Baltic Dry Index. 2670 -07 Brent Crude 125.36
Spot Gold 4547 Spot Silver 72.26
US 2 Year Yield 3.92 +0.08
US Federal Debt. 39.181 trillion
US GDP 31.371 trillion.
The government solution to a problem is usually as bad as the problem.
Milton Friedman
Little need for my input this morning. Unless sanity returns to the District of Crooks, get ready for Trump’s Great Depression Two.
Asia-Pacific markets mostly fall as oil climbs on
Iran tensions, Fed holds rates
Published Wed, Apr 29 2026 7:47 PM EDT
Asia-Pacific markets mostly fell Thursday,
tracking overnight losses in key Wall Street benchmarks as oil prices hit
a wartime high following a report that the U.S. military would brief
President Donald Trump on potential action against Iran, while the Federal
Reserve held interest rates steady.
Oil climbed after Axios, citing two sources with knowledge of the matter,
reported that the U.S. Central Command was set to present Trump plans for
possible military action against Iran.
Trump had earlier reportedly rejected Tehran’s proposal to reopen the
Strait of Hormuz, signaling the naval blockade will remain in place until a
broader nuclear agreement is reached.
June futures for international
benchmark Brent crude
rose more than 5% to $124.5 a barrel Thursday, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate added
over 2% to $109.41.
Brent crude has surged to its highest
levels since mid-2022, LSEG data shows, as the Middle East conflict chokes
supplies.
In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 lost 0.43%.
Japanese markets declined as trading
resumed after a holiday. The benchmark Nikkei 225 lost 0.91%, while
the Topix fell 1.48%. South Korea’s Kospi was 0.36% higher while the small-cap
Kosdaq was down 0.25%.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index was down
0.36%, while the CSI 300 added 0.21%.
In the U.S., futures tied to the S&P 500 added 0.3%,
while Nasdaq 100 futures gained
0.5%. Dow Jones Industrial
Average futures fell 128 points, or 0.2%.
Overnight in the U.S., the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed
lower. The 30-stock index fell 280.12 points, or 0.57%, to close at 48,861.81
and notch a fifth straight losing day. The S&P 500 inched down 0.04%
to close at 7,135.95, while the Nasdaq Composite crept up
0.04% to 24,673.24.
Asia-Pacific
markets: Nikkei 225, Kospi, Hang Seng Index
Brent crude hits 4-year high, soaring past $126,
as U.S. military to reportedly brief Trump on action against Iran
Published Wed, Apr 29 20268:28 PM EDT
Oil hit a 4-year high Thursday following a
report that the U.S. military would brief President Donald Trump on potential
action against Iran, raising worries that armed conflict could resume, and
building on the American blockade of Iranian exports.
Axios reported that the U.S. Central Command was set
to present Trump plans for possible military action against Iran, citing two
sources with knowledge of the matter.
Trump had earlier reportedly rejected Tehran’s proposal to reopen the
Strait of Hormuz, signaling the naval blockade will remain in place until a
broader nuclear agreement is reached.
June futures for international
benchmark Brent crude
rose 6.84% to $126.10 a barrel as of 12:22 a.m. ET, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate added
3.14% to $110.24.
Brent crude has surged to its highest
levels since early 2022, LSEG data shows, as the Middle East conflict chokes
supplies.
Trump appeared to threaten Iran in a Truth
Social post on Wednesday, saying the country “better get smart soon!”
“Iran can’t get their act together. They
don’t know how to sign a nonnuclear deal. They better get smart soon!” Trump
said. The post was accompanied by an AI-generated picture of
Trump holding a gun with explosions in the background, and the words “NO MORE
MR. NICE GUY!”
Goldman Sachs estimates that exports
through the Hormuz chokepoint have fallen to just 4% of normal levels, while
stalled U.S.-Iran negotiations and a continued U.S. blockade tightening
supplies.
Constrained Iranian exports and limited
storage capacity could deepen supply disruptions if the blockade persists, the
bank’s analysts said, adding that boost to output from the UAE following its
OPEC exit is likely to materialize more gradually over the medium term rather
than offsetting near-term tightness.
However, the bank flagged emerging
downside risks to demand, noting global oil consumption in April may be about
3.6 million barrels per day lower than February levels, with weakness
concentrated in jet fuel and petrochemical feedstocks.
Brent
crude soars past $126 as U.S. military to brief Trump on action against Iran
Finally,
a different view on the Great Trump Error on war in the Persian Gulf.
A
very different Iran reality provided by President Reagan's Director of the
Office of Management and Budget, a conservative Republican.
It
might not matter much though as I think the USA and UK and EU have a serious
imminent diesel shortage crisis hitting later next month.
Practically
all that moves on the Missouri-Mississippi complex, Great Lakes, St. Lawrence Seaway
complex, moves by diesel power. Probably the Mackenzie river too.
In
Europe, the Rhine complex, the Danube complex, the Elbe, Rhone, River Po, moves
by diesel power.
In
road transportation, the vast majority of goods transportation also moves by
diesel.
David
Stockman thinks Iran can hold out for at least another 60 days. I don't think
diesel transportation can last, as we know it, for another 30 days.
Hoping
again to be wrong.
Soon
Comes The Mother Of All Supply Shocks, Part 1
The
Global Energy Order Is Breaking Down
Iran
war is accelerating shift from an oil market structured around economic
efficiency toward one shaped by politics and conflict
By David Uberti
April 29, 2026 5:30 am ET
The
Global Energy Order Is Breaking Down - WSJ
$200
oil — and two other scenarios — could tip the world into recession, says this
global bank
By
Steve Goldstein Published: April 29, 2026 at 5:48 a.m.
ET
Airlines
across Europe could shut down over high fuel prices, warns Wizz Air CEO
Wizz
Air CEO József Váradi said carriers already facing financial difficulties may
be especially vulnerable, and suggested British Airways and Air France could
also encounter challenges
11:00,
29 Apr 2026Updated 11:10, 29 Apr 2026
Airlines
across Europe could shut down over high fuel prices, warns Wizz Air CEO - Daily
Star
In other news.
Tariffs Leave Consumers and Companies Splitting
the Tab
Consumers shouldered 43% of the tariff
burden during the seven months after the US imposed sweeping levies, according
to an analysis by Alberto Cavallo, who has been tracking how tariffs
impact prices.
Featuring Alberto
F. Cavallo. By Ana
Elena Azpúrua on April 27, 2026.
How hard did a year of major tariff
announcements, trade negotiations, and rollbacks hit US consumers? Prices
surged at first, but then stabilized—until the war with Iran began.
US consumers absorbed up to 43% of the
tariff burden after the first seven months of the new tariffs, with the
remaining portion borne by US companies, according to estimates by the Harvard Business
School Pricing Lab Tariff Tracker. While retail prices rose quickly
following each levy announcement in 2025, they gradually leveled off through
February 27, the latest data available in the tracker.
“Most of the pass-through has likely
already occurred, assuming tariffs do not increase further,” explains Alberto
Cavallo, the Thomas S. Murphy Professor of Business Administration at HBS and
founder of the Pricing Lab. “This stability may be due to the rollback of
certain tariffs by the US government and the increasing likelihood of the
Supreme Court ruling against them.”
Cavallo’s team plans to continue its price
analysis to gauge the impact of the conflict in Iran, which began February 28
and immediately roiled markets and trade. Inflation, as measured by the
Consumer Price Index, jumped to 3.3% in the year through March from 2.4% in
February. In the meantime, here’s an updated look at prices during the past
year, capturing product shifts and “cheapflation.”
Imported goods saw larger price hikes
Compared to pre-tariff trends, prices for
imported goods rose about 7 percentage points, nearly twice the increase for
domestic goods (4.6 points).
----Cheapflation
hits lower-priced goods harder
Prices accelerated more for budget picks
than for premium items within the same category. This trend of
"cheapflation" probably had a greater impact on lower-income
households.
----From
swimwear to coffee, many goods became more costly
Cavallo’s analysis showed that prices of
household goods rose the most. While consumers were asked to pay significantly
more for coffee and some clothes. Hover over the images to see details:
----Tariffs'
impact on US inflation
Researchers found that the contribution of
tariffs to the Consumer Price Index has increased over time, as measured by
actual price changes relative to pre-tariff trends.
More, plus charts.
Tariffs Leave
Consumers and Companies Splitting the Tab | Working Knowledge
Jamie Dimon warns of ‘some kind of bond crisis’
ahead as global debt risks build
Published Tue, Apr 28 2026 11:55 AM EDT Updated
Tue, Apr 28 2026 2:44 PM EDT
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon on Tuesday
warned that rising government debt levels could trigger a crisis in the bond
market, urging policymakers to act before markets force their hand.
Dimon’s statement was in response to a
question about whether he was worried about rising levels of government debt
“around the world and in your country.”
“The way it’s going now, there will be
some kind of bond crisis, and then we’ll have to deal with it,” Dimon said at
an investment conference held by
Norway’s sovereign wealth fund, the largest in the world.
“I’m not that worried we’ll be able to
deal with it,” Dimon said. “I just think maturity should say you should deal
with it, as opposed to let it happen.”
Dimon, who runs the world’s largest bank
by market cap, said history has shown that today’s growing mix of risks could
combine in unpredictable ways. While the timing is uncertain, failing to
address those pressures increases the odds that adjustment comes after upheaval
rather than deliberate policy moves.
“The level of things that are adding to
the risk column are high, like geopolitics, oil, government deficits,” Dimon
said. “They may go away, but they may not, and we don’t know what confluence of
events causes the problem.”
A bond crisis would likely mean a sudden
jump in yields and a breakdown in market liquidity, where investors rush to
sell and buyers recede, typically forcing central banks to step in as buyers of
last resort.
A recent example is the 2022 U.K. gilt crisis, when yields on
the U.K. government bonds surged and the Bank of England had to step in to
stabilize the market.
In the wide-ranging interview, Dimon
addressed risks he saw in the credit cycle and the pace of artificial
intelligence adoption and his insights into setting corporate culture.
While he didn’t think that private credit,
at about $1.7 trillion, was large enough to be a systemic risk to the U.S.
economy, he did say that the larger risk was that a downturn across all lending
categories would be harsher than expected.
“We haven’t had a credit recession in so
long, so when we have one, it would be worse than people think,” Dimon said.
“It might be terrible.”
Jamie Dimon warns
of 'bond crisis' ahead as global debt risks build
Panic in India as entire airline industry 'on
brink of collapse'
28 April 2026
The Federation of Indian Airlines
(FIA) has pleaded for urgent assistance from the Ministry of Civil Aviation,
stating that current jet
fuel pricing is
causing extreme stress on the industry. In a letter to
the Centre, the FIA, a premier industry body which represents major domestic
airlines including IndiGo, SpiceJet and Air
India, said this stress has brought the airline industry to the brink of
collapse.
"The airline Industry in India is
under extreme stress and is on the verge of closing down or of stopping
its operations.
The dire condition of the Aviation Sector has been exacerbated by the West Asia
War and the exorbitant increase in the price of ATF [Aviation Turbine
Fuel]," the letter reads.
The federation added that due to the
increase in the price of ATF by Rs.73 (£0.60) per litre for both international
and domestic flights, operations have
become "completely unviable".
This price increase has resulted in
"significant losses for the aviation sector in April 2026," the FIA
said, according to the Hindustan
Times.
The April 2026 pricing outcomes "do
not ensure parity between domestic and international
operations,"
the airline body added.
The revised prices for aviation turbine
fuel come amid the oil and gas supply crisis brought on by the US and Israel's
war on Iran. The ongoing conflict has led to a blockade of the Strait of
Hormuz, a vital passage for around 20% of the world's energy supply.
The war has driven the price of Brent
Crude up
from $72 per barrel (£58) to $118 per barrel (£96). Consequently, the ATF price
(MOPAG and Premium) has surged from $87.24 (£70) to a high of $260.24 (£211)
per barrel - a 295% increase - and is currently trading at $235.63 (£190) per
barrel. This marks a significant rise compared to the pricing in March 2025,
the FIA added.
The airline body said ATF pricing is
usually around 30-40% of the airline's cost. However, with pricing rising due
to the US-Iran war, the increase in ATF costs has now pushed airline operating
costs to 55-60%.
"Add to this, the Rupee has also
depreciated further to its lowest level, adding additional burden on Airlines
in terms of ATF Pricing," the body noted.
In response to the ongoing crisis, the
airline body has presented three key recommendations to the government. These
include the reinstatement of the crack band in line with a pre-agreed formula,
which refers to the margins refineries make when converting crude oil into final
products. They have also called for a temporary deferment of the excise duty on
ATF, which is currently set at 11% for domestic operations.
Finally, the airline body is requesting a
reduction in VAT for key states like Delhi and Tamil Nadu, pointing out that
cities such as Mumbai, Bangalore,
Hyderabad, and Kolkata-covering over 50% of airline operations in India-
currently face VAT rates ranging from 16% to 20%.
"Applying the same framework
consistently will ensure parity, reduce the financial burden and enable Indian
airlines to compete more effectively with global counterparts," it said.
Panic in India as
entire airline industry 'on brink of collapse'
UK cake factory shuts down after 400 years as
'cost of living crisis accelerates closures'
29 April 2026
A UK cake company has shut down after 400
years of business in yet another blow to Britain's economy.
Oxfordshire-based Brown's Original Banbury
Cakes Limited has been managed over the last three decades by family owner
Phillip Brown.
The family firm has been making its iconic
Banbury cakes for close to four centuries, being based at a site in Parsons
Street, Banbury, since the 1600s.
During the 1960s, the family's once-famous
shop was closed down and replaced with a Japanese restaurant, but it has
continued to trade since then.
A local specialty, Banbury cakes are
spicy, currant pastries that are commonly made with mixed peel, brown sugar,
rum, and nutmeg.
For centuries, Brown's Original Banbury
Cakes Limited has kept its own family recipe for the cakes a secret.
According to documents found on the
Companies House website, the company was dissolved on April 7, 2026.
Store and business closures have ramped up
in recent years following the Covid-19 pandemic and recent geopolitical shocks.
Recent data suggests that more than 3,000
retail stores shut down for good in 2025, as 54 high street retailers ceased
operations.
Critics have placed partial blame on
Chancellor Rachel Reeves for this phenomenon due to her changes to the tax
regime.
Over two Budgets, the Chancellor has
scrapped business relief, raised National Insurance for employers, and hikes
the National Living Wage.
Molly Monks F.I.P.A., insolvency
specialist at Parker Walsh, said: "The transformation of retail was
already underway, but the cost of living crisis has dramatically accelerated
the closure of stores that might otherwise have survived another few years.
"Discretionary spending has collapsed
in many categories and footfall on high streets outside major city centres
remains stubbornly below pre-pandemic levels.
"Meanwhile, business rates continue
to penalise physical retail in a way that online competitors simply do not
face, an imbalance that the government has failed to correct.
"Wage bill increases flowing from the
new National Living Rate and higher employer National Insurance have been the
final blow for many. The sad reality is this pipeline of closures is far from
over."
UK cake factory
shuts down after 400 years as 'cost of living crisis accelerates closures'
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians.
UK
economy set for £35bn hit from Middle East energy crisis, think tank says
Henry
Saker-Clark, Press Association Deputy Business Editor
Wed,
29 April 2026 at 10:40 am BST
The
Middle East energy shock could wipe around £35 billion from the UK economy over
the next two years in a “best-case” scenario, an economic think tank has
warned.
The
National Institute of Economic and Social Research (Niesr) said that a more
protracted crisis in the Middle East could see the UK enter a recession in the
second half this year.
The
group’s latest quarterly economic projections pointed to an increasingly gloomy
outlook as the war between US-Israeli and Iranian forces weighs on economies
globally, with the UK set for slower growth and rising inflation.
It
indicated that the Bank of England’s committee rate-setters are likely to
increase interest rates this summer as a result, with the potential for up to
six more hikes in a more severe scenario.
On
Thursday, the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee will vote on whether to keep
interest rates at their current level of 3.75%.
Niesr
said it expects interest rates to be held at this meeting, but predicted they
will be increased to 4% in July – staying at this level through the rest of the
year.
However,
it said a severe scenario, which would see further inflationary pressure from a
continuing conflict, could result in rates rising as high as 5.25%.
In
its best-case scenario which would include a resolution in the Middle East this
year, the organisation still pointed towards a slowdown in economic growth to
0.9% for 2026, compared with 1.4% growth in 2025.
The
group said growth is likely to improve marginally to 1% in 2027.
In
its previous outlook, Niesr had predicted 1.4% growth this year and 1.3% growth
in 2027.
Even
with a swift resolution to the conflict, Niesr said the UK economy will be
around £35 billion smaller in 2026 and 2027, casting uncertainty over the
Chancellor’s ambitions to grow the UK economy.
However,
Niesr’s deputy director for macroeconomics Stephen Millard said an adverse
situation is likely to knock around 0.4 percentage points off growth over the
next two years.
The
forecasts also indicated that inflation, which lifted to 3.3% last month, will
slow to 2.5%.
But
it is then expected to shoot higher as higher energy prices drive further
inflation, with it expected to peak at 4.1% in January next year.
Niesr
said it expects inflation will not drop back to the Bank of England’s 2% target
rate until 2028 as a result.
Inflation
is set to surpass wage growth, which is predicted to slow to 3.3% next year,
putting pressure of household finances.
More
UK economy set for
£35bn hit from Middle East energy crisis, think tank says - Yahoo News UK
'Gold
is money': Billionaire Ray Dalio urges investors to put 5–15% into gold as Iran
war threatens 20% of global oil supply
April
28, 2026
As
the conflict involving Iran enters its ninth week, billionaire investor Ray
Dalio has issued a clear message to global investors. In times of
uncertainty, he says, gold remains one of the most reliable stores of value.
Speaking
in a recent interview, Dalio warned that the ongoing war is reshaping financial
and geopolitical stability. He advised that investors should consider
allocating between 5 and 15 per cent of their portfolios to gold.
A
War With Global Consequences
The
conflict has already begun to disrupt key global supply chains. At the centre
of concern lies the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most critical oil
transit routes.
Before
the war, the narrow passage handled roughly 20 per cent of global seaborne oil.
Since hostilities escalated, access has been severely restricted. This has
raised fears of prolonged supply disruptions and sustained pressure on energy
prices. Oil markets have reacted sharply. Prices have surged this year,
reflecting both reduced supply and growing uncertainty over how long the
disruption may last.
Dalio
noted that control over the strait will be a decisive factor in how the
conflict unfolds. He also pointed to broader concerns within the US, including
rising fuel costs and political pressures linked to domestic elections.
Gold
as a Form of Money
Dalio's
argument rests on a simple premise. Gold is not just a commodity. It is, in his
words, a form of money. He described gold as one of the oldest and most trusted
stores of value. Central banks continue to hold it as a key reserve asset,
second only to the US dollar. In periods of instability, investors often turn
to gold as a hedge against volatility.
He
also stressed its role as a diversifier. In uncertain markets, assets that move
independently of stocks and currencies can help reduce overall risk. Gold
prices have shown mixed movement during the conflict. While the metal
has lost ground at certain points, it remains higher for the year overall. This
reflects a balance between short-term market shifts and long-term demand for
safe assets.
A
Changing Financial Order
Beyond
the immediate impact of the war, Dalio pointed to deeper structural changes in
the global economy. He said the world is moving towards a more multipolar
system. This includes a growing role for currencies such as China's renminbi in
international trade. It also reflects the increasing use of sanctions, which
has altered how countries manage reserves and conduct transactions.
These
shifts, he argued, are changing the nature of money itself. In such an
environment, traditional stores of value such as gold may regain prominence.
Dalio also warned that the US could face a period of stagflation. This is
marked by rising inflation alongside slower economic growth and weaker
employment conditions.
More
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section Updates as they get reported.
Want to know how to kill the world?
Just ask AI.
A.I.
Bots Told Scientists How to Make Biological Weapons
Scientists shared transcripts with
The Times in which chatbots described how to assemble deadly pathogens and
unleash them in public spaces.
April 29, 2026
One evening last summer, Dr.
David Relman went cold at his laptop as an A.I. chatbot told him how to plan a
massacre.
A microbiologist and
biosecurity expert at Stanford University, Dr. Relman had been hired by an
artificial intelligence company to pressure-test its product before it was
released to the public. That night in the scientist's home office, the chatbot
explained how to modify an infamous pathogen in a lab so that it would resist
known treatments.
Worse, the bot described in
vivid detail how to release the superbug, identifying a security lapse in a
large public transit system, Dr. Relman said, asking The New York Times to
withhold the name of the pathogen and other specifics for fear of inspiring an
attack. The bot outlined a plan to maximize casualties and minimize the chances
of being caught.
Dr. Relman was so shaken he
took a walk to clear his head.
“It was answering questions
that I hadn’t thought to ask it, with this level of deviousness and cunning
that I just found chilling,” said Dr. Relman, who has also advised the federal
government on biological threats. He declined to disclose which chatbot
produced the plot, citing a confidentiality agreement with its maker. The
company added some safety guardrails to the product after his testing, he said,
though he felt they were insufficient.
Dr. Relman is part of a small
group of experts enlisted by A.I. companies to vet their products for
catastrophic risks. In recent months, some have shared with The Times more than
a dozen chatbot conversations revealing that even publicly available models can
do more than disseminate dangerous information. The virtual assistants have
described in lucid, bullet-pointed detail how to buy raw genetic material, turn
it into deadly weapons and deploy them in public spaces, the transcripts show.
Some have even brainstormed ways to evade detection.
More
A.I. Bots Told Scientists How to Make Biological
Weapons - The New York Times
Longi sets
world records for silicon solar cell and module efficiency
By Zheng Xin | chinadaily.com.cn |
Updated: 2026-04-28 13:40
Solar giant Longi Green Energy
Technology Co announced two major technological breakthroughs, setting new
world records for the conversion efficiency of both its crystalline silicon
solar cells and modules.
The company's self-developed Hybrid
Interdigitated-Back-Contact (HIBC) solar cell achieved a photoelectric
conversion efficiency of 28.13 percent, according to an authoritative
certification by the Institute for Solar Energy Research Hamelin (ISFH) in Germany.
The milestone marks another significant
stride toward the theoretical efficiency limit of crystalline silicon solar
cells, surpassing the company's previous record of 28.04 percent set in January
2026.
Longi also announced that its solar
module — based on HIBC cell technology — reached an efficiency of 26.4 percent.
Certified by the United States-based National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NLR,
formerly NREL), the achievement breaks the company's prior module efficiency
ceiling of 26 percent, it said.
Technological advancements by Chinese PV
firms like Longi are crucial for driving down the levelized cost of electricity
derived from solar power, making it an even more competitive and attractive
energy source globally.
The company remains committed to
developing groundbreaking technology and relentlessly driving improvements in
converting solar energy to electricity in order to produce green, renewable,
and cost-effective photovoltaic energy, it said.
Longi sets world records for silicon solar cell and module efficiency -
Chinadaily.com.cn
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt Clocks
(usdebtclock.org)
The key insight of Adam Smith's Wealth of Nations is
misleadingly simple: if an exchange between two parties is voluntary, it will
not take place unless both believe they will benefit from it. Most economic
fallacies derive from the neglect of this simple insight, from the tendency to
assume that there is a fixed pie, that one party can gain only at the expense
of another.
Milton Friedman
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