London Irvine Report: Special Update 18/04/2026 Trump/Iran Say Hormuz Open. Updated

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11:00 Update.

The Latest: Iran says it has closed Hormuz again over US blockade

Updated Sat, April 18, 2026 at 5:56 AM GMT+1

Iran has rowed back on its decision to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, warning that it would continue to block transit through the hugely important waterway as long as the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports remained in effect.

The announcement Saturday came after U.S. President Donald Trump said the blockade “will remain in full force” until Tehran reaches a deal with the U.S., including on its nuclear program. Tehran had reopened the strait Friday to commercial vessels.

Roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil passes through the strait and further limits would squeeze already constrained supply, driving prices higher once again. Iran’s Friday announcement about the opening of the crucial body of water, through which 20% of the world’s oil is shipped, came as a 10-day truce between Israel and the Iranian-backed Hezbollah militant group in Lebanon appeared to hold.

Despite the escalation, Pakistani officials say the United States and Iran are still moving closer to a deal ahead of the April 22 ceasefire deadline.

The fighting has killed at least 3,000 people in Iran, nearly 2,300 in Lebanon, 23 in Israel and more than a dozen in Gulf Arab states. Thirteen U.S. service members have also been killed.

The Latest: Iran says it has closed Hormuz again over US blockade

For 1917, when British diplomacy went wrong, scroll down to the last YouTube item.

Is the Trump War over? Did Trump win “biggly” yet again? The US stock casinos prodded by the US Treasury, central bank and stock promoting media think so. Buy the rumour, sell the fact?

A Cuba invasion next, then China? Russia might be easier, but it’s land mass is bigger.

Stock Market on April 17: Dow rallies more than 850 points, S&P 500 tops 7,100 for first time to book fresh record high as investors cheer reopening of Strait of Hormuz; stocks post big weekly gains

The U.S. stock market rallied sharply Friday, after President Trump thanked Iran for opening the Strait of Hormuz. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at fresh record highs.

17 April 2026 at 4:34 pm New York Time

Stock Market on April 17: Dow rallies more than 850 points, S&P 500 tops 7,100 for first time to book fresh record high as investors cheer reopening of Strait of Hormuz; stocks post big weekly gains - MarketWatch

Oil falls by 13% after Iran declares Strait of Hormuz open

Updated: April 17, 2026 at 11:28AM EDT Published: April 17, 2026 at 9:37AM EDT

HOUSTON -- Oil prices plunged by about 13 per cent on Friday after Iran’s foreign minister said passage for all commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz was open for the remaining ceasefire period and U.S. President Donald Trump said Iran has agreed to never close the strait again.

Brent crude futures fell US$12.87, or 12.95 per cent, to $86.52 a barrel by 10:50 a.m. EDT, after falling to a session low of $86.09. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down $13.50, or 14.26 per cent, at $81.19 a barrel, after touching $80.56.

Both contracts were trading at their lowest since March 10, and set for their largest daily declines since April 8.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said the Strait of Hormuz was open following the agreement of a ceasefire in Lebanon.

“Comments from Iran’s foreign minister indicate a de-escalation as long as the ceasefire is in place, now we need to see if the number of tankers crossing the Strait increases substantially,” UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said.

Progress in negotiations

The U.S. and Iran have made progress in the negotiations over a three-page memorandum of understanding to end the war, according to an Axios reporter on X.

Prices had already fallen earlier in the session as possible further talks between the United States and Iran over the weekend and a 10-day ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel raised investors’ hopes the war in the Middle East could be nearing an end.

Addressing a sticking point in talks, Trump said Tehran had offered to not possess nuclear weapons for more than 20 years.

“We’re going to see what happens. But I think we’re very close to making a deal with Iran,” Trump told reporters outside the White House on Thursday.

Trump also said on Friday that the United States has banned Israel from further bombing in Lebanon, using an a harsher tone than usual with the longtime U.S. ally.

Shortly after the announcement that the strait was open, a U.S. official told Reuters that a military blockade of Iran involving more than 10,000 personnel remains in effect.

Oil price tumbles after Iran declares Strait of Hormuz open

Video shows ships turning away from the Strait of Hormuz as confusion persists over whether sea lane is really open

Published Fri, Apr 17 2026 6:26 PM EDT Updated Fri, Apr 17 2026 7:33 PM EDT

Oil tankers are remaining cautious about sailing through the Strait of Hormuz after Iran declared Friday that the sea lane is open to commercial ships, video footage shows.

Oil futures contracts tumbled Friday as the market interpreted the announcement from Tehran as a major breakthrough that will ease the massive disruption to global energy supplies. The U.S. benchmark, West Texas Intermediate crude settled down 12% Friday at $83.85 per barrel, while Brent crude futures finished the day down 9%.

But statements from Iranian officials and President Donald Trump have caused confusion about whether the strait is really open or not.

Iran’s Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi initially said the strait was “completely open” for the remainder of the ceasefire with the U.S. and Israel. But Iranian media aligned with the Revolutionary Guard issued conditions for safe passage that resemble the rules which Tehran has imposed for weeks now.

‘A false dawn’

A number of tankers and cargo ships did try to exit the strait Friday via the route designated by Iran around Larak Island but they suddenly turned back, said Matt Smith, director of commodity research at Kpler.

“They’ve clearly not been given approval to pass through,” Smith said.

Commercial ships must follow a route designated by Tehran and coordinate with its military, a source close to Iran’s Supreme National Security Council told Tasnim News. Ships are not allowed to pass if they or their cargoes are linked to hostile nations, according to the Tasnim report.

It is “unclear whether there’s a dramatic change here,” said Tomer Raanan, a maritime risk analyst at Lloyd’s List Intelligence. “Iran still wants ships to transit through its territorial waters.”

Trump, meanwhile, said the U.S. naval blockade of Iran remains in place. Tehran threatened to close the strait if the blockade is not lifted.

This all means that the strait remains functionally closed, said Matthew Wright, senior freight analyst at Kpler. “It is a false dawn,” Wright said.

Video shows ships turning away from the Strait of Hormuz despite Iran declaring it open

Strait of Hormuz Questions Linger Amid News Flurry

A series of statements from Tehran and Washington has some companies playing it safe.

April 17, 2026 at 11:00 PM GMT+1

Despite a flurry of news from Tehran and Washington Friday indicating movement toward a resolution of the war, the day ended with lingering questions about a path to peace.

An initial announcement by Iran that the Strait of Hormuz was fully open, coming a day after Israel agreed to stop bombing Lebanon, was subsequently qualified to exclude ships and cargoes linked to “hostile” countries. Iran state media also reported the government would fully close the strait again if the US didn’t end its blockade of Iranian shipping. In Washington, President Donald Trump said the blockade would continue. Later, he revealed plans for new peace talks and Iran’s nuclear program, albeit without confirmation from Iran.

Despite the confusion, oil and European natural gas prices tumbled. Brent futures retreated 9.1% to settle near $90 a barrel while West Texas Intermediate fell to roughly $84. European benchmark gas prices fell as much as 10% to end the day near €39 ($46) a megawatt-hour.

But for companies with ships idling in the Persian Gulf, the maelstrom of messaging left little to go on. Bloomberg spoke to over a dozen ship owners, agents, brokers and traders, most of whom indicated they intended to take a wait-and-see approach for now. The world’s largest international shipping association said it believes shipping companies should consider avoiding the area.

By late Friday at least eight tankers inside the Gulf appeared to be heading towards the strait, but for most the watchword appears to be caution. Some shipowners said privately that they wouldn’t want to be the first to find out whether the route really is safe and fully open. “Would you be the first penguin off the ice floe to test the water?” one asked. —David E. Rovella

Persian Gulf Shipping Sticks With Caution: Evening Briefing Americas - Bloomberg

CNN’s Richard Quest Reports Ships Aren’t Actually Sailing Through the Strait of Hormuz Despite Trump’s Assurances

Alex Griffing Apr 17th, 2026, 3:42 pm

CNN’s Richard Quest reported on Friday that ships are still not sailing through the Strait of Hormuz despite President Donald Trump’s assurance that the strait is open, which has led to dropping oil prices and soaring markets.

“We lead this hour with breaking news. President Trump telling Axios that negotiators for the U.S. and Iran will likely meet again this weekend, and that he expects a deal to end the war in a day or two. This is happening as Iran has announced that the Strait of Hormuz is now completely open for commercial shipping, though its Revolutionary Guard is now laying out conditions for actually getting through,” began anchor Boris Sanchez, adding:

President Trump quickly touted the announcement of the strait’s reopening, adding that Iran also committed to never again closing the vital waterway. The president also said that the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports will remain in place until a deal to end the war is complete.

Iranian state media swiftly responded to that, warning that the strait will close again if the blockade continues. Today, investors are cheering the news that this critical passageway for 20 percent of the world’s oil is reopening. You see stocks have jumped, oil prices have tumbled. CNN business editor-at-large Richard Quest joins us now. So, Richard, when will shipping firms — I should say — feel confident enough to send their vessels through the strait again?

“I think they will only do that when they’ve received guarantees, however they’d be given, from the Iranians that their ships are not at risk. We’ve heard from Maersk, we’ve heard from Hapag-Lloyd, and their CEOs have all told us: yes, we’re ready to sail, but only once it’s safe. And that is certainly not the case at the moment,” Quest replied, adding:

Boris, if you just look at the introduction that you’ve just given — the number of “this has happened but dependent upon that,” “over there’s going to do this but only if this happens,” “perhaps over that” — there are so many ifs, conditions, and preconditions that nobody can say with any certainty that this deal, this opening of the Hormuz Strait, will continue for any length of time.

We haven’t actually seen the ships, by the way, going through. And so yes, the market has given an extremely positive reaction because this is what they want — this is exactly what they want — but whether these gains hold in the short to medium term relies on actual evidence of it taking place.

Reuters’s Chief National Security Reporter Phil Stewart added on Friday afternoon, “Significant differences between Iran and the United States remain to reach a deal aimed at ending the war, a senior Iranian official told Reuters on Friday, adding that keeping the Strait of Hormuz open is ‘conditional on U.S. adherence to the terms of ceasefire.’”

Ships Not Transiting Strait of Hormuz Yet: CNN's Quest

A US Navy Aircraft Carrier Is Circling Africa To Reach The Middle East

Apr 14, 2026, 09:21am EDT

The United States Navy’s 10th and final Nimitz-class nuclear-powered supercarrier, the USS George H.W. Bush (CVN-77), was spotted off the coast of Namibia on Monday. The warship will sail around the southern tip of the African continent, where she will cross from the Atlantic into the Indian Ocean at the Cape of Good Hope.

The aircraft carrier is believed to be en route to the Middle East, where she will join the USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72), which has been operating in the region since February. The Pentagon didn’t announce why CVN-77, which departed Naval Station Norfolk in late March, is taking what is, in essence, the long way. The normal transit for the U.S. Navy’s East Coast carriers heading to the Middle East is to pass through the Strait of Gibraltar into the Mediterranean Sea, then through the Suez Canal into the Red Sea.

The answer in this case may be straightforward enough.

As USNI News reported, “The path around Africa allows the carrier and its escorts to avoid transiting the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb, which were both hubs of activity for the Houthis in their drone and missile attacks on U.S. and commercial shipping in 2024 and 2025.”

The USS George H.W. Bush may not be the only carrier headed to the region.

The USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78), the newest and largest operational supercarrier, departed Split, Croatia, last week and, as of Monday, was operating in the Eastern Mediterranean. The U.S. Navy hasn’t indicated if CVN-78 will transit the Suez Canal into the Red Sea, where she was operating until the middle of last month.

Bab el-Mandeb Is The Other Middle East Chokepoint

Much of the world’s attention has been on the Strait of Hormuz, which connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman, and where the U.S. has imposed a partial blockade. However, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is another significant global chokepoint.

Its name, which means “Gate of Grief/Tears,” may seem especially fitting in the modern era, but it has also been known for eons as a potential navigation hazard due to its shallow waters, reefs, and unpredictable winds that can create high waves capable of swamping small watercraft.

The strait, just 20 miles (32 kilometers) wide at its narrowest point, is a vital waterway, connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. It is divided into two channels, with the Western Dact-el-Mayun being approximately 16 miles wide, and the Eastern Alexander’s Strait or Bab Iskender, which is much shallower and only two miles wide. The former is used for large international shipping vessels and tankers. It is the channel almost always employed by any U.S. Navy warship, with the shallower channel mostly used today for local traffic.

Despite the dangers, more than 20,000 vessels had passed through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait annually, accounting for roughly 12% of global trade. It was also a major conduit for oil and liquefied natural gas from the Gulf region to Europe.

A US Navy Aircraft Carrier Is Circling Africa To Reach The Middle East

Howard Lutnick tells Canada ‘they suck’ and vows to wind back trade deal with US

Fraught talks set to resume to end dispute that is costing America more than $1bn a month

17 April 2026

US commerce secretary Howard Lutnick has slammed Canada in the lead-up to tense trade talks, calling the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement a “bad deal” that needs to be reworked.

Lutnick said US President Donald Trump thought the USMCA “needs to be reconsidered and reimagined correctly” when new negotiations begin in July.

Speaking in Washington at a Semafor media event, Lutnick said reports that Canada is slowing down trade talks with the US “is like the worst strategy I’ve ever heard. They suck.” Trump signed the 2020 trade deal during his first term to replace Nafta.

“[Prime Minister Mark] Carney has a problem with us,” he said.

A commerce department spokesperson said Lutnick had been misquoted.

“Secretary Lutnick, describing our unfair trade imbalance with Canada, explained how Canada sucks off of our $30tn economy,” the spokesperson said.

Relations between Canada and the US have deteriorated since Trump launched a trade war shortly after retaking power in January 2025. The Canadian consumer boycott launched in response is costing the US more than $1bn every month in lost goods trade alone.

Trump has called Canada the “51st state” of the US and imposed punitive tariffs on its closest ally, sparking a quiet revolt that has included “made in Canada” shop signs, “Canada is not for sale” hats and provincial governments cutting contracts with Elon Musk’s Starlink.

As a result, Canadian travel numbers have plummeted by a quarter while American products, in particular alcohol, are no longer sold in most government-run stores.

Kenneth Frankel, president of the Canadian Council for the Americas, said US government officials had expressed concerns over the boycotts but there was little they could do about it.

“Canadian consumers are choosing and feeling empowered by their choices,” he said, adding that “it may irritate the US government, but provincial officials are responding to popular sentiment”. Carney has led the charge with a series of “Buy Canada” procurement policies aimed at reducing the country’s reliance on US suppliers, in particular in defence.

US goods exports to Canada totalled $336.5bn in 2025, down 3.8 per cent or $13.4bn, from 2024, the US Trade Representative reported at the end of March.

Canada is the top source of international visitors to the US, with 20.4mn visits in 2024, generating $20.5bn in spending, according to the US travel association. But those numbers have been declining since Trump came to power.

The Royal Bank of Canada reported this month that Canadians returning from the US shrank 25 per cent year over year in 2025, with increased travel within Canada as well as to non-US destinations.

Howard Lutnick tells Canada ‘they suck’ and vows to wind back trade deal with US

In other news.

Why the Cease-Fire With Iran Will Hold

The De-Escalatory Logic That Will Shape Negotiations

Gideon Rose April 11, 2026

In the wake of agreeing to a two-week cease-fire on April 7, both the United States and Iran are claiming victory in their war. Each says the same thing: We held out and the other guy blinked first. In fact, both decided to call it a draw. And some sort of outcome like this was always likely, because the structure of the game constrained the decision-making of the players—even players as idiosyncratic as U.S. President Donald Trump and the leaders of the Islamic Republic.

Wars have three phases: an opening, a middle game, and an endgame. As in chess, the opening involves deploying forces and engaging the enemy. If that doesn’t produce a quick victory, the contest moves into a middle game in which the two sides fight it out and try to get one another to surrender. As the trends in battle become clear, eventually the rough shape of a logical outcome emerges and the war enters its endgame, during which the details of the final settlement are hammered out.

In Iran, the endgame began with Trump’s threat of massive destruction if Iran did not open the Strait of Hormuz, and it will continue until the belligerents come to a stable agreement ending hostilities. The cease-fire is likely to hold for the same reason it was agreed to in the first place: both sides were hurting and would hurt even more if the war escalated instead of ending.

The Trump administration launched the war confident that the conflict would be relatively quick and cheap and that Iran wouldn’t be able or willing to hit back. Neither assumption proved true, and as the fighting continued, the war started looking not like chess but a deadly game called “the dollar auction,” which traps the players in unprofitable escalation.

The concept is straightforward: Two players bid for a prize of one dollar, with both agreeing to pay their last bid whatever happens. At first, the players bid eagerly in hopes of making a profit. As the price rises, the trap springs shut. The first player to bid $1 would come away even. But the other player would be out almost a dollar (his last bid) and so has an incentive to bet a little more—say, $1.05—in hopes of at least losing less (only five cents). Unfortunately, the same logic applies to the first player, who now has an incentive to raise as well. From here on in, the game has no internal stopping point; seemingly fruitless costs pile up as the players bet more and more until they walk away or bleed out.

Wars often become dollar auctions because the costs mount inexorably for both sides alike as the fighting continues. The belligerents pay incrementally along the way, often far more in total than what they initially thought the objective was worth. By late March, when it was clear neither side would give in easily, the Iran war reached the inflection point and slipped into the red for everybody.

Why the Cease-Fire With Iran Will Hold | Foreign Affairs

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Commodities exports through Strait of Hormuz collapse, except for Iran

16 April 2026

Iran was the top exporter of commodities through the Strait of Hormuz in March, as shipments from other countries fell off a cliff with Tehran's blockade of the vital waterway, data by analytics firm Kpler showed.

Iran is usually the fifth largest exporter of commodities -- goods such as crude oil and other petroleum products, liquified natural gas (LNG), and dry bulk including fertilisers -- through the strait.

But shipments by Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Iraq and Qatar dropped by at least 96 percent each in March compared to the previous 12 months' average, according to Kpler.

Iran's shipments did also fall -- but by only 26 percent, the data showed.

Tehran's forces choked off the strait after Iran was attacked by the United States and Israel on February 28. Since then it has allowed only a trickle of ships to pass through.

Around a fifth of the world's crude oil and LNG normally passes through the strait, and Tehran's paralysing of it ignited fears of a global energy crisis, with Asian countries in particular impacted in recent weeks.

A US blockade of Iranian ports has appeared to further curb traffic of the trade route already paralysed by Iranian forces in recent days.

Bahrain and Kuwait did not ship any commodities through the strait in March.

Qatar, normally a major LNG supplier, exported just 45,000 tonnes of butane and propane through the strait in March, and no LNG.

Crude oil made up 81 percent of Iran’s exports through the Strait of Hormuz last month, up from 62 percent on average from March 2025 to February 2026.

Commodities exports through Strait of Hormuz collapse, except for Iran

VIDEO: World on brink of global recession if oil price shock continues: IMF

World on brink of global recession if oil price shock continues: IMF - ABC News

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.

But what about the fire risk?

Designs for world-first battery powered cruise ship revealed

16 April 2026

The technology and designs are available to build the world’s first 100 per cent battery-powered cruise ship by 2031, and it could mean more space on the sun deck for passengers.

Speaking at the Seatrade Cruise Global industry trade show, Meyer Werft – the German shipyard behind ships such as Anthem of the Seas and Disney Destiny – presented concept designs for a fully battery-powered cruise ship known as “Project Vision”.

The proposed ship is 275 metres long, accommodates 1,856 passengers and has a size of around 82,000 gross tonnes.

The battery system is supplied by Corvus Energy from Norway and can reduce greenhouse gas emissions from a vessel by up to 95 per cent.

Project Vision includes new ship designs that do not have the traditional vertical shaft running through the ship for exhaust treatment, or the funnel.

This could create an entirely new sun deck design with unobstructed views for passengers.

Thomas Weigend, chief sales officer at Meyer Werft, said: “If ordered this year, the shipyard could already deliver the first fully battery powered vessel in 2031.”

Newer cruise ships are taking steps to be more sustainable. Vessels such as P&O Cruises Arvia, MSC World Europa and Star Princess use liquefied natural gas (LNG).

VIking Libra, which is launching in November 2026, can operate on hydrogen power for part of a voyage.

Cruise lines that focus on the Norwegian coast, such as Hurtigruten and Havila Voyages, are moving towards hydrogen power and have also completed voyages on biofuels.

Havila Voyages’ ships can operate on battery power for up to four hours.

Some cruise ports offer onshore power for ships when docked so they can turn off their diesel engines.

Dover was named the UK’s first net-zero port this week, which was attributed to initiatives such as using onsite solar power and purchasing sustainably sourced hydrotreated vegetable oil to operate machinery.

Designs for world-first battery powered cruise ship revealed

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World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

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This weekend’ s music diversion. A 1907 March. Approx. 5 minutes.

Florentiner Marsch

Florentiner Marsch

Next, fun with maps. Who really discovered Australia and when? Approx. 10 minutes.

The Map Given to a King in 1542 That Shows a Continent Discovered in 1770

The Map Given to a King in 1542 That Shows a Continent Discovered in 1770