Trump v Xi. Rain or No Rain?

Baltic Dry Index. 1742 -50  Brent Crude 43.05

Spot Gold 1807

Coronavirus Cases 15/7/20 World 13,418,382

Deaths 579,457

July 15:

St. Swithin's day, if thou dost rain, For forty days it will remain;

St. Swithin's day, if thou be fair, For forty days 'twill rain nae mair.

So far, so good, no rain.

Today’s early news is all about the new political war unfolding between America and China. Not that it’s interfering with the gambling going on in the central bankster fueled stock casinos.

I suspect that Trump’s war on China will just continue to get worse the worse the polls get on his prospects for re-election.

Of course, this new cold war on China and China’s retaliation, when it happens,  will act as a big drag on the already in difficulty global economy. Jobs will be lost in America and China, costs of Chinese goods will rise for US consumers. It will take the global economy longer to overcome the effects of the still out of control global coronavirus crisis.

Our eventual “new normal” will be a lower new normal for many, than if relations with China were more 2016.

But with neither President Xi or President Trump likely to back down on anything, I suspect the global economy is in for a very rough time out until early November.

Below, stocks party on like its January 2020. I think I know how Noah felt as he was building his ark and assembling all those dangerous animals.

Asian shares pare gains as U.S.-China tensions intensify

July 15, 2020 / 12:40 AM

SYDNEY (Reuters) - Asian shares pared gains on Wednesday, led by losses in Chinese stocks, after Beijing vowed retaliatory sanctions against the United States, while the euro rose to a four-month high on the prospect of stimulus ahead of a crucial EU summit.

---- MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS was last up 0.14%, after rising over 1% earlier in the session. 

Chinese shares were deep in red, with the blue-chip CSI300 index .CSI300 off 1% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng index .HSI down 0.6%.

Japan's Nikkei .N225 and Australia's benchmark index remained upbeat though, and were up 1.4% and 1%, respectively.

E-mini futures for the S&P 500 EScv1 gave back some of their gains but were still up 0.7%.

---- Overnight risk appetite was boosted by Moderna Inc’s (MRNA.O) experimental vaccine for COVID-19 which showed it was safe and provoked immune responses in all 45 healthy volunteers in an early-stage study.

On Tuesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average .DJI rose over 2%, while the S&P 500 .SPX gained 1.34% and the Nasdaq Composite .IXIC climbed 0.94%.

Stocks climbed despite rising Sino-U.S. tensions and three U.S. states reporting new record daily deaths from the pandemic.

“Markets have traded sideways for over a month as bulls and bears move their bishops and horses out on the chess board and then hoard them back in when the other side makes a move. The net result has been a prolonged stalemate,” said Perpetual analyst Matthew Sherwood.

“Forward-looking assumptions about COVID-19 treatments and vaccine offset what is happening today in terms of rising case numbers and an unwinding or stalling of re-opening plans.”

The dollar was on the defensive, particularly against risk-sensitive currencies, following news of progress in vaccine development.

More

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-global-markets/asian-shares-pare-gains-as-u-s-china-tensions-intensify-idUKKCN24F31G?il=0

China vows retaliation after Trump ends preferential status for Hong Kong

July 14, 2020 / 8:38 PM

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Donald Trump on Tuesday ordered an end to Hong Kong’s special status under U.S. law to punish China for what he called “oppressive actions” against the former British colony, prompting Beijing to warn of retaliatory sanctions.

Citing China’s decision to enact a new national security law for Hong Kong, Trump signed an executive order that he said would end the preferential economic treatment for the city. 

“No special privileges, no special economic treatment and no export of sensitive technologies,” he told a news conference.

Acting on a Tuesday deadline, he also signed a bill approved by the U.S. Congress to penalize banks doing business with Chinese officials who implement the new security law.

----Under the executive order, U.S. property would be blocked of any person determined to be responsible for or complicit in “actions or policies that undermine democratic processes or institutions in Hong Kong,” according to the text of the document released by the White House.

It also directs officials to “revoke license exceptions for exports to Hong Kong,” and includes revoking special treatment for Hong Kong passport holders.

China’s foreign ministry said on Wednesday Beijing will impose retaliatory sanctions against U.S. individuals and entities in response to the law targeting banks, though the statement released through state media did not reference the executive order.

“Hong Kong affairs are purely China’s internal affairs and no foreign country has the right to interfere,” the ministry said.

---- U.S. relations with China have already been strained over the global coronavirus pandemic, China’s military buildup in the South China Sea, its treatment of Uighur Muslims and massive trade surpluses.

Trump’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic has raised doubts about whether he can win re-election on Nov. 3 amid a surge of new infections. He has attempted to deflect blame onto China.

“Make no mistake. We hold China fully responsible for concealing the virus and unleashing it upon the world. They could have stopped it, they should have stopped it. It would have been very easy to do at the source, when it happened,” he said.

Asked if he planned to talk to Chinese President Xi Jinping, Trump said: “I have no plans to speak to him.”

More

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-hongkong-security-trump/china-vows-retaliation-after-trump-ends-preferential-status-for-hong-kong-idUKKCN24F2N2

China warns it will protect its companies if U.S. comes after them on human rights

Published: July 14, 2020 at 11:42 p.m. ET

BEIJING — China’s government has warned it will protect Chinese companies after Washington said enterprises may face legal trouble if they help carry out abuses in the Muslim northwestern region of Xinjiang.

The U.S. warning came amid mounting tension with Beijing over human rights, trade and Hong Kong. It cited complaints of abuses by the ruling Communist Party against ethnic Muslims including mass detention and forced labor.

The Commerce Ministry accused the U.S. government of meddling in China’s affairs. It said 

Washington was misusing complaints about human rights to “suppress Chinese companies.”

“This is bad for China, bad for the United States and bad for the whole world,” said a ministry statement.

“China strongly urges the U.S. to stop its bad acts,” the ministry said. “China will take necessary measures to resolutely safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese enterprises.”

The U.S. warning issued July 1 said companies that handle goods made by forced labor or supply technology that might be used in labor camps or for surveillance might face unspecified “reputational, economic and legal risks.”

more

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-warns-it-will-protect-its-companies-if-us-comes-after-them-on-human-rights-2020-07-14?mod=mw_latestnews

Experts Say China Hid Spyware in Mandatory Tax Software

July 14, 2020

Any company doing business in China is required to file for taxes using software called Golden Tax Invoicing. And now, security researchers have an idea why the Chinese government likes it so much: they say it’s riddled with spyware.

Installing Golden Tax Invoicing infects computers with spyware called GoldenHelper, Ars Technica reports, which essentially grants backdoor access into the system. First revealed by the cybersecurity firm Trustwave, the sophisticated malware campaign reveals a troublingly-widespread level of digital infiltration.

Trustwave revealed the Golden Tax spyware just three weeks after uncovering a similar malware campaign, GoldenSpy, which also hid in Golden Tax, Ars reports. The two programs are functionally similar and sneak behind a computer’s security systems using the same mechanisms.

GoldenSpy seemed to disappear after it was outed. But it’s not clear whether the new spyware was meant to replace it or if it had already existed alongside GoldenSpy.

Trustwave’s investigation is still ongoing: Ars reports that the company’s researchers have yet to find GoldenHelper’s actual payload, which they say is called “taxver.exe.”

So that means that it’s not entirely clear what information it can take from an infected system — only that a big problem is out there.

https://futurism.com/the-byte/china-hid-spyware-mandatory-tax-software?mc_eid=f4cd094325&mc_cid=ccfe3568c9

In other news, US manufacturing orders slump in May. The UK economy shows no sign of a “V” shaped recovery. In fact, very little sign of recovery at all. The best we can hope for today, is that it doesn’t rain.

U.S. Manufacturing Technology Orders Down in May

Year to date, orders down 31 percent compared to same period in 2019.

July 13, 2020

Eric Smith

U.S. manufacturing technology orders totaled $219.4 million in May, down 44.5 compared with the same month a year ago, according to new data from the U.S. Manufacturing Technology Orders (USMTO) report released by AMT – The Association for Manufacturing Technology.

New orders were 5.5% lower than in April. Year to date, total orders through May were $1.3 billion, 31% lower than YTD 2019 orders.

“We had predicted that growth in the MT sector would be flat in the first half of 2020; however, it is down about 30% due to the impact of the pandemic on the global manufacturing industry,” said Douglas K. Woods, president of AMT. “While the aerospace, defense, housing, and infrastructure sectors did better in May, growth has been uneven across industries.

The automobile sector is down, and spending on medical supplies has leveled off. Significantly, very high business and consumer savings rates indicate a lack of confidence in the economy, and industry economic forecasters predict the manufacturing industry will be down about 50% before it begins to rebound in the last quarter of this year or in early 2021.”

https://www.mdm.com/articles/41164-us-manufacturing-technology-orders-down-in-may

UK economy begins tepid recovery in May after record slump

July 14, 2020 / 7:21 AM

LONDON (Reuters) - Britain’s economy took a first step on the long road to recovery from the COVID-19 crisis in May, as activity began to pick up after lockdown restrictions began to ease.

Gross domestic product rose by 1.8% in May after slumping by a record 20.3% in April, Britain’s first full month of lockdown, the Office for National Statistics said. This was a smaller rise than the average 5.5% increase forecast in a Reuters poll of economists.

Over the three months to May, the economy shrank by 19.1% and compared with a year ago it is 24.0% smaller.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-britain-economy/uk-economy-begins-tepid-recovery-in-may-after-record-slump-idUKKCN24F0IR?feedType=nl&feedName=ukmorningdigest&utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=2018%20Template:%20UK%20MORNING%20DIGEST%202020-07-14&utm_term=NEW:%20UK%20Morning%20Digest

UK economy could shrink 14% this year, budget forecasters say

July 14, 2020 / 9:51 AM

LONDON (Reuters) - Britain’s economy could shrink by more than 14% this year if there is lasting damage from the coronavirus, a scenario that would push government borrowing to nearly half a trillion dollars, budget forecasters said on Tuesday.

The Office for Budget Responsibility, whose projections are used by the government, said tax hikes or spending cuts would probably be needed to fix the huge hole in the public finances.

“The UK is on track to record the largest decline in annual GDP for 300 years, with output falling by more than 10% in 2020 in all three scenarios,” the OBR said in a report.

“This delivers an unprecedented peacetime rise in borrowing this year to between 13% and 21% of GDP, lifting debt above 100% of GDP in all but the upside scenario.”

The central scenario, with only moderate long-term damage, showed a 12.4% fall in output, with a 14.3% decline if the scarring is deeper.

In the downside scenario borrowing in the current financial year could hit 391 billion pounds ($490 billion), and in the upside one 263 billion pounds, with output falling 10.6%.

Last month, the International Monetary Fund said Britain’s economy looks set to shrink by more than 10% this year.

More

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-britain-borrowing/uk-economy-could-shrink-14-this-year-budget-forecasters-say-idUKKCN24F0UO

There may be good policy in retaliations of this kind, when there is a probability that they will procure the repeal of the high duties or prohibitions complained of. The recovery of a great foreign market will generally more than compensate the transitory inconveniency of paying dearer during a short time for some sorts of goods.

To judge whether such retaliations are likely to produce such an effect, does not, perhaps, belong so much to the science of a legislator, whose deliberations ought to be governed by general principles which are always the same, as to the skill of that insidious and crafty animal, vulgarly called a statesman or politician, whose councils are directed by the momentary fluctuations of affairs.

When there is no probability that any such repeal can be procured, it seems a bad method of compensating the injury done to certain classes of our people, to do another injury ourselves, not only to those classes, but to almost all the other classes of them.

Adam Smith. The Wealth of Nations, 1776.

Covid-19 Corner                       

Though hopefully, we are passing/have passed the peak of new cases, at least of the first SARS-CoV-2 outbreak, this section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

Japan traces new coronavirus outbreak linked to Tokyo theatre

July 14, 2020 / 4:27 AM

TOKYO (Reuters) - Tokyo health officials appealed on Tuesday for more than 800 theatregoers to get tested for the novel coronavirus after a production starring Japanese boy-band members was found to be the source of at least 20 cases.

As the number of virus infections continues to rise in Japan’s capital city, the Tokyo government said it was focussing on a 190-seat theatre in the Shinjuku entertainment district, where infections have also been traced to cabaret clubs.

Japan is pushing ahead with opening up parts of the country, with plans to reopen a runway at one of the country’s biggest airports, even as infections persist in major cities, rural areas and U.S. military bases.

The latest cluster has been traced to Theatre Moliere, near Tokyo’s red-light district, which staged a play for six days starring mainly up-and-coming boy-band members earlier this month.

The Tokyo government said it learned of the first infection among a cast member on July 6, after which testing found 20 related cases by late Monday. It called on all audience members who attended the performance to get tested.

The producers of the play, “Werewolf”, released a statement on Monday also asking audience members to seek health advice.

“Following a large number of infections seen among our spectators, we have been informed that all 800 spectators who came to see the performance have been identified as high-risk contacts,” Rise Communications said on its website.

As Tokyo struggles to contain virus infections, travel routes to and from the city continue to open up. Narita International Airport, one of the two main airports serving the capital, is planning to re-open its second runway ahead of a public holiday next week, public broadcaster NHK reported.

Tokyo reported 119 new cases of coronavirus infections on Monday following a four-day run when the daily tally exceeded 200. Overall, Japan has reported around 23,000 infections, and nearly 1,000 related deaths.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-japan/japan-traces-new-coronavirus-outbreak-linked-to-tokyo-theatre-idUKKCN24F0AR

U.S. base on Japan's Okinawa confirms 36 more coronavirus cases - Kyodo

July 15, 2020 / 5:33 AM

TOKYO (Reuters) - Authorities have confirmed 36 more coronavirus infections at Camp Hansen on Japan’s Okinawa, taking to 136 the tally at U.S. military bases on the island, Kyodo News said on Wednesday.

The outbreak emerged at the weekend, provoking the anger of the prefecture’s governor, who has called into question the U.S. military’s virus prevention measures.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-japan-okinawa/u-s-base-on-japans-okinawa-confirms-36-more-coronavirus-cases-kyodo-idUKKCN24G0EY?il=0

COVID-19 may trigger high blood sugar, raising death risk, study shows

July 13, 2020 / 4:54 PM

Bodies stressed by severe COVID-19 could produce abnormally high blood sugar levels, even in people without diagnosed diabetes. And that appears tied to a doubling of the odds of dying from COVID-19, Chinese researchers report.

High blood sugar (glucose) levels, measured at the time of admission to the hospital, were also linked to more severe disease and complications, according to researchers led by Dr. Yang Jin, of the Union Hospital and Tongji Medical College, in Wuhan, China. Wuhan was the originating epicenter of the global pandemic of COVID-19.

As the researchers explained, diabetes has long been known to greatly raise the odds for severe and even fatal COVID-19 in people infected with the new coronavirus.

But what about the effect of high blood sugar levels, even in people who don't have a diabetes diagnosis?

To find out, Jin's group looked over the medical records of more than 600 consecutive patients treated at two Wuhan hospitals for nearly a month in January and February. Patients averaged 59 years of age.

The researchers looked especially at each patient's blood sugar readings, the severity of their COVID-19-linked pneumonia, and patient outcomes in terms of illness severity and death. None of the patients had been diagnosed with diabetes.

A total of 114 patients died in the hospital from their illness, Jin's team said. Men were 75 percent more likely to die than women.

A high level of fasting blood glucose was found to be highly predictive of death, the researchers reported July 10 in the journal Diabetologia.

That held true "regardless of whether the patient has [COVID-19-linked] pneumonia that is more or less severe," the team said -- suggesting that the effect of high blood sugar on the death risk is independent of just how severe the patient's respiratory illness might be.

Of the total patient group, about one-third (29 percent) fell into a category of very high fasting blood glucose -- so high that, if consistent over time, these patients would be diagnosed with having type 2 diabetes. Another 17 percent had levels that were similar to people in "pre-diabetes."

More
https://www.upi.com/Health_News/2020/07/13/COVID-19-may-trigger-high-blood-sugar-raising-death-risk-study-shows/8641594659604/

This Band-Aid-Like Patch Could Detect Early COVID-19 Symptoms

Northwestern University scientist John Rogers has developed a wearable that adheres to the throat and relays data to a physician

smithsonianmag.com  July 14, 2020 8:00AM

Humans are almost constantly connected to devices and electronics that generate a significant amount of data about who they are and what they do. Many commercially available products like Fitbits, Garmin trackers, Apple watches and other smartwatches are designed to help users take control of their health, and tailor activities to their lifestyle. Even something as unobtrusive to wear as a ring can collect data on sleep patterns, body temperature, heart rate variability, calorie burn, and steps, and even go a step beyond to analyze these biostatistics and package the information so it can be read on a user’s smartphone. Similar, less common but more precise monitoring devices are also being used at clinics and hospitals to help health care providers individualize treatments for a range of conditions from cardiac care to stroke rehabilitation.

Researchers working to contain COVID-19 are increasingly turning to these sleek new wearables for a diagnostic solution. But there is some debate about the best way to do so. Can commercially available devices be leveraged as a tool, or would clinical-grade wearables be more effective?

In April, the Journal of the American Medical Association identified fever, cough and shortness of breath as primary symptoms in both positive and false negative COVID-19 cases. Around the same time, medical thought leaders in the Chicago area approached John Rogers, the director of Northwestern University’s Querrey Simpson Institute for Bioelectronics. Rogers and his team are known for developing next-generation, flexible, wearable devices with clinical-grade monitoring capability that mount on relevant body areas. The patches look and feel much like a Band-Aid, but contain biosensors, onboard memory, data processing and wireless transmission features.

The quality of data the devices can capture is high enough that they can reliably be used in settings and on patients with limited hospital access to run specialty-care tests like electrocardiograms (EKGs). Others reduce the need for complicated machines used to monitor premature infants in intensive care units. For example, the Rogers Research Group works in partnership with the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation to deploy devices in India, Pakistan and several areas throughout Africa that capture information about maternal and newborn health.

“We were asked whether we could adapt, modify and customize those technologies to COVID-19 patients and specific symptoms associated with that disease,” says Rogers.
More
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/innovation/band-aid-patch-could-detect-early-covid-19-symptoms-180975301/?utm_source=smithsoniandaily&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20200714-daily-responsive&spMailingID=42955238&spUserID=NjUwNDIzNTUzNDE0S0&spJobID=1801077983&spReportId=MTgwMTA3Nzk4MwS2

Some useful Covid links.

Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Rt Covid-19

https://rt.live/

Covid19info.live

https://wuflu.live/

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy mankind’s future from the 21^st century onwards.

2D semiconductors found to be close-to-ideal fractional quantum hall platform

Date: July 6, 2020

Source: Columbia University School of Engineering and Applied Science

Summary: Researchers report that they have observed a quantum fluid known as the fractional quantum Hall states (FQHS), one of the most delicate phases of matter, for the first time in a monolayer 2D semiconductor. Their findings demonstrate the excellent intrinsic quality of 2D semiconductors and establish them as a unique test platform for future applications in quantum computing.

The study was published online today in Nature Nanotechnology.

"We were very surprised to observe this state in 2D semiconductors because it has generally been assumed that they are too dirty and disordered to host this effect," says Cory Dean, professor of physics at Columbia University. "Moreover, the FQHS sequence in our experiment reveals unexpected and interesting new behavior that we've never seen before, and in fact suggests that 2D semiconductors are close-to-ideal platforms to study FQHS further."

The fractional quantum Hall state is a collective phenomenon that comes about when researchers confine electrons to move in a thin two-dimensional plane, and subject them to large magnetic fields. 

First discovered in 1982, the fractional quantum Hall effect has been studied for more than 40 years, yet many fundamental questions still remain. One of the reasons for this is that the state is very fragile and appears in only the cleanest materials.

"Observation of the FQHS is therefore often viewed as a significant milestone for a 2D material -- one that only the very cleanest electronic systems have reached," notes Jim Hone, Wang Fong-Jen Professor of Mechanical Engineering at Columbia Engineering.

While graphene is the best known 2D material, a large group of similar materials have been identified over the past 10 years, all of which can be exfoliated down to a single layer thickness. One class of these materials is transition metal dichalcogenides (TMD), such as WSe2, the material used in this new study. Like graphene, they can be peeled to be atomically thin, but, unlike graphene, their properties under magnetic fields are much simpler. The challenge has been that the crystal quality of TMDs was not very good.

---- The two Columbia University laboratories -- the Dean Lab and the Hone Group -- worked in collaboration with the NIMS Japan, which supplied some of the materials, and Papic, whose group performed computational modelling of the experiments. Both Columbia labs are part of the university's Material Research Science and Engineering Center. This project also used clean room facilities at both the Columbia Nano Initiative and City College. Measurements at large magnetic fields were made at the National High Magnetic Field Laboratory, a user facility funded by the National Science Foundation and headquartered at Florida State University in Tallahassee, Fl.

Now that the researchers have very clean 2D semiconductors as well as an effective probe, they are exploring other interesting states that emerge from these 2D platforms.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/07/200706113944.htm?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+sciencedaily%2Fmatter_energy%2Fgraphene+%28Graphene+News+--+ScienceDaily%29

All the best stories in the world are but one story in reality - the story of escape. It is the only thing which interests us all and at all times, how to escape.

Walter Bagehot.

The Monthly Coppock Indicators finished June

DJIA: 25,813 -2 Down. NASDAQ: 10,059 +196 Up. SP500: 3,100 +75 Down.

The NASDAQ has remained up. The S&P and the DJIA still remain down despite the best efforts of the Fed to get them to go higher. The Dow has now gone negative.