Baltic
Dry Index. 2104 +41 Brent Crude 64.14
Spot Gold 4068 US 2 Year Yield 3.55 -0.02
US Federal Debt. 38.175 trillion
US GDP 31.565 trillion.
The enthusiasm for Tesla and other bubble-basket stocks is reminiscent of the March 2000 dot-com bubble. As was the case then, the bulls rejected conventional valuation methods for a handful of stocks that seemingly could only go up. While we don't know exactly when the bubble will pop, it eventually will.
David Einhorn
A new trading week and signs that the US federal government shutdown might end this week.
Signs of a thaw in the USA v China trade war too.
Is the Santa Claus stocks rally coming early this year?
South Korea’s Kospi jumps more than 3% to lead
Asia recovery rally after AI-fueled rout last week
Published Sun, Nov 9 2025 6:58 PM EST
Asia-Pacific markets traded higher Monday,
after artificial intelligence valuation concerns fueled declines in markets
across the region last week.
Investors in Asia are also parsing October
inflation data from China over the weekend, which came in above
expectations.
Headline consumer inflation was at 0.2%
year on year, compared to expectations of zero growth from economists polled by
Reuters. Wholesale inflation saw a softer-than-expected drop of 2.1% year on
year, against the expected 2.2% decline.
South Korea’s Kospi climbed 3.48%, led by
banks and insurance stocks, while the small-cap Kosdaq was 1.29% up.
Heavyweights on the Kospi index like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix posted
gains of about 2.6% and 5.78%, respectively.
Other top gainers also included SK Inc,
the holding company of South Korea’s second largest chaebol — or family run
conglomerate —SK Group, which was up about 10%. GS Holdings, which is in the
energy, retail and construction sector and also one of the country’s largest
chaebols, advanced over 11%.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 advanced 1.31%,
while the broad-based Topix was up 0.62%. Yields of 10-year Japanese government
bonds inched up to as high as 1.695%, their highest since October.
On Monday, minutes from the Bank of
Japan’s October meeting revealed that the BOJ seemed more inclined toward a
near-term rate hike, saying that “it is likely that conditions for taking a
further step toward the normalization of the policy interest rate have almost
been met.”
However, the BOJ also said there were
other factors to consider, such as the need to examine to what extent the
“underlying inflation rate has become entrenched.”
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index also joined
the recovery rally, up 0.89%, but the CSI 300 on mainland China bucked the
trend and lost 0.24%.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 gained
0.73%.
India’s Nifty 50 added 0.43%, while the
Sensex index was 0.51% higher.
On Friday stateside in the U.S., the Nasdaq Composite continued
to fall, but the Dow Jones
Industrial Average and S&P
500 inched into positive territory after Senate Minority Leader Chuck
Schumer offered
up a new plan to Republicans that would enable the record-breaking
U.S. government shutdown to end.
A survey from the University of Michigan
revealed Friday that consumer sentiment in the country has neared
its lowest level ever. The data comes just a day after firm Challenger,
Gray & Christmas reported that layoff announcements in October reached
their highest level for the month in 22 years.
Asia-Pacific
markets: China inflation data, AI valuations
Senate takes first step toward ending the
government shutdown
Updated 4:25 AM GMT, November 10, 2025
WASHINGTON (AP) — The Senate took the
first step to end the government shutdown on Sunday
after a group of moderate Democrats agreed to proceed without a guaranteed
extension of health care subsidies, angering many in their caucus who say
Americans want them to continue the fight.
In a test vote that is the first in a
series of required procedural maneuvers, the Senate voted 60-40 to move toward
passing compromise legislation to fund the government and hold a later vote on
extending Affordable Care Act tax credits that expire Jan. 1. Final passage
could be several days away if Democrats object and delay the process.
The agreement does not guarantee the
health care subsidies will be extended, as Democrats have demanded for almost
six weeks. Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer of New York voted against
moving ahead with the package, along with all but eight of his Democratic
colleagues.
A group of three former governors — New
Hampshire Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, New Hampshire Sen. Maggie Hassan and Independent
Sen. Angus King of Maine — broke the six-week stalemate on Sunday when they
agreed to vote to advance three bipartisan annual spending bills and extend the
rest of government funding until late January in exchange for a mid-December
vote on extending the health care tax credits.
The agreement also includes a reversal of
the mass firings of federal workers by the Trump administration since the
shutdown began on Oct. 1 and would ensure that federal workers receive back
pay.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune quickly
endorsed the deal and called an immediate vote to begin the process of
approving it as the shutdown continued to disrupt
flights nationwide, threaten food
assistance for millions of Americans and leave federal workers without
pay.
“The time to act is now,” Thune said.
Returning to the White House on Sunday
evening after attending a football game, President Donald Trump did not say
whether he endorsed the deal. But he said, “It looks like we’re getting close
to the shutdown ending.”
More
Senate
takes first step toward ending the government shutdown | AP News
Global week ahead: AI wobble casts shadow over
‘Davos for geeks’
Published Sat, Nov 8 2025 10:58 PM EST
The city of Lisbon in Portugal turns to
tech next week, as it plays host to the annual Web Summit conference. The
event, also known as the “Davos for geeks,” will feature some of the biggest
names in technology at an interesting time for the sector. It attracted more
than 70 ,000 attendees last year.
Main stage attractions include leaders
from Meta, Lovable, Qualcomm and Microsoft to name just a few. CNBC’s Arjun Kharpal will be on
the ground, speaking to big players, including the CEOs of Lyft, Oura, DeepL
and Cohere.
The event comes as the AI-fueled market
rally faces increased scrutiny from investors, big market voices, politicians
and regulators. Concerns of a bubble in the
sector spooked
global markets into a rollercoaster week, after famed short-seller Michael
Burry placed a massive $1.1 billion bet against AI darlings Nvidia and
Palantir.
But can this take the shine off AI at Web
Summit in Portugal this week? If the program is anything to go by, not only is
AI the dominant topic, but also the answer to almost every question. Headline
panels are titled “Smarter plays: How AI is changing the game,” “The age of
AI,” “The Future of AI is visual,” and the “AI talent wars.” No mention of
bubbles or over-inflated valuations.
The recent whiplash against major AI
stocks from Silicon Valley to London to Tokyo will certainly cast a shadow on
the event, but there is something else that’s also causing a headache to tech
honchos as they look to arrive in Lisbon next week.
According
to reports,
there is a private jet logjam at Lisbon airport which has seen some planes
forced to turn away and land at airports over 2 hours from the city. The Web
Summit organizers reportedly told attendees, “Please be advised there is
currently a shortage of private jet slots during Web Summit at Lisbon airport
and surrounding smaller airports.”
Earnings this week:
Monday: CoreWeave, MedioBanca
Tuesday: Vodafone, Porsche
Wednesday: Infineon, Cisco Systems
Thursday: Siemens, Deutsche Telekom,
Alibaba, Walt Disney
Friday: Richemont, Allianz
Global week ahead:
AI wobble casts shadow over 'Davos for geeks'
In other news.
China suspends some critical mineral export curbs
to the U.S. as trade truce takes hold
Published Sun, Nov 9 2025 11:03 PM EST
China has rolled back a number of
restrictions on its export of critical minerals and rare earth materials to the
United States, in a sign that a trade truce between the world’s two largest
economies is holding.
China’s Ministry of Commerce said Friday that it would suspend some export controls
on critical minerals used in military hardware, semiconductors and other
high-tech industries for a year.
The suspended restrictions, first imposed
on Oct. 9, include limits on the export of certain rare earth elements, lithium
battery materials, and processing technologies.
The export relaxations follow talks
between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Busan,
South Korea, on Oct. 30.
Beijing also reversed retaliatory curbs on exports of gallium,
germanium, antimony and other so-called super-hard materials such as synthetic
diamonds and boron nitrides. Those measures, introduced in December 2024, were
widely seen as retaliation for Washington’s expanded semiconductor export
restrictions on China.
China classifies such materials as
“dual-use items,” meaning they can be used for both civilian and military
purposes.
Beyond military applications, these
critical minerals are used across the semiconductor
industry and other high-tech sectors — sectors at the heart of
U.S.-China trade tensions.
Beijing has also suspended the stricter
end-user and end-use verification checks for exports of dual-use graphite to
the U.S., which were imposed in December 2024 alongside the broader export ban.
China dominates global production of most
critical minerals and rare earth elements and has increasingly used its export
policies as leverage in trade disputes.
As part of the latest China-U.S. trade
deal, the U.S. has agreed to several concessions, including lowering tariffs
on Chinese imports by 10 percentage points, and suspending Trump’s heightened
“reciprocal tariffs” on Chinese imports until Nov. 10, 2026.
The U.S. will also postpone a rule
announced Sept. 29 that would have blacklisted majority-owned subsidiaries of
Chinese companies on its entity list.
China
suspends some critical mineral export curbs to the U.S. as trade truce takes
hold
AI Layoffs: US Market's Worst in 20 Years – Could
the UK Be Next?
7 November 2025
Bank of England Governor
Andrew Bailey has issued a stark warning that a speculative 'AI bubble' could
be forming. This concern is rooted in the US, where the worst tech layoffs in
two decades are sending shockwaves through global markets.
The UK's financial authorities are now
closely monitoring the turmoil in the US, fearing that the fallout from
AI-sector disruptions could have significant domestic consequences. Deputy
Governor Dave Ramsden warned
on Thursday that
if the bubble bursts, it could 'weaken global demand' and lead to 'spillovers
back to the UK,' tightening financial conditions for British businesses and
investors.
Market Turmoil and Human Cost of
Overheated Valuations
The warning signs from the US tech sector
are becoming increasingly alarming. On Thursday, the Nasdaq Composite fell
1.9 per cent,
while the broader S&P 500 declined 1.1 per cent, reflecting waning investor
confidence in the AI boom.
This decline is driven by a brutal
correction in the US labour market. According to Challenger,
Gray & Christmas,
US companies announced 153,074 job cuts last month — the worst October for tech
layoffs since 2003. The figures highlight the human cost of what many see as an
overheated industry chasing unsustainable valuations.
Analysts warn this situation was
predictable. Julien Garran of MacroStrategy Partnership told DW that the massive
flow of capital into
AI has resulted in a 'misallocation of capital equivalent to 65 per cent of
US GDP — four times
bigger than the housing bubble before the 2008 financial crisis.' Despite
record investment, US Census Bureau data shows corporate AI adoption has
actually declined since summer. The gap between soaring valuations and
real-world returns is forcing a painful reckoning for the industry.
UK on High Alert Amid Ambitious AI Plans
The Bank of England is now alert to the
risks. Governor Andrew Bailey stated on Thursday that while AI could be the
'next big mover in terms of productivity,' the current market valuation remains
uncertain. He warned, 'At the same time, we could have a bubble,' highlighting
the immediate threat to the UK economy.
In contrast to the speculative frenzy
abroad, the UK is pursuing a long-term, foundational AI strategy. The
government's 'AI Opportunities Action Plan' estimates that successful AI
adoption could add up to £400
billion ($524.57 billion) to the UK economy by 2030. Central to this plan
is addressing the nation's significant skills gap.
Through Skills England, a new initiative
aims to train 7.5 million UK workers, supported by major tech firms like
Google, NVIDIA, and Microsoft. Jacqui Smith,
Minister for Skills, emphasised the importance: 'AI has the power to transform
our economy — but only if people have the right skills to utilise it
effectively.' This focus on workforce development aims to create sustainable
growth, avoiding the boom-and-bust cycle seen in the US.
Navigating Between Hype and Long-Term
Vision
Britain now faces a critical crossroads.
The immediate threat from the US's AI layoffs and market instability is real,
with the Bank of England preparing for potential fallout from a bursting
bubble. Yet, the UK's strategy is not based on speculative valuations but on
building a resilient, highly-skilled workforce that can sustain growth.
The question remains whether this
foundational approach can fortify the UK economy before the American hype
hurricane makes landfall. The coming months will reveal if Britain's cautious,
skills-focused strategy can weather the storm and capitalise on the long-term
potential of AI.
AI Layoffs: US
Market's Worst in 20 Years – Could the UK Be Next?
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Trump
says no U.S. government official will attend the G20 summit in South Africa
Published
Sat, Nov 8 2025 6:22 AM EST
President Donald Trump said on
Friday that no U.S. government official would attend the Group of 20 summit in
South Africa later this month, because of what he said were “human rights
abuses” taking place in the country.
South
Africa’s foreign ministry described the decision as “regrettable” and repeated
its rejection of Trump’s claims that white Afrikaners face persecution based on
their race in the Black-majority country.
“It
is a total disgrace that the G20 will be held in South Africa,” Trump said in a
Truth Social post. “Afrikaners (People who are descended from Dutch settlers,
and also French and German immigrants) are being killed and slaughtered, and
their land and farms are being illegally confiscated.”
“No
U.S. Government Official will attend as long as these Human Rights abuses
continue. I look forward to hosting the 2026 G20 in Miami, Florida!” Trump
said.
JD
Vance will now not travel, source says
Vice
President JD Vance, who was expected
to attend the Group of 20 world leaders in Johannesburg in Nov 22-23, was no
longer going, a source familiar with the matter said.
Trump
has taken issue with South African domestic and foreign policies - ranging from
its land policy to its case accusing Israel of genocide in the U.S. ally’s war
in Gaza.
The
president last month set the lowest cap on record for U.S. refugee admissions
and said those people admitted would be focused largely on white Afrikaners.
South
Africa’s foreign ministry said it had taken note of Trump’s “regrettable” post
on the platform, and reiterated Pretoria’s oft-stated rejection of the
accusation that Afrikaners are subjected to oppression.
Claim
not substantiated by fact
“The
claim that this community faces persecution is not substantiated by fact,” the
ministry said, adding that South Africa’s past of racial inequality gives it
the experience to help the world tackle divisions through the G20 platform.
“Our
nation is uniquely positioned to champion within the G20 a future of genuine
solidarity,” it said, adding that it looked forward to hosting a successful
summit.
Earlier
this year, Secretary of State Marco Rubio also boycotted a G20 foreign
ministers’ meeting in South Africa, which has the G20 presidency from December
2024 to November 2025.
The
United States is set to take over the G20 presidency from South Africa.
Trump U.S. G20
summit South Africa
Covid-19
Corner
This
section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Qantas
business class lounge thrown into chaos as passenger bursts into flames
7 November 2025
Screams rang out from a Qantas International Business Lounge on Thursday after a man was set
alight by a faulty power bank that exploded in his pocket.
The lithium battery device
ignited in the trousers of a 50-year-old man as he sat in the Melbourne Qantas Lounge about 11am.
Roughly 150 passengers were
forced to evacuate the lounge while staff helped the man throw the blazing
device on the floor and rushed him into a shower.
One traveller said
they 'heard screaming from the other side of the lounge' as the device
sent out sparks and 'battery acid flying everywhere', the Sydney Morning Herald reported.
'His jacket caught on fire.
They evacuated us because the smoke and smell was so strong, but I really just
hope the guy is okay,' they said.
Another wrote
online: 'Quick thinking from the man who jumped in to help and the staff
who got him in the shower and everyone else out of the lounge.'
A photo shared on social
media showed the burnt remnants of the power bank's husk surrounded by several
warning signs inside the lounge.
The man was treated for
significant burns he suffered to his leg and fingers.
Firefighters attended the
scene to ensure the fire did not spread.
Paramedics treated the
business passenger at the airport before taking him to The Alfred hospital in a
stable condition.
Qantas said it will review
its lithium battery policies following the incident.
'There was an incident at the
Qantas International Business Lounge at Melbourne Airport this morning
involving a customer's power bank,' a spokeswoman said.
'The lounge was evacuated as
a precaution and emergency services treated the customer on site.
'We worked with the Melbourne
Airport to clean the lounge and it has since reopened.'
Several airlines have strict
rules about carrying power banks on board a flight with Emirates banning the
item altogether.
Lithium battery fires, like
those caused by power banks, are notoriously difficult to put out as they have
a self-sustaining chemical reaction which causes them to continually heat up,
called thermal runaway.
The batteries pose a
significantly higher risk onboard planes where fire has the ability to spread
rapidly.
Some airlines have begun
carrying Kevlar envelopes which are made from an incredibly durable
material specifically designed to contain battery fires.
Cabin crews are trained to
put a burning device into the envelope, seal it and throw it into a plane
toilet bowl, which are typically made of metal.
Qantas business class lounge thrown into chaos as passenger bursts into
flames
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt Clocks
(usdebtclock.org)
During the dot-com days, one could take just about any company
public and reap fortunes. All you had to do was to make sky-high projections
for growth, say you were in the Internet space, and go along with unscrupulous
investment bankers and their analysts.
Vivek Wadhwa
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