Baltic
Dry Index. 1499 -08
Brent Crude 83.88
Spot Gold 2026 US 2 Year Yield 4.28 -0.06
The cost of shipping a standard 40-foot container from Asia to northern Europe has surged from less than $1,500 in mid-December to nearly $5,500. Getting Asian cargoes to the Mediterranean is even costlier: almost $6,800, up from $2,400 in mid-December, according to the freight booking platform Freightos.
In the stock casinos, a total disconnect from events in the real world.
Below, little need for me to comment.
Evergrande shares
plunge after Hong Kong court orders liquidation; Hang Seng gains over 1%
UPDATED SUN, JAN 28 20241 1:12 PM EST
Shares of Chinese property developer Evergrande plummeted
after Hong Kong’s high court ordered
the liquidation of the firm on Monday.
Trading in its shares was halted
at about 10:18 a.m. Hong Kong time after plunging 20% in volatile trading.
Subsidaries Evergrande
Property Services and Evergrande New
Energy Vehicle Group called
for trading halts, according to filings with the Hong Kong exchange.
Evergrande overseas creditors
failed to reach an 11th-hour restructuring deal this weekend, the Wall Street Journal reported.
China’s CSI 300 index fell 0.26%,
driven by losses in Shenzhen, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index rose
over 1.21%.
In Singapore, its central bank left
policy unchanged as expected on Monday in its first quarterly
monetary policy decision of 2024. The Monetary Authority of Singapore said it
will maintain its exchange rate policy band known as the Singapore dollar
nominal effective exchange rate or S$NEER.
This week’s major events will be
China’s factory activity figures for January as well as Australia’s
fourth-quarter inflation figures on Wednesday. This will be last set of key
data before the Reserve Bank of Australia’s meeting on Feb. 5.
On Wednesday, Taiwan and Hong
Kong will also release their fourth-quarter GDP numbers.
In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 edged
0.2% higher as traders returned after a long weekend.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 rebounded
from Friday’s losses and rose 0.94%, while the broad based Topix climbed 1.26%.
South Korea’s Kospi was
up 1.1%, and the small-cap Kosdaq slipped 0.17%.
more
Asia markets live
updates: Evergrande, Singapore MAS, Hong Kong GDP, Fed (cnbc.com)
China
securities regulator suspends restricted share lending from Monday
China’s securities
regulator said on Sunday that it will fully suspend the lending of restricted
shares effective from Monday, in policymakers’ latest attempt to stabilize the
country’s stock markets following recent sharp falls.
A string of
supportive policies by Beijing including a deep cut to bank
reserves helped lift Chinese stocks off 5-year lows early last week but
they retreated again on Friday, reflecting deep investor pessimism over the
outlook for markets and the shaky economy.
Analysts and
investors say Beijing needs to roll out more support measures to revive
consumer and business confidence and get activity back on a more solid footing.
Restricted shares are
often offered to company employees or investors with certain limits on their
sale, but they can be lent to others for trading purposes, such as
short-selling, which can add pressure on markets during a prolonged slump.
Sunday’s move will
“highlight fairness and reasonableness, reduce the efficiency of securities
lending, and restrict the advantages of institutions in the use of information
and tools, giving all types of investors more time to digest market information
and creating a fairer market order,” the China Securities Regulatory
Commission (CSRC) said a statement published on its official WeChat account.
The CSRC added that
the move would “resolutely” crack down on illegal activities that use
securities lending to reduce holdings and cash out.
The regulator also
said it will limit the efficiency of some securities lending in the securities
refinancing market from March 18.
Last October, the
CSRC restricted securities lending businesses and tightened scrutiny
of improper regulatory arbitrage by imposing higher margin requirements.
China’s stock market
tumbled in 2023 and has extended its slide in the new year. Though the
blue-chip CSI300 Index .CSI300 has recovered some ground, it still
down about 3% year-to-date.
Small Chinese
investors are scrambling even harder than foreigners to exit the
crumbling stock markets, sending premiums on global index funds skyrocketing as
they search for exposure to anything but the sputtering domestic economy.
China’s economy grew
5.2% for 2023, slightly above the government’s target, but the comparison was
flattered by a weak, lockdown-hit 2022 and the recovery has been highly uneven.
December data showed
lackluster consumption and the fastest fall in home prices for nine years, with
the property market in a deep crisis.
Both Shanghai and
Shenzhen stock exchanges said they will suspend securities lending by strategic
investors during lockup periods, effective from Jan. 29.
China
securities regulator suspends restricted share lending from Monday (cnbc.com)
Stock futures
fall ahead of big tech earnings and Fed meeting decision: Live updates
UPDATED MON, JAN 29 2024 12:37 AM EST
U.S. stock futures were mixed on Monday morning
as Wall Street looked toward several mega-cap tech earnings reports and the
Federal Reserve’s rate policy decision.
Futures tied
to the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 58 points, or 0.15%. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures were
little changed.
The three major averages all rose
during the previous trading week following encouraging economic data. Economic
growth in the fourth quarter was stronger than expected, while core
inflation on a yearly basis was lower than economists had
expected, suggesting a cooldown in price increases. However, the market’s gains
were more muted compared to the prior week’s rally after notable companies such
as Intel and Tesla disappointed on the earnings front.
This week marks the busiest week
of the earnings season, with 19% of the S&P 500 reporting earnings.
Mega-cap tech names Microsoft, Apple, Meta, Amazon and Alphabet —
part of the core group of big tech companies that have led this year’s rally —
will be posting their results. Investors will also keep an eye on several Dow
components reporting their quarterly earnings, including Boeing and Merck.
Meanwhile, the Federal Open
Market Committee will begin its two-day policy meeting on Tuesday. Investors
are nearly certain the central bank will keep rates steady. Traders in the fed
funds futures market assigned an almost 97% probability the Fed will not cut
rates at the upcoming meeting, according to the CME Group.
Sonu Varghese, global macro
strategist at Carson Group, believes “the Fed doesn’t really have to worry
about a hot economy stoking inflation anymore, because we literally see the
opposite. The economy is running above trend and inflation is coming down. Based
on that, in terms of portfolio allocation, we’re overweight equities.”
To be sure, he added that while
the Fed will likely reduce rates later this year, “and maybe lead to some
capital appreciation, [it will] probably not be as much as the market is
expecting.”
Stock
futures fall ahead of big tech earnings and Fed meeting decision: Live updates
(cnbc.com)
Oil prices
higher after Iran-linked drone strikes kill three U.S. troops, Biden vows
retaliation
Oil prices advanced early Monday after missiles
launched by Iran-backed militants killed U.S. troops in Jordan on the weekend.
Global
benchmark Brent traded
0.57% higher at $84.03 a barrel, while the U.S. West Texas
Intermediate futures
rose 0.6% to $78.48 per barrel.
According to the White House, three U.S. service members
were killed and many injured in an unmanned aerial drone attack on forces
stationed in a northeast Jordan outpost near the Syria border on Sunday. They
were the first American fatalities from enemy attacks since Israel’s war with
Hamas began on Oct. 7.
“While we are still gathering the
facts of this attack, we know it was carried out by radical
Iran-backed militant groups operating in Syria and Iraq,” U.S. President Joe Biden said in a statement.
“Have no doubt — we will hold all
those responsible to account at a time and in a manner our choosing,” he said.
The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed responsibility for the weekend
drone attack on the Jordan-Syria border alongside attacks on
two other bases, pledging support for the “steadfast Palestinian people in the
Gaza Strip.”
The attack marked an escalation in
the Middle East, which saw tensions rise after Israel declared war on
Palestinian militant group Hamas following an unprecedented terror attack on
Oct. 7, which killed some 1,200 people in Israel. Since the start of the war, more than 26,000 people have been killed
in the Gaza Strip.
It comes close on the heels of
attacks by Yemen-based Houthi
rebels on an oil tanker transiting the Red Sea on Friday. A
petroleum products tanker vessel, operated on behalf of Trafigura, caught fire
after it was struck by a missile in the Gulf of Aden.
Oil
prices higher after Iran-linked drone strikes kill U.S. troops (cnbc.com)
What is Tower 22,
site of the attack on US troops in Jordan?
January 29, 2024 1:06
AM GMT
Jan 28 (Reuters) - Three
U.S. troops were killed and dozens wounded after a drone hit a military outpost in
Jordan known as Tower 22.
Here is what is known about the base:
LOCATION
Tower 22 holds a strategically
important location in Jordan, at the most
northeastern point where the country's borders meet Syria and Iraq.
PURPOSE
Little is publicly known about the base. But it includes
logistics support and there are 350 U.S. Army and Air Force troops at the base.
Tower 22 is near Al Tanf
garrison, which is located across the border in Syria, and which houses a small
number of U.S. troops. Tanf had been key in the fight against Islamic State and
has assumed a role as part of a U.S. strategy to contain Iran's military
build-up in eastern Syria.
Tower 22 is located close enough to U.S. troops at Tanf that it
could potentially help support them, while also potentially countering
Iran-backed militants in the area and allowing troops to keep an eye on
remnants of Islamic State in the region.
U.S. TROOPS IN JORDAN
Jordan's army is one of the largest recipients of Washington's
foreign military financing.
The kingdom has hundreds of U.S. trainers and is one of the few
regional allies that hold extensive exercises with U.S. troops throughout the
year.
Since the start of the Syrian conflict in 2011, Washington has
spent hundreds of millions of dollars to help Amman set up an elaborate
surveillance system known as the Border Security Programme to stem infiltration
by militants from Syria and Iraq.
MANY UNKNOWNS
It is unclear what type of weapons are kept at the base, air
defenses used, and what exactly went wrong.
What
is Tower 22, site of the attack on US troops in Jordan? | Reuters
Finally, rising shipping difficulties are now
starting to impact the global economy.
Houthi attacks in the Red Sea are idling car
factories and delaying new fashion. Will it get worse?
January 28, 2024
WASHINGTON (AP) — Car
factories have idled in Belgium and Germany. Spring fashion lines are delayed
at a popular British department store. A Maryland company that makes hospital
supplies doesn’t know when to expect parts from Asia.
Attacks on ships in the Red Sea are delivering another shock to global trade,
coming on top of pandemic-related logjams at ports and Russia's invasion of
Ukraine.
Houthi rebels in Yemen, seeking to stop Israel's offensive
against Hamas in Gaza, are attacking cargo ships plying the waters connecting
Asia with Europe and the United States, forcing traffic away from the Suez
Canal and around the tip of Africa. The disruption is causing delays and driving up costs — at a time
when the world has yet to vanquish a resurgence of inflation.
“What’s
happened right now is short-term chaos, and chaos leads to increased
costs," said Ryan Petersen, CEO of the supply chain management company
Flexport. “Every ship that gets rerouted has 10,000 containers on it. It’s a
lot of emails and phone calls getting made to replan each of those container
journeys."
Adding to
the bedlam in global shipping is what Petersen calls a “double
whammy": Passage through another crucial trade corridor — the Panama Canal — is restricted by low water levels caused by
drought. And shippers are in a rush to move goods before Chinese factories shut
down for the Feb. 10-17 Lunar New Year holiday.
The threat
grows considerably the longer the war in Gaza drags on. Disruption to Red Sea
trade lasting a year could surge goods inflation by up to 2%, Petersen says,
piling on pain while the world already struggles with higher prices for groceries, rent and more. That also could mean
even higher interest rates, which have weakened economies.
For now, Man & Machine in
Greater Landover, Maryland, is awaiting a shipment from Taiwan and greater
China. It’s been one setback after another for the company, which makes
washable keyboards and accessories for hospitals and other customers.
Founder and CEO Clifton
Broumand usually gets a shipment of components about once a month, but the
latest delivery, which departed Asia four weeks ago, is delayed. The normal
route — three weeks via the Suez Canal — has been shut down by the Houthi attacks.
Rerouting to the Panama Canal
didn’t work either — the shipment was stymied there by the drought-related
mess. Now, it might have to cross the Pacific to Los Angeles and come by truck
or train to Maryland. Broumand has no idea when the products will arrive.
----Other industries are
seeing similar hassles.
Electric carmaker Tesla has to shut down its factory near Berlin from Monday to Feb. 11 because of
shipment delays. The Chinese-owned Swedish car brand Volvo idled its assembly
line in Ghent, Belgium, where it makes station wagons and SUVs, for three days
this month while waiting for a key part for transmissions.
Production at a Suzuki Motor Corp.
plant in Hungary stopped for a week because of a delay in getting engines and
other parts from Japan.
The British retail chain Marks &
Spencer warned that the turmoil would delay new spring clothing and home goods
collections that were due in February and March. Chief executive Stuart Machin
said the Red Sea trouble was “impacting everyone and something we’re very
focused on."
More
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Fed’s
favorite inflation gauge rose 0.2% in December and was up 2.9% from a year ago
PUBLISHED FRI, JAN 26 2024 8:31
AM EST UPDATED FRI, JAN 26 2024 10:22 AM EST
An important inflation gauge
released Friday showed that the rate of price increases cooled as 2023 came to
a close.
The Commerce Department’s
personal consumption expenditures price index for December, an important gauge
for the Federal Reserve, increased 0.2% on the month and was up 2.9% on a
yearly basis, excluding food and energy. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had
been looking for respective increases of 0.2% and 3%.
On a monthly basis, core
inflation increased from 0.1% in November. However, the annual rate declined
from 3.2%. The 12-month rate is the lowest since March 2021.
Including volatile food and
energy costs, headline inflation also rose 0.2% for the month and held steady
at 2.6% annually.
The release adds to evidence that
inflation, while still elevated, is continuing to make progress lower, possibly
giving the Fed a green light to start cutting interest rates later this year.
The central bank targets 2% as a healthy annual inflation rate.
Markets took little notice of the
data, with stock futures indicating only a slight change at the open and
Treasury yields mostly lower.
“Inflation dynamics inside the
metric that the Fed uses to formulate policy strongly imply that the central
bank will hit its inflation target in the near term,” said Joseph Brusuelas,
chief economist at RSM. “This will create the conditions in which it makes
[its] policy pivot and begins a multiyear campaign in which it reduces the
policy rate towards a range between 2.5% and 3%.”
The Fed’s benchmark overnight
interest rate is currently targeted between 5.25%-5.5%.
As inflation drifted closer to
the Fed’s target, consumer spending increased 0.7%, stronger than the 0.5%
estimate. Personal income growth edged lower to 0.3%, in line with the
forecast.
The data indicated that consumers
are dipping into savings to pay for their expenditures. The personal savings
rate fell to 3.7% for the month, down from 4.1% in November.
Within the inflation numbers,
prices for goods declined by 0.2% while services prices rose by 0.3%, reversing
a trend when inflation began to spike. As the pandemic forced people to stay
home more, demand for goods spiked, adding to supply chain problems and
exacerbating price increases.
Food prices increased 0.1% on the
month while energy goods and services rose 0.3%. Prices for longer-lasting
durable goods such as appliances, computers and vehicles decreased 0.4%.
Looked at in conjunction with a
separate report Thursday showing that gross domestic product grew at a much
faster-than-expected 3.3% pace in the fourth quarter, the most recent round of
data shows an expanding economy and inflation at least moving back to the Fed’s
2% annual target.
----While the public more closely follows the Labor Department’s consumer
price index, Fed policymakers prefer the PCE because it adjusts for shifts in
what consumers actually buy, while the CPI measures prices in the marketplace.
Inflation has been a nettlesome
problem since the early days of the Covid pandemic, when price increases surged
to their highest levels since the early 1980s. The Fed initially expected the
acceleration to be temporary, then responded with a series of interest rate
hikes that took its benchmark rate to its highest in more than 22 years.
Now, with the inflation rate
cooling markets largely expect the Fed to start unwinding its policy
tightening. As of Friday morning, futures traders were assigning about a 53%
chance the Fed will enact its first rate cut this cycle in March, according to CME
Group data. Pricing points to six quarter-percentage point decreases this year.
PCE inflation December 2023: (cnbc.com)
Covid-19 Corner
This
section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
EXCLUSIVE: Email
Reveals Why CDC Didn’t Issue Alert on COVID Vaccines and Myocarditis
CDC officials were worried
about causing panic.
1/25/2024 Updated: 1/26/2024
The nation’s
top public health agency didn’t send an alert about a connection between
COVID-19 vaccines and heart inflammation because officials were concerned they
would cause panic, according to an email obtained by The Epoch Times.
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and
Prevention in 2021 drafted an alert about
the risk of heart inflammation, or myocarditis, resulting from Pfizer-BioNTech
and Moderna COVID-19 vaccines. Officials prepared to release it to the public,
taking steps including having the agency’s director review the language,
internal documents show.
The alert
would have been sent through the CDC’s Health Alert Network (HAN), which goes
to state and local officials, as well as doctors, across the country.
The alert was
never sent.
In the May 25,
2021, email, exclusively obtained by The Epoch Times, a CDC official revealed
why some officials were against sending the alert.
“The pros and
cons of an official HAN are what the main discussion are right now,” Dr. Sara
Oliver, the official, wrote in the missive. “I think it’s likely to be a HAN
since that is CDC’s primary method of communications to clinicians and public
health departments, but people don’t want to appear alarmist either.”
Dr. Oliver was
corresponding with an employee of either Pfizer or Moderna. The employee’s name
and email were redacted in the copy obtained by The Epoch Times.
Dr. Oliver
didn’t respond to a request for comment. Asked about the email, the CDC didn’t
address Dr. Oliver’s statement.
The “CDC’s apparent decision to not
immediately issue a formal alert to clinicians warning them about the increased
risk of myocarditis and pericarditis in vaccinated individuals is not only
inexcusable, it’s malpractice,” Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), the top Republican
on the Senate Homeland Security Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations, told
The Epoch Times in an email.
More
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Today, the electric tugboat. But note
the need for diesel engine backup.
First electric ship-assist tug in the US gets ready
for harbor service
Paul Ridden January 24, 2024
Back in 2021, Crowley commissioned the building of the first
electric tug to assist ships in a US harbor. Now the company has taken delivery
of the eWolf, ahead of operational duty at the
Port of San Diego later this year.
Designed by Crowley engineers and constructed by Master Boat
Builders at its Alabama shipyard, the four-berth, ABS Class eWolf has a total
length of 82 ft (~25 m) and a 40-ft (12-m) beam, features bow and stern
electric winches, and has a bollard pull strength of 70 tons. The lack of
exhaust stacks gives the pilot 360-degree, obstruction-free views around the
vessel.
The build specifications show a 6.2-MWh modular battery system onboard,
which can be upgraded as new technologies are developed, and the vessel has
been designed to provide two ship-assist jobs in the harbor per charge.
The battery pack provides the juice for an ABB propulsion system
comprising two 2,100-kW motors powering a pair of thrusters for a top speed of
12 knots – though the tug does also sport two small diesel generators for
emergency use, or to travel farther than battery alone would allow.
The eWolf will enter service at the Port of San Diego later this year,
when installation of a shoreside, microgrid charging and storage station has
been completed. Crowley expects the eWolf to save some 178 tons of NOx, 2.5
tons of diesel particulates, and 3,100 metric tons of CO2 in its first 10 years
of operation, compared to a conventional tug.
"The eWolf will provide services through its advanced vessel
control technology and first-in-class energy features, while providing the
safety, quality and reliability that Crowley and our mariners are known
for," said SVP and general manager at Crowley Shipping, James Fowler.
"We are thrilled to reach this important achievement for our company and
the US maritime industry through the collaboration with our partners."
First electric ship-assist tug in the US gets ready
for harbor service (newatlas.com)
In central banking as in diplomacy, style, conservative
tailoring, and an easy association with the affluent count greatly and results
far much less.
John Kenneth Galbraith.
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