Baltic
Dry Index. 1324 -36
Brent Crude 77.81
Spot Gold 2018 US 2 Year Yield 4.22 +0.08
17th January 1746 The Battle of Falkirk,
Scotland. The last victory for Bonnie Prince Charlie.
Battle of Falkirk Muir | ScottishHistory.org
Not much need for me to comment today. The stock casinos mania seems to have run into the reality of the real world global economy.
Don’t look now, but that US inverted yield
curve seems to be flattening ahead of a looming US recession.
Asia stocks slide as
China weakness, rate cut jitters weigh
By Ankur Banerjee January 17, 2024 3:12
AM GMT
SINGAPORE, Jan 17 (Reuters)
- Asian equities slumped on Wednesday, led by Chinese stocks after a slew of
data pointed to a patchy recovery in the world's second-biggest economy, while
the dollar was near a one-month high as traders dialled back bets of early
interest rate cuts.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) slid 1.34%, touching a
fresh one-month low and on course for its weakest weekly performance since
August. The index is down 3% for the week.
China stocks fell sharply
after data showed China's economy
grew 5.2% in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, missing analysts'
expectations slightly but still ensuring Beijing met its annual growth target
of around 5%.
December activity indicators released along with the GDP data
showed retail sales grew at the slowest pace since September, while investment
growth remained tepid, though industrial output showed signs of improvement.
China's blue-chip stock
index (.CSI300) was down more than 1% in
early morning trade, hovering near the lowest level since early 2019. Hong
Kong's Hang Seng index (.HSI) slumped 2.5%.
"The series of China’s economic data releases today seem to
reflect more of the same – an uneven growth environment, which does not offer
much conviction of a sustained turnaround just yet," said Jun Rong Yeap, a
market strategist at IG in Singapore.
---- Meanwhile, Japan's
Nikkei (.N225) shrugged off the broader
malaise and rose to a new 34-year peak. It was last up 0.5% having surged over
1% in early trading.
Investor enthusiasm was also dampened by the hawkish rhetoric
from central bank officials, pushing back against expectations of early rate
cuts.
U.S. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said on Tuesday
that while inflation was approaching the central bank's 2% goal, the Fed should not rush to lower
interest rates until lower inflation can clearly be sustained.
Waller's comments echoed sentiments of European central bankers.
"Waller's comments were reflected in rate markets, with
markets seemingly becoming a bit more sceptical that the Fed can deliver the
aggressive cuts of over 160 basis points," said Kieran Williams, head of
Asia FX at InTouch Capital Markets.
Markets are pricing in a 65% chance of a rate cut by the Fed in
March, according to the CME FedWatch tool, compared with the 81% likelihood at
the start of the week. They are also pricing in 158 bps of cuts this year.
Geopolitical worries have also sapped sentiment as investors
keep an eye on developments in the Red Sea, Gaza and Ukraine.
More
Asia
stocks slide as China weakness, rate cut jitters weigh | Reuters
Dow closes
more than 200 points lower Tuesday after 10-year Treasury yield tops 4%: Live
updates
UPDATED TUE, JAN 16 2024 4:14 PM EST
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell Tuesday as
bond yields ticked higher and Wall Street pored through the latest batch of
fourth-quarter earnings.
The Dow declined
231.86 points, or 0.62%, to close at 37,361.12. The S&P 500 slipped
0.37% to end at 4,765.98, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped
0.19% to 14,944.35.
Markets were closed on Monday for
Martin Luther King Jr. Day.
Boeing shares
tumbled about 7.9% after Wells Fargo downgraded the
company to equal weight from overweight, amid ongoing troubles with its 737 Max
9 model. Meanwhile, AMD shares
jumped 8.3% following upbeat analyst commentary on semiconductor demand. The
chipmaker, which is trying to catch Nvidia in the artificial intelligence race,
rose to a new 52-week high, and is scheduled to report its quarterly results on
Jan. 30.
The benchmark 10-year Treasury
note yield climbed
more than 11 basis points to 4.064% after Federal Reserve Governor Christopher
Waller indicated in
a speech that the central bank may ease monetary policy slower than Wall Street
had anticipated.
Several major banks released
their quarterly earnings Tuesday morning. Goldman Sachs reported better-than-expected profit
and revenue, while Morgan Stanley posted a
revenue beat in the fourth quarter. Shares of Goldman Sachs inched up 0.7%,
while Morgan Stanley declined more than 4%.
“So far, it seems like the
consumer is holding up fairly well. If you look across, the banks that have
reported, in general, spending’s okay. Credit card balances are up, but [we’re]
also getting more account growth,” said Tom Hainlin, senior investment strategist
at U.S. Bank Asset Management.
Roughly 30 S&P 500 companies
have reported calendar fourth-quarter results thus far. Of those, 78% have
beaten earnings expectations, according to FactSet.
Investors are also looking ahead
to December retail sales data out Wednesday, which could fuel recessionary
fears and concerns about economic growth if U.S. consumer spending sees a
cooldown.
Stock
market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)
FTSE
100 drops to month low as rate cut hopes ease
January 16, 2024
The FTSE 100 closed at its
lowest level for a month as hopes of early interest rate cuts this year
continued to dwindle.
It came despite fresh data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS)
showing UK wage growth slowed to the lowest rate for 10 months.
UK average regular earnings, excluding bonuses, increased
by 6.6% in the three months to November, down from a revised 7.2% in the
previous three months.
The data would typically add
more fuel to predictions rate cuts could be on their way but failed to offset
wider concerns about borrowing costs driven by more tentative central bankers.
The prospect that rate cuts may well come much later in
the year has seen yields rebound from their recent lows, while sending the FTSE
100 to one-month lows
Reappraisals from economists
of the interest rate outlook for both the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank drove global
sentiment slightly lower.
The FTSE 100 moved 0.48%, or 36.57 points lower, to
finish at 7,558.34.
The
German Dax index was down 0.3% at the close and the Cac 40 closed down 0.18%.
Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets UK,
said: “The weakness we saw in European markets on Monday has carried over as
the continued pushback on rate cut expectations from central banks has served
to boost the US dollar as well as undermine confidence in risky assets, as
concerns over the economic outlook grow.
More
FTSE
100 drops to month low as rate cut hopes ease (msn.com)
Stock futures are
little changed on Wednesday morning: Live updates
UPDATED WED, JAN 17 2024 12:24 AM EST
Stock futures were lower in overnight trading,
extending a losing session to kick off the holiday-shortened trading week.
Futures tied to the Dow Jones
Industrial Average dropped
82 points, or 0.05%. S&P 500
futures and Nasdaq-100 futures slipped
0.26% and 0.35% respectively.
Interactive
Brokers lost
nearly 3% in extended trading after posting fourth quarter adjusted earnings
that fell short of expectations.
Stocks finished lower during
Tuesday’s session as fourth-quarter earnings season gained steam and the yield
on the 10-year Treasury note marched back above 4% after commentary from
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller warned easing monetary policy may
come slower than anticipated. The Dow fell
231.86 points, or 0.62%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite slipped
0.37% and 0.19%, respectively.
So far, traders are pricing in a
roughly 65% chance that the Federal Reserve begins cutting rates in March as
hopes mount for a pivot, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool.
Fourth-quarter earnings gain
steam this week and could serve as the next major test for the market that
could dictate the setup for 2024. Investors have already pored over results
from major banks, including Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America.
“This reporting period may lack
the splashy ‘earnings recession over’ headlines we got last quarter, but it
takes on added importance because it sets the tone for 2024,” said Jeffrey
Buchbinder, chief equity strategist at LPL Financial. “After 2023 was a year in
which improving valuations delivered strong gains, this year, earnings will
likely have to do the heavy lifting.”
Wall Street awaits December
retail sales due out Wednesday. The findings could offer further insight into
the health of the consumer or contribute to growth concerns should spending
ease. Economists polled by Dow Jones are expecting retail sales to rise 0.4% in
December, up slightly from 0.3% in November.
More
Stock market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)
In other news, nothing good from the US and UK widening the Gaza Ghetto war.
China posts some dodgy statistics.
Air freight
rates could spike as Red Sea attacks disrupt shipments via sea
The Houthi attacks in the Red Sea are not only
driving up sea freight — air freights are going to get higher too, as global
trade flows get increasingly disrupted.
In the past weeks, ocean
freight rates have risen as much as $10,000 per 40-foot container,
as container ships seeking to avoid the attacks embarked on long detours around
the Cape of Good Hope in South Africa, diverting more than $200 billion of
cargo away from the critical trade artery.
The delays to maritime trade may prompt some retailers to switch to air
freight, as companies that normally ship their goods by sea want to ensure faster delivery, analysts said.
This means that air cargo is about
to play an expanded role in the supply chain ecosystem. Air freight can slash
delivery times to just a few days compared to weeks taken
by ocean carriers.
“Some shippers are already in
survival mode with one goal on their mind: ‘Make sure my freight moves by
whatever means possible,’” Matthew Burgess, vice president of global ocean
services at C.H. Robinson said.
In anticipation of an
influx of ocean to air conversions, the transportation logistics firm is
already blocking additional air capacity on core trade lanes to keep freight
moving, Burgess said.
German logistics
giant DHL told CNBC via email that the company has received several inquiries
but not as many conversions yet.
“We expect that to
change should the situation in the Red Sea continue,” said Andreas Von Pohl,
air freight head for DHL Global Forwarding Americas.
If that happens, it
will inevitably push rates even higher.
“We will see a surge
in the air freight rate,” said HSBC’s Global Head of Shipping and Ports
Research, Parash Jain. He said industry watchers are expecting to see the hikes
in the next two to three weeks, especially as the Chinese New Year holiday in
February approaches.
More
Red
Sea attacks: Air freight rates to rise as shippers enter survival mode
(cnbc.com)
China misses
fourth-quarter GDP estimates, resumes posting youth unemployment data
BEIJING — China
missed fourth-quarter GDP estimates on Wednesday, while it resumed reporting
the unemployment rate for young people.
GDP for the last
three months of 2023 rose by 5.2%, according to China’s National Bureau of
Statistics. That’s below the 5.3% forecast in a Reuters poll.
GDP growth for the
full year was also 5.2%.
“With investment in
the property sector falling, the economy is more dependent on the manufacturing
sector and service sector,” Zhiwei Zhang, president and chief economist at
Pinpoint Asset Management, said in a note.
“This transition will
take time to be accomplished. The key question in the market is when the
transition in the property sector will finish.”
Excluding people
still in school, the unemployment rate for young people aged 16 to 24 was
14.9%, while the rate in cities in December was 5.1%.
The bureau had
temporarily suspended the release of the younger age group’s unemployment rate
in summer, citing the need to reassess calculation methods. That unemployment
rate had previously climbed to records above 20%.
Retail sales grew by
7.4% in December from a year ago, missing expectations for 8% growth.
Industrial production
rose by 6.8% in December from a year earlier, beating forecasts for 6.6%
growth.
Fixed asset
investment for 2023 rose by 3%, a touch above the predicted 2.9% increase.
More
China
misses fourth-quarter GDP estimates, resumes posting youth unemployment data
(cnbc.com)
Finally, more on so you really, really, really want to drive an EV. Approx. 10 minutes.
Freezing weather leaves
DOZENS of DEAD EVs stranded | MGUY Australia
Freezing weather leaves DOZENS of DEAD EVs stranded | MGUY Australia (youtube.com)
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Brits braced for a gloomy 2024 as two thirds expect UK to enter a recession
by Brandon Russell | Jan 16, 2024
New nationally representative research from wealth manager Quilter, gathered by YouGov, reveals that almost two thirds (61%) of Britons are not confident that the UK will avoid a recession this year.
The research follows recent UK GDP data from the Office for National Statistics which revealed UK GDP fell by 0.1% in Q3 2023 and Q2’s previously positive figure was revised down to show no growth, leaving the economy on the brink of a recession and many people’s finances hanging in the balance.
Quilter’s research found that not only did almost two thirds (61%) of Brits say they were not confident the UK would avoid a recession in 2024, but only around a fifth of people (22%) said they were confident one would be avoided.
What’s more, Quilter’s research
found that 32% of Brits reported that their current finances and earnings would
not be sufficient to allow them to manage their daily expenses in the event of
a recession.
Sue Loveridge, financial
planner at Quilter,
says: “The UK economy has faced an incredibly challenging few years and
the strain is now taking a real toll on people’s finances. The UK barely
scraped by without a recession in 2023, and our latest research reveals the
majority of Brits expect 2024 to have an even worse fate.
“The cost-of-living crisis has had a significant impact on people right across the UK. Interest rates remain high, rent costs have soared, and inflation has only recently started falling to a more palatable level so it is little wonder that so many people feel they could not cope financially should a recession hit.
“Though the prospect of a recession is daunting,
it is not a done deal and for now there is still a chance that the UK avoids
one. Inflation is heading in the right direction and interest rates are widely
expected to start to fall this year. We are already seeing mortgage rates fall
which should ease the pressure on household finances, and we can expect this to
continue should the Bank of England opt to reduce rates later in the year. The
Chancellor’s 2% National Insurance cut has also now come into effect which will
see the average UK worker taking home an additional £447.86 a year, and with an
election looming Jeremy Hunt may look to curry favour via additional tax
giveaways during his spring budget.
More
Brits braced for a gloomy 2024 as two thirds expect UK
to enter a recession - IFA Magazine
Germany on track for two-year recession as economy
shrinks in 2023
‘Multiple
crises’ contributed to 0.3% fall in GDP, says national statistics office
Mon 15
Jan 2024 12.00 GMT
Germany is on track for its first two-year recession
since the early 2000s after its economy shrank in 2023 amid the impact of
higher energy costs and weaker industrial demand.
The German national statistics office said “multiple
crises” affecting the economy had contributed to a 0.3% fall in gross domestic product (GDP) in 2023, compared with the previous year, as
higher interest rates and elevated living costs took their toll.
“Despite recent price declines, prices remained high at
all stages in the economic process and put a damper on economic growth,” said
Dr Ruth Brand, the president of the statistics office, at a press conference in
Berlin on Monday.
“The German economy did not continue its recovery from
the sharp economic slump experienced in the pandemic year of 2020.”
Germany’s economy was 0.7% higher in 2023 than in 2019,
the year before the pandemic began. However, analysts said Europe’s largest
economy was on track for another year of stagnant growth in 2024 at best, with
a heightened risk of a second consecutive year of negative output.
Carsten Brzeski, the global head of macro research at the
Dutch bank ING, said: “There is no imminent rebound in sight and the economy
looks set to go through the first two-year recession since the early 2000s.
“We expect the current state of stagnation and shallow
recession to continue. In fact, the risk that 2024 will be another year of
recession is high.”
After adjustment for calendar effects, the decline in economic performance in 2023 amounted to
0.1%, the statistics office said. It added that in the final quarter of last
year the German economy shrank by 0.3%, compared with the third three months,
when output had stagnated.
Germany’s dominant industrial base, excluding
construction, fell by 2% over the course of the year, as higher energy costs
and dwindling demand at home and from abroad weighed on factory output.
Reflecting the impact of higher energy bills and
borrowing costs on consumers, household consumption fell 0.8% on the previous
year, while government spending fell 1.7%.
As well as having one of the worst performances among
advanced economies last year, Germany is expected to experience one of the
weakest performers in 2024, with EU forecasts published
in November predicting growth of 0.8%. Experts said the country’s economy was
in “permanent crisis mode” as supply chain frictions, persistent inflationary
pressures, weaker global demand for manufactured goods and higher interest
rates weighed on national output.
Andrew Kenningham, the chief Europe economist at the
consultancy Capital Economics, said: “The recent fall in inflation should provide some
relief for households, but residential and business investment are likely to
contract, construction is heading for a steep downturn and the government is
tightening fiscal policy sharply. We forecast zero GDP growth in 2024.”
More
Germany on track for two-year recession as economy shrinks in 2023 | Germany | The Guardian
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
As
Davos billionaires mingle with mere millionaires, The W.H.O. is busy talking up
“Disease X.” Sounds to me like someone,
somewhere is plotting another “accidental” lab leak.
World leaders to meet to discuss threat of
hypothetical ‘Disease X’ pandemic in Davos
January 16, 2024
World leaders meeting
in Davos for the World
Economic Forum (WEF) this week are
set to discuss concerns about the potential for a future pandemic that could
cause 20 times more fatalities than Covid-19.
It’s known by the placeholder
name of Disease X, with the term used to refer to planning for a
hypothetical future international epidemic caused by a pathogen as yet unknown to cause human
disease, according to the World Health Organisation (WHO).
In a session
entitled “Preparing for Disease X”, a panel led by the WHO chief Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus will talk about “novel efforts needed to prepare
healthcare systems
for the multiple challenges ahead” if we are to be ready for a much more deadly
pandemic, the WEF said.
The WHO ranks Disease X as a priority
disease in its awareness campaigning, alongside Covid-19, the Ebola virus, Zika
virus, Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever, Middle East Respiratory Syndrome
(Mers-CoV) and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (Sars).
Disease X was added to the list in
2018 as the WHO sought to open up discussions about tackling a global pandemic
in the future.
The WHO has prioritised research and
development in an emergency context for all these diseases, stating that the
blueprint “explicitly seeks to enable early cross-cutting R&D [research and
development] preparedness that is also relevant for an unknown Disease X”.
“Worldwide, the number of potential
pathogens is very large, while the resources for disease research and
development (R&D) is limited,” the WHO had previously said in a statement.
Along with Dr Tedros, the session
this Wednesday will feature Brazilian health minister Nisia Trindade Lima,
pharmaceutical giant AstraZeneca’s chair of the board Michel Demaré, Royal
Philips CEO Roy Jakobs, and Indian hospital chain Apollo’s executive vice-chairperson
Preetha Reddy.
To be clear, scientists don’t yet
know what kind of virus might lead to the next pandemic – or, in other words,
what Disease X will turn out to be.
Many people think it could be a
coronavirus – like SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes illness with Covid-19 – or
a new strain of influenza.
“This concept [of Disease X] was one
of the lessons we learned from this [Covid] pandemic,” said Dr Thomas Russo, an
infectious diseases expert at the University of Buffalo Jacobs School of
Medicine and Biomedical Sciences.
He said: “As mankind breaks down
these barriers [between humans and other species] through live animal markets
and deforestation, we need continued surveillance and studies and improved
biosecurity across the world.”
Disease X could also turn out to be a
brand new pathogen not yet known even among animals, he warned.
Building readiness to tackle the next
pandemic, and working out how to prevent the collapse of national healthcare
infrastructure, as was seen in many countries in 2020, has now become a
critical objective for the WHO.
More
World leaders to meet to discuss threat of hypothetical ‘Disease X’ pandemic in Davos (msn.com)
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Today, something different. A quiet
supersonic plane. Well maybe.
Nasa shows off 'quiet' new
X-59 supersonic jet
January
15, 2024
Nasa has revealed one of its latest projects - a one-of-a-kind supersonic jet.
The designers say it should be pretty quiet and hope that means it will be able to get around the US ban on supersonic flights over land.
Built in partnership with aircraft-maker Lockheed Martin, the jet is part of the US space agency's mission to find a way for people to use supersonic flights for more ordinary plane travel.
Supersonic flight
means planes travel much faster and journeys take less time.
It's hoped the X-59 could fly at 1.4 times the speed of sound - or 925 miles per hour, and experts hope the data it gathers will help develop future quiet supersonic aircraft.
The X-59 is over 30 metres long and a big part of that is its nose, which takes up a third of its whole length.
In order to make it fly even faster, designers have put the cockpit almost halfway down the plane and have also got rid of the forward-facing windows you normally see in planes (and cars).
Instead pilots will see what is ahead of them using a screen in the cockpit.
Supersonic flights aren't usually allowed over land - except for military jets - because of the disturbance that can be caused by loud, startling sonic booms when jets break the sound barrier.
The X-59 is part of Nasa's Quesst mission, which aims to make the booms quieter and convince authorities to allow supersonic flights over land.
Nasa's Bob Pearce said: "Testing showed us it was possible to design an aircraft that would produce a soft thump instead of a sonic boom. Is that thump quiet enough to allow supersonic flight over land?
"Our laboratory studies would say yes, but the real answer can only be found by engaging the people who would hear it during daily life."
The jet is set to take its first test flight later this year and following that, its first 'quiet' supersonic flight, Nasa said.
The agency added that once test flights had been completed, the X-59 would fly over several cities across the US to collect public feedback on the sound it produces.
Nasa
shows off 'quiet' new X-59 supersonic jet - BBC Newsround
The Battle of
Cowpens was an engagement during the American
Revolutionary War fought
on January 17, 1781 near the town of Cowpens,
South Carolina, between American
Patriot forces under Brigadier General Daniel Morgan and British forces, nearly half American
Loyalists, under Lieutenant Colonel Banastre Tarleton, as part of the campaign in the Carolinas (North and South). The battle was a turning point in the
American reconquest of South Carolina from the British.
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