Thursday, 25 January 2024

The Best Laid Plans Gang Aft Agley.

Baltic Dry Index. 1507 +34           Brent Crude  80.43

Spot Gold 2015                  US 2 Year Yield 4.34 +0.03

Bank for Emerging Economies

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Our strong mandate and potential put us in a unique position to contribute to global growth and development.

About NDB - New Development Bank

In the stock casinos, it’s still bubble on. In the reality of the global economy, it’s war, slowing commercial activity, China and Europe leading the world into the next recession. Of concern, crude oi prices are rising again.

In global politics, 2024 the year of the Great Generational change except in the USA, where an 81 year old will attempt to cling on to power, challenged by a mere 77 year old. Even Hollywood couldn’t make this up.

A Great Crash lies ahead.


China and Hong Kong stocks lead gains in Asia as markets reverse course by afternoon trading

UPDATED THU, JAN 25 2024 12:36 AM EST

China and Hong Kong stocks were firmly higher Thursday, leading gains in Asia-Pacific markets after the People’s Bank of China said it would cut reserve requirements for the country’s lenders.

The central bank announced it would reduce the amount of funds its banks are required to hold as reserves early next month in a bid to boost its struggling economy.

Reserve ratio requirements for banks will be cut by 50 basis points from Feb. 5, which will provide 1 trillion yuan ($139.8 billion) in long-term capital, according to PBOC governor Pan Gongsheng.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index index reversed losses to jump 1.9%, while China’s CSI 300 rose 1.57%.

Shares of EV makers fell, with Nio down 4.7%, Li Auto down 1.6% and BYD sliding 1%. LG Display led declines in Tesla suppliers, down 3%.

Tesla warned that vehicle volume growth in 2024 “may be notably lower” than last year.

China’s Shenzhen Composite index also reversed declines to rise 1.7%.

South Korea’s GDP grew 2.2% year on year in the fourth quarter and 0.6% compared with the previous quarter, beating expectations from a Reuters poll of 2.1% and 0.5% growth, respectively.

Shares of electric vehicle makers and suppliers of Tesla in Asia-Pacific, however, fell after the U.S. automaker warned of bleak volume growth.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up 0.15% and the broad based Topix gained 0.11%, while South Korea’s Kospi was flat and the small-cap Kosdaq dropped 0.8%.

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 closed 0.48% higher at 7,555.40.

Overnight in the U.S., the S&P 500 rose Wednesday as Netflix led a broader rally among technology names, pushing the broader market to new heights. Netflix shares surged more than 10% after the streamer said its total subscriber count hit an all-time high of 260.8 million.

The broad-based index eked out a gain of 0.08% to clinch a new all-time closing high. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.36% helped by the tech rally. It was the fifth straight day of wins for both indexes.

In contrast, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.26%, to 37,806.39, dragged by Verizon and 3M a day after they reported earnings.

Asia markets live updates: PBOC cuts RRR, South Korea GDP, Tesla warns of volume growth (cnbc.com)

European markets head for a lower open ahead of ECB rate decision

UPDATED THU, JAN 25 2024 12:26 AM EST

European markets are heading for a lower open Thursday as investors prepare for the latest monetary policy decision from the European Central Bank.

The central bank is expected to hold interest rates at their current record high after its monetary policy meeting on Thursday. Markets are pricing in around a 60% probability of the first rate cut taking place in April, according to a Reuters analysis of LSEG data.

European markets traded higher Wednesday after euro zone composite services and manufacturing purchasing manager’s index (PMI) data indicated an uptick business activity in the single currency area, giving investors a boost ahead of the ECB’s meeting. Meanwhile, U.K. PMI figures rose in January to their highest level in seven months.

European markets live updates: stocks, news, ECB decision and earnings (cnbc.com)

S&P 500 futures are little changed as investors prepare for GDP report: Live updates

UPDATED WED, JAN 24 2024 8:01 PM EST

S&P 500 futures were little changed as investors readied for the fourth-quarter gross domestic product report.

Futures tied to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures flickered near the flat line. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures climbed 63 points, or 0.17%.

In after-hours action, electric vehicle maker Tesla slumped nearly 6% after the company missed fourth-quarter estimates on the top and bottom lines. The company warned that vehicle volume growth may be lower in 2024. Shares of IBM soared more than 8% after the technology company posted adjusted earnings and revenue that beat analysts’ predictions.

During regular trading Wednesday, a postearnings surge in Netflix shares helped carry the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite to a fifth winning day. The broad market index eked out a gain of 0.08% and posted a fresh record high, while the Nasdaq added 0.36%. The 30-stock Dow slid 0.26%.

“I’ve had very bullish outlooks for the market and I still have an S&P 500 target of 5,400 for the end of this year and 6,000 for the end of next year,” Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research said on CNBC’s “Closing Bell” on Wednesday. He cautioned, however, that the speed of the rise in stocks could mean equities are getting ahead of themselves in the short term.

“My concern is that we’ll get there all too fast and too soon,” he added.

On Thursday, investors will have an eye on fourth-quarter gross domestic product data, which is expected to show growth at a 2% seasonally adjusted annualized pace. That will reflect a slowing from the 4.9% reading in the third quarter. The results could be a key catalyst for stocks as investors try to glean details on the state of the economy heading into the new year.

More

Stock market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)

In China news, too little too late?

China’s central bank announces policy easing as it seeks to boost growth

PUBLISHED WED, JAN 24  2:51 AM EST

BEIJING — China pledged to reduce the amount of liquidity that its banks are required to hold as reserves early next month in its bid to boost its struggling economy.

Reserve ratio requirements for banks will be cut by 50 basis points from Feb. 5, which will provide 1 trillion yuan ($139.8 billion) in long-term capital, Pan Gongsheng, the People’s Bank of China governor, said at a press conference in Beijing Wednesday.

This is the first reduction in reserve requirements this year, after two cuts last year. The PBOC also said Wednesday there’s room for further monetary policy easing. Reducing the reserve requirements that banks must maintain will increase the capacity for lenders to extend loans and spur spending in the broader economy.

Data released last week showed the world’s second-largest economy grew 5.2% in 2023, broadly in line with official projections. Its fourth-quarter GDP print also stood at 5.2%, but fell just shy of economists’ median estimates.

Its post-Covid recovery has been lackluster, with China’s top leaders warning that recovery will be “tortuous.”

Beijing is seeking to bolster growth in a targeted manner, while engineering a deleveraging of its once-bloated real estate sector, with some of its largest real estate developers facing serious debt problems. This has intensified financial risks and roiled consumer confidence.

China vowed Monday to “strengthen the market’s inherent stability” amid a rout in the country’s onshore and offshore stock markets.

China's PBOC announces RRR cut as it seeks to boost growth (cnbc.com)

Finally, EUSSR news. Germany and France do their best to lead the rest into recession. Holland spots a coming problem.

German train drivers ramp up pressure with longest strike yet

BERLIN, Jan 24 (Reuters) - German train drivers walked off the job again on Wednesday in what is set to be Germany's longest-ever rail strike, spelling more headaches for commuters with scant signs of a return to the negotiating table on the horizon.

The strike, which began at 2 am (0100 GMT) on Wednesday and is set to last until Monday evening, is the fourth round of industrial action in the GDL union's dispute with state-owned Deutsche Bahn and comes just two weeks after a previous strike ground national rail traffic to a near halt for three days.

A spokesperson for the national rail operator spoke of renewed "massive restrictions" across the country.

"We believe you have to come to the table, you have to find compromises. That is the only way," the spokesperson told reporters, pointing to the six-day strike's "massive impact on the economy".

Drivers in rail freight are holding a simultaneous strike.

GDL leader Claus Weselsky told broadcaster ARD that he was ready to compromise in the dispute over pay and working hours, but said Deutsche Bahn's offers didn't go far enough.

"We have to strike longer and harder because the railway management is resistant to advice," he said.

German train drivers ramp up pressure with longest strike yet | Reuters

French farming protests could target Paris, union chief says

PARIS, Jan 24 (Reuters) - Protests by French farmers demanding better working and living conditions could intensify and road blockades could target Paris, the head of the country's biggest farming union said on Wednesday.

"I am not ruling out any option," Arnaud Rousseau, the head of the FNSEA farming union, said when asked by France 2 TV if the protests could disrupt the Paris region.

The protests, heading into a second week after spilling over from neighbouring countries such as Germany, come as campaigning for European Union elections gathers pace. The unrest is the first major challenge for new Prime Minister Gabriel Attal.

The protests have blocked many important transport networks in southern France this week, and there have been signs that they are spreading.

French farming protests could target Paris, union chief says | Reuters

Electricity grid capacity shortage now threatens households

January 23, 2024

The shortage of electricity grid capacity threatens to be an increasing problem for households as well as industry and new investment is needed to stop power cuts, according to an analysis by the economic affairs ministry.

The growth in the number of heat pumps, electric cars and solar panels could, in a worst case scenario, lead to problems for 1.5 million households by 2030, climate minister Rob Jetten told MPs in a briefing.

That figure is based on current grid capacity and planned investments should reduce the number of problem households by some 75%. Nevertheless, more needs to be done to make sure the grid is future proof, the analysis shows.

In particular, better estimates of future demand need to be worked out – such as how many solar panels a neighbourhood is likely to have and what electric car use is expected to be. 

Network managers also need better real time information about use in a given area so that, for example, households could be asked to remove their electric cars from the charger at times of shortages or to only use their washing machines at night, Jetten said.

RTL Nieuws reported on Monday that Utrecht plans to reduce the capacity of public electric car charging stations between 4 pm and 8 pm, when domestic demand is at its height. 

The plan, local council executive Lot van Hooijdonk said, is annoying, but unavoidable. “The time for unlimited demand and supply is over,” she said. 

“Major users have not been able to connect to the grid for several years now and we are close to the point where households too have to deal with this,” she said. “We have to choose who gets space on the grid and at what price, because this shortage will be with us in the coming years.”

Electricity grid capacity shortage now threatens households - DutchNews.nl

The best-laid schemes o' mice an' men, Gang aft a-gley, And leave us nought but grief and pain, For promised joy.

 

Robert Burns. To a Mouse.

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

European, US retailers absorb Red Sea shock, wary of hiking prices

By Helen Reid 

LONDON, Jan 24 (Reuters) - Carrying more stock, switching to suppliers nearer to consumers and reducing dependence on China are tactics European and U.S. retailers used to build more resilient supply chains following disruptions during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Faced now with transport delays of two weeks or more as cargo ships are rerouted from the Red Sea, they have limited financial wiggle room to splurge on workarounds like air freight that would get products into stores faster.

"If supply chain resilience means paying more for your goods, then that isn't going to wash," said Matt Clark, who leads the EMEA retail practice at consultancy AlixPartners in London.

Retailers' "need to drive profitability is trumping the intent around supply chain resilience", he added.

Some fashion retailers are working around the Red Sea by using sea-air freight, which involves shipping products to Dubai and then flying them from there, but they are being highly selective.

Air freighting goods is around 10 to 12 times more expensive than shipping by sea, according to Sunandan Ray, CEO of U.S.-based Unique Logistics. For budget fashion retailer Primark, air freight would not be economical, the finance director at parent company Associated British Foods (ABF.L), opens new tab said on Tuesday.

Clothing and sportswear retailers also want to avoid overstocking, having only just recovered from a glut that forced them to sell products at a discount.

Sports equipment and apparel wholesaler Intersport Deutschland has stocked up over the past weeks to manage the expected two-week delays caused by ships rerouting from the Red Sea, Chief Financial Officer Thomas Storck said in an interview.

But overall, the company's inventory level is significantly lower than a year ago, he said. That's a result of warehouse investments that have improved its ability to get products to more than 1,400 independent Intersport stores in Germany faster.

Intersport Deutschland plans to absorb the higher transport costs rather than passing them on to store owners or consumers through higher prices.

Budget furniture manufacturer Inter IKEA also said that for now, its pricing planning remains unchanged despite the Red Sea disruption.

One way retailers are trying to account for the cost increase and avoid running out of stock is by doing less discounting than is usual for this time of year.

In the United States, retailers' discounts have averaged 39% so far in January, down from 41% a year ago according to data from LSEG and Centric Market Intelligence.

More

European, US retailers absorb Red Sea shock, wary of hiking prices | Reuters

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

 

Not enough evidence of Covid vaccine link to Long Covid: Lareb

January 24, 2024

The Dutch laboratory which investigates the side effects of medicines says there is not enough evidence of a link between coronavirus vaccines and symptoms that are similar to Long Covid and is recommending further research.

By last August, the lab had received 2,282 reports of long-lasting side effects in people who were vaccinated against coronavirus, of which 78 involved symptoms which are “like those of Long Covid”.

“Like Long Covid, these were very diverse” and included breathlessness, tiredness, chest pains, dizziness, muscle ache and brain fog, Lareb said in a new report, published on Wednesday.

In total 41 of the 78 patients underwent medical checks and 16 people self-diagnosed their complaints. Eleven people were diagnosed as having Long Covid and three chronic fatigue syndrome.

However, the lack of medical research on a large number of the patients means it is impossible to say if their symptoms could have other causes, such as an actual coronavirus diagnosis, Lareb said. In addition, 39 of the patients had previously had coronavirus.

“A causal relationship with Covid-19 vaccination cannot be established since potential alternative causes could not be excluded,” Lareb said. “Further epidemiological, clinical and immunological research is needed.”

Meanwhile, the health ministry said on Wednesday that just 425 care workers with Long Covid have been awarded €15,000 in extra financial support, even though 806 had registered for the cash.

In total, 340 claims were rejected because they were made by people who did not fit the criteria, 37 claims were made too late, and 40 are still being considered, health minister Conny Helder told MPs in an update. The government had expected around 1,000 claims.

Healthcare workers accounted for a high proportion of infections in the first wave of coronavirus in the spring of 2020, when they were denied proper PPE and exempted from many of the quarantine restrictions so they could keep working.

Not enough evidence of Covid vaccine link to Long Covid: Lareb - DutchNews.nl

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Battery to store electricity for 90,000 homes

January 24, 2024

A facility to store electricity is being built near Buxton to take pressure off the National Grid.

It will store surplus electricity generated from green sources like wind turbines and feed it back into the grid when demand is high.

The Buxton Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) will have the capacity to store enough energy to power 90,000 homes for two hours.

Atlantic Green is building the facility at Waterswallows and it is expected to be fully functional by May.

'Greener and more sustainable'

Managing Director Nick Bradford said if surplus electricity was not stored then renewable sources might need to be turned off or have their output reduced.

He said: "You then have to look at other sources of generation in the UK which might not be so green.

"The Buxton BESS Project will contribute to improving grid stability and pave the way for a greener and more sustainable energy future.

"We take pride in contributing to Derbyshire's efforts in tackling climate challenges and supporting the UK in reaching its net-zero targets, ensuring energy security for the future.”

As more power comes from wind and solar, the need for these batteries and similar storage sites is expected to grow.

Atlantic Green Project Manager Sam Currie said: "The battery energy storage market in the UK and globally is growing.

"We've also got sites cropping up where you have got a core location. So you will have wind farms or solar farms for example and there will be a battery farm put alongside them to store the green energy that is produced."

Buxton's big battery to store electricity for 90,000 homes - BBC News

Now's the day and now's the hour.

Robert Burns. 

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