Baltic Dry Index. 2077 +47 Brent Crude 64.01
Spot Gold 4199 US 2 Year Yield 3.58 +0.02
US Federal Debt. 38.191 trillion
US GDP 31.574 trillion.
Once doubt begins it spreads rapidly.
John Maynard Keynes
Little need for my input this morning, the
articles speak loudly of the harsh reality emerging in the stock casinos.
Asia shares track Wall Street declines as tech
selloff deepens, Fed rate-cut hopes fade
Published Thu, Nov 13 2025 6:47 PM EST
Asia-Pacific markets slid Friday, tracking
losses on Wall Street, as technology stocks continued to come under pressure
and Fed rate-cut doubts swirled.
Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 index lost 1.85%,
while the Topix slid 1.03%. Tech stocks led declines on the index, with tech
conglomerate Rakuten
Group tumbling 6.57%, semiconductor testing equipment maker Advantest falling 5.27%,
and Lasertec retreating
3.97%.
Japanese giant SoftBank plunged as much as 8% in
early trading, marking its third consecutive day of decline after it said
Tuesday it had sold its entire stake in Nvidia.
South Korea’s Kospi fell 2.29% and the
small-cap Kosdaq was 1.42% lower. Index heavyweight Samsung Electronics slipped
more than 3%, while SK
Hynix, which supplies memory chips to Nvidia, fell 5%.
The South Korean won strengthened 0.72% to
1,460.0 against the dollar,
after the finance minister said Friday that the country’s FX authorities will
consult major market players including the national pension fund and key
exporters on ways to stabilize the won, according to Reuters.
According to the report, Finance Minister
Koo Yun-cheol told senior economic officials that steps were needed to tackle
the structural mismatch in U.S. dollar supply and demand, amid growing concerns
over currency market volatility.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 lost 1.58%.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index lost 0.88%,
while mainland’s CSI 300 dipped 0.64% after government
data Friday showed China’s slowdown worsened in October, dragged by soft
consumer demand and a deepening property downturn.
Fixed-asset investment, which includes
real estate, contracted 1.7% for the first ten months of the year, steepening
from a 0.5% decline in the January-to-September period. Industrial output
expanded 4.9% year on year in October, missing expectations for a 5.5% jump and
slowing down from a 6.5% rise in the prior month.
Retail sales climbed 2.9% in October from
a year earlier, topping expectations for a 2.8% growth in a Reuters poll, but
softening from a 3% year-on-year rise in September.
The Chinese onshore yuan rose to a
one-year high of 7.0908 against the dollar, data from LSEG showed.
Overnight in the U.S., all three major
averages closed lower as investors continued to sell shares of technology
companies, especially those in the artificial intelligence trade, amid worries
about their valuations.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost
797.60 points, or 1.65%, to settle at 47,457.22, well off the record
highs set in
the previous session. The S&P
500 shed 1.66% to finish at 6,737.49.
The broad-based index saw notable declines
in the information technology and communication services sectors, led by Disney, which fell nearly 8% on
mixed results for its
fiscal fourth quarter. The Nasdaq
Composite pulled back 2.29% to close at 22,870.36. All three major
averages, as well as the small-cap Russell 2000 index, suffered their
worst day since Oct. 10.
Recent remarks from Fed
chair Jerome Powell’s colleagues point to plenty of apprehension over
whether the central bank should deliver its third consecutive easing of policy
when it meets Dec. 9-10.
“Given my baseline outlook, it will likely
be appropriate to keep policy rates at the current level for some time to
balance the inflation and employment risks in this highly uncertain
environment,” Boston
Fed President Susan Collins recently said.
As a result, markets have recalibrated
their expectations. Whereas traders as recently as a few days ago were pricing
in at least a 2-to-1 probability of a quarter percentage point cut, that’s now
flipped to a coin toss, according to futures markets readings tabulated by the
CME Group in its FedWatch tool.
Asia-Pacific
stocks: Nikkei 225, Kospi, Nifty 50, China retail sales
Wall Street slumps as fears about AI bubble return
13 November 2025
Stocks on Wall Street slumped on Thursday
as worries about high valuations of artificial intelligence (AI)
businesses returned and amid doubts about US interest rate cuts.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite dropped by
more than 2.3pc, its third-straight day of losses.
Some of the world’s biggest technology
companies shed hundreds of billions of dollars in value as investors grew more
pessimistic about a potential Federal Reserve interest rate cut in the wake of
an historic 43-day shut down of the US government.
Nvidia, the world’s most valuable company
at $4.5 trillion, lost more than $150bn in value as its shares slid 3.6pc.
Shares in Elon Musk’s Tesla dropped by 10pc, losing $160bn in market
capitalisation, while software giant Oracle dropped by 5pc.
Elsewhere, the price of Bitcoin dropped
almost 3pc to as low as $98,072, its lowest price since May 8.
The tech sell-off pulled down the broader
market with the benchmark S&P 500 index dropping 1.7pc, led by Disney,
which fell 8pc after its results disappointed investors.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average slumped
1.65pc.
Investors pulled back from stocks amid new
doubts about a cut to US interest rates. A series of key economic data
announcements from the US government have been put on hold and may be
permanently cancelled, after a spending shut down sent workers home.
Karoline Leavitt, the White House press
secretary, said this week that ratesetters had been left “flying blind” by the
closure of the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The market is now split on whether the
Federal Reserve will cut US interest rates in December. Traders are betting
there is just a 50pc chance of a rate cut at its next meeting, down from more
than 90pc two weeks ago and down from more than 60pc just a day ago.
In recent days, a series of US Fed
governors and state central bankers have issued a more cautious tone on the
speed of rate cuts.
“These developments chip away at our
confidence that the Fed will cut in December,” said Krishna Guha, head of
global policy at Evercore ISI.
Investors are also grappling with fears of a bubble in technology stocks driven by exuberant
predictions about the promise of AI and pledges by Silicon Valley labs
to spend trillions of dollars on data centre and energy infrastructure.
Those doubts were stoked on Thursday after
it emerged that Michael Burry, the investor known for his bet against the US
housing market in The Big Short, was closing his hedge fund. In a letter to
investors he said: “My estimation of value in securities is not now, and has
not been for some time, in sync with the markets.”
Wall Street slumps as fears about AI bubble return
Why
that AI bubble makes no sense. Approx. 23
minutes.
The
AI Bubble: Why $10 Trillion in AI Investments Will Disappear
The AI Bubble: Why
$10 Trillion in AI Investments Will Disappear
In other news, is UBS the new Bear Stearns 2007,
2.0?
UBS to liquidate O'Connor funds hit by First
Brands bankruptcy
November 11, 2025
(Reuters) -UBS Group is winding down
investment funds run by its hedge fund unit O'Connor, it said on Friday, after
suffering losses due to exposure to bankrupt U.S. auto parts supplier
First Brands Group.
The liquidation comes after UBS CFO Todd
Tuckner said in October the bank was moving ahead with O'Connor's sale to U.S.
brokerage Cantor Fitzgerald.
He had acknowledged that the bank is
"working through" whether funds with First Brands exposure would be
included in the transaction.
"We informed investors last month
that O'Connor's Working Capital Opportunistic funds are being wound down and
the majority of the funds' assets will be monetized by the end of the
year," a UBS spokesperson said.
"As a priority, we're taking steps to
protect clients' interests and maximize recovery of the remaining First Brands
Group-related positions through the complex bankruptcy process," the
spokesperson said in an emailed statement to Reuters.
First Brands filed for bankruptcy
protection in September after disclosing liabilities exceeding $10 billion.
UBS has more than $500 million in exposure
to First Brands across several investment funds, including those managed by
O'Connor, according to U.S. court filings.
The Swiss bank emphasized during its
third-quarter earnings that it has no balance sheet exposure to First Brands
and that the affected funds, targeted at sophisticated investors with clear
risk disclosures, breached no investment guidelines.
UBS' plans to wind down its funds with
First Brands Group exposure were first reported by The Financial Times on
Thursday.
UBS to liquidate
O'Connor funds hit by First Brands bankruptcy
BlackRock Faces 100% Loss On Private Loan,
Adding To Credit Market Pain
November 10, 2025
About a month ago, BlackRock Inc. deemed
the private debt it had extended to Renovo Home Partners, a struggling home
improvement company, to be worth 100 cents on the dollar. As of last week, the
firm had a new assessment: zero.
The drastic revision comes as Dallas-based Renovo — a roll-up of regional
kitchen and bathroom remodeling businesses created by private equity firm Audax
Group in 2022 — abruptly filed for bankruptcy last week, indicating it plans to
shut down.
BlackRock held the majority of Renovo’s
roughly $150 million of private debt, while Apollo Global Management Inc.’s
MidCap Financial and Oaktree Capital Management held smaller chunks, according
to people with knowledge of the matter, who asked not to be identified
discussing a private transaction.
It was no mystery Renovo was in a tough spot. In April, lenders had agreed to
take losses and convert some of their loans into equity as part of a
recapitalization that was supposed to give the company a chance to turn its
business around, the people said. In the third quarter, they also allowed for
deferred cash interest payments on its restructured debt, an arrangement known
as payment-in-kind, regulatory filings show.
Yet at the end of September, funds managed
by BlackRock and MidCap Financial were still marking the new Renovo debt at
par, which typically indicates investors expect to be paid back in full.
It took only a few weeks for the situation
to quickly unravel
“Early in the fourth quarter,
company-specific performance and liquidity issues led the Renovo board to
determine that the best available path forward was a liquidation process,”
Philip Tseng, chief executive officer of BlackRock TCP Capital Corp., said during
an earnings call. “We expect to fully write down this position in the fourth
quarter of 2025.”
Apollo’s Ted McNulty, a managing director,
said during an earnings call for the MidCap Financial Investment Corp. fund
that the firm “became aware” that Renovo would be filing for bankruptcy at the
end of October.
Spokespeople for BlackRock and Apollo
declined to comment further. A representative for Oaktree declined to comment.
While the Renovo debt represents a sliver
of total assets for the three lenders, its sudden collapse strikes at the heart
of what critics see as a major vulnerability in the private credit market: the
disconnect between the valuation of illiquid loans and the performance of the
underlying companies. Zips Car Wash similarly enjoyed marks that were near par
from its private credit lenders months before filing for bankruptcy earlier
this year.
It also comes in the wake of the collapses
of subprime auto lender Tricolor Holdings and car-parts manufacturer First
Brands Group, which have caught investors off guard. They’ve stoked fears there
could be more pain to come in credit markets and led Wall Street executives to
trade shots as to who is to blame for poor underwriting standards.
Renovo’s main borrowing entity, HomeRenew
Buyer Inc., filed for Chapter 7 bankruptcy last week, listing liabilities of
between $100 million and $500 million and assets of under $50,000.
“We view this outcome as a result of
issues specific to the issuer, rather than a reflection of broader sector
weakness,” Tseng said about Renovo during the earnings call for BlackRock TCP
Capital, one of the firm’s private credit funds.
BlackRock Faces
100% Loss On Private Loan, Adding To Credit Market Pain
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
GB
joins Germany and France in stumbling towards recession or worse, stagflation.
UK
economy barely grows in third quarter
Thursday
13 November 2025 7:27 am
The
UK economy grew at a more sluggish pace than expected in the third quarter of
the year amid a pervasive sense of gloom across the country ahead of the
Budget.
The
Office for National Statistics (ONS) said there was 0.1 per cent GDP growth
between July and September, triggering fears among City analysts that there was
a “looming” recession. Economists pencilled in 0.2 per cent growth for the
three-month period.
Statisticians
said production output dropped 0.5 per cent while the services sector grew by a
marginal 0.2 per cent.
On
a monthly basis, there was a 0.1 per cent contraction in the UK economy
September.
“Across
the quarter as a whole manufacturing drove the weakness in production.”
McKeown
added that the cyber attack on Jaguar Land Rover contributed to a “particularly
marked fall in car production” while there was also a fall in the
pharmaceutical industry.
The
results may give rise to a sense of panic ahead of the Budget, with looming tax
rises and fiscal restraint expected to further dampen growth in the coming
months.
Rachel
Reeves said: “We had the fastest-growing economy in the G7 in the first half of
the year, but there’s more to do to build an economy that works for working
people.
“At
my Budget later this month, I will take the fair decisions to build a strong
economy that helps us to continue to cut waiting lists, cut the national debt
and cut the cost of living.”
Reeves
is widely expected to raise more than £30bn in taxes, targeting household
income as well as pension pots and gamblers.
Economists
have also warned that the Chancellor will have to
build a bigger fiscal headroom to gain credibility in the bond markets and help
lower borrowing costs.
Reeves
has said that growing the UK economy was one of two “principles” set to guide
her Budget, alongside introducing “fairness” in policymaking.
She
has indicated that a Labour manifesto pledge not to raise income
tax would
be broken.
Lindsay
James, investment strategist at Quilter, said the Budget was “critical” for
preventing a further economic downturn.
“Her
next move will be critical if she is to recover Labour’s economic growth
mission and prevent any whispers of a recession looming,” James said.
Andrew
Griffith, shadow business secretary said: “With GDP, investment and
manufacturing all down, growth is as absent as the phantom plots the Prime
Minister frets about.
UK
economy stumbles on
The
UK economy enjoyed a surge in growth over the first half of the year, with a
one per cent rise in GDP. Economists put down to front-loading in purchases and
investors by firms and households ahead of potential tariff announcements by
President Trump.
The International
Monetary Fund (IMF) said
the UK would outperform all G7 countries bar the US in 2025 though a growth in
living standards, measured through GDP per capita, would be the lowest out of
any of the seven advanced economies over the next two years.
Treasury
officials will be eagerly anticipating the Office
for Budget Responsibility (OBR)’s final decision on its growth downgrades
following its review of productivity trends.
City
analysts have said a 0.3 percentage point decrease to productivity trend
forecasts could blow a £20bn in public finances alone.
Reeves
has blamed a downgrade in growth forecasts on the previous Conservative
government.
“The
reason why our productivity and our growth has been so poor in these last few
years is because governments have always taken the easy option to cut
investment in road and rail projects, in energy projects, [and] in digital
infrastructure,” she told the BBC this week.
Reeves
has also said the government would strive to overcome gloomy economic
forecasts.
UK economy barely
grows in third quarter
The
unprecedented government shutdown will weigh on a US economy already under
stress
Updated
5:05 PM GMT, November 13, 2025
WASHINGTON
(AP) — The six-week government shutdown that came to an end late Wednesday will
be another drag on an economy already facing many challenges, though the full
impact will take months to measure.
About
1.25 million federal workers haven’t been paid since Oct. 1. Roughly 10,000
flights have been cancelled since last week and disruptions will continue, the
officials say, even as air traffic controllers return to work. Government
contract awards have slowed and many food aid recipients have seen their benefits
interrupted.
Most
of the lost economic activity will be recovered when the government reopens, as
federal workers will receive back pay. But some canceled flights won’t be
rebooked, many canceled restaurant reservations won’t be made again, and some
postponed purchases will never happen.
The
shutdown also cut off the flow of economic data on jobs, inflation, and
consumer spending, which could lead the Federal Reserve to skip what had been
an expected interest rate cut at its next meeting in December.
“The
shutdown has been harmful to the U.S. economy and to critical data collection
about employment, prices and more,” said Heather Long, chief economist at the
Navy Federal Credit Union.
The
Congressional Budget Office estimated that a six-week shutdown will reduce growth
in this year’s fourth quarter by about 1.5 percentage points. That would cut
growth by about half from the third quarter. The reopening should boost
first-quarter growth next year by 2.2 percentage points, the CBO projected, but
about $11 billion in economic activity will be permanently lost.
The
previous longest government shutdown, in 2018-2019, lasted 35 days but only
partially shut the government because many agencies had been fully funded. It
only nicked the economy by about 0.02% of GDP, the CBO said then.
This
year’s shutdown adds to the economy’s existing challenges, which include sluggish
hiring, stubbornly elevated
inflation, and President Donald Trump’s tariffs, which have caused
uncertainty for many businesses. Still, few economists foresee a recession.
Here
are the ways the government closure has weighed on the economy:
More
The
unprecedented government shutdown will weigh on a US economy already under
stress | AP News
Covid-19
Corner
This
section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
OCSiAl to build the world’s largest
graphene nanotube facility in the world
November 13, 2025
Leudelange, Luxembourg –
OCSiAl has announced the signing of a land lease, launching the development of
its flagship graphene nanotube production center in Differdange, Luxembourg,
that will become the world’s largest graphene nanotube production facility.
This official announcement is
a culmination of a years-long effort by the company and theLuxembourg
Government, including most recently an investment round raised from a “club” of
Luxembourg based investors and the signing with the State of Luxembourg of a
long-term land lease for a 3.63-hectare site in Differdange.
“The launch of this future
production center in Differdange perfectly illustrates our ambition toposition
Luxembourg as a key player in industrial innovation in Europe. This major
investment in graphene nanotubes demonstrates investors’ confidence in our
ecosystem and highlights the potential of our business parks to host high-tech
industrial projects. We are proud to support OCSiAl in this strategic step,
which will contribute to the creation of skilled jobs, the reputation of
Luxembourg in deep-tech, and the transition to a more sustainable and
competitive industry,” said Lex Delles, Minister of the Economy, SME, Energy
& Tourism.
“OCSiAl’s investment
highlights Luxembourg’s role as a platform for long-term innovation and smart
industrial development,” added Gilles Roth, Minister of Finance. “This project
reflects the value of combining private sector vision with public infrastructure
support.”
Founded in Luxembourg in
2010, OCSiAl has become the world’s largest producer of graphene nanotubes, a
next-generation material that offers exceptional performance to a multitude of
products used. in everyday life. OCSiAl’s nanotubes, currently produced only in
Serbia, where the company is increasing production capacity fourfold, are
already used in more than 10% of smartphones sold today and in over one million
electric vehicles worldwide.
“Graphene nanotubes can
improve over half of the materials we use every day, from safer batteries to
longer-lasting tires and ultralight protective equipment,” said Alain Kinsch, a
member of the OCSiAl Board of Directors. “We thank the Luxembourg Government
for enabling this project through the land lease and for fostering an
environment where innovation and industrial ambition can thrive.”
“This is a landmark step for
OCSiAl and for Differdange,” said Norbert Becker, another OCSiAl board member.
“It’s a project that combines visionary science, strong local roots, and a
long-term investment in jobs and know-how.”
With a planned investment of
$300 million and creation of over 300 new jobs, the facility, to be launched in
stages from 2028 to 2030, will strengthen Europe’s role in the global advanced
materials value chain and serve as a development hub for the next generation of
engineers and scientists.
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt Clocks
(usdebtclock.org)
Another
weekend and how will Trump tariffs and the US government shutdown affect the coming
US Thanksgiving and Christmas holiday retail season, if at all? Stick around,
we will shortly find out. Have a great weekend everyone.
The central principle of investment is to go contrary to the
general opinion, on the grounds that if everyone agreed about its merits, the
investment is inevitably too dear and therefore unattractive.
John Maynard Keynes
No comments:
Post a Comment