London Irvine Report: Special Update 22/11/2025 Stocks In Turmoil. A Bleak Christmas?

Baltic Dry Index. 2275 +05 Brent Crude 62.56

Spot Gold 4063 U S 2 Year Yield 3.51 -0.04

US Federal Debt. 38.225 trillion

US GDP 30.591 trillion

This is the way things are, and the Game has been so successful that, like everything, it will get more and more successful until it stops being successful.

George Goodman, aka Adam Smith, The Money Game. 1968.

In the global stock casinos, chaos and confusion. Has the AI bubble ended or is this merely another pause?

But in whipsaw trading markets, few punters make money, most just pile up losses.

A key week is coming up next week.

Dow closes about 500 points higher in big market rebound after steep sell-off this week

Updated Fri, Nov 21 20254:17 PM EST

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rebounded on Friday after New York Federal Reserve President John Williams suggested the central bank could cut interest rates yet again this year.

The blue-chip index gained 493.15 points, or 1.08%, to close at 46,245.41. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.88% to settle at 22,273.08, while the S&P 500 finished 0.98% higher at 6,602.99.

“I view monetary policy as being modestly restrictive, although somewhat less so than before our recent actions,” Williams said in remarks for a speech in Santiago, Chile. “Therefore, I still see room for a further adjustment in the near term to the target range for the federal funds rate to move the stance of policy closer to the range of neutral, thereby maintaining the balance between the achievement of our two goals.”

The comments by a notable Fed member like Williams signaled to investors that central bank leadership is likely to lower its benchmark overnight borrowing rate at its upcoming December meeting. This led traders to raise bets that the Fed would, in fact, cut next month for the third time in 2025.

Fed funds futures are currently pricing in a more than 70% chance of a quarter percentage point cut, a spike from the less than 40% likelihood priced in the day before, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Stocks that could benefit the most from lower rates, which may spur consumer spending, led the market comeback. These included Home Depot, Starbucks and McDonald’s. Investors hope easier monetary policy can revive a sluggish economy and justify historically high tech-stock valuations.

“We think there definitely should be a cut,” Jay Hatfield, Infrastructure Capital Advisors founder and CEO, said in an interview with CNBC. “It’s going to depend on the next … employment report. It would have to be pretty weak, I think, to convince people to cut.”

Wall Street is coming off a brutal market reversal in the last session. The Dow at one point on Thursday rose more than 700 points as investors cheered a blockbuster Nvidia fiscal third-quarter earnings report. The benchmark, along with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite, ended the day sharply lower as the Nvidia rally fizzled and worries grew that the Fed would stand pat in December on rates. The AI darling finished with a more than 3% decline.

Even with Friday’s moves, the three major averages still posted big losses this week. The S&P 500 finished down about 2% week to date, as did the 30-stock Dow. The Nasdaq shed 2.7% in the period.

When speaking about the recent pressure, Hatfield believes that “this is a normal, seasonal, post-earnings valuation pullback,” adding that “the bubbles portion of the market [is] getting annihilated.”

That includes bitcoin, which dropped more than 2% Friday, putting its week-to-date losses at nearly 11%. The cryptocurrency has fallen to levels not seen since April as investors have pulled back on their risk-taking in the market.

“The only real question is, ‘Where do we bottom out at?’” Hatfield said about the broader market.

Stock market news for Nov. 21, 2025

Tech stocks wrap big losing week as AI names get rocked after Nvidia earnings

Published Fri, Nov 21 2025 12:36 PM EST Updated Fri, Nov 21 2025 6:11 PM EST

Even Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang couldn’t save the tech and artificial intelligence trade this week.

The chip giant’s talismanic leader trumpeted “off the charts” chip sales and dismissed talk of an “AI bubble,” and for a while, the tide lifted all boats.

“There’s been a lot of talk about an AI bubble,” Huang said during an earnings call this week. “From our vantage point, we see something very different.”

The buzz from the blowout report quickly reversed, sending the AI winners deeply into the red — and few beneficiaries were left unscathed.

Every member of the Magnificent 7, except for Alphabet, posted a losing week, with Nvidia, Amazon and Microsoft staring down the biggest losses.

Amazon and Microsoft led the group’s drop lower, falling 6% and 7% this week, respectively. Meanwhile, Alphabet gained 8%. The search giant is also the only megacap of the group on pace for November gains thanks to a boost from the launch of Gemini 3.

Oracle, which is another major Nvidia customer, slumped about 11%. The chipmaker also supplies major model developers such as OpenAI and Anthropic.

Chip stocks have also declined amid the broader tech market turmoil. Advanced Micro Devices and Micron slumped more than 16% each, while Marvell Technology dropped 10%. Quantum computing stocks IonQ and D-Wave fell more than 11% and 13%, respectively.

CoreWeave, which buys and rents out Nvidia’s chips in data centers, initially soared on the chipmaker’s earnings report, but swiftly reversed course. The company’s stock took a 7% blow this week.

AI fever was cooling in the runup to Nvidia’s earnings report on Wednesday, and investors looked to the print to alleviate fears that the AI bubble was on shaky ground. Since the launch of ChatGPT in late 2022, the stock has helped power the market to new all-time highs.

But concerns have mounted in recent weeks as tech stocks hit stretched valuations.

Major investors, including Bridgewater’s Ray Dalio told CNBC Thursday that the market is definitely in a bubble.

AI, tech stocks wrap big losing week after Nvidia earnings

Away from whiplash in the US stock casinos, the real US economy is buckling.

‘Anxious’ shoppers keep scaling back and hunting for deals, retailers say

November 21, 2025

As economists continue to seek clarity on how Americans are faring after the federal government shutdown paused data collection, the country’s largest retailers offered a window this week into the consumer mood in the lead-up to the most crucial spending season of the year.

Target, Walmart, Home Depot, Lowe’s and TJX — the parent company of TJ Maxx, Marshalls and HomeGoods — all described a cautious consumer, with tariffs, political tensions, still-high interest rates, an uncertain job market and the rising cost of essentials bogging down their outlook on the economy. But they continue to spend as the holiday season approaches, stretching their budgets to afford groceries and essentials and willing to splurge if the deal is right and the product is new and on-trend.

Analysts also had a caveat: The future could get murkier after the holidays as more tariff-induced price increases are likely to be passed on to consumers.

Consumers are “stable on the necessities but hesitant on big spending,” said Bryan Hayes, an analyst at Zacks Investment Research. “This cautionary theme of spending will certainly linger into early next year and likely midway through.”

‘Anxious’ shoppers keep scaling back and hunting for deals, retailers say

Consumer Sentiment Fell in November, Michigan Survey Shows

The survey’s headline index dropped to 51, hovering near one of the lowest levels in the monthly poll’s history

Nov. 21, 2025 10:25 am ET

Consumer sentiment slid in November compared with last month, the University of Michigan’s monthly survey found.

The survey’s headline index dropped to 51, hovering near one of the lowest levels in the monthly poll’s history. That final reading was up a hair from the preliminary November figure, 50.3, published two weeks ago, but down from 53.6 recorded in October. It was in line with the number that economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had forecast.

Consumers, who have faced above-trend inflation for nearly half a decade, remain frustrated with high and rising prices, survey director Joanne Hsu said. Through the first part of November, they also were contending with a record-long government shutdown, which disrupted food aid, air travel and many federal workers’ paychecks.

Economic concerns also extended to the job market, which logged a rise in unemployment to 4.4% in September despite net job creation of 119,000. Federal stats agencies are still catching up on releasing more-recent numbers as work resumes after the shutdown.

Looking at the trend since the spring, many economists now estimate that employers are adding roughly just enough new roles to keep joblessness in check—a significant cooldown from the jobseeker’s market that prevailed earlier in the decade. Long, frustrating job searches and headlines about large-scale corporate layoffs are coloring views of a labor market far harder to navigate than it was a couple years ago.

Recent consumer surveys have portrayed a fault line in Americans’ sentiment: Those with large stock portfolios are feeling far more positive than people with fewer holdings, because a roaring market has fueled significant gains for investors.

But even those good feelings could face a test amid a rough November on Wall Street. The S&P 500 is down about 5% from a recent late-October high, creaking under anxiety about whether massive investments in artificial intelligence will pay off for the economy.

Consumer Sentiment Fell in November, Michigan Survey Shows - WSJ

In other news.

Nvidia sent a strong signal on AI infrastructure — but is it a bubble barometer?

Published Thu, Nov 20 2025 3:50 AM EST Updated Thu, Nov 20 2025 4:49 AM EST

Nvidia reported strong earnings and forecasts Wednesday, in what analysts saw as a clear signal for continued spending on AI infrastructure. Less clear, however, is whether the results can dispel fears of an AI bubble in markets.

Fears have grown in recent months that massive investment in AI by major tech companies could outpace realistic returns, leading some industry insiders and analysts to predict an AI bubble.

While Nvidia’s earnings are widely viewed as an important gauge of the AI industry’s health, some analysts warn that its performance doesn’t tell the whole story.

“I think a lot of people will be relieved, but they really didn’t need to worry about Nvidia heading [into earnings] anyway,” Gil Luria, head of technology research at D.A. Davidson, told CNBC on Thursday.

The analyst noted that Nvidia’s customers, including Microsoft, Amazon, Google and Meta, had already telegraphed plans to accelerate spending on AI chips, and that was reflected in Nvidia’s results.

This strong demand has also been a boon for Nvidia-related chip stocks, with its key suppliers in Asia trading higher on Thursday.

However, Luria said, “concern about [an AI bubble] isn’t an Nvidia problem. The concern is about companies raising a lot of debt to build data centers.”

Nvidia’s AI chips, also known as graphics processing units, are used in data centers to provide the computing power needed to train and run AI services.

These data centers are often owned by specialized operators and major tech companies like Microsoft and Google, known as hyperscalers. As these companies prepare to meet growing AI demand, they’ve been financing data center roll-out with debt.

“Any concerns about Nvidia were certainly laid to rest [with Nvidia’s earnings], but that doesn’t mean that we don’t need to keep an eye on companies lending or borrowing to build data centers,” Luria said.

The analyst described data centers as inherently speculative investments that could face a reckoning two or three years from now when the world reaches full capacity and the cycle rolls over.

Even so, he added, “Nvidia will keep selling chips one way or another.”

AI chips vs. AI promise

Other analysts who spoke to CNBC drew a clear line in the sand between AI chip companies like Nvidia and downstream players, including hyperscalers and firms actually building AI models like Chat-GPT maker OpenAI.

“Nvidia’s earnings are a strong signal of AI infrastructure spending, but they’re not a reliable gauge of whether AI economics are truly maturing across the industry,” said Billy Toh, regional head of retail research at CGS International Securities Singapore.

“To understand the broader industry’s stability, it’s more meaningful to look at actual adoption and monetization of AI services at companies like Microsoft, Adobe, and other enterprise platforms, where real customer demand and recurring revenue ultimately confirm whether the AI boom is sustainable,” he added.

In addition to concerns about hyperscalers taking on debt, AI developers such as OpenAI posting weak revenue relative to their heavy spending have been a source of unease for some investors.

That lack of revenue for AI companies has not been felt by Nvidia, which dominates advanced chips and chip software and has deep integration across the AI ecosystem, giving it pricing power and profitable demand.

“Even if many AI startups struggle, Nvidia still sells to hyperscalers, sovereign AI initiatives, and enterprises building core infrastructure,” Toh said.

“This dynamic helps justify its trillion-dollar market cap and why investors view it as the safest way to gain exposure to AI,” he said, though that protection will fade as the AI build-out phase slows.

Nvidia sent a strong signal on AI infrastructure — but is it a bubble barometer?

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

With a socialist tax rise budget coming on Wednesday, GB Plc looks headed into recession.

Manufacturing output plummets at fastest pace since pandemic

Thursday 20 November 2025 2:26 pm | Updated: Thursday 20 November 2025 2:27 pm

Manufacturing output in the three months to November dropped at the fastest pace since the pandemic, a new survey has found.

Researchers at the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) said that the balance reading for output volumes across industry was at the lowest level since the quarterly period to August 2020.

The weighted balance reading stood at -30 per cent, compared to -16 per cent in the three months to November.

Output over the next three months is also set to decline at the same pace, the survey also indicated.

The CBI’s industrial trends survey makes for devastating reading across Westminster as the Labour government has made growing the UK economy and turning the country into a “clean energy superpower” were central missions.

The survey is especially bleak for the manufacturing sector given the tax burden is expected to become heavier after next week’s Budget.

CBI analysts also said that total order books and export orders stood well below long-run averages.

Stocks of finished goods were also above “adequate” levels, falling on figures from October. The data may provide extra evidence of firms front-loading investment and production in the first half of the year as owners looked to avoid suffering from tariff hits.

Manufacturing sector ‘needs certainty’

In some more positive news for economists, expectations for average selling price inflation eased in November and stood in line with long-run averages.

Weak growth highlighted in the data, coupled with signs of inflation pressures easing, adds to prospects of the Bank of England voting for an interest rate cut in December.

But CBI economist Ben Jones said the data sends a warning to the Chancellor ahead of a difficult Budget.

Jones said respondents flagged the uncertainty around upcoming fiscal measures as a key reason for a slowdown in purchases and investment.

“Manufacturers face a challenging end to the year,” Jones said.

“With the Budget now just days away, the Chancellor must provide much needed certainty and back the government’s growth mission rhetoric with pro-business policies.”

There is little in the way of Budget rumours that could spark hopes of a rebound for the UK’s manufacturing sector.

Official data in recent months on production levels has been equally weak.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said last week production fell by 0.5 per cent in the third quarter of the year, dropping by as much as two per cent over the course of September alone.

Part of the fall has been attributed to a freeze in production as a result of the cyber attack on Jaguar Land Rover.

But further taxes are likely hamper businesses and depress growth over the coming months, business chiefs have warned.

Manufacturing output plummets at fastest pace since pandemic

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.

Graphene-boosted plastic makes auto parts 20% stronger, 18% lighter

November 18, 2025

Glass-filled polypropylene is already a very commonly used plastic for automotive parts, but could it be improved? Well, yes. A new substance, Gratek, is claimed to make the plastic 20% stronger yet 18% lighter, thanks to the addition of graphene.

Widely hailed as a "wonder material," graphene takes the form of one-atom-thick sheets of carbon atoms linked to one another in a honeycomb pattern. Along with being the world's strongest human-made substance, it's also very flexible, stretchable and chemically stable, plus it exhibits high electrical and thermal conductivity.

It's no wonder, then, that Nello David Sansone – a post-doctoral researcher working in the University of Toronto’s Multifunctional Composites Manufacturing Laboratory – began investigating methods of integrating graphene nanoplatelets into glass-filled polypropylene. He ultimately developed a technique for doing so while working at auto parts manufacturer Axiom Group, in a partnership with the university.

In previous groups' attempts to incorporate graphene into automotive components, the material had a tendency to cluster during processing, thus concentrating mechanical stress in unwanted areas and leading to failure.

Sansone got around this problem via a proprietary technique which causes the nanoplatelets to bond only to the glass fibers within the polypropylene matrix, keeping them from clumping. Because the graphene strengthens the fibers, fewer of them need to be used, thus Gratek is approximately 20% stronger and 18% lighter than regular glass-filled polypropylene.

And it should be noted, the material is less than 1% graphene overall. Plus as an added bonus, due to the lower glass content in the plastic, it causes less wear and tear on the machines that are cutting and drilling it.

One potential limiting factor to Gratek is the fact that, because of the graphene in it, it's limited to being black in color. With that drawback in mind, Sansone has developed another material, Clatek, which utilizes clay-based halloysite nanotubes in place of the graphene nanoplatelets. It reportedly offers performance similar to that of Gratek, but it's white in color and can be dyed and painted.

Gratek is expected to be contracted to a major automobile manufacturer before the end of this year, while Clatek is expected to be commercially available within two years.

"It has shown real potential to make vehicles lighter, safer, and more sustainable," Sansone told us. "As for what’s next for me, I’m now working on commercializing another advanced material formulation, known as AegisX, through my start-up NanoMorphix, where we’re developing transparent and textile armor for military, defense, aerospace, and personal protection."

Sansone was recently the recipient of an award from Mitacs, a government-funded non-profit organization that seeks to foster technical innovation in Canada. Past recipients have developed technologies such as a towable crop-waste-to-biofuel converter, a computer-vision-based flight recorder, an augmented reality feedback system for athletes and a screw-drive amphibious robot.

Sources: Mitacs, Axiom Group

Graphene plastic makes car parts stronger and lighter

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

Exponent Calculator

Enter values into any two of the input fields to solve for the third.

Exponent Calculator

This weekend’s music diversion. Approx. 10 minutes.

Vivaldi. Oboe Concerto a minor RV461 - (Masmano)

Vivaldi. Oboe Concerto a minor RV461 - (Masmano) - YouTube

Next, forgotten British history, the world’s first modern computer. Approx. 9 minutes.

Colossus & Bletchley Park – Computerphile