Baltic Dry Index. 2665 -08 Brent Crude 105.33
Spot
Gold 4709 Spot Silver 76.94
U
S 2 Year Yield 3.78 -0.05
US
Federal Debt. 39.161 trillion
US
GDP 31.357 trillion
Tomorrow is 40 years on from the Chernobyl
nuclear disaster in what is now Ukraine. Sellafield, Three Mile Island, Fukushima.
When will the world stop building nuclear disaster-prone threats to mankind?
The farmer and manufacturer can no more live without profit than
the labourer without wages.
David Ricardo
According
to the head of the International Energy Agency, Trump’s disastrous Gulf War has
permanently changed the way the world will get its energy going forwards.
A
massive switch to electrification will replace oil and gas ahead, he thinks.
If
he’s only half way right, it’s the beginning of the end of the petro-dollar.
Solar, wind, nuclear tidal and even coal, trade in local currencies with little
to no reference to a dollar price, except of course in the USA.
If
Mr. Birol is right, by mid next decade the petro-dollar will be in rapid decline.
Global dollar usage will have fallen below 50 percent.
For
Trump’s USA rapidly approaching 40 trillion in official Federal debt, a world
going electric brings in a massive currency reality shock.
Though
a very imperfect long term hedge against the decline of the dollar reserve
standard, only physical holdings of gold and silver held outside of American
jurisdiction, seem appropriate.
‘The
damage is done’: global oil crisis has changed fossil fuel industry for ever,
IEA chief says
Exclusive:
International Energy Agency’s Fatih Birol, the world’s leading energy
economist, also says UK should largely forgo North Sea expansion
Fri
24 Apr 2026 16.00 BST
‘The damage is done’: global oil crisis has changed fossil fuel industry for
ever, IEA chief says
Exclusive:
International Energy Agency’s Fatih Birol, the world’s leading energy
economist, also says UK should largely forgo North Sea expansion
The
oil crisis triggered by the Iran war has changed the fossil fuel industry for
ever, turning countries away from fossil fuels to secure energy
supplies, the world’s leading energy economist said.
Fatih
Birol, the executive director of the International Energy Agency
(IEA), also said that, despite pressure, the UK should forgo much of its
potential North Sea expansion.
Speaking
exclusively to the Guardian, Birol said a key effect of the US-Israel war on
Iran was that countries would lose trust in fossil fuels and demand for them
would reduce.
“Their
perception of risk and reliability will change. Governments will review their
energy strategies. There will be a significant boost to renewables and nuclear
power and a further shift towards a more electrified future,” he said. “And
this will cut into the main markets for oil.”
Birol
said there was no going back from the crisis: “The vase is broken, the damage
is done – it will be very difficult to put the pieces back together. This will
have permanent consequences for the global energy markets for years to come.”
While
focused on the global picture of shortages and future demand, the IEA chief
also urged caution over the UK’s potential plans. The oil industry and its
allies have called for increased
North Sea drilling, including giving
the go-ahead to the Jackdaw and Rosebank fields that have received
exploration licences but not production permits.
Birol
said: “It is up to the government, but these fields would not change much for
the UK’s energy security, nor would they change the price of oil and gas. They
would not make any significant difference to this crisis.”
----In
a wide-ranging interview, Birol said the vastly changed future outlook
presented expanded opportunities for renewable energy but also dangers that
could throw progress on the climate off track. As the longtime head of the
global energy watchdog, he is one of the most influential voices on governments
globally.
Birol
also said:
Continuing
high fossil-fuel prices could tempt developing countries to turn to coal, but
solar was competitive with coal on cost and was growing faster.
Renewables
offerred a no-regrets alternative and nuclear power was also likely to be
increased. Building
renewables was an option “I never heard that anybody ever regretted”,
he said. “I don’t see any downsides for renewable energy.”
Although
he called
for windfall taxes during the Ukraine crisis to skim some of the vast
unearned profits of energy companies, Birol said it was too early in this
crisis for new levies.
Impacts
on fertiliser,
food, helium, software and other industries would continue even
if the strait of Hormuz reopened.
This
crisis was “bigger than all the biggest crises combined, and therefore huge”,
he said. “I still cannot understand that the world was so blind-sided, that the
global economy can be held hostage to a 50km
strait.”
More
European
Energy Scarcity Arrives and Plans to Stay Awhile
April
24, 2026 at 5:06 PM GMT+1
A
short time ago, most people wouldn’t have batted an eyelash over a ship passing
through the Strait of Hormuz. But 55-days into the war on Iran, energy traders
are locked on every movement in the narrow passage, through which huge
volumes of the world’s oil,
gas, fuel and fertilizer used to flow.
With no
end in sight to US and Iranian efforts to blockade the channel, alarms
are ringing louder over the consequences
to the global economy. Goldman Sachs bankers
figure almost three-fifths of Persian Gulf oil exports have ceased.
With
dwindling fossil fuel reserves of its own, the situation looks particularly
dire in Europe. The International Energy Agency reported today that tight gas supplies will extend
into 2027. Scarcity on traded markets is already showing up in the data,
with liquified natural gas imports
dropping for
the first time in more than a year. European Union policymakers are adding an
additional challenge by cutting short term purchases of
Russian LNG, which
last year covered a significant part of the bloc’s consumption.
“Europe must have a lot more courage,” Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni told reporters in Cyprus yesterday, shortly before talking with her counterparts about the energy crunch. We’re told EU heads of government left knowing they’re in a bind that won’t be easy to solve. —Jonathan Tirone
European
Energy Scarcity Arrives and Plans to Stay Awhile - Bloomberg
Approx
24 minutes.
How
the 1% Kept Their Gold in 1933 Confiscation
How the 1% Kept Their Gold
in 1933 Confiscation
In
other news.
Emirates
boss Tim Clark says airline will resume full operations within 1-2 months of
Strait of Hormuz reopening
Clark
said Emirates is running at 65% capacity, with recovery dependent on corridor
reopenings and expected to normalise within two months
Fri
24 Apr 2026
Emirates
President Sir Tim Clark expects the Dubai carrier to restore capacity rapidly
after regional aviation disruption reduced operations and left parts of its
network inaccessible.
Clark
told the CAPA Airline Leader Summit in Berlin on Thursday that Emirates was
operating at more than 65 per cent of capacity, with about 13 per cent of
airports in its network still unavailable because of airspace restrictions.
“We
can get this back. The brand is particularly strong,” Clark said, adding that
passenger demand remained resilient despite longer routings and adjusted
schedules.
Bloomberg
mentions that while speaking from Dubai to the Capa Airline Leader Summit in
Berlin, Clark said the carrier is operating at 65 per cent of capacity, with
only about 13 per cent of the airports in its network still cut off. Once the
Strait of Hormuz reopens, there should be 1-2 months of disruptions before
things return to normal.
Capacity
recovery
Clark
said network restoration would depend on the reopening of key regional
corridors, after which Emirates expects one to two months of disruption before
operations normalise.
Regional
airspace restrictions have forced Middle East carriers to reduce schedules,
reroute services and manage fleet utilisation across longer flight sectors.
Emirates has kept passenger demand, fuel access and brand strength at the
centre of its recovery plan.
Clark
said Emirates was not concerned about jet fuel supply. He said the UAE had an
adequate supply and produced and refined Jet A-1 fuel domestically.
Emirates
entered the disruption from a record profit base. Emirates Group posted a profit
before tax of AED 12.2 billion for the first six months of 2025 to 2026, while
Emirates airline recorded AED 11.4 billion in profit before tax and AED 65.6
billion in revenue.
Fleet
investment
Emirates
carried a 79.5 per cent passenger seat factor in the first half of 2025 to
2026. Capacity measured in available seat kilometres rose 5 per cent, while
passenger traffic measured in revenue passenger kilometres increased 4 per
cent.
Clark
said Emirates would continue its aircraft retrofit programme as the carrier
uses available maintenance windows to upgrade cabins and maintain product
consistency.
Arabian
Business reported in November 2025 that Emirates had moved into the
next phase of its retrofit programme, with 60 A380S and 51 Boeing 777s
scheduled for cabin upgrades from August 2026.
Emirates
closed the 2024 to 2025 financial year with AED 21.2 billion in airline profit
before tax and AED 127.9 billion in airline revenue. Emirates Group revenue
reached AED 145.4 billion, with cash assets of AED 53.4 billion.
Clark
expects Emirates to remain the most profitable airline by the end of 2026,
supported by Dubai’s hub connectivity, premium cabin demand and wide-body fleet
deployment.
Five things to know about Chinese AI startup
DeepSeek
Beijing (AFP) – As DeepSeek
releases its first major new artificial intelligence model in over a year --
DeepSeek-V4 -- here are five things to know about the Chinese startup:
Issued on: 24/04/2026 - 07:39
Founded by Liang Wenfeng in the eastern
Chinese tech hub Hangzhou, DeepSeek started life in 2023 as a side project of
Liang's data-driven hedge fund that had access to a cache of powerful AI
processors made by US chip giant Nvidia.
It shot to global attention in January
2025 with the release of its R1 deep-reasoning large language model, which
sparked a US tech share sell-off.
Industry insiders were stunned by R1's
high performance -- at a level similar to ChatGPT and other leading US chatbots
-- and DeepSeek's claims to have developed it at a fraction of the cost.
Venture capitalist Marc Andreessen
described it as a "Sputnik moment" -- referencing the 1957 launch of
Earth's first artificial satellite by the Soviet Union that stunned the Western
world.
Censorship concerns
Like other Chinese chatbots, DeepSeek's AI
tools eschew topics usually censored in the world's second-largest economy,
such as the 1989 Tiananmen crackdown.
That and data privacy concerns have led
DeepSeek AI to be banned or restricted on government-issued devices in several
countries, including the United States, Australia and South Korea.
However, its low cost and ease of
deployment have made it a popular choice in developing countries, analysts say.
The company holds four percent of global
market share for chatbots, according to web traffic analysis company
Similarweb. ChatGPT dominates at 68 percent.
Open source
DeepSeek's systems are open-source --
meaning their inner workings are public, allowing programmers to customise
parts of the software to suit their needs.
That is the same for other major Chinese
AI players, including tech giant Alibaba, in contrast to the "closed"
models sold by OpenAI and other Western rivals.
The Chinese government has trumpeted its
lead in open-source AI technology, which it says can accelerate innovation.
"Chinese AI models are leading the
way in the open-source innovation ecosystem," National People's Congress
spokesman Lou Qinjian told policymakers this month.
Startup boost
The success of DeepSeek has galvanised
China's AI scene, despite hurdles posed by rivalry with the United States, and
fears of a global market bubble.
Shares in two leading Chinese AI startups,
Zhipu AI and MiniMax, soared on their market debuts in Hong Kong this year, and
it has been a similar story for Chinese chipmakers such as MetaX.
Shi Yaqiong and her team at Beijing-based
Jinqiu Capital told AFP there has been a "clear surge" in enthusiasm
around Chinese AI -- and competition among investors -- since the DeepSeek
shock.
Chip smuggling reports
DeepSeek's rise has not been without
controversy.
Reports, including in technology outlet
The Information, say DeepSeek has been skirting a US ban on the export of
top-end chips to China to train its new V4 model.
The Information said in December, citing
six people with knowledge of the matter, that DeepSeek developed V4 using
thousands of chips dismantled in third countries and smuggled to China.
DeepSeek did not respond to AFP's request
for comment. Nvidia did not respond to a request for comment but told The
Information that they had not seen any evidence of this and that "such
smuggling seems farfetched".
Five things to
know about Chinese AI startup DeepSeek
White House memo claims mass AI theft by Chinese
firms
24 April 2026, 00:13 BST
The White House has said it will work more
closely with US artificial intelligence (AI) firms to combat
"industrial-scale campaigns" by foreign actors to steal advances in
the technology.
Michael Kratsios, Director of Science and
Technology Policy, wrote in an internal memo that the administration had new
information indicating "foreign entities, principally based in China"
were exploiting American firms.
Through a process called
"distilling", such firms are essentially copying AI technology
developed by US companies, he said.
A representative of China's US embassy in
Washington DC said its development was "the result of its own dedication
and effort as well as international cooperation".
In the memo, Kratsios said the aim was to
"systematically undermine American research and development and access
proprietary information".
In an attempt avoid and halt
"malicious exploitation," he said the White House will be doing four
things:
- sharing
more information with US AI companies about "tactics employed and
actors involved" in distillation campaigns
- working
to "better coordinate" with companies to fight the attacks
- develop
a set of "best practices to identify, mitigate, and remediate"
them
- "explore"
how the White House can hold foreign actors accountable for such
distillation
The memo did not detail any specific plans
for action against foreign entities found to be undertaking distillation of US
AI technology.
A White House spokesperson declined to
comment beyond the memo.
A representative of China's US embassy in
Washington DC took issue with "the unjustified suppression of Chinese
companies by the US" in response to the memo
"China is not only the world's
factory but is also becoming the world's innovation lab," the
representative added.
More
White House memo claims mass AI
theft by Chinese firms - BBC News
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
The demand for money is regulated entirely by its
value, and its value by its quantity.
David Ricardo
Germany’s economy
was set to rebound. But soaring energy prices have derailed Europe’s biggest
comeback
Published Fri, Apr
24 2026 7:59 AM EDT
Europe’s biggest
economy was set for a rebound, but now it’s being hammered by soaring energy
costs caused by the Iran war, prompting the federal government to halve growth
forecasts.
Germany’s flagship
fiscal stimulus package is in the spotlight as ministers scramble to cushion
the impact of higher bills.
Before the war,
the country had been powered by rising industrial orders, dropping inventories,
and improving sentiment, thanks mainly to fiscal spending on defense and infrastructure.
But higher energy
prices and supply chain risks are “spoiling the German growth party before it
even started,” said Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro research at ING.
The Federal
Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy this week slashed its
growth forecast for 2026 to 0.5% from 1%, while its 2027 forecast was cut from
1.3% to 0.9%. Inflation is now projected to reach 2.7% this year and 2.8% the
next.
Brzeski noted that
industrial production was already “stuttering” before the war, sliding 0.3%
month-on-month in February and printing flat on an annual basis.
But now the Iran
conflict has sent business sentiment into freefall.
‘Trouble ahead’
On Friday, the Ifo
Institute for Economic Research’s latest business climate index — a key
temperature gauge of Germany’s economic mood — dropped to 84.4 in April, down
from 86.3 in March, its lowest level since May 2020, early in the Covid-19
pandemic.
Current
assessments dipped from 86.7 to 85.4 month-on-month, while forward expectations
tumbled from 85.9 to 83.3. Separately, the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment
slumped 16 points to -17.2 in April, its lowest reading since December 2022.
The ZEW tracker tumbled from +58.3 in February to -0.5 points in March,
indicating a rapid and deepening pessimism over the country’s economic outlook.
“What we are
seeing is that the German economy is hit hard by the Iran crisis,” Clemens
Fuest, president of Ifo, told CNBC on Friday. “Companies are telling us there
is trouble ahead.”
Germany remains
one of Europe’s largest net importers of energy, about 6% of which comes from
the Middle East, according to ING analysis, while its so-called
“energy-intensive” industries, which employ almost 1 million people, account
for about 17% of industrial gross value added.
More
Germany growth forecast cut on energy shock, signaling trouble ahead
Nestle to cut 450 jobs at UK chocolate factories -
makes KitKats, Aeros and Yorkies
The makers of beloved Nestle chocolate lines are
making sudden job cuts in the UK.
07:47, Fri, Apr 24,
2026 Updated: 07:48, Fri, Apr 24, 2026
The popular UK chocolate
company, Nestle, could cut as many as 450 jobs across the UK, union GMB has said. The
company is known for making several popular chocolate items such as KitKats,
Aero bars and Polos.
It comes after Nestle announced 16,000 job cuts worldwide in October last
year.
The company has factories
in Halifax in West Yorkshire, Tutbury in Derbyshire, Dalston in Cumbria, and
Staverton in Wiltshire.
Nestle's headquarters was
moved to Gatwick from Croydon. It moved all employees based at its City Place
office, which is located near Gatwick Airport, to a new site at Park House, Manor Royal BID from
September 2023.
KitKats are made in York
while is made in Nescafé is made in Derbyshire and Cumbria.
Quality Street, which is
also produced by the brand, is made in Halifax.
A spokesperson for Nestle said it announced
plans to “reduce our global workforce by 16,000 roles” last year and details of
any changes would be shared with staff affected first.
Announcing the mass cull
in October, Nestle said it needed to “change faster” and secure its future “as a
leader in our industry”, reports The Mirror.
The reductions are
expected to include around 12,000 “white-collar professionals” across business
functions.
This was expected to save
the company around one billion Swiss francs (£940 million) each year by the end
of 2027.
Charlotte
Brumpton-Childs, GMB National Secretary, said: “These job cuts will rip the
heart out of communities.
“Nestle workers – who make
some of the UK's best loved treats – have already put up with years of
uncertainty and job losses.”
The union will be
working closely with members and the company to “ease the pain” as much as
possible, Charlotte says.
A Nestle spokesperson
said: “As always, we will manage any changes in the right way and in
consultation with our people.
“Any proposed changes
will always be shared with those affected first and we have no further update
to give at this time.”
Technology
Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
CATL is launching sodium-ion batteries in EVs in 2026, aiming for
370+ miles range
Apr 22 2026 - 9:25 am PT
CATL is bringing sodium-ion batteries to EVs in 2026
During its Tech Day Event this week,
CATL revealed its latest battery innovations as it looks to maintain its
dominant lead on the global EV battery market.
The battery giant showcased major
breakthroughs, including its third-generation Shenxing
Ultra-fast charging battery,
capable of a full recharge (10% to 98%) in just 6 minutes and 27 seconds,
beating rival BYD’s Blade Battery 2.0 that offers 9-minute charging.
CATL confirmed during the event that its
sodium-ion batteries will begin rolling out in passenger EVs by the end of
2026.
CATL’s chief scientist, Wu Kai, said
during the event that LFP is “nearing its theoretical energy density limit,”
making it critical to focus on fast charging solutions. He added that
“Sodium-ion batteries offer broad potential for extreme temperatures and energy
storage applications.”
The Naxtra sodium-ion battery “marks
CATL’s transition from laboratory breakthrough to large-scale manufacturing,”
the company said.
After overcoming “hundreds of
engineering challenges,” the battery giant has achieved GWh-level
industrialization.
CATL said it had overcome four key
barriers this year: extreme water control, gas generation in hard carbon,
aluminum foil adhesion, and self-forming anode systems, paving the way for
full-scale mass production by the end of 2026.
Earlier this year, CATL launched the
sodium-ion batteries for light commercial vehicles. The 45 kWh sodium-ion
battery pack can charge at temperatures as low as -30°C (-20°F), and at -40°C
(-40°F), it still retains 90% of its usable capacity.
CATL’s sodium-ion batteries will begin
rolling out in passenger EVs by the end of the year, starting with the Changan Nevo A06. CATL and Changan unveiled the new
EV in February, deeming it the
world’s first mass produced EV with a sodium-ion battery.
The sodium-ion batteries achieve an
energy density of about 175 Wh/kg, but CATL aims to bring it on par with
lithium iron phosphate within the next three years, enabling up to around 600
km (372 miles) of CLTC driving range.
Sodium-ion batteries perform better in
cold weather and also offer a sustainable alternative to lithium with the
abundance of sodium.
CATL is launching sodium-ion batteries in EVs in 2026
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt Clocks
(usdebtclock.org)
Exponent
Calculator
Enter
values into any two of the input fields to solve for the third.
This
weekend’ s music diversion. More genius from Mr. Handel. Approx. 8 minutes.
G.F.Handel:
'Alla caccia / Diana Cacciatrice', Cantata HWV 79 (1707)
G.F.Handel: 'Alla
caccia / Diana Cacciatrice', Cantata HWV 79 (1707)
Next,
how funny money came into our world. Approx.
16 minutes.
Why
They Stopped Making Silver Coins in 1964 — The Real Reason They Hide
Why They Stopped
Making Silver Coins in 1964 — The Real Reason They Hide
Finally, Operation Bernhard, German economic warfare. Approx. 16 minutes.
Operation Bernhard: The Nazi Plot to Crash
Britain's Economy
Operation Bernhard: The Nazi Plot to Crash Britain's Economy
It is here we come to the heart of the matter. The economic principle of comparative advantage', 'a country may, in return for manufactured commodities, import corn even if it can be grown with less labour than in the country from which it is imported
David Ricardo
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