Baltic
Dry Index. 2270 +10 Brent Crude 62.65
Spot Gold 4046 US 2 Year Yield 3.55 -0.03
US Federal Debt. 38.220 trillion
US GDP 31.589 trillion.
At the heart of capitalism is creative destruction.
Joseph A. Schumpeter
Is/has reality returned to the US stock casinos? If so, US and global stock casinos have a lot further to fall to match the increasingly harsh reality of a real global economy heading into recession.
An increasingly spent out global consumer appears to be cutting back spending and debt drastically.
We will shortly find out where all the losses lie, who’s gone bust but hiding it, and who can no longer service their debt.
Asia markets track Wall Street’s staggering
reversal in AI-related stocks
Published Thu, Nov 20 2025 6:45 PM EST
Asia-Pacific markets fell Friday, after
U.S. tech stocks lost ground and investors’ hopes of a December rate cut by the
Federal Reserve faded.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 tumbled 1.57% at
the open, while the Topix index lost 0.72%.
Tech conglomerate SoftBank plunged more
than 10%. Other tech stocks on the index fell, with Advantest losing more than
9%, Tokyo Electron retreating nearly 6%, Lasertec falling nearly 5%, and
Renesas Electron down 1.95%.
Japan’s
core inflation in October rose at its sharpest rate since July, in
line with market estimates on Friday, supporting the case for interest rate
hikes by the Bank of Japan.
South Korea’s Kospi index plunged 4.09%,
and the small-cap Kosdaq retreated 3.01%. Kospi’s heavyweights Samsung Electronics and SK
Hynix tumbled as much as 4% and 9%, respectively.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell 1.3%.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell 1.88% at
the open, while the Hang Seng Tech index was 2.33% lower. Tech major Baidu stumbled 6%, Xiaomi Corp declined
4.51%, and Tencent traded 2.25% lower.
Hang Seng auto stocks also took a hit.
Chinese electric-vehicle maker BYD fell
2.68%, while Nio and Li Auto dropped nearly 6%
and about 2%, respectively.
The mainland’s CSI 300 was down 1.13%.
India’s Nifty 50 was down 0.1%, while the
BSE Sensex index opened 0.33% lower.
Meanwhile, bitcoin fell 0.91% to $85,550,
hitting the lowest level in seven months. Ether hit its lowest since July,
before recouping some losses and was last down 1.08% at $2,802.81.
Overnight in the U.S., Oracle and AMD were among the first AI
plays to fall into the red on the session, followed by Nvidia, which reversed gains and
closed nearly 3% lower.
Stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data
renewed doubts about whether the central bank will lower its benchmark
overnight rate. Traders were pricing roughly a 40% chance of a quarter-point
cut next month, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, a setback for investors hoping for lower
borrowing costs.
On Thursday stateside, the Nasdaq Composite fell 2.16%,
down from a 2.6% advance at one point in the session.
Other major indexes also slipped, with
the Dow Jones Industrial
Average down 0.84%. The S&P 500 shed 1.56%,
despite rising as much as 1.9% earlier in the day.
Asia
markets track Wall Street's staggering reversal in AI-related stocks
When Nvidia Isn’t Enough to Dispel AI Bubble Fears
November 20, 2025 at 11:44 PM GMT
Well it wasn’t enough after all. Despite
Nvidia’s big, beautiful outlook last night, markets on Thursday tumbled back to
Earth, where fear of an artificial intelligence bubble waiting to pop still holds sway. Following Wednesday’s after-market party,
the S&P 500 Index today sank 1.6% and the Nasdaq dropped 2.2%.
US equity multiples remain near levels
seen in prior periods of exuberance, even after a pullback that’s pushing the
S&P toward its worst November since, well, 2008. Questions around whether
AI is generating enough revenue or profits to justify the massive spending on
infrastructure continue to weigh on sentiment, said Matt Maley, chief market
strategist at Miller Tabak + Co. And he’s not alone in his assessment.
“The Nvidia results, while positive,
weren’t enough to dispel doubts around whether valuations had gotten too rich,”
said Sameer Samana, head of global equities and real assets at Wells Fargo
Investment Institute.
What You Need to Know Today
So what to do when the horizon looks
increasingly dark? Hedge of course. Oracle, the once stodgy database giant (controlled by a Friend of Trump) that’s borrowed tens of
billions of dollars and tethered its fortunes to the AI boom, is quickly
emerging as the credit market’s barometer for risk.
Traders have piled into the company’s
credit-default swaps in recent months as Oracle’s massive AI-related spending spree, its central role in a web of interrelated deals and its weaker credit grades
compared with players such as Microsoft or Alphabet have made the
swap contracts the market’s preferred way to bet against the AI boom.
Meanwhile Goldman’s trading desk saw a
pickup in shorting across macro products including exchange-traded funds,
custom baskets and futures. The desk also flagged poor liquidity, with S&P
500 top-of-book depth slipping below $5 million versus a one-year average of
$11.5 million, a factor that may be magnifying stock-market moves.
Nvidia
Wasn’t Enough to Quell AI Fear: Evening Briefing Americas - Bloomberg
Delayed September report shows U.S. economy added
119,000 jobs, more than expected; unemployment rate at 4.4%
Published Thu, Nov 20 2025 8:31 AM EST
The U.S. economy added substantially more
jobs than expected in September, according to a long-awaited report Thursday
from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Nonfarm payrolls increased by
119,000 in the month, up from the 4,000 jobs lost in August following a
downward revision. The Dow Jones consensus estimate for September was 50,000.
The July total also was revised down to 72,000, a decrease of 7,000 from the
prior release.
In addition to the headline jobs number,
the BLS said the unemployment rate edged higher to 4.4%, the highest it’s been
since October 2021.
Average hourly earnings increased 0.2% for
the month and 3.8% from a year ago, compared to respective forecasts for 0.3%
and 3.7%.
The report ends a data drought on the
labor market that began in early September and continued through the record
44-day government shutdown. Agencies including the BLS, the Bureau of Economic
Analysis and others were prohibited from collecting or releasing data during
the period.
This was the first BLS jobs report since
the count for August that was released Sept. 5.
Trump tariff hikes hit US August imports, delayed
data shows
November 19, 2025
President Donald Trump's tariff hikes on
dozens of trading partners hit US imports in August, according to a Wednesday
report delayed by a record government shutdown that ended last week.
The 43-day stoppage had paused
publications of federal economic data ranging from inflation numbers to retail
sales, although reports are starting to trickle out again -- with key September
employment figures due Thursday.
In August, the overall US trade deficit
narrowed more than analysts expected, reaching $59.6 billion on a notable drop
in goods imports.
"New trade policy changes came online
in August," including tariff hikes targeting dozens of US trading
partners, said KPMG senior economist Meagan Schoenberger.
"Wholesalers drained inventories to
compensate for lower imports," she added in a note.
Imports declined 5.1 percent to $340.4
billion, with goods imports decreasing $18.6 billion. Among sectors that saw
pullbacks were industrial supplies and materials, alongside consumer products.
Exports edged up 0.1 percent to $280.8
billion due to an uptick in services, but the value of goods exports similarly
fell.
Trade flows have been heavily swayed this
year by President Donald Trump's fast-changing tariff policies, with importers
rushing to stock up on inventory ahead of planned hikes in duties.
"We expect continued uncertainty
because of ongoing legal challenges and trade negotiations," Schoenberger
added.
She flagged that the United States still
has many national security-related investigations underway, which could lead to
new tariffs, and potential exemptions in the pipeline.
These "could lead to new rounds of
stocking up and draining inventories," she said.
Since returning to the presidency, Trump
has imposed fresh duties on various economies, including so-called
"reciprocal" tariffs on virtually all US trading partners over
practices that Washington deems unfair.
Trump also engaged in a tit-for-tat
tariffs escalation with China, the world's second biggest economy, with rates
reaching prohibitive triple-digit levels in April -- snarling trade.
Among countries, the US goods deficit with
Canada shrank in August, as did that with China.
Trump tariff hikes
hit US August imports, delayed data shows
In other news.
Super Creepy ‘The World Ahead 2026’ Magazine Cover
Published By The Economist Shows They Expect War, Pestilence And Financial
Collapse Next Year
There is one magazine that represents the
interests of the global elite more than any other. It is known as “The
Economist”, and each year it puts out an issue that is dedicated to what is
coming in the year ahead. As we have seen so many times before, these
issues tend to be alarmingly accurate. The reason why they are so
accurate is because the ultra-wealthy elite have an enormous amount of
influence over the course of human events. If they are absolutely
determined to make something happen, there is a good chance that it is going to
happen. Ominously, it appears that they are anticipating a great deal of
global chaos in 2026.
The Economist has been around since 1843,
but it has never had a very large readership among the general population.
Ultimately, it is a publication by the
elite and for the elite.
According to Wikipedia, it has editorial offices all over the
planet but it is primarily based in the city of London…
Many of the wealthiest families in Europe
are among the shareholders of the company, and Sir Evelyn Robert de Rothschild
was actually the chairman from the early
1970s to the late 1980s…
More
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
NYC’s
‘Madoff of landlords’ defaults on $170M loans, faces foreclosure on 35
Manhattan properties: suits
By Peter Senzamici Published Nov. 19, 2025 Updated Nov.
19, 2025, 2:24 p.m. ET
New
York City’s “Bernie
Madoff of landlords” has defaulted on nearly $170 million in loans — and is
facing foreclosure on a whopping 35 or so Manhattan properties, new court
records show.
Steven
Croman, a longtime notorious landlord and convicted fraudster — who
did a stint on Rikers Island more than a decade ago — is facing
another reckoning, but this time in civil court.
A
bevy of lawsuits filed recently filed against Croman in Manhattan Supreme Court
claim he is in default on $168 million worth of real estate loans.
Croman
initially took the loans from New York Community Bank, then to Flagstar
Bank after
a 2022 merger,
but they were reassigned last month to a new lender Orange Owner
LLC.
They allege that
the real estate tycoon for months has failed to make payments at many of his
properties, and owes millions on some of the buildings.
Croman
held a massive portfolio of 140 buildings when he was busted in 2016 for filing
fraudulent paperwork to receive tens of millions in illicit bank loans,
according to prosecutors at the time.
Dubbed
“the Bernie Madoff of landlords” by then-state Attorney General Eric
Schneiderman, Croman was also accused of using a former
NYPD officer to harass tenants into leaving their units — allowing
him to jack up the rent on unwitting New Yorkers.
He pleaded
guilty to mortgage fraud in 2017, and spent a year behind bars on Rikers
Island.
Last
week, Crain’s
reported that
Croman was being sued by Orange Owner for allegedly defaulting on a
total of $71.5 million in loans tied to five different buildings.
But
the amount Croman is alleged to be in default has since grown by nearly $100
million, according to the now-20 lawsuits filed this month.
Those
include a $12.4 million loan at 209 E. 25th St., a 44-unit building in Kips Bay
where rents can reach nearly $5,500 a month, the bank claimed.
Croman
allegedly fell two months behind on his mortgage payments on that property,
totaling $493,845 — with over half due to late fees and other charges, the bank
claimed in an October notice.
The
lawsuit also demands that Croman repay the full $10.37 million mortgage on
346 E. 18th St. in Gramercy Park, where rents range from $7,500 to nearly
$10,000 a month.
Croman
allegedly fell behind on his October loan payment on that property, owing
$362,332 with late fees, filings claim.
More
NYC's 'Madoff of landlords' Steven Croman defaults on $170M loans: suits | New York Post
Covid-19
Corner
This
section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Malaysia suspends rare earths, tin mining operations after river
water turns blue
Published Thu, Nov 20 2025 12:44 AM EST
Malaysia has suspended operations at
a rare earth site and two tin mines in western Perak
state following an investigation into complaints that a stretch of a
major river had turned bright blue, the natural resources and
environment ministry said.
Minister Johari Abdul Ghani told parliament Wednesday that
authorities had launched a probe after public reports
about discolored water in a part of the Perak River, the
second-longest on the Malaysian peninsula.
Initial investigations found discharges at
the rare earths mining site, operated by MCRE Resources Sdn
Bhd, which matched the color of the water in the river, Johari
said.
Radiation readings at the site were also found to be as high as 13
becquerels, far above the 1 becquerel limit permitted under the
project’s initial environmental impact assessment report, he added.
“The investigation is now focusing on the type of chemicals used
in the mining process and whether it is consistent with the
information that has been reported to the authorities,” Johari said.
MCRE did not immediately respond to a request for comment about
Johari’s remarks.
According to its website, MCRE operates Malaysia’s
pioneer rare earths mining project, using a method known as
in-situ leaching, with technology shared by Chinese rare earth firms.
Malaysia, which has an estimated 16 million tons
of rare earths deposits, has been seeking to capitalize on
growing global demand for the minerals, but lacks the technological know-how to
mine and process them.
It has been in talks with China, the world’s leader
in rare earths mining and processing, on a potential
refinery, and last month signed a deal with the United States on rare earths development.
In a separate statement on Wednesday, the ministry said it had
issued suspension orders to MCRE as well as
two tin mining companies after inspections found they
were not complying with regulations related to effluent discharge,
erosion and sediment control, and chemical management.
The suspensions were made following complaints of pollution at
several rivers in Perak, the ministry said.
Malaysia suspends
rare earths, tin mining operations after river water turns blue
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt Clocks
(usdebtclock.org)
Another
weekend and with Nvidia’s “magic” undone, a treacherous trading week lies ahead
for stocks. A gloomy year-end Christmas retail season now looks likely, even if
the US central bank cuts its key interest rate next month. Charles Dickens “best
of times”, is fast turning into “the
worst of times”. Have a great weekend everyone.
The function of entrepreneurs is to reform or revolutionize the
pattern of production by exploiting an invention or, more generally, an untried
technological possibility for producing a new commodity or producing an old one
in a new way, by opening up a new source of supply of materials or a new outlet
for products, by reorganizing an industry and so on.
Joseph A. Schumpeter
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