Baltic
Dry Index. 2309 +14
Brent Crude 62.71
Spot Gold 4162 US 2 Year Yield 3.43 -0.03
US Federal Debt. 38.331 trillion
US GDP 31.600 trillion.
What is worth doing is worth the trouble of asking somebody to do it.
Ambrose Bierce
In the stock casinos, the Great Disconnect from the economic reality of the global economy bubbles ever higher.
Dinosaur Graeme thinks it won’t end well for the stock casinos.
In the UK, socialist spend and tax increase day arrives.
Asia-Pacific markets track Wall Street gains on
rising Fed rate-cut expectations
Published Tue, Nov 25 2025 6:39 PM EST
Asia-Pacific markets rose Wednesday,
tracking Wall Street gains on hopes that the U.S. Federal Reserve could cut
benchmark interest rates in December.
Expectations rose after Bloomberg reported
that White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett was being considered as the frontrunner to become the next
Fed chair. Investors see Hassett as someone more likely to push the central
bank toward a lower-rate environment favored by President Donald Trump.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told
CNBC on Tuesday that there was a “very good chance” that Trump
could name a new Fed chair before Christmas.
Markets are pricing in a more than 84%
chance that the Fed would cut rates in December, according to the CME FedWatch
tool. New York Fed President John Williams also said on Friday that there
was room to lower rates “in the near term.”
Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 jumped 1.94%, led
by the utilities, healthcare and financials sectors. Among the top movers on
the index were printing company Toppan Holdings, which advanced 7.54%,
tech-focused investment firm SoftBank Group, which rose
6.89%, and Otsuka Holdings, a pharmaceutical company, which rose 6.84%.
Japanese tech stocks advanced for a second
consecutive session, with semiconductor testing equipment supplier Advantest rising 2.5%
and Tokyo Electron trading
0.61% higher. Lasertec and chipmaker Renesas Electronics rose more than 2% and
1%, respectively.
The Topix index rose 0.9%.
Shares of Japanese memory chip maker
Kioxia, however, plunged more than 12% after Nikkei reported late Monday that U.S. private
equity firm Bain Capital was planning to unload about 350 billion yen ($2.24
billion) worth of its shares. The block trade will trim Bain’s combined
ownership in Kioxia to 44%, from 51%, the report said.
The Japanese supplier to Apple reported
fiscal second-quarter earnings and guidance that missed expectations after the
bell on Nov. 13. The company’s shares plummeted 23.03% the next day.
South Korea’s Kospi advanced 1.83%, and
the small-cap Kosdaq climbed 1.69%.
Australia’s ASX/S&P 200 was trading
0.86% higher. The country’s inflation accelerated in October, beating analysts’
estimates and rising at its fastest pace in seven months, the Australian Bureau
of Statistics said Wednesday.
The consumer price index rose 3.8% year on
year in October, the fastest pace since adopting a new headline inflation
measure in April, according to the official release.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose 0.22%,
and mainland China’s CSI 300 was up 0.41%. Hong Kong-listed shares of Alibaba Group fell 1.27%
after its fiscal second-quarter report on Tuesday showed adjusted
EBITA, a profitability measure closely watched by analysts, fell 78% year on
year, dragged by its instant commerce business segment. Revenue topped
estimates.
Taiwan’s Taiex index rose 1.4%, with
shares of Hon Hai Precision Industry, or Foxconn, climbing more than 2%. The
Nvidia supplier said Wisconsin Economic Development Corporation had
approved a contract amendment providing up to $16 million in additional
performance-based tax incentives to Foxconn to help expand its operations in
Racine County and invest an additional $569 million.
India’s Nifty 50 rose 0.33% in early
trading, while the BSE Sensex index fell 0.1%.
Shares of Bharti Airtel fell 2.2% after
reports that its promoter, Indian Continent Investment, an entity led by
billionaire Sunil Mittal, plans to sell 34.3 million of its shares in bulk
deals worth at least $806 million.
Overnight, the key U.S. benchmarks closed
higher after a volatile session.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average index
advanced 664.18 points, or 1.43%, to close at 47,112.45. The S&P 500 gained 0.91% to
settle at 6,765.88, while the Nasdaq
Composite climbed 0.67% to finish at 23,025.59. That marks a
turnaround from the losses seen earlier in the day.
At session lows, the S&P 500 was down
about 0.7%, while the Dow and tech-heavy Nasdaq had dropped more than 100
points, or 0.2%, and more than 1%, respectively.
Asia-Pacific
markets today: Nikkei 225, Hang Seng Index rise
The ‘S&P 493’ reveals a very different U.S.
economy
November 24, 2025
On its face, 2025 has been a good year for
the stock market. The S&P 500 was dragged out of its tariff-induced
springtime slump by
a small subset of AI-forward power players whose spectacular gains defied an otherwise
softening economy. Even now, despite a rocky November, the benchmark index is
up more than 12 percent since the start of the year.
A group of trillion-dollar brands known as
the “Magnificent Seven” — Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and
Tesla — has been at the forefront of those gains, thanks in large part to
corporate spending and intense interest in artificial intelligence. But
economists and investors are raising concerns about the companies that aren’t
part of the AI investment boom — in other words, most businesses in the United
States.
An index that leaves out the seven
high-flying tech firms — call it the S&P 493 — reveals a far weaker
picture, as smaller and lower-tech companies report lackluster sales and
declining investment.
“You have the headwind of de-globalization
and tariffs, and the tailwind of AI … those forces are battling to a draw, and
in that crosswind you get winners and losers,” said Moody’s Analytics chief
economist Mark Zandi. “Anything that is not connected to AI is throttled
lower.”
When OpenAI
unveiled its chatbot ChatGPT in late 2022, it sparked a surge in
AI investment, and a handful of tech companies that provide infrastructure and
support around the new algorithms — the picks and shovels for an AI gold rush —
caught the wave. (The Washington Post has a content partnership with OpenAI.)
AI spending supercharged the valuations of
the Magnificent Seven ever since. Shares of Nvidia, a longtime manufacturer of
video game graphics cards that became the AI chipmaker of choice, have soared
more than 1,000 percent since January 2023 as of Friday’s close. The pace of
growth cooled this year — Nvidia is up 29 percent in 2025 — and it’s leveled
off at Amazon, Meta and Tesla. (Amazon founder Jeff Bezos owns The Post.)
----Some experts are worried that the
S&P 500, an index of large-company stocks that underpins the fortunes of
millions of Americans with 401(k) and other retirement accounts, has become too
reliant on the Magnificent Seven; they collectively account for about a third
of its value, leaving the broader stock market heavily dependent on the
continued success of “the AI trade,” says Torsten Slok, chief economist at the
private equity firm Apollo Global Management.
“There is no diversification in the
S&P 500 anymore in my view … it is all the AI story now,” Slok said.
S&P Dow Jones Indices spokeswoman
Alyssa Augustyn said the objective of the S&P 500 index is to track the
performance of large companies. She added that the index is “consistent with
the sector diversification for the broader market,” referring to 11 industry
sectors including health care, financials and information technology.
Publicly traded small and midsize
companies have taken a beating by comparison. The Russell 2000, an index made
up of the smallest 2,000 companies on the public markets, lost 4.5 percent in
the one-month period leading up to Friday, compared with a loss of around 2
percent for the S&P 500.
Smaller companies have posted lackluster
financial results recently, said Wells Fargo senior market strategist Scott
Wren, who notes that a little more than a third of the companies in the Russell
2000 index either don’t make money or are losing money. Smaller companies are
being hit harder by a slowing economy, he said, as they have less of a cushion
to absorb import price increases resulting from tariffs, and less flexibility
to avoid the new duties by shifting their supply chains.
One analysis from JPMorgan and Moody’s
shows capital expenditures — a measure of how much businesses are spending on
physical assets like buildings, machinery or patents — is close to flat for
companies not connected to AI, which economists see as a worrying sign that
low-tech businesses aren’t growing.
More
The ‘S&P 493’
reveals a very different U.S. economy
Another Consumer Sentiment Gauge Yields Anxiety
November 25, 2025 at 11:00 PM GMT
For the second time in five days, a gauge
of US consumer confidence showed growing concern among Americans when it comes
to their financial future. The Conference Board’s gauge slid in November by
the most in seven months amid growing anxiety about rising
unemployment and inflation.
The figure, weaker than all estimates in a
Bloomberg survey of economists, followed a more dire readout Friday, when the
University of Michigan showed US consumer sentiment falling to one of its
lowest levels on record, with views of personal finances their dimmest since
the Great Recession. The Conference Board’s gauge of expectations for the next
six months declined to the lowest level since April, while a measu
Meanwhile, retail sales (not adjusted for
inflation) rose
a tame 0.2% in September after several months of more robust spending.
Recent corporate earnings show that while consumers have pulled back on some
big-ticket items, they’re still seeking bargains.
Retailers like Kohl’s, which joined Best
Buy, Abercrombie & Fitch and Dick’s Sporting Goods in raising its forecast,
suggest that despite their anxiety about the economy, shoppers are still willing
to spend on brands they recognize and trust. As the US holiday
spending season begins, TransUnion said more than half of those surveyed said
they expect to spend
at least the same amount as they did last year, anxiety
notwithstanding. —Jordan
Parker Erb
Another
Consumer Sentiment Gauge Shows Fears: Evening Briefing Americas - Bloomberg
Private payroll losses accelerated in the past
four weeks, ADP reports
Published Tue, Nov 25 2025 8:15 AM EST Updated
Tue, Nov 25 2025 11:21 AM EST
The U.S. labor market is showing further
signs of weakening as the pace of layoffs has picked up over the past four
weeks, payrolls processing firm ADP reported Tuesday.
Private companies lost an average of
13,500 jobs a week over the past four weeks, ADP said as part of a running
update it has been providing. That’s an acceleration from the 2,500 jobs a week
lost in the last update a week ago.
With the government shutdown still
impacting data releases, alternative information like ADP’s has been filling in
the blanks on the economic picture.
Government agencies such as the Bureaus of
Labor Statistics and Economic Analysis have released revised schedules, but
critical reports such as the monthly nonfarm payrolls count won’t come out
until December.
Policymakers at the Federal Reserve won’t
have much of the usual data they use to make forecasts when they meet again
Dec. 9-10. However, in recent days, several officials have advocated for
additional interest rate cuts, causing the market to recalibrate expectations
to now expecting a reduction at next month’s meeting.
“With the next jobs report now scheduled
for December 16 and CPI for December 18, there is little on the calendar to
derail a cut on December 10,” Jan Hatzius, chief economist at Goldman Sachs,
said in a client note Sunday.
More
Private
payroll losses accelerated in the past four weeks, ADP reports
In other news.
Expert who predicted the dotcom crash says
Americans could face a much bigger crisis soon
Albert Edwards has warned that there are
some key elements which will make the fallout worse.
24 November 2025
An economic crisis isn't something that
happens all of a sudden, but a lot of factors weaken the economy before a major
blow triggers a meltdown. The famous bearish strategist, Albert Edwards, of
Societe Generale, who had predicted the dot com crash, has sounded the alarm about a
looming financial crisis, bigger than the 2008 market crash. The analyst, who
refers to himself as a "perma bear," spoke to Bloomberg and Fortune,
sharing his opinions on the current 'AI Bubble' and the
possibility of a market correction.
Edwards, who admits that he is a very
bearish market strategist, has made some high-profile and dramatic predictions
in the past, including the dot-com bubble burst. However, not all of his
warnings have panned out, Fortune noted. "I think there's a bubble, but
there again I always think there's a bubble," Edwards told Bloomberg's
Merryn Somerset Webb, in a podcast. He was also firm in his opinion that
"it will end in tears," saying, "that much I'm sure of." He
further told Fortune in an interview that previous theories of a bubble before
the 1999 and early 2000 dot com crash, and the 2008 financial crisis were also
"very convincing.”
He noted that each time, a “surge in the
market was so relentless” that he would just stop talking about bubbles, as his
clients don't like it. "Clients get pissed off with you repeating the same
thing over and over again and being wrong,” he said, adding that the tone
changes when the bubble bursts. “Generally, when you’re gripped by a bubble,
people just don’t want to listen because they’re making so much money," he
told the publication.
Edwards pointed to two key elements that
would play a major role in the bursting of the bubble. Drawing parallels to the
markets before the dot-com crash, he noted that some things were different
today, which could make the crash much worse. He explained that previous bursts
were triggered by the monetary policies of the Federal Reserve and the hikes in
rates that exposed the market froth. However, this time, Edwards anticipates
that the Fed will move away from "quantitative tightening to quantitative
easing" with rate cuts, which won't trigger a burst. He told Bloomberg
that this policy could lead to a "further meltup," making the
eventual burst more devastating.
“What’s more worrying about the AI bubble
is how much more dependent the economy is on this theme, not just for the
business investments, which is driving growth, but also the fact that
consumption growth is being dominated far more than normal by the top
quintile," Edwards told Fortune.
Edwards told Fortune that the market was
overdue for a correction, and apart from the pandemic, there hasn't been a real
recession since 2008. “That’s a bloody long time, and the business cycle
eventually always goes into recession," he told the publication.
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Grim
retail sales data fuels concerns about health of US economy
Consumer
confidence drops to second-lowest level since pandemic as inflation lingers
25
November 2025
A
series of grim official data released just ahead of Thanksgiving has deepened
concerns about the health of the world’s largest economy, ratcheting up
pressure on President Donald Trump.
Signs
of weakness in retail sales and consumer confidence released on Tuesday suggest
Americans are pulling back on spending amid an affordability crisis that is
causing ructions in Washington.
US
retail sales rose by just 0.2 per cent in September to $733.3bn, according to
the US Census Bureau, missing Wall Street expectations and slowing sharply
after months of acceleration.
The
Conference Board’s index of consumer confidence dropped to 88.7 in November
from 95.5 the previous month. It was the second-lowest reading in five years,
behind the level hit in April when Trump launched
a global trade war.
“American
consumers seem to be losing faith in the economy’s resilience, which could turn
into a self-fulfilling prophecy that drags down growth,” said Eswar Prasad, an
economist at Cornell University.
“Rising
prices, coupled with concerns about employment prospects and housing
affordability, are clearly taking a toll on the confidence of households and
their willingness to spend freely.”
Cost of living strains have hit those on lower incomes
across the country as housing, grocery and healthcare prices rise, widening the
wealth gap as richer Americans benefit from a stock market boom.
Inflation
data released on Tuesday pointed to more pain as US wholesale prices — a
forerunner of consumer prices — rose more than expected to 2.7 per cent in the
12 months to September.
The
president, whose polling numbers have slipped over his handling of the economy,
on Tuesday doubled down on claims that prices were falling despite data
suggesting the contrary.
----While
consumer inflation sits at about 3 per cent, well below its 2022 peak of more
than 9 per cent, the cumulative price build-up of the past five years has taken
its toll on many Americans. It comes as wage growth for lower-income workers
has slowed and the labour market has cooled sharply.
Tuesday’s
poor economic reports come on the back of signs of increasing weakness in the
labour market. Unemployment hit a four-year high of 4.4 per cent in September,
while hiring has been weak for much of the year.
Some
economists have suggested Trump’s tariffs on imports are beginning to show up
in consumer prices.
More
Grim retail sales
data fuels concerns about health of US economy
Feds to Release Delayed Economic Growth Estimate Right Before
Christmas
U.S. stats agencies are
catching up on third-quarter GDP, other data after shutdown
Updated Nov. 24, 2025
8:56 pm ET
The
federal government plans to release a shutdown-delayed estimate for third
quarter economic growth just before Christmas.
The
Commerce Department said Monday it will publish its initial estimate of
third-quarter gross domestic product on Dec. 23, nearly two months after a
first look at the data was initially scheduled. Government statistical agencies
are broadly playing catch-up after the shutdown ran from Oct. 1 into
mid-November, delaying a bevy of reports economists and policymakers rely on to
measure the health of the economy.
In
some cases the government has said it can’t completely fill in the blanks—the
Labor Department, for example, has said that some figures, such as October’s
unemployment rate and much of that month’s consumer-inflation data, can’t be
compiled retroactively.
The
Bureau of Economic Analysis—part of the Commerce Department—won’t release
third-quarter GDP in the typical string of three sequential estimates. Instead,
the agency will release just two third-quarter GDP estimates, including the
update scheduled for just before Christmas and a final one that hasn’t been
calendared yet. The report will offer a picture of economic growth between July
and the end of September, just before the shutdown began.
After
contracting in the first quarter, GDP rose at an annualized rate of 3.8% in
the three months through June, the government has reported—a swing caused
partly by trade patterns that shifted around President Trump’s tariff
announcements. Most economists expect more solid growth in the third quarter,
fueled in part by resilient consumer spending and a flood of investment into
artificial intelligence and related infrastructure.
Also
on Monday, the government assigned a new release date for its report on
September personal income and spending, which was skipped Oct. 31 as the
shutdown continued. The report also includes the personal-consumption
expenditures price index—the Fed’s preferred inflation metric—and now is
expected to be published Dec. 5.
Feds to Release Delayed Economic Growth Estimate Right Before Christmas - WSJ
Covid-19
Corner
This
section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Cork converted
into graphene using a laser to create toxin sensors
24 November 2025
Brazilian researchers built a sensor
from cork that uses a laser to spot sodium nitrite in common drinks. It can
detect amounts as low as around 1 milligram per liter, which is about one fifth
of the U.S. allowable standard.
The team at the Federal University of
São Carlos (UFSC) in São Paulo turned thin cork pieces into conductive carbon
and then measured tiny electrical signals to flag nitrite. The approach aims
for quick screening of mineral water, orange juice, and wine.
Why a nitrite sensor is needed
The work was led by Bruno Campos
Janegitz, head of the Laboratory of Sensors, Nanomedicine, and Nanostructured
Materials. His research focuses on electrochemical sensors for food safety, and
low cost materials.
Sodium nitrite can react with amines to
form nitrosamines, chemicals that can cause cancer in animals and people.
Several nitrosamines are recognized as reasonably anticipated human carcinogens.
“This risk motivated us to develop a
simple, fast, and accessible way to detect the compound and ensure the quality
and safety of liquid consumption,” said Janegitz.
Food makers use nitrite to preserve
meats and to keep cured products a stable pink color, but beverages are not
supposed to rely on nitrite for that purpose.
----How the nitrite sensor performs
In tests on water, orange juice, and wine, the team
reported a strong, stable response. The sensor showed a linear range from 300
to 1000 micromoles per liter and a limit of detection of 14.4 micromoles per
liter.
That detection limit is roughly 1
milligram per liter as sodium nitrite. The number sits well below what routine
water systems are allowed to deliver.
The device’s accuracy on spiked drinks
ranged from 86.1 percent to 110.8 percent. The wide spread reflects how real
beverages can shift readings.
The readout relies on electrochemical oxidation, an electron loss reaction that is tracked as
current, which rises when nitrite is present. The more current, the higher the
nitrite level.
What the measurements mean
For tap water safety, the U.S. cap for
nitrite is 1 milligram per liter when counted as nitrogen, which equals about 5 milligrams per
liter as sodium nitrite. The sensor’s threshold sits well below that, which is
useful for early warning.
For juice and wine, the main interest is
quality control. Producers and inspectors want a quick check so they can run
without a full lab.
The build also keeps costs in mind. Cork
is light, cheap, and renewable, and lasers can mark many pieces in one batch.
From lab bench toward the field
Today the device is at the validation
stage with tests of accuracy being made outside ideal lab settings. The group
is refining the patterning and the protective coating so the readout stays
steady across different drinks.
The prototype uses a small salt solution
as the electrolyte – a liquid that carries charge between electrodes – to make measurements reliable.
Sample prep remains simple, which helps outside a central lab.
As with any fresh tool, matrix effects –
sample ingredients that alter signals – can cause bias or noise. The recovery
testing on wine and orange juice begins to address that concern.
If handheld electronics are added, a
user could place a drop on the treated cork, wait briefly, and read a number on
a small screen. That makes spot checks possible at bottling lines or tasting
rooms.
More
Scientists build a sensor from cork to test nitrite levels in beverages -
Earth.com
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)#
If you want a thing done well, do it yourself.
Napoleon Bonaparte
No comments:
Post a Comment