Baltic Dry Index. 1503 +146 Brent Crude 78.56
Spot Gold 2028 U S 2 Year Yield 4.39 +0.05
You can fool some of the people some of the time -- and that's enough to make a decent living.
Wall Street W. C. Fields.
Stock mania is back!!! Well in the USA stock casinos, at least.
Asian and European markets are lagging, suffering from a Chinese property bubble bust; Germany and Holland leading the EU into a growing recession; the UK teetering on the edge of recession. And affecting both Europe and Asia, growing Red Sea shipping disruption and rapidly rising costs.
That the latest US stock bubble is a repeat of the technology bubble, led by just a handful of stocks rising on Artificial Intelligence hype, to this old dinosaur commodities and stocks trader, is a serious red flag.
That there will be nearly 60 national elections this year, is another red flag to dinosaur Graeme.
That
the most important of these seems likely to be a contest between an 81 year old
US incumbent President Biden Joe Biden, just brutally humiliated by
Israel’s Prime Minister Netanyahu and 78 year old former President Trump, almost
universally held in contempt by global media, including US media, is another serious
red flag to dinosaur Graeme.
But
what do I know, about Artificial Intelligence hype? Well actually quite a lot
having operated on AI for too many of my 74 years.
S&P 500 rallies 1% to all-time high, surpassing
previous record set in 2022: Live updates
UPDATED FRI, JAN 19 2024 4:28 PM EST
The S&P 500 closed
at an all-time high on Friday as investors returned to buying equities in force
following a short-lived market stumble to start the new year.
The broad market index rose 1.23%
to settle at 4,839.81, surpassing both the prior record intraday and closing
highs from January 2022. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average,
which set its own record at the end of last year, added 395.19 points, or
1.05%, to end at 37,863.80. The Nasdaq Composite advanced
1.70% to 15,310.97. The smaller, more tech-focused Nasdaq-100 gained
1.95% to also hit a record high.
All three major averages are now
in positive territory for 2024, with the 30-stock Dow going green during
Friday’s rally.
Following a 19% loss in 2022, the S&P 500 roared back in 2023, posting a 24% gain as the economy skirted a recession that many had expected and inflation came down to levels that allowed the Federal Reserve to pause its interest rate hikes. The benchmark came close to reaching a record following a forceful fourth-quarter rally, but ultimately fell short. The market rally paused a bit to start 2024 as investors took some profits in the Big Tech leaders like Apple.
But they returned to buying those
tech leaders in recent days. Friday’s milestone confirms that the stock market
is officially in a bull market that began in October 2022, and not just a
bounce within a bear market. The S&P 500 is up more than 35% since that
low.
“In the mind of the investor, [companies] leading
in AI or having a product set that’s differentiated in the tech space are very,
very strongly leading the market. That’s been a wave that’s persisted
throughout the remainder of last year and into 2024,” said Matt Stucky, chief
portfolio manager at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management.
The tech sector gained 2.35% on Friday and more
than 4% during the trading week, making it the S&P 500′s best-performing
sector week to date.
More
Stock
market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)
This record-breaking market just keeps going higher
and higher. Here’s why
The stock market keeps scaling new heights as
investors focus on the good and ignore the bad, no matter how bad the bad parts
might look sometimes.
Prospects for a
slowing economy, geopolitical unrest and turmoil in Washington aren’t scaring
market participants largely because none of those threats have turned into much
in reality.
What instead has taken center stage is an
economy performing remarkably well, inflation pulling back and a run of positive
developments in Big Tech that has outweighed any what-ifs that
the market has had to endure.
“If investors are
looking for a reason to be negative, it’s hard to find,” said Mitchell
Goldberg, president of ClientFirst Strategy, a financial advisory firm. “The
24-hour news cycle is so intense. But the fact is, a lot of it is noise and a
lot of it has nothing to do with economics and personal finance. There’s so
much information overload now. But to break it down and put perspective on
things, what’s not to like about the stats that are coming up?”
As it has digested
the various headwinds and tail winds, the market is pushing toward a record
closing high. In fact, the S&P 500 breached its
intraday peak Friday, continuing the momentum built through the end
of 2023.
Large technology
players have led the charge. Juniper Networks, Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices are
the three biggest sector gainers this year on the S&P 500,
buoyed in part by enthusiasm over generative artificial intelligence
technology.
Solid economy provides a boost
At the same time,
economic data outside of manufacturing and housing has been mostly solid,
particularly where it concerns the seemingly unbreakable labor market. With
expectations running high that elevated interest rates pose a threat to
continued hiring growth, initial
jobless claims last week hit their lowest level since September
2022.
Along with commentary
from multiple Fed officials, the tight labor market has taken some
of the steam of out the market’s anticipation for rate cuts this year.
Where the market a
week ago was nearly certain the Fed would start cutting in March and keep going
with six more quarter percentage point moves this year, pricing shifted Friday.
Traders in the fed funds futures market now think there’s less than a 50% chance
of a March cut and now see a greater likelihood of five reductions this year,
according to CME Group data.
But markets stayed
positive even with the dimmed outlook for policy easing.
“As far as the Fed
raising rates, this has been borne out that as long as the rate hikes don’t
cause something to break” the market is fine, Goldberg said. “I don’t really
see anything breaking. There’s no subprime debt crisis, I don’t see a mortgage
crisis. ... There have been a lot of big, bold predictions, and one by one they
don’t happen, or they just push them out to the next year.”
---- “The big seven names [in tech] have become
like a chimera. They appeal to two very different economic backdrops,” said
Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial. “One is we’re out of
fear that the economy is slowing dramatically. The other is they’re specific
catalysts for AI because the market has been focused on the business
development with mega-tech and business innovation for generative AI. And now
what you’re seeing and what companies are reporting is the monetization of
that.”
Krosby specifically cited standout
earnings from Taiwan
Semiconductor as
a bellwether for the sector and the promise that disruptive technology holds.
“That is something that the market has been waiting for,” she said.
More
This
record-breaking market just keeps going higher and higher. Here's why
(cnbc.com)
In
other news, nothing good.
Biden cancels nearly $5 bln more in student debt relief
By Andrea Shalal January 19, 2024 10:39
PM GMTUGMT
Jan 19 (Reuters) - U.S. President Joe Biden on Friday announced student
debt cancellation of nearly $5 billion for an additional 74,000 borrowers,
including more than half who earned forgiveness after 10 years of public
service as teachers, nurses and firefighters.
The White House announcement brings the total loan forgiveness approved
by the Biden-Harris administration to $136.6 billion for more than 3.7 million
Americans.
More
Biden
cancels nearly $5 bln more in student debt relief | Reuters
US Democrats push Biden administration over civilian toll in
Israel's Gaza campaign
By Patricia Zengerle January 19, 2024 11:52
PM GMT
WASHINGTON, Jan 19 (Reuters)
- Dozens of President Joe Biden's fellow Democrats signed a letter on Friday
urging his administration to reaffirm that the U.S. strongly opposes "the
forced and permanent displacement" of Palestinians from Gaza.
The
letter to Secretary of State
Antony Blinken, led by U.S. Representatives Ayanna Pressley and Jamie Raskin,
was signed by 60 Democratic House of Representatives members, reflecting
concern, especially on the left, over the steep toll on Palestinian civilians
of Israel's campaign against Hamas.
More
US
Democrats push Biden administration over civilian toll in Israel's Gaza
campaign | Reuters
Switzerland says Israeli president subject of criminal
complaints at Davos
By Gabrielle Tétrault-Farber January 19, 2024 3:07 PM GMT
GENEVA, Jan 19 (Reuters) - Swiss prosecutors on Friday confirmed that
Israeli President Isaac Herzog had been the subject of criminal complaints
during his visit to the World Economic Forum in Davos, as Israel finds itself
accused of committing war crimes in Gaza.
"The criminal complaints will be examined according to the usual
procedure," the Office of the Swiss Attorney General said, adding that it
would contact the Swiss foreign ministry to examine the question of immunity of
the individual concerned.
More
Switzerland
says Israeli president subject of criminal complaints at Davos | Reuters
Global
Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation/recession now needs an entire
section of its own.
Inflation at
3% isn't the problem — it's the expectation that interest rates will soon fall,
asset manager says
January
19, 2024
Markets are far too
optimistic about the prospects of interest rate cuts — because inflation is
still above the Federal Reserve's target, an asset manager told MarketWatch.
Inflation rose at
the higher-than-expected pace of 3.4% in December compared with the same month
in 2022, damping market expectations of imminent interest rate cuts.
However,
3% inflation "is not necessarily problematic," James Solloway, chief
market strategist at Pennsylvania-based asset manager SEI, told MarketWatch on
Thursday.
However, "what is
problematic is market expectations, which seem to be pointing toward a return
to the environment we had prior to Covid," Solloway said.
Lower interest rates boost
demand for loans, spurring investment and spending, while higher rates have the
opposite effect.
The Fed slashed benchmark interest rates to boost the US economy amid the Great Recession until
they hit the range of 0% to 0.25% at the end of 2008. They remained low for the
following decade, even with some gradual increases from 2015.
Interest
rates were once again slashed to near-zero in March 2020 when the economy was
hit by the pandemic. The Fed started hiking rates again two years later to cool
surging inflation.
In December, the central bank
signaled three interest rate cuts in
2024, exciting market participants as markets ended the year near
record highs.
While inflation has fallen
from a four-decade high in
June 2022, it remains above the Fed's target 2% level. The economy is also
performing strongly, with more jobs added in
December than forecast.
Labor markets also remain
tight across other major economies, which means wages are unlikely to fall to
levels that will prompt interest cuts, Solloway wrote in a January 3 report.
This means "inflation is
far from dead," and signaling rates are likely to stay higher, for longer.
This
section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
US House Committee says China delayed releasing COVID-19
information for weeks and lied about sharing it immediately
Fri,
January 19, 2024 at 4:16 AM GMT
China likely obtained COVID-19's
first known gene sequence weeks before publicly releasing it, contrary to
Beijing's claim that it immediately shared the information, the US House Energy & Commerce
Committee said on Wednesday.
The delay is significant because
it may have wasted time for the world to develop COVID-19 vaccines and
treatments, causing needless deaths, the committee said.
The committee said a Chinese
virologist, Lili Ren, submitted the pathogen's gene sequence to the US database
GenBank on December 28, 2019, the committee said.
The database belongs to the
National Institutes of Health, of which Ren is a subgrantee under the nonprofit
EcoHealth Alliance.
Ren's submission, however, was
missing some technical information, and the database staff asked her three days
later to submit the additional details. If she didn't offer these details, the
sequence would be deleted, the staff said, per the committee.
The US lawmakers added that Ren
did not upload the rest of the necessary information to the database.
On January 10, 2020, about two
weeks later, China released a gene sequence of COVID-19 that was "nearly
identical" to Ren's submission, the committee said, citing the Department
of Health and Human Services.
The committee said this
contradicted China's repeated claims that it released the gene sequence as soon
as it obtained the information.
China's embassy in the US in
2021 released a statement attacking "US vicious slanders," responding to
dozens of allegations from US media and officials about Beijing's handling of
the virus.
"By upholding a scientific
attitude and following the laws of epidemiology, the Chinese government
promptly shared the virus genetic sequence and epidemic information with the
World Health Organization and the international community," the statement
said.
The House committee said this
example shows that China has been forthcoming with sharing vital medical
information for fighting COVID-19.
"The significant discovery
further underscores why we cannot trust any of the so-called facts or data
provided by the CCP and calls into serious question the legitimacy of any
scientific theories based on such information," the investigating lawmakers
wrote.
More
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Tesla drivers
can't charge their cars because stations have frozen over
January 18, 2024
A deep freeze in Chicago has
left Tesla owners stranded as charging stations for the smart car are iced
over.
After
temperatures of -18°C moved into the windy city, photos showed many of Elon
Musk’s vehicles stranded with dead batteries outside of charging stations.
Tesla
recommends maintaining a charge level above 20% when not plugged in to minimize
the impact of cold temperatures on the battery.
But
many of the vehicles waited so long in line for a functional charger that their
batteries died in the frigid conditions.
Tesla
has come under criticism in the past for failure to operate in cold conditions,
with many of the vehicle doors freezing shut.
More
Tesla drivers can't charge their cars because stations
have frozen over (msn.com)
Yes, frigid
weather may reduce your EV battery range. Here's how to prepare
Fri, 19 January 2024 at 9:00 am GMT
Recent news reports out of the U.S. have recounted the
problems Tesla owners have faced during the extreme cold weather across
North America, including loss of battery power, extended
recharging times and long lines at charging stations.
Yes, freezing
temperatures can have a significant impact on an electric vehicle's
battery, but experts say there are ways to mitigate the effects of extreme
cold.
Why does the cold
weather impact EV battery power?
The technical explanation for the
loss of power has to do with the lithium ions that produce electricity in an EV
battery. When it gets cold, they flow more slowly through the liquid
electrolyte and release less energy.
Seattle-based Recurrent, a
company that tests and analyzes electric vehicles, explains on its website that
EV engines are more efficient than internal combustion engines
(ICE) because the former don't generate "waste heat."
However, the waste heat in
ICE cars can be used to warm the vehicle's interior in cold
temperatures.
EVs need to produce that
energy themselves, meaning "the heaters that keep the car warm
generally draw energy from the high-voltage battery, reducing how much capacity
is left for driving," the Recurrent website said.
How
much does cold weather affect an EV's battery power?
Some EVs can lose up to 30
per cent of their range in freezing temperatures, according to Recurrent.
In its latest report, based on data from 18,000 vehicles, Recurrent found
that 18 popular EV models maintained an average of 70.3 per cent of their
range in freezing conditions. But that performance
varied depending on the model. For example, the report found that the
range of the Audi E-tron fleet dropped about 20 per cent, compared with
the Chevy Bolt (32 per cent) and Tesla Model S (55 per cent).
Consumer Reports conducted its own tests and found the cold weather can have a significant
impact even before the temperature drops to freezing. Their tests found
that the range starts to drop at 4 C. Cold weather, it found, can
drain about 25 per cent of range when driving at higher speeds of just
over 110 km/h.
"There's validity to the
concern that you are going to lose some range in the really cold weather,"
said Cara Clairman, president and CEO of Plug'n Drive, a Canadian
non-profit organization that seeks to answer consumer questions about electric
vehicles.
She said range loss is less of a
concern in more recent models compared to older models.
But Clairman pointed out
that while vehicles may lose some range, most drivers on a typical day aren't
driving anywhere near the top of their vehicle's range, which for most is
between 400 and 500 kilometres on a full charge.
"Let's say you might lose 20
per cent. That's only an issue for you if that particular day you're driving
350 kilometres," she said. "So just keep in mind it's probably not an
issue for most people."
How much longer do cars
have to be charged in cold weather?
The vehicle controls the charging
rate, not the charger, meaning when temperatures are low, the EV's
software reduces its charging power to help avoid stressing the battery,
according to the website of Electrify America, a U.S.-based organization promoting
zero-emission vehicle adoption.
EVs can take longer to charge when it's cold partly because most
are designed to boost their battery temperatures when the thermometer
drops, Alex Knizek, manager of automotive testing and insights at
Consumer Reports, told CBS MoneyWatch.
"This power to do so comes from the battery itself, reducing
range," Knizek said. "This also has an impact on charging
speeds. If the battery is too cold, it will charge slower and may need to heat
itself up before the charging speed can increase."
This can result in a doubling of charging time, or even a tripling in
some older EVs.
More
Yes, frigid weather may reduce your EV battery range.
Here's how to prepare (yahoo.com)
This weekend’s music
diversion. Vivaldi again, with unusual cello bow action. Approx. 8 minutes.
VIVALDI/arr.
Sorrell: La Folia ("Madness") – The Night the Cello Bow Exploded –
Apollo's Fire
This weekend’s chess
update. Approx. 13 minutes.
Slayer
of World Champions || Ding Liren vs Praggnanandhaa || Tata Steel (2024)
Slayer of World Champions || Ding Liren vs
Praggnanandhaa || Tata Steel (2024) - YouTube
No Maths update this
weekend. This weekend who invented the jet engine.? Approx. 20 minutes but
worth it.
Who
Invented the Jet Engine?
Who
Invented the Jet Engine? (youtube.com)
Finally, the good old
days. Approx. 1 minute.
Wendy's
Commercial - Soviet Fashion Show
Wendy's Commercial - Soviet Fashion Show (youtube.com)
I'm
living in a very modest place. I have a room over-looking beautiful Claridge's
Hotel. I thought it was better than paying Claridge's prices and overlooking
the dump I'm living in.
Jack Benny. On visiting London.
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