Baltic Dry Index. 1503 +146 Brent Crude 78.39
Spot Gold 2020 US 2 Year Yield 4.39 +0.05
You have to
choose (as a voter) between trusting to the natural stability of gold and the
natural stability of the honesty and intelligence of the members of the
Government. And, with due respect for these gentlemen, I advise you, as long as
the Capitalist system lasts, to vote for gold.
George Bernard
Shaw, socialist.
In
the stock casinos, a mixed/disappointing start to the week following Friday’s
US revived technology stocks bubble boom.
Not
a believer in this latest bout of stock mania, nor in Friday’s U of Michigan’s Consumer
Sentiment Report findings, I would pass on this latest Wall Street bubble.
Asia markets
mixed as China’s loan prime rates remain unchanged; Japan hits new 33-year
highs
UPDATED MON, JAN 22 2024 12:23 AM EST
Asia-Pacific markets were mixed on Monday as
China kept its loan prime rates unchanged, as expected.
The Nikkei 225 hit
a near 34-year high, trading at 36,438, last up about 1.28%. The Topix rose
1.09%.
On the other hand, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index fell
2%, led by real estate stocks after the People’s Bank of China left the one-
and five-year loan prime rates left unchanged at 3.45% and 4.2%. China’s CSI
300 index slid 0.42%.
The Bank of Japan kicked off its
two-day monetary policy meeting today, and will announce its monetary policy
decision on Tuesday.
Later in the week, Japan will
release its trade balances for December on Tuesday and January inflation
numbers for Tokyo on Friday.
In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 ended
0.75% higher at 7,476.60, extending gains from Friday and starting the week on
a positive note.
South Korea’s Kospi was
flat, while the small-cap Kosdaq dipped 0.32%.
South Korea will also release its
gross domestic product figures for the fourth quarter of 2023 on Wednesday.
On Friday in the U.S., the S&P500 index rose
1.23% to settle at 4,839.81, crossing both the record intraday and closing
highs from January 2022.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average,
which set its own all-time high at the end of last year, added 1.05%, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced
1.70%.
Real estate stocks drag Hang Seng to be biggest loser among
Asian benchmarks
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index tumbled
over 2%, led by real estate stocks after the People’s Bank of China held its
one-year and five-year loan prime rates at 3.45% and 4.2%, respectively.
The largest loser
on the HSI was property developer China
Resources Land,
which plunged 9.54%.
Other stocks on the
biggest losers list also included residential property services investment firm Longfor
Group,
which lost 5.99%, as well as hotpot chain Haidilao,
which declined 6.27%.
Asia markets live
updates: US S&P 500 all-time high, China LPR unchanged (cnbc.com)
Stock futures are
little changed as Wall Street looks for S&P 500 to build on fresh all-time
high: Live updates
UPDATED SUN, JAN 21 2024 7:03 PM EST
Stock futures were little changed on Sunday
evening, with investors looking to build on the S&P 500′s fresh all-time
high from Friday.
Futures tied to the benchmark S&P 500 added
0.1%, while Nasdaq 100 futures gained
0.2%. Dow Jones
Industrial Average futures ticked
up 37 points, or 0.1%.
Stocks roared back to life on Friday after
losing ground earlier in the week. The S&P 500 broke both its intraday and
closing record from January of 2022. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and
tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite also closed higher, with all three major indexes
now in the green so far in 2024. Friday’s gain officially signaled that Wall
Street is indeed in a bull market stemming from an October 2022 low.
Tech stood out among S&P 500
sectors on Friday, gaining 2.35% on the day and 4% on the week.
Wall Street’s strength will
seemingly depend on whether or not the U.S. central bank will capture an
economic soft landing. Investors are hoping for a series of benchmark interest
rate cuts beginning in March, although they are less sure the initial cut will
come to fruition.
Data from the CME Group’s
FedWatch Tool as of Friday shows investors are now pricing in a roughly 47%
chance of a Fed rate cut in March, a steep decrease from 81% a week earlier.
More
Stock
futures tk, Wall Street looks to extend bull market run (cnbc.com)
Two important
events this week could determine the future of Fed rate policy
Markets have become less convinced that the
Federal Reserve is ready to press the button on interest rate cuts, an issue
that cuts at the heart of where the economy and stocks are headed.
Two big economic reports coming up
this week could go a long way toward determining at least which way the central
bank policymakers could lean — and how markets might react to a turn in
monetary policy.
Investors will get their first look
at the broad picture of fourth-quarter economic growth for 2023 when the
Commerce Department releases its initial gross domestic product estimate on
Thursday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones are expecting the total of all goods
and services produced in the U.S. economy to have grown at a 1.7% pace for the
final three months of 2023, which would be the slowest since the 0.6% decline
in Q2 of 2022.
A day later, the Commerce
Department will release the December reading on the personal consumption
expenditures price index, a favorite Fed inflation gauge. The consensus
expectation for core
PCE prices, which exclude the volatile food and energy components,
is 0.2% growth for the month and 3% for the full year.
Both data points should garner a lot of attention,
particularly the inflation numbers, which have been trending towards the Fed’s
2% goal but aren’t there yet.
“That’s the thing
that everybody should be watching to determine what the Fed’s rate path will
end up being,” Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said during an interview
Friday on CNBC. “It’s not about secret meetings or decisions. It’s
fundamentally about the data and what will enable us to become less restrictive
if we have clear evidence that we’re on the path to get” inflation back to
target.
Lowered rate-cut outlook
The releases come
amid a market snapback about where the Fed is heading.
As of Friday afternoon, trading in the fed funds
futures market equated to virtually no chance the rate-setting Federal Open
Market Committee will cut at its Jan. 30-31 meeting, according to CME Group
data as indicated through its FedWatch Tool. That’s nothing new, but the
odds for a cut at the March meeting fell to 47.2%, a steep slide from 81% just
a week ago.
Along with that,
traders have taken one expected cut off the table, reducing the outlook for
easing to five quarter percentage point decreases from six previously.
More
Two
important events this week could determine the future of Fed rate policy
(cnbc.com)
In
commodities news, crude oil demand is signalling a global slowdown ahead
despite shipping trouble in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.
Oil struggles to steady as economic headwinds weigh on demand
outlook
By Mohi Narayan and Florence Tan
January
22, 2024 4:09 AM GMT
NEW DELHI, Jan 22 (Reuters) - Oil prices struggled
to push ahead on Monday as economic headwinds pressured the global oil demand
outlook and offset geopolitical concerns in the Middle East and an attack on a
Russian fuel export terminal over the weekend.
Brent crude fell 9 cents, or 0.1%, to $78.47 a
barrel by 0353 GMT after settling down 54 cents on Friday.
The front-month U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude
futures , for February delivery, inched up 11 cents to $73.52 a barrel with the
contract set to expire later on Monday. The more active March WTI contract was
at $73.21 a barrel, down 4 cents.
"This morning's subdued
re-open speaks volumes about current sentiment in the crude oil market despite
ongoing geopolitical tensions in Europe and the Middle East," IG analyst
Tony Sycamore said.
Prices barely budged despite an alleged Ukrainian drone attack
at a huge Russian fuel export terminal. Russian
producer Novatek (NVTK.MM) said on Sunday it had been
forced to suspend some operations at the Baltic Sea terminal because of a fire.
In the absence any major
escalation, crude is set for rangebound trading, with some downward pressure,
said Vandana Hari, founder of oil market analysis provider Vanda Insights.
In the Middle East, the Gaza war rages on while the U.S. struck another anti-ship
missile preparing to launch into the Gulf of Aden by Yemen's Houthi militants
on Saturday.
The attacks by the Iran-aligned group in the Red
Sea and the Gulf of Aden have disrupted global trade. It has also tightened European and African
crude markets and pushed the premium of the first-month Brent contract to the
six-month contract to $1.99 on Friday, the widest since November. This
structure, called backwardation, indicates a perception of tighter supply for prompt
delivery.
IG's Sycamore said oil
fundamentals remain a headwind for prices.
Oil "production is higher and the growth outlook in China
and Europe is mixed at best, while GDP data this week is expected to show the
velocity of the U.S. economy has slowed considerably," he added.
The latest demand growth forecasts by the U.S. Energy
Information Administration, the International Energy Agency and the
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries for 2024 are in a wide range
between 1.24 million and 2.25 million barrels per day although all the three
organizations expect demand to decelerate in 2025.
The number of oil rigs operating in the U.S.
fell by two to 497 last week, their lowest since mid November, Baker Hughes
data showed on Friday.
Oil
struggles to steady as economic headwinds weigh on demand outlook | Reuters
We have gold
because we cannot trust governments.
Herbert Hoover.
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Shock
fall in retail sales over Christmas period - far worse than predicted
January 19, 2024
There has been a shock fall in retail sales in the key December shopping period, sharpening the decline seen in recent months, official figures show.
Data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said sales fell an unexpected 3.2%, despite Christmas and reported discounts offered by major chains and some positive reports by major high street outfits.
Not since the middle of the COVID-19
pandemic lockdown, in January 2021, had
retail sales fallen at such a level.
It has been a far worse performance
than the 0.5% drop expected by economists and a reversal of the 1.4% growth seen in November when
discounts got people spending.
Those early discounts, such as Black Friday deals, tempted shoppers to
spread the cost and get buying earlier which had a knock-on effect on December,
the ONS said.
Falls in sales were across the board.
Food stores "performed very
poorly" due to early Christmas shopping while department stores, clothes
shops and household goods outlets recorded "sluggish sales" as less
was spent on Christmas gifts, the ONS said.
As a result, sales volumes descended
to the lowest level in five years.
Especially steep was the fall in
sales volumes in non-food stores, which dropped 3.9% after growing 2.7% a month
earlier.
Retail sales figures are important as
household consumption is the largest expenditure across the UK economy.
Accordingly, the data can be
indicative of overall economic growth.
The UK already had a quarter of
economic contraction from July to September last year.
A second three-month period of
economic decline would mean the UK is in recession.
Shock fall in retail sales over Christmas period - far worse than predicted (msn.com)
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
No update today. Normal service tomorrow.
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
£10-a-shot
laser weapon blasts drone out the sky in major military first
January 19, 2024
Forget Star
Wars, laser
weapons are here for real after
the UK successfully fired a high-powered beam at aerial targets.
Named DragonFire, the laser costs around £10 per
shot. In comparison, destroyer missiles can cost around £1million each.
The range of the weapon remains classified, but
the Ministry
of Defence (MoD) said in a statement that the
precision involved in the testing was equivalent to hitting a £1 coin from a
kilometre away.
It is a line-of-sight weapon and can ‘engage with any
visible target’.
According to The Times, it destroyed incoming drones
from several miles away, and could be ready for use on ships in five years.
Testing of the
system, which cost £100 million to develop, took place at the Ministry of
Defence’s Hebrides Range in Scotland.
‘These trials
have seen us take a huge step forward in realising the potential opportunities
and understanding the threats posed by directed energy weapons [DEWs],’ said Dr
Paul Hollinshead, chief executive of the MoD’s defence science and technology
laboratory (DSTL).
‘With our
decades of knowledge, skills, and operational experience, DSTL’s expertise is
critical to helping the armed forces prepare for the future.’
Laser weapons emit
electromagnetic energy at a wavelength that the target will most effectively
absorb, causing it to melt. The laser-directed energy beam can cut through
targets to disable them – or do more damage if hitting a warhead.
DEWs can also
engage with targets ‘at the speed of light’, and be used to temporarily disable
enemy attacks by ‘dazzling’ sensors – or people.
Defence
secretary Grant Shapps added: ‘This type of cutting-edge weaponry has the
potential to revolutionise the battlespace by reducing the reliance on
expensive ammunition, while also lowering the risk of collateral damage.
----Last year it was also announced that high-energy
laser weapons will be integrated
onto a Wolfhound military vehicle.
An £85 million project to build
a laser a ‘million billion billion times’ brighter than Sun was also unveiled last year. However,
theVulcan 20-20 laser will be used to revolutionise scientific research and
lead to new discoveries in areas such as clean energy and cancer treatment, not
for combat.
The UK is not alone in developing directed energy
weapons – the US and other countries are also developing their own
technology.
£10-a-shot laser weapon blasts drone out the sky in
major military first (msn.com)
Those
entrapped by the herd instinct are drowned in the deluges of history. But there
are always the few who observe, reason, and take precautions, and thus escape
the flood. For these few gold has been the asset of last resort.
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