Baltic
Dry Index. 2401 +92
Brent Crude 62.80
Spot Gold 4182 US 2 Year Yield 3.4 +0.02
US Federal Debt. 38.335 trillion
US GDP 31.602 trillion.
“Other inflationists realize very well that an increase in the
quantity of money reduces the purchasing power of the monetary unit. But they
endeavour to secure inflation none-the-less, because of its effect on the value
of money; they want depreciation, because they want to favour debtors at the
expense of creditors and because they want to encourage exportation and make
importation difficult.”
Ludwig von Mises, The Theory of Money and Credit.
In a thin
holiday shortened, stock casino, month-end trading week, it’s time to dress up
stocks once again, but both the FED and ECB central banks seem to be selling a
different scary message. Why and why now?
India stocks hit record highs as Asia markets
track Wall Street gains on tech rebound
Published Wed, Nov 26 2025 6:50 PM EST
India’s benchmark indexes hit a record
high Thursday as Asia-Pacific markets tracked Wall Street gains on Fed rate-cut
hopes and tech rebound.
The Nifty 50 hit 26,284.2, while
the BSE Sensex reached 86,026.18. Both the indexes had last hit record highs in
September 2024.
Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 index rose 1.42%,
led by tech stocks, while the Topix index added 0.64%. Among the top movers
were Advantest, which
jumped as much as 5%, tech conglomerate SoftBank, which soared more than
5%, and Tokyo Electron,
which was up 2.09%.
South Korea’s Kospi advanced 1.05%, while
the small-cap Kosdaq climbed 0.39%. The Bank of Korea kept its benchmark
interest rate unchanged at 2.5% — in line with expectations — for a fourth
consecutive policy meeting, amid a weakened local currency and overheated
housing market. The Korean won has weakened against the greenback in recent
months to its lowest level since April.
Australia’s ASX/S&P 200 rose 0.42%.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index was up 0.12%
at the open, and the mainland CSI 300 was flat.
China’s industrial profits in October
plunged 5.5% from a year earlier, government data showed Thursday. Profits for the first 10
months of the year rose 1.9% year on year, compared to the 3.2% rise in the
January to September period.
Overnight, the key indexes in the U.S.
logged four straight days of gains on rising hopes for a Federal Reserve
interest rate cut in December. Investors see an 85% chance of a
quarter-percentage-point rate cut in December, up from 30% last week, according
to the CME FedWatch tool.
Shares of artificial intelligence
player Oracle jumped
more than 4% on Wednesday, boosting major averages after Deutsche Bank reaffirmed
its bullish stance on the name.
On Wednesday stateside, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained
314.67 points, or 0.67%, to finish at 47,427.12. The S&P 500 climbed 0.69% to
settle at 6,812.61, while the Nasdaq
Composite increased 0.82% to close at 23,214.69.
Asia-Pacific
markets: Nikkei 225, Hang Seng Index, CSI 300
Wall Street Does U-Turn on December Rate Cut
November 26, 2025 at 10:46 PM GMT
Well that didn’t take long. A week ago
many on Wall Street were closing the books on 2025 rate cuts by the Federal
Reserve, citing the unprecedented lack of economic data coming out of the US
government and general uncertainty. Now a few economists over at JPMorgan are
predicting the central bank will
cut rates next month after all.
Wall Street’s largest bank had previously
said investors would have to wait for the New Year. JPMorgan’s refreshed
view aligns with the market perspective of swaps traders, who are presently
pricing a roughly 80% chance that the Fed will ease policy by a quarter-point
next week. That’s up from less than 30% a week ago. —David
E. Rovella
Wall
Street Does U-Turn on December Rate Cut: Bloomberg Evening Briefing - Bloomberg
Euro zone banks should prepare for risk of dollar
squeeze, ECB says
26 November 2025
FRANKFURT (Reuters) -Euro zone lenders
with big dollar businesses should bulk up their liquidity and capital cushions
to withstand any squeeze in a U.S. currency made more volatile by President
Donald Trump's actions, the European Central Bank said on Wednesday.
The ECB has been telling banks to watch
their dollar exposure since Trump's tariffs and his pressure on the Federal
Reserve rattled confidence in the world’s reserve currency in the spring.
In the ECB's latest Financial Stability
Review, the message sharpened: the handful of large euro zone banks active in
dollars need to prepare.
"Capital headroom could be needed to
absorb ... higher currency volatility and counterparty credit risk," the
ECB said in the twice-yearly report. "Banks should hold liquid U.S. dollar
assets to counterbalance outflows and act as a stabilising intermediary."
The FSR, compiled by the ECB’s financial
stability experts, does not amount to binding recommendations for the banks
under its supervision. However, it underscores the depth of policymakers'
concern over dollar liquidity.
"Dollar outflows in an extreme
scenario could exhaust their capacity to raise cash through repos, FX swaps and
the sale of such assets," the ECB said, without spelling out what one such
scenario would look like.
One nightmare scenario — not spelled out
in the review — would be the Fed shutting its emergency liquidity line to the
ECB, removing a backstop banks have relied on since the financial crisis.
ECB VP PLAYS DOWN RISK
Sources have told Reuters some central
bank officials had even been thinking about pooling dollar and gold reserves
outside of the United States to prepare for such risk.
ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos played
down this risk, emphasising that those swap lines are key to keeping markets
calm both in the United States and Europe.
"We do not have any sort of
information with respect to the modification of the present situation, with
respect to swap lines," he told a press conference as he presented the
FSR.
"These bilateral swap lines between
the Federal Reserve and the ECB are very important factors to keep financial
stability in place on both sides of the Atlantic."
New York Fed President John Williams also
said earlier this month the swap lines were good for both the United States and
its counterparts.
The ECB said dollar operations are
concentrated among the bloc’s global heavyweights. These are BNP Paribas,
Deutsche Bank, Credit Agricole, Groupe BPCE and ING, Banco Santander and
Societe Generale.
The business typically includes borrowing
on U.S. money markets to finance hedge funds or selling foreign exchange (FX)
swaps to insurers, funds and corporates hedging their dollar exposure.
To offset their own currency risk, these
banks often take the opposite side with global lenders via swaps that rarely
show up on balance sheets.
"Rolling over these positions can
become challenging during periods of stress in FX swap markets," the ECB
said.
For now the ECB sees only a
"limited" mismatch between dollar assets and liabilities, with some
banks using repurchase agreements (repos) to align maturities. But it warned
these strategies "do not fully eliminate liquidity risk".
Euro zone banks held 681 billion euros
($788.53 billion) in dollar securities and lent the equivalent of 712 billion
euros in the U.S. currency as of the end of last year, ECB data shows.
Euro zone banks should
prepare for risk of dollar squeeze, ECB says
In other news, is the era of AI layoffs
starting?
HP Layoffs: Company to cut 10% of its staff
amounting to 6000 employees globally
HP says the initiative is expected to
generate $1 billion in savings over three years.
November 26, 2025 06:17 IST
HP Inc. announced on Tuesday that it plans
to slash 4,000 to 6,000 jobs worldwide by fiscal 2028, Reuters reported. The
move is part of the company’s effort to streamline operations, adopt artificial
intelligence,
increase product development, improve customer service, and boost productivity.
The announcement comes just a day after
Apple revealed job cuts across its sales team. The iPhone maker did not specify
the exact number of jobs affected, but several major positions were eliminated.
HP plans global job cuts to boost AI and
productivity
HP CEO Enrique
Lores said
the job reductions will affect teams working in product development, internal
operations, and customer support. He added, “We expect this initiative will
create $1 billion in gross run rate savings over three years.” HP had
previously laid off 1,000 to 2,000 employees in February under another
restructuring plan.
“We are taking a prudent approach to our
guide for the second half, while at the same time implementing aggressive
actions like qualifying lower cost suppliers, reducing memory configurations
and taking price actions,” Lores said, according to Reuters.
HP Inc. had around 58,000 employees as of
the fiscal year ending October 31, 2024. This means the planned layoffs could
affect roughly 10–12% of its workforce.
According to Reuters, for fiscal 2026, HP
expects adjusted profit per share to be $2.90 to $3.20, which is slighlty below
analysts’ average estimate of $3.33. For the first quarter, HP expects profit
per share between 73 cents and 81 cents, with the midpoint briefly below the 79
cents estimate. In the fourth quarter, HP reported $14.64 billion in revenue,
which beat analysts’ expectations of $14.48 billion.
Rising demand for AI-enabled PCs
The company said that demand for
AI-enabled PCs continues to see a surge. In the fourth quarter ending October
31, over 30% of HP’s shipments were AI-enabled devices.
HP and other tech companies like Dell and
Acer could
face higher costs because memory chip prices are rising. The change is caused
by strong demand from data centres and competition in the server market. There
are two main types of chips affected: dynamic random access memory (DRAM) and
NAND memory.
Lores said HP expects these higher prices
to affect the second half of fiscal 2026. However, the company has enough
inventory to manage the first half.
Tech layoffs on the rise
In 2025, tech layoffs have seen a dramatic
rise, with major companies like Amazon, Microsoft, and Google reducing staff
amid economic uncertainty and AI-driven restructuring. By data,
Amazon plans to cut up to 30,000 jobs,
mostly affecting corporate, HR, operations, devices, and AWS teams. The move is
part of a broader plan to cut costs and invest in AI.
Microsoft has fired
around 6,000 employees, about 3% of its workforce, across multiple business
units and international offices, including LinkedIn.
Google has also gone through several
rounds of layoffs, mostly targeting US-based teams, cutting more than 100 roles
in its design and cloud divisions. Overall, the tech sector has seen more than
1 lakh layoffs this year.
China industrial profits drop 5.5% in October,
worst performance in five months
Published Wed, Nov 26 2025 8:56 PM EST
Chinese industrial firms saw their
earnings take a hit in October as trade tensions with the U.S. flared that
month while broader growth momentum in the economy faltered.
Industrial profits dropped 5.5% from a year earlier in October, the
biggest decline since June, the National Bureau of Statistics data showed, reversing the
double-digit growth seen in August and September.
For the first ten months of the year,
profits at major industrial firms grew 1.9% from a year ago, the official data
showed, decelerating from a 3.2%
rise in the January to September period.
Trade tensions between China and the U.S.
had escalated that month over export controls, with U.S. President Donald Trump
threatening additional 100% tariffs on imports from China, before the two
economic superpowers reached
a deal in South Korea at the month’s end.
The mining sector saw profits plunge 27.8%
in the January to October period, while profits for the manufacturing and
utilities sectors, comprising suppliers for electricity, heat, fuel and water,
rose 7.7% and 9.5% respectively.
Profits for carmakers gained 4.4% in the
first ten months of the year, compared to a 3.4% climb in the first nine months.
Profits at state-owned enterprises were
flat, compared with gains of 3.5% for industrial firms with foreign investment,
including those with investment from Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan, and 1.9% for
private companies.
Yu Weining, chief statistician at NBS,
attributed the drop in October to high-base effects from last year and rapid expansion
in corporate spending.
China’s manufacturing activity contracted
more than expected in October, with the official manufacturing
purchasing managers’ index slumping to a six-month low of 49.0. A reading above
the 50 benchmark indicates growth, while one below that suggests contraction.
Tepid consumer demand
While manufacturers found some relief from
the trade
pact struck between Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping that reduced
tariffs on Chinese products, weak domestic demand and uncertainties in global
trade continue to cast a shadow over the trade outlook.
China this month has signaled that it will
ban all Japanese
seafood imports amid a diplomatic feud over Taiwan.
China’s consumer prices unexpectedly
returned to growth in October, rising 0.2% from a year ago, after staying
in negative territory for most of the year. Core inflation, stripping out food
and energy prices, jumped 1.2%, the highest since February 2024.
More
China
industrial profits drop 5.5% in October, worst level in five months
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Today,
is the Fed trying to cover itself by painting its record? Why? What does the
Fed and ECB know that we don’t?
Global Recession Panic: Fed Official
Warns Of 'Eye-Popping' Redundancies As Stocks Plunge
Federal Reserve warns of
'eye-popping' job losses. Global recession imminent as fragile markets
collapse.
Published 11/24/25 AT 5:41 PM EST
The financial world is
currently gripped by a wave of alarm following a stark warning from a
high-ranking Federal Reserve official, who has chillingly forecasted
'eye-popping' job losses on the horizon.
This singular, anonymised
prediction has ignited fear of a looming economic downturn, coinciding with
significant warning signals already flashing across financial markets globally.
As major equity indices
tumble across the board, investors, corporate strategists, and analysts are
rapidly accelerating their preparations for a severe Global Recession scenario.
This economic panic has
seen stock markets plunge across the U.S., Europe, and Asia, driven by a
dramatic decline in risk-asset sentiment.
The Looming Global
Recession: Why The Fed's Job Loss Warning is Different
At the epicentre of the
financial alarm is a forecast from a Federal Reserve official, who, despite
remaining unnamed in public comments, issued a stark warning that if the
economy's current momentum collapses, redundancies will surge in numbers not
seen in recent cycles.
This anonymous official's
projection of 'eye-popping' job losses could, in turn, trigger a dangerous
self-reinforcing downturn.
This cycle functions
predictably: as job losses reduce household incomes, consumption is
subsequently depressed, which ultimately drags down corporate revenues, thereby
prompting even more layoffs across the workforce.
With stock markets already
facing immense pressure, the risk of this vicious cycle initiating a full-scale
recession upon the working sector is now critical.
The current landscape of
the labour market is already shifting dramatically. Several major companies are
moving away from aggressive hiring strategies towards proactive cost-cutting
measures.
Large firms have started to
trim non-essential positions, delay expansion plans, and pause non-critical
hiring.
Should the Federal Reserve
official's grim warning prove accurate, sectors that relied heavily on high
growth previously could be among the hardest hit.
Specifically, technology,
consumer discretionary services, and financial services are recognised as
particularly vulnerable.
A Synchronised Global
Recession: The Compounding Factors Driving Market Panic
The truly worrying aspect
of this economic forecast is the synchronised nature of the potential downturn.
Beyond public equity markets, developed and emerging economies worldwide are
displaying tangible signs of strain.
A convergence of currency
pressures, weakness in commodity prices, and poor manufacturing data leads to
the possible conclusion that this recession could be synchronised globally,
unlike previous downturns which were more geographically concentrated and manageable.
This synchronisation is
taking centre stage now due to a dangerous alignment of multiple global
factors. Central banks across the world have pushed interest rates to
unbelievable highs in an effort to combat persistent inflation.
This aggressive tightening
is now hurting consumer spending and corporate borrowing dramatically.
Simultaneously,
supply-chain disruptions and geopolitical tensions remain significantly
elevated. This combined pressure leaves little comfort for corporate profits
and severely reduces economic resilience.
Experts warn that the
ability of the economy to absorb any further shock is significantly weaker now
than it was in past cycles, fueling discussions among financial commentators
about a potential 'chaos scenario.'
Overall, the Federal
Reserve official's message should be interpreted as a flashing red light and a
crucial call to action.
Global Recession Panic: Fed Official Warns Of
'Eye-Popping' Redundancies As Stocks Plunge | IBTimes
Covid-19
Corner
This
section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Godfather of AI Predicts Total Breakdown of Society
Tech
billionaires "are really betting on AI replacing a lot of workers."
By Frank Landymore Published Nov 25, 2025 11:19 AM EST
Geoffrey Hinton, one of the three
so-called “godfathers” of AI, never misses an opportunity to issue foreboding
proclamations about the tech he helped create.
During an hour-long public conversation with
Senator Bernie Sanders at Georgetown University last week, the British computer
science laid out all the alarming ways that he forecasts AI will completely
upend society for the worst, seemingly leaving little room for human
contrivances like optimism. One of the reasons why is that AI’s rapid
deployment will be completely unlike technological revolutions in the past,
which created new classes of jobs, he said.
“The people who lose their jobs won’t
have other jobs to go to,” Hinton said, as quoted by Business Insider. “If AI gets as smart as people — or smarter — any
job they might do can be done by AI.”
“These guys are really betting on AI
replacing a lot of workers,” Hinton added.
Hinton pioneered the deep learning
techniques that are foundational to the generative AI models fueling the AI
boom today. His work on neural networks earned him a Turing Award in 2018,
alongside University of Montreal researcher Yoshua Bengio and the former chief
AI scientist at Meta Yann LeCun. The trio are considered to be the
“godfathers” of AI.
All three scientists have been outspoken
about the tech’s risks, to varying degrees. But it was Hinton who first began
to turn the most heads when he said he regretted his life’s work after stepping down from his role at Google in 2023.
He hasn’t changed his tune since then.
He has consistently warned that AI will destroy jobs and create massive unemployment. This month, Hinton then injected more fatalism
into this prediction by opining that the AI industry couldn’t turn a profit without replacing human labor.
In his discussion with Sanders, Hinton
reiterated these risks, adding that the multibillionaires spearheading AI, like
Elon Musk, Mark Zuckerberg, and Larry Ellison haven’t really “thought through”
the fact that “if the workers don’t get paid, there’s nobody to buy their
products,” he said, per BI.
More
Godfather of AI Predicts Total Breakdown of Society
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt Clocks
(usdebtclock.org)
“Depreciation of money can benefit debtors only when it is
unforeseen. If inflationary measures and a reduction of the value of money are
expected, then those who lend money will demand higher interest in order to
compensate their probable loss of capital, and those who seek loans will be
prepared to pay the higher interest because they have a prospect of gaining on
capital account.”
Ludwig von Mises, The Theory of Money and Credit.
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