Nvidia Day. Alphabet Warns. Japan Picks A Bad Time To Fight With China.

Baltic Dry Index. 2216 +63         Brent Crude 64.76

Spot Gold  4096             US 2 Year Yield 3.58 -0.02

US Federal Debt. 38.212 trillion

US GDP 31.585 trillion.

"The most puzzling development in politics during the last decade is the apparent determination of Western European leaders to re-create the Soviet Union in Western Europe."

Mikhail Gorbachev

In the stock casinos, it is Nvidia’s big day. Big day to make or break the AI bubble. But Nvidia only reports after the US markets are closed, so a nervous day ahead for most global stock casinos.

High risk gamblers will likely bet on Nvidia rescuing the great AI bubble and so try bottom fishing in tech stocks. More nervous stock gamblers will use ant tech stock rally to sell out.

I think, whatever Nvidia reports, dot con bubble 2.0 AI bubble 1.0 is finished. Too much money has been lost to money heaven. We just don’t know where the losses lie and who’s gone bust but hiding it.

Meanwhile back in the real global economy, from America to Canada, to GB, to Europe, to China and Japan, layoffs and debt delinquencies are rising, consumer confidence and spending is falling, and in GB’s case, we are just one week away from socialist tax rise Wednesday.

Asia-Pacific markets track Wall Street declines as tech-led sell-off deepens

Published Tue, Nov 18 2025 6:38 PM EST

Asia-Pacific markets were fell Wednesday, tracking Wall Street declines as concerns about artificial intelligence valuations continued to pressure tech stocks.

Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 index fell 0.2% in volatile trading, while the Topix index was flat

Technology sector had dragged the Nikkei 225 index sharply lower in early trading, led by semiconductor testing equipment maker Advantest which fell more than 4%, last down 0.88%. Semiconductor firm Renesas was trading 4.4% lower.

South Korea’s Kospi index fell 0.54%, and the small-cap Kosdaq retreated 0.58%. Index heavyweights Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix pared some losses to trade 0.51% and 0.79% lower, respectively.

Australia’s ASX/S&P 200 lost 0.13% in volatile trading.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index was down 0.45%, while the mainland CSI 300 climbed 0.21%. Hong Kong-listed shares of Xiaomi fell more than 4% after the Chinese tech company on Tuesday warned of higher smartphone prices in 2026, on the back of rising costs of memory chips to meet skyrocketing AI demand.

India’s Nifty 50 and Sensex index opened 0.16% and 0.14% lower, respectively.

U.S. equity futures were little changed in early Asian hours after the key indexes fell Tuesday stateside.

Overnight, the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 498.50 points, or 1.07%, to settle at 46,091.74. The S&P 500 lost 0.83% to end the day at 6,617.32. It was the broad-based index’s fourth straight losing session, making for its longest slide since August. The Nasdaq Composite declined 1.21% to finish at 22,432.85.

The session saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average also drop for a fourth consecutive day, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite recorded its fifth negative day in six sessions. 

Bitcoin dropped briefly below $90,000, a sign of reduced risk-taking by investors.

Asia-Pacific markets: AI, Nikkei 225, Hang Seng Index, CSI 300

Stock futures little changed as S&P 500 notches fourth-straight loss, Nvidia earnings loom: Live updates

Updated Wed, Nov 19 2025 7:38 PM EST

Stock futures were little changed on Tuesday night after major U.S. indexes extended their losses, driven again by pressure in tech shares. Investors are now readying for Nvidia’s earnings report to inform the strength of the AI trade.

Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 47 points, or 0.1%. S&P futures were down 0.2%, while Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.3%.

Tuesday’s session saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 notch their fourth consecutive losing days, with the S&P 500 notching its longest slide since August. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite recorded its fifth negative day in six sessions. Bitcoin briefly dropped below $90,000 on Tuesday before recovering, while gold prices rose from a one-week low.

Most sectors in the broader market closed up higher on Tuesday but key tech names once again weighed on stocks, with hot AI stocks such as Nvidia, Palantir, Microsoft and Advanced Micro Devices closing in the red. The Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK) closed 1.6% lower. Technology and consumer discretionary have been the most beaten-down sectors this month, while health care stands out as the best performer.

Weakness in tech comes ahead of Nvidia’s highly awaited third-quarter results due after Wednesday’s market close. Analysts largely expect that Nvidia — the largest company in the broad-market index — will meaningfully beat Wall Street’s expectations and forecast strong sales growth driven by demand for its AI chips and other infrastructure. But Nvidia has a high bar to beat. Investors have taken profits from their tech holdings in recent days, reflecting heightened concerns that the AI boom has run up the valuations of Nvidia and other tech hyperscalers at an unsustainable pace.

Investors are also waiting for earnings reports from major retailers Target, Lowe’s and TJX Companies on Wednesday morning. Results could give investors a stronger picture of how consumer spending is faring, particularly given the lack of economic data in recent weeks due to the U.S. government shutdown.

“Tech has been flying high this year and so volatility is not surprising. ... Volatility amongst tech stocks is also boosted by the fact that there’s a lot of concentration risk, both at the index level and even investor portfolios,” said Sonu Varghese, global macro strategist at Carson Group. “Despite the big gains, investors with concentrated portfolios that are mainly exposed to AI-related stocks remain on edge and susceptible to any pullback. The dynamic is probably made worse as a lot of investors try to diversify at the same time when stocks fall.”

Stock market today: Live updates

European stocks close at one-month low as AI bubble fears mount

Published Tue, Nov 18 2025 1:16 AM EST Updated Tue, Nov 18 2025 11:42 AM EST

LONDON — European bourses ended Tuesday’s session sharply lower as global markets pulled back on renewed concerns over artificial intelligence-linked stocks.

The pan-European Stoxx 600 was provisionally 1.8% lower at the end of trade, after notching its lowest level in a month. All major regional bourses and sectors posted losses.

European equity markets followed their global counterparts into the red after tech losses dragged Wall Street lower on Monday with the three major U.S. indexes closing in negative territory. On Tuesday, New York-listed shares continued their decline, with major averages all trading lower.

Looking at individual stocks, Intermediate Capital Group advanced 4.4% on Tuesday after Amundi said it was taking a near 10% stake in the London-listed global private equity and alternative asset manager. French investment management giant Amundi saw its share price slide 3.6%.

Akzo Nobel fell 2.9% after the Dutch paint and performance coatings maker announced a merger with Philadelphia-headquartered Axalta Coating Systems.

Swiss drugmaker Roche, meanwhile, gained 6.8% after reporting positive results from the Phase III trials of its new breast cancer pill. Separately, Novo Nordisk was down 2.5% after the Danish drugmaker said it would bring forward a plan to cut the monthly price of its obesity shot Wegovy in the U.S. from $499 to $349. The price reduction had been scheduled to begin in January under an earlier agreement with U.S. President Donald Trump.

AI concerns

Investors stateside are awaiting delayed jobs data this week as well as Nvidia’s latest earnings report, due Wednesday. The chipmaker, whose stock fell 2% on Tuesday, has been at the center of a debate about the strength of the artificial intelligence-powered market rally this year.

Concerns have grown about weak market breadth, pricey tech valuations and the soundness of AI fundamentals due to a boom in Big Tech debt offerings and the pace of AI chip depreciation.

European markets Nov.18: Stoxx 600, FTSE, AI bubble, Wall Street

Google boss warns 'no company is going to be immune' if AI bubble bursts

Updated: 08:50, 18 November 2025

The boss of Google's parent firm, Alphabet, has warned that no company would be immune if the artificial intelligence (AI) bubble bursts. 

Sundar Pichai told the BBC that while the level of investment in AI had been an 'extraordinary moment', there was some 'irrationality' in the ongoing boom.  

Asked whether Google would be immune to the impact of the AI bubble bursting, Pichai said the business could weather the potential storm, but issued a warning.

He said: 'I think no company is going to be immune, including us.'

In Silicon Valley, the debate over whether AI firms are overvalued has taken on a fresh urgency in recent weeks. 

Investors are increasingly nervous over warning signs that a surge in AI stocks that has propelled US markets to a series of highs could prove overdone. 

Pichai said the tech sector can 'overshoot' in investment cycles such as this.

He added: 'We can look back at the internet right now. There was clearly a lot of excess investment, but none of us would question whether the internet was profound.

'I expect AI to be the same. So I think it's both rational and there are elements of irrationality through a moment like this.'    

The International Monetary Fund and Bank of England have both warned of the risk of an AI bubble in recent weeks. 

In the last seven months, shares in Alphabet have more than doubled in value to $3.5trillion, or £2.7trillion, as markets have grown more confident in the firm's capacity to fend off the threat from ChatGPT owner OpenAI.

A particular focus is Alphabet's development of specialised superchips for AI that compete with Nvidia, run by Jensen Huang, which recently reached a $5trillion valuation. As valuations increase rapidly, some analysts have expressed scepticism about a complicated web of huge deals being done around OpenAI, which is expected to have revenues this year of less than one thousandth of the planned investment.

This week, it emerged that tech billionaire Peter Thiel had sold his entire stake in chip maker Nvidia, worth an estimated $100million, or £76million. 

Recently, Softbank dumped its £4.4billion holding in Nvidia. The firm's finance chief, Yoshimitsu Goto said: 'I can’t say if we’re in an AI bubble or not.' 

More

Google boss warns 'no company is going to be immune' if AI bubble bursts | This is Money

Diplomatic spat between Tokyo and Beijing threatens Japan’s already fragile economy

Published Tue, Nov 18 2025 3:53 AM EST

Japan’s fragile economy, already hurt by U.S. tariffs and declining investments in property, faces another hit due to the diplomatic spat between Tokyo and Beijing.

Miffed over Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s comments related to Taiwan, China on Friday advised its citizens against travelling to the country. Japanese tourism-exposed stocks fell in the aftermath of that warning, while experts caution the impact could be more severe over a longer duration.

Mainland Chinese tourists have been the largest group of foreign visitors to Japan so far in 2025 at about 5.7 million, or nearly 23% of all visitors, according to Japan’s National Tourism Organisation.

Takahide Kiuchi, executive economist at Nomura Research Institute, said tensions between the two Asian powers could result in a 1.79 trillion yen drop in Japan’s GDP over the course of one year — a 0.29% decline in the country’s GDP.

Mainland Chinese tourists to Japan dropped nearly 8% in 2013 compared to 2012 when there was a dispute over islands off western Japan in September 2012, known as the Senkaku in Tokyo and Diaoyu in Beijing. Kiuchi sees a similar risk in how the current situation is unfolding.

Travel spending is a huge growth driver for the world’s fourth largest economy, with inbound tourism contributing 0.4 percentage point to Japan’s 0.1% annual GDP growth last year, according to the Mastercard Economics Institute.

Stefan Angrick, head of Japan at Moody’s Analytics, echoed Kiuchi, saying that “a sharp drop in Chinese travel to Japan would sting.” Angrick said that if Chinese arrivals were to halve — as they have during previous diplomatic spats — Japan’s GDP growth could shrink by 0.2 percentage point.

″[This is] Hardly catastrophic, but an unwelcome drag for an economy already struggling to find traction,” Angrick said.

Japan’s third quarter GDP contracted 0.4% sequentially, marking its first contraction in six quarters. On an annualized basis, the economy shrunk 1.8%.

Rising tensions

The current diplomatic spat started on Nov. 8, when Takaichi said that a Chinese attempt to seize Taiwan by force would constitute a “survival-threatening situation” for Japan, adding that if U.S. warships intervened to break a Chinese blockade, Japan could be required to defend its ally.

More

Diplomatic spat between Tokyo and Beijing threatens Japan's already fragile economy

In other news, UK consumer confidence sours ahead of tax rise day November 26th.

Consumer confidence plunges as Labour under fire

Monday 17 November 2025 1:33 pm  |  Updated:  Monday 17 November 2025 1:34 pm

Consumer confidence plunged to a four-month low last month, a leading survey has suggested, as Budget tax rumours shared by Labour officials instilled fear in Britons up and down the country. 

S&P Global’s UK consumer sentiment index slipped back in November as households became more nervous about their finances. 

The reading for household finances dropped from 47.5 in October to 43.4 in November, far below the 50-figure mark for neutrality and the lowest reading since March. 

The consumer confidence tracker, which combines fears about household finances with spending, saving and labour market sentiment, was recorded at 45.2. 

There was also the first decrease recorded to private sector workers’ incomes, which researchers at S&P Global said had ended a run of consecutive increases throughout 2025. 

When public sector workers were taken into account, income levels rose, according to survey results.

Maryam Baluch, economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said the deterioration of household expectation was linked to a “steepening fall in disposable incomes, pointing to reduced spending across all income tiers”. 

“As we approach the Autumn Budget, a sense of unease permeates across UK households, who are keenly awaiting the Chancellor’s forthcoming decisions,” Baluch said.

“Many households are grappling with uncertainty regarding potential changes in taxation, public spending, and economic forecasts that could significantly impact their financial wellbeing.”

Low consumer confidence due to Labour’s ‘naivety’

City analysts at Shore Capital blamed the Labour government for sapping confidence out of Brits due to “total incompetence” ahead of the Budget. 

“There is no point speculating as to what will be in the 2025 Budget because it appears that just days out the Chancellor does not have a clue either,” Clive Black, a research analyst at Shore Capital said.

“Whilst our basic disposition is to look to the jollier and fun side of life, it is with great disappointment and frustration, from a UK consumer economy perspective, that we approach the Budget of 2025 with such disdain for the top leadership of the country, and to be clear many senior officials, where to ideology,  naivety, and stupidity, we can add total incompetence.”

More

Consumer confidence plunges as Labour under fire

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Global recession fears as stocks and Bitcoin plunge across the world – FTSE hit

Economic panic has been sparked by the plummeting of stocks and is not immune Bitcoin.

08:14, Tue, Nov 18, 2025 Updated: 09:07, Tue, Nov 18, 2025

Stocks have plunged globablly with Asian shares of bitcoin falling of a cliff following Federal Reserve Board of Governors member Christopher Waller's stark warning of redundancies at an "eye-popping" scale across major US firms. 

It comes amid nervousness in the markets as analysts await September employment data set to be published on Thursday, key figures that have been considerably delayed due to the recent US government shutdown - which was the longest in history.

Investors are also watching closely amid fears from some experts that the boom in Artificial Intelligence (AI) may be a bubble on the verge of bursting, bringing shares on a brink of a sharp correction, as per The Telegraph.

Japanese stocks saw a sharp fall on Tuesday, with the Nikkei slumping by 3% amid the tech stocks fears. Chip maker Tokyo Electron dropped 5.4%, while leading semi-conductor test provider Advantest shed 4.6%.

Benchmarks in South Korea and Taiwan also saw falls, with the Kospi dropping 3.1% to 3,960.82 and the Taiex plunging 2.3%, respectively.

Global recession fears as stocks and Bitcoin plunge across the world | World | News | Express.co.uk

Home Depot cuts earnings outlook as home improvement demand falls short of expectations

Published Tue, Nov 18 2025 5:30 AM EST

Home Depot on Tuesday cut its full-year profit forecast and missed Wall Street’s earnings expectations for the third straight quarter as it saw weaker home improvement demand, tepid consumer spending and lower than usual storm activity.

The retailer said it now expects full-year sales will climb about 3% and comparable sales, which take out the impact of one-time factors like store openings and calendar differences, to be slightly positive. That compares to its previous expectations for full-year sales to grow by 2.8% and comparable sales to increase by 1%.

The revised outlook includes an estimated $2 billion in incremental revenue from GMS, a building-products distributor that Home Depot acquired earlier this year. The company’s sales were not part of its previous full-year guidance.

Home Depot expects full-year adjusted earnings per share to decline by about 5% from the year-ago period, compared to its prior expectations that they would fall by about 2%

In a CNBC interview, Chief Financial Officer Richard McPhail said the retailer previously expected home improvement activity would increase. It also anticipated higher sales of roofing materials, generators and other supplies that typically sell before and after seasonal storms.

Neither dynamic materialized, he said, putting pressure on the business. 

More

Home Depot (HD) Q3 2025 earnings

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.

 

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

AI bubble fears: Which of the Magnificent Seven will pop?

Monday 17 November 2025 12:34 pm

The spectacle of the so-called Magnificent Seven – Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Tesla, Meta, Microsoft, and Nvidia – has been the defining market story of this generation.

Synonymous with the AI boom, their collective valuation, now commanding a fifth of global markets, is underpinned by the fervent belief that they alone will win the AI arms race.

But beneath soaring stock prices and trillion-dollar market caps, a divide is creeping in.

As the ‘AI bubble’ begins to show signs of inflation, the impact will not be a uniform crash, or ‘pop’, rather, but a reckoning that exposes which of these titans are built on sustainable fundamentals and, in turn, which rest on shakier ground.

The defining characteristic of this boom is the unprecedented and almost unimaginable scale of capital expenditure. We’re talking about an arms race here where Wall Street, through firms like Blue Owl, is financing data centres costing tens of billions.

The $1tn spending spree

Cloud behemoths Microsoft and Alphabet have been locked in a staggering battle for dominance in the intelligent cloud market.

For its part, Microsoft is running full steam ahead, with its finance chief, Amy Hood, noting that demand is so high the company “can’t keep up”, driving capital spending to an estimated over $80bn this fiscal year.

Not to be outdone, Alphabet has also recently committed a colossal $40bn to new data centres across the US, cementing its aggressive ramp towards AI dominance.

Elsewhere, Zuckerberg’s Meta is playing the same game, with plans to invest up to $72bn this year alone, risking billions to stay ahead, even as its costs soar by 32 per cent.

The firm’s chief marketing officer and VP of analytics, Alex Schultz, said: “In general, humanity has the ability to have a lot more abundance than it does,” arguing that the investment in these technologies is essential.

At the epicentre is Nvidia, whose chips are the single biggest drain on the industry’s coffers.

Its revenue growth has been stratospheric, with 56 per cent in its last reported quarter, making it the market’s proxy for the entire AI build out – the crucial barometer whose fortunes dictate market sentiment.

The issue is that analysts are now modelling almost surreal growth curves for Jensen Huang’s firm, expecting revenue to potentially reach $383bn by 2028.

This spending spree, which could cross the £1tn line in the next few years, would require $2tn in annual AI revenue to justify.

This tension is fuelling the consensus that the market is “frothy”. But, as OpenAI chairman and chief executive of Sierra, Bret Taylor, said: “It is both true that AI will transform the economy and that we’re also in a bubble, and a lot of people will lose a lot of money.”

Who falls the hardest?

When the bubble inevitably deflates, the subsequent fallout will not be equal.

The vulnerability of each of the Magnificent Seven firms is tied directly to the ratio of future promise compared to its current profitable reality.

In that sense, Tesla is perhaps the most exposed. Trading at a dizzying 263 times past earnings, its valuation is built almost entirely on highly speculative future products like ‘robotaxis’, leaving open the “possibility for a very unhappy ending.” This valuation is not supported by present earnings.

Meanwhile, the market is offering a degree of protection to the most diversified.

Alphabet’s valuation of 27 times earnings has been viewed as “not outlandish” because its massive cash flow from search and YouTube provides a robust safety net against its aggressive cloud spending.

Still, Apple is perhaps the most insulated. Its high valuation of 33 times earnings is supported by its fortress-like ecosystem.

Its services division, which contributes over 20 per cent of its revenue, and its base of over two billion active devices globally, create a recurring revenue stream less susceptible to volatile AI trends.

More

AI bubble fears: Which of the Magnificent Seven will pop?

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

A large Bank is exactly the place where a vain and shallow person in authority, if he be a man of gravity and method, as such men often are, may do infinite evil in no long time, and before he is detected. If he is lucky enough to begin at a time of expansion in trade, he is nearly sure not to be found out till the time of contraction has arrived, and then very large figures will be required to reckon the evil he has done.

Walter Bagehot. Lombard Street. 1873