Baltic
Dry Index. 1966 -17 Brent
Crude 65.07
Spot
Gold 4013 U S 2
Year Yield 3.60 -0.01
US
Federal Debt. 38.007 trillion
US
GDP 30.545 trillion
"It
is always the best policy to speak the truth, unless of course, you are an
exceptionally good liar."
Jerome
K. Jerome, 19th century English novelist.
As the US government
shutdown enters its second month, US stocks bubble on, led by the Great AI dot
con 2.0 bubble. Party on like it’s still 1998-1999 all over again.
Except it isn’t. Under
Trump’s Republicans, the USA is charging into new federal debt at a rate of
about three trillion dollars a year. That wasn’t true in 1998-1999. Nor was the US government closed in 1998-1999
during dot con 1.0.
Today some 42 million
Americans are due to receive food stamps, aka SNAP, but it’s anyone’s guess if
that will happen.
If not, about half a
billion or more is about to get pulled out suddenly from the US food consumer
economy.
"How
did you go bankrupt?" Bill asked. "Two ways," Mike said.
"Gradually and then suddenly."
Ernest Hemingway, The Sun Also Rises.
Nasdaq
and S&P 500 close higher, thanks to Amazon, to cap off a strong week: Live
updates
Updated
Fri, Oct 31 2025 4:17 PM EDT
The Nasdaq Composite and
the S&P 500 rose
on Friday, boosted by shares of tech giant Amazon on the heels of its
strong quarterly results.
The
tech-heavy Nasdaq advanced 0.61% to finish the session at 23,724.96, while the
broad market index gained 0.26% to reach 6,840.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed
40.75 points higher, or 0.09%, to 47,562.87.
Amazon
shares rallied 9.6% after the e-commerce giant said its cloud
computing unit’s revenue increased 20% in the third quarter,
exceeding Wall Street’s estimates. The company’s CEO, Andy Jassy, said
that AWS is “growing at a pace we haven’t seen since 2022” and that AI and core
infrastructure are experiencing “strong” demand.
“AI
adoption is picking up, which makes the business investments in growing
computing power and functionality of Gemini worthwhile. This will be a key
metric going forward as we now have more than $600 billion in CAPEX spending
committed for next year,” Brian Mulberry, client portfolio manager at Zacks
Investment Management, told CNBC.
Those
on Wall Street bought up shares of other AI-related names Friday on the heels
of Amazon’s results. AI software firm Palantir rose 3%, while
leading AI player Oracle gained
2.2%.
“Investors
will be paying attention to how that spending comes back to each company in the
form of growing AI sales,” Mulberry said.
Supporting
the Nasdaq, streaming giant Netflix added
2.7% after the company announced a
10-for-1 stock split. Electric vehicle maker Tesla was also a winner, with
shares seeing a jump of 3.7%.
Friday
marked the end of a strong week, and month, for Wall Street. The S&P 500
gained 0.7% this week, while the Nasdaq and Dow climbed 2.2% and 0.8%.
October
— which has experienced some of the largest one-day losses in stock market
history — saw the S&P 500 climb 2.3%. The Nasdaq jumped 4.7%, and the
30-stock Dow advanced 2.5%. The Dow posted its sixth positive month in a row
for the first time since 2018.
Stock
market today: Live updates
Trump
Blocked by Courts in Bid to Cut Off Food Aid
October 31, 2025 at 9:23 PM GMT
Two federal judges rejected the Trump administration’s argument that it
must suspend food-aid benefits for tens of millions of Americans during the
government shutdown, ruling the move to be likely unlawful. US officials must
use contingency funding to at least partially keep the program operational, the
courts said.
About 42 million Americans face the prospect of seeing
their food assistance cut off under the Supplemental
Nutrition Assistance Program, despite billions of dollars in alternative
funding that appear to be set aside to maintain it during the budget impasse.
The shutdown, now among the longest ever, stems from
Democratic demands that Republicans lift a deadline that will effectively cut
off healthcare access for millions of Americans. The GOP insists a “clean”
budget should be passed before any talk of deadlines. The Trump administration
meanwhile has said the shutdown ties its hands with regard to SNAP, in that
tapping the alternate funds would be illegal. This however contradicts its own
pre-shutdown plans—since deleted from a government website—saying SNAP can
continue.
Democrats contend the food assistance crisis is
actually Trump using the threat of ending food aid for millions as leverage to
force an end to the shutdown—without agreeing to their healthcare demands.
Chuck Schumer, the Senate minority leader, accused the president of “weaponizing hunger.”
Wall
Street’s bull market got fresh fuel at end of
a month that’s lived up to its volatile reputation, with optimism about
earnings outweighing worries about a rally that’s heavily concentrated on tech giants.
Following a pause in the S&P 500’s nearly $17 trillion surge, the gauge
climbed on solid outlooks from Amazon and Apple. To be fair, not
every megacap gained Friday, and the iPhone maker’s advance sputtered as a
sales drop in China tempered excitement for what promises to be a busy holiday
season. Bonds steadied after a post-Federal Reserve rout. The dollar rose.
Trump Blocked by Courts in Bid to Cut Off Food Aid: Evening Briefing - Bloomberg
In commodities news,
the copper price reality of 2025 or a temporary blip?
Record
copper prices spark turmoil for green energy projects
31 October 2025
Record-setting copper prices have sparked turmoil
for wind and solar farm developers who face rising costs to build green energy projects.
Commodity analysts have warned that the cost of
manufacturing renewable technologies – which rely heavily on copper – will
surge after the industrial metal hit a record high on the London Metal
Exchange.
The price rose as high as $11,200 (£8,500) a ton on
Wednesday, extending its gains so far this year to more than 27pc. It is on
track for its best year since 2017.
Although prices fell from their peak on Thursday –
dipping to $11,183 a ton – they still remain elevated by historical standards.
Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at
Swedish bank SEB, said: “It will add costs to all [things] connected to
electricity and not the least all things connected to renewable energy, power
systems, transformers, EVs (electric vehicles).”
Liam Fitzpatrick, an analyst at Deutsche Bank,
warned that the surging price of copper had raised doubts among bosses about
the viability of some future green energy projects.
He said many attendees at the bank’s copper
conference last month admitted the surging price “does not support the
development of major new greenfield projects”.
Wind farms, solar panels and electric vehicles all rely heavily on copper cabling to connect to the national grid. Wind farms, for example,
use it for vital cables and transformers to transfer power.
RenewableUK, the body which represents the green
power sector, warned that copper demand was increasing and that more needed to
be done to keep prices low.
Ajai Ahluwalia, head of supply chain, said: “The
challenge is to take appropriate and timely actions, such as focussing on
recycling more copper from decommissioned assets, to maintain low costs for the
UK at a time when demand is growing worldwide.”
Copper prices have surged in a tumultuous year for
the metal where supplies from major mines in Chile, Africa and Indonesia have
been hit.
Kieran Tompkins, of Capital Economics, said: “The
all-time high in copper prices reflects a combination of several mine supply
shocks and geopolitics, as hopes of a more positive environment for global
copper demand have emerged alongside an apparent easing of US-China trade
tensions.”
Mr Tompkins added: “While these developments could
shift the supply-demand balance towards stronger prices than otherwise, mine
supply is still expected to improve next year.
More
Record copper prices spark turmoil for green energy projects
Next, a blip or are/have
young American’s running/run out of money?
Kraft
Heinz CEO Warns of Worst Consumer Sentiment in Decades
October 30, 2025
(Bloomberg) -- Kraft Heinz Co. lowered its sales
outlook as its chief executive officer said that the feeling of US shoppers has
fallen to historic a low.
“We now have one of the worst consumer sentiments we
have seen in decades,” CEO Carlos Abrams-Rivera said on a call with analysts
Wednesday.
The company now expects full-year organic net sales
to be down 3% to 3.5%. Previously it projected them to be down 1.5% to 3.5%.
Kraft Heinz cited slower growth in emerging markets and “pressure” in US
retail, while also reducing its profit outlook.
Shares of Kraft Heinz fell as much as 4.3% on
Wednesday. The stock had declined 17% this year through Tuesday’s close,
compared with a 17% rise in the S&P 500.
In prepared remarks, the CEO said that higher prices
from inflation and expected headwinds from curtailed food stamp funding were
creating a “tough environment” for US shoppers. “We see these pressures as
persisting beyond the fourth quarter, leading to a longer path to consumer
recovery.”
Other big packaged-food companies have also pointed
to pressure on US shoppers, particularly in low-income households. Mondelez
International Inc. said Tuesday that squeezed consumers are focusing on buying essentials, rather
than snacks. But analysts have also said that these companies make the kinds of
processed foods Americans are moving away from and toward healthier
alternatives.
---- The food industry faces some specific
headwinds, including higher ingredient costs, the impact of weight loss drugs
and the expected cut-off in
food stamp aid for 42
million Americans on Saturday, if the government shutdown continues.
“The government shutdown going forward will not help
with the confidence of the consumer,” Mondelez CEO Dirk Van De Put said on an
earnings call Wednesday.
Kraft Heinz CEO Warns of Worst Consumer Sentiment in Decades
Chipotle
stock plunges 13% as chain lowers sales forecast, says younger diners are
cutting back
October 30, 2025
Chipotle Mexican Grill on Wednesday reported
quarterly revenue that fell short of expectations and cut its same-store sales
forecast for the third straight quarter.
Shares of the company plunged 13% in extended
trading.
Chipotle is expecting its full-year same-store sales
to shrink by a low-single digit percentage in fiscal 2025. That's a
big change from February, when the burrito chain was projecting same-store
sales would grow by a low- to mid-single digit percentage.
CEO Scott Boatwright said the company is seeing
"consistent macroeconomic pressures." Traffic fell by 0.8%, the
third straight quarter of declines.
After the chain outperformed the broader restaurant
industry in 2024, the sluggish consumer environment finally hit its restaurants this year. Chipotle's customer base skews higher income, so it was
insulated from the pullback in spending from low-income consumers that
fast-food chains were reporting last year.
But now Chipotle is seeing consumers across all
income cohorts visit less frequently. Consumers who make less than $100,000,
who account for roughly 40% of the company's customer base, have further pulled
back their spending, Boatwright said. He added that the group is dining out
less often due to concerns about the economy and inflation.
Customers between the ages of 25 and 35 years old
are particularly challenged, he said on the company's earnings call.
"We tend to skew younger and slightly
over-indexed to this group relative to the broader restaurant industry,"
Boatwright said.
He cited headwinds like unemployment, increased
student loan repayments and slower real wage growth accounting for inflation,
which are hurting that particular group of consumers.
"We're not losing that customer. They're just
coming less often," Boatwright said.
---- "While we did see encouraging results as
we accelerated our marketing spend and rolled out carne asada and red
chimichurri, our underlying trends remain challenged throughout the quarter and
into October," CFO Adam Rymer said.
Boatwright stood by the chain's overall value
proposition, saying that it would not turn to discounting to bring back
customers. However, he acknowledged that consumers are lumping the chain in
with other fast-casual competitors, whose average prices are closer to $15 per
entree than Chipotle's roughly $10 price point.
To revive traffic growth, Chipotle is focusing on
its in-restaurant execution, marketing, digital experience and menu innovation,
according to Boatwright.
Looking to 2026, Chipotle anticipates that it will
open 350 to 370 new locations. That target includes 10 to 15 international restaurants operated by partners, as the company aims to expand globally.
Last month, Chipotle announced a joint venture with
SPC Group, a Korea-based restaurant operator. It has also signed development
deals with operators in the Middle East and Latin America.
Chipotle stock plunges 13% as chain lowers sales forecast, says younger
diners are cutting back
In other news, Xi
Lets Trump “win”. But outside of a deranged White House, the world is only too
aware of who “won” and the changing reality.
With Trump’s
Republican led USA now wracking up new debt at about three trillion dollars a
year, the dollar reserve standard is doomed, although no one yet knows how, or
with what to replace it.
China
emerges as US ‘peer rival’ at Xi Jinping-Donald Trump summit
Beijing shows it
can force Washington to compromise on trade issues
30 October 2025
China’s President Xi Jinping sought to cement a
personal connection with his mercurial American counterpart when he met Donald
Trump to hammer out a trade war ceasefire this week.
Xi found common ground with Trump’s “Maga” agenda,
which parallels the Communist party’s own ambitions of restoring China’s past
glory, known as the “great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation”.
“I always believe that China’s development should go
hand in hand with your vision to make America great again,” the Chinese
president told Trump at the summit in South Korea on Thursday, their first
in-person meeting in six years.
But behind the niceties, the change in the balance
of power between the two men was unmistakable. Unlike nearly 10 years ago, when
Trump’s first trade offensive caught Beijing by surprise, this time a better
prepared and economically more powerful China has been able to fight its once
far mightier opponent to a standstill.
Since Trump announced his “liberation day” tariffs
in April, Beijing has on at least three occasions blocked Washington from
carrying out punitive measures and forced it back to the negotiating table.
The first clash came when Trump increased reciprocal
tariffs on China to 145 per cent. Beijing matched these and eventually forced
Washington to suspend the levies.
Then the two sides clashed over China’s export
controls on rare earths, the production and refining of which it dominates. The
rules threatened to shut down US industry and led to another round of talks.
This month, after Washington extended export
controls on semiconductors to thousands of subsidiaries of Chinese companies,
Beijing announced sweeping new controls on rare earths that again had the US
pressing for a truce.
Washington is accepting “that it is now dealing with
a peer rival capable of imposing material economic harm on it — a relatively
new position for the US and a development which, at least to us, confirms
China’s ascendancy to global economic superpower status”, said BNP Paribas in
an analyst note.
More
China emerges as US ‘peer rival’ at Xi Jinping-Donald Trump summit
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
On
tariffs, the Supreme Court can’t do what Congress won’t
The forthcoming ruling on Trump’s import duties will not stop him
resorting to other methods
Published Oct 30 2025
This week saw a rare and
extraordinary thing: congressional Republicans standing up to Donald Trump on
trade. Five of their senators voted with the Democrats to oppose Trump’s 50 per
cent tariffs on Brazil, and four to overturn his import duties on Canada, both
among his most ridiculous acts of protectionism in a crowded field.
The votes will have zero
effect. The initiative will fail in the House of Representatives, whose cowed
Republican Speaker Mike Johnson habitually does Trump’s bidding. They would
need two-thirds majorities to overcome a presidential veto in any case.
As I discuss with trade
law professor Jennifer Hillman in the FT’s Economics Show podcast, the Supreme
Court will next week hear Trump’s appeal against lower courts’ rulings that his
routine use of “international emergency” tariffs usurps congressional authority.
But it apparently takes the judicial branch to defend the legislature’s
prerogative, because lawmakers — and very particularly the Capitol Hill
Republicans — are too scared to assert it themselves.
Trump’s second term is
showing the limits of the courts in restraining the use (and abuse) of
executive power. Even if the Supreme Court ignores Trump’s bullying — he is
warning them about causing economic ruin and threatening to attend the hearing
— and upholds the lower courts’ rulings, it won’t necessarily restrain him for
long. By using other tariff powers designed to prevent balance of payments
crises, promote national security and punish unfair trade, Trump can resurrect
much of the existing wall of duties.
Congress could also act
to restrain these, but again it would need broad bipartisan support to overcome
a veto. The judiciary cannot substitute for the legislature.
The feebleness of the
congressional Republican caucus regarding Trump isn’t news. But it’s
particularly egregious given how emphatically the US constitution gives the
legislature control over trade. It’s right there in Article I, which states
that Congress has the power to “lay and collect Taxes, Duties, Imposts and
Excises”, and “to regulate Commerce with foreign Nations.”
More recently Congress
delegated some power to the executive, notably in the Trade Act of 1974. But it
still required the presidency to obtain specific authority to negotiate deals,
sometimes micromanaged their content and was quite happy to hold up or refuse
ratification even after signature.
In 2007, Congress forced
then-president George W Bush to include some most un-Republican commitments to
promoting labour and environmental standards in trade deals. But in those days,
trade policy was largely conducted through formal legally binding preferential
trade agreements. Aside from updating an existing trade deal with Mexico and
Canada in his first term, Trump prefers to cast around for whatever emergency
executive powers might be lying about, which requires Congress actively to
restrain him. This it has dismally failed to do.
----These days, a
metaphorical MRI of the Republican congressional caucus shows virtually no
remaining evidence of a spine. Jennifer Hillman has helped to write a brief to
the Supreme Court on behalf of members of Congress, which lays out the
absurdity of the administration’s argument. For the justices to agree with
Trump requires them to argue with a straight face that the word “regulate” can
have entirely different meanings within the same phrase in a particular
statute. And yet while the brief was signed by more than 200 Democratic
senators and representatives, only one single solitary Republican put her name
to it — Lisa Murkowski, senator from Alaska, who is in any case contemplating
leaving the Republican caucus and becoming independent.
Other court briefs
opposing the Trump position are signed by a grand list of Republican
policymakers from decades past, including former senators. But it seems
Republican bravery correlates strongly with current or incipient retirement.
Two of the five Republicans who voted against the Brazil tariffs this week,
former Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell and Thom Tillis of North
Carolina, have already announced they will not stand for re-election. The vast
majority of their colleagues have stayed meekly silent.
Since he was elected,
only two forces have really caused Trump to recoil from his tariff campaign:
the stock markets, which dropped rapidly after he announced the “liberation
day” tariffs on April 2, and the threat of retaliation from China, notably its restrictions
over rare earth exports. The founding fathers who wrote the US constitution
probably didn’t envisage New York equity traders and the Chinese Communist
party emerging as the most effective checks and balances on US executive power,
and yet here we are.
Make no mistake: the
Supreme Court decision on Trump’s tariffs is a hugely important moment, with
implications for executive power way beyond this particular case. But the
judiciary cannot by itself return trade policy to the realm of constitutional
normality. That relies on the reassertion of authority by Congress to which
power over tariffs was originally given and which it has wilfully allowed to
slip away.
On tariffs, the Supreme Court can’t do what
Congress won’t
Technology
Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
This weekend
something different.
Guided missiles targeting tumor cells open a new route to combat
cancer
A
major European clinical research event in oncology gives a boost to
antibody–drug conjugates, treatments that work like a Trojan horse, delivering
chemotherapy to the interior of malignant cells
27 October 2025
If more than half a century ago, science
looked expectantly at the potential of chemotherapy to combat cancer; or 15
years ago, oncologists did the same with immunotherapy, which energized the
immune system’s own defenses to attack tumor cells; now the spotlight has
turned to an innovative treatment that is reaping promising results:
antibody–drug conjugates (ADCs), treatments that function like a Trojan horse, delivering chemotherapy to the interior of tumor
cells to destroy them. The European Society for Medical Oncology (ESMO)
Congress, Europe’s main meeting for clinical cancer research, was held last
week in Berlin, and it has given a boost to a new generation of these precision
missiles. At the event, there were study presentations that demonstrated ADCs’
potential in several types of breast cancer and at various stages, not just
metastatic.
These Trojan horses are formed by an
antibody that targets a kind of antenna on the surface of tumor cells. These
molecules carry a hidden chemotherapy payload, and when they reach their
target, they bind to those receptors and release the entire drug into the tumor
cells to selectively kill them. “ADCs are here to stay. It’s a validated line
of research and it is like a highway along which we can continue to advance,” noted Aleix
Prat, director of the Clinic Barcelona Comprehensive Cancer Center. Other
studies presented at the event showed that this therapeutic approach also has
potential for other tumors, such as ovarian, endometrial, and pancreatic
cancers.
In breast cancer, these precision
missiles have shaken up the prognosis of the most aggressive tumors. They
entered the therapeutic arsenal more than a decade ago, but new generations of
these drugs are gaining more ground. Three years ago, for example, research
demonstrated that one of the new ADCs, trastuzumab-deruxtecan, increased the
survival rate of women with HER2+ tumors (this subgroup accounts for 20% of all
breast cancers) in metastatic stages. And a new study presented this year at ESMO and
published simultaneously in the prestigious New England Journal of
Medicine (NEJM) has also shown that another of these new precision
missiles, sacituzumab govitecan, is more effective than conventional
chemotherapy in treating triple-negative breast cancer (the most aggressive
type, affecting 15% of patients) in advanced stages: median progression-free
survival was almost 10 months in those treated with this Trojan horse (in those
treated with chemotherapy alone it was seven months).
Javier Cortés, director of the
International Breast Cancer Center in Barcelona and author of this research,
asserts that, with this study, science confirms that when breast cancer
metastasis appear; that is, when malignant cells have spread to other parts of
the body, these drugs are positioned as the first treatment option. “This study
adds another twist and improves the prognosis for these patients. Little by
little, we are making slow but steady progress. At this congress,
immunoconjugates have positioned themselves as the most innovative, the
hottest, and the most spectacular,” notes the doctor, who is also scientific
director of the IOB Institute of Oncology Madrid.
More
Guided missiles targeting tumor cells open a new route to combat cancer |
Health | EL PAÍS English
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
Exponent
Calculator
Enter
values into any two of the input fields to solve for the third.
This
weekend’s music diversion. A long forgotten Berlin genius. Approx. 10 minutes.
Johann Christoph Schultze (1733-1813) -
Concerto in G major
Johann Christoph
Schultze (1733-1813) - Concerto in G major
Finally,
more on that WeWork AI bubble. Approx. 25 minutes.
Is
AI’s Circular Financing Inflating a Bubble?
Is AI’s Circular
Financing Inflating a Bubble?
"The more corrupt the state, the more numerous the
laws."
Tacitus, 55-130 BC
