Friday, 26 January 2024

An Interesting Day And Weekend.

Baltic Dry Index. 1499 -08           Brent Crude  82.22

Spot Gold 2022                  US 2 Year Yield 4.28 -0.06

"The leaders of the French Revolution excited the poor against the rich; this made the rich poor, but it never made the poor rich."

Fisher Ames.

In the stock casinos, more worry that the electric vehicle fad may have passed its peak.

The USA GDP came in slightly beating expectations.

In Europe, despite slowdowns in Europe’s leading economies including Germany, the ECB left its key interest rates unchanged and said that they might stay that way for some time.

Later today, the International Court of Justice will give its interim decision on South Africa’s genocide petition against Israel.

Probably a good day to be safely parked in 6 month US T. Bills.


Asia markets mostly lower as EV stocks extend sell-off after Tesla’s slowdown warning

UPDATED THU, JAN 25 2024 11:03 PM EST

Asia-Pacific markets mostly declined Friday as electric vehicle stocks in the region dropped for a second day, while investors also digested inflation data from Tokyo.

Hong Kong-listed shares of Xpeng and Li Auto fell about 2.5% each, while BYD fell 3.5%. The broader Hang Seng Index dropped 0.4%, while the Hang Seng Tech index, housing most EVs, shed 1.7%.

Tesla shares fell 12% in U.S. trading on Thursday after the EV giant missed earnings expectations and warned of a slowdown in 2024, which also triggered a sell-off in Asian EV companies.

China’s CSI 300 dropped 0.3%, retreating from a 2% bounce in the previous session after property stocks got a boost from Beijing’s plans to boost liquidity in the beleaguered sector.

They extended gains on Friday, with the CSI 300 real estate sector hitting a near four-week high after rising 2.7% in morning trading.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 slipped 1% after the January inflation reading from Tokyo came in softer compared to December. Tokyo’s data is widely considered to be a leading indicator for nationwide inflation. The broad based Topix fell 0.9%

Tokyo’s headline and core inflation rate for January both came in at 1.6%, compared with 2.4% and 2.1%, respectively, in December.

South Korea’s Kospi rose 0.8%, while the small-cap Kosdaq rose 1.5%.

Overnight in the U.S., all three major indexes gained, with the S&P500 index advancing 0.53% to reach a record high of 4,894.16, notching a six-day winning streak.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.64%, while, the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.18%, weighed down by a post-earnings tumble in Tesla shares.

Asia markets live today: Tokyo inflation, Singapore manufacturing, EVs fall (cnbc.com)

Nasdaq 100 futures slide after Intel’s guidance disappoints: Live updates

UPDATED FRI, JAN 26 2024 12:31 AM EST

Nasdaq 100 futures slid on Friday morning after Intel issued an outlook that fell short of Wall Street’s expectations.

Futures linked to the tech-heavy index shed 0.71%. S&P 500 futures dropped 0.36%, while Dow Jones Industrial Average futures slipped 121 points, or 0.32%.

In after-hours trading, Intel’s stock price sunk 10% after the chip manufacturer posted disappointing fiscal first-quarter guidance for the top and bottom lines. Semiconductor stock KLA Corp slid more than 5% after the company posted light revenue and earning per share guidance for its fiscal third quarter.

During the regular session, the S&P 500 leapt to a fresh all-time high. The broad market index and the Nasdaq Composite posted gains for the sixth straight day and overcame significant drag from Tesla shares, which slumped more than 12%. The S&P 500 advanced 0.5%, and the Nasdaq ticked up by 0.2%, while the Dow added 0.6%.

The major averages are also tracking for a winning week. The S&P 500 is up 1.1%, while the Dow has added 0.5%. The Nasdaq is the outperformer of the three, pacing for a 1.3% jump.

Stocks’ steady gains were buoyed by encouraging economic data released on Thursday. Gross domestic product data revealed higher-than-expected economic growth in the fourth quarter, piling onto investors’ hopes that the economy has avoided a deep recession.

Additional inflation data is on deck, with December’s personal consumption expenditures price index due Friday morning. The PCE is a preferred inflation gauge for the Federal Reserve, and the outcome could inform the central bank’s upcoming policy decision. Economists polled by Dow Jones expect that core PCE prices gained 3% in December on a year-over-year basis.

Stock market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)

The U.S. economy grew at a 3.3% pace in the fourth quarter, much better than expected

PUBLISHED THU, JAN 25 2024 8:30 AM EST

The economy grew at a much more rapid pace than expected in the final three months of 2023, as the U.S. easily skirted a recession that many forecasters had thought was inevitable, the Commerce Department reported Thursday.

Gross domestic product, a measure of all the goods and services produced, increased at a 3.3% annualized rate in the fourth quarter of 2023, according to data adjusted seasonally and for inflation.

That compared to the Wall Street consensus estimate for a gain of 2% in the final three months of the year. The third quarter grew at a 4.9% pace.

The U.S. economy for all of 2023 accelerated at a 2.5% annualized pace, well ahead of the Wall Street outlook at the beginning of the year for few if any gains.

As had been the case through the year, a strong pace of consumer spending helped drive the expansion. Personal consumption expenditures increased 2.8% for the quarter, down just slightly from the previous period.

State and local government spending also contributed, up 3.7%, as did a 2.5% increase in federal government expenditures. Gross private domestic investment rose 2.1%, another significant factor for the robust quarter.

On the inflation front, the price index for personal consumption expenditures rose 2.7% on an annual basis, down from 5.9% a year ago, while the core figure excluding food and energy posted a 3.2% increase annually, compared to 5.1%.

However, the inflation rates both were much lower in a quarterly basis. Core prices, which the Federal Reserve prefers as a longer-term inflation measure, rose 2% for the period, while the headline rate was 1.7%.

Markets showed only modest reaction to the report. Stock futures gained slightly while Treasury yields moved lower.

More

GDP Q4 2023: The U.S. economy grew at a 3.3% pace in the fourth quarter (cnbc.com)

Next up, commodities. Commodity price inflation looks set to stay.

 

Commodity markets are in a ‘super squeeze’ — and higher prices could be here to stay

Global commodity markets are in a “super squeeze” amid supply disruptions and lack of investment — and it’s only going to get worse as geopolitical and climate risks exacerbate the situation, HSBC said.

“For some time now we have described global commodity markets as being in a ‘super-squeeze,’” its chief economist Paul Bloxham told CNBC.

A commodity “super squeeze” is denoted by higher prices driven by supply constraints more than a robust growth in demand, he explained.

“If it’s a supply constraint that’s driving high commodity prices, it’s a very different story for global growth,” said via Zoom. Higher prices as a result of a super squeeze are “not as positive.”

“We see the deeper ‘super-squeeze’ factors on the supply-side as still set to play a key role in keeping commodity prices elevated,” he said, outlining factors like political uncertainties, climate change and the lack of investments into the green energy transition.

Geopolitical risks include the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza and the Ukraine war, which have hampered global trade, as seen in shipping disruptions from the recent Houthi attacks in the Red Sea.

Another reason is climate change, which disrupts supply chains as well as commodities supply, especially in the agricultural space.

“The super squeeze could be deeper, or more prolonged if geopolitical, climate change or energy transition related supply disruptions are larger than expected,” he added.

Lack of investments

The world’s pursuit of a net-zero carbon future is fueling demand for energy transition metals such as copper and nickel, Bloxham pointed out.

However, there are insufficient investments allocated to procuring these critical minerals, leading to a sharper supply squeeze on energy transition metals — in particular copper, aluminum and nickel, he said.

As energy transition ramps up, markets could be looking at a shortage of a slew of metals like graphite, cobalt, copper, nickel and lithium in the next decade, the Energy Transitions Commission said in a report in July.

More

Commodity markets are in a 'super squeeze'— higher prices may continue (cnbc.com)

In European news, as expected, the ECB did nothing, while French farmers continue raising a stink over taxes, low prices and mostly Spanish imports.


European Central Bank holds rates steady, gives no hint at cuts ahead

PUBLISHED THU, JAN 25 2024 8:18 AM EST

The European Central Bank on Thursday held interest rates unchanged, and reiterated it would keep them high for a “sufficiently long duration” to bring inflation to target.

The central bank is holding steady for the third straight meeting, after hiking its deposit rate to 4% in September.

It said that recent data had “broadly confirmed” its previous medium-term inflation outlook and that, despite energy effects, a declining trend in underlying inflation had continued.

“The Governing Council will continue to follow a data-dependent approach to determining the appropriate level and duration of restriction,” the ECB said in a statement.

Its “future decisions will ensure that its policy rates will be set at sufficiently restrictive levels for as long as necessary,” it added, echoing previous language.

The central bank is facing a sluggish euro area economy and fragile financial stability, but it is also focused on bringing inflation down to 2% from 2.9% currently. The ECB is highly concerned with cutting rates too soon and undoing some of the effects of the existing tightening.

Some ECB officials have spent the month pushing back against market expectations for rate cuts in the spring, stressing the need to wait for first-quarter wage data. On Thursday morning, markets were factoring in a 62% probability of an April cut, according to LSEG data.

More

European Central Bank holds rates steady, gives no hint at cuts ahead (cnbc.com)

French farmers block roads, dump produce as protest edges closer to Paris

By Nacho DoceSudip Kar-Gupta and Charlotte Van Campenhout

AGEN, France, Jan 25 (Reuters) - Farmers blocked highways across France and emptied the contents of several trucks carrying foreign-grown vegetables on Thursday as they pressed the government to protect them from cheap imports, rising costs and red tape.

Farmers said the protests, now in their second week after breaking out in the southwest, would continue as long as their demands are not met, posing the first big challenge for new Prime Minister Gabriel Attal.

As Attal convened senior ministers, farmers used bales of hay and tractors to block major arteries across the country, the European Union's biggest agricultural producer.

Crates of tomatoes, cabbages and cauliflowers that one group of farmers said had been imported from neighbouring countries were strewn across the A7 highway that links Marseille and Lyon, France's second and third biggest cities.

Some farming unions have threatened to blockade Paris. On Thursday, dozens of tractors led a go-slow during rush-hour near Versailles on the southwestern edge of the capital.

The powerful FNSEA farming union late on Wednesday handed the government a list of 100 demands.

Yohann Barbe, FNSEA spokesman, told RMC radio the demands revolved around "helping farmers regain their dignity, their ability to earn a living income, and above all putting an end to the overload of regulations".

Farmers cite a government tax on tractor fuel, cheap imports, water storage issues, price pressures from retailers and red tape and environmental rules among their grievances.

Farmer discontent over price levels is particularly acute in the dairy sector, where producers say the government's anti-inflation push has undermined legislation designed to safeguard farmgate prices.

French retailers are locked in annual price negotiations with suppliers, which the government wants concluded by the end of the month. Farmers say they will be on the sharp end of efforts to haul prices lower.

Fearing a spillover from farmer unrest in Germany, Poland and Romania, the French government has already postponed a draft farming law meant to help more people become farmers, saying it will beef up the measures and ease some regulations.

Ahead of European Parliament elections in June, President Emmanuel Macron is wary that farmers are a growing constituency for the far right.

Far right leader Marine Le Pen accused the government of complacency and backing European regulations that hurt farmers, such as rules on mandatory fallow land.

"Emmanuel Macron addresses farmers with a hand on the shoulder and then knifes them in the back in Brussels," Le Pen told reporters.

Farmers in the southwest who on Wednesday sprayed liquid manure over a local prefecture building in Agen, on Thursday directed their animal waste at a nearby Leclerc superstore, France's biggest supermarket chain, as police looked on.

French farmers block roads, dump produce as protest edges closer to Paris | Reuters

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

China is ramping up stimulus to boost market confidence — but is it enough?

PUBLISHED THU, JAN 25 2024 12:44 AM EST

BEIJING — Expectations for more support from China to boost its economy and stock markets are rising— especially after the central bank’s easing announcements on Wednesday.

Starting Feb. 5, the People’s Bank of China will allow banks to hold smaller cash reserves, central bank governor Pan Gongsheng said at a press conference, his first in the role.

Cutting the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 50 basis points is set to release 1 trillion yuan ($139.8 billion) in long-term capital, the central bank said.

“The latest [PBOC] announcements may be interpreted as the beginning of a policy pivot from previous reactive and piecemeal measures by investors, and they will continue to look for further signs and acts of policy support,” Tao Wang, head of Asia economics and chief China economist at UBS Investment Bank, said in a note Thursday.

Beijing has been reluctant to embark on massive stimulus, which would also widen the yield gap between China and the U.S. given the Federal Reserve’s tighter stance on monetary policy. The PBOC kept a benchmark lending rate unchanged again on Monday, holding pat on loan prime rates.

The magnitude of the central bank’s announcement Wednesday on the RRR cut exceeded Nomura’s forecast for a 25 basis point reduction, said the firm’s chief China economist, Ting Lu.

“We think this larger-than-expected RRR cut is a further sign that the PBoC and top policymakers have become increasingly concerned about the ongoing economic dip, which we have been flagging since mid-October last year, and the latest equity market performance,” he said in a note Thursday.

“More interestingly, the policy decision was revealed in a less-usual fashion, as the PBoC Governor made the announcement personally during a Q&A session at the press conference,” Lu said.

Pan on Wednesday told reporters the central bank and the National Financial Regulatory Administration would soon publish measures to encourage banks to lend to qualified developers. The document was released later that day.

“It is a significant step from the regulators to enhance credit support for developers,” UBS’ Wang said. “For developer financing to fundamentally and sustainably improve, property sales need to stop falling and start to recover, which could require more policy efforts to stabilize the property market.”

Real estate troubles are just one of several factors that have weighed on Chinese investor sentiment. The massive property industry has dragged down growth, and along with a slump in exports and lackluster consumption, kept the economy from rebounding from the pandemic as quickly as expected.

The mainland Chinese and Hong Kong stocks have steadily dropped to multi-year lows.

More

China is ramping up stimulus to boost market confidence. Is it enough? (cnbc.com)

China property stocks jump as Beijing takes steps to boost liquidity in the beleaguered sector

PUBLISHED THU, JAN 25 2024 2:01 AM EST

China’s property stocks jumped after the country’s central bank announced measures that would help boost the liquidity available to property developers.

The move will ease a lingering cash crunch for Chinese developers that have been at the receiving end of Beijing’s crackdown aimed at addressing the sector’s bloated debt levels.

The CSI property index jumped 5.2%, while the mainland’s broader CSI 300 added 1.8%.

Shares of Hong Kong-listed Country Garden jumped 2.94%, Logan Group gained 5.17% and Longfor Group added 4.61%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Mainland Properties index rose as much as 3.9%.

The People’s Bank of China and the Ministry of Finance said in a joint statement late Wednesday that these new measures will be valid until the end of 2024.

Banks can now issue loans to commercial real estate firms “with good comprehensive benefits that have passed the completion inspection and acceptance, obtained the real estate ownership certificate, and been put into operation, with the operating property as collateral.”

China’s property crisis could take years to resolve, with Oxford Economics estimating at least four to six years for real estate developers in the country to complete unfinished residential properties.

More

China property stocks jump as Beijing takes steps to boost liquidity in the beleaguered sector (cnbc.com)

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

“People who are not vaccinated may also have a higher risk of facing lingering symptoms.”

What scientific evidence supports this posit? None, I suspect.

Scientists Find Indicators in Blood Linked to Long Covid, Hinting at Future Treatments

One part of the immune system appeared to be overly active in long Covid patients in a small study, a finding researchers hope could help diagnose or treat the condition

January 23, 2024

Researchers have found signatures in the blood of people suffering from long Covid, which might point the way to treatments for the condition. In a small study, participants with long Covid symptoms showed different levels of certain proteins compared to people who had recovered from Covid-19 or those who had not been infected.

These changes were tied to an increased activation of the complement system, a part of the immune system, the researchers wrote Friday in the journal Science. Complement system proteins work alongside antibodies, surveilling the bloodstream for infections.

The findings could potentially help physicians diagnose long Covid by looking for differences in complement protein activity. And down the line, the research “will hopefully pave the way for further studies to try and develop therapies for what is, at the moment, pretty much an impossible thing to treat,” Aran Singanayagam, a respiratory physician at Imperial College London who did not contribute to the findings, tells Nature News’ Miryam Naddaf.

Still, the findings will need to be validated with larger studies that test patients farther along in their illness, the authors note.

Long Covid is defined by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) as effects that persist or appear four or more weeks after first becoming infected with the virus that causes Covid-19. At least 65 million people globally are thought to have long Covid, per a January 2023 study, and it has been tied to more than 200 symptoms that vary widely, including fatigue, shortness of breath, chest pain, headaches, brain fog, depression or anxiety, sleep problems, diarrhea, rashes and joint or muscle pain.

While long Covid most commonly develops in people who have had a severe case of Covid-19, anyone infected with the virus can develop the condition, per the CDC. People who are not vaccinated may also have a higher risk of facing lingering symptoms.

---- For the study, the researchers followed 39 people without Covid-19 and 113 people with Covid-19. After six months, 40 of the infected patients had developed long Covid. The researchers took 268 blood samples from participants and measured more than 6,500 proteins.

Patients with long Covid showed increased activation of the complement system, which targets pathogens and damaged cells. When it’s too active, this system can also damage healthy cells, writes Stat News’ Elizabeth Cooney. This heightened activity appeared when the long Covid patients were first infected, as well as during a follow-up after six months.

Other recent research, which has yet to be peer reviewed, also found a link between the complement system and long Covid, according to MIT Technology Review’s Cassandra Willyard.

In the new study, patients with long Covid had lower levels of a protein that helps prevent blood clots and higher levels of proteins tied to clot formation, writes Nature News.

More

Scientists Find Indicators in Blood Linked to Long Covid, Hinting at Future Treatments | Smart News| Smithsonian Magazine

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Fast-charging lithium battery seeks to eliminate 'range anxiety'

Date:  January 24, 2024  Source:  Cornell University

Summary:  Engineers have created a new lithium battery that can charge in under five minutes -- faster than any such battery on the market -- while maintaining stable performance over extended cycles of charging and discharging.

Cornell University engineers have created a new lithium battery that can charge in under five minutes -- faster than any such battery on the market -- while maintaining stable performance over extended cycles of charging and discharging.

The breakthrough could alleviate "range anxiety" among drivers who worry electric vehicles cannot travel long distances without a time-consuming recharge.

"Range anxiety is a greater barrier to electrification in transportation than any of the other barriers, like cost and capability of batteries, and we have identified a pathway to eliminate it using rational electrode designs," said Lynden Archer, professor of engineering and dean of Cornell's College of Engineering, who oversaw the project.

"If you can charge an EV battery in five minutes, I mean, gosh, you don't need to have a battery that's big enough for a 300-mile range. You can settle for less, which could reduce the cost of EVs, enabling wider adoption."

The team's paper, "Fast-Charge, Long-Duration Storage in Lithium Batteries," published in Joule. The lead author is Shuo Jin, a doctoral student in chemical and biomolecular engineering.

Lithium-ion batteries are among the most popular means of powering electric vehicles and smartphones.

The batteries are lightweight, reliable and relatively energy-efficient.

However, they take hours to charge, and lack the capacity to handle large surges of current.

The researchers pinpointed indium as an exceptionally promising material for fast-charging batteries.

Indium is a soft metal, mostly used to make indium tin oxide coatings for touch-screen displays and solar panels.

The new study shows indium has two crucial characteristics as a battery anode: an extremely low migration energy barrier, which sets the rate at which ions diffuse in the solid state; and a modest exchange current density, which is related to the rate at which ions are reduced in the anode.

The combination of those qualities -- rapid diffusion and slow surface reaction kinetics -- is essential for fast charging and long-duration storage.

More

Fast-charging lithium battery seeks to eliminate 'range anxiety' | ScienceDaily

Another weekend and an interesting weekend depending on the decision of the International Court of Justice later today. Have a great weekend everyone.

“I sometimes get the impression that many U.S. media outlets work according to a principle which was common in the Soviet Union. Back then, people used to joke that the newspaper Pravda [Truth] had no truth in it, and the Izvestia [News] paper has no news in it. I get the impression that many U.S. media operate in the same way.”

Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov. May 2017. 

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