Special Update 22/11/2025 Stocks In Turmoil. A Bleak Christmas?

Baltic Dry Index. 2275 +05         Brent Crude 62.56

Spot Gold 4063              U S 2 Year Yield 3.51 -0.04 

US Federal Debt. 38.225 trillion

US GDP 30.591 trillion

This is the way things are, and the Game has been so successful that, like everything, it will get more and more successful until it stops being successful.

George Goodman, aka Adam Smith, The Money Game. 1968.

In the global stock casinos, chaos and confusion. Has the AI bubble ended or is this merely another pause?

But in whipsaw trading markets, few punters make money, most just pile up losses.

A key week is coming up next week.

Dow closes about 500 points higher in big market rebound after steep sell-off this week

Updated Fri, Nov 21 20254:17 PM EST

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rebounded on Friday after New York Federal Reserve President John Williams suggested the central bank could cut interest rates yet again this year.

The blue-chip index gained 493.15 points, or 1.08%, to close at 46,245.41. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.88% to settle at 22,273.08, while the S&P 500 finished 0.98% higher at 6,602.99.

“I view monetary policy as being modestly restrictive, although somewhat less so than before our recent actions,” Williams said in remarks for a speech in Santiago, Chile. “Therefore, I still see room for a further adjustment in the near term to the target range for the federal funds rate to move the stance of policy closer to the range of neutral, thereby maintaining the balance between the achievement of our two goals.”

The comments by a notable Fed member like Williams signaled to investors that central bank leadership is likely to lower its benchmark overnight borrowing rate at its upcoming December meeting. This led traders to raise bets that the Fed would, in fact, cut next month for the third time in 2025.

Fed funds futures are currently pricing in a more than 70% chance of a quarter percentage point cut, a spike from the less than 40% likelihood priced in the day before, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Stocks that could benefit the most from lower rates, which may spur consumer spending, led the market comeback. These included Home Depot, Starbucks and McDonald’s. Investors hope easier monetary policy can revive a sluggish economy and justify historically high tech-stock valuations.

“We think there definitely should be a cut,” Jay Hatfield, Infrastructure Capital Advisors founder and CEO, said in an interview with CNBC. “It’s going to depend on the next … employment report. It would have to be pretty weak, I think, to convince people to cut.”

Wall Street is coming off a brutal market reversal in the last session. The Dow at one point on Thursday rose more than 700 points as investors cheered a blockbuster Nvidia fiscal third-quarter earnings report. The benchmark, along with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite, ended the day sharply lower as the Nvidia rally fizzled and worries grew that the Fed would stand pat in December on rates. The AI darling finished with a more than 3% decline.

Even with Friday’s moves, the three major averages still posted big losses this week. The S&P 500 finished down about 2% week to date, as did the 30-stock Dow. The Nasdaq shed 2.7% in the period.

When speaking about the recent pressure, Hatfield believes that “this is a normal, seasonal, post-earnings valuation pullback,” adding that “the bubbles portion of the market [is] getting annihilated.”

That includes bitcoin, which dropped more than 2% Friday, putting its week-to-date losses at nearly 11%. The cryptocurrency has fallen to levels not seen since April as investors have pulled back on their risk-taking in the market.

“The only real question is, ‘Where do we bottom out at?’” Hatfield said about the broader market.

Stock market news for Nov. 21, 2025

Tech stocks wrap big losing week as AI names get rocked after Nvidia earnings

Published Fri, Nov 21 2025 12:36 PM EST Updated Fri, Nov 21 2025 6:11 PM EST

Even Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang couldn’t save the tech and artificial intelligence trade this week.

The chip giant’s talismanic leader trumpeted “off the charts” chip sales and dismissed talk of an “AI bubble,” and for a while, the tide lifted all boats.

“There’s been a lot of talk about an AI bubble,” Huang said during an earnings call this week. “From our vantage point, we see something very different.”

The buzz from the blowout report quickly reversed, sending the AI winners deeply into the red — and few beneficiaries were left unscathed.

Every member of the Magnificent 7, except for Alphabet, posted a losing week, with Nvidia, Amazon and Microsoft staring down the biggest losses.

Amazon and Microsoft led the group’s drop lower, falling 6% and 7% this week, respectively. Meanwhile, Alphabet gained 8%. The search giant is also the only megacap of the group on pace for November gains thanks to a boost from the launch of Gemini 3.

Oracle, which is another major Nvidia customer, slumped about 11%. The chipmaker also supplies major model developers such as OpenAI and Anthropic.

Chip stocks have also declined amid the broader tech market turmoil. Advanced Micro Devices and Micron slumped more than 16% each, while Marvell Technology dropped 10%. Quantum computing stocks IonQ and D-Wave fell more than 11% and 13%, respectively.

CoreWeave, which buys and rents out Nvidia’s chips in data centers, initially soared on the chipmaker’s earnings report, but swiftly reversed course. The company’s stock took a 7% blow this week.

AI fever was cooling in the runup to Nvidia’s earnings report on Wednesday, and investors looked to the print to alleviate fears that the AI bubble was on shaky ground. Since the launch of ChatGPT in late 2022, the stock has helped power the market to new all-time highs.

But concerns have mounted in recent weeks as tech stocks hit stretched valuations.

Major investors, including Bridgewater’s Ray Dalio told CNBC Thursday that the market is definitely in a bubble.

More

AI, tech stocks wrap big losing week after Nvidia earnings

Away from whiplash in the US stock casinos, the real US economy is buckling.

‘Anxious’ shoppers keep scaling back and hunting for deals, retailers say

November 21, 2025

As economists continue to seek clarity on how Americans are faring after the federal government shutdown paused data collection, the country’s largest retailers offered a window this week into the consumer mood in the lead-up to the most crucial spending season of the year.

Target, Walmart, Home Depot, Lowe’s and TJX — the parent company of TJ Maxx, Marshalls and HomeGoods — all described a cautious consumer, with tariffs, political tensions, still-high interest rates, an uncertain job market and the rising cost of essentials bogging down their outlook on the economy. But they continue to spend as the holiday season approaches, stretching their budgets to afford groceries and essentials and willing to splurge if the deal is right and the product is new and on-trend.

Analysts also had a caveat: The future could get murkier after the holidays as more tariff-induced price increases are likely to be passed on to consumers.

Consumers are “stable on the necessities but hesitant on big spending,” said Bryan Hayes, an analyst at Zacks Investment Research. “This cautionary theme of spending will certainly linger into early next year and likely midway through.”

More

‘Anxious’ shoppers keep scaling back and hunting for deals, retailers say

Consumer Sentiment Fell in November, Michigan Survey Shows

The survey’s headline index dropped to 51, hovering near one of the lowest levels in the monthly poll’s history

Nov. 21, 2025 10:25 am ET

Consumer sentiment slid in November compared with last month, the University of Michigan’s monthly survey found.

The survey’s headline index dropped to 51, hovering near one of the lowest levels in the monthly poll’s history. That final reading was up a hair from the preliminary November figure, 50.3, published two weeks ago, but down from 53.6 recorded in October. It was in line with the number that economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had forecast.

Consumers, who have faced above-trend inflation for nearly half a decade, remain frustrated with high and rising prices, survey director Joanne Hsu said. Through the first part of November, they also were contending with a record-long government shutdown, which disrupted food aid, air travel and many federal workers’ paychecks.

Economic concerns also extended to the job market, which logged a rise in unemployment to 4.4% in September despite net job creation of 119,000. Federal stats agencies are still catching up on releasing more-recent numbers as work resumes after the shutdown.

Looking at the trend since the spring, many economists now estimate that employers are adding roughly just enough new roles to keep joblessness in check—a significant cooldown from the jobseeker’s market that prevailed earlier in the decade. Long, frustrating job searches and headlines about large-scale corporate layoffs are coloring views of a labor market far harder to navigate than it was a couple years ago.

Recent consumer surveys have portrayed a fault line in Americans’ sentiment: Those with large stock portfolios are feeling far more positive than people with fewer holdings, because a roaring market has fueled significant gains for investors.

But even those good feelings could face a test amid a rough November on Wall Street. The S&P 500 is down about 5% from a recent late-October high, creaking under anxiety about whether massive investments in artificial intelligence will pay off for the economy.

More

Consumer Sentiment Fell in November, Michigan Survey Shows - WSJ

In other news.

Nvidia sent a strong signal on AI infrastructure — but is it a bubble barometer?

Published Thu, Nov 20 2025 3:50 AM EST Updated Thu, Nov 20 2025 4:49 AM EST

Nvidia reported strong earnings and forecasts Wednesday, in what analysts saw as a clear signal for continued spending on AI infrastructure. Less clear, however, is whether the results can dispel fears of an AI bubble in markets. 

Fears have grown in recent months that massive investment in AI by major tech companies could outpace realistic returns, leading some industry insiders and analysts to predict an AI bubble. 

While Nvidia’s earnings are widely viewed as an important gauge of the AI industry’s health, some analysts warn that its performance doesn’t tell the whole story. 

“I think a lot of people will be relieved, but they really didn’t need to worry about Nvidia heading [into earnings] anyway,” Gil Luria, head of technology research at D.A. Davidson, told CNBC on Thursday.

The analyst noted that Nvidia’s customers, including Microsoft, Amazon, Google and Meta, had already telegraphed plans to accelerate spending on AI chips, and that was reflected in Nvidia’s results. 

This strong demand has also been a boon for Nvidia-related chip stocks, with its key suppliers in Asia trading higher on Thursday. 

However, Luria said, “concern about [an AI bubble] isn’t an Nvidia problem. The concern is about companies raising a lot of debt to build data centers.”

Nvidia’s AI chips, also known as graphics processing units, are used in data centers to provide the computing power needed to train and run AI services. 

These data centers are often owned by specialized operators and major tech companies like Microsoft and Google, known as hyperscalers. As these companies prepare to meet growing AI demand, they’ve been financing data center roll-out with debt. 

“Any concerns about Nvidia were certainly laid to rest [with Nvidia’s earnings], but that doesn’t mean that we don’t need to keep an eye on companies lending or borrowing to build data centers,” Luria said.

The analyst described data centers as inherently speculative investments that could face a reckoning two or three years from now when the world reaches full capacity and the cycle rolls over.

Even so, he added, “Nvidia will keep selling chips one way or another.” 

AI chips vs. AI promise

Other analysts who spoke to CNBC drew a clear line in the sand between AI chip companies like Nvidia and downstream players, including hyperscalers and firms actually building AI models like Chat-GPT maker OpenAI. 

“Nvidia’s earnings are a strong signal of AI infrastructure spending, but they’re not a reliable gauge of whether AI economics are truly maturing across the industry,” said Billy Toh, regional head of retail research at CGS International Securities Singapore.

“To understand the broader industry’s stability, it’s more meaningful to look at actual adoption and monetization of AI services at companies like Microsoft, Adobe, and other enterprise platforms, where real customer demand and recurring revenue ultimately confirm whether the AI boom is sustainable,” he added.

In addition to concerns about hyperscalers taking on debt, AI developers such as OpenAI posting weak revenue relative to their heavy spending have been a source of unease for some investors.

That lack of revenue for AI companies has not been felt by Nvidia, which dominates advanced chips and chip software and has deep integration across the AI ecosystem, giving it pricing power and profitable demand.

“Even if many AI startups struggle, Nvidia still sells to hyperscalers, sovereign AI initiatives, and enterprises building core infrastructure,” Toh said.

“This dynamic helps justify its trillion-dollar market cap and why investors view it as the safest way to gain exposure to AI,” he said, though that protection will fade as the AI build-out phase slows.

More

Nvidia sent a strong signal on AI infrastructure — but is it a bubble barometer?

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

With a socialist tax rise budget coming on Wednesday, GB Plc looks headed into recession.

Manufacturing output plummets at fastest pace since pandemic

Thursday 20 November 2025 2:26 pm  |  Updated:  Thursday 20 November 2025 2:27 pm

Manufacturing output in the three months to November dropped at the fastest pace since the pandemic, a new survey has found. 

Researchers at the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) said that the balance reading for output volumes across industry was at the lowest level since the quarterly period to August 2020. 

The weighted balance reading stood at -30 per cent, compared to -16 per cent in the three months to November.

Output over the next three months is also set to decline at the same pace, the survey also indicated. 

The CBI’s industrial trends survey makes for devastating reading across Westminster as the Labour government has made growing the UK economy and turning the country into a “clean energy superpower” were central missions. 

The survey is especially bleak for the manufacturing sector given the tax burden is expected to become heavier after next week’s Budget. 

CBI analysts also said that total order books and export orders stood well below long-run averages. 

Stocks of finished goods were also above “adequate” levels, falling on figures from October. The data may provide extra evidence of firms front-loading investment and production in the first half of the year as owners looked to avoid suffering from tariff hits. 

Manufacturing sector ‘needs certainty’

In some more positive news for economists, expectations for average selling price inflation eased in November and stood in line with long-run averages. 

Weak growth highlighted in the data, coupled with signs of inflation pressures easing, adds to prospects of the Bank of England voting for an interest rate cut in December. 

But CBI economist Ben Jones said the data sends a warning to the Chancellor ahead of a difficult Budget. 

Jones said respondents flagged the uncertainty around upcoming fiscal measures as a key reason for a slowdown in purchases and investment. 

“Manufacturers face a challenging end to the year,” Jones said. 

“With the Budget now just days away, the Chancellor must provide much needed certainty and back the government’s growth mission rhetoric with pro-business policies.”

There is little in the way of Budget rumours that could spark hopes of a rebound for the UK’s manufacturing sector. 

Official data in recent months on production levels has been equally weak. 

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said last week production fell by 0.5 per cent in the third quarter of the year, dropping by as much as two per cent over the course of September alone. 

Part of the fall has been attributed to a freeze in production as a result of the cyber attack on Jaguar Land Rover. 

But further taxes are likely hamper businesses and depress growth over the coming months, business chiefs have warned. 

Manufacturing output plummets at fastest pace since pandemic

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.

Graphene-boosted plastic makes auto parts 20% stronger, 18% lighter

November 18, 2025

Glass-filled polypropylene is already a very commonly used plastic for automotive parts, but could it be improved? Well, yes. A new substance, Gratek, is claimed to make the plastic 20% stronger yet 18% lighter, thanks to the addition of graphene.

Widely hailed as a "wonder material," graphene takes the form of one-atom-thick sheets of carbon atoms linked to one another in a honeycomb pattern. Along with being the world's strongest human-made substance, it's also very flexible, stretchable and chemically stable, plus it exhibits high electrical and thermal conductivity.

It's no wonder, then, that Nello David Sansone – a post-doctoral researcher working in the University of Toronto’s Multifunctional Composites Manufacturing Laboratory – began investigating methods of integrating graphene nanoplatelets into glass-filled polypropylene. He ultimately developed a technique for doing so while working at auto parts manufacturer Axiom Group, in a partnership with the university.

In previous groups' attempts to incorporate graphene into automotive components, the material had a tendency to cluster during processing, thus concentrating mechanical stress in unwanted areas and leading to failure.

Sansone got around this problem via a proprietary technique which causes the nanoplatelets to bond only to the glass fibers within the polypropylene matrix, keeping them from clumping. Because the graphene strengthens the fibers, fewer of them need to be used, thus Gratek is approximately 20% stronger and 18% lighter than regular glass-filled polypropylene.

And it should be noted, the material is less than 1% graphene overall. Plus as an added bonus, due to the lower glass content in the plastic, it causes less wear and tear on the machines that are cutting and drilling it.

One potential limiting factor to Gratek is the fact that, because of the graphene in it, it's limited to being black in color. With that drawback in mind, Sansone has developed another material, Clatek, which utilizes clay-based halloysite nanotubes in place of the graphene nanoplatelets. It reportedly offers performance similar to that of Gratek, but it's white in color and can be dyed and painted.

Gratek is expected to be contracted to a major automobile manufacturer before the end of this year, while Clatek is expected to be commercially available within two years.

"It has shown real potential to make vehicles lighter, safer, and more sustainable," Sansone told us. "As for what’s next for me, I’m now working on commercializing another advanced material formulation, known as AegisX, through my start-up NanoMorphix, where we’re developing transparent and textile armor for military, defense, aerospace, and personal protection."

Sansone was recently the recipient of an award from Mitacs, a government-funded non-profit organization that seeks to foster technical innovation in Canada. Past recipients have developed technologies such as a towable crop-waste-to-biofuel converter, a computer-vision-based flight recorder, an augmented reality feedback system for athletes and a screw-drive amphibious robot.

Sources: Mitacs, Axiom Group

Graphene plastic makes car parts stronger and lighter

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

Exponent Calculator

Enter values into any two of the input fields to solve for the third.

Exponent Calculator

This weekend’s music diversion. Approx. 10 minutes.

Vivaldi. Oboe Concerto a minor RV461 - (Masmano)

Vivaldi. Oboe Concerto a minor RV461 - (Masmano) - YouTube

Next, forgotten British history, the world’s first modern computer. Approx. 9 minutes.

Colossus & Bletchley Park – Computerphile

Colossus & Bletchley Park - Computerphile

Finally, how GB beat the German night fighters.  Approx. 37 minutes.

British Engineers Examined German Night Fighter Radar — Then Realized the Luftwaffe...

British Engineers Examined German Night Fighter Radar — Then Realized the Luftwaffe... - YouTube

Somebody has to be on the other side.

George Goodman, aka Adam Smith. The Money Game. Why Are The Little People Always Wrong?

Nvidia’s Bubble Pops. Cockroach Season Lies Ahead.

Baltic Dry Index. 2270 +10        Brent Crude 62.65

Spot Gold  4046             US 2 Year Yield 3.55 -0.03  

US Federal Debt. 38.220 trillion

US GDP 31.589 trillion.

At the heart of capitalism is creative destruction.

Joseph A. Schumpeter

Is/has reality returned to the US stock casinos?  If so, US and global stock casinos have a lot further to fall to match the increasingly harsh reality of a real global economy heading into recession.

An increasingly spent out global consumer appears to be cutting back spending and debt drastically.

We will shortly find out where all the losses lie, who’s gone bust but hiding it, and who can no longer service their debt.

Asia markets track Wall Street’s staggering reversal in AI-related stocks

Published Thu, Nov 20 2025 6:45 PM EST

Asia-Pacific markets fell Friday, after U.S. tech stocks lost ground and investors’ hopes of a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve faded.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 tumbled 1.57% at the open, while the Topix index lost 0.72%.

Tech conglomerate SoftBank plunged more than 10%. Other tech stocks on the index fell, with Advantest losing more than 9%, Tokyo Electron retreating nearly 6%, Lasertec falling nearly 5%, and Renesas Electron down 1.95%.

Japan’s core inflation in October rose at its sharpest rate since July, in line with market estimates on Friday, supporting the case for interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan.

South Korea’s Kospi index plunged 4.09%, and the small-cap Kosdaq retreated 3.01%. Kospi’s heavyweights Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix tumbled as much as 4% and 9%, respectively.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell 1.3%.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell 1.88% at the open, while the Hang Seng Tech index was 2.33% lower. Tech major Baidu stumbled 6%, Xiaomi Corp declined 4.51%, and Tencent traded 2.25% lower.

Hang Seng auto stocks also took a hit. Chinese electric-vehicle maker BYD fell 2.68%, while Nio and Li Auto dropped nearly 6% and about 2%, respectively.

The mainland’s CSI 300 was down 1.13%.

India’s Nifty 50 was down 0.1%, while the BSE Sensex index opened 0.33% lower.

Meanwhile, bitcoin fell 0.91% to $85,550, hitting the lowest level in seven months. Ether hit its lowest since July, before recouping some losses and was last down 1.08% at $2,802.81.

Overnight in the U.S., Oracle and AMD were among the first AI plays to fall into the red on the session, followed by Nvidia, which reversed gains and closed nearly 3% lower.

Stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data renewed doubts about whether the central bank will lower its benchmark overnight rate. Traders were pricing roughly a 40% chance of a quarter-point cut next month, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, a setback for investors hoping for lower borrowing costs.

On Thursday stateside, the Nasdaq Composite fell 2.16%, down from a 2.6% advance at one point in the session.

Other major indexes also slipped, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.84%. The S&P 500 shed 1.56%, despite rising as much as 1.9% earlier in the day.

Asia markets track Wall Street's staggering reversal in AI-related stocks

When Nvidia Isn’t Enough to Dispel AI Bubble Fears

November 20, 2025 at 11:44 PM GMT

Well it wasn’t enough after all. Despite Nvidia’s big, beautiful outlook last night, markets on Thursday tumbled back to Earth, where fear of an artificial intelligence bubble waiting to pop still holds sway. Following Wednesday’s after-market party, the S&P 500 Index today sank 1.6% and the Nasdaq dropped 2.2%.

US equity multiples remain near levels seen in prior periods of exuberance, even after a pullback that’s pushing the S&P toward its worst November since, well, 2008. Questions around whether AI is generating enough revenue or profits to justify the massive spending on infrastructure continue to weigh on sentiment, said Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak + Co. And he’s not alone in his assessment.

“The Nvidia results, while positive, weren’t enough to dispel doubts around whether valuations had gotten too rich,” said Sameer Samana, head of global equities and real assets at Wells Fargo Investment Institute.

What You Need to Know Today

So what to do when the horizon looks increasingly dark? Hedge of course. Oracle, the once stodgy database giant (controlled by a Friend of Trump) that’s borrowed tens of billions of dollars and tethered its fortunes to the AI boom, is quickly emerging as the credit market’s barometer for risk.

Traders have piled into the company’s credit-default swaps in recent months as Oracle’s massive AI-related spending spree, its central role in a web of interrelated deals and its weaker credit grades compared with players such as Microsoft or Alphabet have made the swap contracts the market’s preferred way to bet against the AI boom.

Meanwhile Goldman’s trading desk saw a pickup in shorting across macro products including exchange-traded funds, custom baskets and futures. The desk also flagged poor liquidity, with S&P 500 top-of-book depth slipping below $5 million versus a one-year average of $11.5 million, a factor that may be magnifying stock-market moves.

Nvidia Wasn’t Enough to Quell AI Fear: Evening Briefing Americas - Bloomberg

Delayed September report shows U.S. economy added 119,000 jobs, more than expected; unemployment rate at 4.4%

Published Thu, Nov 20 2025 8:31 AM EST

The U.S. economy added substantially more jobs than expected in September, according to a long-awaited report Thursday from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 119,000 in the month, up from the 4,000 jobs lost in August following a downward revision. The Dow Jones consensus estimate for September was 50,000. The July total also was revised down to 72,000, a decrease of 7,000 from the prior release.

In addition to the headline jobs number, the BLS said the unemployment rate edged higher to 4.4%, the highest it’s been since October 2021.

Average hourly earnings increased 0.2% for the month and 3.8% from a year ago, compared to respective forecasts for 0.3% and 3.7%.

The report ends a data drought on the labor market that began in early September and continued through the record 44-day government shutdown. Agencies including the BLS, the Bureau of Economic Analysis and others were prohibited from collecting or releasing data during the period.

This was the first BLS jobs report since the count for August that was released Sept. 5.

Jobs report September 2025:

Trump tariff hikes hit US August imports, delayed data shows

November 19, 2025

President Donald Trump's tariff hikes on dozens of trading partners hit US imports in August, according to a Wednesday report delayed by a record government shutdown that ended last week.

The 43-day stoppage had paused publications of federal economic data ranging from inflation numbers to retail sales, although reports are starting to trickle out again -- with key September employment figures due Thursday.

In August, the overall US trade deficit narrowed more than analysts expected, reaching $59.6 billion on a notable drop in goods imports.

"New trade policy changes came online in August," including tariff hikes targeting dozens of US trading partners, said KPMG senior economist Meagan Schoenberger.

"Wholesalers drained inventories to compensate for lower imports," she added in a note.

Imports declined 5.1 percent to $340.4 billion, with goods imports decreasing $18.6 billion. Among sectors that saw pullbacks were industrial supplies and materials, alongside consumer products.

Exports edged up 0.1 percent to $280.8 billion due to an uptick in services, but the value of goods exports similarly fell.

Trade flows have been heavily swayed this year by President Donald Trump's fast-changing tariff policies, with importers rushing to stock up on inventory ahead of planned hikes in duties.

"We expect continued uncertainty because of ongoing legal challenges and trade negotiations," Schoenberger added.

She flagged that the United States still has many national security-related investigations underway, which could lead to new tariffs, and potential exemptions in the pipeline.

These "could lead to new rounds of stocking up and draining inventories," she said.

Since returning to the presidency, Trump has imposed fresh duties on various economies, including so-called "reciprocal" tariffs on virtually all US trading partners over practices that Washington deems unfair.

Trump also engaged in a tit-for-tat tariffs escalation with China, the world's second biggest economy, with rates reaching prohibitive triple-digit levels in April -- snarling trade.

Among countries, the US goods deficit with Canada shrank in August, as did that with China.

Trump tariff hikes hit US August imports, delayed data shows

In other news.

Super Creepy ‘The World Ahead 2026’ Magazine Cover Published By The Economist Shows They Expect War, Pestilence And Financial Collapse Next Year

November 17, 2025

There is one magazine that represents the interests of the global elite more than any other.  It is known as “The Economist”, and each year it puts out an issue that is dedicated to what is coming in the year ahead.  As we have seen so many times before, these issues tend to be alarmingly accurate.  The reason why they are so accurate is because the ultra-wealthy elite have an enormous amount of influence over the course of human events.  If they are absolutely determined to make something happen, there is a good chance that it is going to happen.  Ominously, it appears that they are anticipating a great deal of global chaos in 2026.

The Economist has been around since 1843, but it has never had a very large readership among the general population.

Ultimately, it is a publication by the elite and for the elite.

According to Wikipedia, it has editorial offices all over the planet but it is primarily based in the city of London…

Many of the wealthiest families in Europe are among the shareholders of the company, and Sir Evelyn Robert de Rothschild was actually the chairman from the early 1970s to the late 1980s…

More

Super Creepy 'The World Ahead 2026' Magazine Cover Published By The Economist Shows They Expect War, Pestilence And Financial Collapse Next Year

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

NYC’s ‘Madoff of landlords’ defaults on $170M loans, faces foreclosure on 35 Manhattan properties: suits

By Peter Senzamici  Published Nov. 19, 2025 Updated Nov. 19, 2025, 2:24 p.m. ET

New York City’s “Bernie Madoff of landlords” has defaulted on nearly $170 million in loans — and is facing foreclosure on a whopping 35 or so Manhattan properties, new court records show.

Steven Croman, a longtime notorious landlord and convicted fraudster — who did a stint on Rikers Island more than a decade ago — is facing another reckoning, but this time in civil court.

A bevy of lawsuits filed recently filed against Croman in Manhattan Supreme Court claim he is in default on $168 million worth of real estate loans.

Croman initially took the loans from New York Community Bank, then to Flagstar Bank after a 2022 merger, but they were reassigned last month to a new lender Orange Owner LLC. 

They allege that the real estate tycoon for months has failed to make payments at many of his properties, and owes millions on some of the buildings.

Croman held a massive portfolio of 140 buildings when he was busted in 2016 for filing fraudulent paperwork to receive tens of millions in illicit bank loans, according to prosecutors at the time.

Dubbed “the Bernie Madoff of landlords” by then-state Attorney General Eric Schneiderman, Croman was also accused of using a former NYPD officer to harass tenants into leaving their units — allowing him to jack up the rent on unwitting New Yorkers.

He pleaded guilty to mortgage fraud in 2017, and spent a year behind bars on Rikers Island.

Last week, Crain’s reported that Croman was being sued by Orange Owner for allegedly defaulting on a total of $71.5 million in loans tied to five different buildings.

But the amount Croman is alleged to be in default has since grown by nearly $100 million, according to the now-20 lawsuits filed this month.

Those include a $12.4 million loan at 209 E. 25th St., a 44-unit building in Kips Bay where rents can reach nearly $5,500 a month, the bank claimed.

Croman allegedly fell two months behind on his mortgage payments on that property, totaling $493,845 — with over half due to late fees and other charges, the bank claimed in an October notice.

The lawsuit also demands that Croman repay the full $10.37 million mortgage on 346 E. 18th St. in Gramercy Park, where rents range from $7,500 to nearly $10,000 a month.

Croman allegedly fell behind on his October loan payment on that property, owing $362,332 with late fees, filings claim. 

More

NYC's 'Madoff of landlords' Steven Croman defaults on $170M loans: suits | New York Post

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.

 

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Malaysia suspends rare earths, tin mining operations after river water turns blue

Published Thu, Nov 20 2025 12:44 AM EST

Malaysia has suspended operations at a rare earth site and two tin mines in western Perak state following an investigation into complaints that a stretch of a major river had turned bright blue, the natural resources and environment ministry said.

Minister Johari Abdul Ghani told parliament Wednesday that authorities had launched a probe after public reports about discolored water in a part of the Perak River, the second-longest on the Malaysian peninsula.

Initial investigations found discharges at the rare earths mining site, operated by MCRE Resources Sdn Bhd, which matched the color of the water in the river, Johari said.

Radiation readings at the site were also found to be as high as 13 becquerels, far above the 1 becquerel limit permitted under the project’s initial environmental impact assessment report, he added.

“The investigation is now focusing on the type of chemicals used in the mining process and whether it is consistent with the information that has been reported to the authorities,” Johari said.

MCRE did not immediately respond to a request for comment about Johari’s remarks.

According to its website, MCRE operates Malaysia’s pioneer rare earths mining project, using a method known as in-situ leaching, with technology shared by Chinese rare earth firms.

Malaysia, which has an estimated 16 million tons of rare earths deposits, has been seeking to capitalize on growing global demand for the minerals, but lacks the technological know-how to mine and process them.

It has been in talks with China, the world’s leader in rare earths mining and processing, on a potential refinery, and last month signed a deal with the United States on rare earths development.

In a separate statement on Wednesday, the ministry said it had issued suspension orders to MCRE as well as two tin mining companies after inspections found they were not complying with regulations related to effluent discharge, erosion and sediment control, and chemical management.

The suspensions were made following complaints of pollution at several rivers in Perak, the ministry said.

Malaysia suspends rare earths, tin mining operations after river water turns blue

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

Another weekend and with Nvidia’s “magic” undone, a treacherous trading week lies ahead for stocks. A gloomy year-end Christmas retail season now looks likely, even if the US central bank cuts its key interest rate next month. Charles Dickens “best of times”,  is fast turning into “the worst of times”. Have a great weekend everyone.

The function of entrepreneurs is to reform or revolutionize the pattern of production by exploiting an invention or, more generally, an untried technological possibility for producing a new commodity or producing an old one in a new way, by opening up a new source of supply of materials or a new outlet for products, by reorganizing an industry and so on.

Joseph A. Schumpeter

Nvidia Beats Street. AI Bubble Bubbles On! China Defeats Holland!

Baltic Dry Index. 2260 +44         Brent Crude 63.76

Spot Gold  4072             US 2 Year Yield 3.58 unch.

US Federal Debt. 38.216 trillion

US GDP 31.587 trillion.

"Considerable uncertainty is attached to all economic estimates"

Alan Greenspan

In the US stock casinos, the AI bubbles back, thanks to Nvidia. But for how long, given rising doubts over return of capital employed, let alone generating a return on AI capital.

Stock futures higher as Nvidia’s strong forecast reignites the AI trade: Live updates

Updated Thu, Nov 20 2025 8:25 PM EST

Stock futures are higher Wednesday night as investors digested Nvidia’s latest quarterly beat, which appeared to be helping to restore confidence in major technology stocks and give a boost to the broader market.

Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 222 points, or nearly 0.5%. S&P futures rose 1.1%, while Nasdaq 100 futures jumped 1.6%.

Nvidia shares jumped nearly 5% in extended trading after the chipmaker released its highly anticipated quarterly results, which beat Wall Street’s earnings and revenue expectations. The market-moving company also gave a stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter sales forecast, with CEO Jensen Huang saying demand for its current-generation Blackwell chips are “off the charts.”

Nvidia’s upbeat guidance likely lifted investor sentiment around the AI trade, which has weakened in recent sessions amid fears about elevated valuations, debt financing and potential chip depreciation. The results boosted a slew of stocks across the AI ecosystem in the after-hours session, including chipmakers Advanced Micro Devices and Broadcom and power infrastructure companies such as Eaton.

“Nvidia’s numbers remain extremely strong now, but there are inevitably questions whether Huang’s company has already reached its high-water mark in terms of growth and market share,” said David Russell, TradeStation’s global head of market strategy. 

In the previous session, all three major U.S. stock indexes rose across the board as investors awaited Nvidia’s report. Gains in the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average snapped a four-day slide for both indexes. To be sure, stocks are in the red for the week given the depth of the recent pullback in several growth stocks.

Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s October meeting released Wednesday afternoon showed disagreements between Fed officials over whether a slowing labor market or inflation were bigger threats to the U.S. economy. The divide between central bank officials is also reflected in their outlook for their upcoming December decision, with “many” officials calling for no more interest rate cuts this year. Traders are pricing in a 33% likelihood that the Fed will cut its benchmark overnight borrowing rate by a quarter percentage point during its upcoming December meeting, significantly lower than their bets just a month ago, per the CME FedWatch Tool.

On Thursday morning, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release September nonfarm payrolls data, which was delayed by the U.S. government shutdown.

Stock market today: Live updates

Wall Street Jumps for Joy at Nvidia Forecast

November 19, 2025 at 11:16 PM GMT

Did we doubt you? So sorry. This was Wall Street late Wednesday afternoon addressing the artificial intelligence frenzy that’s been driving investors nuts. The apology came in the form of an after-market rally as shares of the world’s largest tech companies climbed on speculation Nvidia’s blockbuster outlook will reignite a tech-driven surge that, until recently, had been fueling near-regular records.

Nvidia shares spiked about 5% after the giant chipmaker, seen as a barometer for AI technology, gave a strong revenue forecast for the current period. The news may help counter concern that a global rise in AI spending is poised to pop in calamitous fashion. Worries over everything from the durability of the AI trade to the Federal Reserve’s policy path have contributed to a recent equity rout. With investors increasingly skeptical of tech spending, how Nvidia’s results are interpreted will be key. Tune in tomorrow.

What You Need to Know Today

For all the talk of cockroaches and private credit turf wars, JPMorgan is dominating the field with giant checks only the biggest US bank can write. Time and again, the firm has overwhelmed private credit managers and Wall Street rivals with substantial financing packages to win coveted debt deals. First it led an $8 billion effort for 3G Capital’s acquisition of Skechers. Then it stepped up with $17.5 billion to help Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. split itself in two.

But the most audacious of all was JPMorgan’s $20 billion check for the acquisition of Electronic Arts, the largest-ever commitment by one bank for a leveraged buyout. After Silver Lake Management’s Egon Durban called JPMorgan Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon, seeking assurance his bank had the conviction to commit the necessary funds, it took just 11 days to iron out the deal. (It was a deal, it turns out, that also involved President Donald Trump’s son-in-law.)

More

Wall Street Jumps for Joy at Nvidia Forecast: Evening Briefing Americas - Bloomberg

Nvidia shares rise on stronger-than-expected revenue, forecast

Published Wed, Nov 19 2025 12:00 PM EST

Nvidia reported fiscal third-quarter earnings and revenue that topped Wall Street expectations on Wednesday and provided stronger-than-expected sales guidance for the fourth quarter. 

Shares of the AI chipmaker rose more than 4% in extended trading.

Here’s how the company did, compared with estimates from analysts polled by LSEG:

• Earnings per share: $1.30 adjusted vs. $1.25 estimated
• Revenue: $57.01 billion vs. $54.92 billion estimated

Nvidia said it expects about $65 billion in sales in the current quarter, versus $61.66 billion expected by analysts.

The company said net income in the quarter rose 65% to $31.91 billion, or $1.30 per share, from $19.31 billion, or 78 cents per share, in the year-ago period.

Nvidia has become the most valuable publicly traded company, mostly on insatiable demand for its AI chips, called GPUs. Nvidia counts Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Oracle, and Meta as customers. Its chips are used by all the leading tech companies to develop new artificial intelligence models.

Nvidia’s sales and outlook are closely watched by the technology industry as a sign for the health of the AI boom. 

“There’s been a lot of talk about an AI bubble,” Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang told investors on an earnings call. “From our vantage point, we see something very different.”

Nvidia’s most important business is data center sales. Nvidia said it had $51.2 billion in data center sales, easily surpassing analyst expectations for $49.09 billion in sales during the quarter, a 66% rise on a year-over-year basis.

Of that, $43 billion in revenue was for “compute,” or the company’s GPUs. The company said that much of the growth was driven by initial sales of the company’s GB300 chips. Networking, or parts that allow scores of GPUs to work as one computer, accounted for $8.2 billion in data center sales.

Nvidia finance chief Colette Kress said in a statement that the company’s best-selling chip family is now Blackwell Ultra, the second-generation version of the company’s Blackwell chips.

More

Nvidia (NVDA) earnings report Q3 2026

Back in the real world, far from the AI bubble, things don’t look so good.

Jeffrey Gundlach Warns of ‘Garbage Lending’ as Private Credit Booms

Mon, November 17, 2025 at 9:00 AM GMT

(Bloomberg) -- In markets awash in “garbage lending” and unhealthy valuations, Jeffrey Gundlach is keeping his strategy simple: load up on cash and stay away from private credit.

One of Wall Street’s bond kings is spotting overpriced assets almost everywhere he looks. In an episode of the podcast recorded to mark the show’s 10-year anniversary, Gundlach called out nosebleed valuations in the equity market and warned investors against “incredibly speculative” bets.

The DoubleLine Capital founder recommends a 20% cash position to hedge against a market implosion — one he sees brewing in unsafe lending to private companies and overblown hopes for artificial intelligence.

“The health of the equity market in the United States, it’s among the least healthy in my entire career,” Gundlach said. “The market is incredibly speculative and speculative markets always go to insanely high levels. It happens every time.”

The veteran debt investor is concerned the $1.7 trillion private credit market is engaging in “garbage lending” that could tip global markets into their next meltdown. The collapse of auto lender Tricolor Holdings and car-parts supplier First Brands Group has lent new urgency to what’s an oft-repeated narrative for Gundlach.

“The next big crisis in the financial markets is going to be private credit,” he said. “It has the same trappings as subprime mortgage repackaging had back in 2006.”

That warning sets the stage for Gundlach’s broader critique of market excess, which stretches from risky loans to frothy tech stocks. He sees the clearest signs of speculative behavior in bets on AI and data centers.

Wall Street has been growing more cautious about the huge sums that companies are spending on infrastructure and the hefty prices those at the center of the AI boom command. Shares of chipmaker Nvidia Corp. are down 8% this month while the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index has lost more than 3%.

“One has to be very careful about momentum investing during mania periods — I feel like that’s where we are right now,” Gundlach said.

More

Jeffrey Gundlach Warns of ‘Garbage Lending’ as Private Credit Booms

Target sinks to new low as customers flee in droves - forcing bosses into drastic move

Published: 14:04, 19 November 2025 | Updated: 16:32, 19 November 2025

Inflation-weary shoppers are steering clear of Target's messy, understaffed stores. 

On Wednesday morning, the Minneapolis chain with 1,980 stores said third-quarter profit took yet another hit, deepening a slide that has now stretched across three straight years. 

Target's slump comes from a four-headed monster: shabby stores, sinking staff morale, jittery investors, and a leadership shake-up waiting in the wings. 

And the pain isn't ending anytime soon. Executives warned the sales slump will drag straight through the critical holiday shopping season. 

To stop the bleeding, Target is throwing another $1billion at store remodels and new locations next year, bringing its multi-year store facelift tab to roughly $5billion. 

Bosses hope the massive investment will finally jolt the chain out of its prolonged funk. Independent analysts say the overhaul is not only welcome — it's years late. 

'Stores are not optimized for the consumer,' Neil Saunders, a retail expert for GlobalData, said. 

'There are too many out of stocks, too much mess, not enough assistance at registers, so forth.' 

Investors have punished Target's stock recently, sending it down 43 percent over the past year. Shares are down nearly three percent before Wednesday's Wall Street bell. 

Now the pressure lands squarely on incoming CEO Michael Fiddelke, a 20-year company veteran who takes over from Brian Cornell on February 1. 

He faces a mandate to restore Target's identity as a destination for affordable-but-stylish goods — a lane Walmart has firmly seized. 

'We may see stabilization next year, but it will take some time beyond that to grow sales,' Saunders added. 

'They need a complete overhaul of operations and culture to get back on track.'  

Target, meanwhile, has been hacking away at costs. 

In October, the company said it would cut about 1,800 corporate jobs, roughly 8 percent of its white-collar workforce, to speed up decision-making and reignite growth.

To pump up sales during the holidays, Target is offering more than 20,000 new items, twice as many as last year, and it has lowered prices on thousands of food, beverage, and essential items. 

More

Target sinks to new low as customers flee in droves - forcing bosses into drastic move | Daily Mail Online

Dutch Government Moves to Defuse Tension Over Chipmaker Nexperia

November 19, 2025 at 5:00 PM GMT

The Dutch government suspended its powers over chipmaker Nexperia, handing back control to its Chinese owner and defusing a standoff with Beijing that had begun to hamper automotive production around the world.

The move marks a significant de-escalation of a dispute that highlighted Beijing’s growing leverage over the global economy and which threatened to disrupt automakers from Honda Motor to Volkswagen.

The latest decision was “a show of goodwill,” Dutch Economic Affairs Minister Vincent Karremans said, adding that discussions with Chinese authorities were continuing. China called it a step in the right direction.

The Dutch state had invoked supervisory powers over Nexperia to safeguard crucial technology, citing concerns that actions by Wingtech Technology Co., the chipmaker’s Chinese owner, risked hobbling the company.

The Chinese government retaliated by imposing export restrictions over components from the Dutch company’s facility in Guangdong, which assembles chips from wafers made in Europe.—Zoltan Simon

Dutch Government Moves to Defuse Tension Over Chipmaker Nexperia - Bloomberg

In other news, more on when AI goes wrong.

ChatGPT’s Hallucination Problem: Study Finds More Than Half Of AI’s References Are Fabricated Or Contain Errors

Nov 17, 2025

In A Nutshell

• A Deakin University study of mental health literature reviews found that ChatGPT (GPT-4o) fabricated roughly one in five academic citations, with more than half of all citations (56%) being either fake or containing errors.
• The AI’s accuracy varied dramatically by topic: depression citations were 94% real, while binge eating disorder and body dysmorphic disorder saw fabrication rates near 30%, suggesting less-studied subjects face higher risks.
• Among fabricated citations that included DOIs, 64% linked to real but completely unrelated papers, making the errors harder to spot without careful verification.
• Mental health researchers using AI tools need to verify every citation manually, and journals should strengthen safeguards to prevent fabricated references from entering published work.

 Mental health researchers relying on ChatGPT to speed up their work should take note of an unsettling finding from Australian researchers. The AI chatbot gets citations wrong or invents them outright more than half the time.

Depression research is extensive, with more than 100 clinical trials evaluating digital interventions alone. Body dysmorphic disorder has far fewer published studies on digital treatments.

Lesser-Known Topics Trigger More AI Hallucinations

GPT-4o’s citation accuracy varied dramatically depending on which disorder it wrote about. For major depressive disorder, only 6% of citations were fabricated. But for binge eating disorder and body dysmorphic disorder, fabrication rates jumped to 28% and 29%, respectively.

Among real citations, major depressive disorder achieved 64% accuracy, binge eating disorder 60%, and body dysmorphic disorder only 29%. The pattern suggests ChatGPT may perform better on well-established topics with abundant training data, though the study notes this relationship wasn’t directly tested.

The study also examined whether asking for general overviews versus specialized reviews affected accuracy. When researchers requested a broad summary of each disorder including symptoms and treatments, fabrication rates differed from when they asked for highly specific reviews focused on digital interventions for each condition.

For binge eating disorder specifically, specialized reviews saw fabrication rates jump to 46% compared to 17% for general overviews. However, this pattern didn’t hold consistently across all three disorders.

Rising AI Adoption in Research Raises the Stakes

These results emerge as AI adoption accelerates in research settings. A recent survey found that nearly 70% of mental health scientists report using ChatGPT for research tasks including writing, data analysis, and literature reviews. Most users say the tools improve efficiency, but many express concern about inaccuracies and misleading content.

Researchers face growing pressure to publish frequently while juggling teaching, supervision, and administrative duties. Tools that promise to streamline literature reviews and speed up writing offer appealing solutions to productivity demands. But accepting AI output without verification creates serious risks.

Fabricated references mislead readers, distort scientific understanding, and erode the foundation of scholarly communication. Citations guide readers to source evidence and build cumulative knowledge. When those citations point nowhere or to the wrong papers, the entire system breaks down.

More

ChatGPT's Hallucination Problem: Study Finds More Than Half Of AI's References Are Fabricated Or Contain Errors

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Inflation stays high in pre-Budget warning to Reeves

Wednesday 19 November 2025 7:26 am  |Updated:  Wednesday 19 November 2025 7:27 am

Inflation hit 3.6 per cent in the year to October, it has been revealed, in the last set of prices data Chancellor Rachel Reeves will see before a crucial Budget focused on curbing the cost of living.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said inflation cooled slightly from last month’s figure of 3.8 per cent, but came in slightly higher than some economists had predicted.

Statisticians at the body also recorded services inflation to have lowered slightly to 4.5 per cent, a measure closely monitored by policymakers at the Bank of England.

Core inflation, which strips volatile items such as energy and food, rose by 3.4 per cent.

“Inflation eased in October, driven mainly by gas and electricity prices, which increased less than this time last year following changes in the Ofgem energy price cap,” Grant Fitzner, chief economist at the ONS, said.

“The annual cost of raw materials for businesses continued to increase, while factory gate prices also rose.”

Fitzner added that hotel prices were a downward driver on price growth.

The latest set of data is unlikely to ease tensions in the Treasury ahead of the Budget.

Reeves has said lowering the cost of living would be a central objective when she announces a sweep of new tax and spending policies next week.

The mission underpinning her Budget could lead to a reduction in borrowing costs for the government, which are currently forecast to exceed £110bn this year.

A drive to lower inflation through a sweep of measures that either boost productivity in the UK economy or controversially dampen demand levels through extra taxes on households could prompt Bank of England policymakers to vote for further interest rate cuts in the next year.

Lower interest rates would result in a fall on regular payments to the government’s lenders in the bond markets, lessening the strain on public finances.

Schroders’ senior economist George Brown said further rate cuts would hinge on Budget decisions to lower bills.

More

Inflation stays high in pre-Budget warning to Reeves

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.

 

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Battery tracks: the green innovations that could power the railway's next golden era

Battery trains are gearing up to replace much of Britain’s ageing diesel fleet. Andrew Wade reports on the technology set to power the transition.

17 Nov 2025

Alongside the headline celebrations of 200 years of rail in Britain, 2025 also marks the 70th anniversary of the 1955 Modernisation Plan to update the rail network. Drawn up under Churchill’s second term after Labour had nationalised the railways in 1948, the plan called for a combination of mainline electrification as well as the introduction of diesel power to replace ageing steam locomotives. 

Though its success is contested - the Beeching cuts that followed in the 1960s are often linked to its shortcomings - the legacy of the Modernisation Plan is undeniable. The mix of electrification and diesel laid out in 1955 is fundamentally what still powers Britain’s trains today. And while the sun may slowly be setting on diesel, only around 40 per cent of the UK network has been electrified over the intervening 70 years, presenting both a challenge and a unique opportunity for the rail sector.

“A pitifully small amount of the UK railway network is electrified,” Graeme Clark, Siemens Mobility’s head of Business Development for Rolling Stock, told The Engineer. “Electrification is the right way to go, but to electrify everything would cost a fortune. A lot of the route densities of traffic are not high enough in many cases to justify full electrification.”

The answer, according to Clark and many others, is battery trains, or battery electric multiple units (BEMUs). BEMUs are bi-mode trains that can be powered by overhead lines or third rails where available, operating in battery mode on parts of the network yet to be electrified.

For regional lines with no electrification – and little prospect of it in sight – batteries paired with fast-chargers could replace the diesel multiple units (DMUs) that have been the workhorses of UK rail for several decades. It’s a huge opportunity for operators and OEMs to modernise train fleets, improve passenger experience, and make a serious dent in the rail sector’s carbon emissions.

Siemens Mobility’s battery offering for the UK is the Desiro Verve, a BEMU evolution of its longstanding Desiro train family. Anyone who has travelled on Thameslink services will be familiar with the train, as more than 100 Desiro City variants are currently in operation on Thameslink’s main line routes in and around London. According to Clark, the average Verve passenger would be none the wiser they were travelling on a BEMU. 

“The batteries are all outside the vehicle,” he said. “So if you see them from the outside, the only thing you would notice is it has got a few more boxes underneath it. There’s nothing inside the train at all, apart from seats and luggage racks and the things that the passengers want to see.”

The history of battery trains dates all the way back to the 1890s, with several successful iterations through the first half of the 20th century before diesel started to dominate. Early chemistries ranged from nickel-iron and nickel-zinc to the lead-acid batteries used by the British Rail BEMU that ran on Scotland’s Deeside Railway from 1958-1966.

Today, lithium-ion is the battery chemistry of choice for most mobility applications, though a variety of flavours are available. Trains are very different vehicles to cars, and what works for the automotive sector is not necessarily the right fit for rail. Finding the right balance between density, charging time and longevity is paramount, according to Clark

“We’re looking at lithium titanate oxide batteries,” he said. Though considerably lower in energy density than other types of lithium-ion chemistries, lithium titanate oxide (LTO) batteries are ideal for the rail sector. Trains are such hefty vehicles to begin with that additional weight is simply not as crucial as it is in sectors like automotive and electronics. And what LTO lacks in power density, it makes up for in charging speed and durability. According to Clark, Desiro Verve’s LTO batteries will require just a single overhaul throughout the life of the trains.

More

How battery trains could replace Britain's diesel fleet

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

"You can get much farther with a kind word and a gun than you can with a kind word alone."

Al Capone