Baltic
Dry Index. 2295 +20 Brent Crude 63.05
Spot Gold 4146 US 2 Year Yield 3.46 -0.05
US Federal Debt. 38.327 trillion
US GDP 31.598 trillion.
"I was alarmed at my doctor's report: He said I was a sound as a dollar.
Ronald Reagan
In a thin holiday shortened trading week in the US stock casinos, it’s relatively easy to dress up stocks higher.
But in the real US economy, more and more signs of rising distress.
In the stagnant UK economy, one day out from socialist, neo-communist, tax rise economic shock and awe.
Asia-Pacific markets trade mixed after Wall
Street’s tech stocks rebound
Published Mon, Nov 24 2025 6:43 PM EST
Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed Tuesday,
after Wall Street’s tech stocks rebounded on a rally in Google
parent and hopes of a Fed rate cut.
Optimism about Alphabet’s standing in the
AI race started last week after the tech giant announced its
upgraded AI model, Gemini 3. The stock closed 6.31% higher Monday. Other
AI-related stocks, such as Broadcom and Micron Technology, also popped
higher, building on a wider rebound that started on Friday, when the head of
the New York Federal Reserve left
the door open to a December interest rate cut.
Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 index was up
0.15%, while the Topix index erased earlier gains to fall 0.1%.
AI-related stocks were among the top
gainers on the Nikkei 225, with semiconductor testing equipment supplier Advantest trading 4.8%
higher and chip equipment maker Lasertec adding
1.15%. Tokyo Electron,
which provides essential chipmaking equipment to foundries that manufacture
Nvidia’s chips, gained 3.45%.
South Korea’s Kospi index rose 0.18%%,
while the small-cap Kosdaq reversed course, falling 0.21%. Index
heavyweights SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics also
pared gains, advancing 0.1% and 2.38%, respectively.
Australia’s ASX/S&P 200 added 0.14% in
volatile trading.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose 0.64%,
and the Hang Seng Tech
index advanced 1.22%. The mainland’s CSI 300 extended gains, climbing
1.26%.
India’s Nifty 50 was flat in early
trading, while the BSE Sensex index added 0.13%.
U.S. equity futures were little changed in
early Asian hours.
Overnight, the S&P 500 rose 1.55% to
close at 6,705.12, while the Nasdaq
Composite jumped 2.69% to settle at 22,872.01. It was the tech-heavy
index’s best day since May 12, when it rose 4.35%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed
202.86 points, or 0.44%, to end at 46,448.27.
Asia-Pacific
markets: AI, tech recovery, Nikkei 225, Hang Seng Index
Hope for a Fed Rate Cut Springs Eternal
November 24, 2025 at 11:11 PM GMT
All is forgiven—for now anyway. Technology
stocks that were recently pushed around as investors were mollified, then
unmollified by Nvidia’s rosy outlook were mollified again as traders kicked
off a data-packed few days.
The S&P 500 rose 1.5% and
the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 ended Monday’s session more than 2% higher.
While the former notched its best day in six weeks, the latter gained the most
since May. Bitcoin reversed an
earlier drop and the US 10-year Treasury yield declined to
4.03%.
Perhaps the big motivator was Federal
Reserve Governor Christopher Waller indicating support for
a rate cut next month. New York Fed President John Williams had a similar
impact on the market Friday after he said a near-term rate cut remains
a possibility. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly also
backs lowering rates in December, she said in an interview on Monday.
This is a brighter picture than a week
ago, when many on Wall Street—citing the lack of government data and general
uncertainty—gave up on seeing any more rate cuts this year. —David
E. Rovella
Hope
for a Fed Rate Cut Springs Eternal: Evening Briefing Americas - Bloomberg
In other news.
Julius Baer announces further loan loss allowances
of $184 million
24 November 2025
ZURICH (Reuters) -Julius Baer on Monday
announced further loan loss allowances of 149 million Swiss francs ($184
million) that will be recognised in the financial accounts in November 2025.
The group has now completed its credit
review and decided to manage down a subset of loan book positions, which are
not aligned with its refocused strategy and revised risk appetite framework,
the Swiss bank said.
The conclusion of the review marks the
final phase in addressing legacy credit issues, Julius Baer said.
While the review confirmed the Lombard
loan book and the traditional residential mortgage portfolio are resilient,
Julius Baer decided to manage down a subset of the loan book, primarily in
income-producing residential and commercial real estate, the bank said in a
statement.
"With our clear strategic focus, our
revised risk appetite framework, and overall strengthened risk function and
processes, we are now entirely aligned around our core wealth management
proposition," CEO Stefan Bollinger said.
The group expects that net profit for the
full year 2025 will be less than the one achieved in 2024, Julius Baer said.
Julius Baer
announces further loan loss allowances of $184 million
More Americans are getting their power shut off,
as unpaid bills pile up
November 24, 2025
Misty Pellew’s family lived in the dark
for several days this month.
Pellew’s power was shut off Nov. 13
because of $602 in unpaid bills, the latest in a string of
financial humiliations that began six months ago after her husband lost his
$20-an-hour excavation job in northeastern Pennsylvania. The recent government
shutdown dealt another blow, delaying federal funding for programs that helped
the family pay for food and utilities.
Although Pellew’s lights were temporarily
turned back on last week, they were set to be disconnected again if she didn’t
pay another $102. With an overdrawn bank account, she was bracing to be without
power again. Last time, her family ate peanut butter and jelly sandwiches for
dinner and slept in hoodies and gloves to keep warm.
“I feel so useless and helpless,” the
44-year-old said.
Soaring electricity prices are triggering
a wave of power shutoffs nationwide, leaving more Americans in the dark as
unpaid bills pile up. Although there is no national count of electricity
shutoffs, data from select utilities in 11 states show that disconnections have
risen in at least eight of them since last year, according to figures compiled
by The Washington Post and the National Energy Assistance Directors Association
(NEADA). In some areas, such as New York City, the surge has been dramatic — with
residential shutoffs in August up fivefold from a year ago, utility filings
show.
In Pennsylvania, where Pellew lives, power
shutoffs have risen 21 percent this year, with more than 270,000 households
losing electricity, according to state data through October. The average
electricity bill in the state, meanwhile, has risen 13 percent from a year ago,
as utilities upgrade electric grids to accommodate a burst of new data centers,
according to an analysis of federal data by NEADA, which represents state
directors of energy aid programs for low-income families.
Overall, Americans are paying 11 percent
more for electricity than they were in January, though that number varies
widely: Costs have risen 37 percent in Missouri but have fallen in three states
by as much as 13 percent, NEADA found.
“With prices going up so rapidly,
electricity is becoming unaffordable in many parts of the country,” said Mark
Wolfe, an energy economist and executive director of NEADA. “And it isn’t just
lower-income households anymore; it’s spilling into the middle class.”
More
More Americans are
getting their power shut off, as unpaid bills pile up
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
5
Forces Sinking Stocks: AI Capex, Fed Doubts, Recession Risk
Nov
23, 2025, 07:00am EST
After
the bounce on Friday, the S&P 500 is still 4.1% below the late-October
peak. Even a stellar earnings report from NVIDIA (NVDA) failed to ignite a
rally, as technology stocks fared worse than the broader market during this
downturn. So what’s ailing stocks?
The
proximate cause of the recent weakness can be divided into five primary
drivers:
·
Economic
Jitters,
·
Federal
Reserve Policy,
·
Artificial
Intelligence Spending,
·
Risk
Appetite, and
·
Valuation.
Economic Jitters
While the US government has
reopened, economic releases are still delayed, so there is less visibility than
usual into the strength of the economy. Last week, the delayed September jobs
report was released. While nonfarm payrolls grew by a better-than-expected
119,000, the details were less impressive than the headline figure. Notably,
past months were revised lower, which is typically an indicator of a softening
labor market when it happens consistently, as has been the case recently.
The 4-week average of
initial claims for unemployment benefits shows no signs of rapid deterioration;
instead, it is slowly trending higher.
Continuing claims for
unemployment benefits have continued to climb, reflecting the increasing
difficulty the unemployed face in finding a new job.
One of the less supportive details of the
September jobs report was that the unemployment rate rose to an above-expected
4.4% from 4.3%. While the absolute level of unemployment remains relatively
low, the Sahm Rule, which has a robust track record of predicting recessions,
uses a 0.5 percentage point rise in the three-month average of the unemployment
rate above the lowest level in the past twelve months as a trigger. The
September data took the indicator to 0.23 percentage points above the low,
which is below the level needed to predict a recession but is moving in that
direction.
Taking the whole into account, the US economy
and job market appear to be softening in the fourth quarter, though there are
no signs of extreme deterioration yet.
Looking at how economically
sensitive stocks are trading relative to less sensitive defensive stocks
indicates that stocks are pricing in less optimism about the economy. The
current state could be characterized as a retreat from extremely low odds of recession
being priced into stocks, rather than a warning signal of imminent collapse.
Federal Reserve Policy
The Fed funds futures markets had been pricing
in around a 100% chance of a December rate cut from the Federal Reserve (Fed)
right up until the end of October, when the odds fell sharply, coinciding with
the S&P 500’s decline from its peak. The probability of a December rate cut
fell to 30% after the release of the minutes from the October Fed meeting,
which showed most Fed officials opposed a December easing.
Markets had been counting on an easing of the
restrictive monetary policy to get the US economy through the soft patch and
the drag from tariffs. When that seems less likely, stocks tend to suffer as
more uncertainty needs to be priced into valuations.
The odds of a December cut have moved higher
again, but that is likely connected to stock weakness rather than new
fundamental data. Notably, the delayed October jobs report is scheduled for
December 16, which is after the December 10 Fed meeting, so Fed officials will
need to rely on other indicators in making their monetary policy decision.
Artificial Intelligence Spending
As mentioned earlier, even
blow-out earnings and increased forward guidance from NVIDIA (NVDA) couldn’t
break the market out of its funk. In addition, technology stocks have
underperformed since late October in the sell-off. This market action suggests
that some of the dark cloud emanates from concerns about the massive spending
needed to support the artificial intelligence (AI) boom.
Just looking at the five
companies, Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon.com (AMZN), Meta Platforms (META),
Microsoft (MSFT), and Oracle (ORCL), the forecasted capital expenditures
(capex) are eye-popping at between $350 and $400 billion for 2026. Generally,
investors penalize the valuations of companies embarking on large-scale capex,
as there is always a question about whether the returns to shareholders from
this spending will be sufficient. Further, these technology companies have been
very asset-light, which is usually a much more attractive business model than a
capital-intensive one.
More
5 Forces Sinking Stocks: AI Capex, Fed Doubts,
Recession Risk
Covid-19
Corner
This
section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.
19
States See Growth In COVID-19 Cases As Thanksgiving Nears, CDC Says
November
24, 2025
Families
planning Thanksgiving trips may need to keep an eye not just on the weather,
but on where COVID-19 is starting to climb again.
The
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said on Tuesday, Nov. 18, that
infections are growing or likely growing in 19 states, declining or likely
declining in four states, and not changing in 22 states.
The
trends come from a CDC modeling tool that tracks emergency department visits
tied to COVID to estimate how quickly the virus is spreading in each state.
According
to the latest estimates, infections are increasing or likely to increase in the
following states:
·
Colorado
·
Indiana
·
Iowa
·
Kansas
·
Kentucky
·
Louisiana
·
Massachusetts
·
Michigan
·
Mississippi
·
Missouri
·
Nebraska
·
New
Mexico
·
Oklahoma
·
Pennsylvania
·
South
Carolina
·
South
Dakota
·
Texas
·
Vermont
·
West
Virginia
More
19 States See
Growth In COVID-19 Cases As Thanksgiving Nears, CDC Says
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Today, a timely seasonal warning on
battery fire risk.
Hampshire fire service warns against rise in battery fires
21st November
The Hampshire & Isle of Wight Fire and Rescue Service (HIWFRS)
has issued a warning after a rise in battery fires.
In the period from April 2024 to March
2025, Hampshire Fire say there were 156 battery-related blazes, an increase of
64 from the previous year.
Southampton alone has recorded 24
battery fires since 2022.
Earlier this month, St Mary’s and Eastleigh firefighters responded to a second-floor flat
fire in Southampton involving an electric scooter, which was quickly removed
from the property.
On another day this month, in the early
hours of the morning, Hamble, Hightown and St Mary’s crews were called to a
lithium-ion battery scooter blaze, which spread from an outbuilding to the roof
space of a bungalow.
HIWFRS prevention manager Tracey Webb
said: "At this time of year, we know lots of you across Hampshire and Isle
of Wight will be out searching for the best gifts to give to your loved ones –
we want to ensure those gifts are safe and don’t present a fire risk."
"When buying electrical products
such as phones, tablets, e-scooters and other lithium-ion battery devices, we
ask that you only do so from reputable retailers, ensuring they meet UK Safety
Standards.
"Use the charger your product came
with, don’t overload sockets and never leave them plugged in overnight or
unattended."
Hampshire fire service warns against rise in battery fires | Daily Echo
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt Clocks
(usdebtclock.org)
"In UK politics stupidity is not a handicap."
With apologies to Napoleon
No comments:
Post a Comment