Baltic
Dry Index. 2153 +28
Brent Crude 63.81
Spot Gold 4022 US 2 Year Yield 3.60 -0.02
US Federal Debt. 38.208 trillion
US GDP 31.582 trillion.
“When a country (USA) is losing many billions of dollars on trade with virtually every country it does business with, trade wars are good, and easy to win. When we are down $100 billion with a certain country and they get cute, don’t trade anymore – we win big. It’s easy!”
Donald Trump, March 2018.
Did AI’s bubble just burst? It’s still too early to know for certain, but it does look like the AI mania just ran out of greater fools.
If AI mania is over, look out below. Billions of mal-investment will disappear in stock casino losses right ahead of the US Thanksgiving and Christmas holiday shopping season.
Don’t look now but most commodities were having a bad trading day too, though not soybeans which finally rallied.
Asia-Pacific markets fall, tracking Wall Street
declines on tech losses and AI jitters
Published Mon, Nov 17 2025 6:46 PM EST
Asia-Pacific markets fell Tuesday,
following a tech-led slide on Wall Street.
Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 slid 0.92%, while
the Topix declined 0.6%. South Korea’s Kospi was 0.64% lower while the
small-cap Kosdaq slid 0.58%.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index lost
0.86%, while mainland CSI 300 was flat.
Australia’s benchmark S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.76%.
Yields on Japan’s 20-year government bond
rose almost 4 basis points to 2.78%, the highest since July 1999, data from
LSEG showed. Yields on the 10-year government bond rose around 2 basis points
to 1.751%.
Overnight in the U.S., stocks pulled back,
plagued once again by declines in tech, as Wall Street awaited key releases
this week, including Nvidia earnings
and the September jobs report.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost
557.24 points, or 1.18%, to close at 46,590.24, as losses in the artificial
intelligence chip darling, along with Salesforce and Apple, pushed the blue-chip
index lower. The S&P 500 sank
0.92% to end the day at 6,672.41, while the Nasdaq Composite tumbled
0.84% to settle at 22,708.07.
Nvidia dropped almost 2% ahead of the
company’s third-quarter results, which are scheduled for after the bell on
Wednesday. The chipmaker and other names in the AI trade were under
pressure recently as investors grew anxious about stretched
valuations. Blue Owl
Capital, a private credit lender, shed nearly 6% amid concerns about its
heavy lending tied to the AI data center buildout.
Asia-Pacific
markets: Nikkei 225, Nifty 50, Kospi
Wall Street in 'extreme fear' as stocks plunge
AGAIN amid fears world's biggest company is a dud
Published: 20:53, 17
November 2025 | Updated: 02:57, 18 November 2025
A fresh wave of selling hit Wall Street on
Monday — the latest blow to Americans’ retirement savings as stocks and crypto
continue their steep November slide.
The Dow lost 1.2 percent, while the
S&P 500 and Nasdaq lost just under one percent.
Bitcoin slid nearly three percent below
$92,000, continuing a painful 25 percent slide since hitting records
in early October.
The sell-off has dragged CNN's Fear &
Greed Index sharply lower. The gauge — which tracks seven indicators
including market momentum and stock price strength — dropped to 14 out of 100
by late Monday.
It's the weakest reading since April, when
President Donald Trump imposed higher-than-expected tariffs.
Back then, the index bottomed out at 3 before surging to 78 in
July as markets set a string of new records.
On Monday, tech stocks were among the
hardest hit, as traders nervously brace for Nvidia's earnings on
Wednesday.
Wall Street is hoping for another
blockbuster quarter from the world’s only $5 trillion company — but anything
short of perfection risks worsening the gloom.
'Nvidia serves as the leader of the AI
revolution — and AI has been a leading catalyst for this bull market,' Bret
Kenwell, a US investment analysts at eToro, told Daily Mail.
'That's why there's so much focus on its
earnings this week.'
Investors have been flooding cash into the
chipmaker for nearly two years, and to many, it is the bellwether for AI's
effectiveness.
'It'll be, on one hand, important for
Nvidia to confirm that demand is still there, that they're not seeing a
slowdown,' Ross Mayfield, an investment strategist at Baird, told CNBC.
'But unless they take it a step further, I
think it's only going to leave the second question more open-ended, which is,
"We know there's demand for compute, so what is the return on investment
for the firms that are buying all of these chips?"'
There are more clues later this week on
the state of the US economy.
Walmart reports earnings before the market
opens on Thursday, and those results could reveal just how stretched the
American shopper really is.
Thursday also brings the September nonfarm
payrolls report — the first major economic release since the government
shutdown froze key data.
Some of AI's biggest cheerleaders think
the technology is going to save billions of dollars in costs.
For example, Morgan Stanley estimates
that AI adoption could unlock nearly $1trillion a year in net benefits for
S&P 500 companies.
But not everyone is convinced. Some of the
market’s biggest skeptics are now warning that the AI boom may be losing
steam.
Among them is Michael Burry, the Big Short investor
who famously predicted the 2008 financial crash.
In early November, filings revealed he had
made a huge bet that Nvidia's share price will fall.
Then, last Tuesday, Masayoshi Son,
one of tech's most–watched investors, revealed he quietly sold off all his Nvidia shares and most
of his stake in T-Mobile last month.
Both moves were read as a warning sign
that the AI boom — the same one that has powered record stock gains for
companies like Nvidia, Microsoft, and Palantir — might finally be wobbling.
Last Thursday, the Volatility Index,
otherwise known as Wall Street's fear gauge, jumped nearly 20 percent.
'With increased uncertainty comes
increased volatility — and that's exactly what we've seen so far in November,'
Kenwell added.
'But not all hope is lost. While the
S&P 500 is letting off some steam, investors need to remember that the
index is up significantly from its April low and has enjoyed a six-month
rally.'
In other news, did US soybean producers largely
miss China’s boat?
China Ramps Up Buying of US Soybeans After Brief
Pause in Trade
18 November 2025
(Bloomberg) -- China bought nearly a
million tons of US soybeans, breaking an apparent pause, in a fresh signal that
Beijing remains committed to its trade truce with Washington.
Chinese state-owned agriculture trader
Cofco Group booked nearly 20 cargoes of the American oilseed on Monday for
delivery in December and January, according to people familiar with the matter
who asked not to be identified because they’re not authorized to speak to
media. The shipments were from Pacific northwest ports and Gulf coast terminals
in the US, they said.
The renewed buying comes after purchases briefly stalled, and has reignited market
optimism that soybean trade between the two agricultural powerhouses, worth
more than $12 billion last year, is being revived.
Chicago soybeans rallied as much as 3.2%
on Monday following news of the purchases, reported earlier by brokerage
AgResource Co. Prices edged down during Asian trading hours on Tuesday.
Cofco did not immediately reply to a
request for comment.
More
China
Ramps Up Buying of US Soybeans After Brief Pause in Trade
China slow-walks U.S. soybean purchases as
stockpiles hit multi-year highs, undermining Trump’s trade deal claims
Published Mon, Nov 17 2025 2:24 AM EST
China’s imports of U.S. soybeans have
shown little sign of rebounding as Beijing’s stockpiles swelled to their
highest levels in years, undermining U.S. President Donald Trump’s claims that
a recent trade truce would spur major new Chinese purchases.
China, the world’s largest
consumer of
soybeans, has built up a glut of supplies after months of aggressive
stockpiling, which analysts said allowed Beijing to slow-walk its purchase
agreement even as both sides touted improved relations.
A U.S.
Department of Agriculture report released last Friday showed only
two Chinese purchases of American soybeans since the summit between Trump and
Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea, totaling 332,000 metric tons from
Oct. 2 through Nov. 12 — well short of the 12 million metric tons that the White
House said China agreed to purchase by year-end.
“Beijing’s promises to American presidents
have historically had a short expiration date, and Xi’s promises to Trump about
soybean purchases will likely be the same,” said Michael Sobolik, a senior
fellow at policy research house Hudson Institute.
China will likely “slow-roll soybean
purchases to bait the Trump administration into prolonged negotiations” to
freeze competitive actions from the Trump administration,” Sobolik added.
The legumes have long been a political
flashpoint in U.S.-China trade tensions, with Beijing squeezing American
farmers earlier this year when it boycotted U.S. soybeans at the start of the
new harvest season.
The White House last month stated that
Beijing also agreed, under a sweeping bilateral pact, to purchase 25
million tons annually over
the next three years, although that would fall short of the 26.8 million tons China bought
last year.
But China has been conspicuously quiet
about that commitment. Aside from suspending
retaliatory tariffs on
some U.S. agricultural imports, Beijing has not publicly confirmed those
targets, and analysts tracking Chinese import flows say the country’s near-term
appetite remains weak.
Beijing’s stockpiling
Chinese processors of raw soybeans, also
known as crushers, pig farmers and feed producers have built up inventories
that exceed typical levels, while state reserves have added further cushion.
Stocks at Chinese ports reached a record 10.3 million tons as of Nov. 7, up 3.6
million tons from a year earlier, according to data from Sublime
China Information cited by Reuters. Crushers held 7.5 million tons — also
the highest since 2017.
The buildup followed five consecutive
months of record-high soybean arrivals through September. Imports remained
elevated in October, rising 17.2% to 9.48 million tons last month, according to
China’s official customs data.
Total imports for the first ten months of
the year reached 95.7 million tons, a 6.4% increase from the same period last
year.
Brazil has supplied nearly 80% of those
soybean imports, according to estimates from grain
exporter group Anec last month. Imports from Brazil between April and
September rose 13% from a year earlier, according to Chris Turner, global head
of markets at ING.
“China buying a few U.S. soybean cargoes
will not mean much for Brazil,” Turner said, as South American supplies are
typically cheaper than U.S. shipments, even after China reduced the retaliatory
tariffs.
Earlier this month, China again increased
its soybean purchases from
Brazil as the South American nation lowered prices ahead of the
tariff reduction on U.S. imports, Reuters reported, citing three unnamed
traders, who said Chinese buyers booked 10 cargoes for December and another 10
for March through July.
Little sign of big buying
Industry participants said they see little
evidence of a major buying program from China’s state grain importers, such as
COFCO and Sinograin, which would likely handle the bulk of the promised
purchases.
“There’s very little indication that these
state buyers are engaged in a program to purchase 12 mmt ahead of the end of
this year, let alone 25 mmt more for calendar year 2026,” Arlan Suderman, chief
commodities economist at StoneX, wrote in a note on Nov. 11. “Thus far we see
little evidence of it as the clock continues to tick.”
Beijing’s signals have been mixed.
It restored
import licenses for three U.S. soybean exporters earlier this
month, including CHS Inc., a
Minnesota-based company.
At the country’s largest
agricultural imports expo last week, Chen Chao, a director at China’s
Ministry of Commerce, described agricultural trade as a cornerstone of the
broader U.S.–China economic relationship. “With vast potential ahead, deeper
agricultural cooperation will contribute positively to global food security and
shared prosperity,” he said, according to state media
reports.
In another diplomatic gesture, top Chinese
trade negotiator Li Chenggang met with
a delegation
of American agricultural groups earlier this month, during which he
vowed to create a favorable environment for agricultural trade cooperation.
But purchases remain erratic. As recently
as last week, Bloomberg reported that China’s purchases of U.S. soybeans appeared
to have stalled again.
China was absent
from the U.S. autumn harvest this year amid protracted trade
friction with Washington, though Reuters
reported in late October that COFCO had ordered three U.S. soybean
cargoes ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting.
The slowdown has strained U.S. farmers
financially, as China was typically their top export market, having sold $12.6
billion of the legume to Beijing in 2024. Trump has slammed the purchase pause
as an
“economically hostile” act.
More
China is drowning
in soybeans. U.S. farmers are drowning in frustration
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Recession
misses America’s asset owners while hitting everyone else
17
November 2025
Nearly
half of the United States is slipping toward recession. However, according to
financial newsletter Kobeissi, wealthy asset holders are feeling a much
“nerfed” impact compared to households strained by rising debts, stagnant
wages, and job cuts.
The
Kobeissi Letter, sharing a chart from Moody Analytics, reported that 23 states
are now in recession or at high risk of entering one. Those states represent
almost a third of total US economic output, a deterioration from September’s
findings which counted 22 states, with the addition of Michigan.
23
US states are fighting a losing battle with recession
Struggling
parts of the country are states in the Midwest, Northeast, and Northwest, where
those marked in red include Washington, Oregon, Montana, Wyoming, South Dakota,
Minnesota, Iowa, Michigan, Illinois, Virginia, Connecticut, and Maine.
States
supposedly in the clear include Texas, Florida, Louisiana, Arizona, North Carolina, and
Georgia. Those mentioned to be in the “water,” which meant they are holding
steady but no longer posting meaningful growth, were California, New York,
Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Maryland.
According
to the report, the nation’s two largest state economies California and New York
are no longer expanding at earlier rates, and MarketWatch economist Mark Zandi
believes the two could turn the whole US into recession if the situation
deteriorates.
Moody
Analytics’ research also found that the top 10% of households control about
two-thirds of the nation’s wealth, while the bottom half of Americans hold less
than 3%.
The
wealth of asset holders, the struggle of hand-to-mouth workers
Households
with investment portfolios, rising home values, or business equity are
benefiting from appreciating financial markets. Meanwhile, families whose
spending goes primarily toward rent, insurance, utilities, and groceries are
struggling because prices are not coming down, and wages are not getting any
better.
“While
there is some distress at the household level, in line with that K-shaped
economy where the rich get richer and the poor get poorer. The macro picture is
fairly bright,” wrote Bankrate senior industry analyst Ted Rossman in a note to
investors last Wednesday.
Total
US household debt reached a record $18.59
trillion this year, with heavy reliance on loans for cars, education, homes,
and day-to-day living. Credit bureau Experian estimated that Americans owed
$17.57 trillion in the third quarter of 2024, a 2.4% increase from the previous
year and more than $105,000 in liabilities per consumer.
More
Recession
misses America’s asset owners while hitting everyone else
Covid-19
Corner
This
section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Sky
develops green power system for film and TV production
November 14, 2025 13.44
Sky has developed a hydrogen
and sodium battery-based mobile power system that it claims can replace diesel
generators on film and TV sets, in a move designed to cut on-set emissions and
noise.
The hybrid unit, built
in-house by Sky engineers and production staff, combines a green hydrogen fuel
cell with sodium batteries to deliver a zero-emission, grid-independent power
source for studio and location work. The system is pitched as a like-for-like
substitute for traditional gensets – capable of handling the same production
loads but producing only water and heat as by-products, with the water
recirculated into the fuel cell to improve efficiency. The sodium batteries
avoid precious or toxic minerals and are said to be safer and more recyclable
than lithium-based alternatives.
Sky says the solution can run
on or off the mains, easing pressure on local power infrastructure and
supporting both large studio shoots and remote outside broadcasts. With
research from Bafta’s albert initiative indicating that around 15% of emissions
from tentpole productions come from mobile power – and 50% from fossil fuel use
overall – the broadcaster argues the new unit has the potential to
significantly shrink productions’ carbon footprints while improving air quality
and reducing noise for crews and nearby communities.
“We’re so proud to announce
this clean-energy power unit – the first of its kind, capable of the biggest
production challenges,” said David Rhodes, Executive Chairman of Sky News.
“Now, we’re filling a real gap for smarter, quieter and more sustainable production
solutions.” Fiona Ball, Sky’s Group Director for Bigger Picture and
Sustainability, described the project as “a practical solution that supports
our journey to a low-carbon world and shows what’s possible when we embed
sustainability into everything we do.”
Live trials of the prototype
are now under way at Sky Studios Elstree. While the system is still in testing
and not yet commercially available, Sky plans to share results with the wider
industry as it refines the technology and explores wider deployment across its
production footprint.
Sky develops green power system for film and TV production
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt Clocks
(usdebtclock.org)
Reasonable men are not reasonable when you're in the bubbles
which have characterized capitalism since the beginning of time.
Paul Samuelson
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