Baltic
Dry Index. 2201 +40 Brent Crude 95.20
Spot
Gold 4750 Spot Silver 76.48
U
S 2 Year Yield 3.81 +0.03
US
Federal Debt. 39.102 trillion
US
GDP 31.316 trillion
When plunder becomes a way of life, men create for themselves a
legal system that authorizes it and a moral code that glorifies it.
Frederic Bastiat
A
bleak weekend looks bleaker! A weekend
to avert World War Three, nuclear World War Two?
But
has Israel/America already tipped the US and global economy into the Great
Depression 2.0?
If
it has, a Great Tribulation comes next.
Consumer
sentiment hits record low, inflation fears rise amid Iran war
Published
Fri, Apr 10 2026 10:07 AM EDT Updated
Fri, Apr 10 2026 11:48 AM EDT
Consumer
confidence plunged to a record low in April as fears mounted over rising energy
prices and the broader impact of the Iran war, according to a University of
Michigan survey Friday.
The
university’s headline index of consumer sentiment tumbled to 47.6, down 10.7%
from the March survey to its lowest on record. Current conditions and
expectations indexes also saw double-digit monthly declines.
The
drop in sentiment coincided with a sharp spike in inflation expectations, with
respondents seeing prices up 4.8% in a year from now, a full percentage point
rise from the March reading to its highest since August 2025. The one-year
outlook in April 2025 was 6.5% following President Donald Trump’s “liberation day”
tariff announcement.
Survey
comments “show that many consumers blame the Iran conflict for unfavorable
changes to the economy,” said the survey’s director, Joanne Hsu.
However,
Hsu also noted that most of the interviews were completed before the April 7
ceasefire. The survey, then, primarily reflects conditions from March.
“Economic
expectations will likely improve after consumers gain confidence that the
supply disruptions stemming from the Iran conflict have ended and gas prices
have moderated,” she said.
The
survey release came shortly after the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that
its all-items consumer price index rose 0.9% in March, pushing the 12-month
inflation rate to 3.3%. BLS officials said most of the increase in the headline
number came from the surge in energy prices, with food inflation little
changed.
Inflation
expectations at the five-year window in the University of Michigan survey moved
higher as well, to 3.4%, a 0.2 percentage point monthly increase though a
percentage point below the level of a year ago.
Consumer
sentiment hits record low, inflation fears rise amid Iran war
Iran’s
speaker says negotiations with U.S. can’t start without Lebanon ceasefire,
asset release
Published
Fri, Apr 10 2026 10:20 AM EDT Updated Fri, Apr 10 2026 1:50 PM EDT
The
speaker of Iran’s
parliament warned Friday that scheduled negotiations to
end the war with the United States cannot begin unless Israel halts
attacks on Lebanon and
unless the U.S. releases Tehran’s frozen assets.
Speaker
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf issued that ultimatum after an American delegation led
by Vice President JD Vance flew
to Islamabad for talks with Iran, which reportedly will include Ghalibaf and
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.
Ghalibaf’s
conditions strain Iran’s already fragile two-week
ceasefire with the U.S., which began Tuesday.
“Two
of the measures mutually agreed upon between the parties have yet to be
implemented: a ceasefire in Lebanon and the release of Iran’s blocked assets
prior to the commencement of negotiations,” Ghalibaf said in an X post.
“These
two matters must be fulfilled before negotiations begin,” he wrote.
Meanwhile,
President Donald Trump has
expressed frustration with Iran continuing to block most shipping traffic
through the Strait
of Hormuz.
The
strait is the world’s most vital
shipping route for oil. Before the war, 20% of the world’s crude was
transported through that passage.
Earlier
Friday, Vance told reporters he thinks the negotiations will be “positive,”
while warning Iran not to “play us.”
More
Iran
war negotiations with U.S. threatened by Lebanon attacks
Billionaire
Ray Dalio Maps Iran War And Says We Are Only 4 Steps Away From A World War
Thu,
April 9, 2026 at 1:01 PM GMT+1
Ray
Dalio says markets are pricing in a quick end to the Iran war, but his 13-step
world war cycle suggests they are badly mistaken and President Trump’s latest
threats may be proving his point.
Trump
set an 8 p.m. ET Tuesday deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz,
threatening Iran’s ‘Whole
Civilization Will Die Tonight‘ if no deal is reached.
For
Dalio, that kind of escalation fits a pattern he has tracked across 500 years
of history.
What
The Cycle Says
In
an article on X, the Bridgewater Associates founder laid out a
13-step sequence he says historically precedes all-out world wars.
His
assessment: We are at Step 9, defined as multi-theater conflicts happening
simultaneously across multiple continents.
Dalio
traces the sequence from trade wars and proxy conflicts through the
weaponization of chokepoints, culminating in direct great-power military
combat. Steps 10 through 13 include full-scale war and a violent restructuring
of the world order.
The
Overextension Problem
Dalio’s
core argument is that the US-Iran conflict is not a standalone event. It is one
theater in a broader world war with blocs forming along clear lines: China,
Russia, Iran and North Korea on one side; the US, Europe, Israel and Japan on
the other.
He
argues that how the US performs against Iran, a middle power, will be watched
closely by rivals in Asia and Europe, and may reshape calculations about
whether American security guarantees are credible.
Dalio
says no dominant power in history has successfully fought on multiple fronts
simultaneously.
More
Billionaire Ray
Dalio Maps Iran War And Says We Are Only 4 Steps Away From A World War
In
other news.
The
Oil Shock Is Worse Than You Think
The
war with Iran is preventing huge amounts of oil from flowing out of the Persian
Gulf, but the prices that many people track don’t fully capture the scale of
the disruption.
April
10, 2026
Google
the price of oil, and you’ll most likely find two widely quoted prices for the
commodity, one in the United States, the other in Europe.
These
prices, which are constantly changing on electronic markets, suggest that
although the war with Iran has made energy a lot more expensive, things are not
nearly as bad as they were four years ago, after Russia invaded Ukraine.
But
if you needed an actual tanker full of oil — and quickly — it would cost you
dearly.
On
Tuesday, before President Trump said the United States and Iran had reached a
cease-fire agreement, a commonly cited price of Brent oil, the European one,
was about $109 a barrel. That was well below highs reached in 2022, when that
price briefly topped $130, without adjusting for inflation.
But
in the market where energy companies buy and sell liquid oil transported on
ships, the price was almost $145 a barrel, a record and more than double the
price before the United States and Israel attacked Iran on Feb. 28, according
to Argus Media, a company that tracks commodity prices.
The
reason the two prices were so different is that the first, more commonly cited
price is the futures price. It’s a financial instrument that reflects how
valuable traders think oil will be in a month or two, and — in simplest terms —
is not unlike a stock price. The second is often called the spot price, and it
is tied to the delivery of many tons of crude oil, which a refinery can turn
into gasoline, diesel and jet fuel.
The
futures and spot prices are rarely exactly the same, but the gap between them
has grown unusually big in the past few weeks, so much so that oil executives
and analysts say futures prices no longer accurately reflect the extent of the
supply shock that the world is experiencing.
“The
futures market is not representing the on-the-ground and on-the-water reality
of oil at all,” said Vikas Dwivedi, global energy strategist at Macquarie
Group, an Australian financial services firm. “It’s quite broken.”
Mike
Wirth, the chief executive of Chevron, the second-largest U.S. oil company,
expressed similar concerns last month at a Houston energy conference, CERAWeek
by S&P Global.
“Physical
prices and physical supplies would reflect a tighter market than I think the
forward curve reflects,” Mr. Wirth said, referring to the futures market.
More
Iran
War Drives Deeper Oil Shock Than Prices Reveal - The New York Times
Why
$3 gas won't come back anytime soon, even with a ceasefire in Iran
Expect
more pain at the pump in the weeks and months ahead.
Fri,
April 10, 2026 at 12:32 AM GMT+1
In
the hours before President Trump announced a
temporary ceasefire with
Iran on Tuesday, the average gas price in the United States edged up to $4.14
per gallon of regular fuel, according
to AAA.
Two
days later, that price — now
$4.17 per gallon —
is still rising.
Millions
of cash-strapped Americans are probably hoping that the current ceasefire — a
two-week pause to hammer out a lasting peace deal — will mean a swift return to
where gas was before the U.S. and Israel went to war with Iran on Feb. 28:
under $3 per gallon.
After
all, haven’t the Iranians agreed as part of the ceasefire to lift their
month-long blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which has effectively choked off
one-fifth of the world’s oil supply? And if oil starts flowing out of the
Persian Gulf again, doesn’t that mean gas prices will plummet?
Unfortunately,
no — or at least not anytime soon.
“There’s
no going back to what we had,” Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s
Analytics, told
USA Today.
“At least not this year.”
Here’s
why you can expect more pain at the pump in the weeks and months ahead.
Has
the Strait of Hormuz really reopened?
The
international benchmark for oil prices is called Brent crude. Brent is a type
of oil, mostly from the North Sea. Traders effectively place bets on the future
price of oil by buying and selling Brent futures on financial markets, which in
turn affects the price of oil itself. Real-world events drive their decisions
to buy or sell.
When
Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices rose. If Iran reopens the strait,
oil prices should theoretically fall. Brent crude is easy to refine into
gasoline, so gas prices tend to rise and fall along with Brent prices.
But
the problem is that the Strait of Hormuz hasn’t actually reopened yet — and
there are serious doubts about what “reopening” means exactly (not to mention
how long it might last).
Just
hours after Trump announced the ceasefire, for instance, Iranian state media
said Tehran had turned some tankers away and “fully closed” the strait again.
Semi-official outlets affiliated with Iran's Revolutionary Guard reported that
the strait’s closure came in response to a deadly wave of Israeli attacks in
Lebanon.
There’s
been some confusion over whether Hormuz is currently closed or open. Iran seems
to have stopped laying mines and attacking vessels, and the regime has said it
will allow for safe passage if ships coordinate with the country’s armed
forces. At the same time, Tehran is insisting that if the Strait of Hormuz is
to fully reopen, Israel must stop bombarding the Iranian-backed militant group
Hezbollah in Lebanon — a contentious issue that threatens the ceasefire.
Finally, the regime is also demanding formal control over the strait going
forward, with a reported toll of $2 million per vessel.
More
Why $3 gas won't
come back anytime soon, even with a ceasefire in Iran
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Consumer prices rose 3.3% in March, as energy
prices spiked due to Iran conflict
Published Fri, Apr 10 2026 8:31 AM EDT
Consumer prices spiked in March as the Iran war
sent energy costs soaring and took the Federal Reserve further from its
inflation target, according to a Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday.
Underlying inflation, however, was relatively tame.
The consumer price index increased a seasonally
adjusted 0.9% for the month, putting the annual inflation rate at 3.3%, pushed
by a 10.9% surge in energy costs. Both numbers were in line with the Dow Jones
consensus. The annual rate was the highest since April 2024 and up from 2.4% in
February.
However, excluding food and energy, core prices
rose much less – just 0.2% for the month and 2.6% from a year ago, both 0.1
percentage point below forecast, indicating that underlying inflation was more
contained. There even were even pockets of outright price declines, as medical
care, personal care, and used cars and trucks all fell during the month.
The Iran conflict was the story for the monthly
inflation reading, as gasoline soared 21.2%, accounting for nearly
three-quarters of the headline price increase, according to the BLS.
----Traders showed little initial reaction
to the report, with stock market futures slightly higher and Treasury yields
mixed.
Policymakers have particularly attuned to services
prices as signs of underlying inflation excluding tariff impact and the war.
Services excluding energy rose 0.2% for the month
and were up 3% from a year ago. Similarly, shelter was up 0.3% monthly and 3%
annually, tied for its lowest level since August 2021.
Food prices were unchanged for the month and up
2.7% annually, with food at home falling 0.2%. New vehicle prices rose just
0.1%.
There were some signs of tariff and war impact:
Airline fares jumped 2.7% while apparel climbed 1%.
CPI inflation report March 2026:
Bank of England warns of 2008-style financial crash
as Iran conflict decimates British economy
10 April 2026
Bank of England Governor
Andrew Bailey has warned that the conflict in Iran could trigger a financial
crisis similar to the 2008 meltdown.
Mr Bailey said turmoil in
the $3trillion private credit sector, equivalent to around £2.2trillion, could
spread across the global economy.
Speaking on Thursday in
his role as Financial Stability Board chairman, he said Britain is already
facing an energy shock alongside volatility in debt markets.
Mr Bailey drew
comparisons with the sub-prime mortgage sector of the mid-2000s, whose collapse
triggered a global banking crisis.
He described private
credit as "a relatively opaque world" that has not yet been tested
under severe market stress.
Private credit refers to
lending provided by hedge funds and other non-bank institutions rather than
traditional lenders.
The sector typically
offers higher returns than corporate and Government bonds. It has expanded
rapidly since the 2008 financial crisis, growing from $2trillion in 2020 to
$3trillion last year, according to Morgan Stanley.
This growth has been
driven in part by lighter regulation compared with traditional banking.
Neither UK nor US
regulators directly oversee the sector, as it is largely used by institutional
investors.
Mr Bailey said:
"What if that coincides with one of these other things, let's say private
credit, becoming a much bigger problem? What if the users and the investors in
private credit lose confidence in it, and we get a bigger reaction?"
Regulatory concerns have
increased following several high-profile failures.
In the United States,
firms including TriColor and FirstBrands, both backed by private credit
lenders, have encountered difficulties.
In the UK, Market
Financial Solutions collapsed earlier this year amid allegations of fraud. JP
Morgan chief executive Jamie Dimon warned of risks within the sector earlier
this week.
Mr Dimon said there were
"cockroaches" in private credit and that losses could be "higher
than expected".
There are signs that
investor confidence may already be weakening.
Investors sought to
withdraw more than $20billion from private credit funds in the first three
months of this year, according to the Financial Times.
Mr Bailey said similar
dynamics were seen during the sub-prime crisis: "It meant the sub-prime
problem was worse than we imagined it could be if that dynamic had not
happened."
The Governor warned that
uncovering problems in one part of the sector could affect confidence more
broadly.
He explained: "Do
you start to lose confidence in the whole thing? I'm not saying it will happen
this time – it depends on how investors react and what they think they are
getting."
Bank of England warns of 2008-style financial
crash as Iran conflict decimates British economy
Americans quit subscription streaming services in
droves as cost of living continues to climb, report finds
Updated Thu, April
9, 2026 at 2:09 PM GMT+1
Americans are quitting subscription
streaming services in droves as the cost of living continues to climb, a recent report has
found.
Streaming services such
as Netflix and Hulu have become increasingly popular in recent years, but Deloitte’s 2026 Digital Media
Trends report, released late
last month, shows how Americans are getting frustrated over the cost to have
their favorite movies and TV shows at the click of a button.
About 40 percent of
Americans have cut back on streaming services in the last three months because
of financial concerns, according to the report.
“As the cost of everyday
essentials like food and housing remain high, many consumers are reevaluating
their budgets and cutting back on nonessential expenditures,” Deloitte said in
its survey results. “At the same time, prices for media and entertainment
services continue to climb.”
Nearly 75 percent of
Americans are frustrated that the streaming platform they subscribe to
continues to raise prices, according to the report.
Just as the report was
released, Netflix announced it was raising prices for a second year running.
The cost of a standard
plan with ads increased by $1 to $8.99 per month and ad-free plans jumped an
extra $2 per month.
The standard plan without
ads, which allows viewing on two different devices simultaneously, now costs
$19.99 per month, and the premium plan with no ads and streaming on four
different devices at once costs $26.99.
Disney also increased the cost of its streaming services last September.
More
Tech industry lays off nearly 80,000 employees in
the first quarter of 2026 — almost 50% of affected positions cut due to AI
Wed, April 8, 2026 at
2:34 PM GMT+1
78,557 workers in the
tech industry have reportedly been laid off from January 1 to April 2026, with
more than 76% of the affected positions located in the U.S. Nikkei Asia reports that 37,638 of these cuts, or
47.9%, have been attributed to the reduced need for human workers because of AI
and workflow automation. Despite that, Cognizant Chief AI Officer Babak Hodjat
says that it will still take more than a year before we completely see the
impact of modern AI technologies on the workforce.
“I don’t know if they are
directly related to actual productivity gains,” Hodjat told Nikkei in
reference to the job cuts. “Sometimes, you know, AI becomes the scapegoat from
a financial perspective, like when a company hired too many, or they want to
resize, and it gets blamed on AI.” Despite that, he said that AI-driven layoffs
could still happen, but that it would take another six months to a year “before
companies start seeing real productivity gains from AI,” and that “it will be
painful for all of us as we’re going through it, and simply because it’s a
transition.”
“I don’t know if they are
directly related to actual productivity gains,” Hodjat told Nikkei in
reference to the job cuts. “Sometimes, you know, AI becomes the scapegoat from
a financial perspective, like when a company hired too many, or they want to
resize, and it gets blamed on AI.” Despite that, he said that AI-driven layoffs
could still happen, but that it would take another six months to a year “before
companies start seeing real productivity gains from AI,” and that “it will be
painful for all of us as we’re going through it, and simply because it’s a
transition.”
This does not bode well
for the industry, which has already been reeling from layoffs. Oracle has
quietly cut more than 10,000 positions recently, with the savings purportedly
allocated to data center funding. Many institutions and industry leaders have
already been warning about AI-driven layoffs, with Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei and Ford CEO Jim Farley saying that the
technology will wipe out half of entry-level white-collar jobs in the U.S. A Stanford study saw many
entry-level coding and customer service jobs are already being affected, with an MIT simulation showing that AI can
replace nearly 12% of the U.S. workforce, amounting to nearly $1.2 trillion in lost salaries.
More
Technology
Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
In mainstream media
under reported news.
Russia's
AK-47 manufacturer is making special bullets for its assault rifles to knock
drones out of the sky
Fri,
April 10, 2026 at 5:38 AM GMT+1
- Russia is
looking to go big in the anti-drone ammo game, with a new 5.45mm rifle
round.
- Kalashnikov
Concern said it plans to mass-produce bullets that split into fragments to
kill drones.
- Ukraine is
already developing similar bullets, as such designs creep into the global
defense industry.
Russia's
primary small arms manufacturer, Kalashnikov Concern, said on Thursday that
it's developing 5.45mm rifle rounds specifically designed to disable drones.
Russia's
primary small arms manufacturer, Kalashnikov Concern, said on Thursday that
it's developing 5.45mm rifle rounds specifically designed to disable drones.
Though
similar types of bullets have emerged sporadically on the Russian battlefield
since last year, Kalashnikov Concern said it plans to mass-produce the rounds,
formalizing a national effort to make
drone-killing ammo for
individual troops.
The
armsmaker said the 30-round magazine is built for the AK-12 gas-operated
assault rifle, with each bullet releasing a "multi-element projectile that
significantly increases the probability of hitting UAVs."
Kalashnikov
Concern said the round can be used in burst and single-fire modes and was
tested against a drone hovering in the air and another drone flying along a
preset path.
Ukraine
has been making its own anti-drone
rifle rounds,
with a bullet called the "Horoshok," or "Little Pea," that
splits into multiple fragments to widen the area of impact. Kyiv said in
December that it plans to produce 400,000 of these rounds a month.
More
China’s
ally demonstrates ‘blackout’ bomb, cluster warhead with 7-hectare lethality
Thu,
April 9, 2026 at 12:49 PM GMT+1
In
a significant display of military diversification, recent exercises in North
Korea have confirmed the successful testing of advanced electronic and
structural disruption weapons designed to affect targets within an area of up
to 7 hectares.
Overseen
by high-ranking military officials, these tests signify a move toward
integrating non-kinetic "soft-kill" assets alongside traditional
ballistic capabilities.
The
demonstrations included an electromagnetic
weapon system and
a specialized carbon fiber bomb, both categorized as strategic assets intended
for cross-domain military application.
Neutralizing
infrastructure
The
electromagnetic weapon system tested represents a departure from traditional
explosive-based munitions.
This
technology utilizes concentrated bursts of electromagnetic energy to target and
incapacitate electronic infrastructure.
By
overloading sensitive circuits, the system can effectively blind radar arrays,
disable communication networks, and freeze command centers without leveling
buildings.
According
to reports, these systems are designed to be combined with other military means
to paralyze an opponent’s digital response capabilities during the opening
phases of a conflict.
The
"blackout" mechanism
A
separate but equally critical demonstration involved a carbon fiber bomb. This
weapon is specifically engineered to target electrical
power grids.
Upon
detonation, it disperses a dense cloud of highly conductive carbon filaments.
When these fibers settle on high-voltage power lines and transformers, they
create massive short circuits, leading to immediate electrical failures and
widespread blackouts.
These
"special assets" provide a way to systematically shut down industrial
and military production by removing the energy required to sustain them.
More
China’s ally
demonstrates ‘blackout’ bomb, cluster warhead with 7-hectare lethality
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt Clocks
(usdebtclock.org)
Exponent
Calculator
Enter
values into any two of the input fields to solve for the third.
This
weekend’ s music diversion. A blast from my past. Between 1979 and 1982, I and
friends and girlfriends would dine and listen to Vince and his band at the Red
Blazer Too, a short block and a half from my apartment between Park and
Lexington on E 87th Street. We brought in visiting guests from
London, Germany and Switzerland too, if they were in NYC on a Tuesday night.
Approx.
6 minutes.
Vince
Giordano and the Nighthawks - Who's Sorry Now?
Vince Giordano and
the Nighthawks - Who's Sorry Now?
Next,
more fun with numbers. Approx. 8 minutes.
Turing
Machines: How a Simple Machine Shattered Hilbert's Dream
Turing Machines:
How a Simple Machine Shattered Hilbert's Dream - YouTube
Finally, the story behind the Sunderland flyingboat. Approx. 20 minutes.
The 'Hopeless' British Flying Boat That
Closed the Atlantic Gap
The 'Hopeless' British Flying Boat That Closed the Atlantic Gap
Sometimes the law defends plunder and participates in it. Sometimes the law places the whole apparatus of judges, police, prisons and gendarmes at the service of the plunderers, and treats the victim - when he defends himself - as a criminal.
Frederic Bastiat
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