Baltic
Dry Index. 2201 +40 Brent Crude 102.16
Spot Gold 4734 Spot Silver 74.36
US 2 Year Yield 3.81 +0.03
US Federal Debt. 39.111 trillion
US GDP 31.322 trillion.
The first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; the second is war. Both bring a temporary prosperity; both bring a permanent ruin. But both are the refuge of political and economic opportunists.
Ernest Hemingway
7:30 AM Update.
Hmm. Now Iran and the US Navy blockade the Strait of Hormuz to open it???
Oil tankers steer
clear of Hormuz ahead of US blockade
By Florence Tan April 13, 20262:07 AM GMT+1
SINGAPORE,
April 13 (Reuters) - Oil tankers are steering clear of the Strait of Hormuz
ahead of a U.S. blockade later on Monday following failed peace talks between
the U.S. and Iran over the weekend, shipping data showed.
President Donald Trump said on Sunday the U.S. Navy
would start blockading the
Strait of Hormuz, raising the stakes after marathon talks with Iran failed to
reach a deal to end the war, jeopardising a fragile two-week ceasefire.
U.S.
Central Command said U.S. forces would begin implementing the blockade of all
maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports at 10 a.m. ET (1400 GMT) on
Monday.
It would
be "enforced impartially against vessels of all nations entering or
departing Iranian ports and coastal areas, including all Iranian ports on the
Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman," it said in a statement on X.
U.S.
forces would not impede freedom of navigation for vessels transiting the
Strait of Hormuz to and from non-Iranian ports, and additional information
would be provided to commercial mariners through a formal notice prior to the
start of the blockade, it said.
Iran's
Revolutionary Guards said on Sunday that any military vessels
attempting to approach the Strait of Hormuz would be considered a violation of
the ceasefire and be dealt with harshly and decisively.
Pakistan-flagged
tankers Shalamar and Khairpur entered the Gulf on Sunday, data from LSEG and
Kpler showed.
The
Aframax tanker Shalamar is heading to the United Arab Emirates on Monday to
load Das crude while the Panamax-sized Khairpur is heading to Kuwait to load
refined products, the data showed.
Pakistan
National Shipping, which manages Shalamar, did not immediately respond to a
request for comment outside of office hours.
Liberia-flagged
very large crude carrier (VLCC) Mombasa B, which also transited the strait
earlier on Sunday, is ballasting in the Gulf, the data showed.
Malta-flagged
VLCC Agios Fanourios I, which tried to pass through the strait on Sunday to
enter the Gulf to load Iraqi Basra crude for Vietnam, has since turned back
and is now anchored near the Gulf of Oman, the data showed. The tanker plans to
head to Iraq.
Eastern
Mediterranean Maritime, which manages the Agios Fanourios I, and CMB.TECH NV,
the manager for the Mombasa B, did not respond to requests for comment
outside office hours.
Despite
the stalemate, three
supertankers fully laden with oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz
on Saturday, shipping data showed. They appeared to be the first vessels to
exit the Gulf since the ceasefire deal was struck last week.
Oil tankers steer clear of Hormuz ahead of US blockade | Reuters
Little need for my two cents today. President Trump seems determined to collapse the global economy and with it the Great Nixonian Error of Fiat Money.
Asia markets trade lower as oil surges after U.S.
moves to blockade Iran ports
Published Sun, Apr 12 2026 7:52 PM EDT
Asia-Pacific markets traded lower Monday,
as investors weigh a U.S. naval blockade on Iran’s ports after talks between
Washington and Tehran failed to produce an agreement to end the conflict in the
Middle East.
The breakdown
of negotiations over the weekend in Islamabad reignited worries that
the U.S.-Iran war will last longer than feared, leading to higher oil prices
that will continue to strain economies worldwide.
Crude oil prices surged
on Sunday after the talks ended without an agreement and the U.S.
moved toward a blockade of Iranian port traffic. The West Texas Intermediate jumped
8.54% to $104.82 per barrel as of 11:45 p.m. ET. Brent crude gained 7.27% to
$102.51 per barrel.
U.S. President Donald Trump has reportedly
weighed resuming airstrikes on Iran, according to the Wall Street Journal. Trump last week agreed to a two-week
ceasefire on Tuesday in exchange for Tehran allowing ships to pass through the
strait. He had previously threatened to bomb every bridge and power plant in
Iran.
India’s Nifty 50 was the worst-performing
major Asian index, declining nearly 2%.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 1.09%, while
the Topix declined 0.67%. South Korea’s Kospi declined 1.26%, while the
small-cap Kosdaq rose 0.26% in choppy trade. In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 was 0.53%
lower.
Mainland China’s CSI300 index inched 0.12%
lower, while Hong Kong’s Hang
Seng index extended early losses and was 1.22% lower.
Overnight on Wall Street, Dow Jones
Industrial Average futures dropped by 517 points, or 1.1%. S&P 500 futures
lost 1.1% and Nasdaq 100 futures shed 1.2%.
Asia-Pacific
markets today Nikkei 225, Kospi, Hang Seng Index
Oil prices surge above $100 as U.S. Navy to
blockade Iran’s ports after peace talks fail
Published Sun, Apr 12 2026 6:04 PM EDT Updated
Sun, Apr 12 2026 6:22 PM EDT
Crude oil prices surged on Sunday, as the
U.S. Navy prepares to impose a blockade on Iran’s ports after peace talks
failed over the weekend.
U.S. crude oil futures for
May delivery jumped nearly 8% to $104.20 per barrel by 6:13 p.m. ET.
International benchmark Brent for
June delivery advanced 7% to $101.86.
U.S. Central Command said Sunday the
military will blockade all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports
on Monday at 10 a.m. ET. It added that the U.S. will not impede vessels
transiting to and from non-Iranian ports.
“The blockade will be enforced impartially
against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal
areas, including all Iranian ports on the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman,”
CENTCOM said in a statement.
President Donald Trump had threatened
earlier Sunday to blockade the Strait of Hormuz after the U.S. and Iran failed
to reach an agreement to end the war during negotiations
in Pakistan.
“Effective immediately, the United States
Navy, the Finest in the World, will begin the process of BLOCKADING any and all
Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz,” Trump said in a social media post.
Trump is considering limited strikes on
Iran to break the stalemate in peace talks, officials and people familiar with
the matter told The Wall Street Journal.
The president said Sunday he ordered the
Navy to find and interdict any ship in international waters that has paid Iran
a toll to transit the strait. The narrow sea route is a vital artery that
connects Middle East oil producers to global energy markets.
Tanker traffic through the strait has
plunged due to the threat of Iranian attacks, triggering the largest
oil supply disruption in history. About 20% of global oil supplies
passed through the waterway before the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on Feb.
28.
It is unclear whether Trump will now
resume airstrikes on Iran. The president agreed to a two-week ceasefire on
Tuesday in exchange for Tehran allowing ships to pass through the strait. He
had previously threatened to bomb every bridge and power plant in Iran.
Tehran has made safe passage during the
ceasefire contingent on its approval. Ali Akbar Velayati, a senior advisor to
Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, said Sunday that the “key to the Strait
of Hormuz” remains in the Islamic Republic’s hands, according state news
agency Press TV.
Three supertankers made the journey on
Saturday, according to data from LSEG. Each vessel can carry up two million
barrels of oil. But traffic is well below pre-war levels when more than 100
vessels made the trip daily.
More
Oil
surges above $100 as U.S. to blockade Iran ports after talks fail
CNBC Daily Open: Trump goes from opening the
Strait of Hormuz to blockading it
Published Sun, Apr 12 2026 9:31 PM EDT
Hello, this is Anniek Bao writing to you
from Singapore. Welcome to another edition of CNBC’s Daily Open.
President Donald Trump has ordered the
U.S. Navy to blockade all vessels heading in and out of the Strait of Hormuz,
in a counterintuitive move that followed another round of talks aimed at, among
other things, the reopening of the waterway critical for energy supplies.
As the clock ticks down to the deadline
for the blockade to kick off, investors are on tenterhooks with little
visibility on how it will be implemented, and how long and deep an oil shock
needs to be priced in.
What you need to know today
A round of 21-hour marathon U.S.-Iran
peace talks hosted by Pakistan over the weekend ended
in a stalemate, with U.S. President JD Vance flying home without a deal.
The U.S. and Iran failed to reach an
agreement on thorny issues, with Vance highlighting that Iran’s unwillingness
to drop its pursuit of nuclear weapons was the key issue that stalled the
talks.
Following the collapse of negotiations,
President Donald Trump on
Sunday said the U.S. will
launch a naval blockade of the Strait
of Hormuz. In an interview with Fox News, Trump said the effort will be a
“complete blockade” and “all or none,” meaning no ship will be allowed to pass
until Iran relents.
Trump’s announcement sent oil
prices surging more than 8%. Asian
markets fell in early Monday trade. Meanwhile, U.S.
futures tumbled overnight, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average
futures losing 517 points, or 1.1%. S&P 500 futures dropped 1% and Nasdaq
100 futures declined 1.2%.
In a sign that the economic fallout from
the war has been felt at home, American consumer confidence in
April plunged to a record low, according to a University of Michigan
survey.
Over in Europe, Hungary’s veteran
nationalist leader Viktor Orban conceded
defeat after a landslide election victory by the upstart opposition
Tisza party, in a major setback for his allies in Russia and Washington.
CNBC
Daily Open: Trump goes from opening the Strait of Hormuz to blockading it
Trump's naval blockade of Strait of Hormuz - what
it means for the world
12 April 2026
Donald
Trump warned that the US Navy would start a blockade of the
all-important Strait of Hormuz after peace talks with Iran fell
apart, marking a new low in the Middle East war.
The US President in a fiery message online
said the Navy would stop any vessel that has paid Iran a huge toll to leave or entre the waterway. This comes after
Tehran effectively closed off the Strait of Hormuz, which sees one fifth of the
world's oil supply pass through it on a regular day, after the US and Israel started
bombing Iran on
February 28.
Washington and Tehran agreed on a fragile
two-week ceasefire earlier this week but the pause in fighting broke down as
Israel continued to attack Iran-aligned Hezbollah, in Lebanon. The Trump
blockade of the Strait could help plunge to global economy into further chaos.
Vice President JD Vance flew
to Islamabad, Pakistan, for peace talks with Iran but said negotiators from
Iran "have chosen not to accept our terms" and added that he will
"go back to the United States, having not come to an agreement".
Iran hit back and said the US
"ultimately failed to gain the trust of the Iranian delegation"
during peace talks. Trump quickly followed with his raging rant and threat to
vessels attempting to cross the crucial waterway between Iran and Oman.
In a dramatic Truth Social post, the
Commander-in-Chief said the talks fell apart to a disagreement on Iran owning
nuclear weapons and wrote: "I have instructed our navy to seek and
interdict every vessel in international waters that has paid a toll to Iran. No
one who pays and illegal toll will have safe passage on the high seas. We will
also begin destroying mines the Iranians laid in the Straits. Any Iranian who
fires at us, or at peaceful vessels, will be BLOWN TO HELL!"
The global economy has already been rocked
by the chaos in the Strait of Hormuz, with oil prices soaring from around $70 a barrel before the
conflict started to shooting up to around $120 at its worst during the
conflict.
The ceasefire announcement and hope
shipping could start to continue normally saw the price of a barrel fall to $92
after the fragile deal was announced. The previous rising price of oil
indirectly led to a hike in prices at the pumps. The RAC revealed that a tank
of petrol is now £13.86 more expensive than it was at the beginning of the
Middle East conflict at £86.92.
Mohamed El-Erian, an adviser to insurer
Allianz and an ex-president of Queens’ College, University of Cambridge,
told The Guardian how the uncertainty caused by the
continued war and blockades could hit the UK.
He said: "Absent a swift resumption
of negotiations, the immediate reaction of financial markets when they open for
the trading week will be to push oil prices higher and borrowing costs
higher." El-Erian added: "For the UK, all this translates into
another hit to the cost of living and less flexibility for both fiscal and
monetary policy responses."
More
Trump's
naval blockade of Strait of Hormuz - what it means for the world
A Panicked Race for Barrels Grips the Global Oil
Market
Updated on April 12, 2026 at 8:41 AM
UTC
While investors focused on the fragile
Iranian ceasefire last week, a desperate scramble for cargoes has been playing
out in the oil market, as traders and refiners scour the globe for immediately
available supplies.
In the North Sea, the world’s most
important physical crude market, traders submitted 40 bids for cargoes last
week, only four of which were met by offers. Cargoes for delivery in the coming
weeks changed hands at unprecedented prices above $140 a barrel. Elsewhere,
refiners have been hunting increasingly further afield for supplies, leading to
a series of unusual trades and surging premiums for any oil that’s ready to
ship right now.
Traders said the panicky moves across the
world’s key physical oil markets demonstrated the scale of the shortfall in
crude that’s due to be felt as the loss of supplies from the Middle East leaves
a growing gap.
Skyrocketing prices are signaling that
some European refiners will likely need to follow those in Asia and cut back
production, they said — a move that might help to balance the market for crude
oil but would deepen the shortfalls in vital products like diesel and jet fuel.
“There is simply a shortage of crude,”
said Neil Crosby, head of research at Sparta Commodities AS. “Physical Brent is
a mess and has now risen too far. At this rate even European refiners will have
to lower utilization, perhaps as early as next month.”
The frenzy in the physical oil trade
stands in contrast to the futures market, where oil for delivery in June
dropped 13% last week to close at about $95 a barrel, amid optimism over the
ceasefire.
There were some early signs of increased
activity in the Strait of Hormuz on the weekend, with two Chinese supertankers
and one from Greece moving through the waterway, but traffic still remains well
below prewar levels. It takes weeks for crude from the Gulf to reach refineries
in Asia and Europe.
In addition, peace talks between the US
and Iran this weekend failed to reach an agreement, raising doubts over efforts
to end the war and resume energy shipments.
“The final cargoes that transited the
Strait of Hormuz before the conflict are now arriving at their destinations.
This is where the paper traded markets are meeting physical reality, and the
40-day gap in global energy flows is truly exposed,” Sultan al Jaber, chief
executive office of Abu Dhabi National Oil Co., said in a Linkedin post on Thursday.
That gap can be seen in the premium
refiners are willing to pay to secure cargoes of crude that are available in
the near term. Traders at some Asian refineries, speaking on condition of
anonymity, said they were no longer focused on price, and were simply seeking
to secure barrels of crude wherever they could to ensure energy security.
Dated Brent – the most important benchmark
in the physical oil market used to price millions of barrels a day – hit
a record $144 a
barrel before the ceasefire, surpassing its 2008 highs even as futures remain
far below their record levels.
By Friday it had dropped to $126 a barrel,
still more than $30 above June delivery Brent futures, while traders including
Trafigura Group and Gunvor Group were
bidding more
than $22 a barrel above Dated Brent for cargoes of oil in the North Sea for
delivery in late April and early May. Supplies from Nigeria for loading next
month have been offered as high as
$25 per barrel above the benchmark, compared with less than $3 before the Iran
war began.
More
A Panicked Race
for Barrels Grips the Global Oil Market - Bloomberg
In other news.
Powell, Bessent discussed Anthropic’s Mythos AI
cyber threat with major U.S. banks
Published Fri, Apr 10 2026 8:38 AM EDT Updated
Fri, Apr 10 2026 12:28 PM EDT
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and Treasury
Secretary Scott Bessent met with
major U.S. bank CEOs this week to discuss the possible cyber risks raised
by Anthropic’s Mythos model, CNBC
confirmed Friday.
The bank heads were already in Washington,
D.C., for a Financial Services Forum board meeting when a special gathering was
called on Tuesday to discuss Mythos, according to people familiar with the
matter, who asked not to be named in order to share information about a
confidential matter.
The CEOs had a dinner early in the week
when they were called to meet at the Treasury Department, one of the people
said. JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon was the only
major banking CEO who could not attend the meeting, they added.
Bank of America’s Brian
Moynihan, Citigroup’s Jane
Fraser, Goldman Sachs CEO David
Solomon, Morgan Stanley’s Ted Pick
and Wells Fargo CEO Charlie
Scharf were all in attendance, Bloomberg reported, citing people familiar with
the meeting.
Bloomberg and
the Financial
Times were
the first to report the meeting with bank executives.
The Federal Reserve declined to comment to
CNBC. The Treasury Department did not respond to a request for comment.
The surprise meeting between the bank
chiefs and the two most powerful federal monetary regulators was a signal that
the advanced capabilities of AI are a top concern in the Trump administration
and could threaten the foundation of the U.S. financial system.
Earlier this week, Anthropic rolled out
the new artificial intelligence model, Claude Mythos Preview, in a limited
capacity due to concerns that hackers could exploit its capabilities.
Banking giant JPMorgan Chase was among the
initial launch partners for the cybersecurity initiative, known as Project
Glasswing. Other partners include Apple, Google, Microsoft and Nvidia
Ahead of the release, the company briefed
senior U.S. government officials on the model and its “offensive and defensive
cyber applications.”
An Anthropic official told CNBC that it’s
been in “ongoing discussions” with the U.S. government, including the
Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency and the Center for AI
Standards and Innovation, about Claude Mythos Preview’s cyber capabilities.
“The dangers of getting this wrong are
obvious, but if we get it right, there is a real opportunity to create a
fundamentally more secure internet and world than we had before the advent of
AI-powered cyber capabilities,” CEO Dario Amodei wrote in a
post on X, accompanying Glasswing’s rollout.
The Trump administration’s engagement
about the Mythos model comes as Anthropic challenges the Department of Defense
over its recent labeling of the AI lab as a supply chain risk to national
security.
More
Powell, Bessent
met with U.S. Bank CEOs over Anthropic's Mythos threat
New Anthropic AI tool unlocks capabilities no one
has found before, says cyber expert John Carlin
Fri, Apr 10 2026 1:41 PM EDT
Video Approx. 5 minutes.
New Anthropic AI tool unlocks capabilities no one has found before, says cyber expert John Carlin
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians.
Here's what smart people are saying about what the failed US-Iran peace
talks and Trump's blockade mean for markets
Sun, April 12, 2026 at
6:54 PM GMT+1
The US and Iran remained at a standstill after 21 hours of
peace talks between the two delegations failed to reach an agreement, Vice President JD Vance announced at a press
conference in Islamabad early on Sunday.
In response, President
Donald Trump said the US would enforce a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. About 20% of the world's liquefied
natural gas and oil supply passes through that waterway, which sits off Iran's
coast. The ongoing military conflict, which began in February, has effectively
halted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, sending gas and jet fuel prices skyrocketing.
---- Here's what people in business are saying about the
failed negotiations.
Patrick De Haan
Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy,
wrote on X that the lack of a peace deal likely means oil prices will continue to rise as the Strait remains
under Iran's control.
"With the US not
coming to agreement or terms with Iran, it is likely that the Strait will
remain under their control and that oil prices and thus gasoline, diesel and
jet fuel prices keep rising due to the likely continued closure of the Strait,"
he wrote, later adding, "Not looking good for fuel prices globally."
Marko Kolanovic
Marko Kolanovic, former JPMorgan chief market strategist,
wrote in an X post: "The peace deal that I identified as
unrealistic (i.e. fake when announced) caused Oil to drop ~15%, broad stock to
rally ~5%, tech momentum stocks ~25%. Now exposed as such - Oil and stocks
should retrace that move (+75mb of Oil was lost in time wasted). Crash is quite
possible."
In a reply on X to a post
that questioned JD Vance's assertion that the talks failed over Iran's nuclear
ambitions, Kolanovic said: "Exactly, hence likely no taco as they are
already selling to public why it failed. It's his famous 'nuclear west in supermarket'
and how he justifies war to himself. I'm sure Iran would have agreed with
favorable hormuz/sanctions outcome."
Kyle Rodda
Kyle Rodda, analyst at
Capital.com, told Bloomberg: "The key question for Monday is
whether markets interpret this as a temporary breakdown in negotiations or a
structural collapse of the ceasefire framework. That distinction will determine
whether the risk-off move fades quickly or extends further."
Charu Chanana
Charu Chanana, chief
investment strategist at Saxo Markets, was quoted by Bloomberg as saying: "The talks ending
without a deal is a setback. For markets, this means the relief trade is likely
to fade. Oil may see fresh gains, risk sentiment takes a hit again, and Hormuz
is likely to remain a live choke-point risk even if it is not fully shut."
More
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section Updates as they get reported.
Solid-state nuclear battery claims 100-year power for ultra-low
energy devices
NRD
introduces a solid-state nuclear battery designed to power sensors and devices
for over 100 years.
Apr 10, 2026 05:10 PM EST
A U.S.-based nuclear materials firm has
unveiled a solid-state battery it claims can deliver continuous power for more
than a century without maintenance.
The device targets ultra-low power
electronics operating in remote or hard-to-service environments.
NRD LLC said its NBV series uses a
betavoltaic design powered by Nickel-63 to generate electricity through
radioactive decay.
The system is sealed in a solid-state
architecture and is designed for applications where replacing or recharging
batteries is not practical.
Betavoltaic devices convert energy
released during beta decay into electrical current.
Unlike conventional batteries, they rely
on a continuous decay process, allowing them to operate for extended periods,
though at extremely low power levels.
According to the company, the NBV series
is designed to support electronics that require steady, long-term energy
supply, particularly in environments where access is limited or maintenance is
costly.
Power from radioactive decay
NRD claims the battery can deliver power
outputs ranging from 5 nanowatts to 500 nanowatts.
The device operates within a voltage
range of 1.0 V to 20.0 V and a nominal current between 7.5 nA and 33 nA, all
within a compact 20 mm by 20 mm by 12 mm form factor.
These specifications place the device
firmly in the ultra-low-power category, making it suitable for sensors, data
logging systems, and monitoring equipment that require continuous but minimal
energy input.
More
Nickel-63 nuclear battery claims 100-year ultra-low power life
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt Clocks
(usdebtclock.org)
Remember everything is right until it's wrong. You'll know when
it's wrong.
Ernest Hemingway
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