Baltic
Dry Index. 2066 +36 Brent Crude 111.34
Spot Gold 4688 Spot Silver 73.01
US 2 Year Yield 3.84 +0.05
US Federal Debt. 39.085 trillion
US GDP 31.304 trillion.
We economists don't know much, but we do know how to create a shortage. If you want to create a shortage of tomatoes, for example, just pass a law that retailers can't sell tomatoes for more than two cents per pound. Instantly you'll have a tomato shortage. It's the same with oil or gas.
Milton Friedman
We are roughly 24 hours away from President Trump unleashing a war crime on the hapless Iranian population unless he TACO’s yet again.
Not that the rest of the world can stop him, but it would permanently stain America’s reputation and leadership of the free world.
In the stock casinos, almost nobody cares. Why let a war crime get in the way of making money. Such is the way of the world.
Yet traducing American leadership probably comes at a long term cost. Reducing US Treasuries to the status of Chinese or Russian Treasuries will likely be very expensive for a USA deep in 39 trillion in fast rising out of control debt.
What happens next in Iran, will likely determine what happens next in the global economy over the next few decades.
Asia-Pacific markets trade mixed as investors
assess Trump’s hardened rhetoric on Iran war
Published Mon, Apr 6 2026 7:48 PM EDT
Asia-Pacific markets whipsawed in volatile
trading on Tuesday, with major indexes flipping to losses in the morning
session, as traders assess Iran war-related developments.
U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to
target Iran’s civilian infrastructure if a peace deal is not reached in less
than 24 hours, while also signaling that the Iranian leadership was negotiating
in earnest.
Trump reiterated his demand for Iran to
open the Strait of Hormuz by 8 p.m. Tuesday, which would allow traffic to start
flowing again through the vital route for global energy supplies — warning the
U.S. would decimate every bridge and power plant within four hours of that
deadline not being met.
The U.S. and Iran are weighing a
framework plan to end their 5-week-old conflict, with Tehran pushing
back against Trump’s pressure to swiftly reopen the Strait of Hormuz under a
temporary ceasefire, and repeating its demand for a lasting end to the war.
Iran has rejected the U.S. ceasefire
proposal and floated its own 10 points, including an end to hostilities in the region, a
protocol for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, lifting of sanctions,
and reconstruction, according to Axios.
Trump responded to the proposal, saying
that “They made a ... significant proposal. Not good enough, but they have made
a very significant step. We will see what happens.”
The West Texas Intermediate crude
futures widened gains to 3.4% at $116.2 per barrel as of 12:28 a.m. ET. Brent crude gained about
1.7% at $111.59 per barrel.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 advanced
1.4%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 slid
0.17%, wiping out modest gains earlier in the session, while the broad-based
Topix was flat. South Korea’s blue-chip Kospi was flat, and the
small-cap Kosdaq widened losses to 1.5%.
Mainland China’s CSI 300 was down 0.29%,
and Hong Kong markets remained closed on Tuesday for the Easter holiday.
India’s Nifty 50 and Sensex were each 0.5%
down in early trade, tracking volatile trading in other Asian markets.
“As the deadline approaches, [Trump] wants
to apply even more pressure to get them across the finish line,” Brian
Jacobsen, chief economic strategist at Annex Wealth Management.
The headline-driven sharp swings in the
markets, however, have created opportunities for investors to reshuffle their
portfolios for longer-term returns, Jacobsen said. “When geopolitical worries
hit the market, it tends to move prices indiscriminately. That’s when a
discriminating investor can upgrade their portfolio.”
Jacobsen pointed to “decent entry points”
in companies across industries including utilities, financials, industrials,
and technology, while naming defense and energy companies as the “first-order”
beneficiaries in the wake of the conflict.
Overnight on Wall Street, S&P 500 futures were
little changed and Nasdaq 100
futures were down about 0.2%. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose
48 points, or 0.1%.
During Monday’s regular session, the S&P 500 rose 0.44%, while
the Nasdaq Composite added
0.54%. The blue-chip Dow gained
165.21 points, or 0.36%.
Asia-Pacific
markets trade mixed as investors assess Trump's hardened rhetoric on Iran war
Private
Credit Poster Child Blue Owl Hits Record Low
The drop capped weeks of declines fueled
by mounting concerns over the health of the $1.8 trillion market.
April 6, 2026 at 11:01 PM GMT+1
Private credit poster child Blue Owl
Capital closed
at a record low Monday, capping weeks of declines fueled by mounting
concerns over the health of the $1.8 trillion market. The stock fell 1.4% to
close at $8.45, which is below its previous nadir, set in late 2022.
The stock hit a record
intraday low before the long holiday weekend after the firm said it
will limit
redemptions from two of its private credit funds following a surge in
withdrawal requests. Business development companies, a type of private credit
fund for retail investors, have been inundated with such requests amid growing
anxiety around the market’s lending practices and exposure to businesses that
are vulnerable to artificial intelligence disruption.
Blue Owl’s shares in particular have
become one of the favored ways to bet on a sustained fallout in private credit
due to its elevated exposure to software companies that could be laid low by
AI. —David
E. Rovella
Private Credit’s Blue Owl at New Low: Evening Briefing Americas - Bloomberg
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon in annual letter cites
risks in geopolitics, AI and private markets
Published Mon, Apr 6 2026 6:00 AM EDT
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie
Dimon is calling for a broad recommitment to American ideals as his bank
navigates geopolitical uncertainty, a teetering economy and the revolutionary
impact of artificial intelligence.
Dimon in his annual letter to
shareholders, published
Monday,
noted the country’s 250th anniversary as “the perfect time to rededicate
ourselves to the values that made this great nation of ours — freedom, liberty
and opportunity.”
“The challenges we all face are
significant. The list is long but at the top are the terrible ongoing war and
violence in Ukraine, the current war in Iran and the broader hostilities in the
Middle East, terrorist activity and growing geopolitical tensions, importantly
with China,” Dimon said. “Even in troubled times, we have confidence that
America do what it has always done — look to the values that have defined our
singular nation and sustained our leadership of the free world.”
Dimon, the longtime leader of the world’s
largest bank by market cap, is among the most outspoken of U.S. corporate
leaders. His annual letter offers not only a matter of record for his firm’s
performance, but also sweeping perspectives on the global state of affairs.
In Monday’s letter, Dimon noted headwinds
including global conflicts, persistent inflation, private market upheaval and
what he called “poor bank regulations.”
Dimon said that while regulations like
those put in place after the 2008 financial crisis “accomplished some good
things ... they also created a fragmented, slow-moving system with expensive,
overlapping and excessive rules and regulations — some of which made the
financial system weaker and reduced productive lending.”
He specifically cited negative
consequences of capital and liquidity requirements, the current construction of
the Federal Reserve’s stress test and a “badly handled” process at the Federal
Deposit Insurance Corporation.
Dimon also said JPMorgan’s reaction to
revised proposals for Basel 3 Endgame and a global systemically important bank
(GSIB) surcharge — issued by U.S.
regulators last month —
were “mixed.”
“While it was good to see that the recent
proposals for the Basel 3 Endgame (B3E) and GSIB attempted to reduce the
increase in required capital from the 2023 proposals, there are still some
aspects that are frankly nonsensical,” Dimon said.
The CEO said the aggregate proposed
surcharges of about 5%, the bank would need to hold “as much as 50% more
capital across the vast majority of loans to U.S. consumers and businesses when
compared with a large non-GSIB bank for the same set of loans.”
“Frankly, it’s not right, and it’s
un-American,” he said.
On trade and geopolitics
Dimon identified geopolitical tensions as
the primary risk facing his bank, namely the wars in Ukraine and Iran and their
impacts on commodities and global markets — deeming war “the realm of
uncertainty.”
“The outcome of current geopolitical
events may very well be the defining factor in how the future global economic
order unfolds,” he said. “Then again, it may not.”
----On private markets
Dimon also spoke to recent upheaval in the
private markets,
as fears around loans made to
software firms spur massive redemption
requests at
private credit funds.
“By and large, private credit does not
tend to have great transparency or rigorous valuation ‘marks’ of their loans —
this increases the chance that people will sell if they think the environment
will get worse — even if actual realized losses barely change,” Dimon said.
The executive added that actual losses are
already higher than they should be relative to the environment.
“However this plays out, it should be
expected that at some point insurance regulators will insist on more rigorous
ratings or markdowns, which will likely lead to demands for more capital,” he
said.
More
JPMorgan CEO Jamie
Dimon annual letter cites risks in geopolitics, AI, private markets
Former Trump Aide Alleges $400 Million Market
Manipulation Tied To Trump: 'A Financial Operation'
Mon, April 6, 2026 at 10:46 AM GMT+1
Skybridge Capital co-founder and former
White House Communications Director Anthony Scaramucci alleged
Friday that President Donald Trump‘s administration orchestrated a
massive insider
trading scheme
tied to geopolitical announcements that yielded up to $400 million in illicit
profits.
The $400 Million Strike Moratorium
In a recent video statement on X,
Scaramucci detailed highly suspicious trading activity occurring just one hour
before Trump announced a five-day moratorium on Iran strikes.
According to Scaramucci, insiders
purchased $1.5 billion in notional S&P E-mini futures contracts. This was
about four to six times the normal market volume. This took place alongside a
simultaneous purchase of $192 million in crude oil futures.
“They made between $300 and $400 million
dollars off those trades,” Scaramucci claimed. He further alleged that Trump
fabricated a phone call with an Iranian official to justify the market-moving
moratorium, noting that Iranian authorities denied the conversation ever took
place.
“These people are making hundreds upon
hundreds of millions of dollars trading on information that only exists inside
the most powerful office in the world,” Scaramucci said. “This isn’t politics
anymore. This is a financial operation running out of the White House.”
The White House did not immediately
respond to Benzinga’s request for comment.
A Pattern Of Suspicious Trades
Scaramucci's accusations compound a
growing list of market anomalies surrounding the administration’s foreign
policy. Earlier in March, SPY call options skyrocketed an unprecedented 24,650%
in roughly 80 minutes after Trump unexpectedly declared the Iran conflict “very
complete.”
Additionally, the Pentagon recently faced
intense scrutiny following reports that a broker for Defense Secretary Pete
Hegseth attempted to move millions into defense ETFs just weeks before
the U.S. launched military operations. The Pentagon vehemently denied the
report, calling it “fabricated.”
Global Mockery
The alleged market manipulation has even
drawn taunts from foreign adversaries. Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad
Bagher Ghalibaf recently mocked Trump's market-moving statements,
calling them a “setup for profit-taking” and advising Wall Street to treat the
administration’s updates as a “reverse indicator.”
“Whatever you call it,” Scaramucci warned
the public regarding the administration’s trading, “they are laughing at you
and they are laughing at me while they do it.”
More
Former Trump Aide
Alleges $400 Million Market Manipulation Tied To Trump: 'A Financial Operation'
In other news, flight disruption ahead?
Could your holiday flight be cancelled due to lack
of fuel?
3 April 2026
With each day that passes since the start
of war between the US, Israel and Iran, the impact on people in Britain
increases.
Could your holiday flight be cancelled due
to lack of fuel? That's the question increasingly many people are asking after
reports that the final tanker carrying jet fuel from the Middle East to the UK
will arrive imminently.
Michael O’Leary, chief executive of
Ryanair, has warned of “the risk of supply disruptions in Europe in May and
June” unless the war ends quickly.
From the start of April, Pakistan has told
foreign pilots to arrive with as much fuel as possible for their return
journey. The announcement comes as some Asian countries are grounding flights
and European airlines are making plans to deal with shortages. So what is
possible, what is probable and what are your rights? These are the key
questions and answers.
“The final tanker carrying jet fuel from
the Middle East to the UK” sounds ominous. How worried should we be?
Knowing that there are normally half a
dozen tankers en route from the Gulf region to the UK with jet fuel, but the
last one is nearing port, sounds worrying. But the airlines, the airport and
the government all point to range of other supplies – including the US, Nigeria
and the Netherlands.
But talking to the big UK and Irish
airlines, they are confident that supplies are sufficient to cover the busy
Easter spell and the rest of April. Beyond that, visibility is more difficult.
The Department for Energy Security and Net
Zero told The Independent: “Jet fuel shipments are continuing to
arrive in the UK. The UK receives imports of jet fuel from India, US and the
Netherlands as well as smaller amounts from a range of other countries."
Ryanair boss Michael O’Leary told Sky
News: “The fuel companies are happy there won’t be disruption till early May.
“But if the war continues, we do run the
risk of supply disruptions in Europe in May and June, and obviously we hope the
war will finish sooner than that and the risk to supply will be eliminated.
“If the war finishes by April and the
Strait of Hormuz reopens, then there is almost no risk to supply. If the war
continues, and the disruption to supply continues, we think there is a
reasonable risk of some low level – maybe 10 to 25 per cent of our supplies –
might be at risk through May and June.”
What’s happening further afield?
The picture is more concerning in parts of
Asia, which are largely dependent on supplies of aviation fuel from the Gulf.
Airlines in Vietnam and the Philippines
are cancelling some domestic and international flights.
Were I on a backpacking trip relying on
budget airlines in South East Asia, I would keep a close eye on flight
bookings.
Pakistan has just put out a Notice to Air
Missions (“Notam”) saying: “Due to disruption in supply chain of jet fuel, as a
precautionary measure airlines are advised to carry maximum fuel from abroad
and minimise uplift of jet fuel from Pakistan.”
More
Could your holiday
flight be cancelled due to lack of fuel?
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians.
Saudi
Arabia charges record premium for its oil
World’s
biggest crude exporter to ask Asian customers for around $20 a barrel on top of
benchmark prices
7
April 2026
Saudi
Arabia, the world’s biggest oil exporter, has raised the premium it charges for
its crude to record levels as the Iran war puts strains on global energy
supplies.
State-run
Saudi Aramco will charge customers in Asia $19.50 on top of the Oman-Dubai
benchmark for a barrel of Arab Light crude, its main oil grade, in May. Over
the past 26 years, the premium has never before exceeded $10 a barrel.
Pricing
for all grades of Saudi oil to every destination has been raised to record
levels. Customers in Europe will need to pay $24-$30 a barrel over the Brent
benchmark, which is currently trading at around $108 a barrel, for Saudi oil
next month.
The
vast majority of Saudi Aramco’s exports usually load in the Gulf, but the
Iranian threat to shipping through the vital Strait of Hormuz export route has
forced flows to be redirected.
On
Monday, the price of crude fell on reports that a ceasefire proposal had been
shared with Iran and the US, but it was unclear if the parties would agree to
the plan.
Aramco
is pumping as much Arab Light and Extra Light crude as possible through a cross-country pipeline to ships loading on its west
coast. The Red Sea port of Yanbu is handling more shipments than ever before,
but still Saudi Arabia was only able to export around 50 per cent of its normal
volumes in March, according to ship tracking data.
The
loss to global oil supplies caused by the Middle East conflict is most acutely
felt by refineries that need sour crude grades that typically come from the
Middle East. These refineries are mostly in Asia.
The
United Arab Emirates is able to send out some oil from the port of Fujairah,
but all other shipments of oil produced in the Gulf must contend with Iran’s
control of the Strait of Hormuz. Around a fifth of the world’s oil usually
passes through the crucial waterway.
Some
Chinese, Indian and Omani vessels have made it through the strait, while Iran’s
military has said Iraqi ships are free to pass. Pakistan’s government claimed
to have struck a deal that would allow 20 ships to sail through under its flag.
But in general, shipping through the narrow waterway remains heavily
restricted.
On
Monday attempts by Qatar to export liquefied natural gas through the strait
appeared to have been aborted.
The
Opec+ oil cartel on Sunday agreed to increase its oil production in May but the
move was symbolic as its spare production capacity is stuck behind the strait.
Saudi Arabia charges
record premium for its oil
US crude premiums climb to record levels as Asia, Europe compete for
supply
Mon, April 6, 2026 at
10:57 AM GMT+1
SINGAPORE, April 6
(Reuters) - Spot premiums for U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude have jumped to
all-time highs as competition between Asian and European refiners for supply
heats up to replace Middle Eastern oil flows disrupted by the Iran war,
industry sources said.
Europe is typically the
largest importer of U.S. crude, but competition has escalated with Asian buyers
scouring for supply from the Americas to Africa and Europe to replace Middle
Eastern oil that is unable to move through the Strait of Hormuz.
The jump in crude prices
is driving up costs and widening losses for refiners on both continents,
sources and analysts said, putting severe pressure on companies including
state-owned firms that are required by governments to keep producing fuel for
national security.
"Asian refiners,
shut out of Middle Eastern supply, are bidding aggressively for every
available Atlantic Basin barrel," said Paola Rodriguez-Masiu, chief oil
analyst at Rystad Energy, in a note dated April 3.
'EVERY
DAY THERE'S A NEW PRICE'
Offers for WTI Midland
crude delivered to North Asia in July on very large crude carriers had premiums
of $30 to $40 a barrel, depending on the benchmark used, traders said.
One trader pegged the
premium at $34 a barrel to Dubai quotes while another put it at $30 a barrel
above dated Brent. Two others said offers have gone closer to $40 a barrel
above an August ICE Brent basis.
Those levels are up from
premiums of close to $20 a barrel for deals concluded in late March and early
April, when Japanese refiners including Taiyo Oil purchased WTI crude, traders
said.
"Every day there's a
new price," one of the traders said, adding that Asian refiners face
severe losses from the premiums.
Another trader said
refiners would be better off reducing crude runs and buying products - if
anyone is offering.
Spot premiums jumped
after the prompt monthly spread for WTI futures hit its widest backwardation
on Thursday. Backwardation refers to when prompt prices are higher than those
in future months.
Wider discounts on U.S.
crude oil compared with global benchmark Brent have also spurred demand for
tankers on the U.S. Gulf Coast, reducing vessel availability in the region and
driving up freight rates.
In Europe, bids for WTI
Midland delivered to the continent climbed to a record premium of close to $15
a barrel against dated Brent on Thursday. [CRU/E]
"At current physical
differentials and freight rates, European refiners buying spot crude cannot
make money running those barrels through their systems," Rodriguez-Masiu
said.
US crude premiums climb to record levels as Asia, Europe compete for
supply
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section Updates as they get reported.
World’s
biggest battery maker takes ambitions to the high seas
China’s
CATL wants to electrify global shipping fleets but hurdles remain to
large-scale adoption
6 April 2026
CATL, the world’s biggest battery maker,
has vowed to “spare no effort” to electrify parts of the global shipping fleet
as it tries to replicate its success with electric vehicles on the high seas.
The Chinese group, which controls 37 per
cent of the market for EV batteries and 22 per cent for energy storage systems
in power grids and data centres, has deployed batteries on about 900 ships,
mostly smaller craft operating close to the Chinese coastline, at ports or in
rivers.
Electrifying parts of the maritime sector is
central to Beijing’s broader goals of decarbonisation and reducing reliance on
foreign resources. The International Maritime Organization aims to halve global
shipping emissions, which account for 3 per cent of total carbon emissions, by
2050.
Batteries, which are best suited to
nearshore operations, are among a suite of alternatives to highly polluting
heavy-fuel oil. Chinese companies are also exploring commercialisation of clean
fuels such as green methanol, ammonia and hydrogen.
The hunt for alternatives has gained
greater urgency after the world’s energy supply chains were rocked by
US-Israeli attacks on Iran and the subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz,
a vital transport route for oil and gas from the Middle East.
Neil Beveridge, who leads Bernstein’s
China energy research, said the long-term consequence would be an acceleration
of “the global electrification megatrend”.
In a sign of CATL’s commitment to the
sector, Su Yi, who leads its marine business unit, told the FT she planned to
more than double her team’s size this year to about 500.
The current focus, Su said, is to
produce batteries that meet the “extremely high” requirements of operating on
water, including a long lifespan for battery cells and safety in ocean
conditions.
CATL declined to provide a sales target, but a
spokesperson said it was “very confident in the strong market potential”.
The battery maker reported a net profit
of Rmb72.2bn ($10.4bn) in 2025, up 42 per cent on the previous year, driven by
strong demand in energy storage systems. Its Shenzhen-listed shares have risen
about 13 per cent since the start of the Iran war.
CATL is seeking to collaborate with
ports and governments to create a new marine battery industry from scratch.
Municipalities such as Guangzhou, one of China’s shipbuilding hubs, have
started offering subsidies for some battery-powered vessels.
More
World’s biggest battery maker takes ambitions to the high seas
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt Clocks
(usdebtclock.org)
The key insight of Adam Smith's Wealth of Nations is
misleadingly simple: if an exchange between two parties is voluntary, it will
not take place unless both believe they will benefit from it. Most economic
fallacies derive from the neglect of this simple insight, from the tendency to
assume that there is a fixed pie, that one party can gain only at the expense
of another.
Milton Friedman
No comments:
Post a Comment