nuremberg, “I was just following orders,” isn’t a defence.
Less relieved, the other countries of the Persian Gulf, Iraq excepted, who probably wanted Trump to finish off regime change in Iran.
Most likely now, a race to get the tankers, container ships car carriers and LNG/LPG ships stranded in the Persian Gulf out.
My guess is that the only ships likely to enter the Gulf during the ceasefire will be those able to unload or load fast enough to get in and out again within 14 days.
South Korea stocks lead gains in Asia as oil
prices plunge after U.S.-Iran ceasefire deal
Published Tue, Apr 7 2026 7:46 PM EDT
Asia-Pacific markets rallied on Wednesday
after U.S. President Donald
Trump said he had agreed to suspend planned
attacks on Iranian infrastructure for two weeks.
The move was “subject to the Islamic
Republic of Iran agreeing to the COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING of the
Strait of Hormuz,” he wrote on Truth Social.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in
a post on X on behalf of the country’s Supreme National Security Council said
Tehran’s armed forces will “cease
their defensive operations.”
Trump noted the 2-week ceasefire was
subject to Iran agreeing to a complete, immediate and safe opening of the
Strait of Hormuz. Araghchi said that safe passage via Hormuz Strait will be
possible via coordination with Iran’s armed forces for the next two weeks.
U.S. crude oil prices plunged on the news.
The West Texas Intermediate contract
for May delivery trimmed some losses, but was still down 14% at $96.86 per
barrel as of 9:36 p.m. ET.
Asia markets rallied with South Korea’s
Kospi surging 5.8%, while the small-cap Kosdaq was up 4.1%. Index heavyweights
Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix jumped 7.12% and 9.61%, respectively.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 widened gains to
4.95%, while the Topix rose 3.1%.
China’s CSI 300 gained 1.95%, while Hong
Kong’s Hang Seng Index advanced 2.56% as trading resumed following holiday.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 2.7%.
“For longer, energy prices were destined
to be fairly inflationary around the world. And if there’s now a bit of a
belief or some visibility that energy prices can come back down, that’s better
for inflation, better for the outlook of central bank cuts and so on,” said
Josh Rubin, portfolio manager at Thornburg Investments.
Futures tied to the Dow Jones
Industrial Average rose by 718 points, or 1.5%. S&P 500 futures added
1.6%, and Nasdaq 100 futures climbed
1.7%.
Overnight in the U.S., the S&P 500 inched up 0.08%
and closed at 6,616.85, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced
0.10% to settle at 22,017.85. The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed
85.42 points, or 0.18%, closing at 46,584.46.
Asia-Pacific:
Kospi, Nikkei 225, oil, Hang Seng Index
U.S.-Iran ceasefire relief rally lifts global
assets as oil plunges below $100
Published Tue, Apr 7 2026 11:06 PM EDT
A 2-week ceasefire between the U.S. and
Iran triggered a relief rally across risk assets, sending stocks higher and oil
tumbling, while persistent demand for gold and Treasurys pointed to a market
still hedging against uncertainty.
U.S. President Donald Trump said he had
agreed to suspend
planned attacks on Iranian infrastructure for two weeks, subject to
Iran agreeing to a “COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of
Hormuz.”
Stocks surged across regions, with Asian
benchmarks and U.S. futures climbing, as investors seized on the announcement
as a potential turning point in a conflict that has rattled markets for
weeks.
South Korea’s Kospi surged over 5%, while
the small-cap Kosdaq was up 3.4%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 4%, while
the Topix was 3.2% higher. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 advanced
2.7%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng
Index was up more than 2%, while mainland China’s CSI 300 rose 2.15%.
Futures tied to the Dow Jones
Industrial Average rose by 967 points, or 2.1%. S&P 500 futures added
2.1%, and Nasdaq 100 futures climbed
2.3%.
Bitcoin jumped over 2% to
$71,508.
Safe havens, which would typically
sell-off in a de-escalation, also found support. Spot gold rose 2.2% to
$4,803.83 per ounce, while gold
futures added over 3% to $4,835.90.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in
a post on X said that Tehran will stop its “defensive
operations,” adding that safe passage for ships through the Strait of
Hormuz was “possible” for the next two weeks in coordination with the country’s
armed forces.
Investors also flocked to U.S. Treasurys,
with yields on 10-year and 20-year debt down 9 basis points to 4.253% and
4.839%, respectively. Yields on 30-year Treasurys fell 7 basis points to
4.851%.
“We’re effectively seeing a relief rally
layered on top of a still fragile macro backdrop,” said Billy Leung, investment
strategist at Global X ETFs.
“Equities are responding to de-escalation
headlines, but investors are not fully removing hedges given how uncertain the
underlying situation remains,” he told CNBC via email.
Leung said the current move reflects more
of a positioning reset than a decisive shift back to a sustained risk-on
environment.
“Relief and hedging can coexist,” Leung
said. “Investors are adding risk tactically but still holding or even adding to
defensives as protection against reversal or other sudden headlines.”
That dynamic helps explain why bonds and
gold are continuing to attract inflows even as equities rally.
Underlying macro concerns also remain
unresolved. While falling oil prices may ease immediate inflation fears, the
broader impact of energy spikes during the war is still filtering through the
global economy. “Growth concerns are building alongside the inflation shock,”
Leung added.
Oil prices, meanwhile, plunged below $100
per barrel. The West Texas
Intermediate contract fell more than 14% to $96.98 per barrel, while
the international benchmark Brent lost more than 12% to around $96 per barrel.
U.S.-Iran
ceasefire: gold, oil, stocks, treasuries
Gulf countries scramble to intercept missiles
hours into U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement
Published Tue, Apr 7 2026 10:38 PM EDT
Many Middle Eastern countries reported
incoming missiles and drones from Iran on Wednesday, triggering air defenses
across the Gulf within hours of a newly announced two-week ceasefire between
Washington and Tehran.
The U.S. and Iran agreed to the temporary
truce just before U.S. President Donald Trump’s deadline to launch
massive attacks if no deal was reached. The ceasefire, if it holds, would open
a two-week negotiating window with U.S. and Iranian
delegations expected to meet in Islamabad on Friday.
The ceasefire, brokered by Pakistan, was
contingent on the “complete, immediate, and safe opening” of the Strait of
Hormuz, Trump said.
Iranian officials said in a statement on
Wednesday that “if attacks against Iran are halted, our Powerful Armed Forces
will cease their defensive operations.”
Tehran added that safe passage through the
strait would be possible through coordination with its armed forces and with
“due consideration of technical limitations” — caveats that may give Iran some
room to define compliance on its own terms.
Despite the reprieve, missiles were still
launched from Iran towards Israel and several Gulf states.
The Israeli military said it had identified ballistic missile attacks from
Iran early Wednesday, with early warnings issued in central and northern parts
of the country.
The United Arab Emirates said its air
defense systems were intercepting
missiles and drones and urged the public to remain in safe places.
“The sounds heard in scattered areas of the country are the result of the UAE
air defense systems intercepting ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and
drones,” the ministry said.
Saudi Arabia’s Civil Defense organization
also issued early warnings of “potential danger” across the
country, including Riyadh. Kuwait, Bahrain and
Qatar also issued alerts or activated defenses as threats emerged across the
region.
Ceasefire kicks in
The continued attacks raised questions
about whether the ceasefire agreement can hold, particularly if negotiations
stall or collapse during the two-week period.
The U.S.and Israel have launched more
than 3,000
strikes on Iran since the conflict erupted on Feb. 28, and Iran has
retaliated with a total of 1,511 strikes against targets in Israel and the
neighboring Gulf countries, according to ACLED, a crisis monitoring
organization.
Weapon stockpiles across the region
are reportedly under strain as some Gulf states have used
a significant portion of their interceptor inventories. By late March, the UAE
and Kuwait had spent roughly 75% of their Patriot missile interceptor stocks,
while Bahrain was estimated to have depleted as much as 87%, according to the
Jewish Institute for National Security of America.
Iran’s ambassador to Pakistan, Reza Amiri
Moghadam, on Tuesday warned Gulf states to “pay attention to their
conditions and relations with Iran.” He warned that “sooner or later America
will leave this region by accepting defeat, and you will stay.”
Tehran has intensified its attacks against
several Middle Eastern countries since the war started, using them as leverage
over Gulf countries and the U.S.
While Gulf air defenses have been largely
effective against ballistic missiles, they have struggled to repel Iranian
drones, which are cheaper to produce and usually launched in swarms,
overwhelming interceptors.
Recent strikes have inflicted significant
damage on energy infrastructure in the region, with a recent attack wiping
out 17% of output at Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG plants, damage that
would take years to recover.
UAE presidential adviser Anwar Gargash has
reportedly said earlier this week that the war must end with a long-term solution for Gulf security, and warned
against any ceasefire that fails to accomplish that. “We don’t want animosity
with Iran, but with this regime, there is no trust.”
Gulf
countries scramble to intercept missiles after U.S.-Iran ceasefire
In other news, don’t confuse me with the
facts. Drought ahead?
Offbeat Wall Street research firm says it sent an
analyst to Strait of Hormuz. Here’s what they learned
Published Mon, Apr 6 202 62:48 PM EDT Updated
Mon, Apr 6 2026 4:47 PM EDT
As the world’s oil traders parsed
satellite images and official statements for clues on the fate of the Strait of Hormuz, one research
firm seems to have taken a different approach: It says it sent an analyst
directly into the conflict zone.
Citrini
Research,
which issued a market-shaking bearish call on
artificial intelligence earlier this year, said it dispatched an analyst to
Oman’s Musandam Peninsula, where the person traveled by boat to observe
shipping activity firsthand amid escalating tensions between Iran and the U.S.
What the analyst claims to have found challenges the dominant narrative
gripping global markets that the critical oil artery is effectively shut.
Instead, the analyst, whom the firm did
not name due to the sensitivity of the activity, found that vessels are still
moving through the strait, with traffic picking up in recent days to roughly 15
ships per day, according to the firm’s report
posted on Substack.
While far below normal levels, the flow suggests the disruption is partial and
evolving rather than absolute.
“Tankers passing through four or five a
day, completely dark on AIS. The volume, they said, is higher than what the
data suggests, and it’s been accelerating in the past couple days through the
Qeshm channel,” Citrini’s post said.
AIS is a ship-tracking system that
broadcasts a vessel’s location, speed, identity and route. Citrini asserts that
the actual shipping volume is higher than reported data as many ships turn off
their transponders and are not visible on official tracking systems.
Citrini didn’t immediately respond to
CNBC’s request for comment.
Based on the Substack post, the analyst’s
interviews with fishermen, smugglers and regional officials point to a system
in which Iran is selectively allowing ships to pass. Tankers are required to
secure approval before transiting waters near Iranian territory, creating what
the firm described as a “functional checkpoint” rather than a blockade, Citrini
said in its post.
“This should drive home that what we’ve
described as our view of the conflict is nuanced — it doesn’t fit neatly into
‘strait open crude down’ or ‘strait closed crude parabolic,’” the firm said.
To be sure, the findings are based on a
single field trip and anecdotal accounts that are difficult to independently
verify, particularly given limited transparency in the region.
The firm said it expects a more prolonged
disruption that embeds a lasting risk premium into oil markets. That view
underpins a preference for longer-dated crude exposure, with the firm favoring
December 2026 WTI contracts over the front month.
“We think the disruption is longer and the
new normal involves a permanent risk premium, but that we’ll likely see as high
as 50% of pre-conflict traffic within the next 4-6 weeks,” Citrini said.
Wall Street firm
Citrini Research analyzes Strait of Hormuz
Epic winter drought creates a bleak situation for
farmers — and your food
If rainfall shortages and record heat
continue, the effects may ripple throughout the U.S. food supply, with the cost
of beef already surging.
April 7, 2026 at 6:00 a.m. EDT
Justin Perry’s family has been farming the
rolling hills of the Nebraska panhandle for four generations, but none of them
can remember a winter as warm and parched as this one.
There was no steady rain to gently soak
the soil. No blanket of snow to insulate the fields and pasture. Just warm, dry
winds that swept across the landscape, sucking moisture from every inch of
exposed earth.
Now spring has arrived, along with
forecasts for continued drought that could imperil Perry’s winter wheat and
summer planting. An extraordinary
March heat wave sent
temperatures soaring to almost 90 degrees, further baking the soil. And to the
north, Perry can see smoke billowing from record-setting
wildfires that
have consumed hundreds of thousands of acres of ranches and farmland.
“This is feeling really bleak,” Perry
said. “This might be one of those scenarios that breaks some guys.”
All across the lower 48 states, farmers
like Perry are reeling from the hottest and third-driest September to February
stretch on record. As of March 31, the last date for which data is available,
nearly 60 percent of the U.S. was in drought, according to the U.S. Drought
Monitor.
With the exception of the Midwest’s sprawling corn and soybean farms, the dire
conditions encompass many of the regions that grow the country’s food, from
peanuts in the South to wheat and cattle in the Great Plains to produce in the
Southwest.Ask The Post AIDive deeper
If the combination of rainfall shortages
and unprecedented heat continues, experts say, it could have ripple effects
through the nation’s food supply, with some products, like beef, already
projected to see prices surge.
“We’re in a position here where we’re
going into the growing season and into the spring with record low or
near-record low soil moisture across the country,” said Department of
Agriculture meteorologist Brad Rippey. “Things are bad and getting worse in a
hurry.”
Threats to crops and livestock
Some of the driest conditions are in the
South, where the growing season is well underway. More than three-quarters of
sugarcane-producing areas, 83 percent of rice-producing areas and a whopping 96
percent of the peanut-producing region is besieged by
drought.
More
Epic winter
drought creates a bleak situation for farmers — and food - The Washington Post
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians.
Thousands
of small UK firms’ energy bills set to more than double due to Iran war
6
April 2026
Thousands
of independent businesses across the UK are braced for their energy bills to
more than double owing to the sharp rise in heating oil costs as the war in
Iran pushed Europe’s fuel market prices to fresh record highs.
About
7% of all small and medium-sized companies warm their properties and provide
hot water using heating oil, which in some cases has more than doubled in
recent weeks.
Companies
in rural areas are often not connected to the gas grid, meaning they have an
even greater reliance on heating oil, which is a form of kerosene linked to the
cost of jet fuel. It is used by about 17% of rural small and medium-sized
enterprises (SMEs), according to the Federation of Small Businesses (FSB).
The
trade association has heard from members who have already begun rationing their
fuel use to cope with the sharp rise in prices over recent weeks.
Anthony
Jenkins, the owner of a hotel and restaurant in North Yorkshire, said his
heating oil supplier had charged 54.9p a litre in January but had asked for
129p in late March.
“Many
rural businesses, including ours, need to rely on heating oil, but the price
increases have been extraordinary. Our supplier refused to give us a firm quote
for over a week after we booked a delivery, and told us the day before that it
would be 116% higher than before the crisis,” Jenkins said.
“We
took only half what we usually do, and we’ve asked our guests to help us to
keep costs down by turning down their radiators if they are too warm rather
than opening a window. They have all been happy to help because they are paying
higher prices to fill up their cars, so they understand.”
Jenkins
said he hoped to rely more on solar heating for hot water as the days become
longer and brighter to avoid inflating his £3,000-a-year heating oil bill.
“Luckily, we fixed our electricity contract a few days into the conflict, but
even then, deals were disappearing from the market,” he said.
The
FSB, which represents about 200,000 businesses and sole traders, has called on
the UK’s competition watchdog to include the SME sector in its investigation
into the heating
oil market as
the global energy supply shock fuelled record high prices on Europe’s diesel
and jet fuel wholesale markets.
North-west
European jet fuel and diesel prices surpassed $1,900 (£1,434) and $1,600 a
tonne respectively on Thursday, jumping to fresh all-time highs as market
participants braced for a further escalation in the Middle East conflict over
the long Easter weekend, according to market intelligence firm Argus.
More
Thousands of small
UK firms’ energy bills set to more than double due to Iran war
Fish
and chips shops issue huge warning for Brits
6
April 2026
Britain's
beloved fish and chip shops are being hit by new pressures caused by the Iran war. There
are warnings that chippies could have to put up prices or even look to cut
portion sizes as they too begin to feel the effects of the war in the Middle
East.
Shop
owners are facing rising costs as fishermen are hit by skyrocketing fuel prices
because of Iran's continued chokehold of the Strait
of Hormuz.
This, in addition to the increasing cost of potato fertiliser and chip oil,
means price rises are on the horizon for many fish and chip shops, reports say.
One fisherman based in Peterhead, Scotland, said a tank of diesel to trawl for
cod and haddock - the most popular fish at chippies - in the North Sea had
doubled to about £10,000 since the outbreak of the
Peter
Bruce told the AFP news agency extra fuel costs could go over more than
£100,000 a year.
He
said fishermen are concerned the public would "stop buying so much fish
and chips and they'll stop going out for meals so much".
Lancashire
fish and chip shop owner Andrew Crook, president of the National Federation of
Fish Friers, told The
Telegraph that
businesses are considering buying cheaper fish from abroad or reducing portion
sizes.
Mr
Cook, who said he did not want to put up prices, told the newspaper:
"We're definitely under pressure. We've got extremely high fish prices,
we've got energy prices; wages go up continually."
There
were around 10,500 fish and chip shops in the UK in 2024.
However,
the industry has reported a long-term decline in consumption of the traditional
meal, regarded by many as the UK's national dish.
Seafish,
a public body supporting the industry, said in its annual report that the cost
of a fish and chips portion had risen more than 50% in the five years to July
2024.
Stricter
fishing regulations and the Ukraine war has also
already had an impact on the UK's fish and chips shops, The Telegraph reports.
Fish and chips
shops issue huge warning for Brits
‘All
roads lead to higher prices and slower growth,’ warns IMF chief as Iran war
hits global economy
Published
Tue, Apr 7 2026 5:06 AM EDT
Higher
inflation and weaker growth ahead are inevitable for the global economy as a
consequence of the Iran war, the head of the International Monetary Fund warned
on Monday as the institution prepares to cut its forecasts.
“All
roads now lead to higher prices and slower growth,” IMF managing director
Kristalina Georgieva told Reuters in an interview on Monday night.
Before
the war, the IMF anticipated issuing a small upgrade on its outlook for global
growth of 3.3% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027, according to Georgieva.
But
those expectations have since been upended as the Iran conflict has sent
shockwaves through the global economy that are unlikely to unravel anytime
soon, even if the war is brought to a rapid resolution.
The
U.S. and Israel’s attack on Iran six weeks ago has triggered a significant
shock to energy supply as the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a
vital shipping corridor, brought marine traffic in the Gulf to a standstill.
Shipping
through the crucial maritime passage has slowly resumed, with 8 tankers
reportedly transiting Monday, compared to an average of fewer than 2 transits
per day in March, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence.
But
traffic volumes remain at a fraction of pre-war levels, with an average of 20
million barrels of crude oil and products transiting through per day in 2025.
Global
oil supply has reduced by 13%, according to the IMF, while severe damage has
been done to other critical supply chains. Georgieva warned that the poorest
countries lacking sufficient reserves will be the most affected.
“We
are in a world of elevated uncertainty,” she added, citing geopolitical
tensions, technological advancements, climate shocks and demographic shifts.
“All of this means that after we recover from this shock, we need to keep our
eyes open for the next one.”
The
dual threat of higher prices and slower growth is driving fears of a return to
“stagflation” among consumers, business leaders and policymakers. The Iran
war is expected to dominate discussions at next week’s spring meetings of the
World Bank and the IMF, with Georgieva presenting a speech on Thursday.
“Directionally,
it is stagflation,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics.
“It’s higher inflation and weaker economic growth that is the result of policy
— tariff policy and immigration policy.”
‘All roads lead to
higher prices and slower growth,' warns IMF chief
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section Updates as they get reported.
How One Mining Operation Proved Battery Power Works in the
Toughest Conditions
April 6, 2026
When MidSouth Aggregate needed to
replace an aging service truck for their quarry operations, Dale Long faced a
challenge familiar to fleet managers across the mining and construction
sectors: how do you power mobile equipment in remote, demanding environments
without burning through fuel budgets and accelerating maintenance costs?
Long’s solution offers a roadmap for
operations wrestling with what the industry calls “hard-to-electrify”
applications. Rather than accepting the traditional trade-off between
capability and efficiency, MidSouth Aggregate built a Ford F-550 service truck
around Vanair®, a Lincoln Electric Company’s EPEQ® Electrified Power Equipment® that
delivers full functionality while cutting fuel consumption.
The results from 18 months of operation
validate an approach that addresses one of clean transportation’s persistent
obstacles: proving that battery-powered equipment can handle punishing
real-world conditions without compromising performance or creating new
operational headaches.
The Hard-to-Electrify Challenge
Mining and quarry operations present
unique obstacles for electrification. Service trucks work in dusty conditions,
navigate rough terrain and often spend hours at remote job sites where
traditional solutions meant letting engines idle continuously to power
equipment. The conventional setup burns 10 to 15 gallons of diesel during a
typical eight-hour service call, with most fuel consumed simply to keep the
engine running.
Beyond fuel costs, constant idling
creates cascading expenses. Oil change intervals increase, engine mounts wear
faster, exhaust components need frequent replacement and overall equipment
lifecycles compress. The noise factor compounds operational challenges, making
communication difficult and increasing technician fatigue during long service
calls.
For fleet managers evaluating
electrification, these applications represent a critical test. If
battery-powered systems can deliver reliable performance in mining
environments, they can work almost anywhere.
More
How One Mining Operation Proved Battery Power Works
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt Clocks
(usdebtclock.org)
Once doubt begins it spreads rapidly.
John Maynard Keynes
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