Wednesday, 24 January 2024

The Great Stock Casino Bubble Bubbles On, For Now.

Baltic Dry Index. 1473 -45           Brent Crude  79.59

Spot Gold 2025                  US 2 Year Yield 4.31  -0.06

Economics is extremely useful as a form of employment for economists.

John Kenneth Galbraith.

In the great global gambling casinos, the Great (Final) Stock Mania Bubble, bubbles on.  In the real world economy, where people work for a living, more sign of a global economy rolling over.

When the Great 2024 Global Bust finally hits, economic carnage if not worse, will roll out on the five or six continents, depending on how you count them.


Alibaba pops 6% pushing Hong Kong share higher; Asia markets mostly lower

UPDATED WED, JAN 24 2024 12:43 AM EST

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index surged as much as 2.67% before paring gains on Wednesday, powered by tech stocks as other Asia-Pacific markets mostly fell.

The Hang Seng Tech index gained almost 3%, before moderating later in the day in a surge led by Alibaba. The Chinese tech giant jumped as much as 6.57% after founder Jack Ma reportedly bought $50 million of Alibaba shares listed in Hong Kong. The mainland Chinese CSI 300 was down 0.45%.

Investors are also assessing economic data out of Japan, as well as factory activity data from Australia.

Japan’s December exports beat expectations, with its trade balance turning in a $62.1 billion surplus compared with a $122.1 billion deficit expected by a Reuters poll of economists. The data comes a day after the Bank of Japan left its monetary policy unchanged.

Australia also saw flash PMI surveys from Juno Bank, which showed an expansion in manufacturing activity in January after 11 straight months of contraction. Business activity in the country also saw a softer contraction in January compared to December.

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 inched up marginally after the announcement and ended at 7,519.2, marking four straight days of gains.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 slid 0.26%, extending its losses from Tuesday, while the Topix saw a smaller loss of 0.15%.

South Korea’s Kospi fell 0.43%, with heavyweights Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix recording the largest losses among the top 10 stocks on the benchmark index. The small-cap Kosdaq also fell 1.35%

Overnight in the U.S., the S&P 500 gained 0.29% to set a fresh all-time high of 4,864.60 as traders assessed the latest batch of corporate earnings.

The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.43%, but the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average snapped a three day winning streak and fell 0.25%, retreating below the 38,000 level that was crossed for the first time on Monday.

Asia markets live updates: Alibaba, Japan PMI, Australia PMI, Japan trade (cnbc.com)

Nasdaq 100 futures rise after Netflix posts subscriber jump: Live updates

UPDATED WED, JAN 24 2024 12:08 AM EST

Futures tied to the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 climbed Wednesday morning after Netflix reported its subscriber count reached a new record in the fourth quarter. 

Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.34%, while S&P 500 futures gained 0.21%. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures oscillated near the flat line.

Netflix shares surged 8.6% in extended trading. The streaming company added more than 13 million new subscribers in the fourth quarter, bringing its total subscriber count to an all-time high of 260.8 million. Revenue also topped analysts’ estimates, and the company issued earnings guidance for the current quarter that beat Wall Street’s forecasts. 

Netflix’s subscriber increase “indicates the ongoing strength in the scaling of the ad-tier business, particularly scaling up at the end of last year, and also the momentum the company’s building and its crackdown on password sharing,” Jamie Lumley, senior analyst at Third Bridge Group, said on “Closing Bell: Overtime” on Tuesday. 

The streaming giant’s gains build upon mega-cap tech’s strong gains in 2024, which have fueled the S&P 500 to record highs and confirmed a new bull market. 

To be sure, the Dow pulled back 0.25% during Tuesday’s main trading session following disappointing earnings reports and guidance from several blue-chip companies. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 gained 0.29% to reach an all-time closing high. The Nasdaq Composite added 0.43%. 

Earnings reports expected on Wednesday include telecom giant AT&T and Freeport-McMoRan before the bell. Tesla, Las Vegas Sands and IBM will issue results after the close.

On the economic front, traders will be looking toward U.S. manufacturing and services data for January. Fourth quarter gross domestic product will also be released later in the week.

Stock market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)

Back in the real world far from “Bidenomics” and central bank free money. Layoffs and another setback for snake bit Boeing.

 

EBay to eliminate about 1,000 jobs, or 9% of full-time workforce

EBay said Tuesday that it plans to lay off 9% of the company’s workforce, equal to about 1,000 full-time jobs, as the tech industry continues to downsize to start 2024. The stock rose more than 3% in extended trading.

Jamie Iannone, eBay’s CEO, told employees in a letter published on a corporate blog, that the company will also “scale back the number of contracts we have within our alternate workforce over the coming months.”

Iannone said the job cuts are necessary because eBay’s “overall headcount and expenses have outpaced the growth of our business.”

“To address this, we’re implementing organizational changes that align and consolidate certain teams to improve the end-to-end experience, and better meet the needs of our customers around the world,” Iannone said. “Shortly, we will begin notifying those employees whose roles have been eliminated and entering into a consultation process in areas where required.”

Following hefty job cuts last year, tech companies have continued to eliminate positions in January as concerns about consumer and business spending persist. AmazonAlphabet and Unity have confirmed cuts this month, and SAP said on Tuesday that it aims to carry out voluntary buyouts or enable job changes for 8,000 employees as part of a restructuring program for 2024.

More

EBay to slash about 1,000 roles, or 9% of full-time employees (cnbc.com)

Boeing 757 loses nose wheel while preparing for takeoff in Atlanta

January 24, 2024 4:31 AM GMT

Jan 23 (Reuters) - The nose wheel of a Boeing 757 passenger jet operated by Delta Air Lines popped off and rolled away as the plane was lining up for takeoff over the weekend from Atlanta's international airport, according to the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA).

Boeing was not immediately available to comment outside regular business hours.

The nose gear mishap on Saturday came amid heightened scrutiny of the aircraft manufacturer by federal regulators following the mid-air blowout of a fuselage panel that left a gaping hold in an 8-week-old Boeing 737 MAX 9 jet flown by Alaska Airlines.

Nobody was seriously injured in the blowout, but the FAA grounded 171 MAX 9s after the Jan. 5 incident.

The agency has since recommended that airlines operating Boeing 737-900ER jets inspect door plugs on those jets to ensure they are properly secured after some carriers reported loose hardware during inspections of grounded MAX 9 planes. read more

According to a preliminary FAA notice filed on Monday documenting the 757 nose gear detachment, none of the 184 passengers or six crew members aboard was hurt in the incident, which took place at Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport.

The report said the aircraft was lining up and waiting for takeoff when the "nose wheel came off and rolled down the hill."

The plane had been scheduled for a flight to Bogota, Colombia, when the mishap occurred, and a Delta spokesperson said the passengers were put on a replacement flight, according to the New York Times, which broke the story late on Tuesday.

The newspaper said Boeing declined comment and directed questions to the airline. The FAA told the newspaper it was continuing its investigation of the incident.

Boeing 757 loses nose wheel while preparing for takeoff in Atlanta | Reuters

Next, will China do a “Greenspan” and come to the rescue of its stock markets? Even if China does, it’s too late for some.

 

China weighs stock market rescue package backed by $278 bln - Bloomberg News

Jan 23 (Reuters) - Chinese authorities are considering measures to stabilise a slumping stock market, Bloomberg News reported, opens new tab on Tuesday citing people familiar with the matter, drawing a sceptical response from underwhelmed investors.

Policymakers are seeking to mobilise about 2 trillion yuan ($278.53 billion), mainly from offshore accounts of state-owned enterprises, as part of a stabilisation fund to buy shares onshore through the Hong Kong exchange link, Bloomberg News reported.

The China Securities Regulatory Commission did not respond to a Reuters request for a comment.

Chinese stocks rose immediately after the report but reversed course later to slip lower and were last broadly flat. The bluechip CSI300 Index (.CSI300), opens new tab was rooted near a five-year low, while the Shanghai Composite Index (.SSEC), opens new tab remained below the psychologically key 2,800-point mark.

China's stock markets have had a wretched start to the year, with patchy economic growth and a renewed slump in home sales last week solidifying foreign investors' resolve to steer clear.

The report came after the cabinet, following a meeting chaired by Premier Li Qiang, on Monday said it would step up mid- and long-term fund injection in the capital market to strengthen stability and promote healthy development.

"China's stock market package is a welcome measure and shows increasing responsiveness from the authorities. But at under 2% of its GDP, we fear this is still inadequate," said Aninda Mitra, head of Asia macro and investment strategy at BNY Mellon Investment Management.

Global money managers - who have been sellers of Chinese stocks as the post-pandemic recovery sputtered - said it will take a long time or major stimulus to repair the property sector, which at one time accounted for a quarter of the economy, and change their minds.

Overseas funds have sold roughly $1.6 billion in Chinese equities so far this year, driven mainly by European active funds and Hong Kong passive money, Morgan Stanley said in a report last week.

Chinese investors are also shunning stocks.

More

China weighs stock market rescue package backed by $278 bln - Bloomberg News | Reuters

Singapore's Asia Genesis closes hedge fund after losing bets on China, Japan

By Summer Zhen 

HONG KONG, Jan 23 (Reuters) - Singapore-based Asia Genesis Asset Management is liquidating its hedge fund after a "significant and unprecedented drawdown" following missteps in Chinese and Japanese bets.

The Asia Genesis Macro Fund lost 18.8% in the first weeks of January, Chief Investment Officer Chua Soon Hock said in a letter to investors seen by Reuters. He said he decided to close the fund to prevent further loss and return money.

The fund, which hedge fund veteran Chua launched in 2020, manages about $300 million.

Asia Genesis did not respond to a request for comment. A person close to the matter confirmed the decision.

The closure comes amid an unprecedented stock rout in China and sustained rally in Japan.

"We made big mistakes in the recent sharp Nikkei and Hong Kong moves which went in opposite directions," said Chua in the letter. "I have reached the stage whereby my confidence as a trader is lost."

The fund increased long positions in Hong Kong and China and was short in Japan, based on the prediction that China would outperform Japan this year after being sold off for the past three years, whereas Japan would be muted after a 30% rally last year.

The fund's predicament was exacerbated by the absence of major economic stimulus in China including interest rate cuts, Chua said. China maintained rates on Monday.

Chua said he was disappointed by the "inconsistency of China policy makers not fighting against deflation, leading to continued loss of market confidence and prolonged bear market."

The Asia Genesis Macro Fund generated positive returns in 2020, 2021 and 2022, Asia Genesis' website showed. It gained 6.5% in 2023 up to November, said a person familiar with the performance.

Chua previously ran a Japan macro fund which returned 18.7% annually from 2000 through 2009.

Many long-term China bulls have been caught off-guard by the prolonged stock market decline.

In a Linkedin post in December, Chua said 2024 would be the beginning of a multi-year bull market for Chinese stocks.

More

Singapore's Asia Genesis closes hedge fund after losing bets on China, Japan | Reuters

Finally, more on EV reality.

 

Battery-powered electric cars will never dominate the market, says Toyota chairman

January 23, 2024

Battery-powered electric vehicles will never dominate the car market, making up no more than 30 per cent of global sales, according to the world’s biggest car manufacturer.

In a stark warning that raises fresh concerns about the push to go green, Toyota chairman Akio Toyoda said combustion engines as well as hybrids and those powered by hydrogen fuel cells will play a major role in the future.

Toyoda, whose grandfather founded Toyota in Japan in 1937, said the shift to battery electric vehicles – known in the industry as BEVs – was not the answer when a billion people worldwide live without electricity.

‘We also supply vehicles to these regions, so a single BEV option cannot provide transportation for everyone,’ he said in remarks published on the Toyota website.

‘No matter how much progress BEVs make, I think they will still only have a 30 per cent market share.’

He said the remaining 70 per cent would be other types of greener vehicles and added: ‘Engine cars will definitely remain. 

I think this is something that customers and the market will decide, not regulatory values or political power.’

Pushing back against the focus on BEVs at the expense of alternatives, Toyoda said: ‘The enemy is CO2. So, let’s all think about reducing CO2.’

Governments around the world are pressing drivers to ditch petrol and diesel cars.

But some drivers are reluctant because of the cost of electric cars and a lack of infrastructure such as charging points.

Battery-powered electric cars will never dominate the market, says Toyota chairman (msn.com)

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

50,000 companies face collapse as ‘debt storm’ breaks 

23 January 2024 • 6:53am

Tens of thousands of businesses are on the brink of collapse as higher borrowing costs and taxes pile pressure on the economy.

Nearly 50,000 companies are on the edge of failure as they grapple with a “double whammy” of steeper interest rates and consumer gloom, new figures from a leading insolvency practice show.

Hikes to corporation tax and the National Living Wage are also adding to costs for debt-laden businesses.

Begbies Traynor’s Red Flag Alert warned that 47,477 companies were in “critical” financial distress at the end of 2023, an increase of 10,000 since September.

The 26pc surge from the third quarter is the second consecutive period where critical financial distress has grown by more than a quarter. 

Many companies on the list are expected to go bust, leaving workers unemployed and creditors out of pocket.

Begbies Traynor partner Julie Palmer said: “Any company which is consumer facing is feeling the effects of the cost of living crisis and the days of cheap money are over.

“Consumer confidence is very low and they’re having to pay more for their debt. It’s going to be a hard year.  It’s a double whammy.”

Companies who borrowed to stay afloat during Covid are also having to repay their bounceback loans, compounding to the financial distress, Ms Palmer said. 

More

Nearly 50,000 companies face collapse as ‘debt storm’ breaks (telegraph.co.uk)

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

 

How COVID-19 Vaccines and Infections Are Tweaking Our Immunity

Mon, 22 January 2024 at 9:23 pm GMT

Your immune system may be getting smarter every time you encounter COVID-19, a new study suggests. After getting vaccinated and infected, the immune system generates broader defenses against the virus, including against new variants.

In a paper published Jan. 19 in Science Immunology, researchers in South Korea compared immune cells in the lab from people with a variety of vaccine and infection histories throughout the different Omicron waves, which began in late 2021 with BA.1. People who had been vaccinated with the original Pfizer-BioNTech series and then got infected with any Omicron variant showed good levels of memory immune cells—called T cells—that defended not only against the variants causing the infection, but also related ones in the Omicron family that came later. For example, people who were vaccinated with three doses of the original COVID-19 shot and then got infected with the BA.2 variant generated T cells that could target not just BA.2 but also BA.4/5 and XBB viruses, which didn’t emerge until later.

“This is evidence of cross adaptation between the virus and human beings overall,” says Dr. Eui-Cheol Shin, professor at the Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology and senior author of the paper. “It also means we are on the way to an endemic era for COVID-19.”

Shin and his team found that the T cells—which are more durable than antibodies and are designed to retain memory of the viruses they encounter—generated against Omicron variants recognized the parts of the virus that remained conserved, as opposed to portions that had changed among the different variants. This, in part, helps people to not get as sick from reinfections.

The fact that the immune system is able to concentrate on these consistent parts of the virus could be an encouraging sign that the virus is evolving in a way to co-exist with humans, says Shin. There’s precedent for viruses becoming endemic in this way, since a handful of coronaviruses that started off as deadly now cause the common cold.

More

How COVID-19 Vaccines and Infections Are Tweaking Our Immunity (yahoo.com)

 

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Quantum physicist uses graphene ribbons to build nanoscale power plants

January 20, 2024

When Mickael Perrin started out on his scientific career 12 years ago, he had no way of knowing he was conducting research in an area that would be attracting wide public interest only a few years later: Quantum electronics. "At the time, physicists were just starting to talk about the potential of quantum technologies and quantum computers," he recalls.

"Today there are dozens of start-ups in this area, and governments and companies are investing billions in developing the technology further. We are now seeing the first applications in computer science, cryptography, communications and sensors." Perrin's research is opening up another field of application: Electricity production using quantum effects with almost zero energy loss. To achieve this, the 36-year-old scientist combines two usually separate disciplines of physics: thermodynamics and quantum mechanics.

In the past year, the quality of Perrin's research and its potential for future applications has brought him two awards. He received not only one of the ERC Starting Grants that are so highly sought-after by young researchers, but also an Eccellenza Professorial Fellowship of the Swiss National Science Foundation (SNS)F. He now leads a research group of nine at Empa as well as being an Assistant Professor of Quantum Electronics at ETH Zurich.

---- A year after completing his doctorate, Perrin obtained a post at Empa in the laboratory of Michel Calame, an expert in integrating quantum materials into nano devices. Since then, Perrin—a French and Swiss national—has lived in Dübendorf with his partner and two daughters. "Switzerland was a good choice for me for several reasons," he says. "The research infrastructure is unparalleled."

Empa, ETH Zurich and the IBM Research Center in Rüschlikon provide him with everything he needs in order to produce nanostructures, as well as the measuring instruments to test them. "Also, I'm an outdoor type. I love the mountains, and often go walking and skiing with my family." Perrin is a keen rock climber, too. He sometimes takes himself off climbing in remote valleys for weeks at a time, often in France, which is his family's country of origin.

At Empa this young researcher had the freedom to continue experimenting with nanomaterials. A certain material soon attracted his particular attention: Graphene nanoribbons, a material made from carbon atoms that is as thin as the individual atoms. These nanoribbons are manufactured with the greatest precision by Roman Fasel's group at Empa. Perrin was able to show that these ribbons have unique properties and can be used for a whole raft of quantum technologies.

At the same time, he began to take a close interest in converting heat into electrical energy. In 2018 it was in fact proved that quantum effects can be used to efficiently convert thermal energy into electricity. Up to now, the problem has been that these desirable physical properties appear only at very low temperatures—close to absolute zero (0 Kelvin; -237°C). This is of little relevance to potential future applications such as in smartphones or minisensors.

Perrin had the idea of circumventing this problem by using graphene nanoribbons. Their specific physical properties mean that temperature has a much smaller impact on the quantum effects—and thus the desired thermoelectric effects—than is the case with other materials. His group at Empa was soon able to demonstrate that the quantum effects of graphene nanoribbons are largely preserved even at 250 Kelvin, i.e. -23°C. In the future, the system is expected to work at room temperature, too.

More

Quantum physicist uses graphene ribbons to build nanoscale power plants (msn.com)

If economists could manage to get themselves thought of as humble, competent people on a level with dentists, that would be splendid.

John Maynard Keynes.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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