Saturday, 13 January 2024

Special Update 13/1/2024 1914 = 2024? Stumbling Into War.

Baltic Dry Index. 1460 -94            Brent Crude 78.29

Spot Gold 2049                U S 2 Year Yield 4.14 -0.12

First they came for the Communists
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a Communist

As the USA heads off into holiday weekend MLK Jr. Day, the Great Disconnect between the stock casinos and the harsh reality on the non financialised world of everyday commerce, continues to widen with each passing month.

With the USA and the UK busy expanding the disastrous Gaza war rather than ending it, our world, as in 1914, is sleep walking and stumbling towards World War Three.

In July 1914 Kaiser Bill gave a blank cheque to Austria to make war on Serbia. In 2024 President Biden Joe Biden has given a blank cheque to Israel to make war on the Gaza Ghetto, mostly killing women and children as we and the rest of the world see on our TVs every day with almost 24 hour coverage.  When God and His angels slept, 2023 – 2024.

Gavrilo Princip didn’t intend to set off World War One when he assassinated Archduke Ferdinand in 1914, but he did. I doubt that the terrorist group Hamas intended to set off World War Three with the murderous attack on mostly unarmed Israeli civilians on October 7, 2023, but that is all too likely to be the outcome this US Presidential election year.

 

Europe stocks close higher as U.S. wholesale inflation falls; Burberry down 7%

UPDATED FRI, JAN 12 2024 11:52 AM EST

European markets closed higher Friday, rounding off a largely negative week, as investors digested fresh U.K. economic data and a fall in U.S. wholesale inflation.

The Stoxx 600 index provisionally closed 0.77% higher, with most sectors trading in positive territory.

Retail stocks climbed 1.46% despite luxury British brand Burberry trading down 7% after the company issued a profit warning in response to slowing demand, sending other luxury lines lower in morning trade.

U.S. wholesale prices, measured in the producer price index, recorded an unexpected monthly decline of 0.1% in December. Prices were up 1% annually.

The U.S. consumer inflation report released Thursday had showed an increase in consumer prices of 0.3% on the month and 3.4% year on year, higher than forecast.

Meantime, fresh data Friday showed that the U.K. economy returned to growth in November, with gross domestic product beating expectations and expanding by 0.3%.

More

European markets live updates: stocks, news and U.S. inflation data (cnbc.com)

JPMorgan Chase profit falls after $2.9 billion fee from regional bank rescues

JPMorgan Chase said Friday that fourth-quarter profit declined after paying a $2.9 billion fee tied to the government seizures of failed regional banks last year.

Here’s what the company reported versus what analysts surveyed by LSEG, formerly known as Refinitiv, expected:

  • Earnings per share: $3.04, may not compare with $3.32 expected.
  • Revenue: $39.94 billion vs. $39.78 billion expected.

The bank said quarterly earnings slipped 15% to $9.31 billion, or $3.04 per share, from a year earlier. Excluding the fee tied to the regional banking crisis and $743 million in investment losses, earnings would have been $3.97 per share, according to JPMorgan.

Revenue climbed 12% to $39.94 billion, edging out analysts’ expectations.

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said full-year results hit a record because the largest U.S. bank by assets performed better than expected on net interest income and credit quality. The bank said it generated nearly $50 billion of profit in 2023, $4.1 billion of which came from First Republic.

Just as it did during the 2008 financial crisis, JPMorgan emerged larger and more profitable from last year’s regional banking chaos after acquiring First Republic, a midsize lender to wealthy coastal families. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation hit large U.S. banks with a special assessment to replenish losses from a fund that helped uninsured depositors of seized regional banks.

---- Despite his bank’s performance, Dimon struck a cautious note on the American economy.

“The U.S. economy continues to be resilient, with consumers still spending, and markets currently expect a soft landing,” Dimon said in the release.

But deficit spending and supply chain adjustments “may lead inflation to be stickier and rates to be higher than markets expect,” he said. Risks to markets and economies include central banks’ steps to rein in support programs and wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, he added.

“These significant and somewhat unprecedented forces cause us to remain cautious,” he said.

While the bank has navigated the rate environment capably since the Federal Reserve began raising rates in early 2022, smaller peers have seen their profits squeezed.

The industry has been forced to pay up for deposits as customers shift cash into higher-yielding instruments, squeezing margins. At the same time, rising yields mean the bonds owned by banks fell in value, creating unrealized losses that pressure capital levels.

Concern is also mounting over rising losses from commercial loans, especially office building debt, and higher defaults on credit cards.

More

JPMorgan Chase (JPM) earnings Q4 2023 (cnbc.com)

Bank of America shares fall after company reports lower fourth-quarter profit, hit by regulatory charge

Bank of America shares fell 1.1% Friday after the firm reported declining fourth-quarter earnings amid hefty one-time charges.

Here’s what the company reported compared to Wall Street expectations, according to LSEG, formerly known as Refinitiv:

  • Earnings per share: 70 cents, adjusted vs. 68 cents expected.
  • Revenue: $22.1 billion vs. $23.74 billion expected.

Bank of America said its net income fell to $3.1 billion, or 35 cents per share, in the fourth quarter, down more than 50% from $7.1 billion, or 85 cents per share, a year ago.

The bank, based in Charlotte, North Carolina, said it was hit by a pretax charge of $1.6 billion in the quarter related to the transition away from the London Interbank Offered Rate. The results also included a special $2.1 billion fee charged by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. The fee is tied to the failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. Excluding items, the company said it earned 70 cents per share, which outpaced analysts’ expectations.

However, revenue of $22.1 billion fell short of Wall Street’s estimates for the first time in two years and was down 10% from the year-ago period.

More

Bank of America (BAC) earnings Q4 2023 (cnbc.com)

Next, with a US presidential election due in November and President Biden trailing his likely opponent former President Trump in the polls, meet War President Biden Joe Biden.

US military strikes another Houthi-controlled site after warning ships to avoid parts of Red Sea

Updated 4:09 AM GMT, January 13, 2024

WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. military early Saturday struck another Houthi-controlled site in Yemen that it had determined was putting commercial vessels in the Red Sea at risk, a day after the U.S. and Britain launched multiple airstrikes targeting Houthi rebels.

Associated Press journalists in Sanaa, Yemen’s capital, heard one loud explosion.

U.S. Central Command said the “follow-on action” early Saturday local time against a Houthi radar site was conducted by the Navy destroyer USS Carney using Tomahawk land attack missiles.

The first day of strikes Friday hit 28 locations and struck more than 60 targets. President Joe Biden had warned Friday that the Houthis could face further strikes.

The latest strike came after the U.S. Navy on Friday warned American-flagged vessels to steer clear of areas around Yemen in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden for the next 72 hours after the initial airstrikes. The warning came as Yemen’s Houthis vowed fierce retaliation, further raising the prospect of a wider conflict in a region already beset by Israel’s war in Gaza.

U.S. military and White House officials said they expected the Houthis to try to strike back.

More

US military strikes another Houthi-controlled site after warning ships to avoid parts of Red Sea | AP News

 

Biden Takes Election Year Gamble With Yemen Strikes

January 12, 2024

President Joe Biden is balancing political rewards and risks after launching air strikes on Yemen right as the 2024 US election campaign ramps up.

The 81-year-old Democrat will hope the strikes on Huthi rebels project an image of strength at home and abroad, countering criticism of his leadership by Republicans led by Donald Trump.

But the risk of further inflaming the Middle East after the October 7 Hamas attacks on Israel will weigh heavily on a president who had vowed to extract America from its "forever wars" in the region.

The immediate tone from Biden was tough, saying Washington and its allies had sent a "clear message" that they "will not tolerate" further attacks on shipping in the Red Sea, one of the world's most important sea lanes.

"We will make sure we respond to the Huthis if they continue this outrageous behavior," Biden told reporters on an election campaign trip in the battleground state of Pennsylvania.

"I don’t think the strikes will politically help or hurt Joe Biden as long as they remain limited," Garret Martin, who teaches at American University in Washington, told AFP.

More

Biden Takes Election Year Gamble With Yemen Strikes | Barron's (barrons.com)

Finally, more on so you really, really, really want an EV. Well not if you are car rental firm Hertz.

Rental giant Hertz dumps EVs, including Teslas, for gas cars

By Nathan Gomes and Joseph White 

Jan 11 (Reuters) - Rental firm Hertz Global Holdings (HTZ.O) is selling about 20,000 electric vehicles, including Teslas, from its U.S. fleet about two years after a deal with the automaker to offer its vehicles for rent, in another sign that EV demand has cooled.

 

Hertz will instead opt for gas-powered vehicles, it said on Thursday, citing higher expenses related to collision and damage for EVs even though it had aimed to convert 25% of its fleet to electric by 2024 end.

CEO Stephen Scherr had last year at the JPMorgan Auto Conference flagged headwinds from higher expenses for its EVs, particularly Teslas.

Hertz even limited the torque and speed on the EVs and offered it to experienced users on the platform to make them easier to adapt after certain users had front-end collisions, he said.

Shares of the company, which also operates vehicles from Swedish EV maker Polestar among others, fell about 4%. Tesla's (TSLA.O) stock was down about 3%.

Hertz also expects about $245 million in charges related to depreciation expenses from the EV sale in the fourth quarter of 2023.

BUMPY ROAD FOR EV GROWTH

Its decision underscores the bumpy road EVs have hit as their sales growth slows, causing carmakers like General Motors (GM.N) and Ford (F.N) to scale back production plans.

Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas said in a note Hertz's move was another sign that EV expectations need to be "reset downward".

More

Rental giant Hertz dumps EVs, including Teslas, for gas cars | Reuters

Electric London buses 'must be withdrawn until they're declared safe' as burned out double-decker moved from Wimbledon fire scene

January 12, 2024

London's electric buses should be withdrawn from service until they are declared safe following a fire in Wimbledon yesterday morning (Thursday, January 11), a Conservative London Assembly member has said. The damaged vehicle has been moved from the scene of the incident after the route number 200 caught fire with passengers onboard.

The back of the double-decker is missing windows and part of it has been badly blackened by the heat, a photo of it being removed shows. The route number, 200, remains visible.

video of the incident posted yesterday showed billowing clouds of black smoke filling Wimbledon Hill and Alwyne Road as the bus stood stationary aflame. In the clip firefighters and police can be seen at the scene dealing with the incident. No injuries as a result of the fire have been reported.

Now, City Hall Conservatives' transport spokesperson, Keith Prince AM, has said that the vehicles must be withdrawn from service after the incident to safeguard customers' safety. He said: "We're calling on Sadiq Khan to withdraw these electric buses until the cause of the Wimbledon bus fire is understood.

"We're also calling for urgent checks on the remaining electric buses in the fleet to ensure they are safe. Londoners need to have confidence that their bus is safe and won't burst into flames.

More

Electric London buses 'must be withdrawn until they're declared safe' as burned out double-decker moved from Wimbledon fire scene (msn.com)

Then they came for the Jews
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a Jew

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.   

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,  inflation/recession now needs an entire section of its own.

US Budget Deficit Soars By 50% In December As Fiscal Collapse Under Biden Accelerates

THURSDAY, JAN 11, 2024 - 08:23 PM

Remember when we showed that the "stealth" secret sauce behind Bidenomics was nothing more than a massive, multi-trillion debt-fueled spending spree, which led to the biggest peactime, non-crisis budget deficit in US history, with the total deficit for fiscal 2023 ending just over $2 trillion, or double the prior year, something which BofA's Michael Hartnett called the "era of fiscal excess"?

Well, we have news for you: if 2023 was bad, 2024 an election year of course is shaping up to be far worse.

Moments ago the US Treasury reported the budget deficit picture for December and it will come as no surprise to anyone that the US has continued to spend like a drunken sailor, or rather, even more. As shown in the chart below, in the month of December, the US collected $429 billion through various taxes, while total outlays hit $559 billion...

... resulting in a December deficit of $129.4 billion.

This may not sound like a lot, but December is actually one of those months when the US deficit is relatively tame, or used to be.

As shown in the next chart, traditionally the December deficit was barely in the $10-20BN range... until 2020 when it exploded to an all time high of $140BN. And while it dropped sharply in 2021, it rebounded dramatically in 2022, and rose to just shy of the December crisis high last month!

Here is some more context: tax receipts of $429.3BN in December were down 5.6% from the $454.9BN in December 2022 and down a whopping 11.8% from December 2021. On an LTM basis, US total tax receipts were $4.521TN, or down 7.2% YoY. This is now the 9th consecutive YoY decline in LTM tax receipts, something that historically has only taken place when the US was in a recession. As an aside, the "smart economists" were certain that the collapse in tax receipts would reverse after November when the postponed California taxes would be collected. Well, November has come and gone and the big picture is just as ugly.

Looking at outlays, unlike tax receipts, there is danger of a decline... ever; and indeed in December the US spent a total of $559 billion, up 3.5% from the $540BN spent a year ago, and up even more from the $508BN in 2021. On a 6 month moving average basis, we are rapidly approaching the exponential phase even when accounting for the spending burst in 2020 and 2021.

Putting it all together, we get the scariest chart of all: the YTD budget deficit three months into fiscal 2024 is already $509 billion, which would be the biggest deficit in US history after one quarter with the exception of the covid outlier year of 2021 when the US injected multiple trillions in stimmies.

As for the final, and most shocking, data point, the December budget deficit of $129.4 billion was more than $40BN higher than the $87.5BN median estimate, and was more than 50% higher compared to the $85BN December deficit in fiscal 2022.

Needless to say, this is completely unsustainable and assures fiscal collapse for the US, not if, but when. Then again, we already knew this thanks to the CBO which was kind enough to chart the endgame:

More

US Budget Deficit Soars By 50% In December As Fiscal Collapse Under Biden Accelerates | ZeroHedge

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

Study Shows Cannabis Has The Potential To Prevent And Treat Covid-19

Jan 11, 2024,02:44pm EST

Compounds in cannabis have the potential to prevent and treat Covid-19, according to a review of research published last month. The study found that cannabis compounds known as cannabinoids could prevent infection by SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19, as well as lessen the severity of the disease after it has been contracted.

“Cannabinoids have the potential to be used as a preventive approach to limiting the susceptibility and severity of COVID-19 infections by preventing viral entry, mitigating oxidative stress, and alleviating the associated cytokine storm,” the authors of the study wrote.

The study, which was reported by cannabis new source Marijuana Moment on Wednesday, was conducted by researchers at Dalhousie University in Nova Scotia, Canada, who conducted a thorough review of the available scientific literature. The research focused on numerous prior studies that investigated how endocannabinoid system (ECS) modulation might affect patients in the early and post-infection stages of Covid-19.

Previous research has shown that cannabis might affect Covid-19, including a laboratory study published in 2022 that showed cannabinoids prevented infection of human cells by SARS-CoV-2. A separate study published in October found that cannabis users who contracted Covid-19 had better outcomes and reduced mortality compared with non-cannabis users.

Cannabis Might Help Patients With Long-Covid

The new study also found that cannabinoids could one day be used to treat patients with long Covid, a group of persistent health problems that can last for weeks, months or years following a bout with Covid-19.

“Post-SARS-CoV-2 infection, cannabinoids have shown promise in treating symptoms associated with post-acute long COVID-19, including depression, anxiety, post-traumatic stress injury, insomnia, pain, and decreased appetite,” the researchers wrote.

More

Study Shows Cannabis Has The Potential To Prevent And Treat Covid-19 (forbes.com)

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.

Graphene Quantum Dots for Chemodynamic Cancer Therapy

January 11, 2024

A metal-free nanozyme based on graphene quantum dots (GQDs) for extremely effective tumor chemodynamic treatment (CDT) has been developed by a research team headed by Prof. Hui Wang from the Hefei Institutes of Physical Science (HFIPS) of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and reported in Matter.

When it comes to resolving the toxicity issues related to metal-based nanozymes in tumor CDT, GQDs offer a viable and affordable solution. However, GQDs’ low catalytic activity has made it difficult for them to be used in clinical settings, especially in harsh catalytic environments.

The obtained GQDs, which are made from red blood cell membranes, are highly effective in treating tumors with few side effects. One of the advantages is that they are metal-free. In addition, they function as excellent peroxidase-like biocatalysts.

Hongji Liu, Professor, Hefei Institutes of Physical Science (HFIPS), Chinese Academy of Sciences

More

Graphene Quantum Dots for Chemodynamic Cancer Therapy (msn.com)

This weekend’s music diversion. Another long forgotten mixed-race composer. Approx. 10 minutes.

Violin Concerto in G Major, Op. 8, No. 2: I. Allegro (From "Chevalier"/Visualizer Video)

Violin Concerto in G Major, Op. 8, No. 2: I. Allegro (From "Chevalier"/Visualizer Video) (youtube.com)

Chevalier de Saint-Georges

Joseph Bologne, Chevalier de Saint-George(s) (25 December 1745 – 9 June 1799) was a French violinist, conductorcomposer and soldier. His historical significance lies in his distinctive background as a biracial free man of color.[a] Bologne was the first classical composer of African descent to attain widespread acclaim in European music. He composed an array of violin concertosstring quartetssinfonia concertantes, violin duets, sonatas, two symphonies and an assortment of stage works, notably opéra comique.[1] Moreover he demonstrated excellence as a fencer, an athlete and an accomplished dancer.

More

Chevalier de Saint-Georges - Wikipedia

This weekend’s chess update. Approx. 11 minutes.

A Draw Was Never An Option! || Polgar vs Topalov || Dos Hermanas (1996)

A Draw Was Never An Option! || Polgar vs Topalov || Dos Hermanas (1996) (youtube.com)

Finally, San Pedro Bay, California.

Why We Have Two Major Seaports in San Pedro Bay

Together the Port of Long Beach (POLB) and the Port of Los Angeles (POLA), the two cheek by jowl mega ports in San Pedro Bay, are the busiest container ports not only in the U.S. but also in North America. Handling almost 17 million twenty-foot equivalent unit (TEU) containers each year, they dwarf the volume of most other container ports on either coast. How did this happen historically? What is it about these ports that continue their success? The answers lie in geography, railroads, civic pride, economics, and climate.

More, including an aerial view of both ports.

5. Why We Have Two Major Seaports in San Pedro Bay - USC Sea Grant

Then they came for me
And there was no one left
To speak out for me

 German Lutheran pastor Martin Niemöller (1892–1984)

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